Rutledge amazingly gets added to the 40-man. Photo via BA
So, in the wake of my big Rule-5 preview … i didn’t think the team was going to do much.
But they did a lot. Lets talk about the players added and the players removed.
Added:
Jake Alu inf
Matt Cronin lhp
Jeremy De La Rosa of
Jose Ferrer lhp
Jake Irvin rhp
Jackson Rutledge rhp
Alu: I thought Alu was a decent candidate for his AAA success, but was thinking perhaps the team would let him slide as someone who was perhaps seen as “undersized utility guy.” Clearly they favor him more, and this gives us more evidence that Alu is going to compete straight up with Kieboom this coming spring.
Cronin: So, in my preview I thought Cronin was the only “lock” to get added, based on his plug-n-play and his success in AAA. So, no surprise here.
De La Rosa: surprised he got added. The guy is only 20 and hit .197 in a few games in High-A. Yes he raked in Low-A; read that sentence again: he’s 20. Who is going to draft his guy and have him stay on a 25-man roster all year? I’m not doubting the guy’s ability, i just can’t believe someone would waste a roster spot on a 20yr old OF like him. If he was an arm? Sure. so we’re going to have at least one 40-man player in High-A next spring.
Ferrer: I didn’t think he was really a viable candidate since he was in High-A most of the year. Again, who would pick a guy who had only demonstrated he could succeed in A ball? Nonetheless, he’s here.
Irvin: Honestly, I didn’t think his AA numbers merited a spot. But, perhaps the Nats are thinking about his pedigree instead of his performance.
Rutledge: the most amazing selection of all. Reminder: he had a .4.90 ERA in LOW-A this year. This is entirely a protection based on protecting a big bonus and not the player on the field. You can generally count on one hand the number of 40-man players in A ball in a given year … and our team is set to have two of them in 2023. Amazing.
Now, lets be honest. I’m not “mad” about any of these additions. I’m always up for protecting our players instead of letting them go. I’m just kind of surprised that some of these guys got picked, knowing what we know about rule5.
Biggest surprises not to get protected? Millas of course, given our catching depth. Nobody else really; the only other guy i mentioned as being in the realm ofpossible to get protected was Brill.
Lets talk about who the team dumped to get here. Two days ago we were at 39/40 on the 40-man; now we have 6 new guys.
Seth Romero mercifully cut after yet another disgression: we’ll have a separate post-mortem post.
Tommy Romero dfa’d: no surprise here; he was perhaps 3rd or 4th on my list of “next guy to get the DFA.”
Jackson Tetreault: cut not because he merited it .. but because he’s hurt and thus passed easily through waivers. More importantly (and this is the exact same situation with Lee) … Tetreault was eligible to be outrighted against his will once he passed through waivers. So this (and Lee) were strategic outrights, knowing they’d be guaranteed to still be with the org. Well done .. and another example of how the roster rules continually screw pre-arb players in this sport.
Evan Lee: See Tetreault; Lee has a left flexor strain, a huge red flag for teams in the modern Tommy John happy era.
Yadiel Hernandez: The one that really shocked me. I mean, i had him possibly penciled in as the starting LF next season based on his bat. But then again, maybe this was a calculated gamble by the team to DFA a player who they could outright and control, as with Tetreault and Lee. The cuban sticks with the team but is bound for AAA once again, a situation that has to be a huge bummer for him.
Something tells me we’ll be seeing Tetreault, Lee, and Hernandez again. But not for a while. At least we retain them.
More interesting is why the team bothered to keep rif-raf on the 40-man like:
Fox, who went 2-28 in the majors and a middling .241 in the minors
Palacios, who posted a 46 OPS+ in a completely replaceable position.
Weems, who posted a 5.22 ERA in the bullpen as a RHP middle reliever.
Garrett, who gave up 7 runs in 9 innings
Antuna, who continues to have 9 lives, hitting .215 in High-A. He has one option remaining until finally this arrogant decision can be put behind us when, after he again flirts with the Mendoza line in the minors in 2023, he’ll be forced to be DFA’d thanks to the exhausting of waivers in the spring of 2024.
More moves have to be coming, including some non-tenders (a separate post on that forth coming as well), because the team has to get some reinforcements this off-season besides 20yr olds who hit .190 in high-A (ahem, De La Rosa). Right?
Reminder on the guidelines here: any 4-year college-aged draftee from 2019 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming December, and any high-school aged draftee/International Free Agent from 2018 or before is newly eligible this year, assuming they were at least 18 as of June 5th of that year. There’s always a couple of guys who have specific birthdays that move them up or down one way or the other; i’ll depend on the Roster Resource rules and the Draft Tracker for exact details, but apologies in advance if I miss someone.
Wrinkle for this year; thanks to the massive spate of injuries the team faced in 2022, we had to dump players just to get all our 60-day DL guys back on the 40-man. So there’s not a ton of room there to add players right now. The team outrighted two players last week (Perez and Berrera) to get to 39/40 on the roster … is that a hint as to what they’ll be doing for Rule5? Probably.
If they want to do more Rule5 protection additions, they’ll need to do more DFAs/releases/outrights/non-tenders … right now I see six players who seem to have little to no value on the roster based on 2022 performance (Machado, Fox, TRomero, Palacios, Weems, Garrett) and another handful of arbitration eligible players who just don’t seem like they’re going to be worth their projected salary (Voit, Fedde, Robles), so there’s definitely room to make some drops to add some of the guys we’re talking about below. We’ll have another conversation later about non-tender/arbitration candidates; but don’t be surprised if one or more of them is dumped this week.
Group 1: Newly Eligible 2019 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:
Hitters:
Millas, Drew, a 7th rounder by Oakland in 2019 and who we acquired in the 2021 trade dump, perhaps is the most difficult Rule-5 choice we face (certainly the MLBpipeline guys think so). He’s a known prospect and has solid defense, but slashed just .211/.280/.296 once he got to AA. We’re not exactly “deep” in catchers in the organization (rostering just three right now), but we also have two known opening day catchers right now without argument, so Millas’ 2023 goal will be to learn how to hit in AA, then push his way to AAA. Does that sound like someone who is a risk to get selected in the Rule-5 draft? Not in the modern game, where teams routinely start their backup C twice a week. There’s no way a guy who hit .211 in AA would be trusted to call MLB games right now. I’ll say he’s a slight, slight chance to protect but not really a candidate.
