Nationals Arm Race

Updated for the 2019 draft

In 2018, just four players from the top 10 rounds failed to come to terms with their drafting team.  This was slightly higher than the previous couple of seasons, but interesting this year because all four non-signing players were basically the same situation: high-end 1st round prep players with big price tags who in the end each turned down at least $2M each (and in some cases a ton more) to go off to school and lock themselves in for 3 years of playing for unaccountable, arm shredding, self-interested NCAA coaches who often could care less about player development and more about their next conference title and regional hosting bid.

And each of them probably made a huge mistake.

Its a common refrain among pundits in the amateur baseball world (Keith Law in particular) that HS players should “take the money” if they’re drafted high enough.   Certainly any first rounder would be a fool to turn away that kind of money, and mostly any prep player offered something in the upper 6 figure range should give serious consideration.  MLB contracts generally include college tuition … so even if you sign out of HS you still have 4 years fully paid for in case you wash out.  So instead of gambling on your health, or the fickleness of the baseball draft (where one bad start can cost you 30 spots in the draft and millions of dollars), take the cash when its offered.

But, don’t take our word for it.  Lets look at the empirical evidence of every player over the past seven drafts who has forgone the cash to see if there’s any trends.

Here’s a summary of the last few years of players who did not sign from the top 10 rounds.  This only goes back to 2012, since that’s the beginning of the new draft rules.

• 2021: 3
• 2020: ?
• 2019: 2
• 2018: 4 (all 1st or supp-1st rounders)
• 2017: 3
• 2016: 2
• 2015: 6
• 2014: 6 (two of which were Nats picks: Andrew Suarez and Austin Byler in that ill-fated draft class, and one more who didn’t sign thanks to Houston’s screwing up the Brady Aiken deal and who was eventually granted free agency).
• 2013: 8
• 2012: 8

These are the total non-signings for the top ten ROUNDS of draftees, meaning anywhere between 300 and 350 guys comprising the top 10 rounds and supplementals.  So in the seven years and roughly 2200 players drafted in the top 10 rounds in the last 7 seasons, a grand total of 37 have failed to sign.

Side note: each year we hear about all these players who aren’t going to sign or that negotiations are tough, when in reality the modern CBA rules nearly guarantee 100% signing among drafted players (unless there’s a huge misunderstanding on draft day, or a huge disagreement about medicals).  The draft pools are structured so that the penalties for NOT signing players can cascade and affect your ability to sign other players  (see Houston’s issue in the 2014 draft), so teams are now basically calling players in advance and saying, “If we draft you at X, will you sign for $Y?” … so the only reason players don’t sign is if there’s a serious breakdown or mis-understanding.

So, why do i say that you should always take the money?  Well, lets ask ourselves: out of these 37 players who didn’t sign.. who actually IMPROVED their draft status by not signing?  Lets go year by year and look at the players who failed to sign.

(a caveat here: I did not look at the dollar amounts offered here; this is basically draft round analysis.  Its possible that a 5th rounder in one year went in the 8th the next and got offered more money … but its quite rare with the new draft rules and bonus pools.  Everything changed with the new CBA that went into effect in 2012.  The Nats in particular spent $14.6M on draft bonuses in 2011.  The next  year?  $4.6M, with most of it going to one player in Lucas Giolito).

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2021: 3 players did not sign from the top 10 rounds:

• Kumar Rocker, RHP Vanderbilt, in a well publicized blow-up, the Mets drafted Rocker 10th overall and made a huge splash announcing a $6M over-slot bonus .. then ran into issues with his medicals, resulting in the two sides failing to agree on anything and the Mets passing on the Vanderbilt star altogether.  Rocker’s agent (ahem, “advisor”) Scott Boras of course refused to make his medicals available ahead of time, and of course claimed that there was no injury, but the damage is now done.  Rocker cannot go back to school, and will likely go to independent ball to re-enter the draft in 2022.
• Jud Fabian, OF Florida; saw his draft stock fall from a possible top-5 pick all the way out of the first round.  But, he apparently had a $3M deal with some team in the second, but those plans were foiled when Boston selected him at the beginning of the 2nd round.  Fabian stuck to his bonus demands, and the two sides could not reach an agreement.  Fabian will go back to school.
• Alex Ulloa, prep SS from Texas failed to come to terms with Houston as a 4th round pick.  He’s Oklahoma State committed, but rumblings he may go Juco to re-enter the draft in 2022.

Verdict: Its hard to believe Rocker will be able to beat $6M, but who knows.  Fabian will lose leverage coming back in 2022 as a senior, and Ulloa will have some time to improve on his 4th round bonus dollars.

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2020: in a shortened 5-round Covid-related draft, not one player picked in the 5 rounds failed to sign.

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2019: 2 players did not sign from the top 10 rounds

• Brandon Sproat, RHP Fla HS 7th/205 overall by Texas.  $222,100 slot value, which wasn’t enough to buy Sproat out of his commitment to Florida.
• Wyatt Hendrie, C from Calif Juco 10th/312 overall by Chicago Cubs.  $142,200 slot value.  Cubs seemingly ran into slot issues with both 10th and 11th rounder, and Hendrie wouldn’t take under slot.

Verdict: both players are still in College as of mid 2021; Hendrie was draft eligible in the shortened 2020 draft but was not taken and is now enrolled at San Diego State, presumably not eligible until 2022.

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2018: 4 players did not sign

• Carter Stewart, RHP Fla HS. 1st/8th overall. Atlanta didn’t like Physical, offered 40% of slot value ($1.9M); initially slated to Mississippi State.  Update: However, he did an about face, went to a Juco instead with the plan on re-entering the 2019 draft.  When he struggled in Juco and fell to a mid 2nd round projection … he attempted an end-around of the MLB draft rules and signed to play in japan, a situation I detailed in this space.  2021 update: he has graduated the Japan minor leagues into the majors at this point but has not found his foothold there yet.
• Matt McLain: 2B Calif HS. 1st/25: Asked $3M, Arizona offered $2.6M didn’t budge, going to UCLA.  Update: picked 17th overall in the 2021 draft and signed for $4.63M.
• JT Ginn: RHP Miss HS. 1st/30th: LA dodgers offered $2.4M, asking $2.9M, going to Mississippi State.  Update: drafted 2nd round/52nd overall in 2020 draft, signed for $2.9M with the Mets in a well over-slot deal.  So two years later he got his asking number.
• Gunnar Hoglund: LHP Fla HS. 1supp/36: Pittsburgh didn’t like physical, low-balled and he declined. going to Ole Miss.  2021; was projected as a top 10 pick, hurt his arm, had TJ but still got drafted 19th overall by Toronto and signed for $3.25M.

McLean drastically improved his stock, Ginn got what he wanted, and Hoglund (despite his injury) got paid.  I already detailed why I think Stewart’s deal is smart.

Verdict: All four made the right decision.

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2017: 3 players did not sign

• Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Oregon State, 1s/31st overall. Failed to sign with Tampa, who (I guess) didn’t like his medicals.  He was coming back from TJ and only had a few weeks of action before the draft. Went 6th round in 2018 to Milwaukee in 2018
• Jack Conlon, RHP, Clements HS (Sugar Land, Texas). 4th round/128 overall. Failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Texas A&M.  Update: left TAMU, went to San Jacinto, then enrolled in Rice and sat out 2020.  However, he wasn’t on the 2021 roster, and its unclear where he’s playing at this point.
• Jo Jo Booker, RHP, Miller HS (Brewton, Ala.). 5th round/145 overall. failed to sign with LA Angels, with to South Alabama.  Was not drafted in 2020 or 2021 out of USA; unclear if he will return for a 5th season or if he is done.

Two players who ended up playing themselves out of any bonus dollars.  Rasmussen didn’t turn down the Rays as much as they refused to tender him a contract … they must have tendered him something because they got a comp pick in 2018 draft.  So he turned down 40% of first round money in 2017 to sign an under-slot deal in the 6th round of 2018 ($135k, just $10k more than the non-top 10 rounds minimum).  I’d say this was a bad move by the player unless Tampa flat out refused to pay a dollar.

Verdict: 1 worsened his draft position, 2 missed out on any draft money.

2016: 2 players did not sign

• Nick Lodolo: 1S/41st overall; LHP from Damien HS in California. failed to sign with Pittsburgh, went to TCU instead, draft eligible in 2019.  In 2021, drafted 7th overall, signed for $5.43M.
• Tyler Buffett: 7th/217 overall; RHP, failed to sign with Houston. returned to Oklahoma State, drafted in 6th round in 2017 and signed with Cincinnati

Lodolo went to school (an arm-shredder program in TCU even) and went from 41st overall to 7th overall, with probably 3x the bonus.  Furthermore, by 2021 he was one of the best pitching prospects in the game.  Meanwhile Buffett improved his draft position one round by going back to school.

Verdict: 1 drastically improved his draft pick and money, 1 improved his draft position one round.

2015: 6 guys did not sign.

• Kyle Funkhouser: 1st/35th overall: RHP from Louisville, failed to sign with LA Dodgers, turning down an above-slot $2M. 4th rounder in 2016, signed with Detroit.
• Brady Singer, 2nd/56th overall: RHP Florida HS. failed to sign with Toronto, went to Florida and was 1st rounder in 2018, signed with Kansas City
• Jonathan Hughes, 2nd/68th overall: RHP Georgia HS. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Georgia Tech and not even drafted in 2018…
• Kyle Cody, 2nd/73rd overall: RHP U Kentucky. failed to sign with Minnesota, drafted in 6th round in 2016 and signed with Texas
• Nicholas Shumpert, 7th/220th overall. SS Colorado HS. failed to sign with Detroit. Went to San Jacinto CC, drafted in 28th round 2016 by Atlanta and signed.
• Kep Brown, 10th/311 overall. RF South Carolina HS, failed to sign with LA Dodgers. went to Juco, then to UNC-Wilmington, not drafted in 2018.

Funkhouser was the biggest “whoops” here; a poor spring took him from his pre-season top 10 draft position all the way out of the first round, but he still demanded upper 1st round money.  He didn’t get it … and then fell to the 4th round the next year.  That was a big fail.  Singer clearly improved on his 2nd round status by going to college.    Cody slipped from being a 2nd rounder to a 6th rounder.  The other three guys drastically fell on draft boards; one of them going from a 10th rounder to not even being drafted.

Verdict: 1 improved, 5 hurt draft stock

2014: 6 failed to sign

• Brady Aiken: 1/1 overall, RHP from San Diego HS. failed to sign with Houston, went to IMG Academy in FL, drafted 1/17 by Cleveland
• Andrew Suarez: 2nd/57 overall LHP from UMiami, failed to sign with Washington. Drafted 2nd round/61st overall in 2015 by San Francisco
• Trevor Megill; 3rd/104th overall RHP from Loyola Marymount. failed to sign with Boston, drafted 7th/207 in 2015 draft and signed with San Diego
• Jacob Nix: 5th/136 RHP from Los Alomitos HS; couldn’t sign when Tampa lost bonus money, sued, FA, signed with San Diego
• Zack Zehner: 7th/204 OF from Cal Poly, failed to sign with Toronto. Drafted 18th round 2015 and signed with NYY
• Austin Byler, 9th/274 1B from nevada-Reno. failed to sign with Washington, drafted 11th round in 2015 and signed with Arizona

Aiken became quite the rarity; the first #1 overall baseball pick to fail to sign in 30  years.    But his lack of signing cascaded and cost the Astros both their 5th rounder Nix and another player later on thanks to the new draft rules on bonus pools; Nix ended up being declared a FA in a face-saving move by MLB so as not to admit that their new bonus cap circumvention rules were BS.  Aiken had no where to go but down from 1-1 so he obviously cost himself money.  The others all fell, if only slightly in Suarez’s case.

Verdict: 1 didn’t count, 5 lowered draft stock

2013: 8 failed to sign

• Phil Bickford: 1/10 RHP California HS. Toronto failed to sign. went to Southern Nevada juco, drafted 1/18 by SF and signed.
• Matt Krook 1s/35 LHP calif HS. Miami failed to sign, went to Oregon State, drafted 4th round by SF in 2016
• Ben DeLuzio 3rd/80 SS from Fla HS. Miami failed to sign. Went to Florida State, played 4 years … undrafted out of college, NDFA with Arizona
• Ben Holmes, 5th /151 LHP Oregon State. Philly failed to sign. went 9th round in 2014
• Jason Monda 6th/181 OF Washington State. Philly failed to sign … then accused him of NCAA violations. he wasn’t drafted again and quit to go to Med school
• Stephen Woods 6th/188 RHP NY HS: Tampa failed to sign, went to Suny-Albany, drafted 8th round 2016 by SF and signed
• Dustin DeMuth 8th/230 3B from Indiana, Minnesota failed to sign, became 5th rounder in 2014 and signed with Milwaukee
• Ross Kivett 10th/291 2B from kansas State. Cleveland failed to sign, became 6th rounder in 2014 and signed with Detroit

Bickford fell 8 slots year over  year but still fell.   DeMuth and Kivett both improved their stock.  The rest fell, drastically in some cases.

