Here’s a quick recap with some thoughts on day 2 of the 2024 MLB Draft, rounds 3-10.
To recap, we picked a college SS/3B, then a college C, then a prep SS with our three day 1 picks.
Reminder: Draft tracking Links
- MLB Draft Tracker: updated for first 10 slots with all the info for our draftees plus Twitter accounts.
- List of all Slot values for 2024
- The Nats Draft Tracker master XLS, which I’m building out for 2024 as we go. With the trade we just made, our bonus pool is 13,895,100, but with the 5% buffer we can go up to 14,589,855 on our first 10 picks and 11th-20th rounders who get more than $150k.
Reminder: Draft Rankings
- Baseball America top 500 Draft Ranks 5/31/24, updated 7/1/24, finalized 7/10/24.
- Prospects1500/Shaun Kernahan top 400 Draft Rank 7/10/24
- ESPN/Kiley McDaniel top 250 Draft Ranks 7/9/24
- MLBpipeline/Mayo & Callis top 250 Draft ranks 5/30/24, expanded to 250 7/1/24
- The Athletic/Keith Law Final top 100 Draft rank 7/9/24
- Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen 2024 Draft board top 100 7/10/24
- Sporting News/Edward Sutelan 2024 Top 100 7/13/24
- The Athletic/Jim Bowden’s 2024 Draft Top 35 7/13/24
- CBSSports/RJ Anderson Top 30 Draft Rankings 6/14/24
- ProspectsLive Draft top 300 ranks 5/29/24, then finalized 7/11/24. (only top 30 free, rest paywall)
- Baseball Prospectus Final Draft board 7/11/24: behind a paywall.
3rd Round, 79th Overall: Nats take Kevin Bazzell, a College Jr Catcher/3B from Texas Tech.
Ranks by major shops: BA=68, ESPN=59, MLBpipeline=55, Law=35, Fangraphs=63
So, we picked a college catcher in round 2 who was actually ranked BELOW the college catcher we drafted in round 3. Interesting. A couple of the pundits (Law included) really like Bazzell, giving him a 60 hit tool. A 60 hit tool behind the plate has aspirations to Joe Mauer, and (true to Nats form lately) Bazzell also played 3B a lot this year. Despite having mononucleosis earlier this spring he still slashed .306/.401/.473.
Makes me wonder if Lomavita was underslot and Bazzell is over slot?
4th round, 108 overall: Jackson Kent, a LHP starter college Jr from University of Arizona.
Ranks by major shops: BA=138, ESPN=144, MLBpipeline=136, Law=unranked, Fangraphs=unranked, P1500=170,
Finally, we get a pitcher for our pitching starved system, but somehow Kent seems underwhelming. A lefty who posted kind of middle of the road numbers this year (4.08 era, 1.28 whip, about a hit an inning, about a K an inning, .253 BAA) as Arizona’s Friday night starter/ace. His game log from 2024 was rather interesting: his first 11 starts were pristine; almost all quality starts or close to it, a bunch of 6ip-1r type affairs, then his last four starts he got hit hard; gave up 5 in 4 2/3 against Stanford, 5 in 6ip against Utah, 5 in 3IP against Oregon State, and then 7 in 5ip against Cal.
His late season slump was bad enough that Arizona, who was a regional host/top 16 seed, didn’t even use him in the post season as they went 2-and-out. Usually such a wild turnaround indicates injury, but none was reported. Nonetheless, the Jackson Kent of the first 11 starts (2.47 ERA) is obviously the guy we want.
5th round, 141 overall: Randal Diaz, a college Jr SS from Indiana State by way of Puerto Rico.
Ranks: not ranked by anyone
Very little to go on here, other than scouting the stat line. He looked great for a CWS team this year, slashing .360/.437/.632 as a middle infielder with 18 homers. He batted leadoff and played SS and definitely contributed in the CWS regional as they made the regional final before falling to Kentucky.
Is this an under-slot signing? Probably; there’s still top prospects on the board and he’s well off. But, I like what we see here as a sneaky productive possible under-slot player. Interestingly, he had entered the transfer portal after Indiana State’s coach left just after the season ended to take the South Florida job. This likely makes him that much more signable/amenable to go pro.
6th round: 170 overall: Davian Garcia, a college junior RHP from Florida gulf Coast.
Ranks: unranked by all shops
Another unranked draftee likely also means underslot deal. Delving into his numbers this year at FGCU, he started in the bullpen and rose to be their ace starter by season’s end. He ended the year with a 3.03 ERA, 1.21 whip, and 71/20 K/BB in 59IP. 98 on the gun, with good spin and off-speed metrics apparently. I don’t love his mechanics (super inverted W with shoulder subluxation) and he’s kind of wirey/undersized, which screams a) injury and b) reliever, but you can’t teach velocity.
