The boys at MLBPipeline (Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo, et al) have done a mid-season reshuffling of all 30 teams’ prospect lists, and the Nats system looks demonstrably different in the wake of the draft, trades, and over/under performance of some players.
This is a discussion of where the system stands as per one of the leading pundits in the game.
Below is the current top 30 (also online at this link, which is dynamic and shows the current status of the list at all times). I’ve added a new column that looks at the last few MLBpipeline top 30 releases, going back to the Mar 2024 initial list, to show the general range of where players have been the entire time as a comparison to where they are now.
| Rank Now | Ranks Earlier 2024 | Last Name | First Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-2 always | Crews | Dylan | OF (CF) |
| 2 | 3 | House | Brady | SS/3B |
| 3 | 10-13 range | Sykora | Travis | RHP (Starter) |
| 4 | 11-12 range | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) |
| 5 | not yet drafted | King | Seaver | SS |
| 6 | not yet acquired | Clemmey | Alex | LHP (Starter) |
| 7 | not yet drafted | Dickerson | Luke | SS/CF |
| 8 | 4-5 range | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) |
| 9 | 4-5 range | Morales | Yohandy | 3B |
| 10 | not yet drafted | Lomavita | Caleb | C |
| 11 | not yet acquired | Wallace | Cayden | 3B |
| 12 | 7-9 range | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) |
| 13 | 8-10 range | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) |
| 14 | not yet drafted | Bazzell | Kevin | C/3B |
| 15 | 13-15 rage | Hurtado | Victor | OF |
| 16 | 20-24 range | Feliz | Angel | 3B/SS |
| 17 | 27-30 range | Lara | Andry | RHP (Starter) |
| 18 | 13-14 range | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) |
| 19 | not yet acquired | Stuart | Tyler | RHP (Starter) |
| 20 | not yet acquired | Ramirez Jr. | Rafael | SS |
| 21 | 6-8 range | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) |
| 22 | 18-20 range | Brzykcy | Zach | RHP (Reliever) |
| 23 | 9-10 range | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) |
| 24 | not yet drafted | Kent | Jackson | LHP (Starter) |
| 25 | 19-21 range | Made | Kevin | SS |
| 26 | 28-30 range | Grissom | Marquis | RHP (Reliever) |
| 27 | 15-16 range | Rutledge | Jackson | RHP (Starter) |
| 28 | 17-18 range | Pinckney | Andrew | OF (Corner) |
| 29 | 30+ range | Ribalta | Orlando | RHP (reliever) |
| 30 | 35+ range | Lord | Brad | RHP (Starter) |
| 30+ | 29-30 range | Cox | Brennar | OF (CF) |
| 30+ | 26-28 range | Cruz | Armando | SS |
| 30+ | 25-28 range | White | TJ | OF (Corner) |
| 30+ | 24-27 range | Saenz | Dustin | RHP (Starter) |
| 30+ | 22-25 range | Baker | Darren | 2B/OF |
| 30+ | 21-23 range | Henry | Cole | RHP (Starter) |
| 30+ | 23-26 range | De La Rosa | Jeremy | OF (Corner) |
Here’s some thoughts on the current top 30 on this list, how they’ve risen/fallen, plus all the names who have appeared in MLBPipeline’s top 30 lists this year who are now pushed out, and then at the bottom a list of all the graduations. All stats listed are as of my looking them up and writing them here on 8/14/24.
- With Wood’s graduation, Dylan Crews ascends to #1. He’s got an .814 OPS figure in AAA this year, which sounds good … but when you compare his 2024 to what his fellow top 5 college draftees are doing (Skenes; started ASG. Langford, destroyed minor league pitching and started the season in the majors) he almost seems like a disappointment right now. I think its slightly telling that the team has now called up four different hitters (Blankenhorn, Call, Tena, Chapparo) instead of Crews in the wake of trades and releases.
- House Remains #2. He finally got pushed to AAA, where he’s got a sub-300 OBP figure. But, it’s also telling to remember he’s 21. If he had gone to college, he’d have just been drafted a month ago and would be sitting in XST.
- Sykora and Susana now 3/4 in the system. And as they should be, based on their complete dominance this season. Sykora should have been promoted already with the numbers and accolades he’s got in the last month. Sykora even made his way onto the MLBpipeline top 100 for all the minors. Meanwhile, Susana is now #61 on ESPN/Kiley McDaniels top 100 for the entire minors. That’s pretty impressive.