Verdict: 2 improved, 6 fell

2012: 8 failed to sign

• Mark Appel 1/8 RHP Stanford by Pittsburgh. failed to sign, was 1/1 in 2013 with Houston
• Teddy Stankiewicz 2/75 RHP from Texas Hs. failed to sign with Mets, went Juco, 2/45 in 2013 by Boston
• Alec Rash, 2/95 by Philadelphia from IA HS. went to Missouri, 2015 drafted in 23rd round by Washington but still didn’t sign; quit baseball and started playing NCAA basketball
• Kyle Twomey, 3/106 LHP Calif HS Oakland. Drafted 13th round 3 yrs later out of USC by Chicago Cubs.
• Brandon Thomas 4/136 OF from Ga Tech; didn’t sign with Pittsburgh, drafted 8th round one year later and signed with NYY
• Colin Poche 5/162 LHP texas h s. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Dallas Baptist, undrafted Jr year, drafted 14th round 2016 by Arizona
• Nick Halamandaris 8/251 1B Calif HS. failed to sign with Seattle, played 4 years at cal, undrafted jr and Sr year, NDFA with Seattle, played one season
• L.J. Mazzilli 9/280 2B from UConn. 4th rounder in 2013 signed with NY Mets

Appel managed to improve from 8th overall to 1st overall.  Stankiewicz also improved his stock about a round’s worth.  Mazzilli improved from a 9th rounder to a 4th rounder.  The others all fell.

Verdict: 3 up, 5 down.

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Summary: of the 37 players who failed to sign:

• 7 too early to tell yet (7 hs, 0 coll)
• 22 hurt their draft stock by failing to sign (12 HS, 10 coll)
• 7 improved their draft stock.  (1 HS, 6 coll).  Of those who improved:
  • Two improved one round (1 HS, 1 coll) HS kid was Brady Singer
  • Two improved slightly within the same round (2 coll): Mark Appel, Stankiewicz
  • One went from 8th round to 5th round (1 coll)
  • One went from 10th round to 6th round (1 coll)
  • One went from a 9th rounder to a 4th rounder. (1 coll)
• 1 didn’t really count b/c of the Houston 2014 draft bonus shenanigans (Jacob Nix, HS)

So there you have it.  7 of 37 turned down money and look like they slightly made out (19%).   22/37 (60%) did not … and in some cases clearly cost themselves millions of dollars.  And even those 7 who did improve their ranking … not one of them in my opinion drastically improved their stock by going to college.  In fact, you can make the argument that getting drafted in the 8th round in one year, playing another year in college and then going in the 5th round probably *hurts* a player’s pro prospects because now he’s a year older versus his peers and has lost a year of pro development time.  A 22 yr old college senior draftee is already “old for the level” until he gets to at least Low-A, which is no guarantee even in his second pro year.

Now, has it ever worked out for a player to turn down significant 1st round money?  Yeah a couple times; Mark Appel gambled and improved his stock just before the new CBA took hold; in fact he managed to go 1-1 despite being a college senior with zero leverage.  Garrett Cole also made out by going to school.  So did a few others in the pre-2012 CBA eras.   But its a rarity; I’ve got another post that goes over these and some of the biggest nightmares for a later date.

Food for thought.

The MLB rule-4 (Amateur) draft starts tonight, 6/9/16 at 7pm.  The MLB Network will have full coverage of the first round of picks. This post is my dumping ground of draft coverage for 2016.

This post uses last year’s format, with links to use to see draft prospect rankings, links to help cover the draft (which I personally come back to time and time again), some blurbs on local players of interest, and then links to a bunch of mock drafts.

Draft Coverage so far at NAR for 2016:

• Here’s the big post on all marquee DC/MD/VA prep players ahead of the 2016 season (only guys who are “significant” draft prospects are mentioned here).
• Here’s the same for DC/MD/VA tied College players
• After the draft happens, I’ll review both of the above posts and list who actually got picked and who’s going to school.

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Draft Links of importance

• MLB.com Official 2016 Draft Central home page.
• MLB’s Awesome 2016 Draft Tracker; you can slice and dice the draft 10 different ways, search by schools and home states, etc.
• Official MLB 2016 Draft Order. Per my “evolving draft order” xls online, The Nats forfeited what would have been the #16 pick and now their first two picks are #28 and #29.  After that, they pick 58th, 94th, 124th and then +30 picks there after per round.
  
• Official Draft Bonus Pool totals for 2016.  Reds and Phillies have the most ($13M+).  Nats have $7.6M
• MLB Draft Database for all past databases.
• Fangraphs Sortable Draft Board; a great new tool Fangraphs has that lets you slice and dice their top draft board.
• Baseball-Reference Draft Tools: links to their draft database plus some custom reports.
• Baseball America’s 2016 Draft Order

Here’s a slew of Draft Prospect rankings : these are NOT the same as mock drafts; see further down for those.  You’re going to see the same locally tied names on nearly all of these lists; they’re all individually profiled further below.

• D1baseball HS top 100 players with commitments for 2016 (most of it behind a pay-wall).  UVA stands to lose three significant recruits being ranked in their top 100 right now.
  
• D1Baseball.com’s Top 150 Draft Prospects (mostly behind a pay-wall): Puk, Lewis, Groome, Pint, Ray.
  
• ESPN/Keith Law‘s May 2016 Top 100 Draft Prospects (ESPN insider): Ray, Groome, Perez, Moniak, Puk.
  
• ESPN/Keith Law‘s June “Draft Big Board” (insider only): Ray, Groome, Perez, Puk, Moniak
• Law’s last minute updated Big Board:
• ESPN/Jim Bowden‘s “Big Board” (insider only): Groome, Senzel, Moniak, Perez, Lewis
• MLBpipeline’s top 100 draft prospects: Groome, Pint, Ray, Lewis, Puk
• MLBpipeline’s top 200 draft prospects: same as above
• Minorleagueball.com’s 151 Draft prospects (by unknown author “cookiedabookie”): Lewis, Groome, Puk, Pint, Rutherford
• USAToday/Frankie Piliere‘s top 30 Draft Prospects: Puk, Lewis, Groome, Pint, Ray.
• BeyondtheBoxScore.com/Carl Triano‘s Stat-based top Draft Prospect Rankings
• Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects: Puk, Pint, Groome, Lewis, Moniak
• Baseball Prospectus/Chris Crawford Top 50 draft prospects (Premium content)
• PerfectGame.org’s Top 100 Prospects: Groome, Pint, Ray, Rutherford, Puk (full list premium content)
• Scout.com’s Jeff Ellis draft prospect Rankings: Part 1 (1-51) and Part 2 (52-102): Rutherford, Senzel, Moniak, Groome, Ray
• Ellis’ final Prospect rankings: Rutherford, Senzel, Moniak, Groome, Ray
• MLBDraftReport’s Top 500 Draft Ranking; not doing a big master list, instead he’s doing per-position rankings

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Now, some news about College Players with local ties who are serious draft candidates (meaning first couple of rounds projected or present on top 100 draft ranking lists).  Note that I’ve got a far, far larger list of local players that I’ll follow-up on after the draft; these are just the significant/top 10 round types.

• Connor Jones, UVA RHP via Great Bridge; at this point perhaps the 2nd or 3rd best college pitching prospect thanks to fall-offs from a number of other candidates.  Probably a mid-1st rounder, though some pundits (Keith Law) have him rated far lower.
• Buddy Reed, OF from Florida via Finksburg, MD (NW of Baltimore).  Probably a late first rounder or sandwich pick, perhaps lower.
• Matt Thaiss, UVA C who has shot up the rankings; now projected as early 2nd rounder.  Keith Law likes him as a late 1st rounder.
• Mike Shawaryn: RHP for Maryland; stock has really fallen this season; now perhaps just a 4th rounder.  A late season push improved his draft status somewhat.
• Andrew Knizner, C from NC State by way of Glen Allen, VA: gritty ballplayer who has played his way into perhaps 5th round discussions.
• Errol Robinson, SS from Ole Miss by way of Maryland; struggled badly this season, dropping his stock from early 2nd round projections; no idea where he’s project to go now.

Local Prep players of note who are serious draft candidates:

• Joe Rizzo, INF for Oakton HS.  Remains the highest ranked local draft prospect, projecting as anywhere between a mid-1st rounder and an early 2nd rounder.  South Carolina commit.  MLBpipeline.com’s write-up profiles his draft prospects the best.
• Khalil Lee LHP/OF for Flint Hill.  Some have him 2nd-3rd round, others have him projected 4th-5th.  Part of the confusion is where to play him; he was an undersized speedy CF candidate… then suddenly flashed low 90s off the mound as a lefty starter this year.  Liberty commit.
• Zack Hess, 1B/OF from Liberty Christian Academy (Lynchburg).  3rd round projection.  LSU commit.
• Noah Murdock, a RHP from Colonial Heights (Richmond).  4th round projection by rank, UVA commit.
• Garrett Stallings, RHP from Grassfield HS.  Not generally listed but may be rising, Tennessee commit.

Re-draft players of interest to Nats fans:  these are re-drafts that have come back up.  See the Draft Tracker for underclassmen draftees from last year and/or Prep draftees from 2013 who are now draft eligible again.

• Garrett Hampson, SS from Long Beach State.  Nats 2013 26th round pick, now projecting as a 5th or 6th rounder.
• Reid Humphreys, RHP/OF two-way player from Mississippi State.  Nats 2013 36th rounder, now projecting as a 4th/5th rounder.
• Shaun Anderson, RHP from Florida.  Nats 2013 40th rounder, now projecting as a late 3rd rounder.
• John Reeves, C from Rice.  Nats 2015 20th rounder who started 56 games for the CWS-bound Rice team and hit above .300; looks like a good choice to return to school.
• Alec Rash, RHP from Missouri: Nats 23rd round pick in 2015.  Quit baseball altogether last fall to pursue collegiate basketball.
• Blake Smith, RHP from WVA: Nats 24th round pick in 2015: posted a 2.20 ERA as West Virginia’s closer for the season with 8 saves and 25 appearances.
• Mack Lemieux, LHP from Jupiter HS and then Palm Beach State CC.  Nats 14th round pick in 2015.

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Mock Drafts

Every year I say i’ll stay away from the Mock Draft links … and every year I come back.  Here’s a running collection.  DCProSports.com has a master list of Mock drafts at this link that has many more than I’ve got listed below.

• Fangraphs/Scott Moore‘s Mock #1: Groome, Senzel, Lewis, Puk, Pint.
• BaseballAmerica/Hudson Belinsky‘s Mock #1: Groome, Senzel, Pint, Puk, Perez.
• BaseballAmerica/Hudson Belinsky‘s Mock #2: Puk, Lewis, Pint, Moniak, Ray.
• BaseballAmerica/John Manuel Mock #1: Puk, Lewis, Pint, Moniak, Groome.
• BaseballAmerica/John Manual BA Mock #4: Moniak, Puk, Ray, Lewis, Pint
• Manual Mock #5: Moniak, Puk, Lewis, Pint, Ray
• ESPN/Keith Law Mock #1 (Insider only): Puk, Lewis, Groome, Pint, Ray.
• ESPN/Keith Law Mock #2 (Insider only): Puk, Lewis, Groome, Moniak, Perez.
• ESPN/Keith Law Mock #3: Puk, Lewis, Groome, Pint, Ray
• ESPN/Keith Law Final Mock: Moniak, Puk, Lewis, Pint, Ray
• D1baseball.com/Frankie Piliere Mock #1: Puk, Lewis, Groome, Pint, Ray.
• D1baseball.com/Frankie Piliere Mock #2: Puk, Lewis, Ray, Groome, Perez
• MLBPipeline.com/Jim Callis Mock #1: Puk, Senzel, Lewis, Moniak, Ray.
• MLBPipeline.com/Jim Callis  Mock #2: Puk, Senzel, Lewis, Moniak, Perez.
• MLBPipeline.com/Jim Callis Final Mock: Moniak, Senzel, Ray, Puk, Collins
• MLBPipeline.com/Jonathan Mayo Mock #1: Puk, Senzel, Lewis, Groome, Perez.
• MLBPipeline.com/Jonathan Mayo Final Mock: Moniak, Senzel, Ray, Puk, Rutherford
• MinorLeagueBall Mock #1 Part one and Part two: Lewis, Puk, Groome, Rutherford, Moniak
• Scout.com/Taylor Ward Mock #1: Groome, Senzel, Rutherford, Lewis, Ray
• Scout.com/Taylor Ward Mock #2: Puk, Ray, Lewis, Groome, Rutherford.
  
