Nationals Arm Race

Well, Adam Kilgore beat me to the punch on this post earlier today, but I’ll still post my sentiments.

Scott Olsen put in yet another forgettable performance last night (gamer/box), lasting only 5 outs while giving up NINE earned runs in an ugly outing.  His era rose from 4.91 to 5.88, his whip rose from 1.43 to 1.53 and his ERA+ dropped from an already mediocre 84 to 70.  He drops to 3-8 on the season and the team is 5-10 in his starts.

The problem with Olsen is that his “highs” are not balancing out the lows.   In 15 starts he’s pitched into the 7th inning twice (including one gem against Atlanta where he gave up 2 hits in 7 1/3 inning) but he’s had “meltdown” games no less than five times.  (“meltdown” being defined as a game where the pitcher gives up at least as many runs as innings pitched).

Olsen arrived to the team with a history and a less-than-stellar fitness routine (he was a half-a-pack a day smoker).  We havn’t heard a single peep about any attitude or smoking issues this year and I was impressed that he accepted last year’s non-tender and subsequently signed on for less than what he would have earned in arbitration to start the  season.  I’m less impressed with the results for this team.

Thankfully for Olsen, he won’t earn an outright release in the next few weeks, probably just getting sent to the bullpen or just shelved as Yunesky Maya gets called up to naturally make the 9/7 start on a normal 4 days rest.  But, with an expected crowded race for next year’s rotation, he’s quickly earning himself a non-tender after the season is over.

Who do you think the Nats call up 9/1?  We’re at 40/40 right now on the 40-man roster, but could move Willingham and Strasburg to the 60-day DL to make room for a couple more people.  Here’s what I think happens:

SPs: Maya gets the callup, perhaps not on 9/1 but soon enough to start getting some starts.

RPs: Balester and Severino get callbacks.  No 40-man moves required, gives a couple more arms to help out in a tired bullpen

C: Ramos gets called back up to spell Nieves here and there and get some more work at the MLB level.

That’s it.  I don’t see an obvious candidate to add to the 40-man to bring up.  There is talk of Espinosa coming up but he’s a better candidate to go to the AFL and spend more time in AAA learning how to become Desmond‘s double play combination.  DC-local favorite Josh Wilkie has had a great year as a AAA reliever but there might not be enough work for him in a 9 or 10-man bullpen.

Over the weekend, the Nationals took the first post-Strasburg step towards shoring up the 2011 rotation by extending FA-to-be Livan Hernandez through 2011.  No published financial figures but various tweets and rumors put it at $1M base plus a ton of incentives.  If this is indeed the case then his deal is an absolute steal considering his performances this year.  He’s pitching at a 2.7 WAR, which is valued at $10.8M per season per fangraphs.

(Small tangent; click on the fangraphs.com link to see who our 3rd most valuable starter by WAR is; yes indeed its Craig Stammen, demoted to the bullpen despite having the 3rd best advanced stats of any of our starters.  Unfair to the poor guy.  Perhaps he’ll get his chance again in 2011).

Livan has been an integral reason why the Nats are not clamoring towards another 59-loss season, having come out of nowhere (i.e., a minor league contract in spring training) to lead the staff.  He’s given us 18 quality starts in 27 outings, pitched into the 7th inning 12 times, and is averaging6.5 innings a start.  the team is 14-13 in his starts (42-62 in everyone else’s starts).

Here’s how 2011 is now shaping up, with no FA pickups (and not considering any of our AA prospects)

• Locks: Zimmermann, Marquis, LHernandez

• Considered (in order): Maya, Lannan, Olsen, Detwiler, Wang

• DL for 2011: Strasburg

• Minors/relievers/Left out: Atilano, Martin, Chico, Mock, Martis, Thompson, Stammen

Strasburg‘s injury will change the way the Nats approach the offseason and the 2011 rotation.  Instead of having Strasburg leading the rotation, I believe this injury will result in the exploration of the FA market, the resigning of Livan Hernandez sooner than later, and the end of the “injury test cases” for Rizzo and Lerner.

