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In the wake of several posts I’ve seen on the topic of Qualifying Offers (one long-winded piece from the long-winded windbag Murray Chass here, accusing the owners of collusion in the cases of Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales instead of just understanding the state of the game, another from the more reasonable Jayson Stark here, talking about some potential fixes, and their respective agent Scott Boras whining about anonymous executive quotes in an ESPN article here), I thought I’d do some quantitiative-summary analysis of the Q.O. so far.

I think its fairly inarguable to state that the system isn’t really working how the players envisioned; especially as two decent FAs still sit un-signed. Clearly the players union did not realize just how much teams are valuing draft picks, to the point where they’d rather keep a mid-first rounder than sign a decent middle-aged free agent. I also believe that several of the players this past off-season got *really* bad advice on the state of the market for their services, and wholy deserve their fates. Baseball is changing; we’re seeing metrics highlighting the value of defense, we’re seeing positional flexibility win out over inflexibility, and we’re seeing teams go with youth over veterans even when the cost difference is rather negligible. That middle-aged, defensively challenged free agents (especially Morales) didn’t see this is entirely on them. The situation is even worse for players of advancing years, who are not even getting contract offers after decent seasons and are being forced into early retirement in some cases.

Here’s part of a spreadsheet I put together, analyzing the eight guys who were faced with Q.O. decisions after the 2012 season:

Year	Player	Old Team	New Team	Draft Pick Forfeited	Signing Date	Subsequent contract (w/o options)	Money up/down per AAV	Q.O. Screw the player?
2012	Josh Hamilton	TEX	LAA	1-22	12/13/2012	5yrs/$125M	11.7	No
2012	Michael Bourn	ATL	CLE	2sup-69	2/11/2013	4yrs/$48M	-1.3	Sort of
2012	Kyle Lohse	STL	MIL	1-17	3/25/2013	3yrs/$33M	-2.3	Yes
2012	Adam LaRoche	WAS	WAS	none	1/16/2012	2/$24	-1.3	Yes
2012	B.J. Upton	TB	ATL	1-28	11/28/2012	5/$75.25M	1.95	No
2012	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	NYY	none	11/20/2012	1yr/$15M	1.7	No
2012	Rafael Soriano	NYY	WAS	1-29	1/8/2013	2yr/$28M (lots deferred)	0.7	Sort of
2012	Nick Swisher	NYY	CLE	2-43	12/23/2012	4yr/$56M	0.7	No

Arguably, 3 of the 8 players in question were never going to be affected by the Q.O. (Hamilton and Upton because of the known long-term deals they were going to get, and Kuroda for being nearly guaranteed to return to the Yankees). So, by my way of thinking 4 of the remaining 5 players in the 2012 FA class had their earnings either curtailed or affected by the presence of the Q.O.:

Michael Bourn got a longer deal with more guaranteed money, but he got less in AAV than the Q.O. he turned down, so perhaps my view is arguable that he was affected.
Rafael Soriano languished on the FA market until the Nats suprisingly signed him; his AAV in “real” dollars was significantly less in its estimate per year than the Q.O. he turned down (most estimates i’ve seen are at $11M/year with all the deferred money in his deal). I hope Soriano keeps sending his agent Xmas cards; clearly Boras pulled a rabbit out of a hat to get him signed here.
Adam LaRoche saw very little interest in his services and returned to the Nats on a discounted deal; meanwhile players with comparable skills but without compensation issues earned more years and more dollars. Shane Victorino; 3yrs/$39M as an example.
Kyle Lohse probably suffered the worst fate; he didn’t sign until a week before the season and for more than a 15% discount per year. Meanwhile lesser pitcher Edwin Jackson got 4yrs/$52M by way of comparison, without a Q.O. attached to him.

Now here’s the same information for the thirteen players who dealt with (or who are dealing with) the issue after the 2013 season:

Year	Player	Old Team	New Team	Draft Pick Forfeited	Signing Date	Subsequent contract (w/o options)	Money up/down per AAV	Q.O. Screw the player?
2013	Carlos Beltran	STL	NYY	1sup-29	12/??/2013	3yrs/$45M	0.9	No
2013	Robinson Cano	NYY	SEA	2-47	12/12/2013	10yrs/$240M	9.9	No
2013	Shin-Soo Choo	CIN	TEX	1-22	12/??/2013	7yrs/$130M	4.47	No
2013	Nelson Cruz	TEX	BAL	2-56	2/22/2014	1yr/$8M	-6.1	Yes
2013	Stephen Drew	BOS	unsigned	??	unsigned	unsigned		Yes
2013	Jacoby Ellsbury	BOS	NYY	1sup-30	12/13/2013	7yrs/$153M	7.76	No
2013	Curtis Granderson	NYY	NYM	2-51	12/??/13	4yrs/$60M	0.9	No
2013	Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	BAL	1-17	2/19/2014	4yrs/$50M	-1.6	Yes
2013	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	NYY	none	12/6/2013	1yr/$16M	1.9	No
2013	Brian McCann	ATL	NYY	1-18	12/3/2013	5yrs/$85M	2.9	No
2013	Kendrys Morales	SEA	unsigned	??	unsigned	unsigned		Yes
2013	Mike Napoli	BOS	BOS	none	12/12/2013	2yrs/$32M	1.9	No
2013	Ervin Santana	KC	ATL	1-29	3/12/2014	1yr/$14.1M	0	Yes

Similarly to 2012, there were several FAs in this class for whom the Q.O. meant nothing: Cano, Choo, Ellsbury, McCann and Kuroda. So, by my way of thinking 5 of the remaining 8 players had their contracts impacted … but two in a much more visible way:

Drew and Morales remain unsigned to this point … and its hard to envision a scenario right now where any team would sign these players until after the Rule 4 draft in early June. Why give up a draft pick at this point? On the bright side for both players, there may be a veritable bidding war for their services after the draft, and they could get decent contracts which have (by rule) no further draft pick compensation issues.
Nelson Cruz had to take a $6M pay-cut due to his not taking the Q.O., a serious miscalculation of his market by him and his agent.
You may argue whether or not Ubaldo Jimenez really got screwed here, since he got $50M guaranteed in a four year deal. But his AAV is a good 10% less than the Q.O. that he spurned form Cleveland.
You can also argue about Ervin Santana, who signed for *exactly* the Q.O. amount once Atlanta lost most of their rotation for the year. I still say he was impacted because of the amount of time it took and his subsequent service time loss to start the season.

If i’m a future veteran FA … i’d be rather worried.

So, what’s the fix? Some say that this situation will naturally just take care of itself; next off-season maybe some players will finally take the Q.O. (remember; we’ve yet to have a single player take the offer), which in turn should make some teams wary of offering them in subsequent years. But by the time this situation naturally plays itself out, it’ll be time for the next bargaining session.

I think the MLBPA needs to (in the next bargaining session) cut the cord on the link between draft picks and free agent compensation once and for all. The entire reason draft pick compensation was invented was to “help” the little guys who lost free agents to the big teams. But look at the list of the teams who are generally offering Q.O.’s to players right now: 6 of the 21 total offer’d players were from the Yankees, another 3 from Boston. Those aren’t exactly teams “in need” of being given more picks in the draft. In fact, of the 21 players who have gone through this system, by my count just THREE played for a team that I’d qualify as a “small market” (Upton from Tampa Bay, Jimenez from Cleveland and Santana from Kansas City). Every other player plays for either a major market or a successful team in a mid-sized market. How is this system “working” as per its original intent, at all??

Maybe the right way of doing things is to punish the big teams for signing FAs … but don’t allow them to “game” the system by subsequently gaining more picks back. The Yankees signed four Q.O. affected free agents this past off-season … but only really lost one draft pick thanks to them having offered up and received their own compensatory picks for the players they knew they were going to lose anyway. Why aren’t the Yankees being forced to lose their first four ROUNDS of draft picks? If you’re in the top 10 in payroll, you only can lose in the draft pick compensation game, not win.

Footnote: Yes I acknowledge that, “in the grand scheme of things” it is really difficult to feel sorrow for a player for “only” earning $8M/year when he could have signed for $14.1M. And its pretty hard to feel empathy for someone who feels slighted because he “only” got a 1-year 8 figure deal. In some ways the money figures we talk about remind me of the infamous quote from NBA player Latrell Sprewell, who turned down a contract offer of $21M on the grounds that he “needed to be able to feed his family.” For the sake of this post, lets dispense with the typical comments I see on the internet about how much money these guys are making as compared to middle-americans who struggle to get by on the median incomes for this country. Baseball players participate in an economic market just like the rest of us; it just happens to value their talents at levels measured in the tens of millions of dollars instead of the tens of thousands that us normal people are used to. For a huge, huge majority of professional baseball players, even a few seasons at the MLB minimum is all they’re ever going to see as payoff for years and years of incredibly curtailed earnings in the minors, and I’ll never consider these guys “overpaid.”

Written by Todd Boss

April 15th, 2014 at 8:00 am

Ranking Baseball’s General Managers

31 comments

I’ll bet you don’t know who this is, but I think he’s baseball’s best GM. Photo AP via mail.com

I was listening to a baseball podcast this past week about General Managers in baseball and heard an interesting fact; it has now been more than two years since an MLB General Manager has been fired. Sure enough, the last GM fired was Houston’s Ed Wade in November of 2011. There is a GM with less service time (Rick Hahn of the White Sox), but he rose to take over the job for long time GM Kenny Williams, who was promoted to executive VP of the team. So all in all there’s been decent stability among baseball executives in the shorter term.

I’ve had a draft version of a “GM Rankings” post written for nearly three years. Why so long? Because I started the post, got distracted, and then no less than seven general manager positions were filled/replaced in two very hectic weeks following the end of the 2011 season. There’s no way you can judge how well a GM has done with just a few months on the job, so there was no point in trying to rank the GMs when a quarter of them were un-rankable.

Well, now we’re two plus years onwards from October 2011, each of those seven new GMs has had two seasons and three off-seasons to show their vision, and I think its time to revisit my rankings.

Below is an attempt to rank the GMs, #1 to #30. Beware: this is a massive post. 6,000+ words. I may have over-done it a little bit.

To me, a successful GM balances several factors all at once:

Winning at the major league level (obviously).
Total payroll outlay (in the context of free agency and use of your payroll budget)
Player development/Farm system rankings
Trades and industry opinion and reaction on moves made to build your team

Now for the caveats to keep in mind to the above GM goals:

Purposely NOT winning on the field: In some cases you get carte blanche to purposely be awful on the field after years of mis-management and get a pass (see Houston Astros and the Chicago Cubs, along with several other teams to a lesser, less obvious extent).
Payroll discrepancies/Major market GMs: To me, generating the best or 2nd best record in baseball with the largest payroll isn’t proving anything. In fact, if you do NOT make the playoffs despite such a massive payroll (as the Red Sox didn’t do in 2010 and the Yankees didn’t do in 2012), then if anything you’re really failing as a GM. So payroll versus success counts heavily to me. As you’ll see below with the rankings of the GMs from the profligate teams.
Farm system usage caveats: In some cases you sacrifice your farm system to make acquisitions to help you win now (like what the Milwaukee Brewers did in 2011 and what Toronto has done for the last couple of years).

I created a GM rankings spreadsheet where I track all sorts of interesting information that you use to judge GMs (the link is also along the right hand side of the blog), and where I tried to quantitatively judge the 30 GMs. The spreadsheet has GM tenure, market size, ownership meddling factors, Farm system rankings, 2012 and 2013 payroll versus W/L rankings, plus my attempts to quantify three facets of a GM’s job: MLB success, Trades and FA moves and the Farm system. I will freely admit; i am paying significantly more attention to performance over the past three years than performance over the past 10. Maybe that’s fair, may be not. But it hurts a long-time GM like Brian Cashman who guided his team to the playoffs year after year (but, see Cashman’s write up for my reservations on GMs of massive payroll teams).

I’m classifying the GMs into rough tiers:

The Elite: The best GMs in the game, who have balanced payroll, on-field success and development the best.
The Excellent: a group of ten or so GMs who are all excellent at what they do and are mostly interchangeable up and down the order.
The Middle-ground: a group of GMs that happens to include three of the biggest spender teams and the bottoming-out teams that are difficult to judge.
The Concerning: GMs who for various reasons are struggling right now.
The Underperforming: the bottom few GMs who for various reasons are easy targets for bloggers based on their moves and their teams.

It is really hard to rank these guys 1 to 30 without someone nit picking the order, but I would argue with you if you told me that some one in the bottom tier was actually “good.” It wasn’t as easy to do these rankings as I thought it would be; in fact every time I’ve come back to this post i’ve ended up moving around the GMs, to the point where I’m just declaring victory and publishing. I like the top and bottom of these rankings, but if you wanted to argue that the guy I’ve got ranked 22nd really should be 18th, then I probably won’t disagree.

