Nationals Arm Race

Standard disclaimer; I do this post every year.  If you don’t play fantasy, you probably won’t care about the 3,000+ words contained herein.  You won’t hurt my feelings by not reading.  I’ll include a  jump so it doesn’t blow out your mobile reader.  Back to our regularly scheduled programming next week with final roster analysis once the last bench spots are announced.

Last year’s version of this post.

Because of the sheer number of players discussed, i’ll eschew my normal bolding of all names except those picked for my team so this post is more readable.

We’ve made some tweaks to our league this year from last: we’re still a 10-team, head to head by category league but have gone to 6×6; our extra categories are OPS and Losses.  Most of the league didn’t feel the need to go to a 6th round; the commissioner more or less demanded it for personal reasons.  We made some other tweaks related to total number of transactions (increased from 65->80), tweaked transactions during playoffs (max of 2, no other limits instead of having frozen rosters and arguments about who was really hurt in the absence of D/L trips) and moved up season’s end one week (which is what cost me the championship two years ago).

I’ve had a good run in fantasy baseball the last two years: after multiple years of being awful, in 2015 I lost (barely) in the final and last year I was 1st in the regular season by a fair margin before getting upset in the playoffs.  I feel like i’ve settled on a good strategy and have stuck with it.  My strategy generally has been:

• focus on hitters first.
• get at least two known quantity closers early (5th-7th rounds), and two more later on
• do not focus on Starters until at least the 8th round
• do not bother with 1B until later (there’s so much depth on waiver wire here)
• if you don’t get one of the 3 best Catchers, don’t bother til the last rounds, which is nearly guaranteed because I have no interest in drafting the top catchers as high as they’re going in ADP.
• don’t spend 1st or 2nd rounders on OFs unless you have to

I feel like I stuck to this strategy … but that I have a rather weaker team this year.  Last year I came out of the draft thinking I had a great team; not as much this year.  Read on for how the draft worked out.

---

I drafted 7th out of 10 spots.  Here’s my team in list form.  Round X: (Y) Name/Team/Pos where X is round number and Y is number overall.

Round 1: (7) Jose Altuve, Hou 2B
Round 2: (14) Josh Donaldson, Tor 3B
Round 3: (27) Xander Bogaerts, Bos SS
Round 4: (34) Starling Marte, Pit OF
Round 5: (47) Nelson Cruz, Sea OF
Round 6: (54) Christian Yelich, Mia OF
Round 7: (67) Zach Britton, Bal RP
Round 8: (74) Justin Verlander, Det SP
Round 9: (87) DJ LeMahieu, Col 2B
Round 10: (94) Hanley Ramirez, Bos 1B
Round 11: (107) Gerrit Cole, Pit SP
Round 12: (114) Cody Allen, Cle RP
Round 13: (127) Rick Porcello, Bos SP
Round 14: (134) Michael Fulmer, Det SP
Round 15: (147) Sam Dyson, Tex RP
Round 16: (154) Tony Watson, Pit RP
Round 17: (167) J.T. Realmuto, Mia C
Round 18: (174) Tanner Roark, Wsh SP
Round 19: (187) Marco Estrada, Tor SP
Round 20: (194) Robbie Ray, Ari SP
Round 21: (207) Taijuan Walker, Ari SP

---

Round by Round picks and analysis.

I’ll reference Average Draft Position (ADP) as listed at fantasypros.com and will reference  Yahoo 2016 and 2015 ranks throughout.  O-rank means Yahoo’s 2017 draft rank, BPA = Best Player available.

