Nationals Arm Race

A slight faltering at the tail end of the season leaves the Nats with the #6 overall pick in next year’s draft.  Here’s how the first round will go next year.

Pittsburgh was 5-6 games “ahead” for the #1 pick for most of the 2nd half.  Seattle’s historically bad offense locks them into the #2 overall pick.  Baltimore’s late season surge under Showalter cost them a couple spots but gives the fanbase hope for 2011.  Arizona’s unprecedented 2 top 7 picks (the 2nd is compensation for failing to sign Barret Loux after an MRI showed a more significant arm injury than anyone knew) should make for a great draft for them.  Houston nearly jumped into the mid-teens by having a scorching August but settled down into the #9 pick, just ahead of San Diego’s compensation pick for failing to sign Karsten Whitson (I believe he was diagnosed with diabetes and opted for college instead of going pro).

By “tying” Cleveland (Washington gets the better pick because of a worse 2009 record), we actually jumped the compensation pick of Arizona, which is good news.  There is sure to be some good talent in next year’s college pitcher rich draft at the #6 overall pick.  (Early draft reviews show possibly guys like Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, Matt Purke, or Taylor Jungmann at that spot). Plus, we may pick up another pick in the first round depending on the outcome of the Adam Dunn offseason (see a previous post here about Dunn’s current TypeB status).

Full Reverse standings are here at mlbtraderumors.com.

Or, as I’d like to call it, the Anthony Rendon 2011 sweepstakes (click here for his 2010 stats when he won the NCAA player of the year).

2011 draft orderUpdated 8/30/10

1: Pittsburgh   43-87   .331 8/30 a weekend sweep puts them 5 games “ahead” in the draft positioning.
2: Baltimore    48-83   .366
3. Seattle      51-79   .392
4. Arizona      52-79   .397 8/29 falls into 4th place w/ 2-game win streak
5. Cleveland    53-77   .408
6. Chi Cubs     55-76   .420
(6a will go to Arizona for failing to sign Barret Loux)
7. Kansas City  55-75   .423 8/29 jumps from 8th to 6th w/ 2 game losing streak
8. Washington   56-75   .427 8/30: falls to 8th with 3 wins in 4 versus StL
9. Houston      59-71   .454
(9a will go to San Diego for failing to sign Karsten Whitson)

Washington’s taking 3 of 4 versus the Cardinals has vaulted them from a tie for 6th into sole possession of 8th place.  Washington is turning into a victim of the late-season successes of there here-to-fore relatively awful starters Marquis and Lannan.  In Lannan’s last 5 starts he’s 4-1 with a 3.19 era and 1.129 whip.  In Marquis’s last two starts he’s 0-2 with a 1.46 era and 1.216 whip (unlucky loser both times really).

Hey there happy nats fans!

A tough loss last night (witnessed by our friend droopy) puts the nats now into a Tie for 7th overall draft pick next year!

And, with a tough 3-game away series coming up in Philadelphia (where we face Halladay, Kendrick and then Oswalt) we might be creeping up further still.  My goal is the #3 spot (we’re only 4.5 games behind Arizona for that).  Baltimore and Pittsburgh flipped spots at the top of the board by virtue of a 2 game swing recently.  It’ll be hard to catch them.

Current 2011 draft order

Updated 8/19/10

1: Pittsburgh 40-80
2: Baltimore 42-79
3. Arizona 47-74
4. Seattle 48-73
5. Cleveland 49-71
6. Chicaco Cubs 50-71
(6a will go to Arizona for failing to sign Barret Loux)
7t. Kansas City 51-69
7t. Washington 51-69
9. Houston 52-67
(9a will go to San Diego for failing to sign karsten Whitson)

After Houston, there’s a 5 game gap to a cluster of teams like Milwaukee, Oakland, Detroit and Florida that probably will stay.  So the top 9 are worth tracking.

How about Arizona?  Probably looking at the #3 and #7th picks next year, in a pretty deep draft.