- Our big-3 round 2024 draftees (King, Dickerson, Lomavita) come in at #5, #7, and #10. Only a handful of our 2024 draftees have even made it out of XST (the above three plus Bazzell), and only King & Lomavita have been assigned to a real team for their pro debuts as of this writing.
- Clemmey comes in at #6. Is this a little high? Perhaps. But it is telling that in his first pro season he went straight into the low-A rotation and has been there the entire time, with massive K/9 numbers and decent BAA, even if his ERA and WHIP show a lot of room for improvement.
- Cavalli has slipped, from a consensus top 3 to now #8 on this list. I don’t blame them; A 12-month recovery has now been delayed by “dead arm” and “the flu” and perhaps next week we’ll hear that he has the bubonic plague and then maybe after that a mysterious soft tissue injury.
- Morales is also slipping, though he was injured for a big chunk of this season. He’ll need another year at AA just to get his value back. Meanwhile, he’s being passed on the pecking order for 1B/DH types (since he’ll be completely blocked by House at 3B), and will need to bash his way up over the likes of Yepez, Chapparo, Meneses, Blankenhorn, and whichever veteran FA/Joey Gallo v2.0 we sign this off-season
- Cayden Wallace at #11 just got dumped to the 60-day DL; per some googling, he has an Oblique Strain and has been out since first week of May. Does that sound like a long time for that injury? We’re at 3 months.
- Lile, Hassell, and Hurtado are all treading water, being lower on the list than they were earlier but all due to initial placements above them pushing them down. Nothing to report here for now. These guys aren’t impressing or overly disappointing for now.
- Angel Feliz has gotten bumped up decently, from the 20-24 range to #16 here. The 17yr old SS made the DSL all-star team and is slashing .308/.385/.449 this year. Wow, when was the last time we had a solid hitter matriculate out of the DSL? Luis Garcia? Juan Soto? It’s early, but after the sh*t show that was the 2023 IFA class, its refreshing to at least have a couple guys who look like they’ll move on. By the way, as far as I can tell the best hitter out of the 23IFA class right now is looking like Carlos Tavarez, a 1B/OF who had a .869 OPS figure in the FCL this year. Not one other 23IFA who even made it to the mainland had an OPS figure much above .600 (Marcano, Soto, Acevedo, Batista, Maricuto, and Arias).
- Andry Lara now sits in the #17 spot, having moved up from the 27-30 range. Um; ok. He’s 21 and in AA, where he’s been for most of the year after dominating the first month of High-A. If he was playing by American rules he’d be sitting in XST right now. For me he’s a lot better prospect than #17. I think this is a top 10 prospect.
- Green: significantly dropped to #21 from the 6-8 range, and before that even higher. We’ve debated Green for a while in this space. His stat line is comical this year: .198 BA and a ridiculous 171 Ks in 88 games. He’s repeating low-A. I agree with Keith Law’s take on Green, where he called out Green by name as a golden example of a player who NEEDED the former Short-A league that’s now gone. Instead he’s jumped straight to low-A and has had to stick there. I hope he can rebound, I really do, but his prospect rank is where it deserves to be for now.
- Brzycky, Grissom, Ribalta: I just don’t see why RHP relievers are ranked as prospects. They come in at 22, 26, 30 on these rankings. They’re fungible, replaceable assets who generally are good one year (Rainey in 2020 and 2022, Weems in 2023) then awful the next (Rainey in 2021 and 2024, Weems in 2022 and then again in 2024). Ribalta just got called up; i wouldn’t be surprised if he had a 2.00 ERA this year and a 6.00 era next or vice versa. It’s like ranking backup middle infielders or 4th outfielders.
- Pinckney has taken a fall in the rankings; his swing looked long and slow in spring training and it hasn’t really improved. 119 Ks in 108 games for just 6 homers isn’t going to cut it. I know a lot of readers here were super high on him coming out of Alabama, but he may have plateaued already. He may get pushed up to AAA at some point, but where does he fit in?
- Lord coming in at #30. Not sure what else you want the guy to do; he’s the same draft as Tyler Stuart who is ranked 10 spots higher but is a level below him. If Lord was a 2nd rounder he’d be in the top 100 right now. He’s now been in the AAA rotation for nearly 2 months (8 starts) and he’s still holding a 3.27 ERA there.
Guys who were in the top 30 but who are now pushed out:
- Brenner Cox: He’s getting a long run as a starter in low-A w/o the batting average to sustain it.