Mendoza, Drew: 3rd rounder, 1B/DH: he of course *should* be a Rule5 protection … but this 3rd rounder has been a huge disappointment in his career. He slashed .208/.288/.316 as a 1B/DH repeating High-A in his age 24 season. Not a protection candidate.
Cluff, Jackson: 6th round SS: socially promoted to AA this year, where he slashed .190/.278/.278. I’ve questioned why he’s still in the system, let alone why he got nearly 400 ABs in 2022. Not a protection candidate.
Pratt, Andrew: 10th round Senior sign, still hanging around despite a career BA of .183. God bless him; signed for $10k and probably wasn’t expected to make it to 2020 season, let alone rostered 3 years later. Not a protection candidate.
Arruda, J.T.: 11th round middle infielder who got an above slot bonus. Couldn’t cut it at High-A in 2021, got hurt early 2022 and had decent numbers (as one would expect) repeating Low-A. Not sure what his career outlook is, but not a protection candidate.
Dunn, Jack, a 20th round senior sign who, like Pratt signed for $10k and was mostly an afterthought, now sits on the AAA roster as a middle infield backup. Great career; not a threat to be protected.
Strohschein, Kevin, a 21st round senior sign, posted a .586 OPS in high-A this year. Great that he’s still hanging around, but not a protection candidate.
Alu, Jake presents an interesting case for protection. In 2021 he hacked his way into a promotion to AA, where he didn’t suck. Then in 2022 he posted an .830 OPS in AA showing some power, which led to a AAA promotion where he posted a very solid .323/.372/.553 figure with 11 homers in 59 games (!) while playing mostly 3B (with some 2B cover). Is he possibly pushing his name towards meriting a 40-man spot? I mean … if Carter Kieboom hits .200 yet again in spring training, does the team consider someone like Alu instead of a 31-yr old retread like Ildemar Vargas for 2023? I mean why not? That all being said, is he someone who another team would pluck and stick on their MLB roster all year? Maybe? The Nats signed Alu as a Senior for a pittance ($10K) and in the neanderthal accounting of MLB clubs that means they very little “invested in” him, but players who hit .300 in AAA don’t grow on trees (our team had just 4 who hit .300 this year … and two of them had fewer than 6 games to do so). Personally, i’d protect him just to see what you have, but I could understand why the team might roll the dice on a lower profile guy.
This list recently included names like Ydens, Martina, Renda, and Barrios but they were all released in mid-2022.
Pitchers
Rutledge, Jackson, our 1st rounder in 2019 and the guy who some pundits as recently as last off-season thought was a better prospect than Cade Cavalli, toiled to a 4.90 ERA, a K/inning and a 1.39 WHIP while repeating Low-A in 2022. Low-A. First round college sign four years out of college. Its patently ridiculous. On the one hand the entire baseball world knows he’s a 1st rounder and knows he can put up 7ip/3H/0R/10K starts. On the other hand, he’s got way, way too many 4ER in 5IP starts to be trustworthy. If he was putting up like 12 K/9 stats, maybe someone would take him as a flier for a middle relief RHP guy, but he’s not. He’s not protectable, but he’s also an asset the team may feel the need to “protect.” I’d be shocked if he was protected, but hey, they also protected a guy a couple years ago in Antuna who was this low in the minors.
Cronin, Matt, 4th round power Lefty reliever who pitched most of the year in the back end of the AAA bullpen, posting good numbers. This is the textbook definition of the kind of guy teams would pluck in Rule-5, make the 7th guy out of the bullpen, and see if they found gold. I think he’s a lock to be protected.
Dyson, Tyler, 5th round pick in 2019, missed all of 2020 with injury. Not a protection candidate, but a good arm to watch in 2023.
Peterson, Todd, 7th rounder in 2019, struggled with injury in 2022 and ended the year on the 60-day DL. Not a candidate to protect, and someone who I hope rebounds to prior form.
Ribalta, Orlando ended the year as a middle reliever in High-A with decent numbers, but isn’t a threat to protect.
Knowles, Lucas worked as an effective swingman all year in High-A, but shouldn’t be considered a threat to be picked even so. Perhaps next year if he can repeat this performance in AA.
Moore, Davis missed the entire 2022 season with injury.
Willingham, Amos, like a lot of arms in this list, pitched well for High-A this year. Hi-A 25yr olds drafted in the teens don’t generally make prospect noise, and Willingham is in the same boat.
Yankosky, Tyler posted a 1.78 ERA in 21 mostly 8th/9th inning relief appearances and was well on his way to a promotion, then he got hurt in mid June and did not appear again. Someone to watch for in 2023 for sure, but not likely to get plucked.
Stainbrook, Troy was yet another High-A middle reliever in 2022, posting a 4.75 ERA with more walks than IP. Surprised he’s still on the roster and might not make it out of ST 2023.
Alston, Garvin, a 37th rounder in 2019 by the White Sox who we got in a little reported trade in April (it was such a minor deal that it’s unclear what we traded to Chicago for him; money perhaps? ). Nonetheless he pitched great this year, posting a 1.96 ERA in High-A and earning a promotion to AA in August (where he got shelled). Probably not a protection candidate in 2022, but a player to watch for in 2023.
Shuman, Seth: a 6th rounder in 2019 by Oakland who came to us in the Gomes/Harrison trade during the 2021 purge. He was pitching quite well in High-A’s rotation, but left a game early in early July and never returned. Its unclear what the injury was, and we hope he returns in 2023. Not a candidate.
Group 1 Rule-5 Protection Candidates: Millas (slight), Alu (maybe). Rutledge (doubtful), Cronin (lock).
Group 2: Newly Eligible 2018 High School-age drafted players under consideration for protection
This section is always easy, since we rarely draft HS kids, but this year there’s a big name.
Denaburg, Mason. 1st rounder 2018. Made 13 starts in Low-A this year after multiple seasons of injury issues. Obviously not a candidate to get drafted despite his 1st round pedigree. Example 1-A of why drafting prep RH pitchers in the 1st round is risky.
Group 2 Rule-5 Protection Candidates: none.
Group 3: Newly Eligible 2018 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:
Note; we have a ton of 2018 IFAs on the big board; i’m not going to bother naming these guys unless they’re out of rookie ball, even if they’re mentioned on roster resource as someone to watch.
