{"id":16381,"date":"2019-12-01T08:36:48","date_gmt":"2019-12-01T13:36:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16381"},"modified":"2022-11-17T09:45:35","modified_gmt":"2022-11-17T14:45:35","slug":"non-tender-analysis-for-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16381","title":{"rendered":"Non-Tender analysis for 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_14557\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/TaylorMIchael-of-via-nbcsports.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-14557\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14557\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-14557\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/TaylorMIchael-of-via-nbcsports-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"To Non-tender or not to non-tender, that is the question for Taylor tomorrow. (AP Photo\/Nick Wass via nbcsports.com)\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/TaylorMIchael-of-via-nbcsports-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/TaylorMIchael-of-via-nbcsports.jpg 610w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-14557\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">To Non-tender or not to non-tender, that is the question for Taylor tomorrow. (AP Photo\/Nick Wass via nbcsports.com)<\/p><\/div>\n<p>We&#8217;ve already covered this topic&nbsp;a bit&nbsp; in the payroll and options analysis spots, but since the official non-tender deadline is this week (tomorrow, 12\/2\/19 at 8pm EST to be specific), I thought i&#8217;d throw out the players, give some external opinions and then my own.<\/p>\n<p>Like a lot of posts, this is an annual tradition.&nbsp; Here&#8217;s versions of this post from previous years: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15515\">2018<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=14603\">2017<\/a>, 2016, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11661\">2015<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10071\">2014<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7994\">2013<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5036\">2012<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3346\">2011<\/a>.&nbsp; Must have been busy in Dec of 2016.<\/p>\n<p>First, here&#8217;s our list of arb-eligible players; 9 in all.<\/p>\n\n<table id=\"tablepress-94\" class=\"tablepress tablepress-id-94\">\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"row-1\">\n\t<th class=\"column-1\">Player<\/th><th class=\"column-2\">Current or 2019 Contract<\/th><th class=\"column-3\">2019 Lux Tax<\/th><th class=\"column-4\">2019 Real dollars<\/th><th class=\"column-5\">My Guess<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody class=\"row-striping row-hover\">\n<tr class=\"row-2\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Turner, Trea<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">1 year\/$3.725M (2019)<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">3725000<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">3725000<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">8000000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-3\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Taylor, Michael<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">1 year\/$3.25M (2019)<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">3250000<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">3250000<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">4500000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-4\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Strickland, Hunter<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">1 year\/$1.3M (2019)<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">1300000<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">1300000<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2500000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-5\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Elias, Roenis<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">1 year\/$910,000 (2019)<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">910000<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">910000<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">1300000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-6\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Guerra, Javy<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">1 year\/$800,000 (2019)<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">800000<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">800000<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">1200000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-7\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Difo, Wilmer<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">1 year\/$581,100 (2019)<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">581000<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">581000<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">800000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-8\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Ross, Joe<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">1 year\/$1M (2019)<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">1000000<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">1000000<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">1400000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-9\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Glover, Koda<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">1 year\/$564,300 (2019)<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">564300<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">564300<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">750000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-10\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Barrett, Aaron<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">1 year\/minor league<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">150000<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">150000<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">750000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<!