Nationals Arm Race

Photo by Carlos Avila Gonzalez / San Francisco Chronicle

The SF Giants finished with the 5th best record in the majors.  Clearly they were an elite team and won their division, but finished the season five games worse than the same Phillies that they dispatched in 6 games in the NLCS.

Their victory in the World Series continues an interesting trend in Baseball, and in most of the other major sports in this country for that matter, where the team with the best record in the regular season does not win the year end title.  I call it the “wild card” effect on professional sports.  Each major sport has a playoff structure that allows in “wild card” teams that have a chance to win the year end title despite not even being able to win their own division throughout the regular season.

Here’s a quick rundown of the best Baseball teams in the regular season (by overall record) versus who won the WS.  I’ve got the data going back to 1990, a convenient starting point since the Wild Card was instituted in 1994.  Bolded means that the best team won the WS:

Since 1990, only THREE times has the team with the best regular season record won the World Series.  The fantastic 1998 NY Yankees team, the 2007 Boston Red Sox and last year’s 2009 Yankees team.  This year, the Rays fell to Texas and the Phillies fell to the Giants, meaning the two best teams in the league didn’t even make the World Series.  This “wild card” effect resulted in one of the regular season teams ever (the 2001 Seattle Mariners) not even reaching the World Series (falling at the hands of the Yankees, who then lost to the wild card Diamondbacks).  Several times wild card teams have won the WS out right (Florida in 97 and the 04 Red Sox as other examples), meaning that our WS champion would not have even qualified for the playoffs just a few years earlier.  For some reason I find this troubling.

Are the other major sports even worse?   Both the NBA and NHL allow in more than half the league’s teams to the playoffs.  In the MLS, half the teams qualify and then play a “home-and-home” first round of playoff games, essentially negating any home-field advantage earned by winning your division (ridiculous frankly; why have any value to the regular season?)   Football seems to have a pretty well-regarded playoff system right now but the imbalanced talent in the 2010 season may result in deserving AFC 10-6 teams being left out in favor of 8-8 NFC teams.  Here’s a quick breakdown of our major leagues and the percentage of teams allowed into the playoffs.

Baseball still has the stringiest playoff-qualifications, even post 1994 wild card expansion.  Now Bud Selig wants to add in more wild card teams in what is clearly a money-grab for his fellow greedy owners (a third of whom are basically refusing to field a competitive team and are sucking in revenue sharing dollars like a trust fund kid).

So, how many times do the other leagues crown their best regular season team as champs?  The answer may surprise you.  Here’s a similar table going back to1990 for all the major sports.   Here’s the summary.  Since 1990:

• 3 times the best Baseball Team won the World series
• 6 times the best Football Team won the Super Bowl
• 8 times the best Basketball Team won the NBA championship
• 5 times the best Hockey Team won the Stanley Cup

How’s that for parity?  I used to knock the NHL for the proclivity of #8 teams knocking off #1 seeds in the playoffs (something that’s only happened twice in the NBA).  The NHL is infamous for having teams “built for the playoffs” and it not really being a surprise when a team like last year’s Washington Capitals lose in the first round of the playoffs.  However, look at baseball.  Only three times in 20 years has the best team won the World Series.  This fact gives credence to Billy Beane’s comment that the playoffs are indeed a crapshoot and GMs should build towards making the playoffs and then crossing their fingers.

Anyway you slice it, the Giants earned this World Series victory by beating the best.  I would have personally loved to see a NY Yankees-Philadelphia series (as would have every TV executive at Fox) and it would have crowned a champion that truly was one of the two best teams this year in the regular season.  But this series was definitely entertaining in its own right and featured some great pitching (the topic of my next blog posting…)

A slight faltering at the tail end of the season leaves the Nats with the #6 overall pick in next year’s draft.  Here’s how the first round will go next year.

