hate to see this. Photo via usatoday
Just a placeholder post for discussion on the hot topic of the day/weekend.
Adam Eaton‘s ACL injury creates some short term and some longer term implications for the roster. Lets talk and speculate while we wish him a speedy recovery.
sidenote: With modern medicine ACL injuries take time, but also take *time* before the player is ever feeling “right” about his leg again, so this is certainly a bummer for both Eaton and the team. Reported 6-9 month recovery time before he’s back on the field. But by all accounts it really takes athletes two full years to “trust” the repaired ACL. We’ll get to what I think this means for our roster longer term below.
Short Term: obviously we’re seeing a like-for-like replacement in CF with Michael Taylor. We are all well aware of his short comings, and i’m guessing this may be his “last chance” to show that he belongs in a starting role. Interestingly, the team opted not to call up Brian Goodwin for the backup OF bench role, but untested Rafael Bautista. Neither are really tearing it up in AAA this year; Bautista’s got a .291 BA but its rather empty, while Goodwin’s OPS is in the .640 range. Dusty Baker installed Taylor in the 2nd spot in the order inexplicably (lineup construction theory tells us that you want your BEST hitter in the #2 hole, not your worst) and he was rewarded with a 3-5 day from him. But I’d much, much rather see Rendon or a hot Werth batting 2nd with Taylor buried further down (like, 8th).
If Taylor fails to produce, there’s not a whole lot on the farm to draw from. Victor Robles isn’t ready (and he’s hurt), nor is Juan Soto. I’d probably dip to AA and pluck the hitting machine Andrew Stevenson to backfill in center if a need arose. But that’s a tough jump for Stevenson, who basically has a season and a half of pro ball experience.
Trade market? its probably too early for most teams to start thinking about a trade. We’d have to ride out a sub-par Taylor for a couple of months before the trade waters started heating up. But there’s definitely teams out there who are punting on 2017 who might have CF capable guys to flip; looking at Kansas City (Lorenzo Cain) if they continue to struggle Oakland’s Rajai Davis, Toronto’s Kevin Pillar if Toronto can’t un-bury themselves, or the Angels (Mike Trout) .. ok just kidding there. I can’t really see any obvious trade candidate from an NL team; all the guys on floundering NL teams seem like prospects that they’d want to keep, not veterans or FAs-to-be worth flipping. Anyway, we might not want to trade away more depth for a piece though, especially a rental.
Lets hope for a Taylor career resurgence, or perhaps a Stevenson call-up.
Longer Term: I wonder if this injury doesn’t make the Nats re-think their off-season strategy. Will Eaton be able to play CF next season? Will he have to move to LF while (as mentioned above) he learns to trust his knee again? If Eaton has to move to Left, then there’s no possible way that Jayson Werth continues his tenure here. I realize you guys may not think Werth could re-up on a shorter term deal .. but if he has a nice season and we still have a need in LF, why not? Anyway; Eaton in LF, Harper in RF (because apparently Baker won’t even think about moving Harper to CF like i’ve advocated in the past), which leaves us short a CF yet again. It could happen. Like our rotating door at closer, are we looking at more rotating doors in CF?
Will Stevenson be ready for 2018 to man CF? Will Taylor own it? Will Eaton be ready? Or are we looking at a FA stop-gap to Stevenson/Robles tenure?
Might be way early to worry about this stuff (ok, yes it is way early). Just idle thoughts while we see if the Nats can salvage a win in this awful series.
I agree with KK that the 1 thing the Nats farm has right now is speedy outfielders in the upper tiers of the system.
It’s time to see what they have with Taylor, Bautista, & Goodwin. The Nats are probably going to cruise to a division title without Eaton. Put up or else time for all three.
Goodwin’s not really a CF, but he looked like he belonged in September at the plate.
Spiderman’s time will come, but more so in 2018.
Mark L
30 Apr 17 at 2:03 pm
With this kind of lineup, they could probably get by with a replacement level CF that plays superior D. Seems like we have a lot of those guys.