7th round: 200 overall: Robert Cranz, college junior RHP reliever from Oklahoma State.
Ranks: unranked
Another round, another arm, which is good to see. And we return to fertile scouting ground for this team: Oklahoma colleges. Cranz worked out of Oklahoma State’s bullpen this year with stellar results: 1.63 ERA, 0.77 whip, a .153 BAA. Great looking stats. Prior to OK State, he pitched two years at Wichita State. Not much out there on him. He came out of Keller HS in the Houston area, a baseball factory.
Is he destined for the pen in pro ball? Not necessarily; this team turned Brad Lord from a senior sign college reliever into a starter in AAA in two years. It’s not like these guys forgot how to throw 6 innings.
8th round: 230 overall: Sam Petersen, OF College Junior from Iowa
Ranks by major shops: BA=184, ESPN=205, MLBpipeline=205, P1500=209
So, in the 8th they get a guy who fell a bit (was 5th round projection perhaps) who seems to be a speedy OF type with great pace and solid SB numbers. He was hurt most of this season, so I wonder what kind of signability he has here.
9th Round: 260 Overall: Jackson Ross, a 5th year senior/grad corner 1B/OF from Ole Miss
The first obvious senior sign/$10k bonus candidate is Jackson Ross, who started every game for the team and showed some positional flexibility. He played 1B, LF, RF and DH’d this year. He was a middle of the order bat for the team, showed some power, decent OBP. He played his first few years at Florida Atlantic. Should be a $10k or $20k signer and may provide some veteran leadership not unlike what Gavin Dugas has done so far.
10th round: 290 overall: Luke Johnson, a college senior RHP starter from UMBC
Johnson was a weekend starter for traditional baseball powerhouse UMBC this year. His numbers weren’t as great this year, but last year he had a sub 3.00 ERA. Interestingly, he’s the very first player from Maryland to get picked this year (and as it turned out, the SOLE player from Maryland for the draft), with a down year from the University of Maryland and no prep prospects to speak of.
With all due respect to Johnson, this is the epitome of a slot savings pick, and should sign for $10k or so.
Draft summary so far:
6 position, 4 arms. 2 college catchers, the rest SS and guys who can slot in at multiple positions. The arms don’t look half bad.
2 Obvious slot savings picks at 9 & 10, maybe a couple others in the 5-7th range. But who are they saving money for? Is the prep SS from New Jersey going to cost that much? Maybe they have their eye on an 11th rounder that will go 7-figures.
hate to say it, but i’m not really that impressed with this class. Maybe the Seaver King pick has disappointed me from getting excited here.
I’m skeptical also, seems too many under slot guys with no one really needing to be THAT over slot.
Unless . . .
they go big on an 11-20 round high schooler.
Also saw this tidbit:
The draft-and-follow rule returns, allowing clubs that select players who opt to attend junior college to sign them between the end of their juco season and the beginning of the next year’s Draft. Any bonus amount over $225,000 will count toward teams’ bonus pools. A similar rule existed before being eliminated with the 2007-11 CBA.
Our last significant draft-and-follow was actually a good one, Brad Peacock, who had a 4.7 WAR career mainly with Houston (was dealt from DC to Oakland in the Gio trade).
VladiHondo
15 Jul 24 at 6:44 pm
I was also surprised with how underwhelming the last 6 picks were… it’s what a team desperately trying to save pool money would do, but who are they saving all their money on? Bazzell and Dickerson are the only ones who might command above slot deals, but that should be easily offset by Randal Diaz’s under slot savings alone, not to mention picks #1, 6, 8 and 9…
@Vladi, that’s a really interesting new wrinkle in an already exceedingly complicated scheme. I don’t understand at all how this will work in determining potential over-spending penalties or even determining total spend of each club. Also, does this only apply for HSers going to JuCo? Or current JuCo players continuing at JuCo? JuCo has really fallen off a cliff as a potential avenue to develop in baseball. The first JuCo player to be drafted this year came at pick #148. In fact only 4 players of the 315 drafted to date came from JuCo (one each in the 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th rounds). Oof. So I’m not sure how many players this could even affect.
Will
15 Jul 24 at 7:29 pm
It surprised all of us at the time, but I’m coming to think that King was the guy they wanted, unless a Wetherholt miracle happened (with a similarly sized guy). I shared earlier the comment that RJ Anderson at CBS Sports made that scouts from several teams had told him that they were out on Montgomery as a top-10 guy on their boards because of contact concerns, and that was before he broke his ankle. Several pundits, including Law, had King ahead of Moore, and presumably so did several teams. The Nats had indicated (per Steve M) that they weren’t looking at pitching (Yesavage), and obviously they had decided against taking one of the HS shortstops (with which I agree). So that would get them down to Tibbs (an OF they don’t need), Cam Smith (a 3B they don’t need, also with some yellow flags), and King.
