{"id":5513,"date":"2013-03-13T09:47:59","date_gmt":"2013-03-13T13:47:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5513"},"modified":"2013-03-13T09:47:59","modified_gmt":"2013-03-13T13:47:59","slug":"pitcher-wins-on-the-free-agency-market-an-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5513","title":{"rendered":"Pitcher Wins on the Free Agency Market; an analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Is Greinke's big new deal going to pay off for the Dodgers? We'll see. Photo Jeff Golden\/Getty Images<\/p><\/div>\n

One of my pet projects of recent years has been to track “major” Starting Pitcher free agent contracts and then to do analysis of how they turned out, on a Dollar per win basis. \u00a0This post is an analysis of this work along with some interesting conclusions to determine some of the “best” and “worst” free agent contracts ever awarded.<\/p>\n

This is mostly an analysis of past performance; there’s plenty of pitchers right now on major contracts that are just too soon into the deal to really draw any conclusions. \u00a0I’ve included in the spreadsheet all the major contracts signed this past off-season and will continue to do so if these guys get significant deals. \u00a0But we’ll have to wait a year to see how the first year of the contracts play out. \u00a0For all contracts that are in the middle of being played out, I’ve calculated how that contract is faring thus far.<\/p>\n

Some caveats to the data:\u00a0\u00a0For ease of analysis, I depend on the Average Annual Value (AAV) of the contracts as opposed to trying to figure out exactly how many wins were earned in which year of a varying contract amount. \u00a0Therefore (for example), Gio Gonzalez<\/strong>‘s contract may have only paid him $3.25M in 2012 but I’m using the full AAV of $8.4M for the purposes of the analysis (it would just be far too difficult to calculate each pitcher’s dollar per win on an annualized basis otherwise). \u00a0Also, I focus on dollars per Win, despite the known limitations of the “Win” statistic. \u00a0I have gone through and added in Quality Starts to the analysis, but that stat is also flawed in some respects (though it does do a pretty good job of indicating whether or not the starter has done his job). \u00a0Unfortunately the $\/QS doesn’t work out as nicely as $\/Win, since Pitcher Wins are still so prevalent in our player analysis. \u00a0I mean, after all, the goal of the game is to WIN the game, right?<\/p>\n

Here’s a quick cut-n-paste from the spreadsheet<\/a> (which is also available in the Links section to the right and on Google Docs) of some selected fields. \u00a0See the Google xls for everything. \u00a0Apologies if this doesn’t present well online. \u00a0The table is listed in descending order of $\/year AAV. \u00a0Blanks in the Wins and $AAV per win indicate that the contract has yet to begin. \u00a0I also threw in a couple of non-FA contracts at the end to show what a MLB-minimum successful starting pitcher looks like in comparison.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Last Name<\/td>\nFirst Name<\/td>\nTotal Value (includes club options)<\/td>\n$\/year AAV<\/td>\nContract Term<\/td>\nWins<\/td>\n$ AAV per win<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Clemens<\/td>\nRoger<\/td>\n$28,000,022<\/td>\n$28,000,022<\/td>\n2007<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n$4,666,670<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Greinke<\/td>\nZack<\/td>\n$147,000,000<\/td>\n$24,500,000<\/td>\n2013-2018<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sabathia<\/td>\nC.C.<\/td>\n$122,000,000<\/td>\n$24,400,000<\/td>\n2012-16<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n$1,626,667<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lee<\/td>\nCliff<\/td>\n$120,000,000<\/td>\n$24,000,000<\/td>\n2011-15<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n$2,086,957<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hamels<\/td>\nCole<\/td>\n$144,000,000<\/td>\n$24,000,000<\/td>\n2013-18<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sabathia<\/td>\nC.C.