{"id":7411,"date":"2013-10-16T09:37:03","date_gmt":"2013-10-16T13:37:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com.\/?p=7411"},"modified":"2013-10-16T09:37:03","modified_gmt":"2013-10-16T13:37:03","slug":"nationals-2013-post-mortem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7411","title":{"rendered":"Nationals 2013 post-mortem"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"This<\/a>

This may be the last time I use Haren’s picture in a Nats uniform on this blog. Photo via Zimbio.com<\/p><\/div>\n

They say success has many fathers but failure is an orphan. \u00a0Well, here’s a whole slew of orphan-causing problems that befell this team this year. \u00a0I started this post months ago, when the team sputtered in July and suddenly sat at 54-60. \u00a0None of these bullet points are surprises. \u00a0Maybe I forgot some key points; feel free to tack ’em on. \u00a0 This is a cathartic, washing my hands of the 2013 season, where so many things conspired to go wrongly.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Davey Johnson<\/strong><\/span>, for continued pitching\/bullpen mismanagement episode after episode, for seemingly losing the clubhouse (see below), for sticking with severely under-performing players (Espinosa, Haren especially) far, far too long, for failing to react to repeated beanings of his best player, and for generally looking old, tired and out-matched this year at press conference after press conference. \u00a0This team needs a new voice, a disciplinarian who will command more respect than what Johnson was commanding from this team. \u00a0My vote is\u00a0for\u00a0Matt Williams<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
  2. Injuries<\/strong><\/span>. \u00a0Every team has injuries; I’m not going to write some simplistic statement that says “well if we had So-and-So healthy all year we’d have won the division.” \u00a0 Look at St. Louis: they’re missing Chris Carpenter<\/strong> and\u00a0Jaime Garcia<\/strong> basically all year and still won the best division in the game. \u00a0I think the issue most people will have with the Nats is the way their players’ injuries were handled. \u00a0Bryce Harper<\/strong> missed the whole month of June after several wall collisions finally caught up to him and he was clearly in pain the rest of the season. \u00a0Did the team not allow him to get healthy at the end of April? \u00a0Meanwhile you have to take serious issue with either the team,\u00a0Danny Espinosa<\/strong> or both over the handling of his injuries. \u00a0What good did it do anyone to allow Espinosa to try to play through the significant shoulder injury he apparently has? \u00a0Why has he STILL not had the surgery done to fix it? \u00a0It sounds to me like there’s some serious stubbornness on both sides of this fence. \u00a0Ross Detwiler<\/strong> looked to be on the verge of a breakout season in 2012 … and now he’s back to being the broken down starter he’s mostly been during his time here. \u00a0In his 6 pro seasons he’s not pitched full seasons in 3 of them. \u00a0 This isn’t necessarily on the team .. but I will ask this: at what point do you go into a season counting on Detwiler to break down instead of the reverse? \u00a0It goes to proper roster planning (also mentioned later on).<\/li>\n
  3. Bench production<\/strong><\/span>, for regressing so far past the mean from last year’s over production. \u00a0Did you know that\u00a0Steve Lombardozzi<\/strong> got more than 300 plate appearances this year with this slash line: .255\/.276\/.337? \u00a0I know you need backup utility infielders, but man, that’s a huge 68 OPS+ hole getting a ton of ABs. \u00a0Our opening-day bench of Lombardozzi\/Moore\/Bernadina\/Tracy posted these OPS+ figures in 2012: 82\/123\/111\/111. \u00a0In 2013? \u00a069\/66\/43\/55. \u00a0Wow. \u00a0That’s just a startling drop-off in production. \u00a0To add insult to injury\u00a0Kurt Suzuki<\/strong>‘s OPS+ went from a respectable 95 last year to 64 this year. \u00a0Basically every pinch hitting spot or guy off the bench covering for a starter turned into an 0-4 outing. \u00a0We know that at least 3 of these 5 bench guys are gone; who will replace them?<\/li>\n
  4. Dan Haren<\/strong><\/span>. \u00a0$13M for one of the worst starters in the game, even given his little August rebound. \u00a0The team finished 4 games out of the wild card, 10 games back of Atlanta.\u00a0\u00a0 In Dan Haren’s 30 starts, the Nats went 11-19.\u00a0 In every other pitcher’s starts, the team went 75-57.\u00a0\u00a0 That’s a .568 winning percentage, which equates to 92 wins. \u00a0Even a #5 starter who gave the team a 50\/50 chance of winning on any given sunday would have basically put the team into the WC game. \u00a0Haren was just a really really poor FA acquisition who contributed a huge part to the downfall of the team. \u00a0I wonder at this point if the Nats didn’t fail to do the proper medical due diligence on Haren; there was a reason the proposed trade<\/a> to the Cubs fell through and there was a reason the Angels did not give him a qualifying offer. \u00a0I fully admit: I was completely on board<\/a> with the signing, thinking we were getting the pre 2012 Haren. \u00a0Wrong; something clearly changed for him after the 2011 season and I wonder how much longer he can stay in the league after his last two seasons. \u00a0I’m sure he’ll get another one-year deal for 2014 based on his stronger finish, but another 5+ ERA season may finish him.<\/li>\n