• Scout.com/Jeff Ellis‘ Mock #1: Groome, Hansen, Puk, Moniak, Pint
• Scout.com/Jeff Ellis‘ Mock #2: Senzel, Perez, Ray, Groome, Rutherford
• Scout.com/Jeff Ellis‘ Mock #3: Garrett, Groome, Rutherford, Senzel, Perez
• Scout.com/Jeff Ellis‘ Mock #4: Puk, Perez, Ray, Moniak, Rutherford
• Scout.com/Jeff Ellis‘ Mock #5: Puk, Lewis, Pint, Moniak, Rutherford
• Scout.com/Jeff Ellis final Mock: Moniak, Puk, Lewis, Pint, Ray
• NatsGM.com/Ryan Sullivan‘s Mock #1: Puck, Senzel, Lewis, Groome, Perez
• Si.com/Chris Crawford‘s Last minute Mock Draft: Puk. Lewis, Groome, Pint, Ray
• Baseball Prospectus; have not seen any mock drafts from BP this year.
  
• PerfectGame.org Mock Drafts are Insider/Premium only; this link is to their 2016 Draft Coverage home page.
  

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Todd Boss’ Mock draft?  Based on my vast level of expertise (sarcasm) and the thousands of man hours i’ve put in scouting players in person and cultivating industry sources (also sarcasm), and instead reading the tea leaves of the gazillion other mock drafts, I’ll take this as my initial guess for the top 5: Puk, Lewis, Groome, Pint, Moniak

The only thing that gives me pause is this: Puk *stunk* in the regional.  4 and a third, 5 hits and 5 runs given up to UConn.  Sorry; if you’re going to go 1-1 you need to do an outing like 7ip, 4hits, 10ks, 0 walks in your swan song.  I wonder if that was enough to have Philly move to a different pick.  And Perez just got popped for failing a drug test, instantly removing him from top-5 consideration.  So, given Puk’s stinker most of the last minute mocks have Philly off of Puk and doing Moniak as an under-slot deal.  And I can’t disagree.  So my final mock will be: Moniak, Puk, Lewis, Pint, Ray

And this top 5 means that Groome and Pint (who I think are the two best talents in this draft) fall to teams outside the top 5 and they’re going to be absolutely ecstatic.

ACTUAL DRAFT Results: Moniak, Senzel, Anderson (??), Pint and Ray.  Just like everyone predicted.

Who are the Nats going to take at #28 and #29?

No frigging idea.  Lots of these Mock drafts attempt to guess, to put some names with the Nats down that far.  But consider the 2011 draft.  Everyone had Anthony Rendon going 1-1.  Suddenly he slips and the Nats grab him at #6 in a total gift.  The point is this: we have no idea how even the top 5 picks will go, so predicting what’s going to happen at pick #6 is folly, let alone #28.  Nats will take BPA, probably will mix up a safer pick (aka college arm) with a riskier pick (aka a high school bat) and go back to back $2M bonus slots.  I also like the running theory that the nats will get the Scott Boras special and “package” two Boras clients together at 28/29 and basically split the bonus pools.  Names often mentioned here include Kyle Funkhauser and the prep pitcher/basketball player Matt Manning.  One would be an over draft, one would be a steal if he gets here.  We’ll see.

 

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2016:

• College Baseball 2016 Preview and pre-season Rankings
• 2016 Draft Preview for Local College-age eligible players of note.
• Field of 64 announcement

Now we’re through the Regionals and the field has been winnowed from 64 to just 16.

We’ll review the 16 regionals in order of the larger bracket.  Bold is the host and Bolded Red is the winner.  We’ll also highlight significant players and/or guys who are big names in the upcoming draft as we get to them (MLBpipeline.com summarizes their top 200 ranked players here: i’ll just talk about the 1st round talents and players w/ local ties).

1. In the Florida regional, UConn put a mini upset loss on Georgia Tech, who tried to sneak a win with a mid-week starter and now face a loser’s bracket hole.  Meanwhile Florida surprisingly stuck with their rotation and threw ace/friday starter Logan Shore in game one against Bethune-Cookman. Presumed #1 pick A.J. Puk then went up against UConnn and their 1st round Ace Anthony Kay.  In the winner’s bracket game and both laid eggs; Puk couldn’t get out of the 5th and Kay gave up 5 runs in 5+ innings.  One wonders if this causes some last minute changes at the top of draft boards.  Nonetheless, Florida got a run in the 8th to take it 6-5 and assume control of the regional.  Georgia Tech took out UConn to face Florida in the regional final, where they got pummelled 10-1 as Florida advanced.

16. In the Florida State regional, Florida State and Southern Miss destroyed their foes in the first games, and Florida State made quick work over Southern Miss to advance to the championship game.  South Alabama lost 14-2 in their opening game; they were one of the last at-large teams to make the tourney at the expense of UNC and UNC’s Zac Gallen took to twitter to let the selection committee (which included South Alabama’s athletic director) know it.  Can’t blame him; the ACC has dominated in this tourney so far.  That being said, South Alabama did advance out of the loser’s bracket to face Fla State in the regional final, where they got obliterated.  Florida State Advances, scoring 43 runs in three games.

2. In the Louisville regional, both Louisville and 2-seed Ohio State handled their openers.  Louisville threw Kyle Funkhouser and he gave up just 4 hits in 8 innings, with presumptive upper 1st rounder Corey Ray going 3-5 at leadoff.  Louisville pounded Ohio State in the winner’s bracket game, putting themselves in the easy driver’s seat and making them an early CWS favorite.  Louisville ended up downing Wright State to advance.

15. In the Vanderbilt regional, awful news broke just prior to the game when it was learned that one of Vanderbilt’s freshmen pitchers Donny Everett drowned the previous weekend, casting a pall over the regional.   UC Santa Barbara held serve in their first game.  When Vanderbilt finally took the field, they completely melted down in the 7th inning, giving up 13 runs in the frame (half of them against likely 1st rounder Jordan Sheffield) to lose 15-1 to 4th seeded Xavier.  In the loser’s bracket, Vanderbilt’s coach left in his starter Kyle Wright far too long (122 pitches but more importantly turning an 8-2 lead in to an 8-7 nailbiter), and Washington eventually hit a 2-run homer against the bullpen for the win.  Vanderbilt goes 2-and-out as a host and ends their streak of making the CWS finals.  Meanwhile UC Santa Barbara took control of the region and forced Xavier to have to beat them twice to advance; it didn’t happen as UC Santa Barbara pounded Xavier 14-5 to advance to their 1st super regional ever.

3.  In the Coral Gables regional (host #3 Miami), Long Beach State got an early upset win over Florida Atlantic while Miami eased past in-state rival Stetson.  Miami won a squeaker over Long Beach to take control of the regional, but it was closer than you’d expect. Stetson went 2-and-out quickly.  LBSU got back to the winner’s final, and almost had a 9-run comeback against Miami before dropping the regional final 9-8 on a Miami walk-off.

14. In the Ole Miss regional, Mississippi became one of the only hosts to lose its first game, dropping a 6-5 decision to the probably-underseeded Utah team.  Boston College also got a mini-upset when their 1st round prospect ace Justin Dunn dominated Tulane to setup a 3-4 seed winner’s bracket game.  Ole Miss then promptly went two and out by losing the next game to Tulane.  Boston College beat Utah to take control of the regional.  Tulane overtook Utah to make it to the regional final, but Boston College handled them easily to advance as a #3 seed.

4. in the Texas A&M regional, both seeds advanced (TAMU and Wake Forest) initially without much fanfare, but then TAMU embarassed Wake Forest to the tune of a 22-2 beatdown in the winner’s bracket.  TAMU may “only” be the 4th seed, but they’re #1 in some polls and are looking very dangerous.  TAMU eventually advanced against Minnesota, who made it to the regional final as what many thought was an undeserved #2 seed.

13. In the TCU regional, Gonzaga upset Arizona State and pressed TCU in the winner’s bracket game before falling 4-3.  Arizona acquitted themselves and got back to the regional final, where TCU made short work of them 8-1 to advance.

5. In the Texas Tech region, the hosts destroyed Fairfield in the opener and then New Mexico shocked Dallas Baptist.  DBU advanced to the loser’s bracket final.  Texas Tech won a nail-biter over the tough New Mexico team in the winner’s bracket game.  DBU advanced to the regional final, where they took one game off of Texas Tech to force the winner-take-all game.  In a back-and-forth game, Texas Tech jumped ahead in the 6th and made the lead stick to advance.

12. In the Charlottesville Region (host #12 UVA), UVA took a gamble and threw struggling sunday starter Alec Bettinger against in-state rival William & Mary (filled with Northern Virginia alum) and pounded their starter Dan Powers (of my alma mater Madison HS in Vienna).  UVA didn’t stop there, eventually winning 17-4.  Meanwhile, ECU (half of their lineup is VA-based) destroyed Bryant’s bullpen en route to a 9-1 easy victory in a “minor upset.”  ECU has to like their chances, having taken 2 of 3 in Charlottesville earlier in the season.  UVA did their best to keep this from happening, taking a 6-3 lead into the 9th against some-time starter (and Vienna native Tommy Doyle, who promptly gave up 5 runs in the 9th and a walk-off 3-run homer to blow the game for the Cavaliers.  W&M made quick work of the over-seeded Bryant team and gets a second crack at UVA, who now faces a big up-hill battle to advance.  Interesting choice to finish the game; doesn’t UVA have, you know, relievers and a closer for that task?  Then, to add insult to injury in the Loser’s bracket elimination game William & Mary quickly got to UVA’s saturday starter Daniel Lynch and then tacked on two more on Doyle to eliminate last year’s champion UVA 5-4.  UVA just didn’t have the pitching they needed and sorely miss the presence they got from someone like Josh Sborz last year.  W&M and ECU face off having eliminated the top two seeds in this regional, and ECU easily advanced to the Super Regional.  ECU was the first team to book its ticket to the super-regionals this year.

6. In the Mississippi State regional, the hosts won their first game and then eased by the dangerous Cal-State Fullerton team to take control of the regional.  CSF got upset by Louisiana Tech in the losers’s bracket, but it didn’t matter as Mississippi State wasn’t troubled in the regional final to advance.

11. In the Louisiana-Lafayette regional, both top seeds held serve in the first games before weather pushed the whole regional by a day.  ULL made it to the regional final with a 10-3 victory over Arizona, but Arizona came back through the loser’s bracket and took two straight over ULL to win the regional in a winner-take-all game Monday.

7. In the Clemson regional (host #7 Clemson), Clemson scored an astounding 24 runs to win a slugfest in its opener but then had its hat handed to them 12-2 by Oklahoma State in the winner’s bracket game.  Huge showing by the Big-12 so far in this tournament.  Clemson battered their way back to a rematch … where Oklahoma State promptly beat them again 9-2 to advance.  Clemson becomes the first national seed to fall, albeit not in a hugely surprising fashion to a very good OK State team.  Clemson’s Seth Beer continued his monster season, finishing up one of the 5-best freshman seasons we’ve seen in a while and putting his name on the map for the 2017 draft (where he’ll be a draft-eligible sophomore).

10. In the South Carolina regional, the hosts were shocked by Rhode Island in the opener while UNC-Wilmington (who starts four guys in the lineup hailing from Virginia) destroyed Duke to put themselves in the driver’s seat.  UNC-W continued on, beating Rhode Island 11-7 to head to the winner’s bracket final.  South Carolina downed Duke in the elimination game to face up with R.I. again.  There, South Carolina got their revenge, beating Rhode Island by the astounding score of 23-2.  In the regional final, SC had to beat UNC-W twice to advance; they forced the winner-take-all game with a 10-1 dismantling of their CAA foes sunday night.  The winner-take-all game got rained out monday, pushed to Tuesday.  In that tuesday game, South Carolina jumped ahead early and held on to win the last game 10-5 to complete the comeback out of the Loser’s bracket and advance.

8. The LSU regional was plagued by rain.  They only got one game in on Friday and Saturday.  however, LSU saved their ace Alex Lange for the Rice matchup, where he’ll face another highly regarded college junior in Jon Duplantier.  A freak “ground rule grand slam” set the tone early and LSU prevailed.  Rice came back through the loser’s bracket and took the first game from LSU in the regional final, forcing a winner-take-all Tuesday.  In that winner-take-all game, Rice jumped out ahead but LSU had a clutch go-ahead homer in the 7th to break Rice’s back.  LSU advances and becomes the last of the 16 teams to do so.

9. In the NC State region,  NC State pounded Navy’s Luke Gillingham to put away any chances of an upset while Coastal Carolina eased past St. Marys to setup a fun all-Carolina matchup in the winner’s bracket.  Navy put St. Marys on 2-and-out.  The NC State-Coastal game was delayed a day by weather, but Coastal held a 3-0 lead going into the bottom of the 9th to delay the inevitable.  NC State destroyed Navy in the loser’s bracket final 17-1 to face off against Coastal twice to advance.  In the first game of the final, NC State easily beat CC to force the winner-take-all game.  That game, believe it or not, was suspended in the top of the 9th with NC State holding a 2-run advantage and had to be pushed to Tuesday.  When they resumed the game … Coastal Carolina rallied for four runs in the top of the 9th to win the game and the regional.  Amazing.

 

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Summary of Regionals statistically:

• 10 of 16 hosts advanced, including 7 of 8 National seeds.  This is a far cry from 2014, which lost most of its national seeds early, but about in line with 2015’s tournament where 11 of 16 advanced.
• 2 first time Super-Regional participants (Boston College, UC Santa Barbara)
• 5 = number of regionals forced into the “extra” deciding game, most of them on Tuesday thanks to weather.
  
