{"id":997,"date":"2011-04-11T11:00:51","date_gmt":"2011-04-11T15:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=997"},"modified":"2011-04-29T15:42:40","modified_gmt":"2011-04-29T19:42:40","slug":"nats-rotation-cycle-2-goodbadinconclusive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=997","title":{"rendered":"Nats Rotation Cycle #2: good\/bad\/inconclusive"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_1047\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/marquis-jason-nationalsjpg-0752f50362f1342c_large2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1047\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1047\" title=\"marquis-jason-nationalsjpg-0752f50362f1342c_large\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/marquis-jason-nationalsjpg-0752f50362f1342c_large2-300x229.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"229\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/marquis-jason-nationalsjpg-0752f50362f1342c_large2-300x229.jpg 300w, https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/marquis-jason-nationalsjpg-0752f50362f1342c_large2.jpg 432w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1047\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Marquis puts in his 2nd good outing in a row<\/p><\/div>\n<p>We&#8217;re two turns through the rotation now and the team sits at 4-5.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s some rundowns on how the pitching is trending.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Good<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Half the Bullpen.\u00a0 2010 holdovers <strong>Clippard<\/strong>, <strong>Storen<\/strong>, and <strong>Burnett<\/strong> are pitching lights out to open the season.\u00a0 Now if only the Nats still had the other half of the 2010 bullpen still here&#8230; (see the &#8220;bad&#8221; section).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong>&#8216;s 2nd start on 4\/8 (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/nationals-journal\/post\/game_7_discussion_thread_nationals_at_mets\/2011\/04\/08\/AFxhsB3C_blog.html?wprss=nationals-journal\">blog<\/a>\/<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_08_wasmlb_nynmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">gamer\/box<\/a>) went decently.\u00a0 5 1\/3, 6 hits, 2 runs 0 walks and 4 ks.\u00a0 He left the game with the lead and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.masnsports.com\/the_goessling_game\/2011\/04\/jordan-zimmermann-dealing-early-nationals-lead-mets.html\">Goessling notes<\/a> that he looked sharp early (the 4Ks were in the first two innings).\u00a0 He  got yanked in the 6th on 99 pitches all in all, in favor of Slaten to  do a lefty-lefty matchup.\u00a0 Some commenters note the early hook as  over-managing perhaps; I don&#8217;t have that big a problem with early hooks  early in the season, especially for someone on a known innings limit for  the season.\u00a0 Remember, we have a bullpen full of guys who need work and  havn&#8217;t thrown in a few days (Gaudin, Slaten and Broderick in  particular).\u00a0 Zimmermann&#8217;s control was good (68 of 99 for strikes) and  his fastball was strong (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.brooksbaseball.net\/pfxVB\/pfx.php?month=4&amp;day=8&amp;year=2011&amp;game=gid_2011_04_08_wasmlb_nynmlb_1%2F&amp;pitchSel=519455&amp;prevGame=gid_2011_04_08_wasmlb_nynmlb_1%2F&amp;prevDate=48\">avg of 92, max 94.8<\/a>).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jason Marquis<\/strong>.\u00a0 I&#8217;m writing this at the end of the 6th of his 4\/10 start (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_10_wasmlb_nynmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">gamer\/box<\/a>) assuming that Marquis is coming out of the game.\u00a0 His line: 6ip, 7hits, 2 BBs, 9ks and 3 earned runs.\u00a0 Without context, this line looks mediocre.\u00a0 However, by watching the game you get a different feel.\u00a0 3 of those 7 hits were infield hits, another a broken bat RBI single.\u00a0 Only two halfway-decently hit balls all day (one was a really nice piece of hitting by David Wright to knock in the first run).\u00a0 Marquis seemed to work around difficulties with his fastball all day, and got 9Ks by virtue of some great off speed stuff.\u00a0 Of the three runs scored, one was only in scoring position thanks to a passed ball on a 3rd strike.\u00a0 The umpires blatantly missed three pretty obvious calls in the field, extending Marquis&#8217; outing.\u00a0 He was in position for the loss (since Chris Wright is pitching a one-hitter through 7 innings despite a fastball that is only in the 85-86mph range) until the Nats got to <strong>Carrasco<\/strong> in the 8th to tie the game.\u00a0 I&#8217;d rate his outing as a success and something to build on.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Bad<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Livan Hernandez<\/strong>&#8216;s 4\/6\/11 start (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.csnwashington.com\/04\/06\/11\/Nationals-drop-third-straight\/landing_nationals_loud3r.html?blockID=498859&amp;feedID=6358\">gamer<\/a>\/box) was not nearly as good as his opening day start.\u00a0 He labored in Florida, taking nearly 100 pitches to get through 5 innings.\u00a0 6 hits, 5 walks and 4 runs.\u00a0 He really struggled in the first inning, only throwing 8 of 24 pitches for strikes.\u00a0 He blew the 4-run lead his team had staked him and the bullpen did the rest.\u00a0 I wonder if this is the year that Livan finally gets yanked out of the rotation (he basically hasn&#8217;t <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/h\/hernali01.shtml\">missed a start<\/a> in his career, despite a fastball that&#8217;s only <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brooksbaseball.net\/pfxVB\/pfx.php?month=4&amp;day=6&amp;year=2011&amp;game=gid_2011_04_06_wasmlb_flomlb_1%2F&amp;pitchSel=115817&amp;prevGame=gid_2011_04_06_wasmlb_flomlb_1%2F&amp;prevDate=46\">averaging 83-84mph<\/a>).<\/li>\n<li>The other Half of the bullpen: <strong>Gaudin <\/strong>and <strong>Coffey<\/strong> continue to be very poor replacements for last year&#8217;s highly effective duo of <strong>Bautista<\/strong> and <strong>Peralta<\/strong>.\u00a0 An offensively-challenged team like the Nats needs to keep every lead it  gets; this is one of the main reasons we lost 100+ games two years  running.