Nationals Arm Race

Wang re-ups for his 3rd year in a Nats uniform. Photo from Washington Nationals photo day.

Here’s a weekly wrap up of Nats-related news items, with my thoughts as appropriate.

• MLBtraderumor’s Tim Dierkes announced that the cutoff for this year’s “Super-2” status is 2 years, 146 days.  This cutoff means that two (and possibly three) Nats players made the cut and will be in line for a 4th arbitration season.  Jordan Zimmermann made it by 8 days, Tyler Clippard by 2 days (!), and Roger Bernadina (at least according to Amanda Comak‘s calculations; he’s missing from Dierkes’ list).  In Bernadina’s case, it may not matter, as he’s out of options for 2012, isn’t likely to make the roster anyway and seems a certainty for a non-tender.  We’ll save salary speculation for a future post as we get closer to the arbitration dates.  11/1 update: Dierkes responded to my comment in this blog posting and said that his personal calculations determined that Bernadina missed the cutoff.
• Tim Dierkes is a busy man; he has a series of FA analysis by position and posted his Center Field analysis over the weekend.  Considering that the Nats have been looking for a quality center fielder essentially since moving to Washington, the analysis is a good read.  The news isn’t good; Dierkes only projects ONE viable CF FA candidate: Coco Crisp (quotes later in the week though confirm that Crisp wants to stay on the west coast, making him a less likely candidate).  He mentions Grady Sizemore as being worth a flier but no guarantee to be healthy.  There’s some “thinking outside the box” candidates, guys who are older and who could hold on to CF for another year, but if the Nats were to do that we might as well either go with Jayson Werth in center or re-sign Ankiel.  Trade potential BJ Upton is still there, and I’m sure he’s still available for the right price.  Perhaps the Nats could package a bunch of prospects for both Upton and Shields.  One other interesting name to consider: Melky Cabrera.  Nice season, nearly a 20/20 guy.  Getting a bit expensive for KC… maybe we could flip them some pitching surplus.
• Sammy Solis has marginally improved as the AFL has gone forward, putting in a 4ip, 1run performance on Oct 29th.  Meanwhile, what is going on with Matthew Purke?  In three appearances through 10/29 he’s given up 11 runs on 10 hits in 3 1/3 innings.  Not good.  We may have to just shield our eyes until spring training.
• Bill Ladson reported on a conversation he had with Mike Rizzo about the Nats off-season plans, and the takeaway seems to be that the team “has made no promises” to Adam LaRoche about playing time in 2012.  I just have a hard time believing that the team plans on just ignoring 1/8th of their payroll (LaRoche’s $8M salary on last year’s $68M payroll) by signing a replacement.  Rizzo pursued and signed LaRoche for a reason; good defense and adequate bat.  At least, that’s the idea.  Personally I have a hard time believing that Albert Pujols is leaving St. Louis, and I’ll bet that Fielder stays in the NL central as well (perhaps replacing Carlos Pena in Chicago as Theo Epstein‘s first big signing).
• ESPN’s Buster Olney believes the Nats will look at Grady Sizemore, recently having his 2012 option declined by the Indians, as a center field option.  I suppose Sizemore is no more of a risk than it would be to resign Rick Ankiel, or to experiment with Werth in center and a player to be named (Laynce Nix?) in right.  It would be ironic to see Sizemore come back to the team that drafted and developed him, only to trade him in an incredibly damaging deal for a few months rental of Bartolo Colon.
• Taken from a link in the previous Olney posting, the “Field of Dreams” property in Iowa used to make the movie of the same name is being sold.  Visitors come by the thousands even to this day to see the makeshift field built into a century-old farmland.  What I find neat is the apparent unassuming nature of the owners and the fact they’ve never really attempted to commercialize the property.  In that respect, it reminds me of Cooperstown, which I visited for the first time this past summer (blog post in the works with pictures) and found to be amazingly quant and un-tarnished by the type of tourist-driven revenue generators you find at other places in this country.
• A post courtesy of Rob Neyer‘s blog about the seemingly imminent move of the Astros to the AL West points out a salient points the Houston fan base would have to put up with; more 9:05pm local starts as the team travels to play new rivals on the West coast.  This likely will badly affect their TV ratings.  Will the Astros take to having new divisional rivals in the Angels, A’s and Mariners well?  It doesn’t seem to have really hurt the Rangers, who have the same issue.  One has to think an intra-state, intra-divisional rivalry with the Rangers would be fantastic for both teams though.  Imagine 18 games and state bragging rights at stake for a state that takes its bragging rights (in all matters, both sports and non) very seriously.
• All 8 of our free agents filed as soon as the FA filing period opened, as reported by Adam Kilgore.  I’ve got a post coming up on thoughts on the 8 free agents and which I think we should look at resigning.
• Jon Heyman‘s first off-season column addresses some of the main “questions” facing baseball this off-season and he includes answering some of the major FA rumors.  He lists the Nats as favorites for both Prince Fielder and CJ Wilson.  Signing both would instantly add $30M of payroll to a team that already projects at somewhere in the $65M already basically allocated (we owe $45M in guaranteed contracts on the books now, probably somewhere in the range of $13M to clear our arbitration cases, and the rest being minimum salaries to 40-man guys).  Are the Lerners ready to step up and pay this kind of money?
• Heyman’s article also notes that the last remaining issue in the MLB contract negotiations relates to Draft Slotting.  Bud Selig has been pushing hard for this, as he feels smaller market teams get screwed by agents who know bigger market teams will pay the money for their guys.  Meanwhile the league is apparently read to ditch free agent compensation picks as a bargaining chip.  Certainly the union has to like this (especially for relievers, who get labeled type-A and suddenly can’t find work).
• Dodger Fan’s long nightmare may be over: Frank McCourt is apparently willing to sell the team for $1B in a deal that seems to completely remove him from gaining any additional benefit from the team (meaning, he has to divest the parking lots he was threatening to keep control over).  Now if only Bud Selig would consider a decent replacement owner instead of one of Selig’s friends or whoever greased his palm most recently … ah modern baseball.  11/2/update: maybe there won’t be a Selig-appointee; apparently the team will be sold at auction.  Great!  That means an owner not necessarily hand-picked by Selig and his cronies.  I’d love to see Mark Cuban get involved but apparently he was approached a few months ago and backed out.
• Baseballamerica.com had a front-page feature on the Nats on 11/1.
• FanGraphs’ top 15 Nats prospects wasn’t too surprising (also posted 11/1).  I’m amazed how high AJ Cole is (called the top pitcher in the system, barely eclipsing the promise of both Alex Meyer and Matthew Purke).  And I’m amazed how far Derek Norris has fallen.  The article also points out something rather interesting: the Potomac rotation could be Meyer, Purke, Cole, Ray and then someone like Selik.  Wow.
• SI.com’s Ben Reiter put out his list of the top 50 FAs available and has the Nats on Jose Reyes and Coco Crisp, but not Prince Fielder or Edwin Jackson.  I guess I wouldn’t complain if we got both or either guy; either would ably fit into the lead-off spot that we’ve struggled with for years (and if we got both put them 1-2 … and move both Espinosa and Desmond’s .220 batting averages to the bottom of the order).
• And here’s Tim Dierkes’s top 50 FA list with guesses on destinations: He has the Nats mentioned as an interested party with most of the top names and signing only CJ Wilson of his top 50 list.
• And here USA Today’s Paul White‘s top 50 FA list, with the Nats projected to land Coco Crisp, Freddie Garcia (?!?) and Chein-Ming Wang.   His comment as to why we’d sign Garcia?  “Short term fix while the kids develop.”  It makes one wonder if he’s seen the state of our starting pitching frankly.  There’s little reason to doubt Milone or Peacock (or some combination of both) being able to fit into the 5th starter.
• Ron Dibble.  wow.
• Gold Glove winners announced; there doesn’t seem to be any egregiously bad winners like there was last year (Derek Jeter).  There were some complaints from the likes of Rob Neyers about the AL shortstop selection, using the Fielding Bible awards as his source.  But lets face it; the voters for the golden gloves probably spend about 20 seconds on it, when handed the form while dealing with a gazillion other items in September after a long season.  They’re voting reputations, not Uzr/150 results.  In fact i’d wager that fully 75% or more of the voters couldn’t tell you what Ultimate Zone Rating is or how it measures defensive capabilities.
• SI’s Joe Sheehan puts out a nice overview of each division’s “state of franchise” post, and his thoughts on the Nats are interesting.  He has no idea if the team is going to be spooked byWerth’s contract and poor production, and suggests trading Tyler Clippard for a CF.
• Chien-Ming Wang has officially re-signed with the team, per this SI article late Wednesday night.  We got details thursday: 1yr, $4M with some incentives.   That’s a bit more than I predicted (I was thinking something in the range of $2.5M as a guess).  But it still seems like a good deal, all things considered.  I’ll take a $4M #4 pitcher versus the $7.5M Marquis cost, and he seems like he could very well improve on his 2011 performance.
• Byron Kerr has a rather effusive article on Sammy Solis (calling his fastball “lethal” and “high-velocity?”  Sorry Byron; he’s got #3 starter stuff, not Randy Johnson-esque power) and his efforts to learn a new pitch; a regular curve-ball.  Solis has used a knuckle-curve that spins/breaks more violently, but is harder to control.  He’s reached the point in his career where he needs alternatives to fastballs and change-ups that he can count on, and hopefully this helps him to the next level.  This is a common theme; high schoolers with merely upper 80s stuff can routinely get away with blowing the ball by most of the opposing lineups of weakling 16-18yr olds and sometimes experience a reality check when going up against hitters who can make the adjustment.
• The Nats exposed Brian Bixler to waivers (i.e., designated him for assignment to remove him from the 40-man) and he got claimed by the Astros.  Not a major loss (he had a 47 ops+ last season), but still someone who could have helped out next year had he passed through to our AAA roster and been able to be “stashed” in Syracuse.  Best of luck to him.  His position is easily replaced from within from someone like Lombardozzi, or on the FA market similar to our 2011 signings of Hairston and Cora.