• 10 number one seeds, 4 number two seeds, and 2 number three seeds advance to the super regionals.  
• 6 number of #4 seeds who didn’t finish 4th in their regional: two were runner’s up in their region (William & Mary and Xavier).
• 2 hosts that went 2-and-out (the understandable Vanderbilt and Ole Miss).
• 5 of the regionals went pure chalk, a decent indication of the job the seeding committee did this year.
• Biggest upsets: Xavier destroying Vanderbilt, Utah beating Ole Miss.
• Most surprising regional winner:  UC Santa Barbara

Conference Breakdowns of the teams in the Super Regionals:

• SEC: florida, TAMU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, LSU
• Big12: TCU, Texas Tech, OK State
• ACC: Fla State, Lousiville, Miami, BC
• Pac12: Arizona
• other: UCSB, ECU, Coastal Carolina

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Super Regional Matchups:  The super-regional hosts were announced just after the last regional ended.

• #1 Florida vs #16 Florida State (a rematch of last year’s super-regional)
• #2 Louisville vs UC Santa Barbara
• #3 Miami vs Boston College
• #4 TAMU vs #13 TCU (a rematch of last year’s super regional)
• #5 Texas Tech vs ECU
• #6 Mississippi State vs Arizona
  
• Oklahoma State vs #10 South Carolina
• #8 LSU vs Coastal Carolina

 

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Super Regional Thoughts:

I think the top 4 seeds are class this year; i’m going with Florida, Louisville, Miami and TAMU to start, and two of them are helped by going against first time super-regional teams.  We have two Super-Regional rematches from last year (Florida-Florida State and TAMU-TCU), which followed last year’s multiple super regional rematches.  I know the committee likes this, but I don’t; give these teams a shot at playing someone else.  Florida destroyed Florida State last year and their pitching staff should control them again this year.  I don’t see Louisville troubled.  Miami-BC is an ACC match-up that never happened this season.  I love TAMU-TCU and think its unfortunate they meet here and not Omaha; they played a fantastic regional last year that culminated in a 16-inning decider.

I like ECU but don’t know enough about Texas Tech to predict a possible upset.  Same with Mississippi State; are they the most non-descript national seed we’ve had in awhile?  Arizona came out of the weak Pac12 this year so its hard to pick against the nationally ranked team.  I think Oklahoma State is better

Predictions: Florida, Louisville, Miami, TAMU, ECU, Mississippi State, OK State, LSU

 

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College CWS tournament references:

• d1baseball.com’s daily scoreboard is my go-to link
• Baseball America’s Regional Roundup
• d1baseball’s tournament Post season Index
• d1baseball.com’s Regional Schedule Home Page
• d1baseball’s Regional participant information
• CollegeBaseballDaily.com has coverage as well.
• Ncaa.com’s interactive full 64-team bracket with up-to-the-minute box scores of live games.
• NCAA Individual player stats
• Warren Nolan.com’s College Baseball RPI

Its that time of year again; Its College Baseball playoff season!

On 5/29/16, a day before the entire field was announced, the 16 Regional hosts were announced.  These are also the top 16 seeds (though they only acknowledge the top 8 “national seeds”).  The following day, the entire field was announced.  Here’s a look at the 16 regional tournaments with some quickie thoughts.

Each of these 4-team sets is listed in the “seed” in the regional, starting with the host:

1. Florida, Georgia Tech, UConn, Bethune-Cookman: hard to see the #1 overall seed and presumptive favorite all year lose at this stage.
16. Florida State, Southern Miss, South Alabama, Alabama State: Some think there’s an upset possible here, since both Southern Miss and South Alabama are tough; I still think Fla State can power its way through here.

If seeds hold, Florida meets Florida State for a fun intra-state tourney.  They’ve played three mid-week games this season with Florida sweeping them all, so odds are that Florida is making Omaha.

2. Louisville, Ohio State, Wright State, Western Michigan: Ohio State as your 2-seed isn’t scaring anyone.
15. Vanderbilt, UC Santa Barbara, Washington, Xavier: Not really much of a challenge for Vanderbilt in this regional; not even another top-25 team.

If seeds hold, yet another intra-state repeat super-regional matchup between these two teams, and a pretty tough draw for Louisville if it happens.  Vanderbilt is better than a #15 seed and this match-up seems like its forced to save a few dollars in travel costs; both of these teams are legitimate Omaha threats, with Vanderbilt having made the final in both of the last two seasons.

3. Miami, Florida Atlantic, Long Beach State, Stetson: Miami and Florida Atlantic split a couple of mid-week games; they have a dangerous Long Beach State as a #3 seed.  tough regional.
14. Ole Miss, Tulane, Boston College, Utah: Ole Miss will have its hands full with Tulane but should advance.

If seeds hold, Ole Miss gets a tough assignment going to Miami, but Miami should prevail.

4. Texas A&M, Minnesota, Wake Forest, Binghamton: wow, Minnesota as your #2 seed?  Tough regional you laid out there for TAMU this year.
13. TCU, Arizona State, Gonzaga, Orel Roberts: I don’t trust any of the Pac-12 teams this year; TCU should prevail.

If seeds hold, yet another manufactured super regional of local teams.  They didn’t play mid-week this season.  This could be a good series; some think TAMU is the beat team in the land.

5. Texas Tech, Dallas Baptist, New Mexico, Fairfield: shouldn’t be too tough for newcomer Texas Tech.
12. UVA, Bryant, ECU, William & Mary: well, UVA got kind of short changed here; Bryant isn’t tough but ECU can be.  They can’t be happy about seeing in-state rival W&M either.  They dodged a bullet with a weaker #2 seed though.

If seeds hold, Texas Tech-UVA is super close; they’re #6 and #7 in d1baseball’s latest poll.  I know nothing of Texas Tech but know UVA has played great as of late, has two 1st round talents and could be a tough out.

6. Mississippi State, Cal-State Fullerton, Louisiana Tech, Southeast Missouri State; Mississippi State should cruise here: Fullerton looks tough on paper but can come up short in the playoffs.
11. Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona, Sam Houston State, Princeton: some upset potential here if you trust any Pac-12 teams.

If seeds hold, hard to see Mississippi State (ranked #3 in d1baseball’s latest poll) losing.

7. Clemson, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Western Carolina: Clemson will be favored but will struggle with OK State.
10. South Carolina, UNC-Wilmington, Duke, Rhode Island; tough regional for South Carolina; Duke is no slouch and Wilmington is tough.

If seeds hold (and sensing a pattern here), another intra-state superregional.  Clemson-South Carolina would be fun.

8. LSU, Rice, Southeastern LA, Utah Valley: hard to see LSU getting stressed here: Rice always underperforms in the post-season.
9. NC State, Coastal Carolina, St. Marys, Navy: tough blow for Coastal, which apparently went from just missing being a regional host to having to travel to tough ACC competitor NC State.  Meanwhile, NC State probably has the hardest regional of them all, with Navy’s pre-season all-american Luke Gillingham set to go in game 1.

If seeds hold, LSU-NC State could be a barn burner.

Easiest Regionals: I’d go with TAMU, Florida, Louisville.

Hardest Regionals: NC State, South Carolina, UVA.

My Omaha predictions right now: Florida, Louisville, Miami, TAMU, UVA, Mississippi State, South Carolina, LSU.  A lot of chalk there.

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Snubs

North Carolina.  A top 20 team by RPI but yet again finishes with a sub-par, sub-.500 record in ACC play and gets left out.  10 other ACC teams made the tournament, making college baseball more and more of an ACC-SEC affair, but not having a top 20 team by the same RPI factors that clearly drove both the regional host selections and the at-large teams really is kind of hypocritical.  Why not just tell teams at the beginning of the year, “if you don’t finish .500 in conference play you will not be selected.”

The college podcasts listed a few other snubs like Kent State and PAC-12 teams Oregon and/or Oregon State, but for me it starts and ends with UNC.

Marquee Draft-related players to watch

I won’t go through all 64 teams, but here’s some of the more interesting names to keep an eye on:

• #1 Florida has likely #1 overall pick A.J. Puk, but their “other” Ace starter Logan Shore is also a likely 1st or 2nd round pick.  Also a likely high pick is OF Buddy Reed.
• #2 seed Louisville is led by likely top-5 pick Corey Ray and has two big arms you’ll hear mentioned on draft day (Zach Burdi and Kyle Funkhouser).
• Miami’s Zach Collins is probably the first catcher off the board.
• UVA is led by Conner Jones and Matt Thaiss, both likely 1st rounders.
• Mississippi State’s ace is Dakota Hudson, likely the 2nd or 3rd college arm drafted.
• Vanderbilt is led by 1st rounder Jordan Sheffield and in the field by likely 2nd rounder Bryan Reynolds.
• Boston College’s staff is led by likely 1st rounder Justin Dunn.
• Wake Forest’s Will Craig is one of the top sluggers in the nation, on the leader boards for both average and home runs.
• UConn’s Anthony Kay will make life difficult for Florida if he is saved for the winner’s bracket game.

Other News

After Texas failed to make the tourney, their long-time coach and noted arm-shredder Augie Garrido stepped down to take an administrative job.

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College CWS tournament references:

• d1baseball.com’s daily scoreboard is my go-to link
• Baseball America’s Regional Roundup
• d1baseball’s tournament Post season Index
• d1baseball.com’s Regional Schedule Home Page
• d1baseball’s Regional participant information
• CollegeBaseballDaily.com has coverage as well.
• Ncaa.com’s interactive full 64-team bracket
• NCAA Individual player stats
• Warren Nolan.com’s College Baseball RPI

 

Welcome to the 2016 College Baseball Season!  Despite there still being snow on the ground here,  D1 programs all over the country played their first series this past weekend.

I know; I’m one of the few guys out there (at least in DC blogger-land) covering the College game.  So i’m ok if you keep moving on.  I probably got really turned onto the College game as I started to really look at the college arms the Nats were drafting, and the focus the Mike Rizzo establishment puts on college players.  Its a very “Billy Beane-esque” strategy; college players have more ABs, more consistent stats and more experience playing against “known quantities” of talent (especially those guys in the top baseball leagues like the SEC and ACC).  Now with two very good local programs (UVA and UMD) and a ton of local guys who i’ve been following long enough to track them from HS draft prospect to College draft prospect, I continue coverage of the College game.

Quick rundown of the top local prospects first weekend in action;

• UVA’s Connor Jones threw 7 shut-out innings in a UVA win over Kent State.
• Maryland’s Mike Shawaryn gave up 2 runs on 3 hits in a loss at Alabama
• UVA’s Matt Thaiss went 6-13 in the kickoff tournament down in Myrtle Beach.
• Ole Miss’ Error Robinson (a dc-native but quickly rising on the draft boards) went 2-for-7 with 3 walks and 4 runs in a their opening series sweep against FIU.
• UNC’s J.B. Bukauskas had 9 Ks in 4 2/3’s innings but got a hook after showing some wildness in an eventual UNC loss.

I have a comprehensive post about all DC-area prospects coming, headlined by these four guys but also including all the local prep and college players, which we’ll post once HS season starts up.

Meanwhile, here’s some pre-season top-X lists for the new year: you’re going to see the same 4 teams at the top of every list.  There’s only 5 or so main sites covering the game, so we’ll go back to these blogs and sites constantly.  D1baseball.com and BaseballAmerica.com are the leaders but the other Collegiate Baseball sites are good as well.

• D1Baseball’s pre-season top 25: Florida, Louisville, TAMU, Vandy, Oregon State.
• Baseball America’s pre-season top-25: Florida, Louisville, TAMU then surprisingly UVA #4.
• College Baseball Daily pre-season top 25 from 2/1/16: Louisville #1, TAMU #2, Vanderbilt #3 and Florida #4.  Virginia #8, Maryland #22.
• College Baseball Central’s pre-season top 25 January 2016: Florida #1, Louisville #2
• Collegiate Baseball News pre-season top-40 announced in Dec 2015.  Florida #1, Louisville #2, which isn’t surprising since both teams have multiple pre-season first team all-americans on their team.  Local teams mentioned: UVA #9, Maryland #28.
• NCBWA (National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association)’s pre-season top-30: Florida, Louisville, Vandy and TAMU.

And here’s some pre-season All-America lists.  You’ll recognize a lot of these names if you’ve followed any pre-2016 draft coverage, and this list will eventually comprise a huge percentage of the first round draft this coming June.