I should note that I don’t really believe that King is a full 6-0, but he’s in the Mookie/Bregman range and attacks the ball similarly. He’s only been at a major college for one year and needs some refinement to his pitch selection, but he makes contact (hallelujah). He also doesn’t really have a position — or extensive experience learning a position. The $6M question (OK, $5.95M) is which position do the Nats need him to learn? Abrams is blossoming at SS. House is inching toward being ready at 3B, although he hasn’t really seized it. The most questions seem to lie with Garcia at 2B. (And of course there’s no need for King to be in the OF, unless they’re truly trying to make him into Zobrist.) The Nats drafted King at SS, so presumably that’s where they’ll start him, although it’s it’s a big ask for an inexperienced infielder to learn the most challenging position while also breaking into pro ball.
For the rest . . . they were desperate for catching in the organization and added two with pretty good bats. Ruiz will be around for a while, but they’re still looking for someone to split time with him. Riley Adams and Millas will be out of options by the time Lomavita and Bazzell are ready.
In Dickerson and Diaz, they’ve added a couple of infielders with solid bats. Those guys plus King and Cayden Wallace put a lot of guys in the organization on notice that they need to step it up. They’ve already released Barley. Infante currently is hitting .130 at Wilmington. Kevin Made is at .087 in a brief time at AA and was only at .239 at A+ before being promoted. Phillip Glasser has shown really well at A/A+, but they’re not letting him play SS. Armando Cruz still hits with a wet noodle.
KW
15 Jul 24 at 10:23 pm
Any chance the draft-and-follow deal applies to draft-eligible sophomores? I assume Jared Jones of LSU must have indicated that he’s going back to school, as his name still hasn’t been called. He’s a power 1B/DH who intrigues me for a Nats’ need in that area. He’s #57 on Law’s board.
KW
15 Jul 24 at 10:29 pm
fyi new draft and follow rules re-instaed with 2022 CBA, which I wasn’t aware of until this conversation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_draft#:~:text=The%202022%20CBA%20reinstated%20the,clubs%20before%20the%20following%20draft.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/
Todd Boss
16 Jul 24 at 9:49 am
So it only applies to players drafted rounds 11-20 who choose to go to JUCO. Can still be signed up to the next draft. Interesting. And presumably for $150K or less, since the pool money likely will be gone.
Everyone drafted today can be paid up to $150K without it counting against the pool. I’m sure there are several kids who were drafted yesterday who’ll be forced to take a very small amount who wish that they weren’t called until today.
KW
16 Jul 24 at 10:14 am
@KW, I’m not totally dismissing that King was the guy the Nats wanted all along, but King himself said the Nats hadn’t expressed serious interest until around 30 minutes before he was drafted, which doesn’t say to me “he’s the guy we always wanted”, but rather once the picks became clear, he was the best option on the table. Which is a bit strange, since besides Montgomery’s tumble, the draft went according to plan. So maybe they were dreaming of Wetherholt falling to them? But that always felt like an extremely unlikely scenario, and not something to seriously plan for. So all that said, I really don’t know what to make of it, but I’m very curious to see how these draft bonuses play out, because that’s what doesn’t make sense to me at the moment.
Will
16 Jul 24 at 12:56 pm
It’s too bad we can’t get a few beers in Mike Rizzo and find out, right? There weren’t too many rumors about the Nats this year, but that’s somewhat understandable since they were at the mercy of the board. I think there was a rumor at one point that they were hoping that Wetherholt would fall, and a couple of others that they were thinking/talking under-slot with Lomavita. That would have been a reach of biblical proportions, but it’s also an indication of how much they really liked him. They clearly decided against Montgomery and Rainer (or against their quoted prices). It’s possible that they were on Moore or Griffin and had to scramble when they went earlier.
But yeah, that’s interesting that they hadn’t been in contact with King at all. Given what was on the board I don’t hate the pick, though. There’s a chance that Montgomery becomes a star, but the Nats already really had no need for yet another high-profile OF. They seem to have prioritized middle infielders and catchers (and rightly so).
KW
16 Jul 24 at 2:37 pm
11th — Merritt Beeker, LHP starter from Ball State with a 4.11 ERA but big-time K numbers:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=beeker000mer
KW
16 Jul 24 at 2:40 pm
12th — Alexander Meckley, RHP from Coastal Carolina with ugly numbers (7.52 ERA):
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=meckle000ale
KW
16 Jul 24 at 2:42 pm
13th — Bryant Olson, LHP reliever from Mercer with an astounding 9.8 BB/9. Talk about not being able to hit the broad side of a barn! (But 13.2 K/9 when he does.)
