{"id":19742,"date":"2026-07-15T08:35:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T12:35:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=19742"},"modified":"2026-07-15T08:35:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T12:35:13","slug":"2026-nationals-draft-top-10-rounds-overview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=19742","title":{"rendered":"2026 Nationals Draft Top 10 Rounds Overview"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Brunson-Chase-TC-2026-via-yahoo-sports.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" src=\"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Brunson-Chase-TC-2026-via-yahoo-sports.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19748\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Brunson-Chase-TC-2026-via-yahoo-sports.jpeg 640w, https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Brunson-Chase-TC-2026-via-yahoo-sports-300x200.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chase Brunson was our 2nd rounder out of TCU.  Photo via Yahoo Sports<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here&#8217;s a run through the first 10 picks we made this weekend.  This post shows the ranks of our players on the various draft boards, plus a summary of any scouting reports\/draft analysis I could find from the major pundits\/shops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here&#8217;s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I&#8217;m updating this week in as close to real-time as I can given my current employment status :-):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY\/edit?usp=sharing\">Nationals Draft Tracker<\/a>: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There&#8217;s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2026 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.  <strong>New This year<\/strong>: i&#8217;m going to embed direct links to college stat pages for easy reference, since i&#8217;m looking them up anyway.  For Prep kids, just a link to their Perfect Game profile, which will have video clips.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/draft\/tracker\/2025\/all\/team\/nationals\">MLB&#8217;s Draft Tracker<\/a>, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.  <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As of this writing, I have updated the Draft Tracker main page for the 2026 class, and have populated the 2026 detailed tab.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here&#8217;s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I&#8217;ll reference below when assessing the &#8220;value&#8221; of the pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Baseball America Final <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/rankings\/2026-top-mlb-draft-prospects\/\">pre-draft at 500 on 7\/8\/26<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Athletic\/Keith Law <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7406740\/2026\/07\/01\/mlb-draft-2026-top-100-ranking-roch-cholowsky-vahn-lackey-grady-emerson\/\">final Draft top 100 big board<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>MLBPipeline final Draft <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/nationals\/news\/top-250-draft-prospects-for-2026\">Top 250 on 7\/5\/26<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ESPN\/Kiley McDaniel <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/49297819\/2026-mlb-draft-rankings-top-250-prospects-roch-cholowsky-grady-emerson-vahn-lackey\">Final 250 ranked board<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fangraphs\/Longenhagen <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/prospects\/the-board\/2026-mlb-draft\/summary\">final Draft Board<\/a> with around 150 players ranked.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prospects1500 Draft Rank: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prospects1500.com\/mlb-draft\/2026-mlb-draft-top-100-prospects\/\">Top 100 for 2026<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Baseball prospectus <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseballprospectus.com\/prospects\/article\/108536\/2026-mlb-draft-board-final-edition\/\">final Draft board<\/a> 7\/8\/26 (paywall)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>1st Round, <\/strong>11th overall: <strong>Chris Hacopian<\/strong>, a College Jr. 2B from Texas A&amp;M<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ranks by major shops: BA=11, Law=34, MLB=14, ESPN=13, Fangraphs=8, Prospects1500=9<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=19736\">See here for the quick post I made specifically<\/a> about Hacopian and my reaction. I won&#8217;t repeat that info here, but will note the interesting discrepancy of Hacopian on the ranking boards presented here. Every shop has him between 8-14 except &#8230; our friend Keith Law, ever the contrarian, whose writeup on Hacopian doesn&#8217;t really say anything critical of him except to note that he missed a month and hasn&#8217;t moved well since he returned.  It&#8217;s almost like he dumped Hacopian way down when he got hurt, then never revisited him upon his return. I wonder where Law would have him if he had never gotten hurt.  I can&#8217;t imagine, based on the consensus of his ranking in the class, that this is an under-slot pick by any means, so I&#8217;d expect him to sign at or near slot.  Maybe he saves a little bit off of the $6.1M figure, money that we can throw at the two prep kids.