- Armando Cruz: ranked solely b/c of his signing bonus for a while, he just got an undeserved promotion to High-A so that Seaver King could start in Fredericksburg.
- TJ White remains in the 19-20 range for other pundits but is now outside top 30 for MLBpipeline. Not sure why some pundits still rate him; he’s hitting .202 as he repeats high-A.
- Dustin Saenz: Seemed like a possible sneaky starter prospect like a Parker or Lord, but got hurt and has struggled in his return from the DL in AA.
- Darren Baker: has played a solid season in AAA but has not gotten an opportunity since neither Vargas or Nunez has gotten hurt. Has been playing a ton of LF to give him some positional flexibility, but he remains a power-less slap hitter at a time when you need to have some power no matter where you play.
- Cole Henry: what are we going to do with this guy? He was our #3 prospect for a while post draft, but just can’t seem to stay healthy.
- Jeremy De La Rosa: was hopefully the last example of a ridiculous 40-man addition that this team will make, putting a guy on the roster who was in low-A and had zero chance of getting picked. He was dfa’d out outrighted in November 2023, which means we can’t ever outright him again. He played well to start the season in low-A, earned a promotion but hasn’t hit since. He got promoted to AA in July to fill the gaps left when Crews got bumped up and Hassell got hurt, but he didn’t deserve it. He’s continued to hit sub .200 since and probably should be back in A-Ball.
Anyone else worth mentioning?
- Andrew Alvarez: i’m not sure they’ve ever ranked him, but he’s in the AAA rotation and faces an interesting Rule-5 dilemma this off-season.
- Acevedo and Solano, our two $1.3M 2023IFA signings: nowhere to be seen.
- Rodney Theophile and Michael Cuevas: youngsters in the AA rotation mix; I wonder if they can get some prospect love soon.
- How about Jose Atencio, 22yr old doing well in High-A rotation?
Graduations from Mar 2024:
- Trey Lipscomb: 29-32 range; has struggled in the majors, which fits given his prospect status. An infielder in the 20s would have a ceiling as a backup, and that seems to be where he is right now.
- Jacob Young: 17-18 range: As is often discussed, he’s drastically outperforming his prospect ranking, and sits 2nd on the 2024 team in bWAR behind Abrams. It’s almost entirely on the strength of his defense though since he has an 85 OPS+ figure.
- James Wood: 1-2 range: has not disappointed in his MLB debut; 134 OPS+ as of this writing.
- Mitchell Parker: 20-22 range: has drastically outperformed his prospect status since arriving in the majors, which is being attributed to the Nats pitching staff. But he’s been out-performing his reputation his entire pro career.
- DJ Herz: 12-14 range: He’s performing as I would have expected Parker to do, based on prospect reputation … 4.41 ERA, 91 ERA+. He probably needs more AAA time.
- Note: I agree with those shops that stick by 50ip/150ABs versus service time for Rookie status, but the following three guys are “graduated” per service time.
- Drew Millas: 18-20 range (graduated by service time not by ABs): hitting well enough in AAA but didn’t hit at all when he spelled Riley Adams on the MLB roster. He’ll be #3 on our 3-catcher depth chart for the forseeable future.
- Nasim Nunez: 19-20 range (graduated by service time not by ABs). I’m amazed he’s lasted this long based on his utter lack of any performance, and he’s done little to make me think he’s really even a prospect honestly. He’ll go to AAA and sit there for 3 years as a spare-part infielder.
- Israel Pineda: 26-28 range (graduated by service time not by ABs). He’s much younger than Millas, but where has his bat gone? He hit .280 in 2022 in a AA call-up, but is now hitting .157 there two years on.
Re: Cayden Wallace
While out on a rehab assignment for the oblique, he was hit by a pitch in an ACL game on 7/6/2024 which broke a rib.
Mick Reinhard
14 Aug 24 at 1:24 pm
General observation that got a little discussion on Luke’s site a day or two ago: whatever the Nat organization is doing differently with pitcher develop, it’s working like gangbusters. Parker and Herz in the majors, Lara and Susana bouncing back from substandard years to significant prospect form, Lord rapidly advancing out of nowhere, Sykora killing it in his debut season. In a short sample size, Nat tweaks on Tyler Stuart seem to have made him almost unhittable. It’s hard to remember this organization ever having so many super-positive pitching developments in one season.
