{"id":312,"date":"2010-11-05T14:02:48","date_gmt":"2010-11-05T18:02:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=312"},"modified":"2013-04-23T14:12:37","modified_gmt":"2013-04-23T18:12:37","slug":"greinke-trade-question-from-klaw-chat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=312","title":{"rendered":"Greinke Trade Question"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zack Greinke at photo day 2010. Photo by Harry How\/Getty Images North America<\/p><\/div>\n

I have kind of a love-hate relationship with Keith Law <\/strong>sometimes.\u00a0 I think he’s a pretty darn good talent evaluator and there’s a reason he had a front office job (and now the scouting analysis job).\u00a0 He even once responded to an article follow-up email I sent him where I thought he was bashing Bowden’s moves a bit to heavily (ironic in that i’m now clearly on the anti-Bowden track as he was all along).\u00a0 However, I think he over-analyzes and is a bit TOO stat heavy sometimes, and I believe he over-values certain players.<\/p>\n

In yesterday’s chat<\/a> on ESPN (insider only, apologies), there were a few Washington related questions.\u00a0 Here was one that I couldn’t quite believe though:<\/p>\n

Joseph (Sacramento, CA) asks, “J.Zimmermann, Espinosa, Burgess, Detwiler for Greinke? Does this work for both sides?”<\/em><\/p>\n

Klaw answer: “It certainly works for Washington<\/em>.”<\/p>\n

Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong>, Espinosa<\/strong>, Burgess <\/strong>and Detwiler <\/strong>for Greinke <\/strong>straight up.\u00a0 I say, no way.\u00a0 I have to disagree with Law here.<\/p>\n

That’s trading your current #2 pitcher, your anticipated starting 2nd baseman, your best OF prospect not named Bryce Harper<\/strong>, and a prospect lefty starting pitcher\/former 1st round draft choice (who may not have great MLB stats but is a lefty who throws mid 90s) for a potential #1 starter.\u00a0 I say Potential because, if you look at Greinke’s career numbers<\/a> they’re not exactly overwhelming.\u00a0 Yes he had a phenomenal 2009.\u00a0 What happened in 2010?\u00a0 Era+ of 100 means he was MLB average.\u00a0 The years before he was a good but not overpowering starter on a bad team (putting up ERA+ figures of 126 and 124; good but not great). \u00a0 There’s no promise of Greinke returning to that form (though the move to the NL will certainly help).\u00a0 Is he a Ron Guidry <\/strong>or Rick<\/strong> Sutcliffe <\/strong>pitcher (guys who had one fabulous year and then came back down to earth)?<\/p>\n

I think I’d be interested in Greinke (who wouldn’t?) but at a lesser price.\u00a0 I’d trade Zimmermann and Espinosa for him.\u00a0 Justification; Zimmermann is indeed a #2 starter quality guy but would be expendable with Greinke in the fold.\u00a0 Espinosa shows great promise and I like him, but we also have a couple of high-profile 2nd basemen prospects in the minors that would feature soon (Lombardozzi <\/strong>or Kobernus<\/strong>).\u00a0 Perhaps I’m as guilty as Law in overvaluing our own prospects, but to me Greinke isn’t good enough to merit the trade.\u00a0 If it was a better “Ace,” someone with a repeated track record of success (Felix Hernandez<\/strong>, Lincecum<\/strong>, Halladay<\/strong>), the haul would be easily worth it.<\/p>\n

But for Greinke, all 4 of those guys is too much.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I have kind of a love-hate relationship with Keith Law sometimes.\u00a0 I think he’s a pretty darn good talent evaluator and there’s a reason he had a front office job (and now the scouting analysis job).\u00a0 He even once responded to an article follow-up email I sent him where I thought he was bashing Bowden’s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5],"tags":[164,135,407,392,43,110,538,1432,1439,51,119,142,316,254],"class_list":["post-312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-natsgeneral","tag-bryce-harper","tag-danny-espinosa","tag-felix-hernandez","tag-jeff-kobernus","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-keith-law","tag-michael-burgess","tag-rick-sutcliffe","tag-ron-guidry","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-roy-halladay","tag-steve-lombardozzi","tag-tim-lincecum","tag-zack-greinke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=312"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":316,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312\/revisions\/316"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}