  5. Offense in general<\/strong><\/span>: The team scored 656 runs on the year. \u00a0That’s down fully 75 runs from last year, when they were 10th in the league in scoring. \u00a0Had they produced like they did last year in 2013 (about 10th in the league in runs scored and other key indicators), \u00a0they’d have scored around 700 runs, probably good for at least 10 more wins (under the rough estimate that it takes about 4 “extra” runs per win). \u00a0With 10 more wins … they’re winning the division again (since some of those added wins come at the hands of Atlanta).<\/li>\n
  6. Hitting in the Clutch<\/strong><\/span>:\u00a0Ask any sabre-nerd and they\u2019ll tell you that \u201cclutch\u201d doesn\u2019t exist and that all aspects of batting (good or bad) with RISP is merely coincidence (this came up again recently with David Ortiz’<\/strong> game-changing NLCS homer). \u00a0I don\u2019t entirely buy it. I think hitting with runners on base is a skill that can be practiced and honed. \u00a0I think there\u2019s importance to driving runners in when you have the opportunity. \u00a0I think a batter with a runner on third and less than one out can absolutely look for a ball that he can hit into the air, thus driving in the run. \u00a0Anyway: let’s look at how well the Nats offense hit in the clutch this season (see this team-stats split link at\u00a0tFangraphs<\/a>). \u00a0The Nats team batting average with runners on base is ranked 19th in the league; its wRC+ as a team 17th. \u00a0However, change \u201crunners on base\u201d to \u201chigh leverage\u201d in the Fangraphs split and you get this: Nats were 29th in high leverage batting average, 28th in wRC+. That\u2019s right: almost dead last in the league in high-leverage hitting for the year. \u00a0When they came to bat in situations that mattered, they were one of the worst teams in the league. \u00a0Any way you slice it … that’s not “clutch.”<\/li>\n
  7. Clubhouse Issues<\/strong><\/span>: I know that many readers here get irritated with presumptions of “chemistry” issues, writing comments about how we have no idea what really goes on in the clubhouse. \u00a0Fair enough; we don’t need to rehash the argument. \u00a0Absent any proof, I believe something might have been amiss. \u00a0Reporters have noted the losses of free-spirit Morse<\/strong> and the level headed DeRosa<\/strong>. \u00a0The Soriano<\/strong> acquisition brought a known surly loner with behavior problems into a tight knit bullpen and resulted in the chain reaction demotion of two guys (Storen<\/strong> and Clippard<\/strong>) who didn’t necessarily deserve to be demoted. \u00a0I believe Harper<\/strong> was fed up with Johnson’s message and was caught on camera more than once clearly ignoring or showing disdain to something he was being told. \u00a0To say nothing of the ridiculousness of Harper getting hit over and over without any of his teammates getting his back. \u00a0\u00a0Can a new manager fix this? \u00a0Probably. \u00a0Can a leadership void fix this? \u00a0Definitely. \u00a0Perhaps with\u00a0Jayson Werth<\/strong>‘s great season he can step up in the clubhouse and be the voice of reason moreso than it seems he has been before (either because he was struggling on the field or collapsing under the weight of his contract).<\/li>\n
  8. Rizzo’s mis-management of the 2013 roster<\/span><\/strong>: Rizzo just had to have his speedy leadoff\/centerfielder, and Span underperformed when it counted (I’m on record stating over and over that the team is wasting Harper’s defensive capabilities in left and blocking a power-hitter acquisition by sticking with Span in center. \u00a0But what’s done is done). \u00a0The opening day roster had no left handed specialists, a move that I quasi-defended at the time but which turned out to be disastrous. \u00a0We relied on a MLFA (and frankly, we over-relied an incredibly short sample size) for the long man (Duke) and he failed. We had absolutely no starting pitching depth in the high Minors and got rather lucky that Taylor Jordan<\/strong> materialized out of the thin air of high-A and Tanner Roark<\/strong> suddenly added 5 mph to his fastball and turned into an effective MLB hurler.\u00a0\u00a0We had a $120M payroll but were depending on bargain basement acquisitions in key roles. \u00a0That just has to change for 2014. \u00a0Don’t go looking to save pennies on the proverbial dollar by non-tendering useful guys (as they did with\u00a0Tom Gorzelanny<\/strong> last year); do the right thing and lock these guys up. \u00a0You had enough to waste $30M on Soriano but couldn’t find the scratch to keep around half of 2012’s bullpen?<\/li>\n
  9. Pressure<\/strong><\/span>. this team had no pressure last year, and all of the pressure this year. \u00a0Nearly every baseball pundit with a blog, microphone or column picked them to win the division (me included), and lots picked them to win 100+ games (me included). \u00a0Look at how awfully they fared this year against the NL playoff bound teams:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
    \n