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2nd round #<\/strong>42 overall: <strong>Chase Brunson<\/strong>, a College Jr. OF (CF) from Texas Christian<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ranks by major shops: BA=47, Law=24, MLB=50, ESPN=38 Fangraphs=52, Prospects1500=37<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brunson slashed .304\/.462\/.556 this year, and was a 3-year starter in CF for TCU. He&#8217;s got 50s or 55s across the board for every tool, showing promise everywhere but not a stand-out tool in any of the 5 disciplines. Law likes him the most, saying he&#8217;s got 20\/20 capabilities with even more power there, and even if he can&#8217;t stay in CF he&#8217;s got the arm strength for RF. By all accounts he was better in 2025 but made adjustments this season, perhaps because he split time in CF with another 1st round talent teammate in <strong>Sawyer Strosnider<\/strong>. That caused him to slip from being a late 1st rounder to an early 2nd rounder, and I sense this could be a steal for us. I&#8217;d guess this is another slot pick, no real savings here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>3rd round #<\/strong>78 overall: <strong>Luke Williams<\/strong>, a Prep SS from Franklin Regional HS (near Pittsburgh, PA)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ranks by major shops: BA=99, Law=outside top 100, MLB=90, ESPN=57, Fangraphs=67, Prospects1500=83<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Williams is a Vanderbilt commit (one shop has him going to UVA but everywhere else says Vandy), but a 3rd round selection with a slot value of slightly more than $1M should buy him out of that with enough cash. I&#8217;m guessing he goes a bit over-slot, especially since Vandy is a premier college destination for players and they have a ton of money. Both BA and MLB put 70 grades on him for speed and arm strength. He&#8217;s a true SS with enough arm to handle CF if he can&#8217;t cut it there, and he&#8217;s got more than a bit of power with 50s there. The big worry here is an underdeveloped hit tool, but that&#8217;s not uncommon for a prep kid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>4th round #<\/strong>106 overall: <strong>Cooper Harris<\/strong>, a Prep RHP from Flower Mound HS ( a suburb of Dallas, TX)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ranks by major shops: BA=83, Law=55, MLB=76, ESPN=110, Fangraphs=76, Prospects1500=76<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Across the board, we seemed to get real value from this pick.  Law likes him a ton, describing him as a 3\/4 starter with clean mechanics who a good franchise can easily develop.  Is that the Nats?  We&#8217;ll see.  He&#8217;s super  young (he just turned 18 before the draft), sits 94-96, has a huge spin rate that naturally misses bats.  BA gives him a 60 fastball and two 55s on his primary breaking pitches, which sounds like a good sign.  I suspect a Texas kid with a commit to Texas will need more than 4th round money, so look for this to be an overslot deal too.  As much as prep RHP are risky, this isn&#8217;t a 100mph kid with crazy mechanics; this sounds like a player who is getting guys out without the max effort that leads to injury.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>5<strong>th round #<\/strong>138 overall: <strong>Daniel Cuvet<\/strong>, a College Jr. 3B from University of Miami<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ranks by major shops: BA=97, Law=87, MLB=120, ESPN=152, Fangraphs=unranked, Prospects1500=unranked<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cuvet, for those who pay attention to such things, was a consensus <a href=\"https:\/\/d1baseball.com\/season-preview\/2026-d1baseball-preseason-all-americans\/\">pre-season All American<\/a> heading into this season after hitting 24 homers as a freshman and then posting a .372\/.450\/.708 slash-line as a sophomore. He&#8217;s a big dude: 6&#8217;3&#8243; 240, with 70 grade power. The &#8220;ding&#8221; on him was swing and miss, which he seemed to be cleaning up early this season with more walks than Ks (30\/33 K\/BB in his 41 games. His season was cut short by a stress fracture in his back, something that had been bugging him all year and dampening his stats even before he hung &#8217;em up. He stopped playing by the end of April, and missed the rest of the season. Question is this: is he ready to turn pro, or does he want to go back to school to try to increase his stock? It&#8217;s no guarantee; he could get hurt again next year and be looking at a teen-round bonus, or he could get squeezed based on lack of remaining eligibility. He played too much in 2026 to redshirt. So, odds are he&#8217;ll sign for something likely around slot and move to a pro organization to rehab and move forward. A healthy Cuvet looks really promising, and reminds one of Yohandy Morales, another slugger from Miami who was a 3B in college but who probably becomes at 1B in the pros. If he returns to his sophomore year form, this could be a steal of a pick in the 5th.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>6th round #<\/strong>167 overall: <strong>Cooper Allen<\/strong>, a College Jr. RHP (starter) from UNC-Wilmington<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ranks by major shops: unranked anywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first of our underslot picks to pay the prep players, Allen was UNC-Wilmington&#8217;s Saturday Starter this season (aka their #2 starter), started 15 games and went 8-4 with a 2.79 ERA for the team. 96\/23 K\/BB in 87 IP, solid BAA of .210. Seems like a solid college pitcher.  His scouting report at BA reports that he sits 90-91, with a mid-80s cutter that he uses to get guys out. He&#8217;s undersized (6&#8217;1&#8243; 205) and seems to rely less on velocity and more on pitching to get guys out. He&#8217;s a college junior with eligibility left, but isn&#8217;t a huge prospect, so I&#8217;m suspecting he&#8217;ll take a haircut on his slot value ($410k) and will turn pro, with little left to prove in college.  