<\/td>\n$69,000,000<\/td>\n$23,000,000<\/td>\n2009-11<\/td>\n59<\/td>\n$1,169,492<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Santana<\/td>\nJohan<\/td>\n$137,500,000<\/td>\n$22,916,667<\/td>\n2008-13<\/td>\n46<\/td>\n$2,989,130<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cain<\/td>\nMatt<\/td>\n$127,500,000<\/td>\n$21,250,000<\/td>\n2012-17<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n$1,328,125<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lincecum<\/td>\nTim<\/td>\n$40,500,000<\/td>\n$20,250,000<\/td>\n2012-13<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n$2,025,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Halladay<\/td>\nRoy<\/td>\n$60,000,000<\/td>\n$20,000,000<\/td>\n2011-13<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n$1,333,333<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Darvish<\/td>\nYu<\/td>\n$111,700,000<\/td>\n$18,616,667<\/td>\n2012-18<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n$1,163,542<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zambrano<\/td>\nCarlos<\/td>\n$91,500,000<\/td>\n$18,300,000<\/td>\n2008-12<\/td>\n50<\/td>\n$1,830,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zito<\/td>\nBarry<\/td>\n$126,000,000<\/td>\n$18,000,000<\/td>\n2007-13<\/td>\n58<\/td>\n$1,862,069<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Clemens<\/td>\nRoger<\/td>\n$18,000,000<\/td>\n$18,000,000<\/td>\n2005<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n$1,384,615<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Peavy<\/td>\nJake<\/td>\n$52,000,000<\/td>\n$17,333,333<\/td>\n2010-12<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n$2,080,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Matsuzaka<\/td>\nDaisuke<\/td>\n$103,000,000<\/td>\n$17,166,667<\/td>\n2007-12<\/td>\n50<\/td>\n$2,060,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Beckett<\/td>\nJosh<\/td>\n$68,000,000<\/td>\n$17,000,000<\/td>\n2011-14<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n$1,700,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weaver<\/td>\nJered<\/td>\n$85,000,000<\/td>\n$17,000,000<\/td>\n2012-16<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n$850,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lackey<\/td>\nJohn<\/td>\n$82,500,000<\/td>\n$16,500,000<\/td>\n2010-14<\/td>\n26<\/td>\n$1,903,846<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Burnett<\/td>\nA.J.<\/td>\n$82,500,000<\/td>\n$16,500,000<\/td>\n2009-13<\/td>\n50<\/td>\n$1,320,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Verlander<\/td>\nJustin<\/td>\n$80,000,000<\/td>\n$16,000,000<\/td>\n2010-14<\/td>\n59<\/td>\n$813,559<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sanchez<\/td>\nAnibal<\/td>\n$80,000,000<\/td>\n$16,000,000<\/td>\n2013-17<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Schmidt<\/td>\nJason<\/td>\n$47,000,000<\/td>\n$15,666,667<\/td>\n2007-09<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n$15,666,667<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hernandez<\/td>\nFelix<\/td>\n$78,000,000<\/td>\n$15,600,000<\/td>\n2010-14<\/td>\n40<\/td>\n$1,170,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wilson<\/td>\nC.J.<\/td>\n$77,500,000<\/td>\n$15,500,000<\/td>\n2012-16<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n$1,192,308<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hampton<\/td>\nMike<\/td>\n$121,000,000<\/td>\n$15,125,000<\/td>\n2001-08<\/td>\n56<\/td>\n$2,160,714<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brown<\/td>\nKevin<\/td>\n$105,000,000<\/td>\n$15,000,000<\/td>\n1999-05<\/td>\n72<\/td>\n$1,458,333<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lowe<\/td>\nDerek<\/td>\n$60,000,000<\/td>\n$15,000,000<\/td>\n2009-12<\/td>\n49<\/td>\n$1,224,490<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hamels<\/td>\nCole<\/td>\n$15,000,000<\/td>\n$15,000,000<\/td>\n2012<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n$882,353<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kuroda<\/td>\nHiroki<\/td>\n$15,000,000<\/td>\n$15,000,000<\/td>\n2013<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mussina<\/td>\nMike<\/td>\n$88,500,000<\/td>\n$14,750,000<\/td>\n2001-06<\/td>\n92<\/td>\n$961,957<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oswalt<\/td>\nRoy<\/td>\n$73,000,000<\/td>\n$14,600,000<\/td>\n2007-11<\/td>\n61<\/td>\n$1,196,721<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Buehrle<\/td>\nMark<\/td>\n$58,000,000<\/td>\n$14,500,000<\/td>\n2012-15<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n$1,115,385<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Peavy<\/td>\nJake<\/td>\n$29,000,000<\/td>\n$14,500,000<\/td>\n2013-14<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Buehrle<\/td>\nMark<\/td>\n$56,000,000<\/td>\n$14,000,000<\/td>\n2008-11<\/td>\n54<\/td>\n$1,037,037<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Martinez<\/td>\nPedro<\/td>\n$54,000,000<\/td>\n$13,500,000<\/td>\n2005-08<\/td>\n32<\/td>\n$1,687,500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Halladay<\/td>\nRoy<\/td>\n$40,000,000<\/td>\n$13,333,333<\/td>\n2008-10<\/td>\n58<\/td>\n$689,655<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Martinez<\/td>\nPedro<\/td>\n$92,000,000<\/td>\n$13,142,857<\/td>\n1998-04<\/td>\n117<\/td>\n$786,325<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Danks<\/td>\nJon<\/td>\n65,000,000<\/td>\n$13,000,000<\/td>\n2012-15<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n$4,333,333<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Park<\/td>\nChan