An alternative that I mentioned in the last post is Zach Cosart, and move Trea back to CF. that puts a better lineup out there for 2017, and I’m guessing that, even though he is off to an excellent start, he wouldn’t be too costly. The reds couldn’t give him away in the offseason and my guess is a Joan Baez type plus taking on the salary gets it done. The big question would be, how does Trea react to that.
Separately, on the longer term question, I think you are spot on that it may take Eaton time, once he is playing again, to really be comfortable out there again. It really sucks, since I’ve enjoyed watching him play, and he seems to be well liked.
Wally
30 Apr 17 at 5:09 pm
I’m guessing moving Turner to CF is a non-starter. It certainly sounded like it to me from Baker (along with moving Harper to CF). And i’m in agreement; if Turner had grown up playing CF then moved to SS perhaps … but he was not a good defensive CF last year and his inexperiene showed. I think you stick your marquee players where they be long and leave them there.
It begs the question; where would you rather have a problem? SS or CF? If you have one solved, why move your solution to open up another problem area?
Todd Boss
30 Apr 17 at 6:15 pm
Turner back to CF is never going to happen, nor should it. He has already made some great plays at SS this year and it’s easier to fill an OF hole than it is to find a good starting SS. Regarding Todd’s comment about leaving your marquee players where they belong, look no further than having Rendon at 2B two years ago to accommodate Escobar. That was painful.
This is Taylor’s last chance to show he can hit well enough to be an MLB regular. He certainly has the natural ability and his blend of power and speed would be great to have if he could even hit .240 or so. In this lineup, that’s all they need as long as he plays well defensively. Say hi to Espy 2.0.
On a personal note, I completely blew out my ACL playing softball years ago. It took me a year to return to the field and I’d say I was about 100% by then, but I was a 43 year old first basemen type at the time. My surgeon did a great job, and I’ve had no issues with the knee in the decade since then.
Karl Kolchak
30 Apr 17 at 7:17 pm
I was chatting about Eaton’s ACL with my dad and he pointed out a good point: unlike say a basketball player/tennis player/soccer star who needs to constantly “cut” on the knee … Eaton playing the OF might be to his benefit. He’s not an infielder so most of his runs are in straight lines. that could be good for an ACL injury and might mitigate my longer term concerns.
I’ve had multiple knee surguries but nothing on the scale of an “CL” tear of nay part. Karl; who did your surgery here?
Todd Boss
30 Apr 17 at 7:44 pm
Dr. Brent Ain out here in Fairfax. I later recommended him to a friend, who also had great luck with him.
Karl Kolchak
30 Apr 17 at 11:32 pm
Boy, you guys are better off than me; I had 2 knee surgeries and they both turned out bad. One’s claim to fame is he had been the Redskins doctor but I think he sneezed in mid-surgery or something like that. Bad!
Eatons’s gone, so lets give the above mentioned 3 a chance. MAT has been great so far. Wally is right, MAT gives them Gold Glove defense right now and they just need him to show some occasional pop.
Mark L
1 May 17 at 2:42 am
The presence of Bautista-Goodwin-Stevenson enables the team to get a good read of Taylor for as long as needed. Fortunately for him, Baker is paternal and protective and will give Taylor the means to succeed (adequate sample size) and look out for him psychologically to ensure that he is not ruined (like a CF version of Drew Storen).
Bautista is up and has not faltered. He may not get his chances to be an everyday OF but if Taylor struggles, he will get starts and will get small chances, but chances, to prove himself.
Goodwin does not have the same level of defense that the others have. So while all of this plays out at the ML level over the next weeks-two months, Stevenson get more time at AA and then, perhaps a bump, and Goodwin as well to see who is next in line. Competition is good. Baker will give Goodwin his chances but if Stevenson makes a transcendent impression when he eventually goes up to AAA, as Turner did, we will see him sooner.
I am not one of those who advocates a trade for a replacement, so long as the team is gretting great defense from a controllable player.
forensicane
1 May 17 at 5:57 am
Sorry guys, but MAT is Danny 2.0. Don’t get me wrong, he has a GREAT tool set, probably better overall than anyone the Nats have in the pipeline, even Robles (less power than MAT) or Soto (less speed). But until Taylor proves he’s not going to strike out one third of the time, he’s never going to be an effective regular. He’s in his 8th season of pro ball, and Ks have always been a big problem for him.
