Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Nats Opener History and Trivia updated for 2025

13 comments

Sorry MacKenzie, you can’t win ’em all! Photo wikipedia

Welcome to the 2025 Baseball Season!

Well, it isn’t every day you get a 6ip, 1hit, 0run, 13K, 0BB effort from a starter and lose, but that’s what the Nats managed to do yesterday in their home and season opener against the hated Phillies. MacKenzie Gore certainly carved through the Phillies lineup, each of whom struck out at least once on the day (Philadelphia made 19 of their 30 outs via the whiff).

As I mentioned in the comments, It’s rather ironic that both of the Philly homers on the day came from ex-Nats (Harper and Schwarber). I wish them well.

One random little artifact I maintain for some reason is a collection of our Opening Day and Home Opener data, like attendance, box scores, W/L, etc. Here’s that information for review with some trivia sprinkled in.

Home Opener Attendance and Weather through the years

2025’s attendance was up from previous years, a good sign for the team as it tries to convince the town that it may be close to competing again. We’re still well below the debut years of the stadium (I think they’ve removed a bunch of seats since the stadium opened in 2008 so the capacity will never be back in the 45k range), and the home opener record will likely always be the 2005 debut game of the franchise in DC, 45,596 at the old RFK, as people fought past protestors and secret service to often get into the game in the middle of the 2nd inning. (Note; the record for the franchise is record for the stadium still remains 2012 NLDS Game 5, or the “Storen” game, of 45,966).

Best and Worst weather for a home opener? Yesterday was 57 and sunny; that’s pretty good. I’d probably say the best weather for a home opener remains the “Phillies Invasion” game back in 2010, though we’ve had a slew of mid-70s and sunny openers in our history. The worst weather for a home opener? probably the 2011 41-degree afternoon game, though it must have been brutal to sit through the 2022 opener 4+ hour delay). Reminder from 2020: the 90-degree day was b/c the season was delayed into the summer.

  • 2025: 41,231 (4:05 thurs game, 57, sunny, slight wind)
  • 2024: 40,405 (4:05 tues game, 53, cloudy, slight wind)
  • 2023: 35,756 (105 thurs game, 45 degrees and sunny)
  • 2022: 35,052 (7:05 thurs game (pushed back from 4:05, then delayed to 8:21 weather. 52 degrees, cloudy, rainy)
  • 2021: 4,801 (4:05 tuesday game, 74 degrees, partly cloudy, 5mph wind)
  • 2020: 0 (7:09 thurs game, 90, partly cloudy, 7mph wind)
  • 2019: 42,263 (1:07 thurs game, 56, partly cloudy, no wind)
  • 2018: 42,477 (1:08 thurs game, 42, partly cloudy, slight wind)
  • 2017: 42,744 (1:05 monday game, 66 and cloudy, slight wind)
  • 2016: 41,650 (4:05 thursday game, 60 and 1.5hr rain delay)
  • 2015: 42,295 (4:05 monday game, 75 and gorgeous)
  • 2014: 42,834 (1:05 friday game, 50s and overcast)
  • 2013: 45,274 (1:05 monday game, 60 and beautiful)
  • 2012: 40,907 (1:05 thursday game 56, partly cloudy)
  • 2011: 39,055 (1:05 thursday game, 41 degrees and overcast)
  • 2010: 41,290 (1pm game monday, beautiful weather 80s and sunny): This was Phillies Invasaion
  • 2009: 40,386 (3pm game on a monday, chilly 53degr and overcast).
  • 2008: 39,389 (season and stadium opener), 8pm sunday night, Braves, nat’l tv clear but cold.
  • 2007: 40,389 (in rfk, 1pm game vs Florida, 72 degrees
  • 2006: 40,516 (in rfk, tuesday day game vs Mets, 72 degr and sunny)
  • 2005: 45,596 (in rfk, debut of entire franchise, 62 degr and clear, evening game).

Home opener Results and Box Scores

The Nats are just 6-15 all time through 2025 in their home openers, a pretty interesting stat given that for most of the 2010s they were one of the best teams in the sport. We nearly always play a divisional rival in our home opener: of our 21 home openers, just 4 have come against non-divisional rivals (including the weird 2020 Covid year and our franchise opener, which was delayed after a huge road trip to start the season to allow the stadium add’l prep time).

Nats Season Openers.
We are slightly better in Season openers: Record: 8-13. We’ve been home 13 times, away 8 times.

