{"id":11661,"date":"2015-11-30T10:45:37","date_gmt":"2015-11-30T15:45:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11661"},"modified":"2022-11-17T09:58:30","modified_gmt":"2022-11-17T14:58:30","slug":"non-tender-deadline-2015-do-we-have-any-candidates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11661","title":{"rendered":"Non-Tender deadline 2015: do we have any candidates?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_3103\" style=\"width: 304px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/MooreTyler_pnats_insidenova.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3103\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3103\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/MooreTyler_pnats_insidenova.com_.jpg\" alt=\"Might be the end of the road for Moore. Photo unknown via insidenova.com\" width=\"294\" height=\"210\"><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-3103\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Might be the end of the road for Moore. Photo unknown via insidenova.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The next big day on the <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1rE05kljgY8i_IePey_KEDqS_Y8PNRqXQ4qEhqLO_NKI\/edit?usp=sharing\">2015-16 Baseball off-season calendar<\/a> is the &#8220;Non-Tender deadline.&#8221;&nbsp; Midnight on 12\/2\/15 is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players and\/or unsigned players.&nbsp; If not tendered, those players immediately become free agents.&nbsp; (<strong>Craig Calcaterra<\/strong> has a <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.nbcsports.com\/2015\/12\/01\/wait-what-is-the-non-tender-deadline-again\/\">funny little intro post<\/a> on the same).<\/p>\n<p>The team has a whole slew of &#8220;unsigned players&#8221; but we&#8217;ll leave them out of this discussion for the time being, since the non-tender deadline is mostly about discussing what arbitration-eligible players will either guarantee themselves a contract for 2016 or be cut loose.<\/p>\n<p>(this is the 4th year running we&#8217;ve done this post: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10071\">2014 version<\/a> (no real non-tender candidates and none non-tendered), <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7994\">2013 version<\/a> (Detwiler, Ohlendorf in play), <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5036\">2012 version<\/a> (Lannan, Gorzelanny, Flores in play), <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3346\">2011 version<\/a> (Slaten and Gorzelanny in play).<\/p>\n<p>The below table lists our 8 arbitration-eligible players for 2016, their current contract, what they got paid in 2015 and then two projections (mine and mlbtraderumors.com) for their 2016 salary.<\/p>\n<table style=\"height: 212px;\" width=\"775\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"140\">Player<\/td>\n<td width=\"171\">Current or 2015 Contract<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">2014<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">2015<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">My 2016 Guess<\/td>\n<td width=\"113\">MLBtraderumors 2016 guess<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"140\">Strasburg, Stephen<\/td>\n<td width=\"171\">1yr\/7.4M (15) (arb3)<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$3,975,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">$7,400,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$12,000,000<\/td>\n<td>$10,500,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"140\">Storen, Drew<\/td>\n<td>1yr\/$5.7M (15) (arb4)<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$3,450,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">$5,700,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$7,600,000<\/td>\n<td>$8,800,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"140\">Ramos, Wilson<\/td>\n<td>1yr\/$3.55M (15) (arb3)<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$2,095,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">$3,550,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$4,700,000<\/td>\n<td>$5,300,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"140\">Rendon, Anthony<\/td>\n<td width=\"171\">1yr\/$1.8M opt (15) (arb1)<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$1,800,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">$1,800,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$4,000,000<\/td>\n<td>$2,500,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"140\">Stammen, Craig<\/td>\n<td>1yr\/$2.25M (15) (arb4)<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$1,375,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">$2,250,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$2,400,000<\/td>\n<td>$2,400,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"140\">Espinosa, Danny<\/td>\n<td>1yr\/$1.8M (15) (arb2)<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$540,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">$1,800,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$3,200,000<\/td>\n<td>$2,700,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"140\">Lobaton, Jose<\/td>\n<td>1yr\/$1.2M (15) (arb3)<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$950,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">$1,200,000<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$1,500,000<\/td>\n<td>$1,500,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"140\">Moore, Tyler<\/td>\n<td>1 yr\/$0.5182M (15) (arb1)<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$507,900<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">$518,200<\/td>\n<td width=\"81\">$1,200,000<\/td>\n<td>$1,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Lets go one-by-one, giving scant analysis to the more obvious tender candidates.