Lannan has the only W for the rotation thus far. Photo: blog.prorumors.com
A major league team’s rotation cycles somewhere between 33-34 times a year. As I did with the Spring training games, I will try to do a good/bad/indifferent each time through for the pitching staff. I’ll focus more on the starters but will mention the relievers as is merited.
Good
- Livan Hernandez‘s opening day start (running blog/gamer/box score) may have gone down as a loss, but it was a pretty nifty gem. He gave up two runs on four hits with no walks in 6 1/3 on only 77 pitches. He retired 15 in a row after a 2nd inning homer given up to Jason Heyward. He may have gotten the loss but it was a quality start for sure and he probably pitches a complete game if the Nats could score.
- John Lannan goes 5 complete for the win in the 2nd game of the season (blog/gamer/box score). Its amazing what a little run support will do for a guy. I do agree though with Steven from FJB, who criticizes the decision to bring Lannan back after an hour’s rain delay just so he can pitch the 5th and get the W. Why would he have possibly had Lannan return after an hour’s delay? That’s why you have long men in the bullpen. That should have been Broderick or Gaudin in to re-start the game.
- Jordan Zimmermann‘s first start of the season (running blog/gamer/box score) was promising: 2er in 6ip and finishing those 6 innings in just 84 pitches. Not very many Ks though (only two through six) for a strike out pitcher. Perhaps he was pitching to contact.
- Sean Burnett: apparently our new “closer” for now. He’s pitched pretty effectively in limited opportunities.
- Jason Marquis: his 4/5 start (gamer and box)was the first game that I have gotten to see. And I thought he looked pretty good. He went 6 1/3, gave up 6 hits and 0 walks and was efficient all night (he was only at 78 pitches when he got removed). He only had 2 ks but was throwing lots of strikes. His fastball showed around 90 with great movement and he got lots of groundballs (11 grounders and 5 fly balls). The middle of the Marlins order had his number but he controlled the rest of the squad.
Bad
- Doug Slaten: three games and three failures in the Loogy role to start the season. Gotta do better. Your job is to get the lefties out. He may not have given up an earned run yet but his whip is a nifty 12.00 through three games.
- The Bullpen on 4/3/11. Broderick, Gaudin, and Coffey‘s 4/3/11 performances. Not. Good. Notice that these three guys are all brand new to a very good bullpen last year. I’m not panicking, but i am saying. Balester may have his ears burning if (especially) Gaudin can’t get it done.
Possibly Concerning
- Storen seems to be getting his confidence back. But he cannot be giving up two hits and a walk in the 9th inning of a tied game (as he did on 4/5). He’s not getting any Ks either, and we need his k/9 ratio to be up in the 8.5-9.0 range.
Pitching Summary:
We’ve had four starts and gotten 3 “real” quality starts (plus Lannan on his way to a 4th when a rain delay caused his night to be shortened). You cannot ask for much more out of your starting rotation. Last year our first four starts went like this:
- Lannan; 3 2/3ip, 7 hits, 3bbs and 5 runs.
- Marquis: 4ip, 8 hits, 3 bbs and 6 runs.
- Stammen: 5ip, 9 hits, 4 runs.
- Mock: 3 1/3ip, 4hits but FIVE walks and 2 runs.
For the record, that was 17 runs in 16 innings over 4 days. Our first four starts in 2011 elicited 23 2/3ip and just 7 earned runs. Quite the turn around. Too bad the team couldn’t score any runs and went 1-3.
Thoughts on the offense
We’re getting great production out of our stars (Zimmerman has a 1.406 ops through 4 games and Werth is at .945). Ramos is mashing the ball and Espinosa is 4/10 so far. The rest of the team? Bad. Until last night the lead off hitters were 0-for-the-season and Riggleman is already swapping players around to put Espinosa at leadoff (a pretty good decision if he can handle it). Ankiel is 1/12 (but that “one” is a mashed homer, which St. Louis fans are probably cackling about, since they continually warn Nats fans that this is exactly what Ankiel does). They’ve only scored 10 runs in 4 games (6 of them in their sole win) and definitely need to show better run support.
Summary
Great starting pitching to go with little run support. I hope this isn’t the story of the season.
re Lannan coming back to pitch the 5th inning after a long rain delay
I’m sure that I saw Lannan quoted as thanking Riggleman for the opportunity to come out and pitch that 5th inning. I believe that many pitcher’s contracts include bonuses for certain measures of positive performance and I understood Lannan’s gratitude to his Manager to reflect the fact that he got a win where a decision to let one of the long guys in the bullpen come in an pitch that inning would have been easy to understand (and probably not result in any criticism from the pundits). Sure, a single win in April is not the obvious factor that’s going to help Lannan buy a shiny new ride or get paid a million more on his next contract, but it doesn’t hurt either.