I think folks are probably right that the current Nat lineup can afford to carry Taylor and his Ks, though, . . . much as it did Danny and his empty stats last year. This will particularly be the case if Zimm keeps going like he did in April and Rendon keeps going like he did on Sunday. Goodness, the guys are putting up video-game numbers.
The other piece of the equation is how difficult is the division actually going to be? The Mets are already struggling, and if Thor is hurt, they may sink. (It really hurt that the Nats [bullpen] couldn’t get it done on Fri. and Sat., which could have buried the Mets 10.5 games back.) Anyway, there’s not going to be a lot of incentive to trade for a replacement piece if the race isn’t going to be close, at least for the regular season. At the trade deadline, maybe a piece like Lo Cain comes into play, for a second-tier prospect. Either that, or they give Stevenson a look mid-season if Taylor is scuffling.
KW
1 May 17 at 8:31 am
Never heard of Ain. My knees were done by Shaffer, then I had an ankle/knee surgery done by Neufeld (ankle specialist). Dr. Shaffer may ring a bell; he was the Nationals team orthopaedist back in the beginning but took some heat for the state of the health of the team and resigned after the 2006 season. I’d like to point out that he operated on me before the Nats were here, so this is not an example of me being a surgeon fan boy 🙂
Todd Boss
1 May 17 at 8:55 am
KW makes good points. You can’t have all stars at every position in the modern game. Its ok to have a “hole” somewhere, as long as that hole produces defensively. And that seems to be precisely what we can expect from MAT.
Todd Boss
1 May 17 at 8:57 am
I agree that Turner probably stays at SS. The Nats have more potential OF replacements, plus they need to let him get familiar and steady with his long-term position.
That said, they would have a decent in-house option at SS with Drew whenever he comes off the DL. Not saying it will happen, just pointing it out.
Speaking of the DL, Robles seems to have entered to witness protection program at Potomac. He supposedly was not that badly hurt. If he’s going to have any chance at being in the competition to replace Werth, he’s got to get back on the field and do enough to move up to AA.
I do think there will at least be talks about bring Werth back for another year. I hope it’s with the understanding that he would be a bench guy (replacing Heisey), but you never know. Actually, my suggestion would be to hire him as a player-coach. Wouldn’t it be fun to watch him windmilling as the third-base coach? (He’d probably get a bunch of guys thrown out at the plate, but no more than Bob Sendley.)
KW
1 May 17 at 10:39 am
Call back to a prior post: Dane Dunning (finally) has been promoted to High-A. So, great that he had a 33-2 K/BB in low-A (allowing just 15 baserunners in 26 innings), but now he’s finally at the level he should be, so we can start to get a better picture of what he can do.
Robles MIA; not good. He needs to be pushing for a promotion after two months (like Fedde and Stevenson and Kieboom and other high-end prospects), not nursing an injury.
Werth as player-coach; that’s funny. He’s got an OPS north of .800 right now; he’s not currently thinking that he’s “done.” And if he finishes the year with 20 homers and decent numbers, he’s going to think he can still start. That’s where we may run into issues with him; he’s not likely to settle for a bench role. Of course, from a player-motivation perspective, there’s always this: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/06/jayson-werth-nationals-cubs-interview-cursing-walk-off-hit-mlb
Todd Boss
1 May 17 at 10:55 am
Nice thoughtful piece from Dave Cameron at fangraphs on the dilemma that the team faces: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/adam-eaton-forces-the-nationals-to-make-another-big-decision/
Todd Boss
1 May 17 at 11:02 am
The very best case scenario vis-a-vis Werth is that he plays so well this year that teams think he’s a starting player going forward and he ends up costing too much for the Nats to keep in 2018 and beyond. I like Werth quite a bit, and I expect he’ll be a decent OBP/decent power hitter (especially against lefties) for a few more years. And he remains a savvy (if not fast) base runner. The problem is that he’s a statue in the field (albeit with good ball skills). He belongs in the AL, I’m afraid.