Lets give it a shot:

The Elite

1. John Mozeliak, St. Louis. What more can you say about the model franchise of baseball and its leader/architect? The #1 farm system last year, a huge percentage of its players home-grown, in the playoffs three of the last four years, a win and a runner-up in that time, and all while maintaining a payroll outside the top 10 in the league. This team survived the FA loss of the game’s best player (Albert Pujols) by returning to the playoffs the subsequent year and leading the league in wins in 2013. Can’t ask for much more than that. Mozeliak is my choice for the best GM in the game over two other more famous candidates in the elite category.

2. Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay. Is there any argument that Friedman is this high? He took over in 2005 and within three years had the league’s best record. They’ve won 90+ games four years in a row in the league’s best division. He’s done this despite routinely having one of the lowest payrolls in the game, despite off-loading talent as soon as it becomes pricey, by stockpiling draft picks (11 of the first 75 picks in the 2011 draft), and by signing his key players early on to incredibly club-friendly contracts (see the deals that Evan Longoria and David Price signed pre-arbitration). In fact, I daresay that the success the Rays have had in the draft was a driving force behind richer owners (hello, Mr. Jerry Reinsdorf) pushing for bonus limits on the amateur market. In 2013 the team had the 3rd lowest payroll in the game but still made the playoffs ahead of the Yankees (who spent nearly FOUR TIMES as much as the Rays). Many would say these facts by default put Friedman #1 and I wouldn’t argue; only the drop-off in his farm system this year keeps him from overtaking Mozeliak. Call these two GMs 1 and 1-a.

3. Billy Beane, Oakland. The league’s 2nd longest tenured GM is likely to retire as its longest, since he owns a stake in the team and has re-made his approach to building teams in the last couple of years to great success. This ownership stake affords Beane the job security that he wouldn’t have otherwise, and has afforded him the time he needed to find his next “market inefficiency.” After some lean years following the “Moneyball” period in the mid 2000s, Beane has turned the A’s into a two-time defending AL West defending champion (a division with two of the most profligate spending teams in the game). His new team-building method seems to be around wheeling-and-dealing, and he’s been good at it. He turned over a significant amount of his 2012 team and won even more games in 2013. The ding on Beane may be his farm system; Oakland has struggled to develop players lately and some may argue that Beane’s ranking should be slightly lower as a result. I’ll say this though; being successful in the league when routinely putting out payrolls in the $55M-$60M range (where his 2012 and 2013 teams sat) by default makes you one of the best in my book.

The Excellent

4. Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers. Texas made the 2010 World Series with the 27th highest payroll in the major leagues. That in and among itself is enough to earn Daniels his street cred. However, his 2013 payroll had ballooned to $125M and they got unlucky by missing out on the playoffs by one game in 2013. Otherwise two World Series trips in four years is still nothing to shake a stick at, and the fact that they didn’t win game 6 of the 2011 World Series still amazes me. Daniels’ reputation is on the line though in a big way; his moves for Prince Fielder, for Shin-Soo Choo and for Alex Rios will be tested in 2014. The team will need everything it can get out of its (mostly) home grown rotation thanks to unfortunate injuries already suffered this year (Derek Holland tripping over his own dog). I give Daniels a ton of credit for accomplishing what he did with a $65M payroll; can he continue to do it with a $130M payroll? The bar only gets higher.

5. Walt Jocketty, Cincinnati. I still wonder how he got fired in St. Louis. He made the playoffs 6 years out of 7, including a World Series win. Then the year following he gets canned. In Cincinnati, he inherited a reigning NL MVP Joey Votto but made some shrewd acquisitions (Mat Latos, Aroldis Chapman), and drafted well (including selecting Mike Leake, who has yet to spend a day in the minors). The Reds play in a small market but have made the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years and continue to develop good players (Billy Hamilton and Tony Cingrani being the latest two studs). Jocketty is in a lofty rank now; we’ll see how things go after the loss of Shin-Soo Choo this past off-season and the slight turning-over of the roster we’re now seeing. If the Reds continue to make the playoffs, Jocketty should continue to get a ton of credit.

6. Ben Cherington, Boston Red Sox. Normally I’m really skeptical of GMs for teams with $175M payrolls who have success. But it is difficult to argue with what Cherington has done since taking over the reigns. He completely undid a ton of the damage that his predecessor had done by offloading two horrible contracts (Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez) and one malcontent (Josh Beckett) on the Dodgers and actually receiving prospect value back. He has quickly built the Boston farm system back to where it is one of the best in the game (they have as many top 100 prospects as any organization out there). And they just won the World Series. Cherington loses some credit for the disastrous Bobby Valentine hiring that led to the even more disastrous 2012 season … but he also recognized the faults with both the team and the manager and led a complete 180 degree turnaround. And I laughed at Cherington’s almost comical chasing of closers (as documented in this space in June 2013). But a title erases a lot of criticism. Boston remains well positioned going forward but will be depending very heavily on the fruits of their farm system in 2014 and beyond. If Boston turns these high value prospects into another playoff appearance while driving down payroll, Cherington’s ranking will only rise.

7. Mike Rizzo, Washington Nationals. Rizzo took over for the disgraced Jim Bowden in March of 2009 and had quite a job ahead of him. The team on the field was on their way towards losing 100 games for the second year in a row and the farm system was dead last in the majors. What has Rizzo done since? The team improved 30 games in the win column between 2010 and 2012, the farm system was considered the best in the game just two years on from Rizzo’s hiring (it should be said, thanks to two straight #1 overall picks resulting in two of the most dynamic players in the last 20 years being available to us), and now has two drafts and two off-seasons worth of work under his belt. He has brought a new mind-set to the draft, focusing on quick-to-the-majors college arms instead of nebulous tools-y high school players. He also has managed to work with the sport’s most notorious agent (Scott Boras) and successfully handled the two most high-profile draftees (arguably) in the history of the game. He has completely re-made the Nats roster in the past two years (only 3 members of the opening day roster 2009 team are still with the franchise). I’ve questioned his roster construction at times, feeling like he over-emphasized defenders at the expense of offense (running Michael Morse and Josh Willingham out of town), and he obsessed over a leadoff/CF type until he got one (Denard Span, trading away our best starting pitching prospect at the time), but a 98-win season smooths over a lot of criticism. Other pundits place Rizzo even higher than I have; 7th seems like a good spot to be until we see if this team can get back to the playoffs. If the Nats falter again in 2014 and don’t achieve something in this “window,” Rizzo’s tenure and the 2012 season may be viewed simply as an aberration instead of a well built team.

8. Frank Wren, Atlanta Braves. A couple years ago you would probably have Wren ranked in the middle of the pack at best. He clearly botched both ends of the Mark Teixeira deals, essentially turning Texas regulars Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia into a year of Teixeira and Casey Kotchman. Imagine how good Atlanta would be right now if they still had the 3 core members that remain in Texas. That being said, you cannot argue with where the Braves have been going. With middle-of-the-road payrolls and an awful TV deal the Braves have a team with a lot of home-grown talent that won the NL East by 10 games last year. His rotation is young and home-grown (Minor, Beachy, Medlen, Teheran), his team full of home-grown talent (with Freeman, Heyward and Simmons leading the way). And they have the best bullpen in the game. On the down-side, there are questions about some of his recent signings (BJ Upton and Uggla in particular), the farm system hasn’t quite come back from its 2010 rankings (thanks to so much of the talent it generated), and I’m not sure anyone really likes Atlanta’s 2013 off-season. So, we’ll give Wren credit for the past few years and indicate a note of caution going forward.

9. Neil Huntington, Pittsburgh Pirates. I’m not sure if I’ve got him too high, but I’ll say this: after getting Pittsburgh to the playoffs (and a winning record) for the first time in a generation, Huntington has them in the right direction. His moves to build last year’s team were excellent, the team has a ton of home-grown talent yet still has one of the best farm systems in the game, and should continue to be a success in the NL Central.

10. Sandy Alderson, New York Mets. How can anyone involved with the New York Mets over the past 10 seasons be considered a success? Because long-time baseball insider Alderson has done well with what he was handed and has the Mets heading in the right direction. In the past three years their farm system has grown in leaps and bounds, going from the bottom third to nearly a top 5 system. He got great value in trade for R.A. Dickey, has drafted and developed well, and we started to see the fruits of that player development with last year’s all-star game starter Matt Harvey. He’s finally rid of the awful contracts that his predecessor handed him ($43.6M of the team’s $93M payroll last year was dead money to just two guys: Johan Santana and Jason Bay. Almost 50%) and has bought conservatively this off-season while Harvey recovers and more of his young arms matriculate. If the Mets ownership ever decides to start spending money again and this team’s prospects come to fruition, they could be a force.

11. Brian Sabean, San Francisco Giants. Sabean is the longest tenured GM in the game, is unabashedly “old school” and is consistently mocked for his signings and moves. I thought his Tim Lincecum deal was ridiculous, I couldn’t believe the amount of money they guaranteed Hunter Pence, and more than a few people are questioning the Michael Morse deal. San Francisco’s farm system is weak and has been for years (after contributing MVPs and Cy Young winners, it should be said). To all these naysayers I say this: Two World Series titles in the last four years. The goal of every team is to win the title, and his teams have done it twice in four years. The Yankees have one title in the last 15 years. So you have to give Sabean some credit. 11th seems about right. Not too high, not too low. He’d have been much higher had his team not imploded in 2013.

12. Chris Antonetti, Cleveland Indians. Antonelli has subscribed to the same “wheeling and dealing” mechanism for building teams that Billy Beane has done, and it turned a perennial doormat Indians team into a 2013 playoff team. They play in a small market and have an $80M payroll, and Antonelli has taken their farm system from awful to respectable in the last three years. So the system is improving as is the on-the-field product. So far, so good in Cleveland for Antonelli’s tenure. I’m hesitant to push him much higher because i’m convinced the Indians succeeded in 2013 on the backs of several very awful divisional rivals (for example; the Indians were 17-2 on the season versus the White Sox but only 4-15 versus the Tigers, quite a swing for a 90-win team; if they were that legitimate a team they would have been much closer to .500 against their divisional winner). So slightly above the median looks good.

The Middle-Ground

13. Jeff Luhnow, Houston Astros. Three years ago Houston was an 88-loss team with a $90M payroll and the 29th ranked farm system. To his credit, Luhnow has reversed at least two of those factors in a big way; he has cleared the decks of the awful contracts that boat-anchored the Astros under his predecessor. Of course, at the same time he’s turned the Astros into a 110-loss team and, for the first time since the dead-ball era, last place three years running. So what has Luhnow done? Inside of two years he’s gone from the worst farm system to the best on the backs of #1 overall picks Carlos Correa and Mark Appel. Soon they’ll likely add Carlos Rodon to that stable, giving this team a fearsome set of players to roll-out within a couple years. So how do we judge Luhnow? Right about in the middle; he’s set out to do what he needed to do; if his foundation leads to on-the-field success Luhnow will be counted among the best GMs in the game for laying out the roadmap and sticking to it.

14. Brian Cashman, New York Yankees. Some say that just the mere fact that Cashman has survived as long as he has in the shadow of the Steinbrenner family ownership of the Yankees should be proof enough that he is among the best GMs in the game, and certainly higher ranked than he is here. Fair enough. But here’s the inescapable facts: his farm system is deteriorating, the most significant player on the 2014 team actually developed at home seems to be Brett Gardner, they had a $225M payroll last year and didn’t make the playoffs, their rotation will pivot mostly on a 40-yr old’s career renaissance, and their starting 2014 infield played a combined 200 games last year. And they’re being saved only by the grace of Bud Selig‘s hatred for Alex Rodriguez, whose suspension “saves” the team $25M this year (quickly spent on their new “#3 starter” Masahiro Tanaka, to whom they guaranteed more than $175M dollars). I dunno; maybe Cashman should be lower. They have made the playoffs 4 of the last 6 years and have a title, and Cashman’s early tenure record speaks for itself .. but at what point do you notice that the team hasn’t done very much since the “core four” have entered their decline phases and begin to wonder if Cashman isn’t just a guy with a big checkbook instead of a good GM?

15. Dave Dombrowski, Detroit Tigers. Lots of on-field success thanks to Dombrowski sticking to his plan; he took over the year the Tigers lost 119 games. It is worth noting that 3 years later they were in the world series. Now he’s gotten them into the playoffs three years running, to which he’s due plenty of credit. But his farm system has hit rock bottom, he’s spending a ton of money, and he’s making very questionable moves. The industry panned his Doug Fister move (even if it seemed to greatly benefit the Nats) and people questioned his Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler move. They were weird moves for a “win now” team. Perhaps I should give Dombrowski more credit, but his 2013-14 off-season knocked him down a number of pegs for me. If they miss out on the playoffs to an up-and-coming Royals team, he’ll suddenly be on the hot-seat.

16. Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers. Seriously, how do you judge the job Colletti is doing right now? His team’s payroll went from $95M in 2012 to more than $216M in 2013. He’s got $57M tied up in three outfielders not named Yasiel Puig right now. You almost got the impression that Colletti called up Boston and just said, “Hey, I’ll take every sh*tty contract off your hands right now … i’ve got money to spend and I don’t care how we spend it!” On the bright side, somehow the Dodgers have kept a reasonable ranking with their farm system throughout all of this, but the skill involved with paying everyone on your team $20M/year is close to nil. As with Cashman, I wonder if Colletti is ranked too high even here.

17. Dayton Moore, Kansas City Royals. Other mid-market teams (Oakland, Tampa, Pittsburgh) have shown a ton more accomplishment on the field than Kansas City; why hasn’t Moore’s teams done better? He’s been in his job nearly 8 seasons and the team spun its wheels for seven of them. Signings that didn’t pay off and fizzled farm system talents defined this team for years. Finally Moore went all-in, trading the best prospect in the game (Wil Myers) for a package of pitchers to help the Royals get over the hump. Between 2012 and 2013 they added $21M in payroll and these players and gained 14 games in the win column; just enough for … 3rd place. The industry entirely believes Moore was fleeced by Tampa Bay, and the trade looked so bad at the time that pundits wondered if Moore wasn’t getting some pressure from above to “win more now or get canned.” But it didn’t take Myers but the next season to win the rookie of the year award, and he may be a player that Kansas City fans rue for a generation. I think Moore may not be long for the job, and with good reason; why hasn’t he been able to win when guys like Huntington and Beane have?

18. Terry Ryan, Minnesota Twins. Ryan has been with Minnesota for-ever; hired in 1994. He stepped aside and then was re-hired in 2011, and is now in a rebuilding phase. The team let go one of its faces of the franchise last off season (Justin Morneau) and is going to begin a big youth movement this year. They’re going to be bad, but perhaps not Houston bad thanks to a couple of (odd?) starting pitcher signings. Help is coming; Ryan has built on of the best farm systems in the game and it features two of the top 5 prospects out there (Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano). Perhaps it isn’t fair to rank Ryan here with Luhnow higher, but Ryan was partly responsible for the downfall of this team and the abhorrent starting rotation of last year. But once their MVP-grade talents arrive at the majors, Ryan’s work of rebuilding the farm system should be rewarded.

The Concerning

19. Josh Byrnes, San Diego. Byrnes inherited a 90-win team that surprised but which was getting ready to hit a transitional stage. Byrnes got some good prospects from the Adrian Gonzalez deal and some more in the Mat Latos deal, but they havn’t turned into wins on the Three straight years of 71-76 wins has spirits dampened in San Diego. Now their MLB team looks poor, the farm system is good but drifting, and they’re talking about another rebuilding effort. He’s only a couple years in but things aren’t looking up; his division includes a team that is spending 4 times what he can spend.

20. Kevin Towers, Arizona. So here’s my summary of Towers’ tenure in Arizona so far: he continues to drive away players and prospects who aren’t “gritty” enough for him, trading them for 50 cents on the dollar. His farm system has gone from good to middle of the road. His payroll is rising … and yet his team is winning the same number of games. And yet both he and Kirk Gibson just got contract extensions. Why exactly does anyone think Towers and Gibson are doing a good job right now? How many more games would they have lost had they not magically found a 6-win player in Paul Goldschmidt (an 8th round pick) last year?

21. Jed Hoyer (Theo Epstein), Chicago Cubs. I know Hoyer is the GM, but lets be honest; this is Epstein’s team. The Cubs hired Epstein for him to re-make the franchise as he did in Boston. Except that Epstein left Boston in a huge mess, with a slew of very bad contracts and an even worse clubhouse. Now he’s come to Chicago and made some questionable moves (the Edwin Jackson signing, the Anthony Rizzo fan-boy pursuit, etc) while not making other more obvious moves (why is Jeff Samardzija still on this team if they’re “rebuilding?”). To their credit, they got value for Alfonso Soriano, only one of the most untradeable players in the game. And they’ve gotten a pass to rebuild the farm system, which is now ranked in the top 5 in the game and should start to bear fruit. Now, that farm system is loaded with hitters, and with Wrigley’s comfy stadium the Cubs may be offensive juggernauts in no time, but they still need pitching. How will the Hoyer/Epstein team handle that? Hopefully not with more signings like the Jackson deal.

22. Michael Hill, Miami Marlins. The one huge caveat that goes with the Miami GM job is this: Jeffrey Loria is probably the most hands on owner in the game, and you almost can’t judge this GM’s ability based on who is calling the shots. The only other owner who seems to have as much pull is, ironically, ranked next. Miami loaded up for 2012 in their new stadium and had completely dismantled things before August. Now they’re a $50M payroll team with some superstar prospects .. but a middling farm system and questionable direction.

23. Dan Duquette, Baltimore Orioles. Duquette has had an odd off-season; his owner 86’d two of his signings thanks to questioning the “medicals,” which insiders point out is Peter Angelos‘ method of nixing deals he doesn’t like. Must be frustrating. Instead Duquette is now signing every re-tread FA who can’t find a job thanks to the CBA’s draft pick compensation issues, punting draft pick after draft pick. The O’s did make the playoffs in 2012, thanks to an unsustainable record in one-run games, and have had a decent run of success out of their farm system (Manny Machado should be mentioned in the same breath as Trout and Harper frankly), but are they on the right track to get back?

24. Dan O’Dowd/Bill Geivett, Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have a very unique front-office structure right now, resulting from an August 2012 shake-up that left industry insiders questioning the roles and the message coming from the team. Nonetheless, the direction of the Rockies leaves something to be desired. They’ve drifted on the field, employed questionable starting pitching usage strategies, and generally are treading water. Their farm system is starting to look up though; will that be enough to compete in a division with the Dodgers?

25. Alex Anthopolous, Toronto Blue Jays. Anthopolous took over for the maligned JP Ricciardi after the 2009 season. In the time since, he traded Roy Halladay, acquired Morrow, traded for Escobar and Jo-Jo Reyes, acquired Rajai Davis, and perhaps most impressively offloaded the albatross contract for Vernon Wells. He had an 85-win team in the hardest division in baseball with a 70M payroll for 2011. Then he went for it, emptying the farm system (which was one of the league’s best in 2011) to acquire the likes of R.A. Dickey and the whole slew of ex-Marlins. Now he’s got a massive payroll, an underperforming team and empty cupboards in the minors. All the good work he did to prepare Toronto for battle in the AL east has gone for naught unless last year was just a big huge adjustment period for all these newly acquired veterans.

The Underperforming

26. Doug Melvin, Milwaukee Brewers: Melvin is an interesting case; the Brewers purposely bottomed out their farm system to make a playoff run in 2011, the last year before they lost Prince Fielder and their fortunes would change. And change they have; the Brewer’s player development efforts have not moved off the bottom of the league (their farm system is either last or dead last on every pundit list) while their on-the-field record has dropped (they’ve gone from 96 to 83 to 74 wins in the last three years). Now they’re the 4th best team in their division and it isn’t close, and it is unclear what their plan is going forward. They’ve got quality players at certain places, but have made odd signings (losing their 1st round pick last year to sign Kyle Lohse of all people). You can’t help the Ryan Braun situation, and they got unlucky with injuries (Corey Hart in particular) so perhaps this ranking is unfair. But I still feel like the Brewers are adrift in terms of strategy and thus Melvin’s ranked this low.

27. Jerry Dipoto, Los Angeles Angels. The worst or 2nd worst (along with Milwaukee) farm system in the majors for the past few years. One of the largest payrolls in the league giving them a 78-84 record last year. Over-paying for aging slugger (Albert Pujols) after aging slugger (Josh Hamilton) while inexplicably signing one of the worst statistical starters in the game to a multi-year deal (Joe Blanton) and entering last season with a clear and obvious rotation issue. Dipoto earned the absolute worst “quantitative grade” in my GM ranking xls, trying to measure the three GM factors of on-the-field success, farm system development and trades/FA signings. The only reason I don’t also rank him last is because i’m not entirely convinced that Dipoto isn’t a decent executive who’s being told by a highly-involved owner (Arte Moreno) to sign all these guys. But, there’s really no reason that a team playing in LA and who is spending three times what his divisional rival Oakland is spending isn’t consistently finishing ahead of them in the standings.

28. Rick Hahn (Kenny Williams), Chicago White Sox. What can you say? The White Sox lost 100 games with a $118M payroll last year and have had the worst (or near to it) farm system in the game for years. The White Sox organization is in a bad way, and i’m not sure why Williams’ stewardship was rewarded with the “promotion” to team president. They lost 18 games in the win column from 2012 to 2013 and it is hard to see how they’re going to be any better this year. It does seem though that they are undergoing a “rebuilding effort,” in that their payroll seems like it will be $40M less this year versus last and they’ve moved some of their bigger salaries in “rebuilding mode” moves (Alex Rios, Jake Peavy). So perhaps its slightly unfair to have Hahn so low, if he’s entering into a purposely bad period. Nonetheless; this set of executives got the White Sox where they are now, so their low ranking is earned.

29. Ruben Amaro, Philadelphia Phillies. I’ll admit that i’m probably biased here. While i’ve given credit to other GMs whose teams have had success in the past several years, i’ve not given Amaro the same benefit of the doubt. And that basically comes down to several, clear facts; Amaro has destroyed the Phillies with multiple long-term deals for declining players, most notably Ryan Howard‘s contract (widely considered the worst dollar for dollar contract in the game). His team 3rd highest payroll in 2013 and nearly lost 90 games. His recent FA moves have been laughable (Delmon Young and Michael Young? John Lannan as his sole pitching move last off-season? His ridiculous contract extension for Carlos Ruiz this past off-season?). His heels-in-the-ground obstinant refusal to adopt any understanding or acceptance for analytics or modern statistical approach to his job makes me wonder just how asleep at the wheel his owner is. He’s let his farm system lapse while his on-the-field product falters. He puts out mixed messages in regards to his direction (Cliff Lee mentioned in trade rumors? Are the Phillies going to rebuild or not?). But the coup-de-grace for me is the news that just came out that Amaro’s organization has purposely attempted to sabotage college kids who spurned the Phillies last summer, ratting them out to the NCAA out of pettiness, spite or vengeance. Despite their WS win and appearances in the last 6 years, I cannot for the life of me figure out why Amaro still has a job at this point.

30. Jack Zduriencik, Seattle Mariners. Zero playoff appearances in his tenure. His farm system has pushed out all the talent it apparently has to give and now is in the bottom third of the league with more than a few “busts” (notably Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley vastly underperforming). A 90 loss team last year, and he’s just gotten done committing hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts yet likely has only improved his team a few wins, thanks to a fundamental lack of understanding of what it takes to build baseball lineups (he seems to be depending basically on 3 rookies in his rotation for 2014). And it seems that Zduriencik not only is poor at his job, but he may have depended on deception (if not outright fraud) to get it, thanks to the reporting of Geoff Baker at The Seattle Times last off-season. One only needs to look at his method of building teams to notice that he has no concept of defensive capabilities and he seems to collect 1b/DH types without consideration of how many runs they’ll be costing him thanks to sub-par defense (Michael Morse and Raul Ibanez at the corner OF positions last year, his plans to play Logan Morrison and Corey Hart in the OF this year). How long before Robinson Cano is a brooding $200M boat anchor on this team as they continue to lose 90 games year after year in a division dominated with better GMs and bigger payrolls? All these facts contribute to my ranking Zduriencik last.

Here’s some other links relevant to this discussion, for your perusal. Wiki’s list of all 30 GMs. Baseball America’s excellent Executive database. Scout.com’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the GMs by job security in Jan 2014. Buster Olney posted a “Peer Review” of GMs back in 2010, but its mostly obsolete with all the movement since. Still somewhat interesting to hear what GMs are saying about each other anonymously.

Finally some other rankings lists that I could find (and their top 5):

Dan Szymborski‘s top 5 Dec 2013: Beane, Friedman, Daniels, Mozeliak, Rizzo (from a chat).
MLBtraderumors ran a poll in April of 2013 where you can vote, and the top 5 crowd-source vote-getters are: Beane, Friedman, Mozeliak, Cashman and Sabean.
The NYPost’s Ken Davidoff ranks GMS every off-season and he came in with Friedman, Beane, Daniels, Dombrowski and Mozeliak in Dec 2013 (he has Cashman way too high, but he is a NY-based writer and focuses on the entire body of work).
Rantsports.com’s GM Power rankings from Aug 2013 (which I think are misguided mostly because of how low Beane is): Daniels, Cherington, Friedman, Huntington, Antonelli
And lastly this oddly titled “Sexiest GMs” ranking from Dec 2012 caused some laughs at the time. Towers, Beane, Moore, Cashman, Hoyer.