Rivero, Yoander: hit a combined .214 between low and high A. Not a protection candidate.
De La Cruz, Christopher: hit well in FCL, but then struggled in Low-A. Not a candidate.
Caceres, Bryan: 5.92 ERA in a full year in the Low-A rotation. Not a candidate.
Theophile, Rodney: destroyed Low-A in the rotation, then put up a 5 ERA in high-A. Not a candidate. Just got selected to play for Nicaragua though in the WBC, so he’ll get some exposure. Someone to watch.
Ferrer, Jose ; Great year as the high-A closer, earning two promotions and ending the year in AA. Lefty, but undersized. Definitely a breakout candidate for us in 2022, but would he get picked? Perhaps. A small risk if he’s left unprotected.
Pena, Bryan: 5.74 ERA in low-A, not a candidate.
Guasch, Richard; trade bounty from Oakland for Gomes/Harrison; did well in High-A while repeating but got shelled in AA. Not a candidate.
De La Rosa, Jeremy: Crushed in Low-A in 2022, slashing .315/.394/.515. Moved up to High-A and struggled. A solid prospect for sure, not yet a rule-5 candidate. Someone to watch in 2023.
Atencio, Jose: Eight starts in Low-A this year, decent numbers. Not a candidate, but is only 21 and could be a name to watch in 2023.
Ramirez, Aldo: trade bounty for Schwarber, but who missed the entirety of 2022 with injury.
Group 3 Rule-5 Protection Candidates: Ferrer (maybe).
Group 4: Rule-5 Eligible Drafted/Domestic hold-overs of note: these are players who were rule-5 eligible previously but who put together a nice 2021 and might need additional thought. They’re sort of organized by draft year, from 2017 to earlier. Note; draft signings from 2015 hit 6-year MLFA this off-season, so they’re not listed here).
Tim Cate, 2nd rounder from 2018. 5.31 ERA in 21 starts in AA in 2021, and was subject of much discussion around rule-5 last year. As it turns out, it was all for naught; in 2022 he got demoted to High-A, then upon his return to AA posted a 6.16 ERA. Ouch. Is he even a prospect at this point? Unsure; certainly he’s not going to get protected.
Alex Troop, 9th rounder from 2017. He missed nearly all of 2018 with injuries, so he’s gotten a late start. He was a workhorse in AA in 2022, a swingman with middling numbers but filling in. Not a candidate to protect.
Armond Upshaw, 11th rounder from 2016. Promoted to AA in 2021, where he hit .186. Missed the entire 2022 season with injury. Not a candidate to protect.
Matt Merrill, a 2020 MLFA originally drafted in 2017 by Houston. Pitched his way out of the High-A rotation and ended the year as a swing-man eating up low-leverage innings and nearly a 7 ERA. His time may be short with the org.
Cody Wilson, 13th rounder in 2018: hit a combined .124/.225/.164 across three levels in 2021 as a backup CF. In High-A as a 26yr old in 2022. Not a prospect.
Onix Vega, 20th round catcher from 2018: hit .233 in Low-A in 2021, then was the starter in High-A in 2022 with decent numbers. If we’re not protecting Millas, we’re certainly not protecting Vega.
Cole Daily, 22nd rounder from 2018: hit just .193 across several levels in 2021 as he was bounced around to provide middle infield cover for the lower minors. Hit .222 in High-A in 2022. Not a prospect.
Jake Irvin, 4th rounder from 2018. spent all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, then was babied in 2022 to build back up arm strength. Finished in AA with middling numbers; he’s someone to keep an eye on in 2023 for sure, but not likely a candidate to get protected at this point.
Carson Teel, 16th rounder from 2018: had a decent 2021 season, earning a promotion from AA to AAA as a long man/spot starter. Same thing happened in 2022; bounced around and mopped up innings. Not really a prospect, just an org arm.
Ryan Tapani, 21st rounder from 2018 who never appeared in 2022; unsure if he’s even still with the organization at this point.
Justin Connell, 11th rounder from 2017: starting corner OF for high-A in 2021, then promoted to AA in 2022. Despite being with us forever, he’s only 23, but has never garnered much prospect buzz. Not a candidate to be protected.
Trey Harris came to us in the 2022 trade deadline and was a 2018 draftee, so he’s Rule-5 eligible. He didn’t exactly light AA on fire this year (.630 OPS) so he’s not likely to get plucked.
Matt Brill was a minor league R5 draftee and 17D guy. In 2022 for us he was great in AA, struggled in AAA. Seems like an edge-of-the-40man roster RHP reliever, not a guy who will stick in the majors. Low risk to get picked.
Names released from this list in 2022: K.J. Harrison, Jacob Condra-Bogan, Cole Freeman, Alex Dunlap, Jackson Stoeckinger, Gage Canning, Jacob Rhinesmith, Kyle Marinconz, Andrew Karp, Chandler Day, Frankie Bartow
Names no longer eligible b/c they’ve made it to MLB: Evan Lee
Names now MLFAs: Nick Banks, Andrew Lee, Ike Schlabach
Again, if the IFA isn’t out of rookie ball there’s no point in discussing.
Jordy Barley, SS, trade return from San Diego for Daniel Hudson. Hit .203 in High-A, not a candidate.
Wilmer Perez, C. the 2016 IFA was mostly a backup Catcher in high-A, hit .206. same for 2022.
Geraldo Diaz, C. hit .217 as a backup catcher in Low-A in 2021, then .254 in 2022 as the notional starter. Still not a candidate to be drafted.
Viandel Pena, SS. Hit .214 in Low-A in 2021, then a few points higher in High-A in 2022. Not a candidate to get drafted.
Ricardo Mendez, OF. Hit .227 in HighA this year. Not a candidate.
Leandro Emiliani, hit .165 between the GCL and Low-A in 2021, then .228 in High-A in 2022. Still not a candidate to be drafted, unclear why he keeps earning promotions.
Pedro Gonzalez, SP. was in the 2021 opening day rotation for Low-A, demoted after giving up 19 runs in 9 innings. In 2022, he again got shelled in low-A, this time as a reliever. Time is running out for Pedro.
Carlos Romero, RP. Pitched as a swing-man in 2021 Low-A, posted a 5.00 ERA and a 1.63 whip. Still in that role in 2022, but pitched to a 3.36 ERA with 97Ks in 72ip. Interesting. Still not a candidate to get picked, but someone to watch in 2023.
