Nationals Arm Race

I swear, I wasn't looking for the obvious pun photo of Prince Fielder eating. Photo: The Onion

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know by now that Prince Fielder is looking for a 9 figure contract, that there doesn’t seem to be a lot of suitors for him, and that he keeps being linked to the Washington Nationals, despite sources saying we’re not interested.

So I thought to myself; what *really* is the market for Fielder right now?  Who wants, or more importantly needs, a big-money, big-time hitting, trip-over-his-feet defending at first base Fielder?  Here’s each of the 30 teams organized into categories to help get some clarity:

1. Teams that have long-term, major money commitments to established 1B stars, right now.

These teams are absolutely not in the market for Fielder.   Team and current 1B:

• Boston: Adrian Gonzalez
• Chicago WS: Konerko/Dunn
• Detroit: Miguel Cabrera
• LA Angels: Albert Pujols
• Minnesota: Justin Morneau
• NY Yankees: Mark Teixeira
• Cincinnati: Joey Votto
• Colorado: Todd Helton (not that he’s a major committment, but he did just re-sign thru 2013).
• Miami: Gaby Sanchez (not really a major star, but he was a 2011 all-star and is pre-arbitration)
• Philadelphia: Ryan Howard

You could quibble with the selection of Miami as not being in the market; after all they were throwing money at Pujols and have committed something in the range of $165M in heavily back-loaded contracts already this off-season.  But I havn’t read a single sentence indicating any interest with Fielder.

You could slightly quibble with Colorado, but if so I’ll say that Colorado also falls into one of the “No” categories below.  Read on.

2. Teams that are so bad, right now, that I couldn’t imagine Fielder actually going there

• Baltimore

Baltimore.  That’s it.  Anyone that signs in Baltimore is essentially saying, “I want to play for the worst organization in baseball and guarantee myself 5th place finishes for the entirety of my contract.”  Who would possibly go to play there unless they’re a lower-tier FA who wants to guarantee himself a starting job?  Such a shame; this was the highest payroll team in the game in the mid 90s.  We talk about how Bud Selig needs to take away the Mets … how about forcing Angelos to sell this former jewel franchise to someone who actually wants to see them win?

3. Teams that are aren’t in the market for financial reasons

• LA Dodgers
• NY Mets
• SF Giants
• St. Louis

Obviously the situation with the Dodgers and Mets prevents them from doing such a franchise-altering commitment.  Plus both teams have half-way decent options playing at 1B for them now (James Loney and Ike Davis).   The Giants were at $118M in 2011 and seem tapped out; they have $84M committed prior to their Arb cases, including a potentially record-setting arbitration case with Tim Lincecum.  They’ll easily be above $100M once these cases are said and done.  Lastly St. Louis: if they were willing to pay $25M/year, they would have re-signed Pujols.  So clearly they’ve reached a financial threshold themselves.

I’d also put Colorado in this category; they aren’t exactly a small-market team but they also don’t seem like they’re in the mood to increase payroll $25M/year.

4. Teams that have waved the white flag and are in 100% rebuilding mode

• Oakland
• Houston

Both these teams should be obvious just by their mention.  Oakland is going to try to field a $20M payroll team, and Houston has bottomed out and clearly is starting over.

5. Teams that have big-name prospects currently installed at 1B and who don’t seem like they’re in the market

• Cleveland (Matt LaPorta); also arguably in the “Small Market” category
• Kansas City (Eric Hosmer); also in the “Small Market” category
• Seattle (Justin Smoak); also in the “Teams that are really bad” category
• Atlanta (Freddie Freeman): also in the “Teams that are tapped out financially” category
• San Diego (Yonder Alonso); also in the “Small market” category
• Chicago Cubs (Anthony Rizzo): probably more in the “rebuilding mode” category; Epstein likes Rizzo, just re-acquired him and I’d be shocked if they blocked him by getting Fielder.

Most of these teams could fit into multiple categories.  Lots of rumors out there saying that Seattle is a natural landing spot for Fielder but I don’t see it: Smoak is the reason Seattle agreed to trade Cliff Lee, and you don’t just give up on guys like that.  Meanwhile Seattle is now miles behind their divisional rivals and may not compete for a decade.  Why would Fielder go there?