Thoughts? Think I have some guys too high and some too low? Discuss in the comments.

Written by Todd Boss

February 26th, 2014 at 8:03 am

Posted in Baseball in General

Tagged with adrian gonzalez, albert pu jols, albert pujols, alex anthopolous, alex rios, alex rodriguez, alfonso soriano, andrelton simmons, andrew friedman, anthony rizzo, aroldis chapman, arte moreno, ben chrington, bill geivett, billy beane, billy hamilton, bj upton, bobby valentine, brandon beachy, brandon morrow, brett gardner, brian cashman, brian sabean, bud selig, buster olney, byron buxton, carl crawford, carlos correa, carlos rodon, carlos ruiz, casey kotchman, chris antonetti, corey hart, dan duquette, dan o'dowd, dan szymborski, dan uggla, dave dombrowski, david price, dayton moore, delmon young, denard span, derek holland, doug fister, doug melvin, dustin ackley, ed wade, edwin jackson, elvis andrus, evan longoria, frank wren, freddie freeman, geoff baker, hunter pence, ian kinsler, jack zduriencik, jake peavy, jarrod saltalamacchia, jason bay, jason heyward, jed hoyer, jeff luhnow, jeff samardzija, jeffrey loria, jerry dipoto, jerry reinsdorf, jim bowden, jo-jo reyes, joe blanton, joey votto, johan santana, john mozeliak, jon daniels, josh beckett, josh byrnes, josh hamilton, josh willingham, jp ricciardi, julio teheran, justin morneau, justin smoak, ken davidoff, kenny williams, kevin towers, kiley mcdaniel, kirk gibson, kris medlen, kyle lohse, logan morrison, manny machado, mark appel, mark teixeira, masahiro tanaka, mat latos, matt harrison, matt harvey, michael hill, michael morse, michael young, miguel sano, mike leake, mike minor, mike rizzo, ned colletti, neftali felix, neil huntington, paul goldschmidt, peter angelos, prince fielder, ra dickey, rajai davis, raul ibanez, rick hahn, robinson cano, roy halladay, ruben amaro, ryan braun, ryan howard, sandy alderson, scott boras, shin-soo choo, terry ryan, theo epstein, tim lincecum, tony cingrani, vernon wells, walt jocketty, wil myers, yasiel puig, yunel escobar

Ask Boswell 2/18/14 Edition

23 comments

Lots of questions about Mr. Williams. Photo Nats official 2014 via sportingnews.com

Washington Post columnist Tom Boswell must be in heaven: he’s at Spring Training, in 80 degree weather, talking baseball. Here’s his 2/18/14 WP chat edition and how i’d have answered his baseball questions. He did an extra long session, doing an hour and then coming back for even more questions, so this is a huge post.

Q: Which Nat is most and least likely to benefit from Matt Williams’ detail-oriented approach?

A: I’ll take the easy way out on this one: I’ll say that the rookies are most likely to benefit and the veterans are least-likely. But that’s probably not very fair because it assumes that our vets will automatically have a hard time adjusting to a new voice. In reality, Matt Williams‘ pedigree as a player is going to shut just about any veteran up; name one player on this team who has accomplished anything close to what Williams did as a player? I mean, we’re talking about a guy with multiple All Star appearances, multiple Gold Gloves, multiple Silver Sluggers, a couple near MVP seasons, more than 200 post-season at-bats spread across 5 post-season trips, three trips to the World Series and one ring. He also played in two specific games that are both counted among the best games of the last 50 years (Game 7 of the 1997 World Series and 2001’s Game 7 of the World Series).

That’s a heck of a lot of accomplishments. Who in their right mind is looking him in the fact and doubting his wisdom about anything?

Boswell points out a number of guys who are “introverts” who like the structure, mentions Rafael Soriano as a possible problem child … but then also notes Soriano lost a ton of weight and is playing for a contract, so he doesn’t expect any issues. Fair enough.

Q: Where can I get good details on the Nats spring training schedules in Viera?

A: CSN’s Mark Zuckerman posts a great intro-to-spring training on his Natsinsider.com blog each year. Here’s parts 1 and 2, focusing on the Nats baseball Complex and the Town of Viera. Boswell speaks highly of watching bullpen sessions. Can’t blame him; man I want to do Spring Training sometime!

Q: What does the Yankees signing of Masahiro Tanaka do for the Yankees season?

A: Not much in my opinion. Despite Tanaka’s pedigree and $175M paycheck, he’s being touted by his own team as a “#3 starter.” That’s a heck of a lot of money for a #3 starter. Now in reality scouts liken him to a young Dan Haren (in terms of his repertoire), but he’s still not nearly in the same Ace class as the most recent Japanese import Yu Darvish. Plus he’s got to deal with the inevitable adjustment to this country, a new language, 10,000 obnoxious NY beat reporters, the food, the city, and that pesky 4-days of rest schedule we have here for our starters.

As for the Yankees chances in 2014 in general, check out their current depth chart: Their rotation is set to be Sabathia (coming off an awful year), 40-yr old Kuroda, Tanaka, Ivan Nova and David Phelps. Does that sound like a 95-win rotation? Here’s their infield: Mark Teixeira (15 games last year), Brian Roberts (77 games last year), Derek Jeter (17 games last year), and Eduardo Nunez (90 games last year). Does that infield inspire confidence? What makes anyone think that infield is lasting even a quarter of the season without a major injury? Plus, Buster Olney or Jayson Stark recently mentioned this factoid: “No team has ever in the history of the game had a winning season starting a shortstop as old as Jeter.” Yes the Yankees made some significant signings (Beltran, Ellsbury, McCann). But I don’t think its enough to make up for what’s going to happen to their infield. I think years of overpaying for FAs and being unlucky in their player development has caught up with the Yankees in a big way and they’ll be lucky to be a .500 team this year. Boswell points out that PECOTA has them as 82-80. And then he drops a scary subtle hint saying that Ian Desmond has already declined an $85M deal and may have his sights on becoming the next Yankees long-term shortstop. Ouch. Thankfully the timing doesn’t quite work out; Jeter retires after this year and the Nats have Desmond locked up for two seasons.

Q: Can you go into the stadium and see the view from your seats before committing to a Season Ticket?

A: No idea, but I’d bet the answer is yes. We could do that before, you know back when I was a season ticket holder, pre Nats stadium, pre kids, pre getting-royally-screwed-in-the-new-stadium-relocation game. Boswell assumes yes, and posts an answer confirming it from another fan later on who did exactly this.

Q: Why is the name Redskins such a hotbutton while the Braves gets almost no press?

A: (I couldn’t resist this question even if not entirely about Baseball): Probably because one name is a slur and the other is just a noun. In a politically correct world no person-indicating moniker would ever be used as a team nickname … but then again you can get rather ridiculous (is “Padre” and the drawing of a priest with a goofy smile swinging a bat offensive to the clergy? I’m of Irish descent; what if I said that the Notre Dame “Fighting Irish” is offensive to me because of my culture?). Plus, frankly, I don’t get why little Danny Snyder won’t just frigging change the name; I mean, how many gazillions of dollars of new merchandise sales would he get if he re-branded the team? Why is he so obstinate about this issue? Every time he posts some dumb letter defending the name it makes him look more and more like a little rich whiny fan-boy who grew up loving the team despite being too sickly to actually play, and now he’s clinging to an iconic symbol of his youth. As if it was a ratty security blanket. Boswell talks about cultural change and social progress and hints that he’s going to post his official opinion on the matter soon.

Q: Has Jeter’s retirement caused TOO much media attention?

A: Honestly, I don’t feel like it has; at least not as much as the questioner, who whined about all the coverage and news items related to Jeter. Perhaps its because he’s gone up against the Olympics and NBC’s force-fed human interest coverage machine that I havn’t noticed.

Olympics Rant/Tangent: Seriously; I thought I had seen it all with NBC’s ridiculous coverage over the years of figure skaters as “athletes” … now the coverage of these silly snowboarders has surpassed it. I’m sorry; if your “sport” requires judges who take into consideration your “style” or your “costume,” then it isn’t a sport. “Team skating?” “Ice Dancing?” Why not just have a frigging spinning contest or see who can coast the longest on one skate or some other useless reason to award a few more gold medals? In my opinion, if there isn’t a score or a race to a finish line or one man versus another in a contest … you’re not a sport. Nothing against figure skaters specifically; what they do is amazing, requires elegance and strength and years of training. But so does Ballet; why is one an olympic sport and the other a performance art? All those cirque-de-soleil performers? Why isn’t that an olympic sport too?

Tangent/Rant off.

I think we’ll all be pretty frigging sick of Derek Jeter once August and September rolls-around. Yeah he’s a great player, first ballot hall of famer. But so are about 20-25 other guys playing right now. I agree with the questioner’s rant about the over-coverage of all things Yankees. Boswell points out that Jeter’s career WAR is one spot above Bobby Grich, so as to temper some expectations. That’s harsh; even I recognize his importance to the game as a surpassing point than just whittling down all his accomplishments to one (dubious) number.

Q: What is Livan Hernandez’s role on this team?

A: Whatever it is, I think its friggin awesome that he’s in Spring Training representing the Nats. Kudos to whoever reached out and got him to come help out. Livan Hernandez may have played all over the majors (9 teams in 17 seasons; that’s tough to do when you’re not a left-handed reliever) but he played the most of it with our franchise. Boswell’s quoting of Drew Storen‘s description of Livan’s role is awesome: “His job is life-coach, bleep-talker and being Livo.” He also notes that Livan can provide some fielding and instruction on holding runners, a sore spot for several Nats starters.

Q: How is Christian Garcia looking so far? Any chance that he goes north with the club?

A: All reports list Christian Garcia as (finally) healthy. But its telling that the team is already specifically pointing out that “he’s made it further than he did last year.” It seems like his fragility is almost a running joke on the team now. Chances of breaking into the 7-man bullpen? Remote unless there’s injuries. But if he goes to AAA and pitches lights out, he’ll be first guy back. If he stays healthy (four words that should be attached to every single sentence ever written about Garcia). Boswell says that if he’s healthy, he’s on the team. I have a very hard time believing that; who makes way? Not Soriano, Storen, Clippard or Stammen. Not Blevins. Ohlendorf? Roark? Roark’s numbers last fall were *better* than anything Garcia did in 2012 and in 4 times the innings. Ohlendorf isn’t being paid north of $1M to screw around in upstate New York. And, none of this takes into account the statements from Williams about liking to have two lefties in the bullpen… If it were me, I’d want to see Garcia pitch at least a month straight without hurting something on his person.

Q: How would you grade Rizzo’s off-season?

A: Pretty frigging good. Fister: fantastic acquisition. McLouth; not too bad, should help. Lobaton: looking better and better, considering the pedigree i’m hearing about the two guys thrown into the deal (Vettleson and Rivero). I don’t think his lack of acquiring a better lefty will hurt; Sammy Solis is impressing and could contribute immediately, newly acquired Rivero apparently has some stuff, and there’s still the likes of Cedeno and a couple other AAA guys who we could use. Boswell says A- … and then tells a tid-bit about the Grant Balfour deal that fell through.

Q: Why are the Nats pitchers so bad at holding runners on? Is this something they’re working on this Spring

A: Why? beats me. Maybe a better defensive catcher will help in that category. They definitely seem to be working on it this spring as noted in the above Livo question. Boswell doesn’t really answer the question but then uses this question as a segue into talking about Williams’ anger issues. Random.

Q: If Ryan Zimmerman is going to play some first base … what the heck is Tyler Moore going to do?

A: A decent question, but which assumes that Tyler Moore is anything other than a bench bat. And it assumes that Adam LaRoche is going to platoon. I know plenty in the blogosphere want that to happen … but this is a contract year, and the last time couple times LaRoche faced a contract year he played pretty durn good. Meanwhile, Moore seems like the kind of player who could use a change of scenery and a trade to a team with more playing time. Boswell likes his swing.

Q: Is team improvement correlation or causation to a hitting coach change, like what happened last year with Eckstein’s firing?

A: You ask me, i’d say its correlation/coincidence. It isn’t the hitting coach facing 95 mph fastballs. But I’m no professional. Boswell can’t figure it out either.

Q: Did they really need another catcher when they had both two young options and Synder as a proven vet? Why waste a pitching prospect with a high upside for a backup catcher who can’t throw out runners, already a major problem. Did Rizzo get taken by the Rays?

A: Sounds to me like this question-er is overvaluing the potential contributions of our catching prospects Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano, is incredibly overvaluing what Chris Snyder still brings to the table, and is overvaluing Nathan Karns and what is ceiling seems to realistically be. Oh, and he’s undervaluing the prospects we got in return (both of which are in our top 14 according to mlbdraftinsider.com’s recent post). I like the move, it fixes a hole for the team and gives a couple of prospects to shore up a thinned system, all for a guy who I think we all liked in Karns but who likely faces a ceiling of a reliever. Boswell notes the need for a “real” backup catcher and notes that the team traded from depth.

