ARLINGTON, TX – OCTOBER 27: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers holds the commissioners trophy after defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 3-1 in Game Six to win the 2020 MLB World Series at Globe Life Field on Tuesday, October 27, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
The end of the world series brings the beginning of baseball’s off-season, and the Nats wasted no time officially declaring its free agents to be.
I’m tempted to write about some of the hot-button stories that led from Game 6, notably surrounding Blake Snell‘s ridiculous hook (reminiscent of the Greinke hook in game 7 of last year’s WS) and Justin Turner‘s returning to the field after testing positive for Covid-19. But others have covered it far better than me (both on Snell and on Turner).
As of this writing, the 40-man is as empty as I can ever remember, having shed 9 FAs yesterday and another 10 outrights between Oct 10th and Oct 15th. By my accounting (and per the Big Board)
Notably, a number of players who had options were also declared FAs yesterday, as discussed here. We talked previously about possibly considering options for some of these guys, but none were taken. Adam Eaton, Howie Kendrick, Anibal Sanchez and Eric Thames all declined.
As it stands now, the 40-man roster sits at just 28 players. Joe Ross will be the 29th once he’s restored. Technically its at just 25 players, as procedurally the team has not activated its three remaining 60-day DL guys (Strasburg, Castro, Romero).
Lots of work to be done this off-season and the first big decisions just passed by with little fan fare.
Do the Nats bring back this famous celebration couple? Photo via Brobible
Since we have no playoffs to discuss, we’re pivoting immediately into off-season mode.
The Nats procedurally on 9/28/20 activated all their 10-day DL players. They also procedurally recalled the last three remaining players from the 40-man alternative site for the purposes of off-season moves. Amazingly, they ended the season with 9 players on the 10-day DL and just one healthy player on the 40-man roster not already playing (Raudy Read).
Free Agents to-be are immediately declared FAs at 8am Central time the day after the World Series ends. The team doesn’t have to restore its 60-day DL players until 5 days after the World Series ends, which allows them to add them back after free agents are declared and after the team has a small exclusive window to negotiate. So, we have to wait for about a month to see the next dominos fall, but we can start to speculate now.
Based on my records, here’s how our roster will look in the off-season, which will drive the decisions to make. We’ll classify these players into 5 categories
Category 1: Players under a “veteran” contract for 2021 (7): Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Hudson, Harris, Gomes, Castro. Seven players but a huge payroll hit (per Cots, these 7 players count for $120M or so in cap space next year.
Category 2: Pre-Arbitration players under full team control (22): Voth, Fedde, Crowe, Finnegan, Harper, McGowin, Braymer, Espino, AWilliams (TJ aug 2020), Read, Garcia, Noll, Robles, Stevenson, Hernandez, Bacus, Rainey, Bourque, Kieboom, Sanchez, Romero, Barrera. That’s a ton of players on pre-arb deals, which is important since they will represent a huge chunk of the active roster in 2021. I think a few of these pre-arb guys are in discussion for “first 40-man guy to get DFA’d when the team needs room” territory (Noll, Williams, Sanchez) but for now, they’re all in play. Note: a couple of these guys were technically MLFA signings in 2020 so i’m not sure if they are now pre-arb or still FAs. Apologies if I got their status wrong).
Category 3: Arbitration-eligible players for 2021 (8). Here’s where we start discussions. Player by player:
Suero (A1); lock to tender
Turner (A3): lock to tender
Soto (A1): lock to tender. I saw something recently that seemed to indicate he may or may not be a Super-2 guy, but he was projecting to be Super-2 after last off-season so i’m assuming he’s Arb-eligible this year.
Taylor (A4); Nothing has really changed with Taylor; he struggled at the plate again but hit a few bombs, which drove his OPS+ figure up a bit from what you’d expect for someone who hit below .200. The change in Taylor in 2020 is that his defensive numbers COST him WAR this year instead of helped. Probably Small Sample Size driven, but Taylor’s bigger problem is that his direct competition as “4th outfielder” on this roster Andrew Stevenson just blew up in 2020, making Taylor an obvious non-tender candidate.
Guerra (A4); his contract status is odd; he has bounced back and forth on and off the roster and signed a combo major/minor FA deal this past off-season. But Cots lists him as arb-eligible, so i’m not entirely sure if he’s a FA or if he’s arb eligible. My guess is that the team cuts another deal with him and non-tenders him if he’s eligible then immediately re-signs him the next day.
Barrett (A3); another odd case; how much does sentimentality count? The team called up a slew of other prospects before recalling Barrett this year, he pitched in 2 games then hit the DL. It seems to me he’s a non-tender candidate and at age 32 could be facing one last shot at making a MLB roster next year.
