{"id":8726,"date":"2014-05-07T10:20:45","date_gmt":"2014-05-07T14:20:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8726"},"modified":"2014-05-07T10:20:45","modified_gmt":"2014-05-07T14:20:45","slug":"nats-major-minor-league-pitching-staffs-vs-predicted-2014-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8726","title":{"rendered":"Nats Major &#038; Minor League Pitching Staffs vs Predicted 2014 edition"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>At the end of the 2013 season, I put out a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8320\">slew of season rotational reviews<\/a> and then <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8215\">predicted where everyone would start in 2014<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;re a month into the minor league full-seasons and the rotations are already mostly established (with D\/L trips and slight movement as noted here). \u00a0So lets do a little navel gazing and take a look at my predictions versus the actuals before we lose too much identity with the makeup of these four full-season pitching staffs from opening day.<\/p>\n<p>As always,\u00a0<strong>Luke Erickson<\/strong>\u00a0and nationalsprospects.com,\u00a0the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdHExYldZVUZJZk9uckFjeEVCSmR5Umc&amp;hl=en#gid=26\">Nats Big Board<\/a>\u00a0and the tireless work by &#8220;SpringfieldFan&#8221; is much appreciated here.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>MLB Dec 2013 Prediction<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>MLB Rotation:\u00a0Strasburg, Gonzalez\u00a0(L),\u00a0Zimmermann, Fister, Detwiler\u00a0(L)<\/li>\n<li>MLB Bullpen:\u00a0Soriano, Storen, Clippard, Stammen, Blevens\u00a0(L),\u00a0Ohlendorf, Roark<\/li>\n<li>MLB out of Org:\u00a0Haren, Duke\u00a0(L),\u00a0Abad\u00a0(L),\u00a0Krol\u00a0(L),\u00a0HRodriguez<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>MLB April 2014 Actual Opening Day Staff<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>MLB Rotation:\u00a0Strasburg,\u00a0Gonzalez (L),\u00a0Zimmermann,\u00a0Roark, Jordan<\/li>\n<li>MLB Bullpen: Soriano, Clippard, Storen, Stammen, Blevens (L), Detwiler, Barrett<\/li>\n<li>MLB D\/L: Fister, Ohlendorf, Davis<\/li>\n<li>MLB notables Out of Organization:\u00a0Haren, Duke\u00a0(L),\u00a0Abad\u00a0(L),\u00a0Krol\u00a0(L),\u00a0HRodriguez<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>MLB Discussion<\/strong><\/span>: A late spring injury to <strong>Doug Fister<\/strong> obsoleted the 5th starter competition, giving both <strong>Tanner Roark<\/strong> and <strong>Taylor Jordan<\/strong> spots (for now; Roark has &#8220;won&#8221; the 5th spot thanks to a better April now that Fister is ready to come back). \u00a0The biggest news during spring training was the <strong>Ross Detwiler<\/strong> &#8220;demotion&#8221; to the bullpen, but the <strong>Aaron Barrett<\/strong> victory over the likes of <strong>Christian Garcia<\/strong> and <strong>Ryan Mattheus<\/strong> was also notable. \u00a0Injuries to <strong>Ross Ohlendorf<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Erik Davis<\/strong> cleared out bullpen competition, and an early spring training chest injury to Mattheus also made it difficult for him to break camp with the big league club.<\/p>\n<p>Nothing new here: we&#8217;ve talked this to death already \ud83d\ude42 \u00a0Lets move onto the four full-season minor league squads.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>AAA Dec 2013 Prediction<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AAA Rotation:\u00a0Rosenbaum\u00a0(L),\u00a0Jordan, Karns, Young, MLFA or two<\/li>\n<li>AAA Bullpen:\u00a0Barrett,\u00a0Mattheus, Garcia, Davis, Cedeno\u00a0(L),\u00a0Robertson\u00a0(L), Delcarmen,\u00a0Alfaro, Stange, Herron\u00a0(AA?)