Q: Have the Braves taken a step back this offseason and are really counting on BJ Upton to do anything on offense this year?

A: Yes and yes. McCann is a huge loss. Tim Hudson may not “seem” like a loss given the Braves pitching depth, but he was their opening day starter in 2013 and was their bulldog staff leader (if not an “ace” in the literal sense of the word). They also let go Paul Maholm, who gave them a ton of decent innings last year. They’re depending on Brandon Beachy to come back healthy and on the rest of their young rotation to contribute. Otherwise they did little this off-season other than extending a couple of guys. As far as BJ Upton, what choice do they have but to run him out day after day at this point? Same as Dan Uggla: those two guys are getting paid a ton of money and will be given every chance to prove themselves. Boswell agrees.

Q: How often have you seen baseball players take a hometown discount?

A: Not very often: Roy Halladay took a bit less so he could play for Philly … because their spring training complex is in the same town as his full-time home. Hard to think of obvious other players off-hand. The asker questioned whether Jordan Zimmermann would consider less money to play for his “hometown” Brewers … without really considering the fact that Milwaukee is a cheap-skate franchise and will *never* come close to paying the 9-figure deal that Zimmermann probably earns in two years’ time. Boswell doesn’t really answer the original question, just notes that so far our FA players are going for the money.

Q: In your opinion, who will end up being the fifth starter? Detwiler, Roark, or Jordan?

A: Ross Emery Detwiler, for the same reasons I pointed out in my 2014 Staff Projections post in late december. Quoting myself from that post:

Why am I predicting Detwiler will win the rotation spot? Partly because of options (Detwiler has none while Roark, Ohlendorf and Jordan all do), but partly because I’ve sort of come back around on him after looking more closely at his 2013 season. He had a decent to good 2012; he posted a 118 ERA+ and even if his advanced FIP/SIERA didn’t indicate he was quite that good, he was still more than a servicable 5th starter. Then in his first seven 2013 starts he was also very good (he had a 2.53 ERA in his first 7 starts and 42 2/3 innings … he got hurt in his 8th start). The rest of his season was a mess, with him fighting injury and ballooning his seasonal ERA from 2.53 to more than 4.00 in five more starts. If he comes back healthy to start 2014, why wouldn’t we expect more of the same performance that he had at the start of 2013? For these reasons, I think Detwiler breaks camp as the 5th starter.

I like Tanner Roark and feel the team is going to find a way for him to be in the MLB bullpen. I also now believe Taylor Jordan‘s off-season ankle injury will give the team an excuse to keep him in the minors a bit to season him up and maybe even keep some innings off his arm. So it’ll be Detwiler until he either falters or gets hurt again. At least we have a ton of options this year to cover for a starter injury.

Boswell says Detwiler as well but writes a ton on othe other guys, including a glowing talk about Roark. And he throws in this tidbit: Detroit asked for Jordan and Robbie Ray before settling for Ray and spare parts. Interesting.

Q: What’s your read on how the last two bullpen spots play out?

A: Also borrowing from my Dec 2013 post, I’ll go with Ohlendorf and Roark. Ohlendorf as the long-man, spot starter rubber arm guy. Roark with the hope he continues his magical run of exceptional command and fearless relief. I know that only leaves on lefty out there, and leaves guys like Ryan Mattheus and Christian Garcia in AAA. Hey, I could be wrong. Boswell doesn’t seem to guess.

Q: Do you think the coaches will let Espi continue to be a switch hitter or keep him as a lefty hitter only?

A: I hope you mean righty hitter only; he is a career .220 lefty hitter but .262 righty. If I was the Nats brass, i’d try him as a righty-only guy. But by all accounts Danny Espinosa is a bit stubborn and may not be open to limiting a unique skill that he may continue to think distinguishes himself from other competitors. I continue to wonder just how hurt he was last year … as others have said, it isn’t like Espinosa suddenly forgot how to hit. Yes he was always somewhat limited as a player, but 20-homer capable middle infielders don’t grow on trees. Boswell says the team isn’t messing with Espinosa, and that they want to see what he can do in 2014. Fair enough.

Q: Are you worried about the power (or lack thereof) in the Nats lineup?

A: Not really. The capability is there across the lineup. Zimmerman has hit 30. So has LaRoche. Desmond has hit 20. So has Espinosa. Ramos has 20+ homer capability if he’s healthy. Werth is good for 25 and has hit 30+ before. And none of this talks about our best power hitter Harper and what he can do. Basically the team is a whole bunch of guys with 20 homer capability. The Nats were T-3th in the NL in homers last year as a team (trailing two teams in offensive parks) and should improve in this category with a healthy Harper. Boswell just talks about Ramos’ stats extrapolated to a full season.

Q: Is praise of Williams’ approach tacit criticism of Davey Johnson’s?

A: Yeah probably. That’s why you change managers; to change the message. I’m not going to disparage Davey Johnson too much here other than to say what i’ve said before; the team needed a new voice. Boswell points out that Johnson’s 2012 job was fantastic and that there’s “different jockeys for different horses.” I like that analogy.

One last point: there was a question about MASN that Boswell went off on and gave some tidbits, including a shot at Bud Selig. Its worth the read; click on the chat link and head to the bottom.

Written by Todd Boss

February 19th, 2014 at 8:18 am

Posted in Chat/Mailbag Responses

Tagged with adam laroche, bj upton, bobby grich, brandon beachy, brian mccann, brian roberts, bryce harper, bud selig, buster olney, carlos beltran, cc sabathia, chris snyder, christian garcia, dan snyder, dan uggla, danny espinosa, davey johnson, david phelps, derek jeter, doug fister, drew storen, drew vettleson, eduardo nunez, felipe rivero, grant balfour, hiroki kuroda, ian desmond, ivan nova, jacoby ellsbury, jayson stark, jhonatan solano, jordan zimmermann, jose lobaton, livan hernandez, mark teixeira, mark zuckerman, masahiro tanaka, matt williams, mike rizzo, nate mclouth, nathan karns, paul maholm, rafael soriano, rick eckstein, robbie ray, ross detwiler, ross ohlendorf, roy halladay, ryan mattheus, ryan zimmerman, sammy solis, sandy leon, tanner roark, taylor jordan, tim h udson, tom boswell, tyler moore, wilson ramos, xavier cedeno, yu darvish

First Look: Tanner Roark

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Tanner Roark living the dream. Photo via milb.com

A few days ago I was playing amateur GM and ended up predicting the 8/6/13 roster moves, where Ross Detwiler was transfered to the 60-day DL and Tanner Roark was called up to provide some bullpen cover while Ross Ohlendorf is on the mend. Roark’s body of work both this season and over the past few warranted his call-up, and his mixture of success both in the starter role and in a long-relief role in AAA make him the perfect candidate to replace Ohlendorf for the time being.

A quick side note: whenever I see someone, after years and years of toiling in the minors, finally get the call-up I’m reminded of the storytelling of Dirk Hayhurst in his 2nd book Out of My League, where he described all the logistics and feelings of getting his first callup. Of particular interest; the pay. I’m sure Roark was compensated like a typical minor league veteran in AAA; probably making $1,500 a month or so (which was about what Hayhurst said he made). Upon signing a MLB contract, you immediately start getting paid a pro-rated amount of a minimum MLB salary, which is $490,000 a season. Well, you can quickly see that a guy getting called up immediately starts making significantly more money. 30-40 TIMES more money. More money per day in the majors than he was making in a month in the minors. So I say good for Roark and good for every guy who finally gets a shot at the bigs.

Lets take a look at Roark’s first appearance… which came last night on 8/7/13 in relief of a curiously ineffective Jordan Zimmermann, who needed 88 pitches to complete 4 innings as the Nats officially waved the white flag on the season, getting swept at home by the team they’re chasing for the division lead and falling to 15 1/2 games out of first.

Roark had a great MLB debut. He came in to face Atlanta’s 4-5-6 hitters and pitched a 1-2-3 inning. He got a Brian McCann to fly out on a relatively well struck ball, then badly jammed Chris Johnson to get a simple grounder to short, and then got Dan Uggla to reach for a first pitch fastball for an equally weak grounder to second. Coming back out to face the bottom of the order he effectively jammed BJ Upton, who flared a flyball into shallow center field that Denard Span couldn’t quite come up with in a sliding catch attempt, then he jammed Andrelton Simmons to get a simple pop-up to first. Lastly for his coup-de-gras, he induced a popped-up bunt attempt from his opposite number Kris Medlen, made a diving catch and then doubled off Upton, who was (I guess) running on the play.

Not a bad debut, at all.

The scouting reports on Roark said that he’d work mid 90s in relief, low 90s as a starter, and that’s exactly what we saw. Per the pitch f/x data, He threw 12 fastballs on the night which averaged 94.46, peaking at 95.52. He only threw three sliders, bouncing the first and probably ruining his confidence in the pitch. 10 of 15 pitches were for strikes, and that ratio should have been higher; his first batter he didn’t get a borderline call on the outside corner and the ump flat out missed a low strike. He seemed to have pretty good movement on the 4-seamer (-7.10″ average horizontal movement, which for comparison purposes almost as much as Medlen, a guy who relies almost exclusively on his movement, got on his 2-seamer last night). He certainly worked the corners effectively, only really giving up one well hit ball (that to McCann, who benefitted from being way ahead in the count thanks to the ump’s missed strike calls). You don’t have to throw 100mph if you can effectively work the ball inside and out.

He was almost too effective; 15 pitches to get through 2 innings meant he didn’t really work much of his repertoire. I’m sure he has at least a third pitch, but we never got to see it. Roark’s spot in the order was up, and he was out (as he was being pinch hit for, I wondered internally when the last time Roark got an at-bat was. Turns out he has 18PAs for Syracuse this summer; I didn’t realize the minor league pitchers got any at-bats).

It was hard not to like what we saw from him last night. Is he going to continue to be effective, can he stick in the majors? Hard to tell. Ian Krol giving up two hits and a walk in a third of an inning didn’t help his cause much, a similiarly ineffective appearance to his 7/31 outing. Fernando Abad has basically blown the last two games in which he’s appeared. But these two guys are blessed as being left-handers, so they possess value that a righty does not, and may not really be candidates to make way once Ohlendorf comes off the D/L. So we’ll see.

Meanwhile Tanner, use some of that MLB meal money to go get a haircut! 🙂

PS. One more thought on this series since i’ve got nowhere else to put it; I’m disappointed we didn’t see retaliation of some sort last night for the BS of the night before. I’m sorry; you HAVE to protect your best player out there, and i’m not surprised to hear reports and see evidence that Bryce Harper was on edge last night with his own manager. As J.P. Santangelo succinctly pointed out; not protecting one of your own players can and does blow up clubhouses. I think somebody on Atlanta needed to get hit last night (likely McCann). I’m more than a little worried right now about the state of the clubhouse, given this lack of reaction.

Written by Todd Boss

August 8th, 2013 at 7:34 am

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching

Tagged with andrelton simmons, bj upton, brian mccann, chris johnson, dan uggla, denard span, dirk hayhurst, fernando abad, ian krol, jordan zimmermann, kris medlen, ross detwiler, ross ohlendorf, tanner roark

How good is an “All Virginia” team?

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Is Virginia Native Justin Verlander the best ever player from the State? Photo unknown via rumorsandrants.com

Recently, I read a pundit who talked about how a huge percentage of baseball prospects come from relatively few states; California (mostly Southern California at that), Texas, Florida and Georgia. The Baseball America guys once talked about an “All North Carolina” team and how good it would be (BA is based in Durham, NC). It got me thinking: how good of a team could you put together of prospects with ties to Virginia? Having grown up in Virginia and having had the opportunity to play with and against a number of guys with pro ties over the years, I thought it’d be interesting to put together the “All Virginia Team.”

Using mostly the handy Baseball-reference pages, I looked up players who were either born in Virginia, went to a Virginia-based high school, or played baseball at one of Virginia’s universities. There’s also the fantastic Baseball Cube website (www.thebaseballcube.com) that has very in-depth player databases searchable by high schools that shows every player on a professional or NCAA team by school, which sometimes has better records than B-R.com. The players here had to be active in the Majors in 2012, though as it turned out there’s enough guys with Virginia ties to make a full starting team. Feedback is welcome.