Meanwhile, the Cubs seem like an interesting case.  NL team, NL central team, storied name.  But they didn’t hire Theo Epstein to just make the leap; their ownership clearly realized that their franchise was on the downside both at the MLB level and in the farm system.  Bad contracts, bad clubhouse.  They’re rebuilding for a renewed run in a few year’s time.

6. Small Market teams that certainly don’t seem to be in the market for a $25M/year player

• Tampa Bay
• Arizona
• Milwaukee (else he’d be looking at re-signing there)
• Pittsburgh

All these teams seem to be pretty self-explanatory.  Maybe Arizona gets into the market, but they’ve gone to great pains to lose payroll, paring it down to just $56M last year while somehow winning the division.  Their highest paid player in 2011 was just $5.8M.  A $25M/year guy doesn’t fit with their team.

So, after all that, Here’s the teams Left: This is the actual Market for Fielder, right now.  Teams listed with their current starting 1B

• Texas: Mitch Moreland
• Toronto: Adam Lind
• Washington: Adam LaRoche

And here’s arguments for and against each team:

• Pro Texas: they are getting a massive amount of money influx in.  They may or may not win the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, meaning they may or may not have an “extra” $120M or so sitting around in a couple weeks.  Moreland isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire and wouldn’t be an impediment.
• Con Texas: They don’t NEED more offense; they’ve bashed their way to two consecutive AL pennants by having an offense ranked in the top 3 in pretty much every category.  They had a guy who hit 29 homers batting 7th for them in the off-season (Nelson Cruz).

• Pro Toronto: they have payroll room.  They can let Fielder DH some of the time.  They have a good young pitching staff they can build on.  Lind hit 26 homers but isn’t blocking them from acquiring someone better.  They do need to improve their offense and he’d fit naturally behind Jose Bautista, giving him even better pitches to turn on.
• Con Toronto: they’re the 4th best team in the AL East and havn’t made the playoffs since the Wild Card era.  What makes you think they’re going to catch the 3 teams above them, no matter how much they spend?  This has to come into Fielder’s thought process, doesn’t it?  They also don’t have the pitching right now to really compete in the AL East, having traded away their main studs for prospects in recent years.

• Pro Washington: This team needs offense; we’ve declined in runs scored 3 years running.  Plain and simple.
• Con Washington: he can’t DH.  We’d be lighting the $8M we owe to LaRoche on fire.  He doesn’t fit Rizzo’s pro-defense concept of finding players.  He may expose a payroll ceiling that the team hasn’t broached before, resulting in the team possibly losing franchise players in the future because “we can’t afford them.”

In the end though, if Texas signs Darvish I’d think they’d be out of the running.  And Toronto hasn’t really shown an inclination to spend Fielder kinds of money, and seem more in a rebuilding phase than a “go for it now” phase.

Which means the Fielder market may be …. just Washington.

What do you think?  Are there any teams besides Texas, Toronto and the Nats that are *really* in the conversation?  Or is Boras negotiating against himself right now?

Photo by Doug Benc/Getty Images North America

As posted by other bloggers today, October 28th 2010, (especially in this post here on the Nationals Enquirer which rather eloquently titles their posting with the obvious consequence of Dunn’s Elias rating), the Nats dodged a huge bullet and will be fully compensated if Adam Dunn decides to leave via free agency (that is well, unless they do the unthinkable and fail to offer him Arbitration).  The official Elias Rankings came out and previous estimates on Dunn were slightly low (resulting in panicked posts by yours truly and others about his being a type B free agent and thus making our entire mis-handling of the contract extension even more egregiously bad).

Now, based on the rules of compensation (as explained in the Kilgore’s Nats Journal blog posting today), the first 18 picks of the 2011 draft are protected (usually first 15 but there’s a few compensation picks in there from failed draft picks in 2010).  So, IF Dunn is leaving (and the prevaling opinion seems to lean that way despite all realistic arguments against it…), what the Nats now root for is a team in the “bottom” half of the first round to be the signing team.  If this happens, we’ll get their 1st rounder AND a supplemental pick.  Otherwise we’re looking at the supplemental pick plus the signing team’s 2nd rounder.  That’s not nearly as nice of a haul frankly.

The first round draft order for 2011 goes like this, thanks to mlbtraderumors.com

Here’s the thing though; if Dunn is going to leave, then he needs to go to a team that:

a) Needs a first baseman and

b) Is REALISTICALLY in the market for Free Agents in general, and

c) Makes more sense for him to leave the Nationals for.  As in, why would he go from one last place team to another, unless the Nats insultingly refuse to offer him anything more than a 2yr deal.