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Strasburg, Stephen<\/strong>: obviously he gets tendered; bigger question is what his 2016 salary ends up being.&nbsp; My guess is a bit higher than mlbtraderumors because i&#8217;m going more off of his presumed FA value versus a projection of his 2015 pay vs performance.&nbsp; Might be an ugly arbitration battle if the two sides come in very far apart.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Storen, Drew<\/strong>: obvious tender since he&#8217;s getting shopped heavily.&nbsp; Here mlbtraderumors thinks he&#8217;s worth quite a bit more than I projected.&nbsp; Maybe i&#8217;m undervaluing saves.&nbsp; But the Nats would certainly like to rid themselves of this arbitration case headache.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rendon, Anthony<\/strong>: obvious tender and hoping for a return to 2014 levels.&nbsp; What do you pay him?&nbsp; I said $4M &#8230; and that might be pretty high considering his 2015 performance.&nbsp; Could also be an ugly fight in the arbitration hearing.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Espinosa, Danny<\/strong>: made himself a bit of money in 2015 by improving his average a bit; still has L\/R split issues but he will continue to have a job as a utility infielder for years to come thanks to his plus-plus defense.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Stammen, Craig<\/strong>: unless his recovery has been fouled up, he&#8217;s a tender candidate and frankly should probably look to sign another cost-controlled 2-year deal with the team instead of fighting it out in a hearing.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ramos, Wilson<\/strong>: may have struggled at the plate but he&#8217;s the only starting catcher we have.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Now for the real Non-tender candidates.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Lobaton, Jose<\/strong>: Is Lobaton worth $1.5M (both my estimate and mlbtraderumors) given how poorly he hit in 2015?&nbsp; Yes he is; unless you can tell me that either <strong>Pedro Severino<\/strong> or <strong>Spencer Kieboom<\/strong> is ready to be an every 5 days MLB catcher (or potentially more given how historically brittle Ramos has been) then Lobaton has to be tendered.&nbsp; If the team signs a catcher in the next two days, maybe you can cut him loose.&nbsp; But you generally keep ahold of MLB-competent (if not quality) catchers, not get rid of them.&nbsp; So I&#8217;ll guess we tender him.&nbsp; No options available, so he&#8217;s either all-or-nothing on the MLB roster for 2016.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Moore, Tyler<\/strong>: to me the only real non-tender candidate we have.&nbsp; No options available, had his worst season yet at the plate (.200\/.250\/.364) and is positionally limited to 1B and LF (two slots filled by guys on $100M contracts).&nbsp; He posted a -1.5 bWAR in 2015 and now has a -2.1 bWAR for his career.&nbsp; I just don&#8217;t see how he&#8217;s tendered a contract frankly; wouldn&#8217;t the team do better to have a cattle-call of MLFA NRIs next spring to find a more useful RH-off-the-bench bat, which is essentially what Moore has become?&nbsp; I think so; in fact some of the recent signing activity (<strong>Reed Johnson, Scott Sizemore, Chris Heisey<\/strong>) seems to indicate exactly this; the team thinks it can find a player who has a better MLB track record and who is more positionally flexible than Moore.&nbsp; My prediction: non-tender.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Thoughts?&nbsp; Would you do something different?<\/p>\n<p>PS: after publishing, mlbtraderumors.com published their <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2015\/11\/non-tender-candidates-7.html\">comprehensive list of non-tender candidates<\/a> for the year.&nbsp; They list Lobaton, Moore and Stammen as their non-tender candidates.&nbsp; I think non-tendering Stammen would be pretty heartless, but that&#8217;s the business.<\/p>\n<p>12\/2\/15 results: the team pre-negotiated two deals with Lobaton and Moore, but ended up <a href=\"http:\/\/m.nationals.mlb.com\/news\/article\/158640412\">non-tendering Stammen<\/a>.&nbsp; Lets hope they can find a way to bring him back.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The next big day on the 2015-16 Baseball off-season calendar is the &#8220;Non-Tender deadline.&#8221;&nbsp; Midnight on 12\/2\/15 is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players and\/or unsigned players.&nbsp; If not tendered, those players immediately become free agents.&nbsp; (Craig Calcaterra has a funny little intro post on the same). The team has [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,4559],"tags":[185,2095,98,135,80,52,112,39,2239,2000,841,51,1554,2505,2759,38,176,235,147],"class_list":["post-11661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","category-non-tender","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-chris-heisey","tag-craig-stammen","tag-danny-espinosa","tag-doug-slaten","tag-drew-storen","tag-jesus-flores","tag-john-lannan","tag-jose-lobaton","tag-pedro-severino","tag-reed-johnson","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-ross-ohlendorf","tag-scott-sizemore","tag-spencer-kieboom","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-tom-gorzelanny","tag-tyler-moore","tag-wilson-ramos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11661"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11661\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17893,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11661\/revisions\/17893"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}