<\/li>\n<li>AAA Release candidates:\u00a0Meyers,\u00a0Lehman<\/li>\n<li>AAA out of Org:\u00a0Maya, Tatusko, Clay, Mandel, Torra, Broadway, Crotta, Lowe, Kimball, Accardo, Bramhall, Romero\u00a0(L)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>AAA Apr 2014 Actual opening day<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AAA Rotation: Rosenbaum (L), Tatusko, Treinen, Hill, Poveda<\/li>\n<li>AAA Bullpen: Mattheus,\u00a0Garcia, Cedeno (L),\u00a0Robertson (L), Delcarmen, Madrigal, \u00a0Roenicke, Stange<\/li>\n<li>AAA D\/L: Meyers, Davis (mlb 60 day d\/l)<\/li>\n<li>AAA cut\/released\/FA:Young, Broadway, Maya, Mandel, Clay, Kimball, Crotta, Torra, Lowe,\u00a0Crotta, \u00a0Accardo, Bramhall, Romero\u00a0(L)<\/li>\n<li>AAA Missing: MGonzalez (L), Laffey<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>AAA Discussion<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Technically I got 2\/5ths of the AAA rotation right to start the year: <strong>Rosenbaum<\/strong> and a MLFA in the form of <strong>Omar Poveda<\/strong> (technically an acquisition but still&#8230;). \u00a0<strong>Karns<\/strong> was traded to obtain our (now) starting catcher\u00a0<strong>Jose Lobaton<\/strong>. \u00a0<strong>Jordan<\/strong> of course started the year in the majors, but I think he&#8217;ll end up back here for a good portion of the season. \u00a0<strong>Young<\/strong> was granted his release and immediately signed in Seattle to fill one of their rotation spots. \u00a0The team resigned its own MLFA in\u00a0<strong>Ryan Tatusko<\/strong> to return and he seems set to be in the rotation for now, but he&#8217;s more of a swing-man\/org arm and he likely makes way for a starter when needed. \u00a0The big surprise is the unexpected promotion of\u00a0<strong>Taylor Hill<\/strong>; he featured in AA but I thought he&#8217;d start out there. \u00a0 <strong>Brad Meyers<\/strong> stays in the organization but is &#8220;missing&#8221; for the time being: he may be headed for the D\/L but as of this writing has no assignment.<\/p>\n<p>In the month since opening day, we&#8217;ve seen both\u00a0<strong>Mike Gonzalez<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Aaron Laffey<\/strong> make their way to Syracuse to cover for the subsequently injured Rosenbaum and promoted MLB-bullpen-covering reliever of the day (<strong>Cedeno, Treinen, Barrett<\/strong> and <strong>Mattheus<\/strong> have all already spent time on the shuttle between Washington and Syracuse).<\/p>\n<p>In the bullpen; our prediction looks decently correct; 6 of the 8 Syracuse opening day members were called. \u00a0The outliers: MLFA signings\u00a0<strong>Warner Madrigal<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>Josh Roenicke<\/strong>. \u00a0 Predicted members\u00a0<strong>Erik Davis<\/strong> instead sits on the mlb 60-day D\/L, and Alfaro is in the AA squad. \u00a0\u00a0<strong>Pat Lehman<\/strong> sits on the AA D\/L for now.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>AAA &#8220;Star Power&#8221; summary<\/strong><\/span>: So, as has become typical AAA isn&#8217;t so much about finishing off prospects as it is about holding spare parts. \u00a0In the rotation we had zero 40-man roster players at this point, and really just\u00a0<strong>Blake Treinen<\/strong> features as a potential up-and-comer (with possible future apologies to Taylor Hill of course &#8230;). \u00a0The bullpen has just three 40-man roster arms (a loogy in\u00a0<strong>Xavier Cedeno<\/strong>, and two injury reclamation projects in\u00a0<strong>Christian Garcia<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Ryan Mattheus<\/strong>). \u00a0 Eventually we should see some culling of this roster when the team needs to find spots for Gonzalez and Laffey in particular. \u00a0Syracuse fans may not be getting the best pitching staff out there to cheer on. \u00a0<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>AA Dec 2013 Prediction<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AA Rotation: Cole, Hill, Solis (L),\u00a0Schwartz, Treinen (AAA?)