Elias (A3); 2020 a lost season for Elias, who went onto the 60-day DL early and barely pitched in 2019 for this team as well (thanks to the idiotic decision in Aug 2019 to allow him to hit, which resulted in a leg injury with him running out a grounder in a meaningless at bat). The Nats didn’t give up a ton to acquire him (giving up two decent minor league arms in Taylor Guilbeau and Elvis Alvarado) so I can’t imagine them non-tendering him, but how do you do salary evaluation of a player who misses an entire year?
JRoss (A3); he opted out in 2020, and his absence was felt immediately when it became clear his 5th starter replacements could not cut it. I think you tender him and he goes back into the starter competition for 2021. Worst case he gets cut mid-way through spring training and the Nats escape with 1/6th of his salary.
Category 4: Players with Options for 2021 (5): here’s where we start having some tougher decisions.
Sanchez: $12M club option, $2M buyout: I’m not sure how you take this option if you’re the Nats after the season we just saw. Sanchez was lucky to post the numbers he did in 2019 (his FIP was more than a half a point higher than his ERA), and he bottomed out in 2020. Decline the option, pay the buyout.
Thames: $4M mutual option, $1M buyout. Thames posted just a 65 OPS+ playing primarily as a 1B/DH type. That’s just patently awful, considering how many options there were on the market for “non-mobile mid-30s slugger.” Decline the option, pay the buyout.
Holt: $5M club option, $750k buyout. He took a significant step back from his Boston numbers, which resulted in Milwaukee cutting bait on him a month into a 2year deal. Despite his positional flexibility (he played 6 positions in 20 games for the Nats) I don’t see how you guarantee $5M to a guy who didn’t “wow” you in his audition. Decline the option, pay the buyout.
Eaton: $10.5M club option, $1.5M buyout. Phew; what do you do here. His fourth straight year in offensive decline. He was awful defensively. But he’s only 31; does the team take the $10.5M option and roll the dice that 2020 was an anomoly? If they cut him, do they have a replacement minor leaguer that makes sense (not really no). So do they roll the dice that they can get comparable production on the FA market for the same price? How much does sentimentality factor in here? Clubhouse presence and managerial relationship? Again, he’s only 31, which is a lot different from 36 (see next). I think the team exercises the option.
Kendrick: $6.5M mutual option, $2.25M buyout. Word came out a few days ago that Kendrick was considering retirement until he got hurt. I’m not sure I buy that, not with a 6.5M option on the table and more gas left in the tank. Another sentimental pick here; a guy who can plug in multiple positions in a pinch and who now has the DH to settle into if need be. Also a factor here; much like in poker, if you’re into a hand already for the big blind, why not make a call for a little bit more? Declining the option only saves them $4M, and it may be worth the cost to keep a veteran presence around one more time. I mean, if Eaton is there, you gotta keep his buddy Howie right? Exercise the option.
Category 5: Unrestricted FAs (6). Now, there’s nothing the team can really do with these guys since they’re FAs. But we can talk about whether or not we think the team pursues them in the off-season:
Suzuki; do you re-sign a 37yr old catcher? He’s been amazingly consistent at the plate the last few years while splitting time pretty evenly with Gomes. Still sporting a decent OBP. Is he getting pushed out by rising minor league depth (hardly, unless you think Read or Barrera is an option in the majors in 2021). I might pursue a 1-yr deal.
Cabrera: reverted to his 2018-19 form at the plate, league average providing poor, slow, aging defense at multiple infield positions. I think you move on.
Harrison really showed a jolt for this team, but he’s a 2B on a team with a prospect seemingly installed there for the longer run.
Doolittle: tough one. Struggled last year, struggled this year. A huge part of the community, outspoken leader. Maybe bring him back on an incentive-laden deal?
Freeman (TJ Aug 2020); really bad timing on his TJ surgery, as he’s a FA and will be rehabbing on his own.
Zimmerman, the most difficult decision of all. The team was onboard with a $2M deal for 2020 before he opted out for completely understandable family reasons. 2020 was his age 35 season; I’d guarantee him a $2M incentive-laden deal to be a 1B/DH platoon with a lefty slugger for 2021 absolutely. When he’s healthy he can hit, and doing nothing but DHing will help keep him on the field. Its worth a flier for a guy who is either retiring to the Nats front office or playing in 2021.
If the team does exactly what I say here, what would be our needs heading into the off-season? First lets see how this would look from a roster perspective (not counting FAs):
Another starter. I’m just not sure you can go into 2021 with your 4th/5th starters being Ross, Voth, Fedde and Crowe. I’m not sure I trust what I saw from McGowin or Braymer. Espino has never really succeeded in the majors and seems like the definition of a 4-A guy. And Romero? Maybe he can step up now that he’s gotten his debut out of the way.
Reliever help: I see 5-6 mlb-quality relievers here, but we’d need like 12 on the 40-man roster.
Catcher; as discussed with Suzuki above
Infield: well, right now your starting infield in 2021 is Castro/Kieboom at 3rd, Turner at SS, Garcia/Castro at 2nd, Kendrick at 1st (if they exercise his option), with Noll and Sanchez in AAA or released. They probably need more depth here.