I’ve long been an advocate of Harper in CF but am now wondering if the Nats have been smart keeping him in right. His lower half is noticeably larger this year, and his swing appears much more balanced. I wonder if that’s a product of the stronger lower half, which could be put in jeopardy by running around in CF 150 times a year.
My thoughts on MAT: (1) we’re close to “he is what he is” territory but not there yet. He’s young enough and his playing time has been sporadic enough to think it’s at least possible there is some improvement there; (2) the improvement he needs to make is not large, though it is difficult: get the K% to 25% (down from 33%). An OBP in the .310s with his power/defense/speed would be a decent enough player; (3) the Zim renaissance covers up a lot. It’s much easier to take MAT as a hole in the lineup with a productive Zim; (4) MAT should never ever ever hit second.
Derek
1 May 17 at 11:06 am
Interesting tidbits about Bryce Harper in CF:
– He’s 8th all time for the Nats in terms of Innings played in Center despite really only playing a bit more than a half season there (918 innings or about 100 games).
– He’s the LEADER in terms of DRS for any CF we’ve ever had irrespective of the length they played
– He’s 2nd in terms of Fangraph’s total defense metric behind only Nyjer Morgan. And he’s also 2nd only to Morgan in UZR/150.
– He trails only Ankiel in terms of Arm value from CF.
And i don’t think its a stretch to say that he’s easily the best hitter of any CF we’ve ever had.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=24&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d
I’ve given up on the “I think Harper should be playing CF” argument. He does look more stocky. He’s definitely bigger this year. if you google for his official 2012 and 2017 pictures you can see the difference for sure. I think my bigger reason goes back to what I was saying before: “leave your marquee players at the positions they want to play at.” Don’t mess with Harper or Turner or Murphy or Rendon. Let them play where they’ve been working all spring and all year, and fill in around them.
Todd Boss
1 May 17 at 11:58 am
I don’t think Werth stays healthy for the whole run, but we’re not going to contemplate that with one OF already down. If he does, well, then we’ll see. As noted, the prospects would seem stronger that Eaton will be coming back to LF, not CF.
KW
1 May 17 at 3:12 pm
Let’ talk about how a couple of random teams dealt with similar issues here recently. One has a young star tweak a muscle. He says, “I’m good,” but the team puts him on the DL anyway. He takes a couple of weeks off and comes back as good as new and hits for the cycle only a few days later.
Another team has a young star tweak a muscle. He says, “I’m good,” refuses an MRI, pitches with only a couple of days of extra rest . . . and may have just sunk an already-sinking season for the franchise with a torn lat. The team responds by making it known that the player refused the MRI, seeming to blame the problem on him.
Best wishes, Thor (seriously). It’s just terrible when a team commits malpractice after malpractice on its young players. The Braves did similar things to their young staff while trying to beat the Nats in 2013, and the franchise has been in the tank ever since.
The decision shouldn’t rest with the players. Stras grumbled when the Nats shut him down, but he was given no choice, . . . and he’s $175M richer because of it. There are things to question and quibble about with how the Nats do business, but on fundamental things, there’s a lot to respect.
KW
1 May 17 at 3:30 pm
+1 to KW’s post. The Nats clearly think more about the medium- and long-term than the current Mets and the 2013-14 vintage Braves. Rizzo has stated publicly that he tries to build a 90-win team year after year, not to maximize wins each year. It’s easy to criticize the Lerners for a lot of the seemingly strange choices they make, but they deserve credit for allowing Rizzo to follow this strategy. It’s easy to call Alderson and Collins stupid for the way they handled Syndergaard (not to mention Harvey in 2015) – and they probably are stupid – but they were probably responding to whatever incentives ownership set up for them.
