With a bit of advance fanfare (news leaked on Friday 8/23/24 for his 8/26/24 call-up), the cornerstone of the Nats rebuild Dylan Crews has been called up.
He’ll take his place in an outfield that started the year Winker/Rosario/Thomas and which is set to end it with the all-prospect, all-under 24, all pre-arb set of players Wood/Young/Crews. I didn’t think we’d get to this point until at least May of 2025, and honestly I thought a year ago it’d be Hassell instead of Young, but here we are.
Crews’ AAA line in total (.265/.340/.455) doesn’t really look that dominant, or that worthy of getting called up. Even his improved August numbers (.289/.356/.513) bely a bit of a patience problem (just 5 walks in 18 games). But, consider that Bryce Harper got called up with pretty middling AAA numbers (.243/.325/.365) and went on to win the NL ROY in 2012. Speaking of Rookie of the year, the timing of the call-up should be just enough to preserve Crew’s rookie status (150 PAs) for next year while getting him some big league looks as the team plays out the string.
And why not call him up now? Even if Alex Call hadn’t hurt his foot, it makes zero sense to play anyone else for extended periods of time in the OF at this point. Blankenhorn? We’ve already outrighted him once. Garrett? The fact that he remains on the 40-man but has been passed over multiple times for obvious outfield vacancies should tell us everything we need to know regarding the state of his career after last year’s gruesome leg injury, unfortunately. Meneses? Can he even play the outfield? Gallo? why is he even still on the team at this point? In the final game before his call-up, the Nats rolled Gallo out to start in RF and we got the most Gallo-esque performance possible: 4 PAs, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk, and he now sports a season average of .165.
So, call him up, sell some tickets, let him get licked in meaningless games for a 4th place team playing out the string, and plan on 2025 come out firing with all our young guns in the lineup (Wood, Crews, Abrams, Garcia, Young, etc).
This is actually an essential trial, to see if Crews is ready to start 2025 in the Show. Frankly, I’d give House an MLB audition as well. Why not?
There’s a learning curve at every level, but particularly this one. Look at DJ Herz. After his first seven starts, his ERA was 5.17. After he one-hit the Braves yesterday over five innings, it’s down to 3.84.
KW
26 Aug 24 at 1:16 pm
Why not give House an MLB audition? Because he’s not really good at AAA yet. He’s posting a wRC+ of 94 with a BB% of 3.5%. He’s only 21, and to me it’s not worth it to start his MLB clock on the “hey, it MIGHT work!” theory of management. Wood was destroying AAA when he was called up. While Crews was only posting a 105 wRC+ for the season when he was called up, he was on a 28 day run of .265/.344/.470/.814. He’s also a year older than House.
John C.
27 Aug 24 at 9:48 am
I’m not at all convinced House should be promoted. However, he too is on a 24 day run of .287/.336/.446/.782, not all too different from Crews’ performance, which apparently merited a promotion.
Personally, I wouldn’t have promoted Crews (nor House) just yet, but I am happy to see that Crews was. 2024 has always been about preparing the 2025 Nats (if the cards fall right), but more likely, the 2026 Nats for an extended playoff run. The Nats didn’t perfect the timing of the rebuild, with Abrams and Gore’s (plus Gray, if you’re believers in him) service time clocks ticking, creating a bit of additional urgency for the rest of the prospect cavalry to arrive.
Where I’d have been more bold with promotions is with the fringe prospects/organizational pitching depth kind of players in the system, i.e. your Mitchell Parkers. Guys who perform solidly in the minors but don’t have the prospect reputation to generate real buzz. I’d normally include Millas in this group, but the systematic underperformance of our hitters, doesn’t really leave any other bats worth noting. It’s mostly pitchers, and especially relievers, as the Nats have struck gold with Parker and Herz this season, negating the need to trial guys like Lord or Lara. But how come Tanner Rainey (or Jordan Weems, or Robert Garcia), with one year of team control left, gets an entire season of bad performances, while Orlando Ribalta gets 2 bad innings before getting demoted? Meanwhile, downstream of DC, Matt Cronin, Daison Acosta, Jack Sinclair, Brendan Collins, Moises Diaz, Anthony Arguelles, Miguel Gomez, just to name a few, are being handled with kid gloves, while Marquis Grissom or Carlos Romero get aggressive promotion schedules. Cronin and Acosta, for example, will be free agents this winter, so if they fail with too quick of a rise, no harm. They’ll be a footnote in history like Jackson Tetreault or James Bourque. But maybe they surprise everyone, like Jake Irvin. Unfortunately, having not transitioned ANY of our relief prospects to the majors this season, means we’re going to have to tolerate a bunch of really rocky outings next season and 2026. I hope this doesn’t turn into a 2016-2019 Nats scenario, where a lot of progress is undone by an untested bullpen still finding its footing and sorting the chaff from the wheat.