Outfield: If they exercise Eaton’s option, then little needs to be done. If they don’t, then they’ll need a starting corner OF.
In other words, they need help basically everywhere.
Man, it seems like its been forever since we’ve seen a Nats beat reporter do a mailbag. And unfortunately the one I found is behind the Athletic’s paywall, By Athletic Nats beat reporter Brittany Ghiroli. No worries though; you’ll get the gist.
Q: What are your reactions to the (Mike) Rizzo contract? A: It’s about damn time. I just do not understand why either Mike Rizzo or Davey Martinez entered this season w/o an extension. The only thing I can think is that both had had informal discussions with the ownership group that promised them extensions at a later time.
Brittany’s take: Finally. 3yr extension, with a big bump in pay from $4M/year on his previous deal. But she also notes how disrespectful this delay was to the rest of the front office staff, who live and die by Rizzo’s contract status. Hard to disagree.
Q: Have you heard about any extension talks with (Juan) Soto? A: I hope they have … but it seems unlikely. Juan Soto has already established himself as one of the league’s elite players, so there seems to be little incentive for him to sign away any flexibility. He got a “big” pre-arb raise, which frankly is still peanuts compared to his value, and he’s already guaranteed to be a Super-2 guy, meaning four arb years. If i’m the Nats maybe i’m doing what they did with Harper and Rendon; buy out the arb years with sizeable raises so they’re not arguing every off-season, see if they can get one post-arb FA year thrown in (he’s FA after 2024 season), and make it worthwhile to both sides.
Brittany notes that Soto’s agent is Scott Boras, so forget about an extension. She is unaware of any extension talk, but points out a couple of Braves deals that could serve as landmarks.
Q: Any details on whether the front office has moved on from competing this year to preparing for a stronger ’21 season? A: Well, we saw no trades this year, meaning zero attempts to shore up multiple areas of need on the current roster. But then again, that might have been a factor of the price tag and our own depleted farm system. I mean, would you have wanted to give up Cade Cavalli or Jackson Rutledge for a month of a #3 starter hitting free agency after the season? Hell no. Meanwhile on the field, the team has been frisky this week, but (as of this writing on 9/11/20) remain 5.5 games out of a wild card spot and still projected for either the #6 or #7 overall pick next July. Brittany notes the same thing: the lack of moves at the trade deadline tipped their hand.
Q: Any insight on moves Rizzo should consider in 2021 free agency? A: man, it exhausts me to even start considering this. But here’s 2 minutes on their FA outlook. Using COTS site, they are set to lose Eaton, Sanchez, Doolittle, Suzuki, Kendrick, Thames, Holt, Cabrera, Zimmerman and Freeman to FA (yes some of these guys have options but … right now its hard to see any of these options exercised).
So that means the team is in need of: 1-2 Starting pitchers, a corner OF, two veteran lefty relievers, a starting quality catcher, and a big chunk of their infield depth. Assuming they go young in 2021 the infield could be anchored by Kieboom, Turner and Garcia, so they’d be in the market for a 1B/DH platoon, plus a couple of utility guys who can move around. So, not a ton but also some work to do. the have $126M committed before arb raises of roughly $25M (could be more depending on how much Soto gets), so that leaves about $50M of FA room to work with. We can’t get a good SP and a solid catcher for that, but we should be able to get the edges covered.
Brittany repeats the same list of players, and says the priorities will be similar to what I put.
It was a busy Saturday for Nats GM Mike Rizzo. In quick succession we heard about three moves:
The team re-signs 2B/3B Asdrubal Cabrera, 1yr $2.5M.
The team signs 2B Starlin Castro to a 2yr/$12M deal
The team previously signed RHP David Hernandez sometime in Dec 2019 to a minor league deal (which was just announced on Baseball America)
Cabrera was awful for Texas last year and got outright released; he lit it up for Washington, mercifully taking over for the completely ineffective Brian Dozier and lighting it up for the team down the stretch (slash line for DC last year post-signing: .323/.404/.565). Cabrera played 3B for Texas but mostly 2B for DC; right now he’s your starting 3B opening day save any other move.
Castro clearly is the starting 2B; he moved there a few years ago, played it exclusively for several years but moved to 3B last season to make room for a prospect. He was reportedly telling teams in FA he was only interested in playing 2B … so we have our starting 2B. His signing seems to clarify what the team’s infield will be looking like come April. He has two straight years of right around league average OPS+, but in 2019 he spiked homers, hitting 22 of them on the year playing a lot of games in pitcher-friendly NL East stadiums.
Hernandez was a great middle reliever in 2018 for Cincinnati, but blew up last year and signs a MLFA deal in an attempt to get back to the majors. I like this as a low-risk/high reward move for a team always looking for the next 6th/7th inning RH reliever.