Derek
1 May 17 at 4:23 pm
Smoltz with telling comments on the overemphasis on velocity:
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/noah-syndergaard-injury-time-grame-new-york-mets-tommy-john-surgery-rosenthal-043017
KW
1 May 17 at 7:44 pm
I don’t feel sorry for Syndergaard, who actually stated this past offseason that one of his goals was to throw even harder this year than in the past despite his previous injuries. Then there was also that stupid bit where he went on Harper’s Instagram page and called him douche for no apparent reason. I mean, WTF? Doesn’t he have better things to do with his time in the offseason? Anyway, he strikes me as a real Nuke LaLoosh-type meathead. Rob Dibble, check your messages.
On Taylor, having him be Espy 2.0–playing great defense while batting .220 or so, smashing the occasional 420-foot tater and stealing 10-15 bases–is all the Nats need from him right now. I would also note that Harper has not stolen a base this year and is now clearly emphasizing the power aspect of his game over speed.
Karl Kolchak
1 May 17 at 10:13 pm
Mark L–sorry hear about your horrible surgery experience. One league whose doctors I would never trust is the NFL given its history of being less than totally concerned about its players health. This story about the Chargers’ (now former) team physician really made my blood boil.
http://deadspin.com/the-chargers-doctor-is-a-drunk-quack-why-havent-they-466685771
This is an excerpt, but the whole thing is worth reading:
“The California Medical Board believes that David Chao should lose his medical license. Nearly two dozen former patients who have sued him since 1998—alleging in all the medical superfecta of malpractice, personal injury, negligence, and fraud—would agree. Dissenting: the NFL and the San Diego Chargers, for whom Chao has served as team physician for the past 15 years.
“The Chao dossier is lengthy. Two drinking-and-driving citations. A DEA investigation. Accusations that he enabled his former partner’s prescription-drug habit. Four lawsuits from former Chargers he had treated. In early 2011, reporter Brent Schrotenboer, Chao’s most dedicated watchdog, counted 20 lawsuits filed against Chao since 1998, with at least eight of those “settled with payouts to plaintiffs.” Another was decided last summer, when Chao was found liable for negligence and fraud in the case of a 15-year-old girl, Whitney Engler, who had been disfigured in the course of Chao’s treatment.”
Karl Kolchak
1 May 17 at 10:39 pm
Organization wide, stolen base attempts are way down. It suggests that the team medical staff may feel there is a correlation with injury during cold-rainy weather months. When you have folks like Bautista and Stevenson and others barely running, and Turner (pre-injury), one wonders to what degree it is by medical design.
So we will agree to disagree on Taylor. I’ve lived through too many late bloomers that people gave up on. The comparison between Espinosa and Taylor is not apt. Espinosa lives by the power game. Taylor has power but does not. Espinosa is a smart player. Taylor has the vulnerability to make mistakes of judgment. The latter gives me cause for more optimism with practice.
The graduation from AAA to ML is a big jump, and being a AAAA player is only one explanation. The majors are full of players that just needed a chance and patience. I may not be the biggest Dusty Baker fan, but he clearly believes in Taylor and Taylor certainly has certain skills that help this team, be it the range in CF to make life easier with Werth in left to a bat that has been clutch in late game situations. And of course, what’s not to like about the power/speed he has, which is better than Espinosa.
For Danny, whose ceiling was .240/20/70, if he was guaranteed to hit .230, he might still be getting paid here. It’s the .150 streaks that were a killer. Taylor’s ceiling is much higher than .220.
Very interesting goings on down on the farm after 20 plus games, especially in the minors. Stevenson has been promoted, Robles is back as expected (the Nats rested him in cold weather in Potomac, appropriate in context to Syndegaard conversation).
Meanwhile, on the catching side, the order has completely turned upside down. Taylor Gushue, a defense first 23 yo minor league acquisition from Pirates (who know their talent scouting for the draft), is leading the Carolina league in homeruns and slugging and hitting in the middle of the order. Speaking of late bloomers; but he is only in his second season of high A so this is not necessarily to be dismissed.