Are the Nats going to go after Jose Reyes? Photo unknown via wpix.com

Here’s my latest personal answers to Bill Ladson’s inbox, 10/24/11 edition.

As always, I edit the questions for clarity, and write my own response before reading Ladson’s.

Q: You talk about the Nationals needing a leadoff man. Who better than free agent Jose Reyes? Do you think there’s any chance the Nationals might pursue him? He can hit, get on base and steal.

A: Reyes has good numbers, no doubt.  However, the difference between his 2011 numbers and his career numbers is scary.  He screams “contract year” over-production.  At least he’s not on the wrong side of 30 yet.  Problem is, the team likes Desmond and needs a center fielder, not a SS.  I don’t think they go after him.  Ladson suspects that the Nats will stick with the DP combo of Desmond and Espinosa and look elsewhere for FA talent.

Q: I was curious as to what the organization had in store for right-hander Shairon Martis. I know that he had not been lights-out when he was called up to the big leagues, but I think most people are unaware of how young this individual is. He is only 24, and he had a solid season this year. Is Martis under the radar or is he only future trade fodder?

A: I think Martis became an “organizational guy” the moment he passed off our 40-man and passed through waivers successfully.  He’ll need to be “lights out” and more in AAA before the team considers him for anything other than roster filling.  Ladson notes that he could be  minor league free agent this off season (I hadn’t noted this before, but sure enough he’s got six years of minor league service after signing as an international free agent.  He may be moving elsewhere this off-season).

Q: With Stephen Strasburg on an innings limit next season, wouldn’t it make sense to stretch out his season by going with a six-man rotation? This way, if the Nationals are good enough to play October baseball, Strasburg and potentially Chien-Ming Wang — if he re-signs — would be forces for the entire season. It also opens another rotation spot for one of the pitchers.

A: A good idea … and one that won’t fly with the rest of the veteran starting pitchers.  A 6-man rotation means an extra day of rest for everyone, throwing them off their normal schedules.  Its ok to put a bunch of rookie call-ups into a 6-man rotation pitching in meaningless games in September, but I can’t see the team going this route.  A better way to stretch out Strasburg would be to stash him on the DL for a few weeks mid-season, which should stretch him through September on his innings limit.   Ladson says that Davey Johnson isn’t going to do a 6-man rotation, Gorzelanny probably is your spot starter and that the Nats would “find a way” to have him pitch in a playoff race.

Q: What do you think of Rick Eckstein’s performance as the Nats’ hitting coach? I do not think he has had the success as a coach, for the Nats were one of the worst hitting teams in the National League last year. Will the Nats look for someone new?

A: While i’m not sure you can lay the entire team’s hitting inadequacies on Eckstein, I do think the team needs to shake things up and may move in a different direction.  Ladson thinks the team likes Eckstein, notes the improvement in Morse, and predicts he’ll be back in 2012.

Q: In the last Inbox, you brought up Brett Gardner’s name as a possible trade target, and I have to admit I was intrigued. After a few days of seeing the reaction in the blog section of the story, I was wondering what you thought it would take for the Nationals to acquire Gardner’s services.