On the flip side . . . can the pitching guys also work with the hitters? Besides Wood, name a hitter who is living up to/exceeding expectations. (Phillip Glasser is a 24-year-old still at A+ and doesn’t count, but a nice story nevertheless.) Wood and House are doing OK but not really playing at the level expected. Lile is sorta holding his own at AA at age 21, although 4 homers in 101 games ain’t gonna cut it for a corner OF slot. Among many of the others, there are varying degrees of dumpster fires, and enough K’s to power wind turbines.
KW
14 Aug 24 at 1:34 pm
Mick: thanks for the insider knowledge!
Todd Boss
14 Aug 24 at 1:46 pm
I think that Crews being “passed over” has a lot more to do with other factors than it does with his performance. Other factors like the Nats wanting to keep him from losing rookie status this season so that he could potentially be eligible for the Promotion Incentive Pool. Like the Nats needing to look at some players (Tena, Chaparro) to analyze whether to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. And since Tena and Chaparro are infielders they were called up for positions that Crews doesn’t play. Crews has been increasingly on a tear: last 90 days – .800 OPS; last 28 days: .921 OPS; last 7 days: 1.167 OPS. I expect that before the month is out he will be up and Blankenhorn will be gone.
John C.
14 Aug 24 at 5:43 pm
I think that it’s fair to say that Nasim Nunez has an utter lack of any performance as a hitter. Although his wRC+ – 89 – is better than Jacob Young’s – 84 – that’s in just 28 plate appearances and includes a .353 BABIP.
I will say this, though. I got to see him play live a couple of times while Abrams was dealing with a back issue, and my goodness Nunez can play defense. Covers a lot of ground and has a seriously strong arm. I expect him to start at SS in AAA next year and serve as the “in case of emergency” SS if Abrams misses a lot of time.
John C.
14 Aug 24 at 5:53 pm
@Todd, on your comment on “I just don’t see why RHP relievers are ranked as prospects.”
We just traded a good, but not great right handed reliever for our now #10 and #11 prospects.
Relievers are extremely valuable, whether we like it or not. It’s absurd to me too how much value teams are willing to give up to acquire one of these guys for two months, and yet this has been repeatedly happening for several years now, and seemingly only increasing with each successive trade deadline.
I hope Rizzo goes back to the reliever dumpster heap again this winter. It’s a wildly effective way to acquire prospects for almost no cost or risk.
Will
14 Aug 24 at 6:16 pm
@Todd – Following up on Will’s comment, future backup middle infielders and OF4s also get ranked on these lists all the time. Lipscomb’s graduated, but he has always been slated as a utility guy and you note (and seem to agree with) his hypothetical placement in the late 20s. And while the error bars are higher in both directions, so there’s still upside to dream on, most of the recent scouting on Lile and Hassell has them as OF4s too. A quality backup on a rookie deal has significant surplus value, and even in a pretty good system, that’s enough to make the rankings.
Especially in cases where the scouts are agreeing that their stuff looks good and they “should” be effective, and it’s not just good stats across a small-ish sample, I absolutely think top reliever prospects belong on the back ends of these lists.
SMS
15 Aug 24 at 11:29 am
JohnC: good point on Crews. Honestly, I thought the moment we moved Winker (and then Thomas) he’d be up. But he wasn’t. Perhaps its because he was (at that time) just kind of flailing, not on the tear he’s currently.
Todd Boss
15 Aug 24 at 12:07 pm
Will/SMS on my comment on relievers … I should have clarified. TOP END, Closer-quality relievers are prospect worthy. Middle relief RHPs are a dime a dozen and shouldn’t be ranked. the
Harvey was a closer-quality guy, and indeed netted us some solid prospects. I think it as a huge overpay for Harvey honestly .. .but good on Rizzo for getting it. Finnegan is a better arm and couldn’t get moved, which kind of illustrates my point that these relievers are just crazy variable in their performance.
Ranking the likes of Ribalta or Brzycky is more along the lines of what I’m talking about. Unless These guys turn into the next incarnation of Mariano Rivera they’re a dime a dozen and are fungible assets. Fungible/4A/near replacement level guys aren’t prospects. Harvey had a bwar of 0.2 for us before getting moved. Our vaunted closer Finnegan? 1.0 for the season. Most of our relievers’ seasonal bWAR figure has a “0.” in front of it.
Todd Boss
15 Aug 24 at 12:13 pm
Overall, I think it’s a good list. Very optimistic on the draft class, and I hope they’re right. I do worry sometimes that they get carried away and overrate the shiny new things.