Round 1 (7th overall pick, O-rank of #5, 2016 rank of #8, ADP of #3); Jose Altuve, Hou 2B.  My 2nd round pick from last year; now among the fantasy elite.  When I found out I’d have the 7th pick, I looked at rankings and ADP and figured I’d be making a decision between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.  Harper got picked right ahead of me by a Nats homer, leaving me to decide between Altuve, Nolan Arenado (my last year #1 pick) and the aforementioned Machado.  I opted to go with Altuve for a couple main reasons: Altuve gets both homers and steals while Machado inexpicably is kept off the basepaths by Baltimore (zero steals last year).  And while I love Arenado, Altuve beats him in OBP and Steals, and they’re basically the same OPS.  I like the broader stats I get from Altuve and can make up the homers elsewhere.  As we’ll see, there’s 40-homer guys on the waiver wire at the end of this draft.  Based on ADP, you can’t ask for more by getting 3rd best player in the 7-slot.

Round 2: (14th overall pick, O-Rank of 10, 2016 ranked #2, ADP of #10) Josh Donaldson, Tor 3B.  I was kind of hoping to have Trea Turner fall to me here, but as the draft unfolded Donaldson was BPA easily left; there was a gap between him and the next highest ranked player (Charlie Blackmon).  So it was kind of a no-brainer; Donaldson was a monster last year (2nd best fantasy player only behind Mike Trout) and I got him 14th overall.  I’ll take that.  Plus, 3B is kind of a thin position this year; after the top 3-4 guys, there’s a gap … and then there’s a BIG gap.  So I’ll take one of the to 3B available right here.

Round 3: (27th overall, O-rank of 20, 2016 ranked 62, ADP of 26) Xander Bogaerts, Bos SS.  Again, BPA here and right in line with ADP.  A big steal by Yahoo ranking, but not by ADP.  I really, really wanted Corey Seager here but he got auto-picked two spots ahead of me, which became somewhat of a theme.  There was one auto-picked team that ended up several times with the player I wanted two spots ahead of me.  That was aggravating.  Nonetheless, Bogaerts was the 6th SS taken, and nobody taken after him was any SS that I would have been happy with, so I’m good.

At this point, through 3 rounds I have 2B, SS and 3B filled.  That’s great.  I’ve left the easiest positions to fill (OF and 1B) and have punted on Catcher as planned.

Round 4: (34th overall, O-rank 23, 2016 rank of 215, ADP rank of 25 ) Starling Marte, Pit OF.  All I wrote down here was, “why is he still available at 34 overall?”  I got him 10-12 picks later than I should have; he had 47 steals in a not-quite-full season last year and added in good OBP and some power.  I like my speed so far between Marte and Altuve.  I opted to go Marte instead of some top-end pitching options, all of which I have my doubts about.  John Lester and Jake Arrieta went on either side of Marte and both (to me) are question marks.  More and more i feel confident in my strategy of hitters over pitchers, because to me blowing a 4th round pick on a starter I don’t entirely trust is how I ended up in 9th place for a number of years running.

Round 5: (47th overall, O-rank of 30, 2016 #18, ADP of 36) Nelson Cruz, Sea OF.  So, I was choosing between several OF options here; Cruz, Yoenis Cespedes, Giancarlo Stanton.  I went with Cruz because he was much more clearly BPA for outfielders at this point, both by Yahoo and ESPN.  I know he’s aging … but he was a 2nd round talent last year and keeps on bashing.  I’ve had Stanton before and he is *always* hurt … Cespedes versus Cruz may be a coin-flip.  A bit of a risky pick since Cruz is primed to regress … we’ll see.

Round 6: (54th overall, O-rank of 52, 2016 #57, ADP of 53) Christian Yelich, Mia OF.  I was looking at either Yelich or Carlos Gonzalez here, and Justin Verlander was still sitting on the board.  The other players on the board here were 1B types who didn’t interest me in the 6th round; its still too early for closers so I bit on Yelich.  Not really a “steal” by any measure; he’s consistently ranked across the board.  He’s coming off a strong WBC, he’s still hitting in a solid lineup and provides a good balance of power and speed.  My third OF.