Here’s a roster:

C: Brandon Inge (born and HS in Lynchburg, college at VCU)
1B: Mark Reynolds (HS in Virginia Beach, college at UVA)
2B: Will Rhymes (college at W&M)
SS: Ryan Zimmerman (HS in Virginia Beach, college at UVA)
3B: David Wright (born in Norfolk, HS in Chesapeake)
LF: Michael Cuddyer (born in Norfolk, HS in Chesapeake)
CF: B.J. Upton (born in Norfok, HS in Chesapeake)
RF: Justin Upton (born in Norfok, HS in Chesapeake)

Backups: Brandon Guyer OF (HS in Herndon, college at UVA), Rich Thompson OF (college at JMU), Jeff Baker Util (HS at Garfield in Woodbridge), Brandon Snyder IB/OF (HS at Westfields in Chantilly). Erik Kratz C (college at Eastern Mennonite)

Ok, so we’re a little weak up the middle. Zimmerman played SS in college but I can’t find a legitimate shortstop out there. Rhymes was just signed by the Nats to a minor league deal and isn’t likely to make the opening day 25-man roster save for injury. Inge hasn’t caught regularly in a few years. But how about the hitting prowness of this lineup? BJ Upton-Cuddyer-Zimmerman-Wright-Justin Upton-Reynolds is a pretty powerful group. Coincidentally, I put in Kratz because I find it amazing that someone who played baseball at Eastern Mennonite is actually in the big leagues. By B-R’s records, he’s the SOLE alumni of that university to have ever even played professional baseball.

Starting Pitchers:

Justin Verlander (born outside of Richmond, HS in Goochland, college at ODU)
Mat Latos (born in Alexandria)
Daniel Hudson (born in Lynchburg, HS in Virginia Beach, college at ODU)
Joe Saunders (born in Falls Church, HS at West Springfield, college at Va Tech)
Tim Stauffer (college at University of Richmond)

Backup starters: Danny Hultzen (born and raised in Bethesda, college at UVA); an exception to my “active in 2012” rule but clearly the most high-profile tied-to-Virginia prospect in the game right now. John Maine (born in Fredericksburg, HS in Stafford) had a decent stint starting for the Mets, but he’s yet to get back to the majors after a shoulder surgery in 2010).

A pretty good 1-2 punch, including arguably the best pitcher in the game. Hudson has some potential. Saunders is more of an innings eater lefty, but he’s made a pretty good career for himself already. Stauffer had elbow surgery in August 2012 and probably isn’t ready for opening day, but he’s the best I could find.

Relievers:

Bill Bray (born and HS in Va Beach, college at W&M)
Javier Lopez (HS at Robinson in Fairfax, college at UVA)
Michael Schwimer (born in Fairfax, HS at St. Stephens in Alexandria, college at UVA)
Sean Doolittle (college at UVA)
Sean Marshall (born and HS in Richmond, college at VCU)
Cody Eppley (college at VCU)
Sean Camp (born in Fairfax, HS at Robinson in Fairfax, college at GMU)

Backup Relievers: BJ Rosenberg (born in Newport News), Jeremy Jeffress (born and HS in South Boston), Clay Rapada (born in Portsmouth, HS in Chesapeake, college at Virginia State). Seth Greisinger (McLean and UVA) as an honorable mention.

Not bad depth here; I suppose Marshall could close, Bray be the loogy, Camp be an 8th inning guy, Eppley a 7th inning type and the rest be middle men. I like how Sean Camp was born, raised, went to high school and played baseball in college without ever leaving Fairfax.

Other random Virginia School trivia:

What’s the best producing college in Virginia? Pretty easily its UVA, with 117 pro players in B-R’s database and 30 guys reaching the majors. Virginia Tech, ODU, Richmond and VCU are all grouped a bit behind UVA in terms of pro player development. Amazingly little Liberty University has matriculated 59 players to the pro ranks.

At current, UVA has 6 active alumni in the majors. William & Mary, ODU and Richmond have 2 each, and a slew of lesser baseball-playing universities have one each (all of which are mentioned above).

What’s the best producing High School in Virginia? Pretty clearly the high schools in the Virginia Beach/Chesapeake area have been producing some serious baseball talent lately, but even the Upton brothers ended up going to different high schools. Both Virginia HS in Bristol and First Colonial HS in Virginia Beach list 8 pro player alumni with 2 pros each.

Closer to home in Northern Virginia: Garfield has 7 total players with Pro experience in the database, 3 of which have MLB experience. Robinson HS in Fairfax has 6 pros/3 MLB experience. Fairfax HS also has the same; 6 pros, 3 with MLB experience.

Of course, these numbers pale in comparison to some of the baseball factories in the major baseball-producing states Florida and California. Hillsborough HS in Tampa boasts 41 pro alumni and 10 with MLB experience, including Gary Sheffield, Dwight Gooden, Carl Everett and our own Elijah Dukes. Lakewood HS in Orange county has 57 pro alumni and 12 MLB experienced players, though not nearly of the name quality of Hillsborough’s graduates. Sarasota HS in Florida also boasts 57 pro player alumni, 14 MLB pros including our own Ian Desmond. There’s a HS in Oakland called McClymonds that has two Hall of Fame alumni (Frank Robinson and Ernie Lombardi), a host of other famous names from 60s and 70s but which hasn’t generated a pro player since the mid 1970s. Lastly Polytechnic HS in Long Beach has 47 pro alumni but an astonishing 18 guys with MLB experience, headlined by Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn and possibly future hall of famer Chase Utley.

Who is the Greatest player to have Virginia Roots? You could make arguments for Verlander, Wright, Zimmerman or the Upton brothers (probably in that order), but how about one Lou Whitaker, born in Brooklyn but somehow ended up matriculating from HS in Martinsville, Virginia, where he was drafted in the 5th round by Detroit. Billy Wagner (born in Tannersville, HS in Tazewell and college at Ferrum) is another guy from Virginia with a long, successful career. Long-time Oriole Al Bumbry was born in Fredericksburg, went to HS in King George and attended Virginia State.

However, there’s only one Hall of Famer with Virginia Roots that I can find: Eppa Rixley, born in Culpeper, HS in Charlottesville and he pitched for UVA before being signed as a free agent by Philadelphia. He ended up pitching 21 years in the majors and was selected to the Hall of Fame by the Veteran’s committee in 1963 shortly after he died.

(Post publishing note: in 2015 an enterprising blogger at the hallofverygood.com put together a list of the “best baseball player” from each of the 68 teams to make the *basketball* March Madness tournament, and for the Virginia schools he mentioned Rixley as well as others. A fun read).

(Editor’s Note: you may feel free to stop reading now; Below here is all pretty obscure stuff and only probably interesting to myself and my dad, or people who happen to grow up in the area and are familiar with Vienna baseball. In fact, I kind of got into a rat-hole of reminiscing for this section, thinking back to the good old days. I won’t be offended :-).

My Personal experiences growing up and playing in Northern Virginia: I played Vienna youth leagues from 1977 til 1989, played in Vienna Babe Ruth and graduated from James Madison HS in Vienna in 1989 for reference.

The best player from Northern Virginia in my youth experiences was one Pete Schourek, who was two years older than me and graduated from Marshall HS in 1987. An enduring memory from my youth was watching Schourek blast a home-run to the townhouses beyond the RF fence at Marshall against Mike Nielsen (the ace of my own high school) in 1987. Schourek turned down a scholarship offer to Auburn and took 2nd round bonus money from the Mets. Schourek’s career lasted 10 years in the majors and his best season was an 18-7 year that resulted in a 2nd place Cy Young finish. The word at the time was that the Dodgers wanted to draft him as a hitter; his power from the left-hand side was quite superior. I often wonder if his would have made it as a hitting prospect; he had such natural lefty power in high school. (Click here for the Connection’s Schourek profile in their “top 100 athletes” series from 2000).

Other notable pro players from the 3-4 year period right around my draft year who I played against at various points:

A.J. Hernandez, who was the star of the local Herndon/Reston/McLean Babe Ruth all-star teams that had Vienna’s number year after year in the late 80s. He played one year of low-A ball.
David Carroll, a tall, rangy left-hander who dominated Chantilly baseball for years. He was a 6th round pick in 1991 and made it to AAA before washing out. We played against Carroll’s teams in the Credit Union in the early 90s.
Lonnie Goldberg, who was on the same HS team as Schourek at one point; played at George Mason, drafted in the later rounds and played 5 seasons of minor league ball.
Bill Pulsipher, who was a dominant player in the area and was drafted in the 2nd Round by the Mets in 1991 out of Fairfax HS. He made the Mets rotation by age 21 and looked decent before getting injured and spending the rest of his MLB career struggling in the bullpen. His b-r.com page shows his drive; he was still playing professaional Indy ball as late as 2011. (Pulsipher Connection profile from 2000).
His 1991 Fairfax HS team also had one Brian Buchanan, who was a 1st round draft pick after attending UVA and played 5 years in the majors. Imagine; one high school team with a 1st and a 2nd round draft pick in this area. Amazingly Fairfax HS didn’t win anything more than its District during this time.
Robin Jennings: a 1990 graduate of Annandale who did a year of community college and the got drafted under the old Draft-and-Follow rules by the Cubs. He played in parts of four major league seasons spread across 12 minor league seasons, including his last minor league season with the Washington organization in 2007 at the age of 35, fully 4 years after last appearing in a uniform. I can’t specifically recall playing against Jennings like I can recall playing against these other guys though. Maybe in fall ball.
(post-publishing edit thanks to Tom Davis in the comments): Robinson slugger Steve Dunn. He absolutely deserves to be on this list somewhere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Dunn_(1990s_first_baseman). 1988 Robinson graduate, 4th round pick by Minnesota, he played parts of two seasons in 94 and 95. The Twins released him, he played one more AAA season for Cleveland (putting up decent numbers) but either quit or was released and not picked up again.

Goldberg and Schourek, along with Marshall’s #2 pitcher Steve Makranczy led Marshall to back-to-back state championship games in the late 80s. Steve played on a number of fall teams with me and still plays in the local DCMSBL league. Schourek still suits up for teams in the Industrial League, and according to a couple of random friends, plays in an ultra-competitive basketball league along side other former Division 1 players in the area.

Speaking of my own HS of the time; I was always amazed we didn’t fare better. Thinking back to 1988, my HS started an entire team of guys who either went pro or played division 1 somewhere. The 3 leading pitchers played at Radford, BYU and GMU respectively, our starting catcher went to BYU. Our 1B played at William & Mary. Our middle infield combo both played at UVA. Our 3rd baseman was a full ride player at NC State. In the OF, one guy played at GMU and went pro, another guy played at Montgomery College. That’s a LOT of talent on one HS team for this area, and they never advanced in the Regional tournament.

The best local player of my draft year (1989) was a fellow by the name of Doug Newstrom, born in Quantico and who went to HS at W.T. Woodson in Fairfax. He went to Arizona State and was a 7th round pick after his Junior year but never made the big leagues. Newstrom was the cornerstone of a Woodson team that went undefeated in 1989 and won the state championship (they also won in 1990). My personal experience playing against Newstrom; the fall-league baseball teams of that time period were essentially city-specific all-star teams of the guys who didn’t play football, and the competition was great. The Woodson varsity team to-be in the spring of 1989 got all their guys together to get a “test run” of their team and they romped to the fall league 16-18yr old championship game. Our Vienna-based team was a rag-tag collection of guys who attended Madison, Marshall, Oakton, Paul VI and O’Connell but who had Vienna zip codes, but we were good and we also reached the championship game. It was on a cold November day at Falls Church High School. We faced off against Woodson’s ace (Mark Bauch, the same guy who would go 13-0 the following spring en route to the Virginia State championship) and promptly knocked him out in the first inning without retiring a batter, racing to a 6-0 lead. Our pitcher (Jeff Ford, who attended Oakton and played college ball at a small school somewhere) tried to keep the Woodson team at bay throughout the 7 inning game, but they fought back. In the bottom of the 7th trailing 6-5 and with two outs, the Woodson team put a couple guys on and Newstrom came to bat. Newstrom connected on a towering drive to right field; I thought he had just hit a walk-off homer. Our right fielder (Steve Paasch, another Oakton graduate) reached over the RF fence, jumped and caught the ball for the 3rd out and the championship. It was one of the two or three best games I was ever a part of.

Editor Update: my memory apparently failed me: turns out Newstrom was actually a year behind me (he was born just a few months after me but was a school year behind). He led Woodson to a 2nd consecutive VA state title in 1990 before committing to ASU. I got a nice shout-out from one Rob Paine months after this post with a link to this great feature of Newstrom, with a great photo.

Best player from my high school Alma Mater (James Madison HS in Vienna): probably one Mike Wallace, who was picked straight out of high school, was in the majors by 22, and out of the majors by 26. Wallace seems like he should have played longer; he was a lefty with decent numbers both in the majors and in his final seasons in the minors. But he was retired at 28. He signed on with MASN as a baseball pundit in 2011. However it is worth mentioning one Jay Franklin, who graduated from Madison HS in 1971 and was the 2nd overall pick in that year’s baseball draft. Its hard to imagine a DC-local kid at this point in the evolution of the draft ever going higher, so Franklin likely holds the title for “highest ever local draft pick” for the forseeable future. He tore up the Northwoods league and earned a call-up to the majors as an 18 year old. I’m guessing he got hurt though, because he missed the entire 1972 season. He appeared in four more minor league years before retiring at age 24, having just reached AAA. Another guy who seems like he should have played longer.