With these moves … as per the updated Big Board, your starting lineup come 4/1/20 looks like this (here’s a guess as to the lineup)
Eaton (RF)
Turner (SS)
Soto (LF)
Kendrick (1B)
Castro (2B)
Cabrera (3B)
Suzuki (C)
Robles (CF)
Pitcher
That’s … a big step back from what we showed offensively last year, obviously. The loss of Anthony Rendon in the middle of the order is pretty apparent.
Is this a playoff team?
—————-
Cabrera becomes the fourth 2019 team member/FA to re-sign with the team, joining Stephen Strasburg, Howie Kendrick and Yan Gomes. Pretty much the entire industry assumes Ryan Zimmerman is re-signing to be a bench bat as well. So a lot of the veteran crew that was credited with helping the team win in October is now back.
Is this a good thing?
The oldest team in the majors last year has now resigned FAs who will be playing in their
age 34 year (Cabrera)
32 (Gomes)
31 (Strasburg) and
36 (Kendrick).
They join other presumed starters and key relievers north of 30 in :
Kurt Suzuki (2020 will be his age 36 year)
Max Scherzer (35),
Anibal Sanchez (36)
Adam Eaton (31)
Sean Doolittle (33)
Hunter Strickland and Roenis Elias (both 31)
Wil Harris (35)
Starlin Castro (30).
Um. That’s a lot guys on the wrong side of 30. And a lot of assumptions that the production like we got out of Cabrera (143 OPS+) continues into 2020 if he’s indeed the starting 3B.
———————————-
Oh, ps: all appropriate tabs in the Big Board are now updated for these transactions. We’re now at 36/40 on the 40-man roster. New payroll estimate is $185,452,709, leaving us $22,547,291 under the cap for 2020. For all of you still holding out hope for Josh Donaldson … you should stop. He’s soliciting 4yr deals north of $100M; the numbers don’t add up. If this team has $22M and change left and are not going over, then we’re out of the Donaldson mix.
I’m not sure what’s next. Does the team pursue a trade for a 3B? Clearly they don’t want to give up Victor Robles in a Kris Bryant trade (and I don’t blame them, whether or not they have one year or two of his services). Maybe we’re going to see some Rizzo trade magic coming soon.
The new Nats #1 all -time game. Photo via nytimes.com
In the wake of the 2019 World Series run, I thought (while its fresh in everyone’s mind) it’d be a fun one to try to rank all the Nats post-season games.
I put in my top 10, then put in all the other candidates in chronological order. For years I had a running list that conflated regular season exploits and post-season glory; now there’s so many games to consider just from 2019 that I’ve separated them in my (future) larger list of Best and Worst games. As it turns out, I’ve got 8 of our top 10 post-season games now being from the 2019 run.
Feel free to discuss and tell me i’m wrong. Nicely please 🙂
Greatest Nats Post Season Games:
October 30th, 2019: WS Game 7 win. Scherzer throws 5 heroic innings, the Nats beat Greinke with a Rendon homer and a Kendrick homer to seal it, then run away to take Game 7.
October 9th, 2019: NLDS Game 5: Howie Kendrick caps a come-from-behind win with a grand slam in the 10th to exorcise the Nats playoff daemons and seal their first ever playoff series win, 7-3 over the Dodgers.
October 29th 2019: WS Game 6 win; Strasburg masterpiece, Turner controversy at first, Rendon homer exploits, another elimination game rally. This game had it all.
October 11th, 2012: NLDS Game 4: Jayson Werthwalk-off homer in an epic battle against Lance Lynn, hitting the 13th pitch of the at-bat (!!) on a line-drive into the seats. Ironic that what I think is the most special game in Nats franchise history occurred the day before what I consider to be the worst game in franchise history. (note; thanks to my former coworker Eric Hay for correcting me on my pitch count memory here in the comments).
October 1st, 2019: come-from-behind Wild Card win over Milwaukee on Juan Soto‘s bases-clearing single in the 8th against super reliever Josh Hader. First ever franchise “win-or-go-home” victory.
October 11th, 2019: NLCS Game 1: Anibal Sanchez keeps a no-hitter into the 8th and the team blanks St. Louis to steal game one on the road and set the tone for what became a 4-0 sweep.
October 9th, 2016: NLDS Game 2 comeback win over the Dodgers: after dropping the first game in a missed opportunity, the Nats fell behind quickly 2-0 and the crowd was quiet, worried and lethargic. That all ended when the team put some runners on base for Jose Lobaton, who clubbed a 3-run homer into a stiff wind coming in from left; the crowd exploded, the team relaxed and they tacked on a couple of runs later for a 5-2 win.
October 12th, 2019: NLCS Game 2: Scherzer throws seven innings of one hit dominant ball to power the Nats to the win and the surprising two game sweep on the road.