Karlo Seijas, SP. somehow stayed in the Low-A rotation the entire season, making 22 starts and pitching to a 6.84 ERA. Got absolutely shelled in 2022 in Low-A and is on the restricted list; may have been released.
Jose Sanchez, SS. The 2016IFA Hit .232 as the part time SS in low-A, somehow got to High-A in 2022, hit .231. Not a candidate.
Alfonso Hernandez, SP. The 2016IFA showed a ton of promise after a solid 2021 season, but missed the entire 2022 season on the DL.
Niomar Gomez, SP. the 2016IFA threw just 6 innings in 2021 and then missed the entire 2022 season with injury.
Wilson Garcia, a C we signed as a MLFA but who is Rule-5 Eligible. he’s 28, he raked as a DH only in AA this year, and of course i’d be shocked if he got picked. But he’s on here.
Luis Reyes, a 2013IFA who’s still hanging around. He got no less than 21 starts in our system between AA and AAA, a ridiculous indictment of our development system as of late (that we opted to give so many starts in AA to a 28yr old versus a prospect). not a candidate.
Francys Peguero: a 13IFA who’s still hanging around. He had a 4.89 ERA in AA this year as a 27yr old. Not a candidate.
Names lost from this list in 2022: Juan Diaz, Omar Meregildo, Malvin Pena, Jorge Hurtado, Andry Arias,
Names no longer eligible b/c they’ve made it to MLB roster: Israel Pineda
Names now MLFAs: Gilberto Chu, Gilbert Lara
Group 5 Protection Candidates: no one.
Group 6: Former 40-man guys who have been outrighted previously
Jake Noll, 7th rounder from 2016. Its unclear whether a guy who has been outrighted is R5 eligible, but Noll is now 28 and put up serviceable numbers in AAA. I don’t sense he’s a candidate.
Group 6 protection candidates: none.
So, who would I protect?
Summary of above:
Group 1: Millas (slight), Alu (maybe). Rutledge (doubtful), Cronin (lock). Group 2: none Group 3: Ferrer (maybe). Group 4: Irvin (not really), Brill (doubtful) Group 5: none Group 6: none
—
So, who would I would protect?
Based on there only being one 40-man spot open right now, I predict we protect just one player:
Matt Cronin
If we had more … I would consider protecting, in order of likelihood:
Jake Alu
Drew Millas
Jackson Rutledge
Jose Ferrer
Post Publishing Results: Wow, they added SIX players! Cronin, Alu, De La Rosa, Rutledge, Ferrer, and Irvin. A couple of these were pretty big surprises to me.
Soon to be named MVP Judge headlines the 14 QO recipients . Photo via SI Kids online
The GM Meetings are underway, now that the little matter of the 2022 World Series is settled (sorry Bryce, still no title for you). And thus the 2022-2023 off-season is underway. We’ll have our regular content (things like Rule-5 protection analysis/predictions, non-tender deadline predictions, and of course prospects), but first up is the Qualifying Offer!
The player’s union really wants to get rid of it; the owner’s don’t really care since it operates as yet another safeguard on their payrolls. This past summer the owners offered to get rid of the QO in return for an international draft … which in my mind would likely kill foreign baseball in a number of countries. The union thankfully said no thanks, so here we are.
Here’s the 14 players who got a QO:
2022
Aaron Judge
RF
PSI Sports Management
New York Yankees
1yr/$19M
19
19
2022
Jacob deGrom
SP
VC Sports
New York Mets
5yr/$137.5M
27.5
33.5
2022
Xander Bogaerts
SS
Scott Boras/Boras Corporation
Boston Red Sox
6yr/$120M
20
20
2022
Dansby Swanson
SS
Excel Sports Management
Atlanta Braves
1yr/$10M
10
10
2022
Trea Turner
SS
CAA
Los Angeles Dodgers
1yr/$21M
21
21
2022
Willson Contreras
C
?? Unknown
Chicago Cubs
1yr/$9.625
9.625
9.625
2022
Carlos Rodon
SP
Scott Boras/Boras Corporation
San Francisco Giants
2yr/$44M
22
22.5
2022
Chris Bassitt
SP
Pro Star Management
New York Mets
1yr/$8.8M
8.8
8.8
2022
Brandon Nimmo
OF
CAA
New York Mets
1yr/$7M
7
7
2022
Nathan Eovaldi
SP
ACES
Boston Red Sox
4yr/$68
17
17
2022
Anthony Rizzo
1B
Sports One
New York Yankees
2yr/$32M
16
16
2022
Joc Pederson
OF
Excel Sports Management
San Francisco Giants
1yr/$6M
6
6
2022
Martin Perez
SP
Octagon
Texas Rangers
1yr/$4M
4
4
2022
Tyler Anderson
SP
GSE
Los Angeles Dodgers
1yr/$8M
8
8
Notice something about this list? They’re all Big market teams! Breakdown by team:
Yankees: 2
Mets: 3
Red Sox: 2
Dodgers: 2
Giants: 2
Cubs: 1
Rangers: 1
Braves: 1
I mean … there’s not one “mid-sized” or smaller market team here. its basically a list comprised of players from the largest markets in the land. By CMSA:
New York: 1
Los Angeles: 2
Chicago: 4
San Francisco: 5
Boston: 6
Dallas: 7
Atlanta 10.
That missing #3 spot? Yeah that’d be us. Washington-Baltimore CMSA is now the 3rd largest in the area, having recently overtaken Chicago.
the larger point is this: these are the sport’s biggest and wealthiest teams basically set to gain a bunch of extra picks because they happen to have a bunch of highly paid players on their rosters.
Now that being said … there are some obvious QO candidates and some guys who just got tagged in one who… are kind of a surprise. Lets categorize:
Players who will reject the QO and will get FAR more in AAV:
Judge, DeGrom, Turner, Bogarts,
These are all going to be major FAs this off-season, getting 30M or more a year.
Players who will reject the QO and who will get a bit more in AAV but longer term deals:
Swanson, Rodon: probably getting 5-6 years at $22-$25M per.
Contreras is the #1 catcher available and likely gets a 4-5 year deal at a tick above the QO.
