Nationals Arm Race

Stanton is your defending champ .. and one heck of a slugger. Photo unk via rantsports.com

I know some think the HR derby is a sham.  However I like it, I love the new format (timed instead of by outs), and the results speak for themselves; by some accounts tickets for the HR derby are going for more money than the All Star Game itself.  And this year seems rather compelling, with the defending champ and inarguable holder of the league’s current title of ‘Best slugger” in Giancarlo Stanton the #1 seed in his home town, set to hopefully face off against the #2 seed Aaron Judge, who is busy setting Statcast exit velocity speed records and running away with both the AL MVP and Rookie of the Year award (last time someone’s done that?  Ichiro Suzuki in his “rookie” year in Seattle).

So we know they got Stanton and Judge right; who else is in this year’s tourney and who *should* have been there?

Here’s a link to the 2017 HR Bracket.   Your seeds are:

1. Giancarlo Stanton
2. Aaron Judge
3. Cody Bellinger
4. Mike Moustakas
5. Miguel Sano
6. Charlie Blackmon
7. Justin Bour (shout out to the Westfields HS and George Mason alumni Bour!  Also worth noting; he was a 25th round pick; bully for Bour to even be in the majors, let alone slugging his way onto the national stage)
8. Gary Sanchez

I’m with Logan Morrison here: half field makes no sense compared to who *should* be in.  In my perfect world, here’s who i’d have in the tourney.  This is a combination of looking at the 2016 HR Derby field,  2017 home run leader board, the 2017 hit tracker longest home run list, the Statcast exit velocity/average HR length figures, and my own personal opinion.

By Seed:

1. Giancarlo Stanton; defending champ and clear #1 seed.
2. Aaron Judge: 2017 HR leader
3. Mark Trumbo: last year’s #1 seed and was a monster in the derby.
4. Bryce Harper: perhaps a homer pick, but he’s clearly a masher of the ball and deserves to be in this tourney.  He turned it down yet again in 2017.  I don’t know why.
5. Kris Bryant: A Harper-Bryant first round would be just like their school-boy days in Las Vegas.
6. George Springer: 2nd in the league in homers right now.
7. Kris Thames: great reclamation story, has 20+ homers in his return to the majors.
8. Cody Bellinger: the LA rookie has had nearly as impressive a breakout season as Judge.

If I could go 9-16, I’d probably throw in guys from this list:

• Yoenis Cespedes: his prior HR Derby wins were legendary
• Justin Bour: he can put a hurt on the ball
• Kyle Schwarber: I love the look on his face when he really mashes one.
• Joey Gall0: another power-first guy who can really back into one.
• Miguel Sano: a deserving participant this year.
• Marcelle Ozuna: can’t believe this guy is playing CF for the Marlins.
• Paul Goldschmidt: he’s definitely one of the elite home run hitters in the league.
• Mike Trout: people don’t think of him as a slugger … but he’s got his fair share of 480-foot moon shots on his resume (yes I know he’s injured right now; this is my “theoretical” derby!)

And in the “not a young whipper snapper anymore” division, I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing any of these guys in an expanded field:

• Mike Napoli; just for the beard.
• Nelson Cruz: believe it or not, he’s the league leader in homers for the past three 3+ seasons inclusive, by a sizeable margin over #2.
• Edwin Encarnacion: #2 behind Cruz in total homers; I know he’s having a down year after leaving Toronto but he’s still a slugger and a half.
• Chris Davis: you don’t just fall into 50+ home run seasons.
• Jose Bautista: for the bat flips and ensuing brawls
• Mark Reynolds: this era’s version of Adam Dunn
• Albert Pujols: only makes sense to have the active HR leader in the field.

What do you think?  Did I miss anyone obvious?

Oh a prediction: I like the two top seeds to advance, with Stanton beating Judge in an anti-climactic final.

Who would you rather have? Photo AP via mlb.com

One thing that continually pops up in baseball analysis conversations is “the narrative.”  Today’s narrative to address: Asdrubal Cabrera is the solution for the Nat’s 2015 second base “problem.”

Here’s the 2014 stat lines for both Cabrera and Danny Espinosa:

Espinosa’s prolific strike-out rate drives down his OPS+ figure.  Otherwise, he’s basically a small step down from Cabrera’s performance on the season.  But we’re not exactly talking about world-changing offense from Cabrera at the plate: a .229 BA with a bit of power.

Here’s some more quickie stats that will illuminate things.  Lets talk about their defense.  If we’re saying that Cabrera was a superior defender, here’s the 2B-only defensive stats for both players (UZR/150 and total Zone via fangraphs, DRS via either site, FRAA via baseballprospectus.com):

So, across the board Espinosa statistically was a better defender than Cabrera.  You can make the argument that Cabrera was playing out of position; I can make the argument that Espinosa’s full-season stats have been even better than this (he is an elite defender year over year).

Lastly; contract status:

I dunno. If someone said that the team should go out of its way to ensure they have a switch-hitting, slick fielding second baseman who can hit .220 … I’d say to you, “we already have him.”  And he’s pretty cheap.   And under team control for 3 more years, for a combined salary that’ll be less than one year Cabrera will fetch on the open market.

In reality, with a weak SS free agent market, Cabrera is going to get over-paid by someone to go back to short, despite his saying publicly that he likes Washington and wants to stay, so maybe this is all moot.  I’m not necessarily saying that Espinosa is the solution at 2B either: I think the team has found its Jamie Carroll for the next 3 years; a guy who can play either middle-infield position off the bench who switch hits.  I’ve seen rumors that the Nats will go shopping on the FA market: of course, the available player list isn’t exactly inspiring.  I’ve seen other rumors that the Nats will work the trade market; that’s impossible to project or guess, but Texas’ glut of middle infielders does present an opportunity (they have Elvis Andrus ensconsed at short, Rougned Odor at second, but have uber-prospect Jurickson Profar ready to play as soon as he’s healthy).  Oh, they also have a huge corner infield problem coming too, with Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder under contract for years to come but minor-league homer leading 3B Joey Gallo not really needing to prove much at AA any longer.  I like the trade matchup (NL East to AL West) but can the GMs come to an agreement on something?

Or maybe just maybe Espinosa gets talked into giving up hitting lefty (career slash line: .271/.343/.460 for a career .804 OPS figure, which by way of comparison is slightly better than the OPS figure that MVP candidate Josh Donaldson put up in 2014.

Yeah, I’d take that out of my #8 hitter, while putting up good defense at 2nd and proving injury-coverage at short.