Ho<\/td>\n$65,000,000<\/td>\n$13,000,000<\/td>\n2002-06<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n$1,969,697<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dempster<\/td>\nRyan<\/td>\n$52,000,000<\/td>\n$13,000,000<\/td>\n2009-12<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n$1,083,333<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Haren<\/td>\nDan<\/td>\n$13,000,000<\/td>\n$13,000,000<\/td>\n2013<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jackson<\/td>\nEdwin<\/td>\n$52,000,000<\/td>\n$13,000,000<\/td>\n2013-16<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Colon<\/td>\nBartolo<\/td>\n$51,000,000<\/td>\n$12,750,000<\/td>\n2004-07<\/td>\n46<\/td>\n$1,108,696<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Carpenter<\/td>\nChris<\/td>\n$50,800,000<\/td>\n$12,700,000<\/td>\n2008-11<\/td>\n44<\/td>\n$1,154,545<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Arroyo<\/td>\nBronson<\/td>\n$25,000,000<\/td>\n$12,500,000<\/td>\n2009-10<\/td>\n32<\/td>\n$781,250<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dickey<\/td>\nR.A.<\/td>\n$25,000,000<\/td>\n$12,500,000<\/td>\n2013-14<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perez<\/td>\nOliver<\/td>\n36,000,000<\/td>\n$12,000,000<\/td>\n2009-11<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n$12,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Silva<\/td>\nCarlos<\/td>\n$48,000,000<\/td>\n$12,000,000<\/td>\n2008-12<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n$4,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Millwood<\/td>\nKevin<\/td>\n$60,000,000<\/td>\n$12,000,000<\/td>\n2006-10<\/td>\n52<\/td>\n$1,153,846<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kuroda<\/td>\nHiroki<\/td>\n$12,000,000<\/td>\n$12,000,000<\/td>\n2011<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n$923,077<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pettitte<\/td>\nAndy<\/td>\n$12,000,000<\/td>\n$12,000,000<\/td>\n2013<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Haren<\/td>\nDan<\/td>\n$47,750,000<\/td>\n$11,937,500<\/td>\n2009-12<\/td>\n54<\/td>\n$884,259<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kuroda<\/td>\nHiroki<\/td>\n$35,300,000<\/td>\n$11,766,667<\/td>\n2008-10<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n$1,260,714<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Arroyo<\/td>\nBronson<\/td>\n$35,000,000<\/td>\n$11,666,667<\/td>\n2011-13<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n$1,666,667<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lincecum<\/td>\nTim<\/td>\n$23,000,000<\/td>\n$11,500,000<\/td>\n2010-11<\/td>\n29<\/td>\n$793,103<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mussina<\/td>\nMike<\/td>\n$22,141,452<\/td>\n$11,070,726<\/td>\n2007-08<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n$714,240<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dreifort<\/td>\nDarren<\/td>\n$55,000,000<\/td>\n$11,000,000<\/td>\n2001-05<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n$6,111,111<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Meche<\/td>\nGil<\/td>\n$55,000,000<\/td>\n$11,000,000<\/td>\n2007-11<\/td>\n29<\/td>\n$1,896,552<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lilly<\/td>\nTed<\/td>\n$33,000,000<\/td>\n$11,000,000<\/td>\n2011-13<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n$1,294,118<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jackson<\/td>\nEdwin<\/td>\n$11,000,000<\/td>\n$11,000,000<\/td>\n2012<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n$1,100,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrison<\/td>\nMatt<\/td>\n$55,000,000<\/td>\n$11,000,000<\/td>\n2013-17<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Carpenter<\/td>\nChris<\/td>\n$21,000,000<\/td>\n$10,500,000<\/td>\n2012-13<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n(0 wins)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ryu<\/td>\nHyun-Jin<\/td>\n$61,700,000<\/td>\n$10,283,333<\/td>\n2013-18<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Neagle<\/td>\nDenny<\/td>\n$51,000,000<\/td>\n$10,200,000<\/td>\n2001-05<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n$2,684,211<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lilly<\/td>\nTed<\/td>\n$40,000,000<\/td>\n$10,000,000<\/td>\n2007-10<\/td>\n54<\/td>\n$740,741<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Darvish<\/td>\nYu<\/td>\n$60,000,000<\/td>\n$10,000,000<\/td>\n2012-18<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n$625,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kuroda<\/td>\nHiroki<\/td>\n$10,000,000<\/td>\n$10,000,000<\/td>\n