Raudy Read is starting at AA over Spencer Kieboom and maintaining high offensive production. No word yet on his defense, which was criticized for a while but improved last year. But he is starting while Kieboom DHs. So the pecking order is clear. And then, there is Jorge Tillero outperforming Tres Barrera just as he showed up opposite Jakson Reetz last year. All good signs, especially with Jeyner Baez buried in XST notwithstanding his talent.
Also keep an eye on Edwin Lora at Potomac. Young, speedy, flashy defense, now cutting down on errors, and his offensive skills have jumped forward. Abreu is struggling at AA and Kieboom is raking at A-. Good signs there.
With the draft next month(!!!), and the Nats coming off what appears to have been an outstanding, outstanding 2016 haul, we are looking at a restocked depth chart at AA and below next year, and filtering even higher if players like Robles perform at transcendent levels.
Considering how much we have groaned about a lack of organizational power, the signs have to be encouraging this year, especially when you consider that Marmelos is not yet seeing game action and Simonetti is still buried in XST, as are other bat prospects like Upshaw. The Nats management knows what its doing.
And the Nats are to be congratulated for Zimms resurgence. They obviously dealt with his health issues with a measure of patience and consideration for the player, moving him to 1B and working with him.
I think when the MASN lawsuit resolves, the organization will take another quantum leap forward, because they know how to invest. Count me among those who expect Rizzo to be here a long time. The fate of Harper looms, though. Here’s hoping the chemistry is special and the courts cooperate. He is looking like an MVP again.
forensicane
2 May 17 at 6:35 am
One more thing. I think the Nats plan B is Stevenson (if he succeeds at AAA), and that is precisely why he was promoted this quickly. His success at AA, coming off a very impressive fall campaign and dynamism at the top of the order, and his quick mastery of the pro game translate well long term.
So I think Taylor will get his shot, but the Nats have reason to be even-keeled, because the replacements are in house. I think a trade for a free agent to be OF or another CF at this point would be a panic move and unwise.
Also, now that he is back, don’t expect Robles to be sitting at Potomac for too long. He is too dominant there already, and CF just opened up at AA. Bring on the conga line.
forensicane
2 May 17 at 6:48 am
Karl, I don’t deny that even five boroughs can’t contain the egos of Thor and Harvey. I don’t like either of them and wouldn’t want them on my team, despite the talent. All of that acknowledged, the way the Mets continue to play these things is so two-faced, or whatever you want to call it. The team acts like it lets the players dictate what they want to do. In Harvey’s case, the team was even calling him out in the press. In Thor’s current situation, it sure seems like the team is trying to blame him getting hurt because he said he was good to go and refused the MRI.
Who in the heck is in charge there? Are the inmates running the asylum? Or are they just being blamed when things go sideways? (A lot of this smacks of similar story lines with the RGIII mess a few years ago with another dysfunctional franchise.)
As I said, you can quibble with certain practices of Nat management, but there’s never any doubt who is in charge. The players don’t make the call, and neither are they publicly shamed or blamed. That’s a hallmark of a quality organization, and not just in sports.
KW
2 May 17 at 8:02 am
Taylor arguments remind me of the arguments we used to have about Ian Desmond; well, Ian Desmond struggled badly while playing full seasons as a 24 and 25 year old before blowing up as a 26yr old. If you look at his 2011 splits (his last “poor year”) he was really bad first half, decent 2nd half. So that worked out to right around 900 PAs before he started to turn things around.
.. which is right about exactly where Taylor is; he’s got 825 career PAs, he’s right in that age 25-26 range.
So, if Taylor’s going to make the jump, this is it. Its no coincidence Baker is on record saying this is his last shot. So what’s different between Desmond and Taylor at this stage of their careers?
– Desmond didn’t strike out nearly as much
– Desmond’s OBP was higher than Taylors has been; he was above .300 for his first two full seasons while Taylor’s career OBP is .280
– Taylor flashes a bit more power, Desmond a bit more speed on the basepaths
– Taylor is a plus defender in CF by range. Desmond was always a sub-par defender at short.
– Desmond’s Batting averages were at least workable; .253 and .269 before jumping nearly 40 points in his break out year. Taylor’s BAs have been awful; career .228. He’d need a 60 point jump with the associated patience at the plate to take walks in order to have the same kind of break out season.