I also think you all have convinced me on dropping Cavalli. If/when we’s back on a regular rehab schedule and performing, he can move back up, but as of right now, there is just too high a chance that the injury has totally derailed his career.
Other than that, my biggest quibble is maybe Clemmey being a bit too high, which Todd also calls out. To me he’s closer to Susana a year ago than Susana today, but we’re only talking about 5 or 6 slots difference. He’s still a very promising prospect.
Oh, also I want to call out TJ White, who has had a great second half. I think it is correct to drop him out of the top 30, but I think he’d be back in the mix for next year’s list if he keeps it up.
SMS
15 Aug 24 at 12:27 pm
@Todd – If you’re arguing Brzycky shouldn’t be on the list, then you’re arguing that Cox or Baker or De La Rosa or Henry should be instead. And I just don’t think that holds up if you breakdown their expected impact, even by WAR. What do you think is a fair median estimate for Brzycky’s career WAR? 2.5? Do you think JDLR’s or Henry’s is higher than that? The backends of these lists aren’t where you’re finding future all stars, let alone HOFers.
Also, even aside from the usual FIP vs RA balance that complicates WAR for all pitchers, I’m pretty sure WAR doesn’t correctly value relievers. I’ll need to think more about why, because it’s not just leverage / WPA stuff.
I think there’s value created by covering innings that’s not accounted for. If two relievers offered true replacement level rate stats (so, like 5 ERA/FIP) and one can only pitch 1 inning every four days and the other could take serious abuse and pitch whenever called upon for as long needed, they wouldn’t be equally valuable. The local replacement level, given the actual roster and everyone’s availability, can fall well below the global “replacement level” on any given day and the flexibility that teams have to choose when to call on specific relievers enables them to capture that value, even if it doesn’t show up as positive WAR.
I agree with you that relievers’ value is capped at about the level of a quality backup position player, but that’s certainly enough value to get the best handful of them included in these lists.
SMS
15 Aug 24 at 1:21 pm
They have Brzycky at #22. What’s more valuable, the 5th RHP in a bullpen or one of two backup infielders on a MLB roster? Because that’s the argument between Brzycky and Baker.
I’d absolutely rank Cox, Cruz, Saenz, even guys like Alvarez (AAA starter), theophile (AA starter) over Brzycky. Henry looks like he’s lost to injury.
If Brzycky is so awesome, why isn’t he closing anywhere? (2024 saves: zero). At least Ribalta was used in save situations this year.
There was an article earlier this week on fangraphs I believe about how Tanner Rainey is having the “least leveraged” season in the history of the game. It’s an interesting read, clearly showing how the Nats, for some reason, are completely babying/protecting Rainey this year from having to deal with any impactful innings. And even given that he’s still awful this year…. but two years ago? closer-quality. This is my frustration with relievers in general, and this is why I don’t believe they should be ranked in anyone’s top 30.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tanner-rainey-is-the-lowest-leverage-reliever-in-baseball/
Todd Boss
15 Aug 24 at 2:40 pm
I wouldn’t put too much stock in who gets saves in the minors. For an injury rehab like Brzykcy especially, you have to make sure he’s getting his work in on schedule. Making sure he’s finishing games just isn’t a priority.
Rainey’s a strange case and they’re clearly giving him a very long and gentle road back despite this being his penultimate year of control. The Nats can be very loyal sometimes (though not all the time, of course). Rainey has shown improvement over the season, but I’m not sure if it’s going to be enough to save him from the roster crunch this winter.
I’m actually not sure we’re that far off in how we are valuing relief prospects, and you’re definitely not wrong about the volatility. I think the difference is that you are way higher than I am on fringe bats and starters.
I’m happy to make a gentlemen’s bet about the total career WAR of Brzycky, Ribalta, Sinclair and Grissom vs that of Cox, Baker, Cruz and De La Rosa. (I’d rather not include the similar ranked starters because I think them having relief conversion as a potential career path muddies the comparison we’re trying to understand. I’m also more in on a couple of them than I am these fringe bats.)
SMS
15 Aug 24 at 3:11 pm
A guy I’d keep somewhere in the top 30 would be Brenner Cox. Yes, as Todd mentioned, he’s hitting .212. But, his OPS is .730 as he’s getting on base at a .361 clip this year.
He’s athletic, fast, has some pop and is only 20 years old. There’s still room to dream on what he could be (even if the %s are low he ever comes close to reaching his potential).
Chris
16 Aug 24 at 9:14 am