October 22nd, 2019: WS Game 1: The offense surprisingly gets to Astros ace Gerritt Cole while Scherzer holds on for the shock game 1 win in Houston.
October 23rd, 2019: WS Game 2: The Nats explode on Astros pitching for 12 runs to shock the baseball world and take a 2-0 series lead.
I’m putting the 2019 WC winner just below the Werth homer. I realize this is not a popular take; I like the way that frequent commenter MarkL put it in a discussion just after the WC game: “[the WC winner] excitement level is #2 after the Werth game but #1 in importance.” I agree with that sentiment. If the Soto hit had been a walk-off we wouldn’t be having this argument; it’d easily be #1. But its ok for a non-clinching game to be considered great; consider that most pundits put Game 6 of the 1975 World Series (aka the “Fisk homer”) as the greatest game of the last 50 years…. and it was won by a team that went out the next day and lost game 7. It doesn’t matter in the end, since the Kendrick homer trumped them both, and then the WS winner trumped all.
Post season honorable mentions (in chronological order):
October 7th, 2012: NLDS Game 1: 2-run rally in the 8th on Tyler Moore‘s flair to beat the Cardinals in St. Louis in the first ever playoff game for the team. In theory it should have completely set up the Nats to cruise through the series. Didn’t quite happen that way (see worst games ever).
October 6th, 2014: NLDS Game 2: Beating Madison Bumgarner in the 2014 NLDS; our only 2014 post-season win and the only time Bumgarner lost that post-season.
October 10th, 2016: NLDS Game 3, a win in Los Angeles 8-3 to grab back home field advantage and put themselves on the brink of advancing.
October 7th, 2017: NLDS Game 2: Behind homers from Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman, the Nats dump 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th on the Cubs to turn what was looking like a 2-0 series deficit into a 6-3 victory.
October 11th, 2017: NLDS Game 4: Stephen Strasburg shakes off illness and pitches the game of his life, punching out 12 in 7 scoreless innings in an elimination NLDS game against Chicago. Michael Taylor squeaks out a grand-slam in the 8th to turn a 1-0 nail-biter into a 5-0 win to force a decisive game 5 back home.
October 4th, 2019: NLDS Game 2: Nats jump on Clayton Kershaw early, Strasburg shuts down the Dodgers to steal a game on the road
October 14th, 2019: NLCS Game 3: Nats score four in the 3rd to set the tone and run away in Game 3, nearly guaranteeing the series win behind another dominant Strasburg performance.
October 15th, 2019: NLCS Game 4: A shocking 7 run first was all the team needed to complete the sweep at home behind a rocking crowd and move onto the World Series.
October 8th, 2019: NLDS Game 4: Scherzer dominates the Dodgers in a NLDS win-or-go-home Game 4 at Nats park, Zimmerman blasts a 3-run homer to put the team ahead for good, and the Nats push the series back to LA for Game 5.
HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 23: Kurt Suzuki #28 of the Washington Nationals hits a solo home run against the Houston Astros during the seventh inning in Game Two of the 2019 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 23, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Well, I spent most of Wednesday night’s game on pins and needles, watching Stephen Strasburg wiggle out of one jam after another after an elating-then-deflating first inning, then cheering for the shock Kurt Suzuki homer and then standing in awe as the game got away from Houston completely, resulting in a blow-out win.
(I even found myself making a “get off my lawn comment” when Martin Maldonado hit the 9th inning homer to “cut” the lead to 12-3 … and the Houston stadium dimmed the lights and blew the air horn and ran their stupid train as if it was the greatest home run ever hit in franchise history … um, guys? Time and Place. Your team was 5 minutes from getting embarassingly swept on home soil as more than a 2-1 WS favorite … maybe a good time to not strobe the damn stadium lights like you’re in a Vegas club).
Anyway. I thought the Nats could get to Verlander in game 2 in my preview to get a split in Houston. Never in my wildest dream would I think we’d sweep games on Houston’s soil to return home with a 2-0 lead. Just amazing.
Davey Martinez was given a free pass to save his critical bullpen arms, get other guys work, get Tanner Rainey back on track, not burn any starter innings … i mean, you just couldn’t ask for a better game.
Now what? Well, I initially thought the three games in DC would go like this:
Greinke beats Corbin
Sanchez beats bullpen
Scherzer beats Cole.
Because Patrick Corbin threw in game 1, Martinez swapped spots and put Anibal Sanchez out in game 3. So what does this mean? Well… I still think Sanchez can get the win here. Check out his post-season stats for his career: with the exception of one bad beating in 2012, he’s been pretty darn good. 7 quality starts in 9 post-season starts, and of course he’s been basically unhittable in 2019. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance … but what else can we go on? I like Sanchez in this game, and I like Zack Greinke (10 runs allowed in 14 post season IP so far in 2019) to get hit.