Round 7: (67th overall, O-rank of 94, 2016 13th ranked, ADP of 62) Zach Britton, Bal RP.  Aroldis Chapman got drafted late round 6 … and then the flood-gates were on.  I got Britton, who I had rated as the 3rd best closer as the 5th closer picked, so I’ll take that.  I know his 2016 season isn’t repeatable, but then again, he’s also pitching for a contender and should get more than his fair share of save opportunities.  I’m happy getting one of the three Tier 1 closers on my board.

Round 8: (74th overall, O-rank of 47, 2016 #28, ADP of 40) Justin Verlander, Det SP.  I don’t know why he’s still here.  ADP of 40, O-rank of 47 and I get him with the 74th pick.  I was considering him 20 picks ago, and he’s still sitting here, so I have to take him.  Great, great value.  I drafted Verlander as a throw-away pick last year and dumped him after 6 weeks … only to have him turn into one of the best starter in the league and who helped knock me out of the playoffs.  And he’s now my #1 starter.  I’m slightly worried … but I also can’t argue with the value pick here.

Round 9: (87th overall, O-Rank of 83, 2016 #38, ADP of 83) DJ LeMahieu, Col 2B.  Perhaps its strange for me to pick up a 2B utility player, but LeMahieu’s production speaks for itself.  .416 OBP which drastically increases his OPS and he scored 100 runs last  year; that’s a monster in 3 of the  6 categories.  Totally under-valued after a stellar 2016 (#38 ranked player in all of fantasy?).  And definitely a “sleeper” on multiple fantasy prep lists.  I’ll take it.  Worst case, I’ll work a trade to someone who doesn’t have any quality 2B for a starter or something else of value.  Was considering either Hanley Ramirez or Kris Davis here as well.

Round 10: (94th overall, O-rank of 59, 2016 rank #34, ADP of 76) Hanley Ramirez, Bos 1B.  Well, I couldn’t pass this up either.  Another guy just hanging out there round after round and at some point I had to take him.  I needed a 1B and he raked last year.  He was O-ranked on yahoo more than 2 rounds prior to LeMahieu …. couldn’t pass this up.  Plus, in a recurring theme, I still didn’t like the starters on the list here.

10 rounds in: i’ve got my entire offense (except for Catcher), One closer and one Starter.  Its time to start getting some pitching.  From here out all I’m getting are Starters, closers and a last-chance catcher.

Round 11: (107th overall, 82nd O-Rank, #655 in 2016, ADP of 96) Gerrit Cole, Pit SP.  Well, you could do worse than the Ace of a playoff-contending team.  Cole was awesome in 2015 and missed half of 2016.  If he returns to 2017 form this could be a steal.  He was by far the best available NL starter at this point, hence why I got him.

Round 12: (114th overall, #162 O-Rank, #65 in 2016, ADP of 109) Cody Allen, Cle RP.  I had Allen last year and he was solid.  There had been another mini-run on starters just prior to this and someone snapped up the starter I really wanted here (Rich Hill).  So I got my 2nd closer.  Some think Allen will lose out to Andrew Miller and I was going to hedge against that … and then the next round someone got Miller.  I may have to work a trade there.  Or not; as we’ll see at the end of hte draft there’s at least 3-4 named opening day closers on the waiver wire, shocking for this kind of league.

Round 13: (127th overall, #102 O-rank, #29 in 2016, ADP of 90) Rick Porcello, Bos SP.  Again, he’s just sitting there.  How is a Cy Young winner available in round 13?  He was the 29th ranked fantasy player just last year.  I had to take him.  I hate AL pitchers, I hate especially AL East pitchers because 4/5ths of the ballparks in that division are hitters’ parks, but Porcello manned up last year.

Round 14: (134th overall, #116 O-Rank, #118 in 2016, ADP of 130) Michael Fulmer, Det SP.  Not really a reach, but also not the steal by either ADP or ranking of these other guys.  I took him over both Cole Hamels and David Price.  I just don’t trust Price and Hamels in that stadium isn’t ideal for me either.

