Nationals Arm Race

I cannot recall which National’s blogger used to do this (providing his/her own answers to the questions in Bill Ladson’s mailbag) but I thought i’d give it a shot.

Here’s the latest installment of his mailbag.  And here’s how i’d answer the questions he took.

Q: When does Ryan Zimmerman get a contract extension similar to the one Troy Tulowitzki received from the Rockies?

A: Probably never; odds are that he leaves our franchise for greener pastures (read, a competing team) where he immediately becomes a perennial MVP candidate and solidifies his Hall of Fame candidacy.  Because as it stands now, he’s winning only the title of “most under-rated player in the game.”  Go look at Mark Teixeira‘s stats and season-ending accomplishments just before and just after his New York signing.  Or ask Bert Blyleven why it took so long to get into the hall after playing for crummy teams his whole career.

Q: I think center fielder Nyjer Morgan played OK last year and deserves to be the leadoff hitter. I believe no one else on the current roster can hit at the top of the lineup. What do you think?

A: Morgan regressed both professionally and statistically last year, and Rizzo should have tried harder to find a replacement.  What’s probably going to happen is Morgan starting the season as a starter, he’ll hit .220 for a month and a half, and we’ll banish him to AAA before non-tendering him next off season.  I feel we should have tried harder to replace him in the off-season.

Q: If Bryce Harper has a great Spring Training, do you think the Nationals will keep him on the 25-man roster or send him to the Minors?

A: No way for one simple reason: “Super 2 status.”  Best case scenario has Harper blowing through the low-A and high-A leagues, then starting 2012 in AA before getting called up June 1st to delay his arbitration clock and play left field for the team (or perhaps moving Werth to left and starting in RF).

Q: Do you think Chien-Ming Wang could return to the form that made him one of the top pitchers with the Yankees? What is the latest on his physical condition?

A: Signs point to no after a lost 2010 season.  At least he’s less of a payroll burden this year when he misses the entire season.  By all accounts he’s supposedly at 100% but nobody knows what we’ll get until he starts throwing in Viera.  I could see him flashing promise in Viera then spending 3 months on the DL.

Q: In 2007, the Nationals came to camp with so many starting pitchers that they were drawing attention from the local media. This year, the Nationals have a similar situation as far as the number of starting pitchers. Can you tell the difference between the two years? Why should Nats fans be encouraged by this year’s class?

A: Definitely disagree here; unlike in 2007 there is almost no starter competition planned.  We have a presumptuous opening day roster of starters and only an injury or a huge spring upset will change that.  Lots of the Spring Training invite guys are going to be buried in AAA or were invited as professional courtesy for past years of service.  As far as encouragement for this year’s rotation; it is marginally better than the 5 guys who started 2010 and has some potential for improving with prospects that we value well.  It isn’t a league-leading rotation but it has some basis for growth towards 2012/2013.

Q: Do you think the Nationals need one more big-time bat or proven hitter to get them to .500 in 2011?

A: No, they need 3 more proven starters.  See Giants, San Francisco for building a winning team with a poor offense.

Q: What are the chances of the Nats making a run at Prince Fielder next offseason? It seems that one more big bat would make them a very good team.

A: Like the movie, the answer here is “Less than Zero.”  Rizzo wants UZR/150 plus-plus fielders across the board, and Fielder is absolutely NOT that.  Ladsen say’s we’re committed to LaRoche; I’d disagree with that sentiment too.  He is a 2 year stop-gap until either Chris Marrero matriculates and earns his spot or another option becomes available.