Meanwhile; Its not like Houston is hitting badly … they’re slashing .257/.321/.432 for the first two games against two of the best starters in the game. Five of their first Six hitters have OPS figures in the .900 to 1.000 range or higher so far for this series. They’re just not quite putting the hits together in the right sequence, and the 7-8-9 hitters are basically automatic outs so far. The middle of this order is daunting, really.
Can’t wait to see the energy in the stadium tonight. Wish I could be there. go nats!
Can’t even buy a beer; but he’s already a post-season star. Photo via NYpost
So, in my preview, I thought that the Nats really could “steal” one of the two games in Houston. I never thought they’d steal game 1 by getting to Gerrit Cole. But they did; putting more runs on him (5) in just a handful of innings than he’d given up in 22+ across three previous post season starts. So much for narrative. And I don’t think he pitched “badly” per se; i think the Nats just hit the ball well and made him pay for upper-zone fastball misses like other teams have not.
Hand it to this team; this was a complete team effort to win. Max Scherzer just didn’t look sharp on the night, burning through nearly 110 pitches in 5 innings. He didn’t seem like he had any command of his off-speed stuff, and Houston is just too good of a hitting team to not make you pay. Patrick Corbin worked his way through his mid-start relief inning (notably; does this push his start to game 4 instead of game 3? Not a bad idea honestly if you think Anibal Sanchez is the hotter hand to take possibly two post-season starts), Daniel Hudson bailed out the shaky outing from Tanner Rainey, and Sean Doolittle kept it together to close it out. Great pitcher management on the night; Davey Martinez did not hesitate to yank Rainey and keep the inning from getting out of hand.
Then there’s the hitting: up and down the order, the Nats made it happen. Credit to Ryan Zimmerman for putting the team back into the game, of course credit to “working his way towards a post-season MVP award” Juan Soto for having a game of the ages on the biggest possible stage. But up and down the order, this team got timely hits.
I thought the Nats might be able to get to Verlander in game 2; can they possibly take two games on foreign soil again?
One other point: one through nine, this Astros lineup is stacked (well, at least 1-7). Geeze. All night i’m chewing nails watching them try to get through this order. Giving up “only” four runs seemed like an accomplishment; the Nats are going to have to hit this series moreso than I thought just to keep up.
Corbin is the key to this series. Photo via Arizona republic
The 2019 World Series is here. And boy does it look like its going to be a heck of a pitching duel. Thanks to the Astros finishing off the Yankees in 6 games, they (like our Nats) are able to perfectly setup their rotation as they wish. Which means … wow we’re going to have some pitching duels.
Here’s a preview of the pitching matchups, with my predictions game by game.
Game 1; 10/22/19: Was@Hou: Max Scherzer vs Gerrit Cole: Cole is either finishing 1st or 2nd in AL Cy Young voting and has been unhittable this post season (3 starts, 22 2/3rds innings, 10 hits, 8 walks, just ONE earned run, 32 Ks). So its going to be a tall task to get to him in Game 1. Scherzer is Big Game Max: he got hit a bit in the WC game, but his three NLCS and NLDS appearances are pretty solid: 15 innings and one earned run vs the Dodgers and Cardinals, including a 1-hit 7 inning domination of St. Louis in Game 2 to really put the series out of reach. Prediction? I think Cole continues his hot streak and out-duels Scherzer in a 1-0 or a 2-1 type game.
Game 2: 10/23/19: Was@Hou: Stephen Strasburg vs Justin Verlander: Verlander likely wins the Cy Young (if it isn’t Cole) thanks to an amazing age 36 season … but he’s been quite hittable this post-season. He’s got 4 starts, has given up 10 runs in 23 innings. Strasburg has not been hittable, this off-season or any other; he continues to put up Sandy Koufax esque post-season numbers; he got hit in LA but held on to keep the team in the game, then blew away St. Louis. I like Strasburg here and think the Nats can sneak a win in game 2.
Game 3: 10/25/19: Hou@Wash: Zack Greinke vs Patrick Corbin: i wonder what Arizona fans are thinking when they watch this game. Greinke might be the best #3 starter in the game, or maybe Corbin is. Greinke got knocked out by Tampa in the NLDS, and wasn’t lights out or anything in the NLDS either; the Nats can score runs against him. Corbin has also been hit or miss this post-season, with an ugly 7+ ERA despite striking out 26 in 13 innings. The Astros hit the ball, irrespective of lefty or righty, so this game might be one where the bullpens of both teams get exposed a bit. Can Corbin make it happen? One good thing going for him; he’s significantly better at home vs on the road (2.40 ERA versus 4.18 ERA away). Of course … Greinke shows reverse H/A splits himself, and is no stranger to playing the Nats (he dominated the Nats in June, shutting them down in our park to the tune of 7ip, 2h). I think Astros can get back home-field advantage here.