• Collegiate Baseball News announced in Dec 2015 their pre-season All Americans and it contains a whole slew of names in contention for 1-1 in 2016.  A.J. Puk, Alec Hanson, Corey Ray along with other big-time names such as Kyle Funkhouser, Nick Banks.  Maryland’s Mike Shawaryn is a 1st teamer, UVA’s Connor Jones and the Navy’s Luke Gillingham a 2nd-teamer, and Matt Thaiss (UVA), Charley Gould (W&M) and Michael Morman (Richmond) are 3rd teamers.
• D1Baseball.com’s pre-season all American list: the two aces for local college teams UVA and UMD are listed (Jones and Shawaryn).   UVA’s Thaiss is a 2nd teamer.  D1baseball also has a list of the Top 300 College draft prospects for 2016.
• BaseballAmerica’s pre-season All American team is here.  No local guys on 1st team, Shawaryn, Jones and Pavin Smith are on the 2nd and 3rd teams.
• USA Baseball pre-season Golden Spikes watch list: includes most major D1 prospects and local guys Shawaryn, Jones, Thaiss and Gillingham.

A full overview of D1Baseball’s coverage is here.  BaseballAmerica’s College index is here.

 

 

Here’s a fast review of the 2015 draft class, looking at their 2015 numbers and making some snap judgements.

This post idea was stolen from minorleagueball.com’s John Sickels, who used to do this for nearly the entire draft class a couple of  years back.  It is quite a bit of clicking around so it isn’t surprising that he gave up on it.  I did this kind of review a couple of years ago and may try to find time to extend it to 2015 performances of the 2014 (and earlier) classes, because its a nice way to check in on everyone all at once.

Baseball America had some limited information for every kid taken in the first 10 rounds and this post expands on the BA information for our entire 2015 class all the way to round 40.

Web links to use while reading:

• Stats are pulled from milb.com and/or fangraphs.com; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats
• The MLB Draft Tracker (which I believe is the best draft tracker out there) is the best place to get draft class information.
• The Big Board and the Draft Tracker are the goto resources for prospects for any Nats fan.

At the end of each player write-up i’ll put in a color coded trending line for the player: Green for Trending Up, Blue for Trending steady, Red for Trending Down.   This is just my knee-jerk opinion of the prospect status of the player system-wide.  And yes I realize this is their first pro ball season, short-sample sizes, scouting the stat line, etc etc.  So apologies in advance if you think i’m being too harsh passing judgement on a 15 inning sample size.  Of course I am; what else are we going to argue about this off-season?  🙂

Without further ado:

Round 1: forfeited by virtue of the Max Scherzer signing.  Would have been the 26th pick overall, which ended up being Taylor Ward, a C from Fresno State that many thought was an overdraft by the Angels but which looks pretty good in retrospect (he slashed .348/.457/.438 in his first pro season split between rookie and low-A).  Knowing the Nationals’ proclivities, they likely would have taken one of two polished college hurlers here if they had the pick: Jon Harris (who went 29th overall) or Kyle Funkhouser (who went 35th overall).  Also still on the board was well-regarded HS pitcher Mike Nikorak, who went just after Ward.  I’m not complaining about the loss of this pick as I did with the Rafael Soriano signing; just pointing out how things could have gone otherwise.

Round 2: Andrew Stevenson, OF (CF).  COL jr from Louisiana State.  Slashed .305/.358/.376 across 3 levels, getting promoted up to Hagerstown relatively quickly.  16/30 K/BB in 214 Abs, 1 homer, 23SBs in 55 games.  Stevenson so far is pretty much what we expected; a speedy plus defender in center with blazing speed (nearly a half a SB per game), little pop but a decent bat.  He had very few strikeouts (just 16 in 214 ABs across 55 games): a great trait for a guy who probably profiles as a lead-off hitter.  I’d like to see better OBP though going forward.  Whether this translates to MLB production eventually remains to be seen, but so far so good.  Trending Up.

Round 2: Blake Perkins, OF (CF) from Verrado HS, Buckeye, Ariz.  Slashed .210/.265/.281  in the Rookie league, with 36/13 K/BB in 166 Abs, 1 hr, 4sbs.  Somewhat disappointing debut for Perkins, who some had pegged as an even better prospect than Stevenson.  We’ll chalk this up to a youngster facing pro pitching for the first time.  His first full season should be telling, though its hard to see him breaking camp with a full-season squad after this debut.  Odds are he’ll be in XST until June and then will give Short-A a try.  Post-posting update: thanks to AndrewR in the comments section for the Baseball America 2015 Nats Draft class review link, where it is pointed out that Perkins was asked to start switch hitting this year.  Well no wonder his average was so low.  A quick look at his splits: .111/.122/.222 versus lefties (going just 5 for 45), .248/.316/.306 versus righties.  Now, what’s kind of odd about that split line is this: he already batted R when drafted and *added* a lefty swing … so why was the slash line so bad versus lefties?  You’d think the split would have been the other way around?  I could not find traditional splits as a L or as a R on either fangraphs or milb.com; not sure if I just missed them or if Perkins started switch hitting later in the year.  Either way, you have to give his overall split line a pass.   Trending steady.

Round 3: Rhett Wiseman, OF (corner), COL jr from Vanderbilt.  Slashed .248/.307/.376 in Short-A with 52/18 K/BB in 210 Abs, 5 homers.   Honestly, I would have expected a bit more from Wiseman, a very polished college hitter from a good program.  Just 5 homers in 210 ABs?  I know the NY-Penn is a pitchers league … but that’s just one homer every 42 ABs.  He profiled as a power-hitting corner outfielder out of college; is this what he can be?  Milb.com reports that he played a lot of CF, which would be a nice little bonus if he could stay at the position.  Trending steady.

Round 4: Mariano Rivera Jr, rhp COL sr from Iona.  1-2, 5.45 ERA in Short-A with 26/3 K/BB in 33IP (19 app, 3 starts).  2.70 FIP, .388 babip.  Rivera was tried as a starter and quickly failed, getting moved to the pen, where he was much better.  Starter ERA: 13.00.  Reliever ERA: 2.63.  His seasonal ERA isn’t nearly as bad as it looks thanks to some bad luck; his FIP is good and his K/BB rate looks good as well.  He profiles like his father; slight, live arm, good stuff as a reliever.  I can see him moving up the ladder as a back-of-the-bullpen reliever.   Perhaps a disappointment that a 4th round pick was relegated to the bullpen after just three starts … but could be a quick moving arm on a team that clearly needs them.  Trending Up.

Round 5: Taylor Hearn, lhp COL jr from Oklahoma Baptist.  1-5, 3.56 in the GCL Short-A with a 38/13 K/BB in 43ip (10/10 starts), 3.40 fip, .346 babip.  (Editor note: he was in Auburn most of the year; he just started in GCL briefly).Perhaps too old to be in the GCL, but was decent nonetheless in 10 starts.    Nothing earth shattering here; I would like to have seen him going against other college hitters in Short-A frankly.  We’ll see what he does next year.    Hearn joined his fellow lefty first 10 round starters in the Auburn rotation and was completely effective, averaging nearly a K/inning with decent control.  He’s done nothing to jeopardize his advancement for 2016 and should compete for a low-A rotation gig.  Trending steady.

Round 6: Matt Crownover, lhp COL jr. from Clemson.  1-4, 3.81 ERA in Short-A with 34/9 K/BB in 49.2 ip (13 app, 10 starts), 3.40 fip, .301 babip.  As with Hearn’s numbers, nothing bad but nothing mind blowing out of Crownover’s numbers in Short-A.  Not a bad return for an under-slot ACC lefty starter.  I like the 4-1 K/BB ratio.  Trending steady.

Round 7: Grant Borne, lhp COL jr from Nicholls State.  1-4, 3.59 in Short-A with 32/7 K/BB in 47.2 ip (15 apps, 5 starts), 2.99 fip, .321 babip.  Its amazing how similar Hearn, Crownover and Borne’s numbers were, each profiling as a command/control lefty starter in Short-A.  Trending steady.

Round 8: Koda Glover, rhp COL sr from Oklahoma State. 1-1, 1.80 ERA across 2 levels, getting promoted to Low-A.  38/2 K/BB in 30 ip (19app), 2.44 fip, .288 babips in LowA where he spent most of the year.  38 to 2 (!!)  K/BB ratio in 30 innings.  That’s great.  No wonder he was an over-slot deal.  Glover profiled very well and should be in the mix for a High-A bullpen slot in 2016 already.  Trending Up.

Round 9: David Kerian, 1b COL sr from Illinois.  Slashed .251/.336/.338 in Short-A with 41/25 K/BB in 195 Abs, 0 homers.  Kerian signed for just $25k in the first of the Nats two big “save bonus money senior draftee” picks.  Zero homers as a first baseman and a .338 slugging?  That’s just not going to do it.  Trending Down.

Round 10: Taylor Guilbeau, lhp COL sr  from Alabama. 3-3, 3.54 in the GCL mostly in Short-A with 31/9 K/BB in 51 ip (11/10 starts) .2.89 fip, .356 babip.  Another senior sign, Gilbeau was 3-4 years older than his competition in the GCL yet “only” struck out 31 in 51 innings.  He may struggle to find a full-season job next year (what with all the other college lefties being drafted) and could quickly find himself out of organized ball.  Trending Down.  Turns out, I mis-read Guilbeau’s assignment; he was in Auburn basically the entire year and his FIP looks solid based on his competition.  I’m amending this report to say he’s Trending Steady based on his 2015.

Round 11: Andrew Lee, RHP COL jr from Tennessee.  Posted a 5-1, 1.63 ERA across 3 levels, ending up in Hagerstown.  47/10 K/BB in 38.2 innings (16/5 starts), 2.19 fip, .250 babip in lowA where he spent most of his time.  An intriguing arm for sure and more than held his own in 5 Low-A starts.  He’s in the mix for the Hagerstown 2016 rotation.  Trending Up.

Round 12: Tommy Peterson RHP COL jr  from South Florida.  0-0, 2.66 in Auburn with 13/4 K/BB in 20 relief innings, 2.83 fip, .318 babip as part time closer.   Not too many innings to judge on here; looks like a good option for the Hagerstown 2016 bullpen.  Trending steady.

Round 13: Max Schrock, COL jr from South Carolina.  Slashed .308/.355/.448  in Short-A with 16/13 K/BB in 172 Abs, 2 homers.  Drafted as a 2B, played mostly SS.  Schrock was the big over-slot deal the team signed in 2015, getting $400k over-slot as a 13th rounder (the rough equivalent of a mid 4th rounder).  He hit pretty well in Short-A in his debut too, with a good OPS figure for a middle infielder who made a ton of contact (just 16 Ks) but also needs to work on his batting eye (just 13 walks).  Trending Up.

Round 14: Mack Lemieux LHP from Jupiter Community HS (FL): did not sign, never seemed like he was even close to signing from articles and twitter.  Committed to Florida Atlantic University (FAU).

Round 15: Kevin Mooney,  RHP COL jr from UofMaryland.  1-0, 5.40 ERA in Short-A with a 15/13 K/bb in 21.2 innings, 4.95 fip, .333 babip.  Not a great debut for the local kid Mooney, who was last seen blowing both super-regional games that enabled UVA to surprisingly make its way to the CWS (where even more surprisingly they ended up winning).  Far, far too many walks given how many punch-outs he had, his FIP was still way up there even given a BABIP not really that out of line.  Needs to step it up if he wants a full-season job.  Trending Down.

Round 16: Ian Sagdal, SS COL sr  from Washington State U.  Slashed .235/.323/.327 in Short-A with 36/20 K/BB in 162 Abs, 1 homer, 1 SB.  Played mostly 2B per milb.com despite being drafted as a SS.  No power, little speed evident, tough season in Auburn for Sagdal.  With the collection of middle infielders the Nats drafted in 2015 plus the rising DSL guys, Sagdal may not be long for the system.  Trending Down.

Round 17: Dalton Dulin, 2B from Northwest Mississippi CC.  Slashed .273/.410/.354 in Short-A 21/18 K/BB in 99 AB as part time 2B.  Not too bad for a younger guy in short-A ball.  Trending steady.

Round 18: Melvin Rodriguez 2B COL sr from Jackson State U. (MS).  Slashed .200/.294/.282 in Short-A with 17/15 K/BB in 110ABs, 0hr, 0sb as part time 2B.  Well, if you’re not going to hit for power, you need some speed.  And if you can’t show speed, you should show a good hit-tool.  Rodriguez didn’t show much of anything this year and may not make it out of spring next year.  Trending Down.

Round 19: Clayton Brandt SS COL sr from MidAmerica Nazarene U (KS).  Slashed just .193/.304/.261 in the Rookie league, with a 28/10 k/bb in 88 Abs, 0 hr as SS.  Not good, especially as a 22-yr old.  Trending Down.

Round 20: John Reeves C, COL sr  from Rice (TX): did not sign.  Despite being listed as a “College Senior” he really was a 4th year junior and opted to return for his 5th year.

Round 21: Matt Pirro, Matt RHP COL sr  from Wake Forest.  0-0 3.71 ERA  across two levels, ending in Short-A.   14/11 k/bb in 17ip, 4.52 fip, .372 babip in short-A.  Not great numbers; too many walks, but his ERA/FIP likely the result of a bit of unlucky babip.  In a battle to stay employed though going into next year by virtue of his senior sign status.   Trending Down.