<\/li>\n<li>AA Swingmen:\u00a0Gilliam (swingman)<\/li>\n<li>AA Bullpen: Benincasa, Mirowski,\u00a0Holland,\u00a0\u00a0Swynenberg, Grace (L), Bates, KPerez, Spann (L)<\/li>\n<li>AA release candidates: Perry, Selik,\u00a0Demny,\u00a0RMartin<\/li>\n<li>AA out of Org: Broderick, Ray, McCoy, Frias, Holder, Bray<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>AA Apr 2014 Actual<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AA Rotation: Cole, Schwartz, Rivero (L), Gilliam, Purke (L)<\/li>\n<li>AA spot starts\/swingman: Dupra<\/li>\n<li>AA bullpen: Herron, Holland, Grace (L), Mirowski, Alfaro, Bates, Espino<\/li>\n<li>AA dl: Demny, RMartin, Solis (L), Lehman, Perry<\/li>\n<li>AA cut\/released\/FAs: Broderick, Ray (traded), Bray (L), McCoy (L), Karns (traded), Frias, Holder, Selik, Swynenberg (ret)<\/li>\n<li>AA missing: KPerez<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>AA Discussion<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>We got some of the rotation correct; <strong>A.J. Cole<\/strong> and <strong>Blake Schwartz<\/strong>. \u00a0We technically got Hill and Treinen correct &#8230; just under-valued where the organization would put them. \u00a0 And lastly\u00a0<strong>Sammy Solis<\/strong> would be in this group had he not suffered a late-spring back injury; for the time being he&#8217;s in XST but is on the &#8220;missing&#8221; list here. \u00a0I had\u00a0<strong>Rob Gilliam<\/strong> as the AA swing man anyway; he would likely make way for Solis once he comes back. \u00a0The two additional names are\u00a0<strong>Matthew Purke<\/strong> (who surprisingly to me starts the year in AA) and newly acquired\u00a0<strong>Felipe Rivero. \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We got most of the bullpen right: 5 of 8 predicted. \u00a0The outliers:\u00a0<strong>Ryan Perry<\/strong> remains in the organization but sits on the D\/L; personally I thought he may get released. \u00a0<strong>Gabriel Alfaro<\/strong> was a MLFA who slots into the bullpen, as was\u00a0<strong>Zach Jackson<\/strong> (who should have been in AAA to begin with and has already been promoted).\u00a0 <strong>Benincasa<\/strong> starts in high-A again and Gilliam is pushed into the rotation. \u00a0 Recent acquisition KPerez remain missing, along with several other middle relief arms. \u00a0Spann started the year two levels lower than I thought he should have in Low-A but currently sits in Potomac.<\/p>\n<p>A couple of long-serving names are now out of the organization; I was surprised to see\u00a0<strong>Cameron Selik<\/strong> in particular being released; I always liked him for some reason. \u00a0Its tough being a middle relief RHP with so many of them getting drafted year after year.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>AA Star Power summary<\/strong><\/span>: A few very important names to the organization sit in AA:\u00a0top pitching prospect A.J. Cole sits here and will be looking to push for a AAA promotion. \u00a0Sammy Solis had rumblings of being turned into a Loogy in Spring Training; now he just needs to get healthy. \u00a0Matthew Purke&#8217;s destiny remains at a cross-roads thanks to a horrible start to his 2014 AA campaign. \u00a0And newly acquired\/40-man member Felipe Rivero sits here, hoping to show as a decent bounty for the\u00a0<strong>Nathan Karns<\/strong> trade. \u00a0These three guys all sit on the Nats fast-depleting 40-man roster &#8230; and they represent 33% of ALL the 40-man rostered players in the Eastern League.