Game 4: 10/26/19: Hou@Wash: Bullpen vs Anibal Sanchez: Game 4 could be interesting; the Astros don’t really have a 4th starter they trust; they’ve gotten to this point riding their big 3 starters and getting by with openers and bullpen games otherwise. So this could be former Nat Brad Peacock or perhaps Wade Miley, who seemed to be their 4th starter all season but who didn’t even appear in the ALCS. Can Sanchez do what he did again against St. Louis? Can a bullpen game shutdown the Nats? I like the Nats here to get a solid start and to get at the slightly-hittable Houston bullpen.
Game 5: 10/27/19: Cole vs Scherzer: You think big-game Max is losing a home start? I don’t think so. The Nats get to Cole and take a 3-2 series lead heading back to Houston.
Game 6: 10/29/19: Verlander vs Strasburg: Verlander recovers and pitches the game of his life to push the series to Game 7.
Game 7: 10/30/19: Corbin vs Greinke: Nats get to Greinke again, Corbin gets hit … game turns into a bullpen game … Nats pull another late-inning come back and win in 7.
Sound good?
One thing I did want to point out. There’s a very solid sportswriter narrative out there that teams can get “cold” with long layoffs like the Nats have had. And there’s some SSS proof that indeed teams who sweep have a struggle in the series. Teams are just 1 for 9 in the World Series after sweeping the LCS in four games since 1985 (when the LCS was expanded to 7 games). See https://sports.yahoo.com/tbs-crew-explains-nationals-avoid-044927265.html (thanks Luke Erickson for the link, which you can also find on ESPN and other places). This is obviously worrisome for the Nats, who have taken some steps to stay hot. On the one hand, I think a veteran team will benefit from the longer layoff to rest muscles and get bodies ready to go. I think Victor Robles will cherish the time to let his leg heal a bit. And of course, the rest lets all the starters (most of whom were pulling double duty starting and relieving) to rest up and get into their regular schedules. On the other hand …. 1 for 9. And they’re going against a 107-win team.
One other thing worth pointing out: the four games in the AL gives the Nats a unique opportunity to finally be able to play their best defensive roster and stick MVP Howie Kendrick in the DH spot. I like having Asdrubal Cabrera in the lineup with his switch-hitting bat and veteran approach and his better-than-Kendrick defense. That’s huge for this team.
Corbin did not like pitching in relief. Photo via Arizona republic
The Nats had been getting lucky using Starters as middle relievers for years in the playoffs … and last night finally their luck caught up with them.
Here’s a history (dating to our first playoff series in 2012) of using starters as middle relievers on their “throw days:”
2012 NLDS Game 4: Jordan Zimmermann pitches the 7th, strikes out the side.
2012 NLDS Game 5: Edwin Jackson pitches 1 inning, throws just 12 of 23 pitches for strikes, walks 2, gives up a hit and was lucky to escape only giving up 1 run.
2017 NLDS Game 5: Max Scherzer throws 1 inning, gives up 3 hits and a walk, gives up 4 runs (2 earned) to blow the lead in the deciding game.
2019 Wild Card: Stephen Strasburg throws 3 shutout innings to bridge the gap between Scherzer and Daniel Hudson.
2019 NLDS Game 2: Scherzer strikes out the side in one inning of relief of Strasburg
2019 NLDS Game 3: Patrick Corbin falls apart, give sup 6 runs in 2/3rds of an inning on 4 hits and 2 walks.
So, not exactly a proven strategy time and time again. Its hit or miss really. And, frankly, I might exclude the Strasburg effort because it was always set to be a multiple-inning effort; the rest of these appearances all fell into the “throw one max effort inning on my starter’s in-between starts throw day” type outing.
This post may seem like hindsight is 20/20 criticism of the strategy … but its pretty easy to ask this simple question: if this is such a great strategy, then why don’t we see it done in the regular season? I mean, we know the answer really (you don’t want to tax your starters and just add on useless middle relief innings; that’s what relievers are for) … but that’s also my point: this is what relievers are for. You’ve got 8 guys in the frigging bullpen for the sole purpose of getting past the end of the night … but we can’t trust a single one of them now? Is this now when the chickens come home to roost for the fact that Mike Rizzo cannot build a bullpen? Is this the end result for a team that’s literally traded away 20 starting pitching prospects in the past few years, any one of whom could have been a home-grown relief alternative?
It looks amazing when Scherzer blows everyone away … but then it looks foolish when he coughs up 4 runs in a series decider.
So now we’re going into Game 4 … and I’ll bet dollars Davey Martinez is planning on throwing Strasburg in the 7th again (but I sure hope not if he’s going in game 5).
I think my bigger criticism of the strategy last night was the early yanking of Anibal Sanchez. He left the game on 87 pitches, having struck out 9 through 5, and given up one run on 4 hits and 2 walks (both of which were in the first inning). I realize he’s facing 4-5-6 for the third time … but this is the same guy who retired 20 straight Dodgers earlier this year. If he gets through 4-5-6 then he’s got the bottom of the order in the 7th and you go to the bullpen then. Why pull him? I think that’s the “over managing” that irritates me most. Its the same over managing that led to Zimmermann getting pulled at 8 2/3rds in the playoffs (and the Nats losing). Different managers, same issue.