Players who may struggle to get an AAV contract matching the $19.65M QO
Nimmo: interestingly he’s always had solid production but is “only” on a 1yr/$7M deal at the end of his arb years. Odd. He stepped up his power this year though and MLB trade rumors is projecting a 5yr $110M deal. We’ll see. Seems farfetched.
Eovaldi: he was decent this year, but not earth shattering while making $17M AAV. I could see him getting like a 3-4 year deal at $20M AAV.
Rizzo: 34yrs old, had a great 2022 in a lefty-hitter’s paradise in NY, but is 1B only. I can’t imagine him doing much better than his $16M AAV contract, and needs to be careful where he goes.
Bassitt is a serviceable mid-rotation starter with solid stuff. He’s the kind of guy you get in the 15th round of your fantasy draft and you look like a genius. He only made $8.8M this year, but seems set to get a decently sized contract right above the QO.
Players who may want to take that QO
Pederson: he blew it up in 2022, putting in a 144 OPS+ season after not really being effective at all the last few seasons. Is this enough for a team to sign him to a multi-year deal at $20M per? Doubt it: he clearly likes SF and he should take that QO to see if he can replicate 2022, then go back out on the market unencumbered in 2023.
Perez: he went from years of ERAs in the 4s and 5s to a 2.73 ERA season in 2022. He played for just $4M this year; he’s almost a lock to accept the QO since no other team is going to give up a pick for a guy who might regress to the mean.
Anderson: Like Perez, he went from a 4.81 ERA to a 2.57 ERA with the Dodgers, and after making just $8M this year seems a lock to take the QO and give it another go with Los Angeles.
A couple of years ago, in a pique of sarcasm, I wrote up an automated system for MVP voting. I should trade mark it. Lets see how my system works for 2022.
This list of steps allows you to quickly pick the top 8-10 MVP vote getters in each league each season as a way to predict the award. 1. Make list of best teams in league/division winners. 2. Identify the “most famous” and/or Best hitter on each team. 3. Check WAR lists and league leaders for candidates not on winning teams, or “famous” players with solid seasons. 4. Add in incredibly dominant pitchers, especially if they’re from a team that doesn’t have a real dominant hitter. 5. Apply appropriate ‘weights” for East coast players over West coast, especially if the player is with New York or Boston (I call this the Media adjustment). Also weight small market players lower than larger market, more famous players. 6. Apply appropriate “discounts” for non-division winning players and those who have already won (I call this the “Narrative” adjustment).
Lets apply my system for this year.
NAR MVP Predictor for the AL 2022 MVP
#1/2: Best teams and their best Hitter:
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge
Houston: Yordan Alvarez
Cleveland: Jose Ramirez
Toronto: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Seattle: Julio Rodriguez
Tampa Bay: (nobody: you couldn’t pick their WAR leaders out of a lineup)
#3: Add in the following names based on WAR league leaders
Shohei Ohtani, Angels (2nd in WAR)
Andres Gimenez, Cleveland (3rd in the league in WAR, more than his more famous teammate Ramirez)
Mike Trout, Angels (8th in the league in WAR)
Carlos Correa, Minnesota (10th in league in batter WAR)
#4; Add in best pitchers
Alex Manoah, Toronto: #2 pitcher in bWAR, but for a playoff team.
Dylan Cease, White Sox: #1 pitcher in bWAR
#5 Add in Media adjustments
Ramp weight up for New York-based Judge, Increase weights for “famous” players Ohtani, Trout, Guerrero, Alvarez. Weight down Seattle and Cleveland players.
#6: Ohtani and Trout will lose points thanks to the Angel’s continued futility.
Results? Here’s my bold prediction on the AL MVP voting:
Judge
Ohtani
Alvarez
Guerrero
Rodriguez
Manoah
Trout
Ramierz
Gimenez
Correa
Perhaps in 2022, with Judge’s historic HR chase, his Triple Crown chase, and his 10+ WAR season, its a no-brainer. But Ohtani is arguably having a better season than he had in 2021, so you never know.
ACTUAL RESULTS: tbd (will add in post announcement and judge my predictions)
NAR MVP Predictor for the NL 2022 MVP
#1/2: Best teams and their best Hitter:
Los Angeles: Freddie Freeman
Atlanta: Austin Riley
New York Mets: Pete Alonso
St. Louis: Paul Goldschmidt
San Diego: Manny Machado
Philadelphia: J.T. Realmuto
Milwaukee: (nobody really)
#3: Add in the following names based on WAR league leaders
Mookie Betts: LAD
Nolan Arenado: STL
Francisco Lindor, NYM
#4; Add in best pitchers
Sandy Alcantara, Miami
Max Fried, NY Mets
#5 Add in Media adjustments
Ramp weight up for New York-based Alonso. Ramp up weight for the famous players like Machado, Gldschmidt, Betts, Freeman. Lower weights for Realmuto, Riley
#6: Alcantara loses points playing for loser Miami.
Results? Here’s my bold prediction on the NL MVP voting, which is significantly tougher to predict this year than the AL.
Goldschmidt
Machado
Arenado
Alcantara
Realmuto
Riley
Freeman
Betts
Lindor
Alonso
ACTUAL RESULTS: tbd (will add in post announcement and judge my predictions)
This is a Tank. This is also what Washington did this season. Photo credit: some German newspaper; does it really matter? 🙂
(quick personal note: apologies for the radio silence here. I have not posted since September 9th, more than 6 weeks ago. Not that there was a ton to post about; when the team emptied its coffers of all remaining players with any trade value, it wasn’t a surprise how the rest of the season was going to play out. That being said, we moved at the end of August and i’m working multiple consulting gigs, and, well, its been tough to put the time in on this blog with so many other items pressing for my time. I hope to do better this off-season, doing some typical non-tender, arbitration, rule-5 posts, etc).
It seems typical that the Nats would manage to finish with their worst record since moving to 2005 (and nearly their worst record ever as a franchise, being only pipped by the amazingly bad 52-110 1969 Montreal debut season) in the exact same year that MLB goes to a draft lottery at the top of the draft. So, instead of having the biggest bonus pool and first crack at the top draft talent … we have to wait to see where we actually pick. Perhaps this is penance for the amazing set of circumstances that led us to pick 1st overall two years in a row, which netted us both Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper and set the franchise on a pathway towards multiple playoff runs and the 2019 World Series title.
