{"id":15515,"date":"2018-11-27T14:16:05","date_gmt":"2018-11-27T19:16:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15515"},"modified":"2022-11-17T09:46:12","modified_gmt":"2022-11-17T14:46:12","slug":"2018-non-tender-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15515","title":{"rendered":"2018 Non-Tender Decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Roark<\/a>

Roark is the big decision the team faces. Photo Alex Brandon\/AP via wp.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Its that time of the year as noted.  Lets get right to it.<\/p>\n

Nats have 7 arbitration-eligible players.   Four of them are no-brainers to tender and negotiate with in Arbitration.  2019 salary guesses are MLBtraderumor estimates that are now pretty well accepted as the best analysis estimates out there.  I feel like the Nats are a bit generous and usually end up paying slightly more than their estimates, but these will work for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Arbitration Eligible Player<\/th>2018 salary\/contract<\/th>2019 estimate<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Rendon, Anthony<\/td>1 yr\/$12.3M (18)<\/td>$17.6M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Turner, Trea<\/td>1 yr\/$0.5772M (18)<\/td>$5.3M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ross, Joe<\/td>1 yr\/$0.5679M (18)<\/td>1.5M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Barraclough, Kyle<\/td>1yr\/$1.9M (18)<\/td>$1.9M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

Joe Ross<\/strong> at $1.5M could be an absolute steal and could be a factor in consideration for Tanner Roark<\/strong>‘s decision later on.  If Ross returns to his 2016 form for this salary we’ll be in great shape for next year’s playoff race.  Rendon <\/strong>and Turner<\/strong> are obvious players to continue with, and\/or to consider some longer term contract negotiations with.  Lastly, the team just traded for Barraclough<\/strong>, he’s relatively affordable, and will be a key arm in the 2019 bullpen, so he’s not going anywhere.<\/p>\n

Lets talk about the more iffy candidates:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t
Arbitration Eligible Player<\/th>2018 salary\/contract<\/th>2019 estimate<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Roark, Tanner<\/td>1 yr\/$6.475M (18)<\/td>$9.8M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Taylor, Michael<\/td>1 yr\/$2.525M (18)<\/td>$3.2M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Solis, Sammy<\/td>1 yr\/$0.5603M (18)<\/td>$900k<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

First, i’ll just say this: I feel like the team is going to tender Michael A Taylor<\/strong>  He’s got too much value  as a defender, his projected salary in the $3.2M range is going to be better than projections for similar outfielders on the market … but he’s 27 not 33, plays Gold Glove-calibre defense and has shown some flashes of capability at the plate.  I think he makes perfect sense as a 4th outfielder.<\/p>\n

I also don’t think i’m going out on a limb saying that its likey that Sammy Solis<\/strong> has thrown his last pitch for the team.  He was patently awful in 2018, couldn’t get lefties out at all, and even though his projected salary is a pittance ($900k), his big limiting factor is his lack of options.  He burned his last minor league option in 2018, so if he can’t make the team he’s gonna get DFA’d anyway.  Might as well get it out of the way now and clear the roster spot.<\/p>\n

So, lets get to the main discussion item.  What to do with Tanner Roark<\/strong>?  He’s projecting to a $9.8M salary in his last year of Arbitration.  That’s a hefty sum.  He was fantastic as a starter for this team in 2014 and 2016.  He struggled when the team jerked around his role in 2015.  And the last two seasons he’s essentially been a just-slightly-worse-than-average MLB starter.  Sounds like a classic 4th starter type.  So is a 4th starter worth $9.8M?<\/p>\n

He’s not getting any younger; he’ll be playing in his age 32 season next year.  He’s trending the wrong way; you can easily make the argument that the odds of him being more 2018 next year than 2016 are high.<\/p>\n

So the real question is this: can you replace him in the trade market or in Free Agency and find someone comparable?   There havn’t been many signings thus far to use as a barometer for this off-season, but one stuck out in my mind; CC Sabathia<\/strong>.  Sabathia is older, fatter, and better.  And he signed for $8M.  All the projections for 4th\/5th starter types seem to be falling in the $6M AAV range.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately for the team; they’ve basically shredded the top of their starting pitcher prospect ranks in trades lately so they have no real options for internal replacement here.  If you non-tender Roark, then w\/o additional acquisitions your 2019 Rotation is:<\/p>\n