– Desmond’s OPS+ figures were in the 80-90 range. Taylors career OPS+ is 71. that’s significant.
My verdict; I think he’s got too far to go to really turn the corner to a place where he can hold down the job and force the team to not replace him. I see Taylor scuffling in center until the all star break and then something happening. Trade, call-up, replacement, something.
Todd Boss
2 May 17 at 8:49 am
Stevenson promotion to AAA: .350/.429/.438; that’s his slash line in AA this season. Gotta move him up. Also a telling move in that he slots in for Bautista like for like and, if he can maintain his hitting stroke in AAA, seems like a perfect replacement for Taylor if he can’t cut it.
Todd Boss
2 May 17 at 8:52 am
A curious, still-developing story is that Joe Ross has shown up as optioned to Syracuse on MLB transactions, but the move hasn’t been announced by the Nats. Is J. Turner the new fifth starter? Are they still playing games with Ross’s service time? What gives? There’s no doubt he was laboring against the Mets on Sunday.
KW
2 May 17 at 9:25 am
I like the Desi comparison much more than the Espinosa one. Imperfect, but a lot closer.
forensicane
2 May 17 at 9:26 am
Todd has covered most of my thoughts on Taylor and his supposed upside. As I noted above, I think he has all the tools in the world, but I’d go further than Derek and say that I already think “he is what he is.”
I don’t think Taylor is ever going to come close to a Desi-like peak, though. The comp is much more Danny, whose career BA is .224. Taylor’s is .228. Danny’s career OBP is .300, while Taylor’s is .279.
If the light blub goes on for Taylor, terrific. He’s getting this one last real opportunity that I wasn’t sure he would get. But Stevenson is at AAA now. If he hits there, or if Goodwin comes back to life, they’re not going to carry MAT long >.200, maybe not >.220.
Can this offense afford to carry such an uncertain bat? Yeah, for now. The Nats have a healthy lead, and the Mets have few positives. The Nats may roll on through the regular season. But the big-K guys are real killers in the lineup in the playoffs.
KW
2 May 17 at 9:36 am
One quick additional point: love their approaches or hate them, there’s no denying that Desi and Danny were always very confident at the plate, to the point of stubbornness. Taylor has never struck me as being nearly that confident in what he’s doing.
I hope he proves me wrong, but I’m not holding my breath.
KW
2 May 17 at 9:39 am
I think Taylor’s athleticism makes him more similar to Desmond than to Espinosa. Taylor has a fluid powerful swing, like Desmond, whereas Danny’s was more mechanical.
On the other hand, Taylor’s results have been more similar to Danny’s thus fair in his career. Desmond never struck out as much as Taylor until his last year with the Nats. And you can view Taylor as a worse version of Espinosa at the plate as he lacks Danny’s walks and HBPs.
The reason I think there’s a non-negligible chance Taylor improves is because his athleticism – that and the fact that he’s been jerked around the last few years (for good reason), which has to have affected his development. The scouting guys always say “bet on the good athletes.” This doesn’t mean I think it’s probable that Taylor will break out (or that a Taylor breakout will be nearly as good as Desmond’s breakout).
For this team (loaded) in this situation (a decent division lead with a hobbled primary rival), it makes sense to give Taylor a final shot.
Derek
2 May 17 at 10:40 am
Joe Ross option: yeah I had to double check it myself before believing it. Seems like a quick hook even if he was laboring against the Mets. It also means that Syracuase is I think 2 players heavy right now (Ross and Stevenson). We might see a couple corresponding AAA moves soon.
Todd Boss
2 May 17 at 10:40 am
Nats Talk reporting that they’re being told that Cole is being called up, so he can serve his suspension. It’s all bizarre. Cole has been awful (6 ER in last start), so the thought can’t be that he’s going to be any kind of help for the big club. Maybe they think he’d be more tradeable with the suspension cleared? Beats me. If I were calling up an arm, it would Austin Adams.