\u00a0 Last year we had a good bullpen thing going, but management  failed to keep two of the key members and rolled the dice with two new  guys plus a rule5 acquisition.\u00a0 I see this experiment going badly, soon.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brian Broderick<\/strong>: the whole Broderick situation is looking worse and worse.\u00a0 After giving up a few more runs on 4\/9, he&#8217;s got an era in the 20s.\u00a0 Riggelman had said before he plans on only using him in no-pressure situations (read: complete blowouts), which reduces the bullpen by one.\u00a0 Except that on 4\/9, when most of his bullpen needed a night off, he was forced to use Broderick in a close situation.\u00a0 So he comes in and lets the game get out of hand.\u00a0 This was one of the main reasons I advocated AGAINST a team like the Nats keeping a rule5 guy (as discussed in this <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=838\">March 16th post<\/a>).\u00a0 I would like to see the Nats negotiate a trade with the Cardinals so we can stash him in AAA and bring up <strong>Balester<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Not good or bad necessarily.<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>John Lannan<\/strong>&#8216;s 4\/6 start (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/nationals-journal\/post\/game_6_discussion_thread_nationals_at_marlins\/2011\/04\/07\/AFx5GPxC_blog.html?wprss=nationals-journal\">running thread<\/a>\/<a href=\"http:\/\/www.csnwashington.com\/04\/07\/11\/Nats-edge-Marlins-in-11-innings\/landing.html?blockID=499658&amp;feedID=6358\">gamer<\/a>\/<a href=\"http:\/\/washington.nationals.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_07_wasmlb_flomlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was\">box<\/a>)  didn&#8217;t look that great (5ip, 7hits, 3ER) as he demonstrated the danger  of leadoff hits  or walks.\u00a0 Three straight baserunners to start the game  lead to  two runs and it could have been worse had he not embarassed <strong>Logan Morrison<\/strong> on three straight curveballs to get out of an easy sac fly situation   for a 3rd run.\u00a0 Lannan&#8217;s showing more velocity than I remember, 90-91mph   but acting like a sinkerballer (cool stat heard on TV; Lannan ranks  4th  in the majors over the past few years in ground-ball percentage).\u00a0 I  put Lannan closer to the &#8220;good&#8221; category because his BABIP is .333 and his  xFIP ranks him best among the starters so far.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tom Gorzelanny<\/strong>&#8216;s season debut 4\/9 (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_09_wasmlb_nynmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">gamer\/box<\/a>) had some good (he retired 8 straight after giving up 2 first inning runs and he had 8 Ks in 5 1\/3 innings), and some bad (two homers plus a long fly-ball that almost was a third homer to <strong>Carlos Beltran<\/strong>, needing 26 pitches to get out of the first inning and throwing 98 to complete just 5 1\/3 innings).\u00a0 Hi start may have gone completely differently had he gotten a borderline strike-3 call the pitch prior to Beltran&#8217;s first inning homer.\u00a0 I like WHIP as a better rough indicator than ERA for starters; and Gorzelanny may have given up 6 runs (5 earned) in less than 6 innings, but he only put 6 baserunners on in those 5 1\/3 innings.\u00a0 Most of the time, a whip around 1 per inning gets absorbed by double plays and stranded base runners; today they all scored.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Quick Thoughts on the offense<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The words &#8220;Partially torn labrum&#8221; are not a good thing for <strong>Adam LaRoche<\/strong>, and I&#8217;m afraid we&#8217;re about to lose him for a very long time.\u00a0 Like perhaps the season.\u00a0 To make matters worse he hurt his leg sliding on Sunday and was taken out of the game (putting Pudge at 1B for the first time in years).\u00a0 Ironically, <strong>Michael Morse<\/strong> playing first base was a very early-into-the-offseason suggestion; keep <strong>Josh Willingham <\/strong>in left and play Morse at first.\u00a0 Of course, now we&#8217;re potentially looking at the worst possible situation; we blow FA dollars on a 2nd tier first-baseman, trade away Willingham for assets that are either hurt or in the minors, and then watch our first baseman go down with injury the first week of the season.\u00a0 Not good news.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Wilson Ramos<\/strong>&#8216;s excellent start is quickly answering two questions for the Nats; who is the catcher of the (immediate) future?\u00a0 And, how will <strong>Ivan Rodriguez<\/strong> be used this year?\u00a0 Well the answer to the second question is quickly becoming &#8220;once a week backup,&#8221; as Pudge is looking incredibly over-matched at the plate.\u00a0 It may be a sad ending for Pudge; despite still being excellent defensively, if he can&#8217;t hit .200 he may be forced into retirement after this season.<\/li>\n<li>I like what <strong>Danny Espinosa<\/strong> is doing thus far; if he can force himself into the upper-end of this lineup, the team will be better for it.\u00a0 Especially as a switch hitter; he could allow us to return Werth to a more natural batting position (like 5th).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Overall Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Despite not getting nearly as good a set of starts as the first turn  through, the team takes 2 of 3 in NY and salvages a .500 road trip.\u00a0  Can&#8217;t ask for much more than that.\u00a0 I&#8217;m going the Wednesday game and can&#8217;t wait to see <strong>Roy Halladay <\/strong>vs Lannan.\u00a0 Should be good.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;re two turns through the rotation now and the team sits at 4-5.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s some rundowns on how the pitching is trending. Good Half the Bullpen.\u00a0 2010 holdovers Clippard, Storen, and Burnett are pitching lights out to open the season.\u00a0 Now if only the Nats still had the other half of the 2010 bullpen still [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-natsrotationreview"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=997"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/997\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1231,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/997\/revisions\/1231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}