Here’s a quick rundown on NL teams and their 1st basemen situation.  We focus first on the NL because of Dunn’s repeated statements that he’s not interested in becoming a full time DH.

• Nym: Ike Davis: an up and coming prospect, had a nice 2010.
• Phi: Ryan Howard: long term contract, anchor of the franchise.
• Fla: Gaby Sanchez: could be upgraded but it doesn’t matter, they’re not FA buyers.  Never are.
• Atl: Derrick Lee, who is a FA.  Troy Glaus also a FA but was awful this year. Could be a buyer, looking for a slugger to help them make the leap from WC to divisional champ.  Or they could depend on up and coming prospect Freddie Freeman.  Not listed as players in any of the early Free Agency predictions though.

• Stl: Albert Pujols; franchise player, obviously.
• Mil: Prince Fielder.  Milwaukee’s franchise player until his eventual trade/FA saga next season.
• Cin: Joey Votto; MVP candidate and not yet even to arbitration.  Best bargain in baseball right now.
• Chi: it was Derrick Lee til they traded him to Atlanta.  Possible FA buyers.  See below.
• Hou: it was Lance Berkman til they traded him.  But are they FA buyers?  I don’t think so.
• Pit: Garrett Jones: doesn’t matter, they’re not FA buyers; they’re the reason baseball has revenue sharing.

• Lad: James Loney: cost contained and home grown.  plus no FA $$ spent until ownership divorce settled.  Some reports seen saying they’ll trade Loney and go after Dunn, but sounds doubtful.
• Sdp: Adrian Gonzalez; San Diego’s marquee player.
• Sfg: Aubrey Huff: a FA and SF desperately needs hitters.  BUT Huff may have earned an extension based on his post season exploits both at bat and in the field where he’s a plus defender.  And the Giants (by virtue of a number of awful contracts) are payroll bound for the next few years.  Not major shoppers.
• Col: Todd Helton; signed through 2011, which will be the last of his 9 year contract.  His production is declining but they’ll want to stay flexible enough to go after the bumper 2011 1st basemen FA crop of Fielder, Gonzalez, and Pujols.  Won’t go after Dunn but will seek a 1-year FA.
• Ari: Adam LaRoche, who is a FA, but Arizona’s new GM values defense and doesn’t like Dunn.  Plus, they do have a decent 1B prospect in Brandon Allen.  Not buyers.

So, if he goes anywhere in the NL I think it could be either Atlanta, Chicago or (maybe) San Francisco.  Chicago already has some serious payroll issues and an underperforming team but has a ton of cash.  SF may not have the payroll flexibility to buy Dunn despite really needing him.  Atlanta only has $60M committed next year and has a bunch of arbitration cases … but they’ve spent over $100m on payroll as recently as 2 years ago and may expand it out again.

Adding in AL teams, looking at 1B solutions (I can’t see him signing up for a team that will ONLY DH him, so we have to look at teams where he splits time between 1B and DH).

• Bos: Kevin Youklis/Victor Martinez; but have a serious need for a DH if they don’t resign David Ortiz.  Interesting off season for Boston.  If they cut loose the legendary Ortiz, I can see them letting Beltre go, putting Youklis at 3rd, and then going after Dunn and selling him on splitting time between 1st and DHing when Victor Martinez needs a blow.  That’s an awful lot of “ifs” to work out though.  Update: The RedSox exercised the 2011 option on Ortiz, presumably removing them from the equation.
• Nyy: Mark Teixeira.  Plus, don’t the 2011 yankees have like 8 guys who might need to DH periodically?  My favorite subplot of the next few years is how the Yankees handle their aging core of players.  Jeter, A-Rod, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte and Rivera are all on the wrong side of 34, all make a ton of money and all need a position to play.  Where exactly does Jeter go when he cannot play SS anymore?
• Tam: Carlos Pena, a FA who will be allowed to walk.  However, Tampa won’t buy Dunn b/c they’re in massive payroll reduction mode.  I’m sure they’ve got some uber hitting prospect who will contribute an OPS+ of 140 next year.  They do have their 2010 minor league player of the year Dan Johnson, who hit THIRTY homers in AAA in just 98 games but he hasn’t exactly torn it up in his MLB experiences.
• Tor: Lyle Overbay, a FA who is 34.  Can’t see Toronto buying an aging FA w/ new GM in town who is focused on building the team the right way.
• Bal: Ty Wiggington: another aging mediocre FA.  Dunn would be *perfect* in Baltimore and at Camden, but are Orioles buyers?