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>High-A Dec 2013\u00a0\u00a0Prediction<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>High-A rotation: Purke (L), Anderson, Mooneyham (L), Encarnacion, Bacus,\u00a0Turnbull (bullpen?) (L)<\/li>\n<li>High-A swingmen:\u00a0RPena (swingman), Dickson (swingman)<\/li>\n<li>High-A bullpen: Wort (AA?), Holt (AA?), Fischer, Henke, Mendez, Harper (L), Davis, Thomas (L)<\/li>\n<li>High-A release candidates: Dupra, Rauh (starter?), Meza (L)<\/li>\n<li>High-A out of org: Pineyro, Hawkins<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>High-A Apr 2014 Actuals<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>High-A Rotation: Rauh, Rpena, Mooneyham (L), Encarnacion, Lee<\/li>\n<li>High-A\u00a0spot starts\/swingman: Dickson, Simms, Spann (L)<\/li>\n<li>High-A\u00a0bullpen: Benincasa, Henke, Harper (L), Mendez, Self,<\/li>\n<li>High-A\u00a0cut\/released\/FA: Smoker (L), Broderick, Ray (traded), Holt, Wort, Applebee (ret)<\/li>\n<li>High-A\u00a0missing: Fischer<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>High-A Discussion<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>I thought the team would start Purke in high-A again; instead he is struggling in AA. \u00a0I thought\u00a0<strong>Dixon Anderson<\/strong> was old enough to merit the move to high-A; instead he still sits in Hagerstown repeating the level. \u00a0And <strong>Kyle Turnbull<\/strong> remains on the low-A D\/L for now. \u00a0Otherwise the High-A rotation prediction looks pretty good: we hit on Mooneyham and Encarnacion, we hit on RPena and Dickson and Bacus as swingmen or starters (they all now sit in those roles in some capacity or another thanks to injuries).<\/p>\n<p>The bullpen predictions are all over the place; both <strong>Wort<\/strong> and <strong>Holt<\/strong> were released, not pushed higher. \u00a0<strong>Fischer<\/strong> remains missing. \u00a0<strong>Benincasa<\/strong> is lower than I thought he&#8217;d be. \u00a0 <strong>Dupra<\/strong> and <strong>Rauh<\/strong> (who I thought were in jeopardy of getting cut) not only have kept their spots but have been pushing for promotion, which is great to see. \u00a0It does go to show that its kind of difficult to do these predictions the lower you go.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>High-A Star Power summary<\/strong><\/span>: Honestly there&#8217;s not a ton of big-time prospect names on the High-A staff. \u00a0Mooneyham was a high draft pick but has more or less struggled thus far in his pro career. \u00a0Encarnacion could be an up-and-comer in an organization that has struggled to develop its DSL graduate talent lately. \u00a0Otherwise the Potomac staff is filled with mid- to late-round college draft arms, older for the level at this point, and likely playing for their careers this year thanks to the higher-end talent sitting in the Hagerstown rotation right now (read further).<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Low-A Dec 2013\u00a0\u00a0Prediction<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Low-A rotation: Giolito, Johansen, Voth, Lee (high-A?) (L), Orlan (L)<\/li>\n<li>Low-A swingmen:\u00a0Suero (swingman),\u00a0Selsor (swingman),<\/li>\n<li>Low-A bullpen: Self (high-A?), Ullmann, Pivetta, Simms, Hollins, Napoli (L), Bafidis (L), Valdez, Walsh (L), Aries<\/li>\n<li>Low-A release candidates: Joyce, Waterman, Boyden<\/li>\n<li>Low-A out of org: McKenzie, Smith<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Low-A Apr 2014 Actuals<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Low A Rotation: \u00a0Giolito,\u00a0\u00a0Johansen, Voth,\u00a0Pivetta, Anderson,<\/li>\n<li>Low A\u00a0spot starts\/swingman: Suero, Anderson,<\/li>\n<li>Low A\u00a0bullpen: JThomas (L), Walsh (L), Cooper, Hollins, Ullmann, Silvestre (L), Sylvestri, Simms, Spann<\/li>\n<li>Low A\u00a0dl: Turnbull, CDavis, Estevez,<\/li>\n<li>Low A\u00a0cut\/released\/FA: Meza (L), Pineyro (traded), Selsor,\u00a0\u00a0Boyden,\u00a0Waterman, Aries<\/li>\n<li>Low A missing: Orlan, Napoli, Bafidis, Aries, Joyce, Valdez<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Discussion<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The big three starters in Hagerstown were easily predicted (<strong>Giolito, Johansen<\/strong> and <strong>Voth<\/strong>). \u00a0 <strong>Lee<\/strong>\u00a0and <strong>Anderson<\/strong>\u00a0switched places in my predictions (both starters, wrong teams) and <strong>Orlan<\/strong> is stuck in XST. \u00a0 Pivetta was pushed to the rotation after pitching in relief last year. \u00a0 And then a slew of the Hagerstown arms are participating in a &#8220;dual starter&#8221; system where by the starters generally have been going 5 and the relievers\/spot starters going the other 4 each night. \u00a0So the team is getting lots of looks at these pitchers on an extended basis.