Round 15: (147th overall, #241 O-Rank, #68 in 2016, ADP of 165) Sam Dyson, Tex RP.  Another run on mid-tier closers and 3 closers that I would have preferred to have gotten went right ahead of me.  I grabbed Dyson, whose low ranks kind of astound me.  If he’s #68 last year and is still solidly the closer in Texas, a clear playoff-team, why is he so low?  I’ve got him as around the 18th best closer on the books, but he’s my 3rd closer on my roster.

Round 16: (154th overall, #241 O-Rank, #177 in 2016, ADP of 161) Tony Watson, Pit RP.  His 2016 ranking was way low because he was only the closer for 2 months … but in those 2 months he got 15 saves for a team that finished below .500.  Pittsburgh should be back in the thick of the NL Central, and Watson is clearly the closer.  I’m happy to have him as my 4th closer.

Round 17: (167th overall, 141 O-Rank, #647 in 2016, ADP of 135) J.T. Realmuto, Mia C.  I take a quick peek at the Catchers remaining and see that Realmuto might be a big find.  How many times to find a catcher who gets SBs?  Maybe I’ll take a D/L flier on Wilson Ramos later on in the season, but for now you can do worse than Realmuto.  For the 17th round I’m happy.  I mean, really, there’s only 4-5 good catchers and they’re at a premium.

So at this point, i’ve got my full offensive lineup and will get BPA for starters.  But its thin from here on out:

Round 18: (174th overall, 156 O-Rank, #98 in 2016, #142 ADP) Tanner Roark, Wsh SP.  I’m happy with the #3 starter on a NL playoff team.  My first and only National.  The problem with Roark is that he takes losses.  And he’s not a big K guy.  And I’m worried about his 2017 thanks to the fact that he sat on the WBC bench for most of March.  We’ll keep him on a short leash.  Performed like a 10th rounder last  year, yet here he is sitting there in the 18th round.  No respect, Mr Roark.  No Respect.

Round 19: (187th overall, 189 O-Rank, #163 in 2016, #192 ADP) Marco Estrada, Tor SP.  Not my best pick; he’s the kind of guy whose fantasy value is far less than his real value.  Still hard to believe that he was a 6yr MLFA who aged out of the nats farm system before becoming Toronto’s defacto Ace.  I don’t think he’ll be long for the roster; he may be first to go to pick up a flier on a 5th close.r

Round 20: (194th overall, 203 O-rank, #860 in 2016, #199 ADP) Robbie Ray, Ari SP.  All I could think about when I saw his name was how disparate his numbers were last year; 218 Ks in 174 innings but nearly a 5.00 ERA.  This is the definition of a flier; if he can figure it out, he could be a monster, even if he plays in Arizona.

Round 21: (207th overall, 182 O-rank, #635 in 2016, ADP of 206) Taijuan Walker, Ari SP.  You can do worse in a 21st rounder; If I had thought about it I would have picked Dansby Swanson, who went a few picks earlier.  But I was still thinking pitching.  Walker goes to a new place, i’ve been reading about mechanical changes.  What if he’s turned the corner?  that’s the risk and that’s the hope here.

Honestly, I think my last four picks are quickly replaceable by any one of a number of “hot” starters once the season starts, but hey, its the end of a 21 round draft on a week night and everyone was exhausted.

---

So, by position:

• C: Realmuto
• 1B: Hanley Ramierz
• 2B: Altuve, LeMahieu
• SS: Boegarts
• 3B: Donaldson
• OF: Marte, Cruz, Yelich
• SP: Verlander, Cole, Porcello, Fulmer, Roark, Estrada, Ray, Walker
• RP: Britton, Allen, Dyson, Watson

Verdict: love the hitters, not in love with my starers, like my closers.  I have a more “veteran” team this year, with little to no impact rookies to dream on.  I may alleviate this after culling the waiver wire and swapping out some of my lower-end pitchers.  Its a far cry from the talent I had last year. I’ll have to be fast on the waiver wire for up and coming players.

This being said, I wasn’t particularly impressed with any of the other teams either.  I think we have a good balance of talent all the way around.  Should be a fun league.