Will
27 Aug 24 at 11:33 am
@Will – I wonder if part of the issue is that relievers are so volatile and pitch so few innings that the information gained by the team during the cup of coffee isn’t worth much. But I agree, I’d rather see Ribalta or Brzykcy than Barnes or Rainey.
I don’t agree about Robert Garcia though. His run prevention has been poor, but his peripherals are really strong. And he’s under control for 5 more years with all three options. No chance he’s getting waived.
(Also, we’ve discussed this before, but I believe Cronin is under control for another year. I will say, though, that if you’re right about him and he’s a MiFA this winter, then slow walking him like they have is a pretty inexplicable misstep.)
SMS
27 Aug 24 at 1:42 pm
There’s nothing that 30 MLB games for a team playing out the string would do to “harm” the development of a prospect, either Crews or House. If anything, they’ll see how much harder they need to work. It’s too bad that there really aren’t veteran hitters who they can watch and learn from, though, particularly about plate discipline (unless they want to “learn” what not to do from Gallo.)
The better argument for not promoting House now would be to see what they’ve got in Tena. Or let those two alternate at DH.
Use the rest of this season as extended spring training. Let’s find out who is close to ready and who isn’t. Reps for Vargas and Gallo tell us nothing.
KW
27 Aug 24 at 2:59 pm
@SMS, I definitely don’t think Garcia should be waived. There’s a valuable pitcher in there, who’s indeed suffered from some bad luck. However, that shouldn’t make him untouchable. As you said, he still has all 3 options. There have been times where he’s looked really mentally weak under pressure, and I don’t think a demotion would have been bad for him to rebuild confidence in a lower pressure situation, given his options available. But fully agree that Rainey, Weems or Barnes should have faced criticism long before they got to Garcia.
On Cronin, I hope you’re right about his extra year of minor league control. That still, however, doesn’t explain the handling of him this season. Nor does it inspire any hope of some undecipherable 4D chess move with regards to his development. He’s 26. He’d reached AAA two entire years ago (and generally had good success at – a 3.96 ERA in 48 G, a level he still has yet to return to!). Playing him for almost 5 months in A ball makes absolutely no sense, insanely good results aside.
Similar stories with guys like Jack Sinclair, who ended 2023 in AAA, but even after posting excellent numbers all season long, still finds himself a level below where he finished last season…
I get it, this is pretty petty criticism. None of these guys are potential All Stars. But as the Angels have proven, having the best two players in baseball doesn’t guarantee success either. Baseball is all about small margins, and you need seemingly inconsequential role players to succeed too to have a good team. And this feels like a missed opportunity, particularly now that we’ve traded off our most valuable bullpen pieces and should have a few vacancies there now. If Cronin or Sinclair had been promoted earlier in the season, they might be in the picture for some innings in September. But they weren’t, so we’ll be stuck with the same lousy relievers who had no trade value at the deadline this season, and not learning much about the bullpen talent we’re brimming with in AA and below.
It’s perhaps all the more frustrating because the Nats have been much more proactive and aggressive with the batting and SP prospects (Sykora excepted), while our bullpen depth in the minors has been incredibly good compared to past seasons.
Will
27 Aug 24 at 6:10 pm
I agree about the curious handling of relievers, but it’s worth noting that it’s also nothing new. It has been the organizational modus operandi for as long as I can remember. The one exception was the 2015 draft class, from which they gave rapid promotions to Koda Glover, Andrew Lee, and Ryan Brinley, with Glover in a majors a year after he was drafted. Major injuries felled all three, which perhaps tempered their aggressiveness. But management of the farm system has turned over almost entirely since that time.
There have been very few MLB-successful relievers drafted and developed by the organization, despite years where they hardly drafted anything but pitchers. Wander Suero had a brief period when he was very good.
As we’ve discussed many times, the organization also has been very reluctant to switch failing starters to relief. Even now, they’ve finally sorta made Adon a reliever, but not Rutledge or Ward.