-- #tablepress-94 from cache -->\n<p>Here&#8217;s external analysis links to the same:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2019\/11\/2019-non-tender-candidates-mlb-2019.html\">MLBtraderumors.com published its list of non-tender candidates<\/a> and for the Nats they listed the following players (and only the following players):&nbsp;<strong>Wilmer Difo,&nbsp;<\/strong><strong>Javy Guerra,&nbsp;<\/strong><strong>Koda Glover,&nbsp;<\/strong><strong>Hunter Strickland<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>MLB.com posted its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/non-tender-candidates-for-every-team?partnerId=zh-20191202-156907-47943&amp;query_id=1026&amp;bt_ee=OfL3KckHWrSrH9MraRiMyrYEqM%2FKB6g7GOt1NiR9qQwLz5S46LWha6iLq34uTwRi&amp;bt_ts=1575290285790\">non-tender league wide analysis<\/a> and also mentioned Strickland.<\/li>\n<li>Masn&#8217;s&nbsp;<strong>Mark Zuckerman&nbsp;<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.masnsports.com\/nationals-pastime\/2019\/12\/nationals-face-several-decisions-at-non-tender-deadline.html\">posted his analysis<\/a> day of.&nbsp; He thinks that&nbsp;Glover is at the most danger of getting cut.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p>So, lets go player by player and talk about what I think will happen (in the order of the table above):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Turner, Trea<\/strong>; obvious tender.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Taylor, Michael<\/strong>: I&#8217;m torn.&nbsp; I just can&#8217;t see spending $3.5M or more (he made $3.25M last season) on a guy who you had to send to AA because he was so bad last year.&nbsp; But, its also notable that he featured prominently in the playoffs, and not his likely replacement if we non-tender him&nbsp;<strong>Andrew Stevenson<\/strong> .&nbsp; When&nbsp;<strong>Victor Robles<\/strong> went out, it was Taylor who played the entire LA series and performed well.&nbsp; Maybe the team still rates him.&nbsp; Its interesting that Taylor was specifically not listed by MLBtraderumors &#8230; maybe $3.5M for a 4th OF that you grew at home and who you know is a fantastic defender and who can string together solid streaks at the plate is worth keeping.&nbsp; I&#8217;m coming around on Taylor and think we keep him.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Strickland, Hunter<\/strong>: i just can&#8217;t see non-tendering him a half a season after acquiring him.&nbsp; Even if he wasn&#8217;t terribly effective in 2019 for us, he was also coming off injury and was a closer-quality guy for years in SF.&nbsp; His salary only projects to about $2-$2.5M and that&#8217;s a good gamble.&nbsp; Keep him.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Elias, Roenis<\/strong>: as with Strickland; we just got him and then he&nbsp; got hurt.&nbsp; Stupidly running the bases (please, can we have a universal DH yet??), he pulled a hamstring that basically never healed.&nbsp; Easy tender for 2020.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Guerra, Javy<\/strong>: numbers weren&#8217;t great, but he handled his DFA with grace and apparently this won&#8217;t be forgotten by management.&nbsp; Made the WS roster and pitched.&nbsp; I like the guy, think he&#8217;s a fighter, and i think he&#8217;s a good middle relief candidate.&nbsp; I&#8217;d tender him.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Difo, Wilmer<\/strong>; first year arb eligible; split time between AAA and MLB this year.&nbsp; I mean, you need a backup infielder, and his numbers aren&#8217;t terribly bad for a guy who can play a number of positions.&nbsp; I&#8217;m not sure why he&#8217;s a NT candidate; i&#8217;d rather have him at $800k than&nbsp;<strong>Adrian Sanchez<\/strong> at $550k.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ross, Joe<\/strong>: obvious tender<\/li>\n<li><strong>Glover, Koda<\/strong>: tough one here.&nbsp; Glover has closer quality stuff, but now has two straight seasons of injury and faces arbitration.&nbsp; I&#8217;ve got him projected at just $750k (MLBtraderumors even less): why not tender him at that price then if you cut him in ST you&#8217;re on the hook for 1\/6th of it ($125K).&nbsp; That&#8217;s peanuts for a guy who you know can be an 8th-9th inning reliever.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Barrett, Aaron<\/strong>: well, it&#8217;d be pretty cynical for the team to call him up in Sept for the sob story of redemption then ruthlessly NT him to save $750k right?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>One last note: even if you tender a guy, if you drop him mid-spring training you&#8217;re only on the hook for a small portion of his salary.&nbsp; So some of these non-tenders may turn into &#8220;tender now, do arbitration then use spring training as a tryout on the cheap.&#8221;&nbsp; None of our real NT candidates really are that expensive, so It wouldn&#8217;t surprise me to tender all of them in some respects.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m predicting zero non-tenders.&nbsp; I thought initially we may NT at least 4 of these guys, especially Taylor, but team actions seem to indicate otherwise.<\/p>\n<p>Agree?&nbsp; Disagree?<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>12\/3\/19: post NT deadline, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.masnsports.com\/nationals-pastime\/2019\/12\/guerra-non-tendered-nationals-will-bring-back-others.html\">here&#8217;s what the team did<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Non Tendered Guerra and Glover (who announced his retirement)<\/li>\n<li>signed Strickland and Difo to 1yr deals<\/li>\n<li>tendered Turner, Taylor, Ross, Elias<\/li>\n<li>?? on Barrett; i thought he was arb-eligible but maybe not.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;ve already covered this topic&nbsp;a bit&nbsp; in the payroll and options analysis spots, but since the official non-tender deadline is this week (tomorrow, 12\/2\/19 at 8pm EST to be specific), I thought i&#8217;d throw out the players, give some external opinions and then my own. Like a lot of posts, this is an annual tradition.&nbsp; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,4559],"tags":[916,3568,4297,2691,2827,708,2583,2426,2650],"class_list":["post-16381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","category-non-tender","tag-aaron-barrett","tag-hunter-strickland","tag-javy-guerra","tag-joe-ross","tag-koda-glover","tag-michael-taylor","tag-roenis-elias","tag-trea-turner","tag-wilmer-difo"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16381"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16381\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17887,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16381\/revisions\/17887"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}