So, MLB collectively breathed a sigh of relief when the two juggernaut franchises of the league (the Yankees and the Dodgers) advanced with relative ease to face off against each other for the 2024 World Series title.
We avoided the hapless Cleveland Indians in the series (quick: name 3 players on the Indians right now without looking at baseball reference) and we avoided a subway series that would actively alienate most of the baseball world. Instead, the WS broadcasters get a dream lineup of super stars on both teams, so we can fawn over the pending FA to be Juan Soto, or the 10-win Aaron Judge, or the every-once-in-a-while I blast a ball 475 feet Giancarlo Stanton from the Bronx bombers. They also get Shohei Ohtani, who gets to the series in his first year away from the hapless Angels franchise.
They’ll get dueling unanimous MVPs and what should be an offense-first series thanks to the steady decline of starting pitching in the league.
We also see, first hand, the power of payroll this year; both teams are top 5 in payroll (Dodgers 2nd, Yankees 5th) as were fellow playoff teams Philly (#1), San Diego (#3) , Houston (#4), and Atlanta (#6). Most of the rest of the playoff field were in at least the top half of payroll.
I know this blog is named after pitching … but nobody can really get that excited about the pitching matchups we’re gonna see. Maybe we get Cole vs Yamamoto in game one, but everything after that is TBD.
Are you excited for Yankees-Dodgers?
Well, MY “dream” World Series would involve the DC nine, and the guy in the photo still playing for them, but yeah, what we’re getting this year is a lot more interesting than Rangers v. Snakes. (And yes, I would have been one who would have cursed if the Mets made it.)
Soto’s dagger against Cleveland reminded me of his moonshot against Kershaw that may still be in orbit. And with every postseason game in Dodger Stadium, I still think of Howie sending the locals streaming for the exits. As epic as his foul-pole clanger was to take the lead in Game 7 of the World Series, his slam in Chavez may be my favorite Nat dinger of all time.
Five years seems so long ago . . .
And yes, the pitching situation has gotten crazy. Including the playoffs, the Dodgers have had 18 different guys start games this year. That sounds like something an expansion team would do.
KW
22 Oct 24 at 8:20 am
it’s a dream matchup for Fox, for sure. watching Soto is always a treat. now if Smoltz somehow comes down with a case of laryngitis I’ll be a happy camper.
FredMD
22 Oct 24 at 8:34 am
I see that Kershaw is only 32 Ks from 3,000. No wonder he wants to keep pitching. He’d only be the 20th guy to reach that level. Greinke fell 21 Ks short.
The only still-active player with much of a chance at 3,000 will be pitching for the other team. Cole has 2,251 and just turned 34, so he still would need several above-average seasons, as he also would to get 47 more wins to reach 200.
The Claw is already a lock for the Hall of Fame, one of an astounding eight guys in this series with pretty decent chances (with bWAR to date):
Dodgers: Kershaw (79.4), Ohtani (43.8), Betts (69.6 and just turned 32 — wow), and Freeman (60.7)
Yanks: Judge (52.2), Soto (36.4), Stanton (44.7), and Cole (43.3)
It’s interesting to note that Ohtani, in 860 MLB games, has already almost caught Stanton (1,649) in WAR even though Stanton has played in almost twice as many contests. Stanton’s HOF ace in the hole may be that he’ll likely end up with, or close to, 500 homers.
He may need those “counting” stats, though, as JAWS has him way down at #38 among right fielders. (Soto currently is at #53). Judge is #18 . . . and Betts already is #8. Wow. The seven ahead of him are Ruth, Aaron, Musial, Ott, F. Robinson, Clemente, and Kaline. If you sort by WAR7, Betts moves up to #4, behind only Ruth, Musial, and Aaron, and Judge to #12.
We think of Freeman as having a pretty solid HOF case, but he’s only #22 among 1B in JAWS and #23 in WAR7. I tend to think of him as a similar player to Votto, but Joey is #12 in JAWS and #9 in WAR7. Freeman’s counting stats are quite close to Votto’s, so it’s curious to see the difference in perceived “value.”
Of the eight guys I listed, Cole would seem to have the longest shot at the HOF, unless he can stay healthy enough to make it to 3,000 Ks.
KW
22 Oct 24 at 4:07 pm
Happy 26th to that guy at the top of this post, the soon-to-be $600M man.
Out of curiosity, I looked at his comps on B-R through age 25. To rub salt in the wounds, the #1 comp is Bryce. It’s a pretty damn impressive list:
1. Bryce Harper (948.0)
2. Frank Robinson (928.7) *
3. Ken Griffey Jr. (925.1) *
4. Mike Trout (914.7)
5. Andruw Jones (905.4)
6. Eddie Mathews (902.9) *
7. Miguel Cabrera (896.9)
8. Mickey Mantle (888.5) *
9. Orlando Cepeda (887.6) *
10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (877.0)
(* = HOF, with Miggy a mortal lock as well)
One interesting thing with Soto’s eventual HOF case is that he hasn’t won any major awards. He was 2d in ROY behind Acuna, finished 2d in MVP in 2021 and likely will be 3d this year.
If Soto stays healthy, the one all-time record he might have the best shot at is walks. Bonds is way out there with 2,558, but a healthy Soto can make the top five.
Soto may also be the next player to make it to 3,000 hits. There is hardly anyone else who is 5+ years into his career now who has a real shot. Acuna would have been on a solid track if not for the injuries. Vlad Jr. also has a good chance.