I enjoy reading your blog. Thanks, Mark in Arlington
Mark in Arlington
6 Apr 11 at 12:47 pm
I think you are a bit off on your stat line for Storen last night. He only gave up one hit and 2 BBs but one was an intentional walk after an error and his other walk, the replay showed should have been a strike out of Mike Stanton, he however pitched Stanton the right way by not giving him anything to hit in a tie game with a weaker hitting Coghlan on deck. I would say last night Storen actually pitched very well.
Also, Ankiel is 1 for 12, but he also has done a couple of little things very well. He moved a runner over that ended up scoring, he had the squeeze play and he was absolutely robbed last night of a 2 run double or triple by Coghlan. On opening day he also hit a ball that would have been a homerun any other day of the year. He also has gotten a couple of walks. I think he is going to end up the year hitting around .250 with an OBP around .330 and a decent number of homeruns but I think being able to do the little things will be a huge thing for him to contribute to the club. His CF play just seems more effortless and smooth than Nyjers and he even almost threw a guy out at home yesterday from 325 feet away.
I do agree with pretty much everything else you said though.
pdowdy83
6 Apr 11 at 12:53 pm
Fair enough; when the Marlins tied the score the wife said, “enough baseball.” So I didn’t see Storen’s appearance. I wish I could spend 3+ hours a night watching every game to get these little nuances; sometimes you have to settle for the pure stat lines. So you miss little things like this. Ironically this is my biggest beef about using JUST stats to measure hall of fame cases (like Blyleven) and said as much in this same space in January. The gist of the argument against Blyleven was that he was always a mediocre, middle of the road guy during his career, but stat heads get so obsessed with career WAR and career strikeouts that he was more or less canonized into induction. Tangent, sorry.
Ankiel. Yeah, I should have mentioned the “little things” like the suicide and his defense. I just can’t get over the fact that (in several forums) i’ve seen StL fans basically say, “watch out he’s going to go 0-10 then hit a bomb and make you forget he went 0-10)” and now he’s done it all spring and then that’s basically what he’s done (from an official standpoint) so far in the reg season. I will say this; i like his defense and his arm over Morgan’s absolutely. I don’t have a problem going with him over Morgan or Bernadina to start the season. I wonder though what we’re going to do if its may and he’s still hitting .230. He hit exactly .231 and .232 in his last two seasons, so i think we know who we’re getting. Please, please let Corey Brown light it up in AAA and earn a call up 🙂
Todd Boss
6 Apr 11 at 1:01 pm
Ankiel is who he is. Right now, the offense is only firing on three & 1/2 cylinders (Werth, RZim, Espinosa & Ramos). You have to believe that Desmond, Morse, & LaRoche won’t be in season-long funks & their hitting will come around.
BinM
6 Apr 11 at 1:22 pm
I perceive Riggleman to be “old school,” and i’m sure he left it up to the pitcher to make that decision. But I completely agree with your sentiments about the “W” stat line and its implications in future arbitration hearings and what not. I did a huge salary-to-win post a while back (http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=263) but Wins are so nebulus that I want to re-do that xls with quality starts instead. Its been such a massive task though that I havn’t tried it yet.
Thanks for reading! I’m glad you enjoy.
Todd Boss
6 Apr 11 at 1:44 pm
I definitely agree with the nuances and the hall of fame.
As far as stat lines go, I’ve never understood why they don’t have a BB and an iBB category on them. Pitchers get charged for walks even when the manager calls for it. I don’t think the pitcher should be penalized for it. Especially in a scenario like last night where Storen got a weak pop up that fell due to an error and then a ball got to the backstop on a pitch that seemed like Ramos should have caught.
The cards fans are probably right about Ankiel too. I just see what he did in his breif time in KC last year before injuries derailed him and really hope he can put those numbers together for the season instead of his numbers while struggling with injuries. If he is healthy I can see the numbers I projected but he is the type of guy that runs through walls to catch balls and doesn’t stay healthy very often. I think a lot will have to do with whether Bernadina learns to hit offspeed stuff in AAA and/or if Corey Brown lights up AAA. If neither of those things happen even if Ankiel is hitting .232 he would probably stick around. That is a sad scenario…
pdowdy83
6 Apr 11 at 2:07 pm
I figured Ankiel was the 4th outfielder when they signed him. And he makes a great 4th outfielder; veteran guy, good D, some pop off the bench in PH roles, can play adequately well 1-2 starts a week. Starter? ehhh.
Corey Brown would solve two big problems; lead-off and center field. He’s got 20-20 capabilities in the minors and could be a nice little top-of-the-order addition if he can prove he can hit (which he couldn’t do last year going from AA to AAA, so we’ll see). Of course, if we taught Bryce Harper how to play centerfield ….
Todd Boss
6 Apr 11 at 3:09 pm