KW
2 May 17 at 11:03 am
Maybe they feel that Cole will give them better results than 7.43, and they don;t have to break in a rookie (Adams)
forensicane
2 May 17 at 11:12 am
But if you’ve got a suspended player on the active roster, can you still fill that 25th spot on the roster? In other words, they don’t make the team play a man down while the suspension is being served, do they? So they may also bring up another player, right?
KW
2 May 17 at 11:30 am
Ugh–one thing this team doesn’t need with all of it’s bullpen woes is a 5th starter hole, but that’s what they have right now. Ross, Cole, Voth; flip a three sided coin, they’ve all been awful and I doubt Turner will be that much better over time.
It seems like they have seen something they haven’t liked about Ross’s stuff going all the way back to the beginning of ST. It’s notable that his BAA has gone from .223 to .269 to .308 in his three seasons, so perhaps it is a case of hitters figuring out what he was doing and making the adjustment. If that”s the case, he needs to adjust back or he’ll end up being AAAA.
Karl Kolchak
2 May 17 at 2:03 pm
I get why Ross might legitimately need some time at AAA. I don’t get why anyone would see Cole as a viable major-league pitcher right now. Cole, Voth, and Taylor Hill have all been bad at Syracuse thus far, though. If I remember correctly, Cole only had one good outing in the spring, and he hasn’t had any at ‘Cuse. He’s really struggling to figure things out.
KW
2 May 17 at 2:35 pm
KW–Ross has now thrown a full season’s worth of MLB innings (197.1 IP). At this point it seems more like a matter of stuff than preparation. He just isn’t that good.
Karl Kolchak
2 May 17 at 3:35 pm
I’m not ready to say that Joe Ross isn’t “good.” Even with his struggles this year he’s still got a career 107 ERA+. And his numbers over the last two years were supurb. Why do we suddenly think he’s awful because of a couple of iffy starts, one of which was in Colorado? He hasn’t even turned 24 yet.
He’s YOUNGER than Erick Fedde.
patience, patience. thankfully he’s got options to go down to AAA and work stuff out.
Todd Boss
2 May 17 at 3:51 pm
Right — Ross is younger than Fedde, Cole, and Voth. His ERA+ last season was 122. He’s controlled for four more seasons after this one. He’s a tremendous asset. People are still willing to believe in Taylor but want to throw Ross overboard after a couple of bad outings????
Yes, Ross has shown some regression, but he’s also coming off injury. He still may not be 100%. He sure wasn’t when the Nats brought him back for the playoffs last year. Meanwhile, sure, let’s find out what we’ve got in Jacob Turner. But I have no interest in seeing Cole get any MLB innings right now. I hope they just clear his suspension and send him back down.
Speaking of the suspension, my question above still stands: don’t the Nats get to fill his 25-man spot for the suspension games? The Mets didn’t play with 24 while Familia was suspended.
KW
2 May 17 at 5:35 pm
Agree with patience on Ross. He still has 2/3 starter upside.
Note, this is what the Fangraphs prospect guy said about the Nats and CF in a chat today:
aaron: How about Nats CF situation…looking at Goodwin..better than Taylor or Bautista for solid production (higher floor?)
1:28
Eric A Longenhagen: Taylor has the highest ceiling, Bautista is probably the safest bet of those three to help out. He’s always hit, has a career average up around .290, and is a big, physical, 70 runner. He makes some mental mistakes on the bases. I think I’d play Taylor just to see if he develops. The team is good enough to survive Taylor hitting .210 with some power and if he makes adjustments he could be very valuable. If not then you make a change. At least they have the in-house pieces to do it.
Derek
2 May 17 at 5:39 pm
MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that the Nats sent Ross down to work on his changeup. Patience with Ross is fine and they obviously don’t want to give up on him too early, I’m just saying that the way the team has treated him this spring sure makes it look like they’ve lost a lot of confidence in him.
Karl Kolchak
2 May 17 at 8:16 pm
Shaffer did my shoulder in 2002 or around then. Did a pretty good job.
Don’t know if you saw, but he passed away in 2015.
Andrew R
3 May 17 at 12:46 am