Round 22: Adam Boghosian RHP COL 5s from North Greenville U. (SC).  3-0, 4.28 era across 2 levels with 16/18 k/bb in 27ip, 5.59 fip, .162 babip in short-A.  Anytime you have more walks than strike-outs, its a bad thing.  And he posted a mediocre ERA despite an unbelievably low babip; his numbers are likely even worse with a longer sample size.  Another senior sign that may get the axe once full-season rosters get set next spring.  Trending Down.

Round 23: Alec Rash, RHP COL jr from Missouri: did not sign.  Rash has barely pitched while in College and was a better bet to try to regain some draft value by pitching a full senior season.

Round 24: Blake Smith RHP COL jr  West Virginia: did not sign.  Listed in some places as a senior but WVU’s site lists him as a junior, so he still has eligibility and opted not to sign so as to increase his draft status with a good senior season.

Round 25: Calvin Copping RHP COL jr from Cal. State Northridge.  1-2, 4.76 ERA in the GCL 14/5 K/BB in 17ip, 4.01 fip, .305 babip.  So-So numbers for a college guy in the rookie league.  As with his fellow middle-of-the-road senior sign pitchers, he needs to show more dominance if he wants a job out of spring 2016.  Trending Down.

Round 26: Russell Harmening. RHP COL jr Westmont Coll (CA).  1-0, 2.86 ERA in the GCL with 16/4 K/BB in 22ip, 3.26 fip, .303 babip.  Better numbers than Copping or Pirro or Boghosian, so we’ll give him a leg up in next year’s bullpen competitions.  Trending steady.

Round 27: Ryan Brinley, RHP COL jr from Sam Houston State U. (TX).  Was 1-4 1.44 ERA  across 3 levels this year with a 16/1 K/BB in 31.1 ip, 3.85 fip, .292 babip in low-A (where he ended up).  Great 27th round find so far in Brinley, who may not have a ton of swing and miss but certainly seems to have some command (1 BB in 31 innings??).  Could be a nice little middle relief option going forward, someone who can keep his team in games.  Trending Up.

Round 28: Mick Van Vossen RHP COL sr from Michigan State U.  0-2, 4.83 ERA  across 2 levels.  23/13 K/BB in 31.2 ip, 4.09 fip, .260 babip in GCL (where he spent most of the year).  Nothing too special here; struggled when he got to Auburn but only had 6ip there.  Needs to show a better K/BB ratio to compete next  year.  Trending steady.

Round 29: Philip Diedrick OF COL sr  Western Kentucky U.  Slashed just .146/.208/.292  in the GCL with 33/6 k/bb in 89 Abs, 4 hr as LF.  Not a good season for Deidrick at all, striking out a third of the time with little in the way of average or OBP to show for it.  Trending Down.

Round 30: Jorge Pantoja RHP COL jr Alabama State U.  1-1, 5.84 ERA in the GCL, 11/3 K/BB in 12ip, 2.74fip, .395 babip.  Looks like some potential there with a K/inning and a FIP that flatters  his ERA.  Probably needs more time.  Trending steady.

Round 31: Nick Sprengel LHP from El Dorado HS (CA): did not sign.  A strong commitment to the U of San Diego, Sprengel was never likely to sign.

Round 32: Dalton DiNatale 3B COL jr Arizona State U.   Slashed just .232/.326/.341  in the GCL 23/10 K/bb in 82abs, 1 hr, 2 sbs.  I would have expected more from a Pac-12 hitter in the GCL.  Trending Down.

Round 33: Angelo La Bruna SS COL 5S  from U. Southern California.  Slashed .269/.303/.355 in the GCL with 15/3 k/bb in 93 Abs, 0 homers.  Drafted as a SS but played 1B; anytime you have a 5th year senior in the rookie league who hits zero homers, warning flags go up.  Trending Down.

Round 34: Tyler Watson LHP from Perry HS (AZ).  1-1, 0.00 ERA  and 16/4 k/bb in 13ip, 1.81 fip, .226 babip in the GCL.  The Nats final over-slot signee ($300k over slot likely on top of the $100k you can throw at any post 10th rounder compensates him on a par as a mid 4th rounder), Watson did not disappoint.  He’s young but he looked dominant in his first pro innings.  I’ll bet he stays in XST and debuts next year on a short-A squad.  Trending Up.

Round 35: Coco Montes SS from Coral Gables HS (FL): did not sign.  Montes honored his commitment to South Florida.

Round 36: Taylor Bush SS from The Linfield School (CA): did not sign.  Bush honored his commitment to Westmont College.

Round 37: Steven DiPuglia SS from Cooper City HS (FL): did not sign.  DiPuglia  honored his commitment to Western Kentucky.

Round 38: Matt Morales SS from Wellington Community HS (FL): did not sign.  Morales honored his commitment to Stetson University.

Round 39: Jake Jefferies 2B COL jr  from Cal. State Fullerton.  Slashed .241/.276/.296  in Short-A.  5/2 K/BB in 54ABs, 0 homers, 3 steals in part time MIF.  Zero power.  Good bat control though.  The Nats have drafted Jefferies multiple times so they clearly see something in him; he sticks around for a bit even given his unimpressive 2015 campaign.  Trending steady.

Round 40: Parker Quinn 1B from The Benjamin School (FL): did not sign.  Quinn honored his commitment to Hofstra.

 

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Trending Summary:

• Trending Up (7): Stevenson, Rivera, Glover, Lee, Schrock, Brinley, Watson
  
• Trending steady (11): Perkins, Wiseman, Hearn, Crownover, Borne, Peterson, Dulin, Harmening, Van Vossen, Pantoja, Jefferies
• Trending Down (12): Kerian, Guilbeau, Mooney, Sagdal, Rodriguez, Brandt, Pirro, Boghosian, Copping, Deitrick, DiNatale, La Bruna
  
• Did Not Sign (10): Lemieux, Reeves, Rash, Smith, Sprengel, Montes, Bush, DiPuglia, Morales, Quinn

Executive Summary

I like what I see out of a handful of guys, and its great to see a couple of the lower-draft pick guys pop up a bit.  I want to see more out of Perkins and Wiseman in particular; their success makes or breaks this draft.  The three over-slot guys (Glover, Schrock, Watsh) all performed well, indicating great use of those funds by the Nats brain-trust.

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PS: I created an XLS to do this analysis; if you prefer, you can look at it in Google XLS or use the select cut-n-pasted info below:

Round	Player/Pos	2015 Level	Basic Stats
2	Andrew Stevenson, of	GCL-Short-A->LowA	.305/.358/.376
2	Blake Perkins, of	GCL	.210/.265/.281
3	Rhett Wiseman, of	Short-A	.248/.307/.376
4	Mariano Rivera, rhp	Short-A	1-2, 5.45
5	Taylor Hearn, lhp	GCL	1-5, 3.56
6	Matt Crownover, lhp	Short-A	1-4, 3.81
7	Grant Borne, lhp	Short-A	1-4, 3.59
8	Koda Glover, rhp	Short-A -> LowA	1-1, 1.80
9	David Kerian, 1b	Short-A	.251/.336/.338
10	Taylor Guilbeau, lhp	GCL	3-3, 3.54
11	Lee, Andrew RHP	GCL-Short-A->LowA	5-1, 1.63 ERA
12	Peterson, Tommy RHP	Short-A	0-0, 2.66
13	Schrock, Max 2B	Short-A	.308/.355/.448
14	Lemieux, Mack LHP	did not sign
15	Mooney, Kevin RHP	Short-A	1-0, 5.40 ERA
16	Sagdal, Ian SS	Short-A	.235/.323/.327
17	Dulin, Dalton 2B	Short-A	.273/.410/.354
18	Rodriguez, Melvin 2B	Short-A	.200/.294/.282
19	Brandt, Clayton SS	GCL	.193/.304/.261
20	Reeves, John C	did not sign
21	Pirro, Matt RHP	GCL -> ShortA	0-0 3.71 ERA
22	Boghosian, Adam RHP	GCL -> ShortA	3-0, 4.28 era
23	Rash, Alec RHP	did not sign
24	Smith, Blake RHP	did not sign
25	Copping, Calvin RHP	GCL	1-2, 4.76 ERA
26	Harmening, Russell RHP	GCL	1-0, 2.86 ERA
27	Brinley, Ryan RHP	GCL-Short-A->LowA	1-4 1.44 ERA
28	Vanvossen, Mick RHP	GCL -> ShortA	0-2, 4.83 ERA
29	Diedrick, Philip OF	GCL	.146/.208/.292
30	Pantoja, Jorge RHP	GCL	1-1, 5.84 ERA
31	Sprengel, Nick LHP	did not sign
32	DiNatale, Dalton 3B	GCL	.232/.326/.341
33	La Bruna, Angelo SS	GCL	.269/.303/.355
34	Watson, Tyler LHP	GCL	1-1, 0.00 ERA
35	Montes, Coco SS	did not sign
36	Bush, Taylor SS	did not sign
37	DiPuglia, Steven SS	did not sign
38	Morales, Matt SS	did not sign
39	Jefferies, Jake 2B	Short-A	.241/.276/.296
40	Quinn, Parker 1B	did not sign

As we did for the 2013 draft, and again in 2014, here’s a quick introduction to the Nats top 10 picks for 2015.

Here’s a slew of Draft Prospect rankings that I’ll refer to later on.

• Keith Law‘s Top 100 Ranking
• MLB’s Late may top 200 draft prospect rankings.
• Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects
• MinorLeagueBall’s top 400 draft prospects
• MLBDraftReport’s top 500 with write-ups
• Chris Crawford (now Baseballprospectus.com) top 100 draft prospects (behind a paywall)
• Scout.com’s Jeff Ellis 1-35 draft prospect rankings and 36-75 rankings (some scout.com stuff is behind the pay-wall)

As he did last year, NatsGM.com‘s Ryan Sullivan live-blogged the draft and does a great job of pulling up stats and observations on each pick.

Draft Links of importance

• MLB.com Official 2015 Draft Central home page.
• MLB’s Awesome Draft Tracker; you can slice and dice the draft 10 different ways, search by schools and home states, etc.
• Official MLB 2015 Draft Order (Nats first pick is #58 well into the 2nd round, next #69, then #103, then #134 in the 4th round, and then 134+30 picks there-after.
• Official Draft Bonus Pool totals.  Astros have $17M (most).  Nats have 3rd least at $4.1M.
• MLB Draft Database
• Fangraphs Sortable Draft Board; a great new tool Fangraphs has that lets you slice and dice their top draft board.
• Baseball-Reference Draft Tools: links to their draft database plus some custom reports.
• Baseball America’s Draft Database for 2015; this will get updated with bonus amounts when the players sign.

 

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Lets get to it!

1st round/#26 overall: in what would have been the Nationals first round pick had they not signed Max Scherzer and forfeited their pick, the Los Angeles Angels went way off-board and picked Taylor Ward, a Catcher from Fresno State.  He’s not even in Keith Law’s top 100 and is mostly in the 75-100 range of other ranking services, and players like Mike Nikorak, John Harris, Kyle Funkhouser, Daz Cameron and Mike Matuella (a Nationals special; a big righty with power and a Tommy John surgery) still on the board.  Unlike two years ago when I complained bitterly about the loss of the 1st rounder, here Scherzer is more than proving his worth and I’m not as worried about the loss of this pick in a weak draft.  But I wouldn’t have minded seeing how Harris or Funkhouser worked out.

2nd round/#57 overall: Andrew Stevenson, Jr. OF (CF) from LSU (hometown Youngsville, LA).  Rankings: Law outside #100, MLB #79, BA #168, Sickels #101, Draft Rpt #115.  A slightly built slap hitter who plays excellent CF for LSU but, from my limited observations, looks like he’s destined to be a spare outfielder at best.   More than one of the above draft guides mentioned Ben Revere as a comparison.  (This was the comp pick for last year’s non-signing of Andrew Suarez … who went 4 picks later).  FWIW, Law said he “fell out of his chair” when he saw the Nats taking him here.  I can only surmise what the team sees here; perhaps they got a deal on him and will apply some of the savings down the road.

2nd round/#69 overall: Blake Perkins, Prep OF (CF) from Verrado AZ HS (hometown: Phoenix, AZ).  Rankings: Law #96, MLB #162, BA #137, Sickels #148, Draft Rpt #283.  Perkins profiles similarly to Stevenson: slight build, very fast, great fielder, decent arm and a questionable hit tool.  He’s committed to Arizona State and hails from the Phoenix suburbs.  For what its worth, in Keith Law’s post-round 2 write-up, he specifically called out this pick as being a very good one.  But, he’s still *way* overdrafted according to most of the rankings.

3rd Round/#103 overall: Rhett Wiseman, Jr. OF (corner) from Vanderbilt (Hometown Mansfield, MA).  Rankings: Law outside #100, MLB #120, BA #88, Sickels #92, Draft Rpt #146.  Developed big-time power his junior year at Vanderbilt.  Probably projects as a LF but is no bigger than the CF draftees the Nats already have picked.

