{"id":16923,"date":"2021-02-18T12:18:29","date_gmt":"2021-02-18T17:18:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16923"},"modified":"2021-02-22T13:19:34","modified_gmt":"2021-02-22T18:19:34","slug":"spring-training-2021-nri-discussion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16923","title":{"rendered":"Spring Training 2021 NRI Discussion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/parragerardobabyshark-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16929\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/parragerardobabyshark-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/parragerardobabyshark-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/parragerardobabyshark-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/parragerardobabyshark.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Parra may bring the shark back to Washington in 2021 as an NRI.  Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is our 7th straight year doing this recurring post; a look at the Non-Roster Invitees (NRIs) upon their official announcement ahead of spring training.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here&#8217;s past posts by year: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16500\">2020<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15666\">2019<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15657\">2018<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=13409\">2017<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11953\">2016<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10264\">2015<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The team has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.masnsports.com\/nationals-pastime\/2021\/02\/nats-invite-71-total-players-to-big-league-camp.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+masnsportsNationals+%28Nationals+on+MASNsports.com%29\">invited 71 players to spring training<\/a>, which means that joining the 39 members of the 40-man roster are an astounding 32 NRIs.  FYI: the <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc\/\">big board is now updated<\/a> for all 32 NRIs, who are shaded in purple.  2020 was a weird year, which probably is why we&#8217;re seeing so many NRIs, and so many NRIs who are so young.  Normally NRIs are veteran MLFAs, AAA\/4-A guys and perhaps one or two top prospects.  This year, the team has invited a slew of guys who have never played above A-ball, or who were drafted just last year.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why do we care about NRIs?  Because there&#8217;s a high likelihood we&#8217;ll see these guys either make the roster or get called up later on this year.  Since the 2015 season: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>9 NRIs have made the 25-man roster straight out of Spring Training (and Guthrie technically made it 10 since he got called up a few days later and was always intended to be the 5th starter in 2017).&nbsp; Basically every year an NRI has made the roster for six seasons running.<\/li><li>29 NRIs eventually played for the MLB team at some point that same season they were in spring training.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So its likely that we&#8217;re going to see a lot of these NRIs at some point in the future.&nbsp; Like, on average at least 4-5 of these NRIs are going to play for this team in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lets review the NRIs and make some predictions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here&#8217;s the list of 32 NRI&#8217;s for 2021, organized by player type:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>RH Starters:<strong> Jefry Rodriguez, Paolo Espino, Jackson Rutledge, Cade Cavalli, Cole Henry, Tyler Dyson, Todd Peterson<\/strong><\/li><li>RH Relievers: <strong>Aaron Barrett, Tyler Eppler, Javy Guerra, Gabe Klobotis, Jacob Condra-Bogan,<\/strong> <strong>Bryan Bonnell, Jeremy Jeffress<\/strong><\/li><li>LH Starters: <strong>Tim Cate<\/strong><\/li><li>LH Relievers: <strong>Luis Avilan, TJ McFarland, Matt Cronin<\/strong><\/li><li>Catchers: <strong>Raudy Read, Wellington Castillo, Israel Pineda, Jakson Reetz, Blake Swihart, Brandon Snyder<\/strong> (who is oddly listed as a Catcher but really is a 1B)<\/li><li>Infielders: <strong>Adrian Sanchez, Hernan Perez, Jordy Mercer, Jackson Cluff, Drew Mendoza<\/strong><\/li><li>Outfielders: <strong>Carlos Tocci, Yasmany Tomas, Gerardo Parra, Cody Wilson<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(note: post-publishing edit; I had Bonnell as a LHP; thanks for the correction.  2\/22\/21 added Jeffress).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So lets squint and make some predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Do any of these guys stand a chance at making the Opening day roster<\/strong>?\u00a0 There are a couple of opportunities for these guys this year, absolutely.   