KW
25 Oct 24 at 10:32 am
That’s a heck of a comp list. 5 Current Hall of Famers, two other locks (Trout, Cabrera), and two guys who are projecting well (Harper, Vlad jr). Soto may have to wait for an injury plagued season from Judge to claim a MVP (assuming he goes back to NYY), and should have been MVP in the 2020 season.
Soto through age 25 season: 934 hits and 201 homers. That projects to 162 game averages of 162 hits and 35 homers. That’s easily projecting to 3,000 hits, 500 homers. He’s this generation’s Ted Williams.
Todd Boss
25 Oct 24 at 10:49 am
David Schoenfield apparently had the same thought I did about the number of potential Hall of Famers in this World Series:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/42035887/mlb-2024-playoffs-world-series-future-hall-famers-most-ever
(ESPN+ subscription required)
I listed the same eight potential suspects above who he does. He thinks that Cole will probably make it but is skeptical of Stanton’s chances unless he reaches 500 homers. I agree with him on Stanton but am more skeptical about Cole, who may end up short of 200 wins. Even then, 200 seems low for the best of this era . . . at least until we get to the stats blood feud that will happen over the deGrom candidacy. (The way things are going, deGrom may not even make it to 100 wins.) Even with a ton of injuries, Kershaw has 212 wins. Verlander has 262, so it’s hard to claim that guys “no longer do it” in this era. (Max has 216, Greinke finished in 2023 with 225, and Wainwright reached 200.)
Cole ranks way down at 152d in JAWS among starting pitchers. Interestingly, Chris Sale, who figures to be under Hall consideration at around the same time, is literally halfway up the list from Cole at #76. Others from this era:
19. Verlander (262 wins)
21. Kershaw (212)
25. Greinke (225)
27. Scherzer (216)
55. Sabathia (251)
71. Hamels (163; that’s right, these others rank behind him)
76. Sale (138)
97. Felix Hernandez (169)
109. deGrom (84)
133. Wainwright (200)
152. Cole (153)
153. Jon Lester (200)
Interestingly, if you reshuffle for ERA+, Cole moves up to #42, but he still trails these contemporaries:
4. Kershaw
5. deGrom (gonna be a hell of a fight about him)
18. Sale
19. Fried
29. Scherzer
42. Cole
44. Verlander
47. Snell
55. Strasburg
Cole totally tanks on the JAWS 7 list, though:
43. Verlander
45. Kershaw
53. Greinke
56. Scherzer
83. Sale
97. deGrom
103. Sabathia
110. King Felix
126. Hamels
143. Wainwright
161. Kluber
171. Cole
173. Lester
With Stanton and the HR list, every non-steroid-linked player with more than 475 homers is either in the Hall or a shoe-in. First out is Carlos Delgardo with 473. Nelson Cruz won’t make it with 464, followed by Adam Dunn and Jose Canseco (the juiciest of the juiced) at 462. Delgardo, Cruz, and Dunn are the only (supposedly) clean players with more than 450 homers who aren’t in the Hall, although all three also are like Stanton in that they became pretty limited all-around players later in their careers.
Stanton has three more seasons before the last one of his contract can be bought out. He needs to average 24 homers over those three to get to 500. He had 27 this year and 24 last year. But he also hasn’t posted an OPB over .300 since 2021 or a positive defensive WAR since 2017. At what point does he become such a liability that a rich franchise simply eats the rest of the contract?
KW
28 Oct 24 at 3:51 pm
Freeman is abusing the Yanks like he used to do the Nats. I used to wonder why he didn’t hit 50 homers a season. He always looked like Babe Ruth against us.
KW
29 Oct 24 at 1:17 pm
Welp, Cole looked like he was headed for one of those Jack Morris WS games that might have helped his HOF case . . . at least until he committed a Little League-level gaffe that totally cost his team the game and the series. Good luck living that one down, fella. (I still remember Cole dissing the Astros while on the way out the door after Game 7 in 2019. I’m not a fan.)
Meanwhile, remember when the Nats moved on from Treinen (traded him for other relievers) basically because they didn’t think he had the stones for late-inning work? Well, those were some boulders last night. And he’s a super class act. Good for him.
KW
31 Oct 24 at 8:44 am
Cole’s failure to cover 1B belongs in the Nook Logan/Merkle’s Boner pantheon of MLB gaffes. That inning last night is perhaps the only time in the history of baseball where one might reasonably have some sympathy for Yankees fans. What a beautiful disaster.
Derek
31 Oct 24 at 12:01 pm
Cole wasn’t the only one at fault in that awful inning. It all started when Aaron Judge muffed an easy fly ball in CF on a play that I would expect to be made in my 48+ recreational baseball league. Making Cole the scapegoat here makes little sense to me. YMMV.
John C.
31 Oct 24 at 12:17 pm
I don’t disagree about Judge, but Cole compounded matters. Yanks have been living on a prayer playing Judge in CF. Their two biggest stars spit the bit when it mattered most.
KW
31 Oct 24 at 1:19 pm
I could never pinpoint it but something about Cole always rubbed me the wrong way. then to see him point his finger at Rizzo on that play brought it front and center.
FredMD
31 Oct 24 at 2:59 pm
I definitely agree that Judge should have caught that fly ball. But errors like that happen. Cole started to cover 1B and then stopped! It’s not like he forgot! Cole was dogging it in an elimination game in the World Series! It’s absolutely insane…
Derek
31 Oct 24 at 3:53 pm