{"id":10239,"date":"2015-02-03T15:56:02","date_gmt":"2015-02-03T20:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10239"},"modified":"2015-02-04T08:33:53","modified_gmt":"2015-02-04T13:33:53","slug":"ladsons-inbox-2215","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10239","title":{"rendered":"Ladson’s inbox 2\/2\/15"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Scherzer<\/a>

Scherzer is on everyone’s mind. Photo via Scherzer’s twitter account.<\/p><\/div>\n

Love it; another inbox to analyze<\/a>.\u00a0 In the wake of the Scherzer<\/strong> signing, lets see what kind of questions MLB.com beat reporter Bill Ladson<\/strong> fielded this week.<\/p>\n

As always, I answer as I write before reading Ladson’s answer, and edit questions for clarity as needed.<\/p>\n

Q: How much better will the Nationals be now that right-hander Max Scherzer<\/a> is on the roster?<\/b><\/p>\n

A: Well, if you play the “WAR analysis” game, then Max Scherzer<\/strong> replaces Tanner Roark<\/strong> in the rotation for 2015.\u00a0\u00a0 Scherzer posted a bWAR of 5.5<\/a> in 2014 while Roark posted a bWAR of 4.8<\/a>.\u00a0 So on the face of it, assuming that both players provide identical value in 2015 as they did in 2014, perhaps Scherzer won’t immediately impact the team.\u00a0 This is the essence of those immediate-post signing blogs and columns that questioned why the Nats needed to make this acquisition.<\/p>\n

However.\u00a0 I offer some counters.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Roark immediately becomes your spot-starter to cover for injury.\u00a0 Lets say that Gio Gonzalez<\/strong> (bWAR in 2014 of just 2.1<\/a>) gets hurt and Roark covers for him; well that’s nearly a 3-WAR improvement.\u00a0 Certainly Roark is going to be better than whatever AAA cover we could promote to provide injury relief.\u00a0 The Nats only gave 12<\/del> 13 starts to non-core rotation guys in 2014 but more than twice that number in 2013; the odds are that an injury is going to hit the rotation at some point.<\/li>\n
  2. Scherzer will be better in 2015 than he was in 2014.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 He moves to the NL, gets to face pitchers instead of DHs, faces generally weaker lineups, plays in a weaker division and pitches in more parks that are pitcher friendly.\u00a0 You can make the argument that his K\/9 is going to increase significantly (if he faces the pitcher 60-70 times in a season, he likely strikes them out at least half of that), and his ERA likely falls at least a half a point.\u00a0 That will boost his WAR for 2015.<\/li>\n
  3. Scherzer going twice in a seven game playoff series is going to be better than having any one else getting that second start.\u00a0 In fact, a 1-2-3 punch of Strasburg, Zimmermann and Scherzer is one heck of a daunting task for any opponent.<\/li>\n
  4. And there’s this: not to completely re-hash my post on the Scherzer signing<\/a>, but i’ll note that this signing (to me) seems like a way to bridge the gap and guarantee an “Ace” in the rotation through the next two off-seasons of rotation transition (where the team likely loses Zimmermann<\/strong>, Fister<\/strong> and Strasburg<\/strong>).\u00a0 The Nats rotation looks an awful lot better after these three guys are gone if Scherzer is leading the line.\u00a0 So to me this isn’t a move about 2015 as much as it is about getting this team to 2017 and maintaining competitiveness.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Ladson said very little about answer the question, using his answer to immediately talk about the offense and the bench.\u00a0 Yeah we know there’s issues there.\u00a0 And we all remember how the middle of the order went like 1-for-the NLDS.\u00a0 Wasn’t the question.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Q: Why didn’t Espinosa work on hitting right-handed exclusively after the season ended? If Espinosa made that transition successfully, he would be the answer at second base.<\/b><\/p>\n

    A: A good question.\u00a0 Not the first time this topic has come up.\u00a0 We’ve discussed it to death here but the reasons seem to fall along the following:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Espinosa<\/strong> may be getting “advice” from his agent (Scott Boras<\/strong>) to put his own interests first.<\/li>\n
    2. Espinosa may be “stubborn” about maintaining his switch hitting, given that it is a differentiator in the marketplace for him.<\/li>\n
    3. Espinsoa may just be uneasy about suddenly facing right-handed curve balls from the right-hand side, probably having not faced such a situation in more than a decade (a fair point).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      We all know about his splits lefty versus righty.\u00a0 We all know he has not chosen to try RH-only.\u00a0 I think its also safe to say that the organization has gone out of its way (Asdrubal Cabrera<\/strong> last season and now Yunel Escobar<\/strong>) to replace him in the starting lineup despite his defensive skills.\u00a0 It is what it is; we now have a backup infielder on the roster to cover both 2B and SS and who has some pop from the plate in a backup capacity (and the associated K-rate of course).\u00a0 Not the worst thing in the world to have.\u00a0 Ladson says … well he stated the obvious (Escobar is the starter) and then says that the “Nats hope Espinosa cuts down on his strike-outs.”\u00a0 Non-answer.<\/em><\/p>\n