All of this is assuming no injuries to the current 40-man.<ol><li><strong><em>Lefty Reliever<\/em><\/strong>: right now the bullpen has two lefties: <strong>Brad Hand<\/strong> and <strong>Sam Clay<\/strong>.  Hand seems like he&#8217;s going to be the closer, while Clay has never pitched in the majors.  So, yeah, there&#8217;s opportunity here.  <strong>Avilan <\/strong>has the most MLB time but his numbers have been iffy lately.  <strong>McFarland<\/strong> has as much MLB time as Avilan and has better recent numbers.  <strong>Cronin <\/strong>could surprise here, but he&#8217;s never pitched above A-ball.  He&#8217;s got amazing numbers though.  The team could also be looking to convert one of its lefty starters to a reliever (<strong>Romero, Braymer<\/strong>) &#8230; but those guys would be far more valuable as effective starters.  At the end of the day, I think McFarland breaks camp as the loogy.<\/li><li><strong><em>7th\/8th bullpen arm\/RH Reliever<\/em><\/strong>:  Right now on the depth chart, the team only has 9 true &#8220;relievers&#8221; on its 40-man.  They&#8217;re going to break camp with 8 of them.  The options game probably means they carry the loser of <strong>Ross\/Voth\/Fedde<\/strong> 5th starter competition as the 8th reliever, meaning that there&#8217;s possibly some competition for that last righty out of the pen.  Look for that spot to be competed between <strong>Finnegan, Bacus<\/strong> and then the likes of veteran NRI <strong>Guerra<\/strong>.  I&#8217;ll bet the team breaks camp with Guerra; he&#8217;s been there before and the team knows him, sending Finnegan and Bacus to AAA.   <strong>2\/22\/21 update<\/strong>: with the Jeffress signing, I think he goes to the head of the list above Guerra.<\/li><li><strong><em>4th OF<\/em><\/strong>; Is there really a competition here?  I don&#8217;t believe there is.  But a 5th OF could be in the works as a bench bat.  See next.<\/li><li><strong><em>Bench Bat<\/em><\/strong>: here&#8217;s our current projected Bench bats: <strong>Harrison,  Zimmerman.<\/strong>  Not much there.  I like <strong>Parra <\/strong>as a glue-guy, clubhouse guy, spare part kind of player.  Plus he hits lefty.  Plus lets be honest; his Baby Shark thing is the kind of fan engagement phenomenon that you just can&#8217;t buy in terms of publicity.  Not that there&#8217;s going to be any damn fans.<\/li><li> <strong><em>Spare Infielder<\/em><\/strong>: do we really think <strong>Garcia <\/strong>is the backup infielder?  I don&#8217;t think so: i think Garcia goes back to AAA and one of <strong>Sanchez\/Mercer\/Perez <\/strong>makes it as a veteran infielder.  Given our Pittsburgh connection, money on Mercer.<\/li><\/ol><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So my prediction?  multiple NRIs joining the team: McFarland, Jeffress, Parra and Mercer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Do any of these guys project to feature at all in 2021?  <\/strong>Absolutely.  Past my four NRI predictions, I can see more than a few of these guys getting call-ups later on if they stick.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Who among these guys project to eventually get on the 40-man<\/strong>?&nbsp;  There&#8217;s a bunch of our top prospects on this list: Cavalli, Henry, Rutledge, Cate, Cronin.  And there&#8217;s lesser-known but older\/effective guys who seem like good bets to put themselves onto the roster.  Nats spring training games should be great.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Are there any surprise non-NRIs in the system right now?<\/strong>  Yeah a couple surprise non-invites.  Two arms that were on the 60-man last year are not invited: <strong>Nick Wells<\/strong> and <strong>Sterling Sharp<\/strong>.  Wells is a lefty reliever; why not invite him and have him compete?  Sharp has MLB time; why not put him in camp?  No other real surprise non-invites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NRI Details by year, in case you were wondering&#8230; (this is recycled material, carried along year by year)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16500\">Summary of NRIs for 2020<\/a>: 22 total<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Three (3) made the 30-man roster out of Spring training:&nbsp;<strong>Javy Guerra,&nbsp;Sam Freeman,&nbsp;Emilio Bonifacio<\/strong><\/li><li>4 more eventually got added and called-up: tbd by end of 2020 season (<strong>Wil Crowe, Dakota Bacus, Luis Garcia, Yadiel Hernandez<\/strong>).<\/li><li>0 more since been added to 40-man post 2020-season: tbd before 2021 season, but thanks to odd 2020 60-man roster all the NRIs under consideration here already got the callup.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15666\">Summary of NRIs for 2019<\/a>: 18 total<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>One (1)&nbsp;made the 25-man roster out of spring:&nbsp;<strong>Jake Noll<\/strong><\/li><li>Three (3) more eventually got added and called up:&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>Aaron Barrett,&nbsp;Tres Barrera,&nbsp;Carter Kieboom<\/strong><\/li><li>Zero (0) others have since been added to 40-man (as of 2\/6\/20).