A: For the Yankees to give up Gardner, we’d probably need to give them starting pitching prospects.  I’d think it would probably take someone like Ross Detwiler and Brad Meyers.  Gardner would fit what the Nats need; centerfielder who can lead-off.  He didn’t have the best 2011 stats but does have a pretty good OBP and gets a ton of steals.  He’s arbitration eligible for the first time in 2012 so his price will be rising.  Ladson agrees with my guess on what it would take to get him in trade.

Q: Would the Nationals ever consider doing a throwback game in which they wear Expos uniforms? I know that many people in Washington want nothing to do with Montreal, but I’m confident it would attract some attention to the team. It would be super cool to see the old uniforms once again.

A: I think it would be neat to see them in Expos uniforms as well, but the team seems to want to distance itself from the whole Expos debacle.  Throwbacks go WAY back, to the time of the Senators generally.  Ladson agrees.

Q: Besides Morse and Ryan Zimmerman, it seems to me that the Nats aren’t exactly overflowing with power bats. Are the Nats planning on searching for a power bat this offseason?

A: One can certainly make an argument that one or two more power hitters in this lineup would have turned the team from an 80-81 team into a wild card contender.  So I’d like to see this team add some more offense.  But, the big bats on the market are going to be expensive.  Is this team, which seemed to get burned on the Jayson Werth big contract, be willing to take another risk?  Ladson says they are focusing on power off the bench and seem ready to stand pat on most of their lineup.

Q: What are your thoughts on trading a young pitcher for a player like Lorenzo Cain of the Royals? Is he on the Nats’ radar or are the Nats looking for someone more established? Or is Cain just not that promising?

A: I’ve never even heard of Cain, frankly.  We have plenty of young arms though, in fact we have too many and the likelihood is that both Tommy Milone and Brad Peacock are starting the year in AAA (to say nothing of Meyers, Maya and a decent set of prospect starters set to arrive within 2-3 years like Solis, Meyer, and Purke).   Ladson said he’s never heard about Cain either.

A quick wrap-up of news items floated lately with a Nats interest in mind… and some opinion on each bullet point.

• Baseball America posted a wrap-up of the 2011 Nats draft.  In short, BA thought the Nats had the best draft in 2011, getting the draft’s best hitter in Anthony Rendon, a big arm in Alex Meyer and a potential steal in Matthew Purke.   Nothing we didn’t already know…
• Speaking of Rendon, this news item reports that he may not make it to the AFL after all.  This concerns me, honestly.  Just how bad was his shoulder injury??
• Interestingly, the Nats returned 2011 rule-5 pickup Elvin Ramirez to the Mets after having him languish on our 60-day DL all season.  I’m slightly surprised by the move, in that the team obviously wanted to give him a shot when they took him earlier this year.  Now, after paying his freight all year without ever really seeing him perform in a game situation (he did throw in the instructionals though) we’ve given up on him.  My guess is that the team knows its bullpen is going to be competitive in 2012 and don’t anticipate being able to carry a youngster.
• Ken Rosenthal has a quick primer on the issues remaining to be haggled over in the next MLB deal.   Some things of interest that could be included are draft slotting, an earlier signing deadline date, earlier free-agency, more wild-card teams and a balanced league schedule.
• Si’s Jon Heyman had a quick blurb about Phillie’s closer and FA Ryan Madson being a possible Nats off-season target.  More interestingly he reports that Jayson Werth is trying to pitch Madson on the team.  I’m guessing that the pitch job would include an understanding that the Nats already have a pretty good closer in Drew Storen (who just came in 3rd in the 2011 Rolaids Reliever of the Year award) and that Madson would be a setup guy.  In a crowded closer FA market, perhaps Madson needs to keep his options open in case he can’t get a closer guaranteed job.  I’m hoping that Werth’s “pitching” his former teammate isn’t interpreted as a lack of confidence in his current closer … a bit of press hype that certainly isn’t out of the realm of possible to be overblown so as to start a New York-style press issue.
• A couple different news sites along with MLB’s beat reporter Bill Ladson are reporting that the team is close to signing Chien-Ming Wang to a new deal.  This isn’t terribly surprising to those of us that have read every bit of Nats news this off season, and I’m all for signing him for 2012 after he’s been paid to re-hab for two years by this team.  It would be a refreshing bit of FA business to see someone like Wang take a lesser-monied deal to stay with the team that nursed him back to health.  Wang would probably slot in nicely as our #4 starter next year but would mean that the team faces a tough decision next spring training for the back end of the rotation.  Ross Detwiler is out of options and seems set to compete right now with Tommy Milone for this 5th starter spot.  This also leaves no room for additional FA signings (CJ Wilson anyone?).
• Thank god we don’t live in Boston.  Terry Franconia scapegoated for his team’s collapse in September and then absolutely denigrated by his owner (stay classy Mr. Henry).  Theo Epstein (who you may put more of the September collapse on than the manager by virtue of leaving the team rather thin in terms of quality starting pitching) reads the tea leaves and escapes for Chicago.  Now the whole “beer drinking” story that won’t die; starting pitchers would drink some beer and eat chicken on their off days, or maybe they were drinking beer in the dugout during games.  I dunno; a starter in-between starts has little to nothing to do during the games; in fact veterans are often allowed to travel home early to be with family.  It seems to me to be the Boston press playing into the hands of a rather cowardly news source, looking to grind a personal axe with the named players.  Not a very healthy organization, the Red Sox, right now.
• Bryce Harper finally exploded in the AFL with a homer, 2 other hits and 2 walks for a pretty good game.  I wouldn’t read too much into his struggles in the AFL, or in AA for that matter.  I think he’s exhausted after his first full season and it should be more telling to see how he starts 2012.
• Bill Ladson had a quick interview with Adam LaRoche, who reports that he’s recovering, starting baseball activities soon and that the team hasn’t promised him any playing time in 2012.  What??  I’m sure that quote is being blown out of proportion; why would the Nats have signed him for 2 years if they didn’t want him, for 2 whole years??  Of course the team wants him to play next year, to be the 25homer/100rbi left handed middle-of-the-order plus-defender player that they paid for in the off-season.  I suppose its possible the team will make a splash for Fielder or Pujols, but don’t think for a second this team doesn’t plan on just flushing LaRoche’s $8M salary in 2012.  Follow up comments from GM Rizzo seem to indicate the team plans to stand pat.
• Please, please Nats do not get involved in the Yu Darvish madness.  They got burned on Maya; the Red Sox got burned on Dice-K.  It’ll cost many tens of millions of dollars just to “win” the posting, then even more money to sign the guy.  Is he worth $80-$100M?  Wouldn’t you rather get a known quantity for that kind of pitching outlay?