<\/p>\n<p>This system means there&#8217;s really not a &#8220;bullpen&#8221; being developed in Low-A, which is just as well; I&#8217;d rather have 8-10 starter candidates to choose from for higher levels than just 4-5 with guys already being pushed to being short-inning relievers in Low-A.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, we see that a slew of guys have already been cut here who appeared on last year&#8217;s rosters. \u00a0And, there&#8217;s a ton more players currently sitting in XST waiting to compete with June 2014 draft picks in the short-season squads. \u00a0Lots of churn here.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Low-A Star Power summary<\/strong><\/span>: look no further than the big three starters: they represent 1st, 2nd and 5th round draft picks. \u00a0Throw in <strong>Pivetta<\/strong> (a 4th rounder) and the team has a ton of vested interest in this rotation.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Phew; that&#8217;s a lot of players. I can&#8217;t wait to see how the staffs work out this year. \u00a0I don&#8217;t expect much in the way of commenting on this post; it was one of those drafts sitting in my admin screen that I thought i&#8217;d finish off and publish to get it out of the way \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At the end of the 2013 season, I put out a slew of season rotational reviews and then predicted where everyone would start in 2014. We&#8217;re a month into the minor league full-seasons and the rotations are already mostly established (with D\/L trips and slight movement as noted here). \u00a0So lets do a little navel [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,4],"tags":[916,2401,17,1815,1280,1693,72,195,921,20,349,103,851,934,923,241,61,2237,925,1812,2239,2289,919,852,850,166,849,196,1873,1965,2400,63,1872,67,940,1290,51,1554,86,543,73,1248,77,197,24,2288,1786,2402],"class_list":["post-8726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-minorspitching","tag-aaron-barrett","tag-aaron-laffey","tag-aj-cole","tag-austin-voth","tag-blake-schwartz","tag-blake-treinen","tag-brad-meyers","tag-brian-dupra","tag-brian-rauh","tag-cameron-selik","tag-chris-young","tag-christian-garcia","tag-danny-rosenbaum","tag-david-fischer","tag-dixon-anderson","tag-doug-fister","tag-erik-davis","tag-felipe-rivero","tag-gregory-holt","tag-jake-johansen","tag-jose-lobaton","tag-josh-roenicke","tag-kyle-turnbull","tag-lucas-giolito","tag-luke-erickson","tag-matthew-purke","tag-mike-gonzalez","tag-nathan-karns","tag-nick-lee","tag-nick-pivetta","tag-omar-poveda","tag-pat-lehman","tag-rob-gilliam","tag-rob-wort","tag-robert-benincasa","tag-robert-orlan","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-ross-ohlendorf","tag-ryan-mattheus","tag-ryan-perry","tag-ryan-tatusko","tag-springfieldfan","tag-tanner-roark","tag-taylor-hill","tag-taylor-jordan","tag-warner-madrigal","tag-xavier-cedeno","tag-zach-jackson"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8726","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8726"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8726\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8895,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8726\/revisions\/8895"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8726"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8726"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8726"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}