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=olson-005bra
It seems that they’re drafting any arm today in which they see even a hint of potential. All in all, it shows how thin the pitching crop is this year.
KW
16 Jul 24 at 2:46 pm
Are the A’s just drafting by best names? They’ve taken Riley “Really” Huge followed by Ryan Magdic. I’m sure he never got any abuse whatsoever from the opposing dugout!
KW
16 Jul 24 at 3:00 pm
14th — Yoel Tejeda Jr., RHP reliever from Florida State. Speaking of Really Huge — he’s 6-8! He also had a really huge 5.95 ERA and 11 hits per 9.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=tejeda000yoe
KW
16 Jul 24 at 3:03 pm
The stats of these guys in the teens are brutal. Hope there’s a lot more than meets the eye!
Will
16 Jul 24 at 3:25 pm
15th — Sir Jamison Jones, high school catcher from Illinois. Now the Nats step up their name game!
Think they’re sending a message to all the catchers currently in the organization?
KW
16 Jul 24 at 3:31 pm
16th — Nolan Hughes, LHP, Xavier (OH), 6-5, 235:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hughes000nol
He’s truly unhittable (3.8 H/9), probably because guys are scared to stand too close to the plate (an INSANE 13.2 BB/9)! The ones he didn’t walk he struck out (16.6 K/9), resulting in “only” a 4.33 ERA.
KW
16 Jul 24 at 3:58 pm
17th — Gavin Bruni, LHP, Ohio State:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bruni-000gav
Big 10 starter with a 6.19 ERA and 7.2 BB/9.
KW
16 Jul 24 at 4:09 pm
My takeaway from day 3 is that the new guys in charge of scouting care nothing about (a lack of) control in a college arm. Pretty startling how consistent this is across all the picks.
Will
16 Jul 24 at 4:15 pm
I guess they’re looking at spin rate and things they think they can fix. Other than the 11th round pick they’re sure not looking at the numbers, which is good because they might get retina damage.
KW
16 Jul 24 at 4:26 pm
@Will – That’s a very interesting observation. Especially if you look at the improved control we saw this season organization wide.
Maybe we can’t fix your swing issues, but we can get you repeating your delivery!
The other thing I’m seeing is, no one is getting more than the $150k, right? I’m curious about what the final bonuses will be for those top few picks.
SMS
16 Jul 24 at 4:33 pm
SMS, the 11th-round guy may be “worth” more than $150K, but he’s the only one I see. They may have to go over that for the high school catcher as well. All that slot saving we thought they were doing with the earlier picks may not really get saved.
KW
16 Jul 24 at 4:36 pm
18th — Teo Banks, OF, Tulane:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=banks-000teo
19 doubles and 14 homers, so pretty good gap power.
KW
16 Jul 24 at 4:38 pm
19th — Ryan Minckler, pitcher, Niagara U:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=minckl000rya
Send him straight to Rochester to eat innings in April. He’ll be used to it.
KW
16 Jul 24 at 4:49 pm
KW, maybe not so sure of that. Minckler was born and raised in Thailand. Think he’ll probably not be too fond of those April days either (though he did move to NH for HS).
Will
16 Jul 24 at 5:06 pm
20th — Colby Shelton, 3B/SS, U of Florida:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=shelto002col
Here’s one who may get some money thrown at him, a draft-eligible sophomore whose power is almost as prodigious as his K rate.
KW
16 Jul 24 at 5:13 pm
Shelton:
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/colby-shelton-701333
KW
16 Jul 24 at 5:14 pm
In round 20, the Nats FINALLY take a guy who should command some use of those earlier round savings: Colby Shelton, 3B/SS Sophomore from Florida. Major swing and miss tendencies, but big power (20 HR in 62 G).
MLB.com had him as the 133rd best prospect, which is 4th/5th round. But as a sophomore, he’s in a strong position to demand even higher slot than normal. The Nats are probably looking at high 6 figures/low 7 figures to pry him away from his junior year. Not sure if those kind of numbers will add up though…
Will
16 Jul 24 at 5:14 pm
One would think that they’ve got the pool savings to entice Shelton. If they do, they will have really thrown down the gauntlet to the infielders currently in the system. Even guys like House and Morales have competition now. Wallace will be coming over at the AA level, and King and Shelton could end the summer there.
FWIW, Shelton would have been a teammate of Pinckney’s at Bama in 2023.
KW
16 Jul 24 at 5:28 pm