Here’s my latest personal answers to Bill Ladson‘s inbox, 10/10/11 edition.

As always, I edit the questions for clarity, and write my own response before reading Ladson’s.

Q: Why is there constant talk of the Nationals pursuing Rays outfielder B.J. Upton? The Nationals have a crowded outfield with Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper. The Nationals are getting killed in on-base percentage, so why trade for Upton who barely bats .250 with a less than impressive OBP. Wouldn’t a better route be to pursue an infielder with a traditional OBP and trade either Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa?

A: Good question.  The Nats like B.J. Upton b/c he fills two needs for this team; plus defense CF and lead-off hitter.  In theory anyway; I agree with the questioner that Upton may be more hype than hope.   His 2011 was better than his career line, but was less than impressive .243/.331/.429.  He’s slugging the ball more, hitting for more power, but a .331 OBP isn’t that much better than what we were getting out of our own lead-off hitters.  Lets not forget either that Bryce Harper isn’t going to be in the opening day 2012 lineup, so its not like he’s ready to go.  We still need a CF solution for 2012 and i’m guessing that we go with another year of Rick Ankiel.  Ladson more or less agrees, predicting that the team acquires two outfielders this off-season.

Q: With the Nats still looking for pop in the lineup, is it out of the question for them to pursue first baseman Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder and keep Morse in left?

A: I don’t think its out of the question, but I would be really surprised if either marquee first baseman is pursued or signed.  They’re both going to command massive, major financial commitments and for a team that has held steady at $60-$68M in payroll, I have a hard time seeing them sign off.  Remember, we still have Adam LaRoche coming back, and Rizzo didn’t sign him for the hell of it.  Ladson thinks the team may actually pursue Fielder to add lefty pop to the lineup.

Q: Do you see Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner as a possible trade acquisition for the Nationals. What have you heard?

A: Why in the world would the Yankees trade Gardner?  Pre-arbitration, decent lead-off option and gold-glove defender in left.  We have a left-fielder.  It would take a severe prospect haul to get him, and I don’t think we really need him long term.  Ladson thinks he’s a great fit and that it is an intriguing deal.

Q: This may sound crazy but what about putting left-hander John Lannan and outfielder Roger Bernadina in a package for a quality starter? Lannan, in my mind, hasn’t been a quality starter and Bernadina hasn’t improved during his time with the Nats.

A: Bernadina is value-less in a trade; he’s out of options and teams know it, so all they have to do is wait until April 1st, 2012 and they can have him for free.  Lannan IS a quality starter already; he’s not going to ever get us value in return near what he gives us already.  I don’t think either guy is really someone that helps us in terms of trade.  Ladson agrees.

Q: Do the Nats conduct “exit interviews” whereby they suggest offseason training, workouts and how the player should work on his deficiencies?

A: I’m sure they do for returning players; i’d guess FAs are just told thanks and we’ll see you.  These players are investments, and if the player is motivated he’ll want to do in the off-season what guarantees the most success in 2012.  Ladson says that Davey Johnson spoke to every player on the last day of the season, reviewed their performance and talked about 2012.

Q: Behind the scenes, was the Nats’ coaching staff holding the players accountable for the high number of strikeouts that were accumulated in 2011?

A: I don’t know if you can “hold a player accountable” for strikeouts.  I think strikeouts come with the territory for some hitters; i’ll take a guy that hits 20 homers with more than his average number of Ks.  However, a high strikeout guy who is a slap hitter for no power?  Bad news.  That’s the kind of guy that needs adjustment to his game.   Ladson notes that Johnson clearly wants the team to take less strikeouts, especially called 3rd strikes, and mentions three guys in particular.  Werth, Desmond and Espinosa.  Fair enough.

MLB beat writer Bill Ladson doesn’t do mailbags that often, and when he does sometimes his answers are arguable.  Here’s his 10/3/11 edition.

Q: Do you think Davey Johnson will return as manager of the Nationals in 2012?

Q: Are the Nationals thinking about moving Ian Desmond to center field, Danny Espinosa to shortstop and Stephen Lombardozzi to second? They always say that shortstops are the best skilled players. I think they will get the center fielder they need and improve their infield defense.

A: (the same question was posed in Boswell’s chat on monday): I don’t think Desmond helps the team in Center.  You need more production out of center fielders.  If Desmond can’t cut it for this team at Short, we’ll trade him and put Espinosa there.  Lombardozzi hasn’t shown me that he’s anything more than a Brian Bixler-utility guy, and the team may bide its time until Anthony Rendon is ready.  Ladson reminds us how much the team, and Johnson, likes Desmond.

Q: If the Nationals are looking for a center fielder, why not Carlos Beltran, even though he is aging and has been hurt in the past? He seems to fit all of the Nationals’ needs and is a good veteran presence for some of the young players.

A: Three primary reasons: Beltran isn’t a center fielder anymore.  He’s now a corner outfielder at this point in his career.  Plus I think you’d be overpaying for a contract year.  Lastly, he’s a type-A free agent, meaning it would cost us your #16 overall pick.  Ladson points out that he’s a corner outfielder.  He’d be for a one-year deal, that’s it.

Q: Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and John Lannan are locks for next year’s rotation. Considering Mike Rizzo would like to acquire a veteran starter, that would mean that Chien-Ming Wang (if re-signed), Ross Detwiler, Brad Peacock, Tom Milone and the other Minor Leaguers will all be fighting for one spot?

A: This seems like the current situation, yes.  However, I would not be surprised to see some of this starter depth flipped for a plus defender that we can put out in leadoff/center field.  Lannan could be trade bait (though I think we’d struggle to get enough for him to match how this team values him).  Wang is no sure thing to re-sign.  Detwiler pretty much HAS to make the team in 2012, so you may have your rotation already stated. Ladson just says generically that you can never have enough depth.

Q: I think Chris Marrero has proven in a short time that he is a Major League hitter. What role, if any, do you think he will have with the team next season?

A: Good question: he hit well, but doesn’t seem to have the power you need to man the First Base position in the majors.  Its tough to take a .300 hitter out of the lineup though.  Of course, he wasn’t a .300 hitter by the end of the season (final slash line: .248/.274/.294); a 5-game slide to end the season cost him 40 batting average points.  Marrero’s problem is a lack of power.  His slugging percentage wasn’t even at .300; it needs to be closer to .500 to play first base.  I think he starts 2012 back in AAA, waiting for an injury or slow Adam LaRoche start to get a call-back.  Ladson predicts trade chip or 2012 bench player.