Editor addition: thanks to anonymous comment for reminding us about Bobby Brower, whose baseball-reference.com page is missing the fact that he went to Madison HS. He was one heck of an athlete, earning FOUR varsity letters his senior year of HS. He attended Duke University, playing both football and baseball before focusing on hardball. Despite being an All-ACC selection, he went undrafted, got picked up by Texas and eventually fought his way to the major league team. He was traded to the Yankees after a couple years with Texas but struggled for playing time in New York, getting dropped back to AAA where he stayed through 1990. A brief comeback in 1992 went for naught and Brower retired at the age of 32. And I’ll add one Ronnie Slingerman, whose name keeps popping up during research of these early JMHS teams and who remains active in the Vienna baseball community.

Btw, the Fairfax Connection news papers featured all three of these players in their “Top 100 local Athletes” series done in the year 2000. Click here for Wallace, here for Franklin and here for Brower‘s bios, all three of which go in to much greater detail than I have here.

Baseball-reference.com’s records are somewhat spotty on my high school; they list only 7 pro players and 2 major leaguers from my HS, but we know there are several more with pro experience, just counting guys I’ve directly played with (among others; Chris Burr and Billy Emerson). BaseballCube lists 28 guys in their database, though not all played pro. David Driver with The Vienna Patch did an article on Wallace in October 2012 and discussed several other Madison grads who have made the majors, some of whom are not correctly attributed in B-R.com either. One such player is Jim McNamara, who I’m familiar with because he used to substitute teach while I was attending the high school and he was famous for being manipulated into wasting an entire period talking about his baseball playing days instead of teaching any material.

Best player ever from my college Alma Mater (James Madison University): probably one Billy Sample, born and raised in Roanoke and who played at JMU from 1974-1976. He was drafted in the 10th round, played for a decade or so and hung ’em up in 1986. Mike Venafro was born in Takoma Park, went to Paul VI in Fairfax and then JMU before putting together a 7-year career in the majors, retiring back in 2006. JMU is actually a pretty decent baseball school; we’ve made the NCAA tournament 11 times and several times recently, and made the College World Series in 1983 (getting blasted by eventual champion Texas and Stanford for a 2-and-out appearance; the wikipedia page is funny, JMU has no “notable players” listed. Coincidentally; look at some of the talent playing in that tournament: Bonds, Schiraldi, Clemens, Larkin, Sabo, McDowell, Incavilia. Three future Hall of Famers). However I can only find one JMU alumni who appeared in the majors in 2012; the aforementioned Rich Thomas, who appears to be a 4th/5th outfielder.

Best player I played with or against post youth/High School: After high school we played in a local amateur league for a year, then put together an entry into the Credit Union, which was a powerful amateur league in the area (which is now part of the Industrial League). After a brief baseball hiatus spent mostly playing softball (there was no 19+ league in DCMSBL at the time; you had to be at least 30 to play in the league for many years), I’ve been playing consistently in the DCMSBL since 1998.

In the early 90s, we had a local guy named Kevin Gallaher pitch for us periodically. He had Vienna roots, went to O’Connell and then played at St. Bonaventure (none of which btw is on his baseball-reference page but is on his baseball Cube page). I got to catch Gallaher here and there and he had pretty good stuff. Apparently his stuff got better his senior year at college and he was a non-drafted FA signee. Gallaher made it to AAA before calling it quits at age 29. His next move: to appear on the reality TV show “Married by America” (it didn’t work out: his bride-to-be left him at the alter).

In the Credit Union, we played against some serious talent, but I was too young to remember most of them. A couple notable names that I do remember were Steve Norwood, brother of the infamous Buffalo Bills kicker Jeff Norwood, who played alongside his father Del Norwood on the Apple team. Norwood was a local legend, a longtime coach at W&L in Arlington (he won 10 straight district titles in the 60s and 14 overall at the school; the field is named after him) and had to be in his 70s at the time but could still throw a knuckle-ball by the semi-pro calibre players of the Credit Union. Local legend amateur player Pete Groves pitched against us in the league; he now leads the Fedlock teams that have won many national MSBL titles (he supposedly reached AAA but I can’t find any records of him playing pro). We picked up a random guy off a wait list named John Bonfield who had pitched at Yale; he was one of the better pitchers i’ve ever played along side. He could throw 8 different pitches but had a failing for “enforcing the unwritten rules of the game” at the most unideal time. He once purposely hit a guy who he thought was stealing signs with the bases loaded in a close game.

In MSBL, the best players I played against didn’t necessarily have direct professional ties. The Gouveia siblings (brothers of former Redskin Kurt Gouveia were feared sluggers in the league). Garland Cooper was competitive against players half his age; he played in the Valley league but never pro. Ira Holland (who played college at Howard and was drafted before returning to school) was probably the most feared hitter in the league in the early 2000s; guys from that era still ask us about him. The ace pitcher of my current team Jason Martino signed out of HS but only played one year of rookie ball before getting set aside by his drafting team.

Anyway; if you’ve read this far, I hope you enjoyed my own little personal history of playing ball in this area.

Written by Todd Boss

January 9th, 2013 at 11:47 am

Posted in Baseball in General,Hall of Fame,Local Baseball

Tagged with aj hernandez, al bumbry, barry bonds, barry larkin, bill bray, bill pulsipher, billy emerson, billy sample, billy wagner, bj rosenberg, bj upton, bobby brower, brandon guyer, brandon inge, brandon snyder, calvin schiraldi, carl everett, chase utley, chris burr, chris sabo, clay rapada, cody eppley, daniel hudson, danny hultzen, david carroll, david driver, david wright, del norwood, doug newstrom, dwight gooden, elijah dukes, eppa rixley, erik kratz, ernie lombardi, frank robinson, garland cooper, gary sheffield, ian desmond, ira holland, jason martino, javier lopez, jay franklin, jeff baker, jeff ford, jeff norwood, jeremy jeffress, jim mcnamara, joe saunders, john bonfield, john maine, justin upton, justin verlander, kevin gallaher, kurt gouveia, lonnie goldberg, lou whitaker, mark bauch, mark reynolds, mat latos, michael cuddyer, michael schwimer, mike nielsen, mike venafro, mike wallace, oddibe mcdowell, pete groves, pete incavilia, pete schourek, rich thompson, robin jennings, roger clemens, ronnie slingerman, ryan zimmerman, sean camp, sean doolittle, sean marshall, seth greisinger, steve dunn, steve makranczy, steve norwood, steve paasch, tim stauffer, tony gwynn, will rhymes

Ladson’s inbox 12/11/12

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LaRoche; Staying or going? Photo Rob Carr/Getty Images via bleacherreport.com

Hey, everybody’s doing inbox responses this week. Here’s Bill Ladson‘s latest inbox column, dated 12/11/12.

As always, I write the response here before reading his, and sometimes edit questions for clarity.

Q: Are you pleased with the Denard Span trade? Or do you think the Nats should have tried to sign Michael Bourn?

A: My thoughts are pretty clear on the Denard Span trade; in a sentence, I didn’t think we needed to make the trade, but the deal we struck was fair. If it comes down to Span versus Michael Bourn, there’s no question in my mind you go with Span; Bourn wants too much money, is older, they’re roughly equivalent in terms of UZR/150, and Bourn has lesser career batting stats (104 OPS+ career for Span versus 90 for Bourn). I think there’s a reason that BJ Upton signed and most teams with CF needs/wants have solved them (Phillies and Ben Revere, Giants and re-signing Angel Pagan, Braves and Upton, Nats and Span, etc) and Bourn still sits unsigned; he and his super-agent Scott Boras are over-valuing his services. Ladson says he likes Span for his contract and his age versus Bourn.

Q: Why are the Nats thinking about getting rid of a 30-homer, 100-RBI guy in Adam LaRoche?

A: First, lets be fair; the Nats are “not getting rid” of the Free Agent Adam LaRoche; he’s a free agent and can sign anywhere he chooses. Maybe LaRoche is tired of the humidity in Washington and wants to find a team closer to home. Maybe his wife really likes the Pacific Northwest and he’s looking to move to Seattle. Ok seriously; the problem with LaRoche is simply his age; yes he was 30/100 THIS year; what will he do next year? More importantly, what would he do 3 years from now when he’s 35 and earning $15M/year or so? That’s the risk in any FA contract for someone in his 30s, and these types of contracts have a tendency to add up and really hamstring your budgets. Just look at the Yankees and Phillies right now; think the Phillies wish they had about $50M in payroll flexibility to improve their .500 team? The team really doesn’t want to commit more than a couple years, but at LaRoche’s age this is really his last shot at a big-time, life altering guaranteed contract. He really needs to get as much guaranteed money as he can. If the Red Sox give him a 3year guaranteed contract, he really needs to take it. Ladson states the obvious; Nats offering 2 years, LaRoche wants 3.

Q: Who will be the Nats’ second baseman in 2013 — Danny Espinosa or Steve Lombardozzi?

A: Danny Espinosa. The team showed patience waiting for Ian Desmond to turn it around and seem likely to do the same with Espinosa. Now, if it were me, I wouldn’t mind cashing in Espinosa’s defensive stature and 20-home run prowness and shed his 190Ks/season to obtain some farm system depth and just live with Steve Lombardozzi playing 2nd and batting 8th, but there’s really no reason to do that right now. Espinosa is at MLB minimum and may make the leap; and Lombardozzi may really just be a utility/backup infielder type. Ladson predicts a gold glove and an All-Star appearance for Espinosa. That made me chuckle. He’s very optimistic.

Q: What does the Span trade mean for the future of Tyler Moore? Moore has good pop and belongs in the everyday lineup.

A: Well, clearly the Span acquisition means that Tyler Moore is at best looking at another season of backup at-bats. What is more important to Moore is what happens with LaRoche/Michael Morse. Because those are the blockers to Moore getting actual playing time right now. Moore’s production last season was great for a first year guy; .840 OPS, 124 OPS+, a 22 home run full season pace. He hit righties better than lefties, which fares well for his maturation as a hitter. But there’s just no room for him right now. I suspect he may be trade bait if the team signs LaRoche to a 3year deal, just as Morse will be. Ladson states the obvious; Moore will come off the bench this year.

Q: Who will be the Nationals’ starting catcher on Opening Day?

A: Great question. I’d go with Kurt Suzuki for now, until hearing how Wilson Ramos‘ recovery is going. Remember, Ramos had to have two knee surgeries last summer; I don’t think its a guarantee that he’s ready opening day. Ladson agrees, saying the team is taking it slow w/ Ramos.

Q: Do you think Michael Morse is a defensive liability in the outfield? If LaRoche signs with the Nats, what impact will that have on Morse?

A: Yes he’s a defensive liability in LF. But I don’t mind having a 30 homer defensive liability in left. But I’m not the GM of the Nationals who seems dead set on replacing all sub-par defenders on his roster. If LaRoche signs, it pretty clearly means an imminent trade of Morse, since it makes little sense to have his bat sitting in a backup capacity. Ladson doesn’t think he’s as big of a liability in LF as I do, pointing out that Morse seemed like he was playing hurt at the end of the season.

Q: What will the Nats do with Chien-Ming Wang?

A: Nothing. Chien-Ming Wang is a free agent and can sign anywhere he wants. If the Nats give him another dollar of guaranteed money I’ll be furious. Ladson says he’s not coming back and may not sign til mid-season, ala Roy Oswalt.

Written by Todd Boss

December 12th, 2012 at 11:01 am

Posted in Chat/Mailbag Responses,Nats in General

Tagged with adam laroche, alex meyer, angel pagan, ben revere, bill ladson, bj upton, chien-ming wang, danny espinosa, denard span, kurt suzuki, michael bourn, michael morse, roy oswalt, scott boras, steve lombardozzi, tyler moore, wilson ramos

Span for Meyer; Understand it but don’t entirely like it

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The team gets the lead-off hitter it has needed for years in Denard Span. Photo Bruce Kluckhohn/Minnesota Twins via twitter

At least Nats fans can start understanding the team’s off-season plans a little more clearly now. The first domino has fallen. The Nats acquired Denard Span from Minnesota for Alex Meyer yesterday.