4th round/#134 overall: Mariano Rivera, JR, Jr. RHP (starter) from Iona (Hometown Harrison NY by way of the D.R.)  Rankings: Law #93, MLB #170, BA #142, Sickels #215, Draft Rp #198.  Well, you can’t argue with the pedigree.  He’s stepped it up this year as a junior with a huge velocity spike and *will* sign, but he barely weighs more than my labrador and one wonders if he can withstand the rigors if pitching in the pros.  Very little mileage on the arm (he didn’t pitch until he got to college reportedly).  Interesting pick.

5th round/#164 overall: Taylor Hearn, Jr. LHP  starter from Oklahoma Baptist (Hometown Royse City, TX).  Rankings: … well, nobody ranked this kid.  Not even on the top 500 prospect list.  He was 9-0 for the NAIA team with good K/9 rates.  Not much else to be said.  The Nats have drafted twice before players from this school (Richie Mirowski and Matthew Page) with decent success and clearly have a scout working that area with success.  Is this a signability/money saving pick?  But for whom?  Perkins?

6th round/#194 overall: Matt Crownover, Jr. LHP starter from Clemson (Hometown: Ringgold, Ga.).  Rankings: BA #344, Draft Rpt #161.  Great numbers at Clemson: 10-3 with a 1.82 ERA.  Tommy John survivor, undersized.  Perhaps projects as a future reliever.

7th round/ #224 overall: Grant Borne, Jr. LHP starter from Nichols State (Hometown: Baton Rouge, LA).  BA #348, otherwise unranked.  Another mystery player.  6-5 with a 1.48 ERA as a starter for Nichols State.

8th round/#254 overall: Koda Glover, Sr. RHP Oklahoma State (Hometown: Heavener, OK).  Sickels #297, otherwise unranked.  Glover was a back-end reliever for Oklahoma State, having transferred in after two years at Juco.  MLB says he’s a senior, OK State says he’s a junior.  Either way, he’s a reliever who could be quicker to the majors, which isn’t too bad a pick for the 8th round.

9th round/#284 overall: David Kerian, Sr. switch hitting 1B from Illinois (Hometown: Dakota Dunes, SD).  He hit .366 with 14 homers on the year for one of the best teams in the country.  Not a bad pick.

10th round/#314 overall: Taylor Guilbeau, Sr lefty starter from Alabama (Hometown Slaughter, LA): nice sign here, getting a Friday starter in the SEC.  3-6 with a 3.69 ERA on his senior season, which ended in the SEC playoffs for Alabama this year.

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Breakdown by position:

• Three outfielders, two definite CFs and one corner OF.
• One 1B who could feature as a corner OF
• Five college starters: four LHP and one RHP
• One college reliever (RHP)

His first three picks were outfielders … then 6 of the next 7 were arms.  Mostly left-handed college starters.  How many of these starters will profile as pro relievers?  Probabaly a few of them; Rivera for sure, likely Crownover, probably Guilbeau as well.

Breakdown by Player Demographic

• One Prep/HS player
• Six College Juniors, all four-year college picks
• Three College Seniors, all from four-year colleges

Well, Rizzo likes college grads, and this shows it.  ONE prep player out of his first 10 picks.

Breakdown by Region

• Southeastern US: 1 from LSU, 1 from Vanderbilt, 1 from Clemson, 1 from Nichols State, 1 from Alabama
• Midwest: 1 from Oklahoma Baptist, 1 from Oklahoma State, 1 from Illinois
• Southwest: 1 from Arizona
• Northeast: 1 from Iona College

Its amazing to me, year after year we seem to see this.  The Nats draft so heavily from the southeast and midwest.  Meanwhile, everyone knows that the two best states for prospects are California and Florida.  If you look at the home towns of these top 10 picks, still nobody from the two major baseball states and just one guy who hails from Texas.  I guess Rizzo really trusts his area scouts down there.

Summary

Well, like in 2013 when you don’t have a 1st round pick … you’re not likely to end up with a name that you’ve heard in the pre-draft coverage.  And I hadn’t heard of practically any of these guys prior to seeing their names read.  Picks 8-10 seem like typical low-value senior signs, but you have to wonder where the draft bonus dollars are going here.  Is everyone signing for slot?  Are there any risky picks here?

The MLB rule-4 (Amateur) draft starts on Monday 6/8/15 at 7pm.  See MLB Network for the best coverage.  Since we’re also going to be talking about prep regional results and CWS results early next week, I thought i’d get this draft coverage post out there.  This post has good links to use to see draft prospect rankings, then links to help cover the draft starting monday, then some blurbs on local players of interest, and then links to a bunch of mock drafts.

Draft Coverage so far at NAR for 2015:

• here was our 2015 pre-season local player link.
• the shake-up at the top of draft boards with the news of Aiken and locally-tied Matuella‘s TJ surgeries in March.

Here’s a slew of Draft Prospect rankings : these are NOT the same as mock drafts; see further down for those.

• D1baseball HS top 100 players with commitments (most of it behind a pay-wall)
• Keith Law‘s Early top 50 draft prospects
• MLB’s initial top 50 draft prospects
• Jon Sickels early draft thoughts.
• Kiley McDaniels early draft rankings.
• MLB’s Late may top 200 draft prospect rankings.
• Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects
• MinorLeagueBall’s top 400 draft prospects
• Chris Crawford (now Baseballprospectus.com) top 100 draft prospects
• Scout.com’s Jeff Ellis 1-35 draft prospect rankings and 36-75 rankings (some scout.com stuff is behind the pay-wall)
• D1Baseball.com’s Top 150 Draft Prospects (mostly behind a paywall)
• MLBDraftReport’s top 500 with write-ups…

Draft Links of importance

• MLB.com Official 2015 Draft Central home page.
• MLB’s Awesome Draft Tracker; you can slice and dice the draft 10 different ways, search by schools and home states, etc.
• Official MLB 2015 Draft Order (Nats first pick is #58 well into the 2nd round, next #69, then #103, then #134 in the 4th round, and then 134+30 picks there-after.
• Official Draft Bonus Pool totals.  Astros have $17M (most).  Nats have 3rd least at $4.1M.
• MLB Draft Database
• Fangraphs Sortable Draft Board; a great new tool Fangraphs has that lets you slice and dice their top draft board.
• Baseball-Reference Draft Tools: links to their draft database plus some custom reports.

Now, some news about College Players with local ties

• Nathan Kirby Lat strain Press Release: UVA’s ace Kirby, considered a mid-to-late 1st rounder, missed a huge chunk of the season with a Lat Strain.  If the cards fall right, he may be able to pitch UVA’s 3rd regional game.  MLB has him ranked #26, as does BA.
• Mike Matuella, of Great Falls (Georgetown Prep) and Duke, remains a back-end of the 1st round draft prospect but is also rehabbing his own TJ surgery.  He has far less of a track record than other college arms, and may be a crap shoot in the draft.  MLB has him ranked #28, BA #23.
• Taylor Clarke, who hails from Ashburn (Broad Run HS), was named the CAA pitcher of the year while putting up stellar numbers for the College of Charleston, a trendy underdog pick to reach the CWS.  MLB has him ranked #144, so that’s perhaps a 4th-5th rounder, while BA has him higher at #118.  Here’s a draft profile of him from scout.com.
• Joe McCarthy, OF for UVA, missed most of the season with a back injury and then hit horribly after wards.  His draft stock has dropped from a supp-1st to probably the back end of the 2nd round.  MLB has him ranked #68, BA #46.
• Josh Sborz got dumped out of UVA’s rotation but still is ranked #115 in MLB’s pre-draft rankings (projecting to a 3rd-4th rounder).
• Brandon Waddell had a good season as UVA’s #2 starter … and MLB projects him as a 5th rounder at #163.  BA has him at #153.
• University of Maryland’s two best draft prospects are Alex Robinson (MLB ranked #124) and Brandon Lowe (MLB ranked #148).  Robinson is #74 on BA’s top 500 list and Lowe is #98 on BA’s list.
• Radford’s Michael Boyle has pushed his draft stock up with his team’s post-season performance; BA has him ranked #132, which puts him in the 4th-5th round.

Local Prep players of note:

• Cody Morris, probably the best local player matriculating this year, had to undergo TJ surgery and likely scuttling his draft plans.  Luckily he had already taken a scholarship offer to South Carolina, where he will now presumably attend and rehab to get ready for the 2016 season.  BA still has him ranked #265 but the odds of a team taking him in the 8th round seem slim.
• A.J. Lee of St. Johns earned his 2nd straight Gatorade DC player of the year award and remains committed to Maryland; I do not sense he is a significant draft prospect and will go to College.  He is not in BA’s top 500 prospects.
• Ljay Newsome of Chopticon (south of Waldorf) made some noise with his stellar 3-A state final game; he has not picked a college and I wonder if he’s headed for the draft.  He is not in BA’s top 500 prospects.
• Nic Enright of Steward HS in Richmond (2015 Gatorade player of the year) is signed to Va Tech but ranked #132 by MLB.  Will he sign if he gets 3rd round money?  BA’s got him ranked far lower; #230, in the range of draft rankings where it makes more sense for him to go to school.

Other players of interest to Nats fans:

• Andrew Suarez, the Nats’ 2nd round pick of last year, had a decent if not spectacular senior season at Miami and may end up getting picked right in the same spot.  MLB has him #75, BA #73.
• Austin Byler, the Nats’ 9th round pick of last year, is ranked #199 by MLB (but much higher at #115 by BA) putting him in the 7th round or so.  Not too much of an improvement over last year; his senior season was more of the same for him; lots of power, perhaps stuck at 1B so will really have to hit his way moving forward.
• Skye Bolt, the Nats’ 26th round pick in 2012, had a great UNC career and is ranked #67 by MLB ahead of the draft.  BA has him a bit lower at #106.  Maybe the Nats can draft him again since this is right around where their first 2015 draft pick falls.

Mock Draft Guesses

Sometimes you just can’t help yourself.  I like mock drafts from writers I like.  Since the Nats don’t pick until midway through the 2nd round, there’s no point (like in years’ past) in trying to project the Nats pick.  So here’s some popular pundits and their mocks, with their top 5 predictions (Law = Espn, McDaniel = Fangraphs, Callis & Mayo = Mlb.com, Manual = Baseball America and Crawford = Baseball Prospectus)

• Keith Law Mock #1: Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Dillon Tate, Brendan Rodgers, Kyle Tucker
• Keith Law Mock #2: Swanson, Rodgers, Tyler Jay, Tate, Tucker
• Keith Law Mock #3 (on ESPN podcast): Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
• Keith Law final Mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Trenton Clark, Andrew Benintendi
• Kiley McDaniel Mock #1: Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Kyle Funkhouser, Daz Cameron
• Kiley McDaniel Mock #2: Swanson, Rodgers, Jay, Bregman, Tucker
• Kiley McDaniel Mock #3: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
• Jim Callis Mock #1: Swanson, Rodgers, Jay, Cameron, Carson Fulmer
• Jim Callis Mock #2: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Cameron, Tucker
• Jim Callis: Final Mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Benintendi
• Jonathan Mayo Mock #1: Tate, Rodgers, Swanson, Cameron, Fulmer
• Jonathan Mayo Mock #2: Swanson, Rodgers, Jay, Cameron, Tate
• Jonathan Mayo Final Mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Cameron, Tate
• John Manual Mock #1: Tate, Swanson, Rodgers, Jon Harris, Tucker
• John Manual Mock #2: Fulmer, Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
• John Manual Mock #3: Jay, Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
• John Manual Mock #4: Swanson, Bregman, Jay, Rodgers, Cameron
• Jeff Ellis/Scout.com Final Mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
• David Rawnsley/si.com final mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Cameron
• Chris Crawford Mock #1: Garrett Whitley, Swanson, Rodgers, … the rest behind a pay-wall.
• Ryan Sullivan/NatsGM final mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
• D1baseball.com Mock #1: Swanson … and the rest behind a pay-wall.
• Jon Sickels/MinorLeagueBall Mock #1: Swanson, Bregman, Jay, Rodgers, Tucker
• PerfectGame.org’s mock drafts and coverage now behind a pay-wall.

Todd Boss’ Mock draft?  Based on my vast level of expertise (sarcasm) and the thousands of man hours i’ve put in scouting players in person and cultivating industry sources (also sarcasm), I’ll take this as my guess for the top 5:

1. Swanson: I think Swanson’s post-season hitting combined with his positional flexibility and the decline of all the upper-end college arms that have been mentioned in the conversation for 1-1 (First Aiken & Matuella, then Tate, then Funkhouser and Fulmer) has cemented Swanson’s spot at 1-1.  In other years, he’d be lucky to go in the top 10.  Not this year.  Arizona goes with the least risk; proven college hitter.
2. Bregman: practically every connected pundit now has Bregman going 2nd.  Houston gets a sure thing and goes prep with #5.
3. Rodgers: Houston hasn’t backed away from HS players before and get the best one, a SS with power, at #2.
4. Tate: Tate’s regional performance pushed him back into this lofty level and he’s a better bet than Jay thanks to his reliever status all year.  Colorado likes college arms this high.  He makes the most sense.  If this pick isn’t Tate, its Jay.
5. Tucker: practically everyone has Houston’s 2nd pick on Tucker, meaning they’re taking two upper-end prep talents.  Plus the Astros know the family; Kyle’s older brother Preston was a 7th round pick by Houston in 2012 and made his debut this year.  Makes too much sense.