Q: Since being sent to the bullpen, Tom Gorzelanny has done a pretty decent job. Do you see him back in the bullpen next year?

A: Yes you bet.  Gorzelanny’s bullpen split for 2011 was great; 2.42 era in 15 games.  He immediately takes over the primary long-man/spot-starter role and features as a middle reliever as needed.  He’s just the kind of guy that Davey Johnson likes in the pen.  Ladson agrees.

Q: You have reported that the Nats’ front office isn’t sold on outfielder Roger Bernadina. Please explain how Werth, Jonny Gomes and Brian Bixler are improvements.

A: At least Werth provides enough power and OBP to pull his OPS+ value up to nearly 100 in a season where he struggled mightily.  Bernadina doesn’t get on base nearly as much and doesn’t slug as much, meaning on average he’s about 20% less valuable a hitter than a MLB average player.  And he’s done this consistently across 1000+ at bats at the major league level.

Gomes is not an improvement; he was a mid-season bench augmentation who probably gets non-tendered in November.  Meanwhile, Bixler is not an apples-to-apples comparison.  Teams need utility infielders to provide cover at 2nd, short and 3rd.  Bernadina is a backup outfielder who can be replaced, and is replaceable.

I’m not sold on Bernadina either; he’s had plenty of chances and i doubt he’s part of the organization in 2012.  Ladson says he never said these three guys were replacements for Bernadina, but thinks that Gomes and Bixler are not with the team in 2012.

Q: Despite his inconsistency, Hernandez definitely shows that he wants to stay with the Nationals and brings so much to the clubhouse. He is even willing to become a long reliever. With that in mind, do you think he’ll be re-signed?

A: Good question.  Initially I thought he’d be resigned as a valuable and cheap middle relief/spot starter guy.  But now i’m worried there’s not going to be room for the guy in the bullpen.  I think our 2012 bullpen starts with Storen, Clippard, Burnett, Mattheus, HRodriguez, Gorzelanny as near locks.  The 7th guy could be a FA signing, or perhaps Peacock or even Stammen.  Livan needs too long to warm up to really be useful in the bullpen.  Sorry to say; i think we part ways.  Ladson says that Gorzelanny is the “swingman” and that the team won’t need two.  Fair enough.

Here's a scary nightmare for Nats fans. Photo: Nats official photo day via deadspin.com

Bill Ladson did his seemingly monthly inbox on 8/29/11.  Here’s how i’d have answered the questions he took.

Q: What are your thoughts on Chien-Ming Wang possibly being a part of the rotation next year?

A: I’m not quite ready to say he’s worth considering for one of our 5 rotation spots next year.  We get 6 more starts to decide.  Remember though its not a given that he’ll even be back with us (a topic for an imminent blog post).  Ladson says if he continues to look good there’s a strong possibility he’ll be back.  We’ll see.

Q: Do you think that Prince Fielder is a good fit for the Nationals? I understand that Adam LaRoche has another year guaranteed, but Fielder’s bat is much needed in the middle of the lineup.

A: No, I don’t think Fielder is a good fit.  I think he’s a bad-body, poor defense first baseman who may age badly.  Plus, I don’t think this team is ready or willing to spend that kind of money again, so soon after getting burned on the Werth deal.  Ladson says the last thing they need is another first baseman.  Good point.

Q: Do you think the Nationals should try to re-acquire Alfonso Soriano?

A: Hahahah.  That had to be a joke question. Absolutely not; he’s vastly overpaid, is producing at a fraction of his salary, is a mediocre left fielder at best, and wasn’t exactly Mr. Winner in the clubhouse. The Cubs are stuck with him for the next several years unless they decided to just eat millions of dollars of his salary to pay him to go away.  Ladson: Absolutely not.

Q: I have heard there is a chance that Anthony Rendon would play third base once he gets to the big leagues and Ryan Zimmerman would move to first base. Is this true?

A: I have a hard time believing a player routinely mentioned in the discussion of the best defensive third baseman in the league would be moved by an unproven rookie, no matter what his pedigree or reputation may be.  This isn’t like Mike Bordick moving a secretly awful defensive shortstop in Cal Ripken; this is one of the two or three best positional defenders in the game.  Rendon moves, not Zimmerman.  Ladson says that Rendon will play 3B professionally and will move for Zim.  But, Zim’s contract runs out in 2013 and that’s a great point … where will the team be by then?

Q: Do you think Danny Espinosa can beat out Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award?

A: Not anymore; perhaps if he continued his upward average trend starting in July through the end of the year he could have challenged. But Kimbrel’s great ERA and save totals will get him the win. Atlanta may have the top 3 rookie of the year vote getters (including Beachy) and a leader in next year’s race in Tehran. That team is stacked and built for the future.  Ladson says : no, but that Espinosa should be in the hunt for a gold glove award.

Q: What is your take on Roger Bernadina? He has produced with consistency, especially in the leadoff position, but keeps getting sent down.

A: You think he’s “produced?”   Here’s his career stats; he’s got almost identical numbers in 2011 to his 2010 numbers, and with more than 800 career at bats spread across multiple seasons he’s an 82 OPS+ hitter.  Sorry; you need more production out of a leadoff hitter, or any major league hitter, than that.   He used his last option in 2011 and most likely will be DFA’d after spring training 2012.   Ladson says he’s a tease and thinks he’s no more than a 4th outfielder.

Q: Can you explain the Nats’ fascination with shortstop Ian Desmond, given his regression at the plate this year — lower average, no power?

A: Its all about potential with Desmond.  His UZR/150 is still in the negative range but the team thinks he’s a plus-plus defender.  To his credit, he’s vastly cut down on throwing errors this year.  He has absolutely regressed at the plate.  But the team loves his leadership capabilities.  My take; he’ll be given one more year at SS to become a competent hitter and then Espinosa will take over.  Ladson plays the arbitrary endpoints game and says Desmond has improved since the all-star break.  Yeah, when you’re dead last in the league in OPS you have no place to go but up.

My answers to the questions he took on 7/26/11. I forgot to hit “post” on this and the content has been sitting around for weeks.  As you can see it was a lot of trade deadline talk when everyone thought we were getting a CF.

Q: What happens when Jordan Zimmermann reaches his innings limit? Does he go on the disabled list or will he be kept on the roster?

A: Good question. I’d guess he will get an invented injury if he reaches his limit in mid August, so the team isn’t short handed in the bullpen. Ladson notes that if he lasts til 9/1, rosters expand and there won’t be a need to play DL games.

Q: Would you trade Ian Desmond for Michael Bourn?  Would you trade Desmond, Clippard AND a Prospect for him?