He is not currently in the transfer portal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>7th round #<\/strong>196 overall: <strong>Gage Peterson<\/strong>, a College Jr. RHP (starter) from Appalachian State<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ranks by major shops: BA: 344.  Nobody else has him ranked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Peterson went 8-1 and posted a 3.28 ERA in 15 starts and 85 innings, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate for App State as their Sunday Starter (aka their #3), who he joined for his junior year after two years at a Juco. He sits 90-94 but is a big frame guy who BA thinks can throw much harder. 107\/34 K\/BB in 89 innings; that&#8217;s solid. He&#8217;s a big guy (6&#8217;5&#8243;) who scouts seem to dream on. BA&#8217;s scouting report thought he was an 8th-12th rounder; we got him in the 7th, which tells me he&#8217;s taking something closer to the $150k range instead of slot of $322k.  He is not currently in the transfer portal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>8th round #<\/strong>226 overall: <strong>Max Hansmann<\/strong>, a College Senior RHP (starter) from Evansville<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ranks by major shops: none.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our first senior\/bonus pool savings pick, Hansmann was the Friday night starter for Evansville. He had solid numbers: 4-3 in 15 s tarts, 3.99 ERA.1.38 WHIP. A K\/inning. But we&#8217;re talking about Evansville and the Missouri Valley Conference, so impressions should be tempered. I don&#8217;t think this is a $1k signing, but I can&#8217;t imagine him getting much more than $10k. Boston Smith was a senior draftee who got $50k last year; I&#8217;d expect Hansmann to be somewhere in-between. I cannot find any scouting reports on him, even on BA, which kind of tells you what you need to know about the guy.  He is not currently in the transfer portal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>9th round #<\/strong>256 overall: <strong>Cashel Dugger<\/strong>, a College Jr. C from UCLA<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ranks by major shops: BA: #333<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dugger&#8217;s rank is entirely driven on his defensive capabilities and skill at handling a pitching staff. He slashed .251\/.378\/.382 this season, and has never slugged .400 in his career. His BA scouting report basically says he&#8217;s set to have a long career as a backup catcher in some organization, which is what it is. I can&#8217;t imagine he signs for a ton of money (slot is $216k), and I can&#8217;t imagine he agreed to be picked unless he intended to go pro. UCLA as a team kind of peaked this year, sitting at #1 the entire season with a slew of top players, and for Dugger to stick around for a rebuilding season may seem out of the cards. I&#8217;ll bet he signs for something slightly below slot but a bit above the $150k standard 11-20th round figure.  He is not currently in the transfer portal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>10th round #<\/strong>286 overall: Nick Williams, a 5th year Senior OF from Michigan State<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ranks by major shops: none<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Williams was Michigan State&#8217;s leading hitter this season, slashing .333\/.434\/.540 with a bit of power and a few SBs.  He&#8217;s probably limited positionally to a corner due to his size and lack of speed, but could be a nice older presence on a team.  Odds are this is a super bonus saving pick, in the $10k or less space.  But, he seems like a nice pick here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, that being said, Here&#8217;s what I think the team does with its bonus dollars.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Over Slot picks: Williams, Harris<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Slot picks (or close to it): Hacopian, Brunson, Cuvet<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Under Slot picks: Allen (250k savings), Peterson ($150k savings), Hansmann ($225k savings), Dugger ($75k savings), Williams ($190k savings)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So that would give the team right around $900k to work with before the 5% cushion of an additional $600k.  Can $1.5M get both Williams and Harris signed?  Maybe: if Hacopian takes a haircut off his $6.1M slot, that extra money could seal the deal.  Say Hacopian signed for $5.5m; that&#8217;d be an extra $600k to throw at the two HS players and could get it done, bringing both of them into the $1.75m range easily.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;ll post the 11th-&gt;20th round picks analysis\/overview in the next post later this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here&#8217;s a run through the first 10 picks we made this weekend. This post shows the ranks of our players on the various draft boards, plus a summary of any scouting reports\/draft analysis I could find from the major pundits\/shops. Here&#8217;s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I&#8217;m updating this week [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,4324],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-draft","category-prospects"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19742","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19742"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19742\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19759,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19742\/revisions\/19759"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}