How quickly the tides turn, and this year we finished 55-107, which guaranteed us the worst record in the league by a full 5 games over the Oakland Athletics.
Each non-playoff team is assigned odds of getting the top pick.
The worst three teams each have equal odds at 16.5%, meaning that despite the fact that Washington was worse than Oakland and Pittsburgh, we all have the same chance.
The lottery only lasts the first 6 picks, then goes in direct order after that.
So, We have basically a 1 in 6 chance of getting the #1 pick. We have right around a 50% chance of getting a top 3 picks, and we can pick no worst than 7th.
So, its a coin flip that we get into the top 3, meaning its highly likely we get a really solid pick. I’ve already started collecting names for the top of the 2023 draft. Right now the top prospects are looking like the following:
College Prospects:
Dylan Crews, OF/RF LSU. Opted out of 2020 draft as a projected 2nd rounder, now might go 1-1. Hit .362/.453/.663 as a freshman. sept 2022 #1 player in the class.
Jacob Gonzalez, SS Ole Miss. Bonafide SS who hit .355/.443/.561 with 12 home runs and more walks (38) than strikeouts (34) his freshman year. #1 prospect in class Dec 2021.
Chase Dollander, RHP Tennessee. 2nd team AA in 2022, mid 90sfb with good off-speed. Helium guy mid 2022, not sure why he’s jumped other candidates.
Rhett Lowder, RHP Wake Forest. ACC pitcher of year in 2022, starred for Team USA summer 2022.
Prep Prospects:
Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community HS. Vanderbilt commit, lefty hitting OF prospect #1 prep player in the class as of mid 2021. Went 5-5 one day at Area codes. #1 prep player in draft per BA Sept 2022.
Walker Jenkins OF, South Brunswick HS, Southport, N.C. 18U national team as underclassman in 2021. #1 HS player in class per Fangraphs Dec 2021, #2 prep in class per BA Sept 2022.
Cam Collier, 3B Mount Paran Christian HS, Kennsaw, Ga.. Louisville commit, huge power, biggest bat in class.
So, even in the worst case, where the Nats are shut out of the lottery and pick 7th, one of these players is absolutely going to be available, or a player who pops up this coming spring. So, all is not lost: don’t forget that we have gotten really solid players drafting in the #4-6 overall range in the past:
Ryan Zimmerman was 4th overall in 2005
Ross Detwiler was 6th overall in 2007
Anthony Rendon was 6th overall in 2011 (via a set of circumstances that still boggles the mind to this day)
Elijah Green was 5th overall this year.
The lottery order likely is set at the Winter Meetings, so we’ll revisit this post then.
Until then … are you finding yourself actually rooting for Philadelphia and Bryce Harper in the playoffs? Are you rooting for San Diego with their own ex-Nat super star Juan Soto? Great games so far.
Today, the MLB competition committee voted in three rule changes to go into effect in 2023. One is minor, but two are significant, major changes that will alter the sport.
Here’s a couple other opinion pieces on them, from the Athletic and Baseball America, but below i’ll put in my two cents.
Larger Bases, Pitch Clocks, and Shift Bans are going in. Lets talk about them one by one.
Bigger Bases: a non-issue, i’m not sure why anyone would really care about a slightly larger base. They avoid injuries and slightly help the running game. Studies show base-related injuries are down 13.8% since the larger bases were installed. And not surprisingly both the executives and players on the committee voted for this unanimously.
Pitch Clocks. I know current major league pitchers are going to whine about them. But the results speak for themselves: The average time of games in the minors where the pitch clock was implemented went from 3:04 in 2021 to 2:38 in 2022. That’s 26 minutes … ALL of it dead time watching the pitcher and batter stand there, waiting for the next pitch. This is a fantastic move that will have serious, positive watchability impacts on the game.
Defensive Shift bans: two players must now stay between 2nd and 3rd base (meaning, no more roving third baseman into short RF against lefties), and all players must have their feet on the dirt. The evidence supporting this change is pretty clear: as documented by Jayson Stark in this Feb 2022 piece, 4,802 hits were taken away by the shift in 2021, which is countered by 3,946 outs given away by shifts that gave away a standard ground ball. That’s nearly 1,000 extra hits gone from the game, primarily against left-handed hitters. So, this change will absolutely return some offensive parity to the game.
I like all three changes. I look forward to them in 2023.
Cade Cavalli gets the call Photo via Lookout Landing blog
So, the big news of the week is the call-up of top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli. The timing (and change in service time rules) means he’ll still be 2023 Rookie eligible and doesn’t burn enough time to blow a year of service time.
Is this premature? Probably not. Cavalli started out a little slow this year in AAA, basically getting shelled in five of his first seven starts. In mid May he had a 7.62 ERA. However, as of this writing through his combined 20 starts he’s gotten that seasonal ERA all the way down to 3.71. His AAA FIP is a nifty 3.23, and across the board he’s improved upon his 2021 AAA numbers in every category (K/9, BB/9, ERA, fip, whip, HR/9, etc etc).
HIs MLB debut was about what you’d expect; 7 runs in 4+ innings, 97mph on his fastball, 6 Ks almost all on his offspeed stuff (which looks amazing: his curve was knee buckling and his circle change at 88 with a ton of reverse movement was fantastic).
I can’t remember the last time we had a prospect debut with this much fanfare; Strasburg or Harper probably. His call-up was non-nats blog worthy, something we havn’t seen in a while.
As others noted, his start coincided with a big chunk of our “up the spine” future in place: Ruiz catching, Cavalli pitching, Abrams at short and Garcia at 2nd. None of them older than 24, all of them with prospect buzz.
So, when both Luis Garcia and Yadiel Hernandez went down with injuries … the Nats active 26-man roster sports exactly ONE originally drafted/signed player (that being Victor Robles).
Now, in all fairness the roster does contain several players acquired as prospects in trade, which is kind of the point of a rebuild, so I thought it’d be interesting to squint at our rosters right now and do quick arithmetic of the roster construction to show where we are.
This data is as of 8/23/22 and depends on my Big Board being accurate (which it may not be b/c transactions are sneaky sometimes). Only looking at active players, not DL/restricted.