A: If the Astros would take Desmond for Bourn, yeah I probably would make that deal.  I know we’d be selling Desmond short, and he has a lot of leadership qualities, but he’s not hitting the ball (he has one of the 2-3 lowest OPS figures in the league for qualifying hitters).  Anything MORE for Bourn and I think the deal doesn’t make sense for the Nats.   Ladson totes the party line on Desmond…and states that we’re not talking to Houston about Bourn.

Q: Who do you think would be a better fit with the Nationals: Bourn or B.J. Upton?

A: I think both would be good “fits.”  I’d rather have Upton. Upton grew up in Virginia Beach and knows Zimmerman from youth baseball, so he’d already have a friend on the team.  Ladson also notes the local connections with Upton.

Q: What are the chances of the Nationals making a run at Prince Fielder in the upcoming offseason?

A: Pretty high.  Of all the major FAs coming up, he’s a decent risk.  He’s still young and you’d be buying his absolute best years (as opposed to most FA targets, who are already into their 30s and on the decline when they get paid). He may not be the best defensive first baseman but he’d be a big help to the offensively-challenged lineup.  Ladson doesn’t seem to think we’re in the market for Fielder.

Q: What is the future of Chris Marrero, seemingly blocked now by both LaRoche and Morse?

A: Great question.  I think he’s trade bait.  He doesn’t hit well enough to push a 25 homer/100-rbi capable guy like LaRoche off the bag, and Morse is suddenly becoming one of the hottest hitters in the league.  Ladson thinks he’s trade bait.

Q: Did the Nats consider whether Werth could handle the pressures of his contract before they gave it to him?

A: No, and show me a team that DOES do that kind of consideration.  Stars are stars because they perform, not because they’re capable of performing.  Ladson says ask him about Werth in 2 more years.  Great answer.

Is Livan Hernandez pitching his way out of the Nats rotation? Photo: AP

The All-star break comes in-between rotation cycles 19 and 20 for the squad.   At this halfway point, only two of our starters have made all 19 starts (Livan and Lannan).  Zimmermann missed a start when the Pittsburgh “rainout” in May and Marquis missed a start to serve out his suspension for the beanball series in Arizona.  Gorzelanny missed the first rotation through, then missed another 4 starts to injury (those being taken by Maya).  Lastly the rescheduling of Zimmermann’s missed start into a 4th of July doubleheader called for a spot start from Detwiler.  That’s 19+19+18+18+13+4+1 = all 92 starts so far this year.  You have to think that the consistency out of the rotation is one of the big reasons this team is doing so well.

The all-star break also gives the squad a chance to slightly re-order its rotation, since most of the guys will be on major rest.  You can’t take your #1 starter and have him become the #5 though b/c of days rest.  But the team does seem to be slightly modifying its order.  We’ll go out in the 2nd half with Livan, then Lannan, then Gorzelanny, then Marquis and with Zimmermann 5th.  The move of Zimmermann to 5th seems like yet another attempt to preserve his arm, despite what Johnson is telling the press.  He seems set to hit his 160 innings limit in mid-August now, by which point we should start seeing alternatives in the rotation.

Good

• John Lannan evened both his W/L record and the team’s season record to .500 with a 5 2/3 inning, 2 run outing against the Braves on Saturday 7/16.   It wasn’t the cleanest outing for Lannan (5 hits and 4 walks in less than 6 innings) but he worked around the baserunners and kept the potent Atlanta offense off the board for the most part.
• Jason Marquis gave his team exactly what it needed on 7/18 (box/gamer): lots of quality innings to rest a bullpen that was shredded by Gorzelanny’s injury and (in my opinion) mismanagement by Davey Johnson (see bullet points below).  Marquis went 8 strong innings, giving up only 6 hits and striking out 9.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez kicked off the 2nd half with an awful performance in Atlanta on 7/15 (box/gamer).  He only lasted 4 innings, giving up 8 hits and 6 runs (3 earned).  The Braves hitters were tattooing his pitches, which he regularly was floating over the plate.  As the TV announcers said, Hernandez is a guy who depends on working the corners and keeping his pitches under control.  Friday he was routinely hanging curveballs over the plate and missing his spots and it showed.   I wonder at what point the team gives up on the Hernandez experiment; his inconsistency on the mound has to be baffling and he’s now thrown enough lemons to make him the worst of our starters statistically.  I can see Livan getting moved for a low-end prospect and one of our promising starters from AAA getting plucked to finish out the season.
• Jordan Zimmermann had an uncharacteristically bad outing on 7/19, getting touched for 6 runs in 5 innings against the lowly Astros to take the loss (box/gamer).  These are not the kind of innings we want out of Zimmermann before he gets shut down in August.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Tom Gorzelanny only lasted 2 innings in his 7/17 start (box/gamer) against the Braves before twisting his ankle on a play at the plate, putting the bullpen into all-hands-on-deck mode.  For the most part, the bullpen was ineffective, with Henry Rodriguez giving up the lead, Sean Burnett looking horrible, and Tyler Clippard striking out 4 in 2 innings but giving up a game-tying homer in the 8th.  It remains to be seen if Gorzelanny is going on the DL, but the injury didn’t seem that bad.

Starter Trends

Lhernandez    great,bad,good,bad,(break),bad
Lannan    good,good,bad,incomplete,(break),good
Gorzelanny    bad->dl,bad,good,good,(break),incomplete
Marquis    bad,great,bad,soso,(break),good
Zimmermann     good,great,good,good,(break),bad

Relievers of Note and other News

• The JC Romero experiment didn’t last very long; he was released on 7/13 after putting up good numbers in AAA.  Goessling guesses that perhaps he had an out clause in his contract calling for his release unless he was promoted.  I’m surprised he wasn’t kept around a bit longer, given Doug Slaten‘s continued DL stint and Sean Burnett‘s troubles.
• Ben Goessling reports on one of Chien-Ming Wang‘s latest rehab starts on 7/14, 6 shutout innings with zero walks and where he hit 94mph in Harrisburg.  I’m beginning to think that Wang’s actually healthy again and that the team may start looking to move Jason Marquis or Livan Hernandez sooner than later to make room for him.
• Ross Detwiler looked nearly as bad in relief as Livan did during his start on 7/15, requiring 47 pitches to get through 2 innings.  This was a perfect opportunity to shut down an offense that perhaps wasn’t in need of scoring any more runs on the night (especially behind Tim Hudson) but he continued to allow the game to get out of control.  If Detwiler doesn’t put something together this season, the team is going to have a very difficult decision on its hands.  He’s out of options (Gee, thanks for the 2007 callup Jimmy Bowden!) and clearly would be given a flyer by another team (as a first rounder lefty starter who reaches 94mph).
• Speaking of Detwiler, why exactly do we have him as the “long man” in the bullpen if he’s not available as that long man because the team wants to keep him on some sort of “every 4 days” starting-esque schedule?  The Long man needs to be available for exactly the kind of situation we faced on 7/17, when Gorzelanny came out after 2 innings.  Instead its all-hands on deck since Detwiler had pitched two days prior.  In this situation i’d far far rather still have Miguel Batista, who ably fit this role in 2010 and wouldn’t have cost a ton of money for 2011.
• Chien-Ming Wang‘s next start will be in AAA, per Bill Ladson‘s published report on Sunday.  This should be the best test yet for Wang’s recovery.  He’s looking like a good bet to join the rotation when he’s done with rehab.