• Det: Miguel Cabrera; locked in and coming off a great year.  However, they have nearly $60M coming off the books and may be looking for someone to bash and protect Cabrera.  Would mean that Dunn becomes a full time DH.
• Cws: Paul Konerko, a FA coming off a career year.  But, the consensus seems to be that the CWS won’t pursue Konerko (he’s 34 and clearly should start declining).  A dark horse candidate for Dunn.
• Min: Justin Morneau; franchise player, long term contract.
• Kc: Billy Butler; player of the future.
• Cle: Matt LaPorta, the future of this team right now and bounty from the CC Sabathia trade.

• Laa: Kendrys Morales; a key hitter whose injury helped derail their 2010 season.
• Oak: Daric Barton: up and coming hitter, only 24 but they’d never buy Dunn unless it was to flip him later.
• Sea: Russell Branyon/Casey Kotchman but they have Justin Smoak coming up (bounty for Cliff Lee).
• Tex: Had a rotating door post Smoak trade between castoff Cantu and rookie Chris Davis, but their 2009 minor league player of the year Mitch Moreland seems to have taken hold of the position.  9 homers in 47 games down the stretch plus he has come up huge in the post season.  Not buyers.  No wonder they were OK with letting Smoak go.

There’s many more AL options.  In various scenarios he could make sense for 5 or 6 AL teams.  At least Chicago, Baltimore, Boston, or Toronto.  Tampa if they weren’t going cheap.

My personal odds/guesses in order on where Dunn may go:

1. Chicago Cubs: makes the most sense and are already politicking for him.  However, rumors on the street at the start of free agency seem to indicate that the Cubs are standing pat.  They have new ownership in 2010 and a bunch of bad contracts.  After such an awful season how can the owners be compelled to throw good money after bad?
2. Chicago White Sox: instead of the North Side, he moves to the south side.  Some of the Foxsports.com team belives he’s heading here.  The White Sox won 88 games last year and may be looking to upgrade (and get younger) from Konerko.  Yes its AL, but he’d clearly be the first baseman.
3. Re-signs w/ the Nats; less likely since Rizzo can’t see the forest (40 home runs) for the trees (Dunn’s defensive liabilities).  And, he has to be insulted by the hemming and hawing that went on all season (not to mention the constant trade rumors, which clearly irritated him as the summer progressed).  There has been a 3-year deal on the table since at least August but Dunn has resisted.

Lesser possibilities but which could arise.

4. Atlanta: if the braves don’t trust prospect Freeman, they make perfect sense and Dunn would be walking into a playoff team ready to take the next step.
5. Houston; a return home  … but I don’t think they’re really shopping.
6. Detroit: A couple of Fox sportswriters seem to think he’s heading to Detroit.  If he does, its clearly a signal of defeat on his part because he’d immediately be a full time DH.
7. New York Yankees.  The Yankees do have a slight need for a DH, but it would take convincing Dunn to completely give up playing in the field as the Yankees are already stacked with future DHs.
8. Baltimore; Dunn may reach 700 career homers if playing in Camden Yards for the next 5 years with its short porch.  But, as mentioned before, if he decides to leave Washington (an up and coming franchise that could actually contend by the time his contract ends), why would he go to a place like Baltimore?  Baltimore is the 5th best team in a division that shows no signs of ever having an off year.  In fact, why would ANY marquee free agent ever go to Baltimore?
9. Oakland: listed by Ben Reiter as a dark horse for Dunn’s services.  Don’t see it.

Now, IF Dunn is absolutely leaving … who are the teams we’d be “rooting” to sign him?  Boston is best, but Atlanta or SF would be great too.  If he goes to these locations we’d own a mid-20s first rounder plus a supplemental.  If he goes to Chicago or Houston, we’re looking at a supplemental and an early 2nd rounder (or worse if these teams decide to sign TWO type-A free agents and the other is higher ranked than Dunn.  Under this scenario we’d get a supp-1st and the signing team’s 2nd rounder.  Not good).