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15657\">Summary of NRIs from ST 2018<\/a>: 21 NRIs total:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>One (1)&nbsp;made the 25-man roster out of spring:&nbsp;<strong>Miguel Montero<\/strong><\/li><li>Four (4) eventually got added and called up:&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>Tim Collins, Moises Sierra, Jimmy Cordero, Spencer Kieboom.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Special Mention to&nbsp;<strong>Edwin Jackson<\/strong>, who opted out of Washington then excelled for Oakland later in 2018).<\/li><li>Zero (0) others have since been added to 40-man<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=13409\">Summary of NRIs from ST 2017<\/a>: 24 NRIs total:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Zero (0)&nbsp;made the 25-man roster out of spring (though technically one kinda was; see next).<\/li><li>Five (5) eventually got added and called up (<strong>Jeremy&nbsp;Guthrie, Matt Albers, Grant Green,<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>Jacob Turner<\/strong>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<strong>Andrew&nbsp;Stevenson<\/strong>): Guthrie was the 5th starter, stashed in XST for a few days before his ill-fated debut.<\/li><li>Five (5) have since been added to 40-man (<strong>Erick Fedde, Taylor Hill, Kyle McGowin, Wander Suero, Tim Collins)<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11953\">Summary of NRIs from ST 2016<\/a>: 20 NRIs total (plus perhaps a couple more that got signed late):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Two (2) made the 25-man roster: (<strong>Chris Heisey&nbsp;<\/strong>and as noted in the comments, thanks for the correction,&nbsp;<strong>Matt Belisle<\/strong>).<\/li><li>Two (2) eventually got added and called up (<strong>Lucas Giolito, Sean Burnett<\/strong>)<\/li><li>Two (2) have since been added to 40-man (<strong>Matt Skole, Austin Voth<\/strong>)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10264\">Summary of NRIs from ST 2015<\/a>: 20 NRIs total:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Two (2) made the 25-man roster out of spring (<strong>Dan Uggla<\/strong>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<strong>Clint Robinson<\/strong>).&nbsp; Adding&nbsp;<strong>Reed Johnson<\/strong> as a late-spring signee who made the team after his release from Miami (H\/T Sao)<\/li><li>Two (2) others eventually got added and called up (<strong>Rafael Martin<\/strong>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<strong>Emmanuel Burriss<\/strong>)<\/li><li>Two (2) others were young catchers since added to the 40-man (<strong>Spencer Kieboom, Pedro Severino<\/strong>)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(I believe the above analysis is correct; feel free to comment if i&#8217;ve missed someone.&nbsp; this is a bit tougher to keep track of b\/c the team often signs MLFAs mid-spring then technically gives them NRIs &#8230; especially for Vets, and I may miss some from the original announcements).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is our 7th straight year doing this recurring post; a look at the Non-Roster Invitees (NRIs) upon their official announcement ahead of spring training. Here&#8217;s past posts by year: 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015. The team has invited 71 players to spring training, which means that joining the 39 members of the 40-man [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[916,3684,1815,4498,3333,2435,4247,4394,4501,3881,4396,2005,4184,2425,4496,2084,4499,3267,4255,4181,4030,4297,1876,2691,4500,3973,3051,2658,2760,36,4503,3565,3763,4497,4188,3656,4459],"class_list":["post-16923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","tag-aaron-barrett","tag-adrian-sanchez","tag-austin-voth","tag-balke-swihart","tag-ben-braymer","tag-brandon-finnegan","tag-bryan-bonnell","tag-cade-cavalli","tag-carlos-tocci","tag-cody-wilson","tag-cole-henry","tag-dakota-bacus","tag-drew-mendoza","tag-erick-fedde","tag-gabe-klobotis","tag-gerardo-parra","tag-hernan-perez","tag-israel-pineda","tag-jackson-cluff","tag-jackson-rutledge","tag-jacob-condra-bogan","tag-javy-guerra","tag-jefry-rodriguez","tag-joe-ross","tag-jordy-mercer","tag-josh-harrison","tag-luis-garcia","tag-paolo-espino","tag-raudy-read","tag-ryan-zimmerman","tag-sam-clay","tag-seth-romero","tag-tim-cate","tag-tj-mcfarland","tag-todd-peterson","tag-tyler-dyson","tag-tyler-eppler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16923"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16923\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16936,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16923\/revisions\/16936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}