Look, at the end of the day, maybe it was inevitable that the potent Dodgers lineup blasted its way to a 10 run outing. But the Nats had the early lead and had an effective starter on the mound. I just don’t like deviating from whats working until you have to.
I like our chances in Game 4 behind an amped-up Scherzer … but who likes Corbin on the bump in game 5 now? Have the Dodgers figured him out? It sure seems like it. His MO seems to be to throw 91 on the black, then bounce sliders to get you to chase; well if you don’t swing at balls that bounce in the dirt … you have a good shot of walking, as we’ve now seen displayed pretty frequently in the post-season.
I’m now hearing rumors of no Corbin game 5; instead Strasburg. Uh, sign me up! 28 post season innings and 2 earned runs. Yeah; throw that guy. but we have to get there first.
The Nats used two starters to get to this point; how much will it hamper their efforts to supplant the class of the NL this year? Maybe not too much, if we can get Strasburg on short rest to pitch Game 2. Read on.
Game 1: Thurs 10/3/19 5:37pm EST in LA: Patrick Corbin vs Walker Buehler (officially announced)
Game 2: Fri 10/4/19: 5:37pm EST in LA: likely Stephen Strasburg vs (likely) Clayton Kershaw
Game 3: Sun 10/6/19 time tbd in DC: Max Scherzer vs (likely) Hyung-Jin Ryu
Game 4: Mon 10/7/19 time tbd in DC (if necessary): likely Anibal Sanchez vs (likely) Rich Hill/Kenta Maeda/bullpen game
Game 5: Wed 10/9/19 time tbd in LA (if necessary): Corbin vs Buehler rematch.
I just don’t think Scherzer can come back on 2 days rest to start a game on Friday, but as noted Strasburg only threw 34 pitches in the WC game and seems like he can get the start on Friday with perhaps a short leash/pitch count. This means Scherzer on full regular rest for the Sunday home game (that he’ll be up for, for sure) and then at Sanchez for game 4. That should get the series back to LA and line up a possible game 5 with probably the best possible guy on the hill for that game (lefty Corbin).
Meanwhile the Dodgers are going with the kid Buehler instead of Kershaw; two years ago it was Kershaw that killed the Nats. But the last time the Nats saw Buehler they bombed him. The Dodger’s 4th starter is a question mark; Hill is coming off injury and threw just a handful of innings in September but he’s always been solid against the Nats. If they have to go Maeda or their 5th starter Ross Stripling its not like its a huge step down in performance.
—-
Season head to head: LA beat DC 4 out of 7; they split four games in LA in May interestingly, when the team was nearly at its nadir, then LA took two of three in DC in mid July when the team had turned it around.
Here’s a quick summary of our pitchers versus LA this season. First in our 4-game set in LA:
Patrick Corbin; beat Rich Hill in LA 6-0 and pitched beautifully; 7ip, 3hits, 0 runs.
Anibal Sanchez: lost to Kenta Maeda in LA; gave up 6 hits, walked 2 more and got yanked in the 5th
Max Scherzer beat LA giving up 2 runs in 7 innings, but Walker Buehler was better and the team only won b/c we got to LA’s bullpen
Stephen Strasburg gave up 2 in 6 but Hyung-Jin Ryu gave up one hit through 8 to beat the Nats.
then, in DC in July:
Sanchez pitched one of the best games of his season giving up 1 run on 3 hits to match Ryu’s similar output, then the Dodgers got to the bullpen for the win (stop me if you’ve heard that before)
Kershaw threw a QS and the Nats tried the “opener” for the only time on the year (starting Matt Grace with some success) before Joe Ross blew up and got the loss
Strasburg was brilliant, giving up 1 run on 2 hits through 7 and the Nats beat Buehler to avoid the sweep.
So. what can we glean from this?
Our lefties have been pretty good against the Dodgers and Corbin may have some success.
As a team, the Dodgers are much better against RHs versus LHs … but they’re still pretty good against both.
Sanchez was more than adequate in his two LA starts.
Scherzer and Strasburg should be able to keep the team in games.
LA really doesn’t like hitting against either Strasburg or Corbin, and neither of them are the Nats Ace.
I gotta admit, i’m liking our chances here. This is where having a big-3 of pitching aces matters; the Dodgers are going to have to win more two starts being made by Corbin, Strasburg and Scherzer, three guys who are all likely getting Cy Young votes this year. I expect a bunch of low-scoring games with the Nats hoping to god their patchwork bullpen keeps it together.
Notable that the closer in the WC game wasn’t Sean Doolittle? Or was that playing matchups with the Brewers? Something to watch for.
