We’ve seen the last of Paul Skenes’ college career.
We’re through to the CWS final in Omaha. Let’s recap the group play with some notes.
In the Top Bracket (#1 Wake Forest, Tennessee, #5 LSU, #8 Stanford)
- In the opening games, Wake Forest survives a strong push from Stanford, winning a game they probably didn’t deserve to win. Meanwhile, LSU topped Tennessee behind another show of force from Paul Skenes, who threw 120+ pitches and pitched into the 8th in a game they had in hand.
- In the first elimination game, Tennessee’s Chase Dollander got pulled after three innings (not a good sign for his 1st round draft prospects) but sophomore Chase Burns threw 6 shut-out innings to help eliminate Stanford.
- In the winner’s bracket game, Wake Forest showed some serious mettle to get another come-from-behind win against LSU to advance to the Group final.
- In the play-in game, LSU faced off against Tennessee yet again (three times in the regular season, once again a few days ago), and they won again, blanking the Volunteers 5-0 and sending them home.
- In the group final, Wake Forest’s coach made a crucial, critical error allowing his beleaguered starter to pitch to LSU’s cleanup masher with 1st base open … and Cade Beloso delivered with a 3-run homer that stood up. Wake is forced into a winner-take all game, which means both Wake and LSU burn their #1 starters ahead of the CWS finals.
- In the winner take all game … LSU gets to throw its ace Skenes again, and he goes against Wake’s ace Rhett Lowder. What a match-up. And it lived up to the billing, with the two aces trading zeros for 8 innings. Amazingly, Wake pulled Lowder as he sat on 88 pitches through 7; why pull him? He completely out-pitched Skenes on the night and could have probably pitched 9 complete if you gave him 110 pitches. I don’t get it. Meanwhile, Skenes needed 120 pitches to complete 8 ip; 2 hits, 1 walk, 9 Ks on the night. LSU gets a walk-off from its burly, fluffy haired, gold-chain wearing third baseman Tommy White to win the game and break Wake’s heart.
Final Group standings: LSU, Wake Forest, Tennessee, Stanford
In the Bottom Bracket (#2 Florida, TCU, Oral Roberts, #7 UVA)
- In the opening games: fans couldn’t ask for two better openers in Omaha. In the first game. Oral Roberts game up 3 in the 8th but then scored 4 in the 9th to shock TCU with a 6-5 win. In the nightcap, UVA completely blew a game they had under control, giving up 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth as UVA’s coach let a reliever give up two homers (one a 456-foot rocket from top-5 draft pick Wyatt Langford, a single, a walk and a HBP to load the bases before finally going with his stopper, who promptly gave up a Sac fly to lose the game. Just a ridiculous coaching job.
- In the first elimination game, UVA capitulated to TCU to become the first team eliminated, as their two big hitters went o-fer in the game.
- In the winner’s bracket game, Florida edged Oral Roberts by the skin of their teeth, getting out of a bases-loaded one-out jam in the bottom of the 9th to move into the group final.
- In the play-in game, Oral Roberts faced TCU again, and couldn’t repeat their magic one more time. TCU’s arms controlled the game and sent the Cinderella ORU home 6-1.
- In the group final, Florida faced off against TCU slightly fresher and with their Sunday starter on tap. And the #2 team delivered, scoring a run in the top of the 9th and making it stick to edge TCU and take the group undefeated.
Final Group standings: Florida, TCU, Oral Roberts, UVA
CWS Preview and Prediction: one of the things I hate about the CWS final is that it gives the teams, who have been playing basically every day for a week, just one day off before a Sat-Sun-Mon final. This badly penalizes teams for getting their pitching stretched, and (for me) may dictate who wins. But logistically you can’t keep kids in Omaha for a month, so it is what it is.
Florida took their regional in 3 straight, so they have their starters lined up exactly as they want. #1 starter Sproat will have 8 days rest, Waldrep will have 7 days rest, and if needed Caglianone will have 5 days rest. Meanwhile, they won’t have to face Skenes again, and have a huge advantage in the final. LSU will presumably throw their Saturday starter Ty Floyd on 4 days rest, then their #3 starter Ackenhausen on 4 day’s rest, then the kitchen sink if they make it to Monday. LSU doesn’t really have a Sunday starter; they gave starts to 9 other guys besides their top two starters on the season, many of them with ERAs in the 7s. Advantage Florida.
Here’s who i think these teams will throw as starters:
- Game 1 Sat 6/24: Florida’s Brandon Sproat vs LSU’s Ty Floyd
- Game 2 Sun 6/25: Florida’s Hurston Waldrep vs LSU’s Nate Ackenhausen
- Game 3 Mon 6/26: Florida’s Jac Caglianone vs LSU’s bullpen
Prediction: Florida in three.
Top Draft Players to watch in the final:
- Florida: Wyatt Langford, projected top 5 pick. Saturday starter Hurston Waldrep as a 1st round projection. Friday night Brandon Sproat and infielder Josh Rivera are 2nd/3rd rounders.
- LSU: You know the names: Skenes, Crews primarily, but big hitters White and Belosi.
Todd, I think it’s a bit of a stretch to say that the guy with the 7 IP, 3H, OR, 2BB, 6K line “completely out-pitched” the guy with the 8 IP, 2H, 0R, 1BB, 9K line. Both guys pitched well (though I agree Lowder was dealing and could have stayed in).