MiLB FAs 14 (Johnson, JRodriguez, Nogoski, Flores, Gushue, Ponce de Leon, Kilome, Verrett, Weems, Sadzeck, Garrett, Machado, Baldonado, Avilan)
Waiver claims: 3 (Fox, Murphy, Perez)
Rule5: 2 (Brill, Taylor)
Yes, I realize that two of were originally our players (Johnson, Rodriguez). They left and came back, so they’re MLFAs. Also Gushue was initially acquired in trade, but left and came back. This is 2022 acquisition methodology.
So, 30 players in AAA, and 19 of them are basically ‘filler’ players b/c our system hasn’t generated enough depth to fill the AAA roster. At least we have 9 home grown players here, but of this group really only a couple are true prospects in jeopardy of pushing to the majors.
How about AA?
Home Grown: 17
Prospects Acquired in trade: 3 (Lara, Hassell,Harris)
17 of the 27 on the Roster home grown as expected (and another 3 are trade acquisitions). But its a little suspect that we have 6 MLFAs in our AA. A couple of these MLFAs in Harrisburg are in their upper 20s and are clearly too old for the level. On the bright side, 6 of the 7 guys getting starts are home grown, which is a good sign.
High-A?
Home Grown: 26
Prospects Acquired in trade: 4 (Millas, Barley, Alston, Gausch)
MLB FAs: 0 of course.
MiLB FAs; 2 (Candelario, Merrill)
Waiver claims:
Rule5
So, 30 of 32 players on the roster home grown or acquired prospects.
Low-A:
31 players, 30 of which home grown and the one remaining is a trade acquisition in Wood.
Not much to look at below AA … this was more just a “holy cow look at the MLB roster” kind of post.
Green’s pick may have been polarizing, but the MLBpipeline staff is not concerned, ranking him immediately #2 in the system. Photo via districtondeck.com
The MLB pipeline team (Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo, etc) has just released an updated version of the top 30 for all teams, and instead of just plugging in trade acquisitions and 2022 draft picks, they’ve also taken the time to adjust players up/down based on their 2022 seasons. So this is a refreshing look at where we are right now as a system without having to make excuses for odd rankings that date to last off-season.
Abrams has just graduated. Cavalli was ranked #53 in July and has gotten bumped a bit (probably to make room for 2022 top-end draftees). However, House was ranked #53 in July by this squad and has now gotten knocked entirely out of the top 100 thanks to an injury filled 2022 and the influx of a ton of 2022 draftees. That’s a huge move down for House, who this same group had ranked as high as #44 in May of 2022.
Anyway, lets look at the Nats top 30. Here’s the full list, with some comments below:
mlbp rank
Last Name
First Name
Position
1
Hassell III
Robert
OF (CF)
2
Green
Elijah
OF (CF)
3
Wood
James
OF (Corner)
4
Cavalli
Cade
RHP (Starter)
5
House
Brady
SS/3B
6
Henry
Cole
RHP (Starter)
7
Vaquero
Cristian
OF (CF)
8
Susana
Jarlin
RHP (Starter)
9
Bennett
Jake
LHP (Starter)
10
De La Rosa
Jeremy
OF (Corner)
11
Cruz
Armando
SS
12
Rutledge
Jackson
RHP (Starter)
13
Lara
Andry
RHP (Starter)
14
Carrillo
Gerardo
RHP (Starter)
15
Lile
Daylen
OF (CF)
16
Quintana
Roismar
OF (CF)
17
Lipscomb
Trey
3B
18
Ramirez
Aldo
RHP (Starter)
19
Antuna
Yasel
SS/OF (Corner)
20
White
T.J.
OF (Corner)
21
Cox
Brenner
OF (CF)
22
McKenzie
Jared
OF (CF)
23
Ferrer
Jose
LHP (Reliever)
24
Brzykcy
Zach
RHP (Reliever)
25
Cronin
Matt
LHP (Reliever)
26
Pineda
Israel
C
27
Parker
Mitchell
LHP (Starter)
28
Infante
Samuel
SS
29
Lee
Evan
LHP (Starter)
30
Millas
Drew
C
Thoughts/comments on the guys who have moved up or down significantly, as well as general comments.
8 of our top 30 are newly acquired: 3 from the big SDP trade, 5 from the draft.
A comment here; if MLBpipeline has ranked our top 5 draft picks from 2022 … why would Baseball America have only ranked one of them? MLBpipeline has our 2nd rounder Jake Bennett ranked as the 9th best guy in the system; BA didn’t even have him in their top 30. I could understand not quibbling/splitting hairs on guys in the 20s, but Bennett is a significant prospect.
Green comes in at #2 from the start. By way of comparison, Fangraphs has him #8 in the system.
They’ve jumped up Jeremey De La Rosa 6 slots from just two weeks ago, despite his slow start in High-A. But this is recognition of his dominance of low-A as a 20yr old. We don’t talk about De La Rosa a lot, but the guy could be a sneaky good prospect for us, combining power (10 homers in 63 games in Low-A this year) with speed (26 SBs in that same period) and defense (a true CF, though with a ton of errors and few assists).
Cristian Vaquero has stayed at #7 despite getting “layered” by a few prospects above him entering, meaning they’ve increased his rank. I’m not entirely sure why; he’s got kind of middling DSL stats this year, has hit just one homer in 50 games, and his slugging is lower than his OBP. The guy is 6’3″ … where’s the power? He has almost no XBHs all year.
They’ve dropped Rutledge a few spots, from #6 to #12. Finally recognizing that this guy may just not have it to be a starter. He’s just too inconsistent. One night he’s giving up 4 hits through 8, the next he’s giving up 8 runs through 4.
They’ve jumped up Roismar Quintana a bunch of slots; he’s had a very solid FCL season slashing .315/.367/.481 as a 19yr old. Unfortunately, there’s nowhere for him to go, because the low-A outfield consists of White, De La Cruz, and Wood, with McKenzie trying to find ABs. This is a prime example of why teams really could use those short-season A squads. Not to mention the fact that there’s now (if the Big Board is accurate) 48 players on the FCL roster.
Yasel Antuna now down to #19. Thank gosh the team has all sorts of 4-A/veteran MLFA types on the 40-man, because Antuna’s spot should have long ago gotten cleared. This didn’t stop the team from promoting him to AA this week, which seems to be kind of “social promotion” to cover for a cascading set of moves freeing up LF spots at AA and AAA.
T.J. White moving up; now #20 from #27.