Is this your 2011 NL Rookie of the Year? Photo: AP via silive.com

MLB Nationals beat reporter Bill Ladson doesn’t do mailboxes that frequently, but when he does I’m sometimes intrigued by his answers.  Lets see how i’d have answered the questions he took in his latest mailbag.  As always, I read the question and answer it myself prior to reading his answer.

Q: Don’t get me wrong, I love Danny Espinosa. But how can you say he’s the “most complete player I’ve covered since Vladimir Guerrero”
A: I like Danny Espinosa and was a fan of his even before he started his 2011 rookie-of-the-year campaign.  A question though: does Espinosa even feature as a typical 5-tool player? Power (yes), Average? (not yet … despite his BABIP being a bit low he’s only hitting in the .240s), but perhaps in the future.  Speed?  12 Stolen bases on pace for about 20.  Defense?  by all accounts yes.  Arm?  Definitely.  So, he’s pretty durn complete.  But, he’s got exactly 3/4 of one pro season under his belt.  A lot has to happen before we start comparing him to one of the better players in the last 20 years (Vladimir Guerrero).  Ladson says he IS a 5-tool player, and that he’s the best defensive 2nd baseman in baseball right now.  Heady statements.  Here’s a list of Uzr/150 ratings for 2nd basemen right now; Espinosa is 5th behind some pretty good defensive players.  Will he stay at 2nd base long enough to gain consideration or take over at short?  See below.

Q: With Mike Cameron traded to the Marlins, do you see the Nationals making a move to get someone like Cameron before the non-waiver Trade Deadline?
A: Mike Rizzo keeps talking about how he wants a center fielder.  BJ Upton and Michael Bourn are names that keep popping up.  But at what point does the team realize it may have a great future center fielder in Bryce Harper and just wait it out?  I wouldn’t want Cameron, an aging player living on his defensive reputation of yesteryear.   Ladson specifically mentions both Upton and Bourn, stating that the Nats are not interested in aging vets.

Q: What is Ian Desmond’s future with the team? Steve Lombardozzi seems like he could be a fit as a leadoff hitter sooner rather than later. Problem is, he plays second base. Could Desi move to left field, or is it more likely he goes to another ballclub? His numbers offensively have not been good.
A: Great question. Ian Desmond has clearly taken a step backwards offensively just at the same time that he’s finally taken a step forward defensively. What should the team do? Live with a plus defender (Desmond believe it or not has a positive Uzr/150 this year, putting him in the upper half of defensive short stops) and his crummy bat?  Or try to improve?  I think the answer may eventually be to transition Desmond to a different role if he can’t be more consistent at the plate.  I’m not sure Steve Lombardozzi is the answer (he very well may be; i’ve advocated in the past for this exact same move) until he proves he can hit at AAA and proves he can hit in the majors.  But we also have Anthony Rendon in the wings and may have to find a position for him as well.  Its a good problem to have; too many good players and not enough spots.  Ladson thinks Desmond is trade bait and is coveted by several teams; we may get our answer in the off-season.

Q: With Michael Morse doing so well at first base, is there any chance they might try and use LaRoche as trade bait?
A: Another great question.  The Nats do have some interesting story lines facing them as they go into 2011. Morse has been a revelation and will be a key part of the team in 2012. LaRoche is signed and is a 25 homer/100rbi guy with plus defense at first, so its hard to believe we’ll sell low on him and dump him this off season.  What would he bring in trade return?  Almost nothing.  My guess is that Morse moves back to left, we flip Nix into a reliever or something, and re-install LaRoche at first. Ladson Agrees.

Q: I saw recently that Chad Cordero retired. I know he left Washington with some resentment toward the front office, but is there any chance the two sides can bury the hatchet and honor Chad with some sort of ceremony thanking him for his contributions? He was a fan favorite who gave everything he had while wearing the curly W. He certainly deserves it.
A: Any resentment Cordero had towards this franchise should have died the day Bowden was fired. But, who knows, he could have blamed the owners for the actions of its employees. Without dishonoring the guy too much, how much of an impact did he really have here? You can argue that Cordero was a flash in the pan, an over-rated player in a position (closer) that is fungible and more or less replaceable with most any bullpen arm. He had a fantastic season the year the team moved here in 2005, and never came close to replicating it before getting hurt.  We spent most of the 2007 season talking about trading the guy.  It’d be like honoring Vinny Castillo in some ways.  Ladson agrees, and says we should think about honoring Frank Robinson first.  Fair enough, but why exactly does this team “need” to honor anybody from the past few years?  What did Frank Robinson do for this team except guide it to consecutive last place finishes?

Q: Do you see the Nationals moving Jayson Werth to the cleanup spot? We know how good Morse and Laynce Nix are, but chances are opposing teams will walk Ryan Zimmerman if those two are behind him.
A: I’m not sure what games this questioner is watching this year, but perhaps this guy has not seen that a) Werth is struggling mightily, b) Morse is hitting the ball lights out, and c) Nix is hitting a heck of a lot better than the average guy. You set your lineup so that you’re not batting 5 right-handed guys in a row but also with a mind towards the roles and capabilities of the players. Werth, Morse and Zimmerman are all right handed guys and should only be put together if you’re facing a lefty. Nix is a great way to break that up but his lefty-lefty splits aren’t that great.  What would be really great is if LaRoche was healthy and producing and in the mix for 3-4-5-6 as well, or if Espinosa becomes the power hitting force that he could be and continues to be a basher in the 2-hole.  Ladson says Werth may move back to #5 but he’s no cleanup hitter.