I hope you’re right that we’ve seen the last of Skenes on a college mound…
Derek
23 Jun 23 at 11:58 am
I think Lowder out-pitched Skenes. It took Skenes 100 pitches to get through 7, when Lowder was at 65 pitches through 6. Skenes gave up a TON of fly balls on the night; LSU couldn’t get practically any solid contact on Lowder. Lowder was was the more impressive pitcher on the night for me, with mid 90s pitches with movement and making hitters just look silly on his slider. The 3 hits that Lowder gave up were an infield single by Crews in the first, a 4th inning grounder on an 0-2 mistake, and White’s 6th inning double down the RF line on a ball he was completely late on. Most of his outs were weak grounders and punchouts and i didn’t see but a couple of hard-hit balls on the night.
Todd Boss
23 Jun 23 at 4:06 pm
I doubt you’re right, Todd, about Skenes not pitching anymore. The LSU coach has been abusive of Skenes once the regular season ended.
I’m rooting for Florida to win the first two games to prevent future abuse.
Mark L
23 Jun 23 at 4:17 pm
You make a good case that Lowder pitched better, I just think “completely out-pitched” is too strong. I reserve that for statements like, “Justin Verlander may be going to the hall of fame, but Stephen Strasburg completely out-pitched him in the 2019 World Series.”
Derek
23 Jun 23 at 4:39 pm
My initial CWS pick was FLA vs. LSU in the final, with FLA winning because of pitching depth. That scenario still seems strong, all the more with LSU having emptied the tank pitching-wise while FLA has its rotation rested and ready. LSU has a ferocious lineup, but I think the Gators will prevail.
The LSU-Wake semi was epic. For once, things lined up deep in the tournament for each team to go with its best, in this case two top-10 picks-to-be. I’m still seeing mocks that have Dollander ahead of Lowder, but I don’t know how that’s possible after what we’ve seen the last few weeks.
Was I the only one who thought it was telling in the 8th when Wake pitched to Crews but walked White? They feared White more, with what turned out to be good reason. Crews looked bad striking out in the 8th with what would have proved to be the winning run on second, swinging at a bill-high heater that also was probably outside. Trying too hard to be the hero.
I’m not terribly concerned about how Skenes pitched, particularly with how hard he’s been ridden in the postseason. Plus this was against a team that humiliated Bama with 22 runs in one game earlier in the tournament. Those were two loaded lineups last night, and remarkable jobs by the starters, and all but one of the relievers.
KW
23 Jun 23 at 6:43 pm
As for Skenes, the announcers said several times during the game that he was “probably”/”likely” making his last appearance in an LSU uniform.
KW
23 Jun 23 at 6:45 pm
One last stat about Lowder from that start: He threw 73 of his 88 pitches for strikes. 73 of 88! I listened to the d1baseball podcast recapping the game and they gave me that nugget and (while ALSO saying Lowder was more impressive on the night) pointed out a couple other things of note: Wake lost t heir best hitter to a pre-game injury, and the wind has been blowing in all week in Omaha, knocking down tons of flyballs. You know how many fly ball outs Skenes had on the night? 8 in 8 innings, several of them quite deep. Lowder? exactly 2 flyouts.
Anyway, not to belabor the point. Obviously Skenes was the better pitcher on the year and is still the better prosopect. But man, Lowder made himself some $$ with that start, and whoever gets him (i think i’ve seen him projected 9th or 10th) is getting a hell of a pitcher.
Todd Boss
24 Jun 23 at 2:38 pm
don’t be shocked if/when he pitches in relief on monday in game 3. That’d be 3 days rest and probably a “throw day” anyway. I just hope its not multiple innings.
God help me if he gets the start Monday.
Todd Boss
24 Jun 23 at 2:39 pm
We’ve now reached the worst case scenario with Skenes.
How many innings/pitches will the coach impose on him.
Where are the parents?
Mark L
26 Jun 23 at 7:30 am
This is big time danger territory for Skenes. His agent needs to be involved at this point. The right number of pitches to throw tonight is zero, but an inning or two is way better than having him start like normal. Someone needs to show Skenes the difference between Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg’s career earnings.
Galaxy brain take: Skenes blows out his UCL, leading PIT to take Crews and enabling the Nats to cut a big time deal with Skenes at #2 (Skenes’s UCL tear is probably happening at some point anyway). This aint happening – probably too risky not to take Langford if Skenes gets hurt – but fun to think about.
Derek
26 Jun 23 at 9:30 am
I’m thinking the same. I’ll bet dollars to donuts we see Skenes tonight for like a 2-inning stint.
Here’s a thought. How impressive has Langford been in Omaha, versus how UN-impressive has Crews been? I have read a train of thought that’s looked at Crews’ season and basically said, “he’s been on decline since the beginning of the year.” And its true; he feasted on pre-SEC pitching, then has basically been out-hit by Langford once the conference play has started. This week in Omaha, i have not been that impressed. I’ve seen a lot of weaker swings, more of a slap hitter versus the absolute power juggernaut that Langford has been. Who would you pick right now?
What happens if Pitt picks Skenes and the Nats are gulping between CRews and Langford?
Todd Boss
26 Jun 23 at 10:07 am
Just new posted about the final. But i’ll say this if you’re still reading here. I was Juuuuuuuuuuust about to say that i’m prefering Langford over Crews … until i saw this game. I saw Crews make a bunch of really “professional” advanced swings, including a couple of really well struck balls in the mid-innings that just made me say, “oh yeah, that’s why he’s so good.”
Thank god no Skenes.
Todd Boss
27 Jun 23 at 9:06 am