Written by Todd Boss

March 28th, 2025 at 9:30 am

Posted in Nats in General

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13 Responses to 'Nats Opener History and Trivia updated for 2025'

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  1. Watching the Phillies is like a look into an alternate universe where the Lerners didn’t suddenly cheap out.

    Imagine how fearsome the Nats would look with another $170m injected into this team annually.

    Still, an absolutely thrilling first appearance for Gore. However, the issue with Gore has never been the stuff. He’s got probably half a dozen games just as good as yesterday’s. It’s his consistency. Through the end of May last season, he looked just as good. Posted a 2.91 ERA, 72 K, 17 BB, in 58 IP. But then over his next 12 starts, he posted a 6.44 ERA, 56 K, 29 BB, in 57 IP. Bleak. And then after that, he finished the season to the tune of 2.15 ERA, 53 K, 19 BB, 50 IP. If he can cut out those lost June-July starts, then we’ve got a genuine ace on our hands.

    But I hope he works it out quick, because we only have 3 seasons left of control (this season included) before we lose him to free agency.

    Will

    28 Mar 25 at 11:05 am

  2. It seems safe to say that Gore had the best Opening Day start of anyone in Nat history. He faced the minimum across six innings, with the one hit wiped out by a CS. He earned 0.6 fWAR for that one outing, which seems wild.

    I’ve already said my piece about the Nat bullpen. Surrendering seven runs in just four innings doesn’t bode well.

    KW

    28 Mar 25 at 1:02 pm

  3. @Will: well, since we’re still in “rebuild mode” we have to look at exactly what you mention; what these guys can net in trade. We have multiple possibilities in July to flip for more prospects:
    – FA after 2025: Soroka, Bell, Finnegan, Lopez, Law, Rosario, deJong, Poche, Sims
    – under control 2025 and 26: Lowe, Williams.

    Last year we moved Harvey, Winker, Thomas, and Floro. That netted us Cayden Wallace, The pick that turned into Lomavita, Tyler Stuart, Alex Clemmey, Rafael Ramirez Jr, Jose Tena, and Andres Chapparo. I mean, that’s a hell of a haul

    I’m not sure we have the depth to get this kind of return in 2025. But hey, maybe.

    Todd Boss

    28 Mar 25 at 1:02 pm

  4. In the alternative universe where the Lerners don’t “cheap out?” As I’ve noted at other times, Harper left because he was gunning for a contract over $400M but didn’t get it from anyone. He finally settled for a Phillies offer that wasn’t much better than the one he rejected from the Nats (without a counteroffer) months earlier. Had the Lerners jumped back in at that point it just would have given Scott Boras the bidding war that he was desperately hoping to get. Bottom line: if the Nats jump back in, Harper doesn’t sign for the deal that he got with the Phillies. A deal that he’s already tried to renegotiate, although the Phillies rightfully told him to pound sand. Schwarber was here for THREE MONTHS and was a pending free agent. Turner didn’t sign an extension with the Nats. Of course he didn’t sign an extension with the Dodgers, either, and yet we don’t sit around talking about the Dodgers “letting him leave.”

    I think that the Lerners will have to show a willingness to spend as the team exits the rebuild. The jury is still out on that. But I’ve often marveled over the years how the “TEH LERNERZ R CHEEEP!” narrative never dies despite the amount of money they throw around. Whether they throw that money around wisely is an entirely different question and fair game for criticism.

    John C.

    28 Mar 25 at 3:18 pm

  5. I’m of two thoughts when it comes to Lerner’s and Payroll for this team. Both of these seem to be true, at the same time:

    1. MASN/Baltimore/Angelos f*cked the Nats for two decades. This team sits in the 5th or 6th biggest market and they should have been getting 2x the RSN money they were getting.
    2. Lerners are incredibly wealthy but have run the team like its a small market penny pinching enterprise for the lionshare of their tenure. Their 2025 payroll is $107M. 107! F*cking Athletics are at $70M.

    If the Nats were getting Philly or Houston RSN money this whole time (somewhere in the $120M range), instead of fighting over what eventually turned into $58-$60M a year … that’s a lot of missing payroll.