      Q: How come Jeff Kobernus<\/a> is not being considered for the starting second-base job? Why not have a young, cost-controlled guy play every day?<\/b><\/p>\n

      A: Because Kobernus<\/strong> hasn’t played 2B basically since college<\/del> full-time since a half-season stint in Harrisburg in 2012.\u00a0 The team moved him to the OF and he’s mostly stayed there.\u00a0 Even if you thought he could play second effectively, he’s got a career minor league slash line<\/a> of .285\/.331\/.363.\u00a0\u00a0 He is what he is: a utility guy who can cover in case of a slew of injuries and makes for a good 9\/1 pinch running\/6th outfielder call-up, but that’s about it.\u00a0 I don’t think you can count on him to produce at the major league level day-in and day-out.\u00a0 Ladson says Kobernus has a chance of making the bench out of spring training this year, which I disagree with.<\/em><\/p>\n

      Q: Asdrubal Cabrera<\/a> signed with the Rays for one-year, $7.5 million. Why couldn’t the Nats make that deal? Or something close to it?<\/b><\/p>\n

      A: Probably because Cabrera wanted to play short-stop, and the Nats have a short-stop.\u00a0 Besides, Escobar at $5M is a good deal.\u00a0 I mentioned at some point in the off-season that Cabrera’s offensive output with Washington wasn’t too much better than Espinosa’s frankly (Cabrera’s split line with Washington in 2014 was .229\/.312\/.389<\/a>; Escobar brings more to the table.\u00a0 Ladson agrees, and says that the Nats weren’t willing to bring Cabrera back at his asking price based on what he showed last year.<\/em><\/p>\n

      Q: Why didn’t the Nats consider Tyler Clippard<\/a> as their closer?<\/b><\/p>\n

      A: Hmm.\u00a0 Good question.\u00a0 Perhaps because when Clippard<\/strong> was given the closer job in 2012, he really struggled with it as compared to his typical 8th inning performance.\u00a0\u00a0 ERA in 2012 as closer: 3.72.\u00a0 Career ERA: 2.88<\/a>.\u00a0 Besides, there was more in play for Clippard’s trade than just who was going to be the 2015 closer.\u00a0 Clippard’s got a ton of miles on his arm, Clippard was set to make nearly 8 figures as a reliever, and the Nats felt like they could afford to part ways with him to acquire a player who filled a need.\u00a0 Ladson notes what I noted, and said that Clippard’s pending free agency played into the decision.\u00a0 That’s a great point that I didn’t mention; Clippard wasn’t going to be offered a qualifying offer (likely worth $16M next off-season), so he’d depart to no compensation.\u00a0 With this trade, the Nats got some compensation for him.<\/em><\/p>\n

      Q: I know he’s had plenty of success as a general manager, but I’m surprised Mike Rizzo doesn’t feel any sense of urgency to try to sign Desmond or Jordan Zimmermann<\/a> to an extension. What are your thoughts on this?<\/b><\/p>\n

      A: I think Mike Rizzo<\/strong> has been trying to extend these guys for more than two years.\u00a0 “Sense of urgency?”\u00a0 What else do you want to ask of the guy?\u00a0 He by all accounts has offered both guys 9-figure deals, and has been rebuffed.\u00a0 Do you think Ian Desmond<\/strong> is worth a 7yr\/$100M deal?\u00a0 Do you think Zimmermann<\/strong> is worth a 6yr\/$150M deal?\u00a0 Clearly to me the two players are valuing themselves higher than what the GM is valuing them, the GM has made what he thinks to be fair market value deals, and both guys have opted to test the market.\u00a0 Baseball is a business, both on the player side and the team side.\u00a0 Ladson thinks Rizzo will step up discussions once spring training happens.\u00a0 I don’t; I think that the ship has more or less sailed on extending these guys at this point.\u00a0 Now, will the team move Zimmermann?\u00a0 I think we may see offers once James Shields<\/strong> signs…. if there’s teams out there that want to improve but miss out on Shields, they may come calling to the Nats with deals we cannot turn down.\u00a0 We’ll see.\u00a0 Overall thougth I’m doubtful any trades occur at this point.\u00a0 My prediction: the juggernaut rotation goes into 2015 in-tact.<\/em><\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Love it; another inbox to analyze.\u00a0 In the wake of the Scherzer signing, lets see what kind of questions MLB.com beat reporter Bill Ladson fielded this week. As always, I answer as I write before reading Ladson’s answer, and edit questions for clarity as needed. Q: How much better will the Nationals be now that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,3,5],"tags":[2370,182,135,241,385,114,49,392,43,1037,129,180,38,77,128,1569],"class_list":["post-10239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chatmailbag-responses","category-mlbpitching","category-natsgeneral","tag-asdrubal-cabrera","tag-bill-ladson","tag-danny-espinosa","tag-doug-fister","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-ian-desmond","tag-james-shields","tag-jeff-kobernus","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-max-scherzer","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-scott-boras","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-tanner-roark","tag-tyler-clippard","tag-yunel-escobar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10239"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10239\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10247,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10239\/revisions\/10247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}