So, just so you know, this guess matches the final mocks of Law, McDaniel and Ellis, and is nearly identical to the final mocks of a couple others.

This top 5 means some big time names are available 6-10.  Cameron, Jay, Fulmer, Clark and Harris could very well be in the next 4-5 guys picked.  Funkhouser seems to be slipping.  Also throw the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Tyler Stephenson, and Walker Buehler into the top 10 possible mix.

ACTUAL DRAFT Results added on 6/7/15: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker.  A number of the experts above had the top 5 pegged.  Yours truly … changed his prediction last minute to match the consensus and “got it right” too 🙂

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2015:

• College Baseball 2015 Previews and pre-season Rankings
• Regular Season Wrap up for DC Local College teams
• Field of 64 announcement

Now we’re through the Regionals and the field has been winnowed from 64 to just 16.

College CWS tournament references:

• Baseball America’s Regional Roundup
• d1baseball’s tournament Post season Index
• d1baseball.com’s Tournament Summary page
• d1baseball’s Regional participant information
• d1baseball.com’s daily scoreboard
• CollegeBaseballDaily.com has coverage as well.
• Ncaa.com’s interactive full 64-team bracket

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We’ll review the 16 regionals in order of the national seeds.  Bold is the host city, Blue is the host team and Red is the winner.  We’ll also highlight significant players and/or guys who are big names in the upcoming draft as we get to them (MLBpipeline.com summarizes their top 200 ranked players here: i’ll just talk about the 1st round talents and players w/ local ties).

1. In the Los Angeles regional (host: #1 seed UCLA), the big story wasn’t the tourney’s #1 overall seed, but lowly #3 seed Maryland, who upset SEC power Ole Miss and then handled the #1 team in the land 4-1 to advance to the regional final.  UCLA made its way through the loser’s bracket and beat Maryland on 5/31/15, setting up a winner-take-all game to advance on 6/1, but Maryland prevailed in a 2-1 nailbiter.  This sets up a most amazing super-regional matchup; read on.
2. In the Baton Rouge regional (host: #2 seed LSU), #2 overall seed LSU breezed into the region final, where they beat UNC-Wilmington 2-0 to advance.  Players of note: likely upper 1st round pick Alex Bregman had a relatively quiet regional at the plate.
3. In the Louisville regional (host: #3 seed Louisville), Louisville made quick work of this regional, winning 3 straight games to become one of the first teams to advance.  Ace Kyle Funkhouser was thrown, oddly, in the opener against tiny Morehead State and was good but not great (2ER in 7ip), another sign that his draft stock is falling.  Nonetheless, Louisville did not look stretched in this regional, beating Michigan 13-4 to advance.
   
4. In the Gainesville regional (host: #4 seed Florida), Florida (who I thought could have been the #1 overall seed) made quick work of its regional, defeating each of the other 3 participants en route to a 2-1 victory over Florida Atlantic in the final.
5. In the Coral Gables regional (host: #5 seed Miami), Miami seemed to be in control of the regional, but was stunned by Ivy league champ Columbia, who forced a winner-take-all game on 6/1.  In that final game, Columbia finally ran out of gas and Miami embarrassed the Ivy Leaguers 21-3.  Players of note: Miami’s ace (and Nats 2014 2nd round pick) Andrew Suarez threw 7innings of 2-run ball to get the win in the opener.
6. In the Champaign regional (host: #6 seed Illinois), the host team cruised to the region final, where they face upstart Wright State on 6/1/15.  In the final, Illinois handled Wright State to advance.  Players of note: Illinois closer Tyler Jay,whose usage this season has been deplored by scouts, did not even appear in his team’s first two wins, each a complete game by the starter.  In the region final, he closed out the game and showed off his arm, giving up 1 hit and a walk in four innings of work.  Jay is projected as an upper 1st round pick and a future starter … why he’s not being used as such in college is beyond me.
7. In the Fort Worth regional (host: #7 seed TCU), NC State upset the host team to make the region final, but TCU fought their way out of the losers brack and forced a deciding 6/1/15 game.  After forcing the winner-take-all game, TCU rallied from an 8-1 deficit in the 8th inning to force extra innings and win on a walk-off to advance to the super-regional in perhaps the tourney’s best game.
8. In the Springfield regional (host: #8 seed Missouri State), Missouri State lived up to its national seeding by cruising through the regional without a loss.  Players of note: Missouri State Ace Jon Harris threw 8 innings of 1-run ball to get the win over Canisius in the opener.  Harris has quietly put together a strong year and looks to be a back-of-the first round pick.
9. In the Stillwater regional, (host: #9 seed Oklahoma State), 2nd seeded Arkansas made quick work of the regional, with host Oklahoma State not even making the regional final.  The 4th seeded St. Johns team pushed Arkansas but ultimately lost 4-3.  Players of note: Arkansas projected 1st rounder Andrew Benintendi went 4-11 for the regional but took an o-fer in the regional final.
10. In the College Station regional (host: #10 seed Texas A&M), California (whose baseball program was one step from the grave a few years ago) upset the host to make the regional final, but TAMU forced a deciding 6/1 game.  In that game, TAMU won a well played 3-1 game that had both sides wishing these two teams played more often. 
11. In the Nashville regional (host: #11 seed Vanderbilt), Vanderbilt awaits local team Radford, who lost to Indiana early but got revenge to make the regional final.  In the final though, Radford ran out of gas and Vanderbilt advanced by the amazing score of 21-0.  Players of note: Carson Fulmer pitched 7 innings of 1-run ball in the opener for the victory, potential first overall pick Dansby Swanson connected for his 14th homer in the 2nd game, and Walker Buehler was removed after 5 innings thanks to his team’s 10-run 5th inning.  Note: most of Radford’s squad is VA-based; I’ve never covered players heading there since it isn’t a destination baseball program.  But tourneys like this can lift up a program’s credentials, so we’ll take note of Radford commits more closely going forward.
12. In the Dallas regional (host: #12 seed Dallas Baptist), local entry VCU made some waves early by reaching the winners bracket final, taking out host Dallas Baptist and Oregon State easily.  The host team made its way back to the regional final and has to sweep a 6/1/15 double-header to advance.  DBU forced the winner-take-all game, but VCU outlasted them in the final to be the only #4 seed to advance t his year, and perhaps one of the most unlikely #4 seeds to win a regional in the tournament’s history.  Note:  VCU’s squad is a lot more national than I would have guessed, but do have some players with local ties.
13. In the Tallahassee regional (host: #13 seed Florida State), College of Charleston had to sweep a 6/1 DH from the host to advance, but they couldn’t get going an Florida State advanced easily.  Player of note Taylor Clarke (Ashburn native and Broad Run HS grad) got hit hard in the opener against Auburn but did not factor in the decision.
14. In the Fullerton regional (host: #14 seed Cal State-Fullerton), host Cal State-Fullerton pounded upstart Pepperdine 10-1 to win the regional in three straight games.
15. In the Houston regional (host: #15 seed Houston), host Houston lost a 20-inning heartbreaker to city rival Rice to be eliminated; this was one of those games you see and cringe, because both teams had guys come out of the bullpen to throw 9 innings (as far as I can tell, both teams used mid-week starters, and did not have middle relievers suddenly throwing 110 of the highest leverage pitches of their lives).  Rice has to sweep Louisiana-Lafayette twice on 6/1 on about 6 hours of sleep in order to advance, but couldn’t even win the first, losing 5-2 to send the Rajun’ Cajuns to the super-regional.
16. In the Lake Elsinore regional (host: #16 seed UC Santa Barbara), UVA showed how badly it was under-seeded by advancing to the final by taking two close games.   Connor Jones (Great Bridge HS in Chesapeake) gave up just 1 run in nearly 8 innings to win the opener and Brandon Waddell pitched even better to beat San Diego State.  The regional final was wild, with UVA scoring 3 in the 8th to tie it and then 5 in the 11th to win 14-10 over USC to advance.  In the 3rd game, UVA threw out all kinds of names familiar to readers here: Alec Bettinger (Hylton grad from Woodbridge) got the start but failed to record an out.  He was relieved by Tommy Doyle (Vienna VA, Flint Hill) and got the game to UVA’s middle relievers.  Josh Sborz finished all three wins off.  Joe McCarthy struggled on the weekend, going just 1-6 in the final.  Nathan Kirby remains sidelined but could return for the Super-Regionals, bad news for whoever they face.  Other players of note in the regional: Upper-1st round draft talent Dillon Tate had 11 strikeouts in 8 innings, but gave up 4 runs and was out-dueled by San Diego State’s Bubba Derby in what was likely his last amateur appearance.  UCSB was badly exposed, getting crushed in its loser’s bracket game and becoming the only seed to go 2-and-out.

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Summary of Regionals statistically:

• 11 of 16 hosts advanced, including 7 of 8 National seeds.  This is a far cry from 2014, which lost most of its national seeds early.  This tournament is setup to be much more “chalk” than in years’ past.
• 5 = number of regionals forced into the “extra” deciding game.  Most of them were good; a couple were laughers.
• 10 of the 16 regionals were extended to Monday games, some thanks to weather, some thanks to the regional getting extended to the “extra” deciding game.
• 11 number one seeds, 1 number two seeds, 3 number three seeds and 1 unlikely number four seed (VCU) advanced to the supers.
• 6 number of #4 seeds who didn’t finish 4th in their regional: lots of overseeded 2/3 seeds ended up going two-and-out.  In fact, three #4 seeds pushed their way to the regional final: VCU (who won), St. Johns and Pepperdine (clearly under-seeded).
• 1 host that went 2-and-out: the clearly undeserving host UC Santa Barbara.  Now, they were the 16 seed, but college pundits howled at their selection as host over a team like College of Charleston.
• 9 = the number of extra inning games, including the epic 20-inning Houston-Rice game and the NC State-TCU winner-take-all extra innings affair.
• 6 of the regionals went pure chalk, a good indication of the job the seeding committee did this year.
• Biggest upsets: Maryland over #1 overall seed UCLA is the clear big-time upset.   Arkansas beating #9 Oklahoma State (who some thought should have been a national seed) probably was the 2nd biggest upset.
• Most surprising regional winner:  VCU, who becomes just the 5th #4 seed to advance out of a regional since the field expanded to 64 in 1999.  But VCU is the most surprising team; the other #4 teams who advanced at least had prospects.
• My Predictions: I was wrong about Illinois and Missouri State but was right about TCU struggling to get by NC State.  I was right in saying the rest of the national seeds should win but wrong on UCLA; nobody saw that coming.  In the 9-16s, I was right about UC Santa Barbara, wrong on Fullerton and right about Dallas Baptist … just wrong on which team was going to win.

Conference Breakdowns of the teams in the Super Regionals:

• 4 ACC teams (out of 7 that made full field).
• 5 SEC teams (out of 7 that made full field).
• 2 Big-10 teams (out of 6 that made the full field).
• 0 Pac-12 teams (out of 5 that made full field).  Per the d1baseball post above, this is the first time since the 64-team expansion that a Pac-12 team failed to make the super-regional field.  In fact, there’s just one team west of Texas in the super-regional (Cal State-Fullerton), who will be a big underdog at Louisville.  For me, this confirms what I’ve often thought; Pac12 baseball tends to get overrated.
• The remaining 5 super-regional teams are from one-bid conferences: TCU, Missouri State, Fullerton, Louisiana-Lafayette and VCU.

Its clearly an ACC/SEC kind of year.

 

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Super Regional Matchups:  The super-regional hosts were announced just after the last regional ended.

• Maryland at UVA (guaranteeing at least one non-top 16 seed makes the CWS this year)
• #2 LSU vs Louisiana-Lafayette
• #3 Louisville vs #14 Cal State-Fullerton
• #4 Florida vs #13 Florida State
• #5 Miami vs VCU
• #6 Illinois vs #11 Vanderbilt
• #7 TCU vs #10 Texas A&M
• #8 Missouri State at Arkansas

Super Regional Thoughts:

What an amazing set of circumstances: our two local teams (UVA and UMD) both fly 3,000 across the country to … setup a repeat of last year’s UVA-held super regional.  Who would have thought.  I’m not quite sure why Arkansas gets to host over national seed Missouri State; that’s got to be a point of contention for that deserving program.  Three great intra-state matchups featuring great teams from Florida, Louisiana and Texas.   The super-regionals could be pretty fun.

Predictions:

UVA gets Kirby back and holds off Maryland.  LSU and Louisville cruise.  Florida outclasses the over-achieving Florida State rival.  Miami pounds the “just happy to be here” VCU team.  Vanderbilt “upsets” by seed Illinois, who can’t handle the talent level Vandy puts out.  Texas A&M beats TCU and Missouri State blasts Arkansas after being insulted by losing hosting rights as a national seed.