I’ve argued against a center field acquisition for a while now. Here’s three primary reasons why:

1. I don’t feel the Nats needed a center fielder. Bryce Harper put up a 17.6 UZR/150 in 715+ innings while showing a plus-plus arm (both statistically and for any casual observers). He’s just turning 20. There is no reason to think he cannot ably patrol center for at least the next few years. I’ve used this analogy before, but I feel like its the Yankees approaching Mickey Mantle after his first season in center and saying, “Hey Mick, we like you in center but we have this barely above league average guy At least until point #2 possibly comes to play:

2. Brian Goodwin, along with Destin Hood, Eury Perez, Michael Taylor and any other marginal OF prospect the team has is now effectively blocked for at least the next 3 years and possibly longer. Span is signed through 2014 (with a very affordable 2015 option), Jayson Werth signed through 2017, and Harper is under team control through at least 2017. There’s your outfield for the next 3 years guaranteed, 2/3rds of which is locked up for the next 5. I just feel that the better path would have been to let Harper play CF until Goodwin or Perez seems ready (clearly Godwin is an upper-end prospect who has impressed ever since he was drafted, and the team didn’t add Perez to their 40-man roster just to give him the extra salary) and just make do with a slugger in left field.

3. The loss of Alex Meyer represents the best healthy starter arm in the entire system, a system which is becoming thinner and thinner (with this trade on the backs of the Gio trade I’d guess the Nats are now going to be in the bottom 5 farm systems when rankings start coming out). You can argue whether or not Meyer was going to stick as a starter (see the “bright side” points below), but inarguably this weakens the farm system in general and further weakens a specific problem that may pop up sooner than later; starting pitcher depth. If one of our big 4 suffers a spring training injury, it is difficult to see who may step up and be counted on for starts.

This move clearly forces the Nationals hand on Michael Morse, and now the team may end up negotiating from a point of weakness if they need to move him. The decision path for the team now is clearly “Morse or LaRoche” at first base. If the team does bring back Adam LaRoche suddenly Morse is without a lineup spot and his trade value diminishes quickly. If the rumors are true that LaRoche is “only” seeking a 3 year deal, the Nats should stumble over themselves to offer him a 3 year deal (3yrs $40M seems more than fair based on what LaRoche did for us last year) and lock up the plus-defender/middle of the order bat.

This move also cannot be a happy day for Tyler Moore; he’s clearly set on being a backup now in 2013 no matter what happens with Morse/LaRoche, despite promising numbers in 2012. Well, unless the team fails to re-sign LaRoche AND moves Morse (which I suppose is still possible but would make little sense), which would then install Moore as the every day first baseman. Between Moore, Morse possibly being out of a position and Goodwin being blocked for years to come, you have to think we’re going to see some more moves involving these players (hopefully to acquire a starter, or some starter depth in the minors).

Now, on the bright side (since I’ve been accused of being too negative in my analysis), I will say the following:

1. We did not give up a ton for Span. I like Meyer, but I’m afraid he may not stick as a starter. The scouting knock on him has always related to his tall frame and repeatability of his delivery. He has a funky leg kick and slightly weird mechanics, further muddying the waters. Lastly he’s a huge guy and he (at first glance in videos) seems to really throw standing up and doesn’t use a ton of his lower body. All of this spells “reliever” in his future. If Meyer tops out as a fireballing reliever, this trade looks even better.

2. Span inarguably fills a need; a high OBP leadoff hitter. He’s a .357 career OBP guy with speed and who hits lefty, a nearly perfect fit for what this lineup needs at the top. Leadoff hitters generally come from one of three positions: CF, SS and 2B. If the team decided it NEEDED a leadoff guy, and with Desmond and Espinosa locked into the SS and 2B slots for the time being, clearly the only place the team could go was a center-fielder. The USAToday article linked at the top said it best (paraphrasing): this move is as if you bought a new chair for your living room, which forced you to have to move around your furniture. You didn’t necessarily need the new chair, but it certainly makes your living room look better. This move enables Werth to move further down in the lineup and return to his power stroke.

3. We didn’t spend good money after bad on BJ Upton or Michael Bourn, who’s 5yr/$75M demands would have been a real waste of money. Span’s contract is great: 5yrs for $16.5M guaranteed plus a $9M option in 2015. The Nats acquired a desired resource without appreciably increasing payroll, allowing them to focus (perhaps) on a FA starter.

Initial reaction to the trade in the Baseball World seems mixed, which is great since it probably indicates that this is a pretty fair trade all in all. Keith Law doesn’t like it of course, but that’s because Law believes every low-minors big arm is turning into Justin Verlander (Law also thought the Gio Gonzalez trade was a “huge win” for Oakland because they got AJ Cole, the same AJ Cole who put up a 7.82 ERA in high-A this year and was forced to repeat Low-A). Meanwhile Dave Cameron calls this a “huge win” for Washington, focusing on Span’s numbers and mentioning the same concerns about Meyer that I do. Rob Neyer pays a complement to Mike Rizzo and the Nats and says the team is well-positioned for several years. Ken Rosenthal talks about the about-face the franchise has done in the last 3 years in the eyes of potential Free Agents, specifically Zack Greinke, who declined the Nats trade offer 2 years ago but now could be the final piece in building a juggernaut.

Coincidentally, those who think this moves Harper to LEFT field may be mistaken. Werth’s defense in right has inarguably slipped (he posted a -14.2 UZR/150 in right this year, a significant drop from his previous decent-to-good seasons there). I think Harper should play right field, with his gun for an arm protecting against 1st-to-3rd runners while Werth should immediately put up great UZR numbers in left. Possible lineup in 2013 (assuming for now that LaRoche is leaving):

Span (L) – CF
Werth (R) -LF
Zimmerman (R) – 3B
Harper (L) – RF
Morse (R) – 1B
Desmond (R) – SS
Espinosa (S) – 2B
Suzuki (R) – C
Pitcher.

L-R-R-L-R-R-S-R for good balance. I could also see Desmond and Werth switching spots in the lineup. Harper to cleanup may be a bit early, but without adding another lefty bat the lineup could have too many right-handed hitters in a row.

Now, what if LaRoche re-signs? Then suddenly this lineup has pretty good balance. With LaRoche in the fold i’d probably go like this:

Span (L) – CF
Werth (R) -LF
Harper (L) – RF
Zimmerman (R) – 3B
LaRoche (L) – 1B
Desmond (R) – SS
Espinosa (S) – 2B
Suzuki (R) – C
Pitcher.

That’d be a slight modification over where these guys hit last year, but would give nearly perfect lefty-righty balance.

In the end, you have to give up something you value to get something you value. The Nats made a good trade, despite my thinking they didn’t need to make the trade in the first place. They’re an improved team on the field for 2013.

Written by Todd Boss

November 30th, 2012 at 11:31 am

Who still thinks the Nats will pursue a CF in the off-season?

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Harper has turned into a very good defensive CF. Photo Gary Vasquez/US Presswire via Natsinsider.com

Jim Bowden was the latest pundit to repeat the often-mentioned mantra “The Nats need a Center Fielder,” but this isn’t entirely a “pick on Jim Bowden” post. Most pundits think the Nats are still in love with BJ Upton or newly in love with Michael Bourn and will aggressively pursue one or the other this coming off-season. Now, that tired statement may have been true in the 2011 off-season, but anyone who still prints this now hasn’t been watching what has been going on in the Nats outfield this season.

To put it simply; Bryce Harper has turned into a very good defensive center fielder. And there’s no reason to move him off the position for a number of years.

It only took about a week for rumors of Harper’s arm to circulate around the league; within a week or so 3rd base coaches were already playing it conservatively and refused to challenge his arm. It only took a couple of Sportscenter highlight throws from the outfield to earn that praise. Harper has 3 outfield assists on the year and probably won’t get too many more given the reputation he’s already earned.

But his arm is just one part of the equation. Click here for the advanced fielding measure “UZR/150” for all 2012 center-fielders with at least 500 innings played. Harper currently possesses a 28.6 UZR/150, good for 2nd in the league and far above vaunted defensive outfield wizard (and fellow Rookie phenom) Mike Trout. In fact, he’s just ahead of Bourn and only behind reserve outfielder Craig Gentry. To put this into english; right now Harper is just about the best defensive center field in the league. He’s very fast, shows great range on the ball, and his errors have generally been on over-aggressive throws instead of dropped balls.

By way of UZR/150 comparison, Bourne is clearly a top defender, but the other rumored target Upton actually boasts a -1.3 UZR/150 right now, indicating that he’s actually costing his team runs.

The common narrative is that the Nats want a lead-off/center fielder type so they can move Harper to one corner and Jayson Werth the other and have a plus outfield all the way around. But lets face it; that’d be a monumental waste of Harper’s defensive talents right now. An .850 OPS hitting center fielder with 30 homer capabilities is one of the rarest commodities in baseball, and usually good ones only come around once in a generation. We already knew Harper was such a generational talent, but even I was surprised to see just how well statistically he has played CF thus far. Do the Nats need a prototypical lead-off hitter? Yes …. but not as long as Werth is willing to be in that role. Here’s a fact; Werth has an OBP of .426 hitting lead-off this year, which would be the 2nd best OBP in the league (behind the amazing Joey Votto) if he qualified. When you have almost an entire lineup of guys who have 20-hr power, someone has to bat lead-off.

The other problem with the “Nats get a free agent CF” scenario is that it leaves no room in the outfield for Michael Morse. Buying another outfielder pushes Morse to 1B, which pushes Adam LaRoche out the door. Now, this scenario may happen regardless (LaRoche absolutely should parlay his 2012 season into a multi-year FA deal, or at least explore the possibility), but I’d rather have the positional flexibility to give someone like Tyler Moore more starts, or to give the resurgent Roger Bernadina starts against right-handed starters, or even keep LF the rotating door between Moore, Bernadina and Lombardozzi so that all three valuable players can get playing time. And if you don’t think the team really wants to give Moore playing time, then you havn’t been paying attention to his season.

Lastly there’s this: spending money on an unneeded CF means less money to spend on pieces that we WILL need; money towards either Edwin Jackson or his rotational replacement, money towards some bullpen reinforcements, or perhaps money to extend a trade target that we leverage to free up some positional log-jams (middle infield for example, between our current starters and the upper-end reinforcements on the way in the high minors).

There’s been comparisions of Harper to the vaunted Mickey Mantle in the past; if Harper sticks in CF for the next decade, those comparisons will just be all the more viable.

Written by Todd Boss

September 13th, 2012 at 9:45 am

Posted in Baseball in General,Nats in General

Tagged with adam laroche, bj upton, bryce harper, craig gentry, edwin jackson, jayson werth, jim bowden, joey votto, michael bourn, michael morse, mickey mantle, mike trout, roger bernadina, steve lombardozzi, tyler moore

Rays not exactly Fundamental

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After watching the Nats take 2 of 3 from the Rays this week, I’m left with one major thought: The Rays are one of the worst fundamental baseball teams I’ve seen play here. For all the rumors of how Joe Maddon is a genius, his team certainly made mistake after mistake defensively. Just in the 3rd inning of the game tonight they made three basic defensive mistakes:

– BJ Upton failed to properly prepare himself to throw home after catching a sac fly and was (for some inexplicable reason) surprised to see Danny Espinosa tagging up and scoring easily.

– Carlos Pena took a cut-off throw and failed to pay any attention to Ian Desmond, who alertly scampered to 2nd base without a throw.

– Matt Moore didn’t pay frankly any attention to Espinosa while on second base, allowing a double steal to occur, both runners of which eventually scored and proved to be the lead-changing runs that turned the game.

The Rays are the 2nd worst team in terms of errors in the league. There’s specific questions about the constant shifts put in play by Maddon against players not necessarily known as pull hitters. Their current third basemen situation is atrocious; a throwing error in the first game, a simple catch missed in the 2nd game (when Bryce Harper ran from 2nd on a ball to the shortstop) and a fielding error in the 3rd game. Yes I know they’re missing Evan Longoria … but the Nats are missing their highest paid player right now too in Jayson Werth. And, they clearly are pushing the limits of the rulebook as evidenced by the Joel Peralta pine-tar incident.

The Rays were probably lucky to avoid the sweep frankly; they got a win with their ace David Price giving up 4 runs in 7 innings while our soon-to-be-demoted #5 starter Chien-Ming Wang conspired to give away a game possibly for the last time for this team as a starter.

Seems to me the Rays need to tighten up their professionalism.

Written by Todd Boss

June 21st, 2012 at 11:09 pm

Posted in Baseball in General

Tagged with bj upton, bryce harper, carlos pena, chien-ming wang, danny espinosa, david price, evan longoria, ian desmond, jayson werth, joe maddon, joel peralta, matt moore

Nationals Arm Race

Archive for the ‘bj upton’ tag

A history of Pitchers taken #1 overall

Qualifying Offers; are they working?

Ranking Baseball’s General Managers

Ask Boswell 2/18/14 Edition

First Look: Tanner Roark

How good is an “All Virginia” team?

Ladson’s inbox 12/11/12

Span for Meyer; Understand it but don’t entirely like it

Who still thinks the Nats will pursue a CF in the off-season?

Rays not exactly Fundamental

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