2012<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n$625,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pavano<\/td>\nCarl<\/td>\n$39,950,000<\/td>\n$9,987,500<\/td>\n2005-08<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n$4,438,889<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wolf<\/td>\nRandy<\/td>\n$29,750,000<\/td>\n$9,916,667<\/td>\n2010-12<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n$959,677<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Johnson<\/td>\nJosh<\/td>\n$39,000,000<\/td>\n$9,750,000<\/td>\n2010-13<\/td>\n22<\/td>\n$1,329,545<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Greinke<\/td>\nZack<\/td>\n$38,000,000<\/td>\n$9,500,000<\/td>\n2009-12<\/td>\n67<\/td>\n$567,164<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Washburn<\/td>\nJarrod<\/td>\n$37,000,000<\/td>\n$9,250,000<\/td>\n2006-09<\/td>\n32<\/td>\n$1,156,250<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Igawa<\/td>\nKei<\/td>\n$46,000,000<\/td>\n$9,200,000<\/td>\n2007-11<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n$23,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cain<\/td>\nMatt<\/td>\n$27,250,000<\/td>\n$9,083,333<\/td>\n2010-12<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n$664,634<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lowe<\/td>\nDerek<\/td>\n$36,000,000<\/td>\n$9,000,000<\/td>\n2005-08<\/td>\n54<\/td>\n$666,667<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Matsuzaka<\/td>\nDaisuke<\/td>\n$52,000,000<\/td>\n$8,666,667<\/td>\n2007-12<\/td>\n50<\/td>\n$1,040,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Beckett<\/td>\nJosh<\/td>\n$42,000,000<\/td>\n$8,400,000<\/td>\n2007-10<\/td>\n55<\/td>\n$610,909<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gonzalez<\/td>\nGio<\/td>\n$42,000,000<\/td>\n$8,400,000<\/td>\n2012-16<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n$400,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Guthrie<\/td>\nJeremy<\/td>\n$25,000,000<\/td>\n$8,333,333<\/td>\n2013-16<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ortiz<\/td>\nRuss<\/td>\n$33,000,000<\/td>\n$8,250,000<\/td>\n2005-08<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n$4,714,286<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Schmidt<\/td>\nJason<\/td>\n$40,000,000<\/td>\n$8,000,000<\/td>\n2002-06<\/td>\n71<\/td>\n$563,380<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Buchholz<\/td>\nClay<\/td>\n$30,000,000<\/td>\n$7,500,000<\/td>\n2012-15<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n$681,818<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lester<\/td>\nJon<\/td>\n$43,000,000<\/td>\n$7,166,667<\/td>\n2009-14<\/td>\n58<\/td>\n$494,253<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hamels<\/td>\nCole<\/td>\n$20,500,000<\/td>\n$6,833,333<\/td>\n2009-11<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n$569,444<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wainwright<\/td>\nAdam<\/td>\n$36,000,000<\/td>\n$6,000,000<\/td>\n2008-13<\/td>\n64<\/td>\n$468,750<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ryu<\/td>\nHyun-Jin<\/td>\n$36,000,000<\/td>\n$6,000,000<\/td>\n2013-18<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Webb<\/td>\nBrandon<\/td>\n$28,000,000<\/td>\n$5,600,000<\/td>\n2006-10<\/td>\n56<\/td>\n$500,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lee<\/td>\nCliff<\/td>\n$23,000,000<\/td>\n$4,600,000<\/td>\n2006-10<\/td>\n67<\/td>\n$343,284<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Igawa<\/td>\nKei<\/td>\n$20,000,000<\/td>\n$4,000,000<\/td>\n2007-11<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n$10,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jimenez<\/td>\nUbaldo<\/td>\n$23,750,000<\/td>\n$3,958,333<\/td>\n2009-14<\/td>\n53<\/td>\n$298,742<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jimenez<\/td>\nUbaldo<\/td>\n$10,000,000<\/td>\n$2,500,000<\/td>\n2009-12<\/td>\n53<\/td>\n$188,679<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Price<\/td>\nDavid<\/td>\n$9,750,000<\/td>\n$1,950,000<\/td>\n2007-11<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n$237,805<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Buchholz<\/td>\nClay<\/td>\n$555,000<\/td>\n$555,000<\/td>\n2011<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n$92,500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Buchholz<\/td>\nClay<\/td>\n$443,000<\/td>\n$443,000<\/td>\n2010<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n$26,059<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Here’s some interesting facts, that come out of this analysis (some of these points can also be seen at the amazing\u00a0Cots Salary database<\/a>, now at Baseball Prospectus, and are confirmed in my spreadsheet tracking the same):<\/p>\n