    ———
    Harper; the deal he turned down from Washington depended on an awful lot of deferred money, where as Philly’s did not. He turned down $300M with $100M deferred to sign for $330M in present dollars. That’s a massive difference.
    https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/news/bryce-harper-says-he-was-hurt-by-nationals-contract-offer#:~:text=At%20the%20end%20of%20the,latched%20on%20with%20the%20Phillies.

    The Nats have dodged some bullets with extensions, and gotten burned.
    o dodged bullets with Desmond, Zimmermann, and especially Rendon.
    o got burned on Strasburg badly, probably burned with Zimmerman as well but FotF had to be extended or there would ahve been a riot.
    o Offered Harper $300M and Soto $400M and got beat. It is what it is; Boras clients almost always go to market.

    The next wave of FAs should be interesting. First to hit will be Gray, Gore, and Garcia after 2027 season. Gray’s value just got shredded with his TJ, while Garcia is the highest paid of the three right now, and with the attrition rate of arms who wants to commit anything long term?

    Todd Boss

    28 Mar 25 at 4:14 pm

  6. In the latter half of the 2010s, the Nats spent right up to (and a couple of years over) the luxury tax threshold. The year they won the title, they had the #4 payroll in MLB. Now they have #22 (MLB roster)/#23 (40-man):

    https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

    Their payroll now is only 43% of the $241M tax line. This is the fourth straight season that the Nats haven’t spent a competitive amount. That’s an inarguable fact. We should credit the Lerners for spending what was necessary to win a championship, but it’s also clear that someone made a decision to not spend enough to field a competitive team since 2021.

    Also, none of this has anything to do with Harper and that era. They gave Stras a fortune. They made an offer to Rendon. They signed Corbin, who turned out to be a key piece for a championship (before turning into a turkey).

    I’ll never understand what Harper/Boras thought they were doing. There was criticism of the Lerners at the time for all the deferred contracts, but it’s apparently “innovative” when the Dodgers do it. As Todd noted, the Nats likely would have gone higher for Bryce. As I recall, the Dodgers offered him 4/$160M. He would have gotten a ring with either team, maybe more than one. (Or maybe not; would the Nats have really won the title if they had made the Bryce deal? Would they have had the money to sign Corbin?)

    I wouldn’t have touched Turner’s contract, or talked extension in the terms that he ultimately received. He’s a 32-year-old SS who doesn’t really have the range to play SS anymore, yet he’s still owed more than $200M for eight seasons after this one. That contract already isn’t aging well.

    I’ll always enjoy watching Harper, Turner, and Soto play. They’ll always be “our guys.” But sure I won’t ever root for their teams in the playoffs, not because of them, but because of the names on the front of the uniforms.

    KW

    28 Mar 25 at 8:29 pm

  7. Since the start of the 2020 season (5 years ago!), the largest contract the Nationals have paid out is a 8 year $50m extension to Ruiz. The next highest contract is a one year $15m contract to Nelson Cruz in 2022. The next most valuable was a two year $13m contract to Williams. If that’s not being cheap, I don’t know what is. While the Lerners haven’t always been cheap, they definitely are now.

    Even the poverty franchises have paid out bigger contracts in this same period. Hayes and Reynolds got $70 and $106m extensions from the Pirates. The A’s handed out 3 $60m+ contracts this winter to Rooker, Butler and Severino. The Rays paid Franco $180m.

    Are they brave enough to lock down this young core we’re building (preferably the good players), or will we watch them leave too to our divisional rivals in a few years too?

    Will

    29 Mar 25 at 10:33 am

  8. Nats’ bullpen: 8 IP, 16 R, 15 ER. Money back if not delighted.

    KW

    29 Mar 25 at 7:41 pm

  9. On the other hand, how about that rotation?

    Presently: 14 IP, 2 ER, 18 K, 4 BB

    And we haven’t even gotten to our impressive FA signings yet!

    Will

    30 Mar 25 at 2:17 pm

  10. Starters keep it going on Sunday. Got to give props to the bullpen after beating it up for two days.

    KW

    30 Mar 25 at 5:05 pm

  11. Remember, the bullpen started out awful in 2019 🙂

    Todd Boss

    31 Mar 25 at 8:30 am

  12. Yeah, and in 2019 they blew out most of those guys and started over!

    KW

    31 Mar 25 at 7:47 pm

  13. Exactly! that’s why I don’t rate reliever “prospects.” Use up the existing crop, call up the next set, repeat.

    Todd Boss

    31 Mar 25 at 8:09 pm

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