Our 3rd, 4th and 5th rounders (who BA couldn’t find room for) are ranked 17th, 21st and 22nd in the system as they start to slot in.
Matt Cronin and Mitchell Parker both take dives in the rankings, due to layering and performance.
The following guys were bumped entirely off the top 30:
Brandon Boissiere: was #19, that’s a big drop. He’s just not doing anything special in AA while playing primarily 1B.
Donovan Casey: was #21, then got DFA’d, unclaimed and was outrighted. That’s … not good for your career.
Jackson Cluff: was #24, and we’ve had discussions questioning why he’s ranked in the first place. He’s the backup SS in Harrisburg and is hitting .191 this season.
Dustin Saenz: was #25, hasn’t done anything wrong; he earned a promotion to High-A but has struggled since.
Jordan Barley: was #28. You can’t hit .203 and be a prospect.
Mason Denaburg: was #29. Hey, at least he’s pitching. he’s made 10 starts for low-A with decent numbers so far.
Jake Irvin: was #30. I’m happy with his numbers in AA this year; again nothing earth shattering but after not pitching an inning since 2019 this is solid.
Three of the main scouting bureaus (MLBPipeline, Baseball America, Fangraphs) have plugged in d the haul from the Soto/Bell deal (and two of them have also added in our draft class), so lets take a quick peek at where our newly acquired players rank.
Note: C.J. Abrams has not technically exhausted his rookie status (he has 139PAs but only 125 official At Bats, which is what the guidelines are based on). As a result, he’s on some lists but not others.
Fangraphs adds our top 5 drafted players in 2022, plus 4 newly acquired prospects via trade.
C.J. Abrams, our new #1 overall prospect, who was in the majors and will soon graduate off this list, but he reported to AAA to work on some stuff before likely returning in September when rosters expand.
Robert Hassell III, our new #3 prospect per fangraphs (though other shops have him higher, see below). He’ll report to our High-A.
James Woods, our new #4 prospect per Fangraphs; he should head to Fredericksburg to join the monster roster there (which now includes our 2018 1st rounder Denaburg, our 2019 1st Rounder Rutledge, our 2021 1st rounder in House, our 2020 2nd rounder Infante and our 2021 3rd rounder Boissiere. That’s a lot of top drafted talent.
Elijah Green: new #8 prospect. Upon his drafting he slotted in at #5 initially, just behind the “big 3” and also just behind Cuban IFA monster Vaquero (who, I might add, is not exactly tearing up the DSL right now in his first pro season). However he’s now pushed down by the above 3 players.
Jarlin Susana now slots in at #10, and should head to our FCL with an idea of moving to Low-A soon.
Jake Bennett slots in at #12. Upon his drafting he slotted in at #8, in-between Rutledge (who still cannot get people out in Low-A) and Carrillo (who i’m beginning to worry about from a progression stand point).
Trey Lipscomb slots in at #21, pushed down 4 spots from his initia #17 spot, right after Lile (who is out for the entirety of 2022), and right before fellow infielders Infante and Alu interestingly. Infante is showing some power this year in Low-A but otherwise hitting .220, while Alu has a .800 OPS in AAA as a 25-yr old but falls into the “utility infielder” category of prospects, with a high floor to make the majors but a limited ceiling.
Brenner Cox slots in at #30, pushed down from #26 a few weeks ago, right behind former 1st rounder Denaburg but ahead of fellow OF prospect Quintana. Cox got paid like a 3rd rounder but was not really ranked by any of the pundits, which gives me some pause.
Jared McKenzie slots in at #36 (initially #32), right after Quintana and just ahead of org guys/barely prospects like Fox and Baker. I suppose this is right; if McKenzie turns into anything other than an org guy as a 5th rounder it’ll be found gold.
So, per Fangraphs we’ve acquired our new #1, #3, #4, #8, and #10 system prospects.
How about per MLBpipeline.com? They lagged updating the prospect ranks for 2022 draftees for a bit, but did rank the trade acquisitions immediately. Here’s where our trade acquisitions now slot in:
C.J. Abrams: Not ranked; perhaps MLBpipeline is assuming he’s exhausted his eligibility.
Robert Hassell III: new #1 prospect
James Woods: new #4 prospect
Jarlin Susana: new #8 prospect
Odds are that when they add in our draftees, Green would slot in probably between #6 and #7, and Bennett would slot into the teens. Its doubtful they’d rate Lipscomb, Cox, or McKenzie for our top 30 right now.
Unlike Fangraphs, BA chose not to rank any of the rest of our 2022 drafting class:
Jake Bennett: this one is pretty amazing to me. Fangraphs had him top 10! And he’s not good enough for our top 30 per BA?
Trey Lipscomb: BA has Infante ranked 20th right now. I’m pretty sure Infante just lost his starting 3B job in High-A to … Lipscomb. So, maybe Lipscomb should be ranked and Infante not.
Brenner Cox: Probably not going to quibble about a prep kid just drafted not being ranked in the top 30.
Jared McKenzie: Upper 30s for Fangraphs, which means he’s nowhere near the BA top 30 right now.
So, per BA we’ve acquired our new top 4 system prospects, plus the 8th in Susana.
Interestingly, BA also took the opportunity to shake up some of their ranks a bit from their last ranking on 7/13/22.
They’ve bumped up Jeremey De la Rosa 5 spots
They’ve dropped Andry Lara 6 spots
They dropped Rutledge a grand total of 1 spot.
… Which makes no sense: Lara and Rutledge have almost identical stats this year in Low-A; Eras of 5.48 and 5.54, WHIPs of 1.46 and 1.47. Lara has more Ks but also more Walks, while Rutledge has a much worse BAA of .290 to Lara’s .252. Lara is 19, while Rutledge is 23. So, the 23yr old gets dropped one spot for having WORSE numbers in Low-A than the 19yr old?? Really?
They’ve bumped up Henry a couple spots
They’ve dropped Carrillo a couple slots
they’ve dropped $3.9M bonus baby Armando Cruz two spots.
They’ve dropped Antuna a couple spots; he’s now ranked #14 in the system. Still. So we’re on the same page, Antuna is 22, in High-A, hitting .234 while repeating the level and is still somehow ranked 14th in the system. At least he’s not top 5 any more.
they’ve got Donovan Casey 25th; whoops. He got DFA’d this week.