Pittsburgh was 5-6 games “ahead” for the #1 pick for most of the 2nd half.  Seattle’s historically bad offense locks them into the #2 overall pick.  Baltimore’s late season surge under Showalter cost them a couple spots but gives the fanbase hope for 2011.  Arizona’s unprecedented 2 top 7 picks (the 2nd is compensation for failing to sign Barret Loux after an MRI showed a more significant arm injury than anyone knew) should make for a great draft for them.  Houston nearly jumped into the mid-teens by having a scorching August but settled down into the #9 pick, just ahead of San Diego’s compensation pick for failing to sign Karsten Whitson (I believe he was diagnosed with diabetes and opted for college instead of going pro).

By “tying” Cleveland (Washington gets the better pick because of a worse 2009 record), we actually jumped the compensation pick of Arizona, which is good news.  There is sure to be some good talent in next year’s college pitcher rich draft at the #6 overall pick.  (Early draft reviews show possibly guys like Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, Matt Purke, or Taylor Jungmann at that spot). Plus, we may pick up another pick in the first round depending on the outcome of the Adam Dunn offseason (see a previous post here about Dunn’s current TypeB status).

Full Reverse standings are here at mlbtraderumors.com.

Washington’s recent 4 game winning streak, including 3 of 4 from Houston, has probably taken them out of the race for the #3 pick.  As it stands, we have the #7 overall pick, just behind Arizona’s compensation pick.  They now sit 3 games “behind” for the #6 pick and 3 games “ahead” for the #8 pick.

In the 11-14 spots are the high-payroll failures from the 2010 season; LA Dodgers, LA Angels and NY Mets (though the biggest payroll failure this year has to be the Chicago Cubs).

Hello all.

Two administrative things today.

1. I’ve tired of the spam comments that are popping up on the site, so i’ve changed the commenting behavior to force you to have to log in to comment.  Apologies but that’s the way it has to be.

2. I’ve started a new gig and haven’t really had time to post or update some of my tracking spreadsheets.  I’m working on some post-minor league season reviews by affiliate and should start posting those soon.

Thanks, todd

Or, as I’d like to call it, the Anthony Rendon 2011 sweepstakes (click here for his 2010 stats when he won the NCAA player of the year).

2011 draft orderUpdated 8/30/10

1: Pittsburgh   43-87   .331 8/30 a weekend sweep puts them 5 games “ahead” in the draft positioning.
2: Baltimore    48-83   .366
3. Seattle      51-79   .392
4. Arizona      52-79   .397 8/29 falls into 4th place w/ 2-game win streak
5. Cleveland    53-77   .408
6. Chi Cubs     55-76   .420
(6a will go to Arizona for failing to sign Barret Loux)
7. Kansas City  55-75   .423 8/29 jumps from 8th to 6th w/ 2 game losing streak
8. Washington   56-75   .427 8/30: falls to 8th with 3 wins in 4 versus StL
9. Houston      59-71   .454
(9a will go to San Diego for failing to sign Karsten Whitson)

Washington’s taking 3 of 4 versus the Cardinals has vaulted them from a tie for 6th into sole possession of 8th place.  Washington is turning into a victim of the late-season successes of there here-to-fore relatively awful starters Marquis and Lannan.  In Lannan’s last 5 starts he’s 4-1 with a 3.19 era and 1.129 whip.  In Marquis’s last two starts he’s 0-2 with a 1.46 era and 1.216 whip (unlucky loser both times really).

Updated 8/24/10.  Arizona falls into a tie for 3rd with Seattle.  Washington still in a tie with KC for 7th but are playing (and losing) to the 6th place team this week in a home series.  Oh, and the St Louis Cardinals are coming to town for a 4-game set that probably ends up with a home series loss.  5th draft pick here we come!

1: Pittsburgh 41-84
2: Baltimore 44-81
t3. Arizona 49-76
t3. Seattle 49-76
5. Cleveland 50-74
6. Chicago Cubs 52-74
7t. Kansas City 53-72
7t. Washington 53-72
9. Houston 55-69
10. Milwaukee 59-65