KW
28 Aug 24 at 10:26 am
Interesting take in the Athletic (subscription) by David Aldridge about what Crews’s arrival means, and how much work is still left to do in the Nats’ rebuild:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5724547/2024/08/27/dylan-crews-debut-nationals-next-steps/
I love that he starts off pointing out that there should be no whining about money when the Lerners have never even bothered to sell the stadium naming rights.
KW
28 Aug 24 at 12:48 pm
There is another good reason not to bring House up. We have to see if Jose Tena is the utility man of the future. Vargas is great, but will age out of that job in a year or two. 3B is the most natural place to give Tena ABs, and the team a chance to win a few games. However, the real question is whether he can play adequately as the backup SS every 26-man roster needs.
Ebenezer Scrooge
29 Aug 24 at 8:34 am
This Crews kid might have a little promise. Certainly a fun start to his MLB career. I still think his ceiling comp is more Rendon than someone like Harper, although he does have more speed than Tony Two Bags.
Speaking Rendon, I mentioned the other day that Tena is the 20th guy to start at 3B for the Nats since TTB left. I just saw an even more amazing stat — since signing Rendon to the mega-contract (which has made him the high-paid player ever at third base), the Angels have had to use 27 other guys at 3B.
KW
29 Aug 24 at 9:37 am
So far, Tena is showing he’s NOT the future at 3B. 5 errors in 16 games is highly concerning. But maybe it’ll take time to adjust, as he’d previously mostly played 2B/SS.
However, it got me thinking. Abrams’ defense at SS continues to be awful. Since the Padres used him as a SS/2B, I always considered his future to be at 2B, if his defense at short didn’t improve significantly. It made even better sense when Luis Garcia was floundering there. Garcia is a new man, but Abrams continues to be awful at SS. He’s arguably gotten worse.
However, he does have a good arm. What if Abrams’ future lies at 3B? Tena is meant to have solid SS defense (where he played the vast majority of the time in the minors), unlike Abrams. Why not swap them in the infield? It certainly couldn’t be much worse than the current arrangement.
Then if House is knocking on the promotion door next year, we figure things out. But until then, it’s probably wise to expand the possible future options.
Will
29 Aug 24 at 9:44 am
It’s interesting–Wood appears to have Harper-type talent but a Rendon-type demeanor, whereas Crews appears to have Rendon-type talent but a Harper-type demeanor.
I’ve seen Wood ABs where he suffers *horrible* strike calls and just takes his medicine quietly. Even a rookie Harper would have lost his mind in those sorts of situations. Crews, by contrast, strikes me as very feisty.
Derek
29 Aug 24 at 11:48 am
To Derek’s point, I think it’s good that the fire and ice of the next generation are coming up together. There always seemed to be some veteran resentment (the Zim camp) of Harper’s feistiness, but perhaps there won’t be now if they’re of the same cohort.
It’s interesting that the current club has almost no vets. The only one of any stature is Corbin, and he may be playing out his string in a Nat uniform. Gallo and Vargas are just hanging onto careers right now and likely won’t be around next year.
Will they be counting on leadership to emerge from the younger guys? Perhaps they will bring in a few grizzled vets for next summer, but unless one of them is named Soto, I don’t know where they’re going to play regularly. As Will outlined, they’ve got a number of guys in the 2B/SS/3B mix, and that’s not counting Lipscomb or Seaver King. Chaparro allegedly can play 3B as well, as can Morales, although both figure to be more 1B/DH types.
KW
29 Aug 24 at 12:53 pm
Vet/Clubhouse presence: I remember seeing Zuckerman perhpas talking about the “leaders” in the young clubhouse right now, given that Abrams (the natural choice) is super quiet and essentially the rest of the roster is too. its left the leaders to be Corbin (soon to be out) and a couple of relievers. It’s hard for relievers to be the voice of reason in a clubhouse b/c htey’re so volatile. So yeah this team needs a presence.
If Crews starts hitting, he’s certainly got the confidence to serve in that role, which would be a great role for him for the next decade or so. It would take pressure off of seemingly demure guys like Abrahms and Wood (and House; he seems in the same mold), it would take pressure off non-native speaking regulars like Ruiz and Garcia. All you need is one leader (think Jeter for the Yankees for his career) to allow the rest of the team to cook.
Todd Boss
30 Aug 24 at 8:57 am