So, the entire principle behind NOT signing Adam Dunn during the summer was the 2 draft picks we would acquire (the signing team’s 1st pick and a supplimental) after he declines our arbitration offer.

Check out this link at mlbtraderumors.com.  If this site is correct, and the analysis is accurate, then Dunn has fallen just below the threshold and is now a Type B Free Agent.

From a Nats standpoint, this is an unmitigated Disaster.  Now not only is there more incentive for other teams to sign him,there’s even LESS incentive for him to take a deal from us.  And, we’ll get merely a supplimental 1st pick.

Unless the entire 2010 season was just a charade and we plan on signing him anyway.  Per Boswell there’s a 3-year deal on the table now.  But if you’re Dunn, you HAVE  to see what is out there right now, right?

Assuming that he does not consider AL teams, as he has stated he wants to continue to play the field, here’s a quick rundown on NL teams and their 1st basemen situation:

NY: Ike Davis; up and coming prospect
PHI: Ryan Howard: long term contract
Fla: Gaby Sanchez (doesn’t matter, they’re not FA buyers)
Atl: Derrick Lee, who is a FA.  Troy Glaus also a FA but was awful this year. Could be a buyer.

Stl: Pujols
mil: Prince Fielder
Cincy: Joey Votto
Chi; it was Derrick Lee til they traded him.  Possible FA buyers.
Hou; it was Lance Berkman til they traded him.  But are they FA buyers?  I don’t think so.
Pitt: Garrett Jones (doesn’t matter, they’re not FA buyers)

LA: James Loney: cost contained and home grown.  plus no FA $$ spent until ownership divorce settled.
SD: Adrian Gonzalez
SF; Aubrey Huff: a FA and SF desperately needs hitters.
Col: Todd Helton; not the greatest hitter anymore but signed through 2013.
Ariz: Adam LaRoche who is a FA but I sense Ariz is rebuilding and not FA buyers

So, if he goes anywhere I think it could be either Atlanta, Chicago or San Francisco.  Chicago already has some serious payroll issues and an underperforming team.  SF may not have the payroll flexibility to buy Dunn despite really needing him.  Atlanta only has $60M committed next year and has a bunch of arbitration cases … but they’ve spent over $100m on payroll as recently as 2 years ago and may expand it out again.

Adding in AL teams, looking at 1B solutions (I can’t see him signing up for a team that will ONLY DH him, so we have to look at teams where he splits time between 1B and DH).

Bos: Youklis/Victor Martinez
NYY: Teixeira
Tampa: Carlos Pena, a FA who will be allowed to walk.  However, Tampa won’t buy Dunn
Tor: Lyle Overbay, a FA who is 34.  Can’t see Toronto buying an aging FA w/ new GM in town.
Balt: Ty Wiggington: another aging mediocre FA.  But are Orioles buyers?

Det: Cabrera
CWS: Paul Konerko, a FA coming off a fantastic season; i see him resigning here.
Minn: Justin Morneau
KC: Billy Butler
Cle: Matt LaPorta, the future of this team right now and bounty from the CC Sabathia trade.

LAA: Kendrys Morales;
Oak; Daric Barton: up and coming hitter, only 24.
Sea: Russell Branyon/Casey Kotchman but they have Justin Smoak coming up (bounty for Cliff Lee).
Texas: Jorge Cantu/Chris Davis; rotating door post Smoak trade, but Mitch Moreland is prospect of the future.

So, from what I can tell there’s only really 4 AL teams that even have FA spots at 1B.  Chicago (resigning Konerko), Tampa (not FA players), Toronto (are they FA buyers?) and Baltimore (why would Dunn go to a WORSE team than Washington?)

I still see him focusing on the NL.  Based on this … Dunn seems like he may have options in the NL, which means our chances of having him accept a 3 year deal with us less likely.  Not good news for us in 2011.

Bowden picked Detwiler with the 6th overall pick in the 2007 draft.

Here’s a short list of 1st round players drafted after Detwiler that we didn’t pick in order to pick him out of a noname division III college:

– Matt LaPorta
– Madison Bumgarner
– Rick Porcello
aaaaaand.
– Jason Heywood

(I realize this is grossly unfair, that all these guys were high school long shots and that Porcello was asking for upper 1st round money and fell because of it.  But still).