Q: When will Bryce Harper get promoted to the big leagues?
A: Target Mid June 2012. I think maybe the team gets a wild hair and calls him up this september for some cheap box office gate days. And you can’t blame them; he’s already on the 40-man roster after all. But any days he plays here in september delay the days he needs to sit in the minors so as to avoid super-2 status. Besides, Rizzo has repeatedly said he’s not coming up in 2011. Btw, I don’t believe Harper’s current struggles once promoted to AA mean much. He should have gone to high-a but understand why he skipped Potomac’s ridiculously bad field. He’ll pick it back up and he’ll hit .300 his final month of AA.  Ladson didn’t really answer, just saying that Harper won’t make it up this year.

Lannan, pre-nose shattering liner. Photo Luis Alvarez/AP

The 19th cycle was shortened by one start (Gorzelanny misses a turn in the rotation) as the league hits the all-star break.  We’ll pick up with the 20th cycle on Friday July 15th at the Braves, and will shuffle the order of the starters slightly.

Good

• Jordan Zimmermann took the team into the All Star break with a dominant 7 inning, 4hit, 6k outing against the Rockies on 7/10 (box/gamer).  It was a slightly questionable hook by Davey Johnson; Zimmermann was only on 88 pitches, but perhaps they’re thinking about squeezing innings out of him after we reach September.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez couldn’t protect the EIGHT run lead his offense gave him in the Cubs finale on 7/7 (box/gamer), but it was the bullpen that eventually took the ugly 10-9 loss.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• John Lannan took a liner off the nose, breaking it, in his 7/8 start (box/gamer).  Unfortunately despite 5ks in 3 innings he also took the loss.
• Jason Marquis was a bit wild in his 7/9 start (box/gamer) against the Rockies, taking the loss despite a 6inning, 2run outing.  Rockies starter Ubaldo Jimenez was too good, taking a no-hitter into the 5th.

Starter Trends: More up-and-down performances out of Livan make you wonder if his rotation spot is really that secure.  Marquis has tailed off at just the wrong time, while Lannan may visit the DL.

MLB Trends (through Zimmermann 7/10)
Lhernandez         bad,great,bad,good,bad
Marquis                good,bad,great,bad,soso
Lannan                 good,good,good,bad,incomplete
Zimmermann     great,good,great,good,good
Gorzelanny          soso,bad->dl,bad,good,good

Relievers of Note and other News

• Further notes about the Yankees interest in Sean Burnett, as reported by Bill Ladson.  Problem is, the Nats would be selling at an absolute low point on Burnett, with little in the way of left-handed relief coming up.
• The news, as suspected, is not good on Cole Kimball.  Torn rotator cuff, surgery required.  Lets hope that he recovers well.

Is Ankiel the solution for the Nats in center field? Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images via federalbaseball.com

Editors note: I was out of town last weekend and had this queued up but never hit publish :-).

MLB’s Nationals beat writer Bill Ladson hasn’t done an inbox for a few weeks, probably because he’s been busy at spring training.  Now that the regular season has started and we’ve had some debatable 25-man roster decisions made, he has published another edition of his Inbox column.  Here’s how i’d answer the questions he selects…

Q: What are you most worried about with the Nationals in 2011?

A: I’d say, in order, offense, the starting rotation, center field, and the back end of the bullpen.  I feel like we took a step backwards in terms of offense, we have improved the rotation over last year but still would probably rank this rotation 28th or 29th in the league, that Rick Ankiel in center field doesn’t really help us a ton, and that Drew Storen had such a rough spring that our end-of-game scenarios may be challenging.

Q: How do you think the Nationals will fare this season in the National League East with their off-season signings?

A: Probably the same as last year; last place.  Philadelphia and Atlanta are probably playoff bound no matter how many injuries the Phillies sustain.  Florida is probably taking a step side ways, having lost Uggla but picked up Vazquez (honestly, I don’t see how their fans don’t revolt at their perennial 87 win team doesn’t spend the $10 needed to improve themselves to be a 92 win team and challenge for the wild card).  The Nats may finish above the Mets, if only because that franchise is in such disarray right now.  They’re eating more than $20M in salary for players they’ve already released, they made no significant off-season moves and there’s serious injury question marks around 4 of their 5 best paid players (Santana, Beltran, Bay and Francisco Rodriguz).  I can see that time imploding badly and the Nats sneaking ahead of them for 4th place, maybe.

Q: If Bryce Harper has an amazing year in the Minors, is there a chance he will get a Major League callup?

A: They shouldn’t … but they may.  I would not be surprised to see the kid rocket through low-A and high-A ball.  It would be purely a late-season revenue grab to call him up, but they need to be careful on his service time accrual.  If he plays 30 days in September we’d have to keep him down an extra 30 days in 2012 to ensure he doesn’t become a super-2.  For those not clear on the implications of super-2 screwup, read this bit about the mistake the Giants made with Tim Lincecum.

That being said, i’d love to see him playing in the bigs before his 19th birthday.  That’d be fantastic.  And he may very well earn it.  His weakness in the AFL and in spring training was offspeed pitches, but its hard to fault the kid for wanting to swing and make something happen in the limited time he’s seen.  Once a full season gets going and he’s getting 4 ABs every night, he will learn patience, he will earn walks as pitchers work around him, and he’ll pick his spots.  This, more than anything else, is the lesson he needs to learn to advance in the minors.

Q: Do we see a parallel developing between Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell? How long do we have to wait?

A: It isn’t a bad parallel to note.  Bernadina lost the LF job, then the CF job, then the 4th outfielder job to a non-roster invitee.  He’s burning his last option as we speak.  He has a career 80 OPS+.  I openly questioned in this space why he was the presumed starter in LF all off-season, and as it turned out I was right about Morse being the better player.  I think he’ll play out the string in AAA this year and get traded for a low-level minor leaguer at the end of spring training 2012, just as we did with Morgan and Gonzalez this week.

Q: What do you think of the job general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman have done since they took over in 2009?

A: I think Rizzo has done a decent job with the major league team and a pretty good job with the farm system.  I feel like he’s tried a little TOO hard to rid the team of the non-defensive hitters Willingham and Dunn, and could have gotten more for them.  I understand the Werth signing but think (like the rest of baseball) that he overpaid and strangely backloaded the contract (why back load instead of front load?  We’re actually at LESS payroll this year than last, so we could be paying him $20M this year instead of $10M and still look like we’re treading water).  He’s definitely assembled a team in his vision; defensively gifted, a bullpen full of power arms.  Next step; power rotation.

Riggleman is doing the best with what he has; I don’t believe other managers could do much better.  Most people believe we have probably the 28th or 29th best collection of talent in the majors, but we’re achieving better than 29th place.

Q: Besides Harper, which rookie impressed you during Spring Training?

A: I cannot disagree with Ladson’s selection of Cole Kimball as “most impressive rookie.”  I would not be surprised to see him called up in 2011 and to start getting high-leverage appearances.