Here’s what I’ve got for 2011 right now:

• Locks: Zimmermann, Marquis

• Considered: Maya, Lannan, Olsen, Detwiler, Wang

• FAs to be: Livan Hernandez

• DL for 2011: Strasburg

• Minors/relievers/Left out: Atilano, Martin, Chico, Mock, Martis, Thompson, Stammen

I think the rotation might be filled out exactly in the “considered” order, unless we resign Livan.  Right now I give Lannan the slight edge over Olsen and Detwiler based on past performances and pay.  I think Olsen is pitching his way off the team, and until Detwiler puts together 3 healthy starts he can’t be counted on.  I’m curious to see what Maya does during his call up and I think he’s a lock for the rotation next year.  Wang?  If he doesn’t show some progress why would we pay his freight next year?  IF we can get him in arbitration for a veteran minimum then he may be worth it.  $2M?  no way.

Atilano, Martin, Chico, Mock and Martis seem to be as close to your AAA rotation next year as can be.  Martin and Chico might be done; too old, too little production at the major league level, and in the way of AA promotion candidates like Peacock, Milone and the guys we got in the Guzman trade (Roark and Tatusko).

So, what does a rotation of Zimmermann, Marquis, Livan, Maya and Lannan get you in 2011?  70 wins?  more?  less?  Do we need to look into free agency?

“Never leave town when Strasburg pitches” is the general lesson learned this past weekend.  If you do, be ready to return to 100s of blog postings, rants, old-school comments from Ron Dibble, and other opinions.  Its official today, Strasburg heads to the DL with a strained flexor tendon.  The umpire of the game says he heard an audible pop and Strasburg really looked like he was in some serious discomfort. One MRI inconclusive, so now they’re going with a reactive-fluid injection to more clearly see the damage.

All I can say is, the two words “Tommy John” seem to be in play here.

If there is a silver lining, it may be one of the following observations:

– If the nats shut him down for the rest of the year (and honestly, they really should at this point), he’s still gotten in enough innings to show some progress for the year (55 in the minors, 68 in the majors).  Certainly he did not hit the team goal of 150 combined innings … but then again 150 would put him into “Verducci Effect” territory.

– This move easily allows us to bring up Jordan Zimmermann, who has been just killing minor league hitters during his extended rehab, without having to sit one of our established starters (though, I still maintain that Stammen was unfairly demoted from the rotation; look at his advanced stats on fangraphs and you’ll see he’s basically our 2nd best starter behind Strasburg).

We’re moving forward with a rotation of LHernandez, Olsen, Lannan, Marquis, and Zimmermann for now.  Detwiler seems done for the  year.  I can see Olsen possibly getting dumped (and saving a few $100k starts) to make room for Maya in a couple weeks.  Wang continues to be MIA.

Scott Olsen‘s 12th start of the season eventually ended in a 10-2 nats loss last night, though that scoreline wasn’t totally his fault.  Strange start for Olsen, who absolutely cruised through the first 5 innings (one hit and one HBP through five, lots of groundball outs, very few hard-hit balls).  He was sitting at around 60 pitches and looked like he might put up a solid 8 inning start.  Suddenly the top of the 6ths starts pinch-hit homer, then a triple, then a walk of Heyward (hardly someone you can blame pitching carefully to with a guy on third and none down).  And he gets the hook!?

Why?  Why give him the hook after two guys hit good balls in a row.  So that a guy we signed on a minor league contract earlier this year (Peralta) can come in, let both inherited runners score on back to back doubles, and ruin the game for Olsen?  That was unproductive.  Sometimes I think Riggleman over-manages and over thinks his situations.

Olsen now sits at 3-5 an ugly 5.14 era and 1.44 whip.  But his advanced stats look better.  FIP=3.51 and xFIP=4.07, which is actually 2nd best of any starter we’ve used more than once the rotation (behind Strasburg).  His BABIP is .320, meaning he’s slightly unlucky on balls in play.   He’s had three horribly games on the year that have destroyed his era/whip numbers.  But he also had a string of 4 games and 25+ innings with 2 earned runs allowed.

I think Olsen’s spot in the rotation is safe for now, but either he or Lannan probably gets the hook when we bring up Maya for a few spot starts.  But at least he’s earning a contract tender in arbitration proceedings in the off season.

8/14 made five (5) starts now on the season for key off-season acquisition Jason Marquis.  That’s 5 starts, 5 times he’s given up as many earned runs as he had innings pitched, 5 times he has failed to pitch out of the fourth inning (!!) that’s 5 losses and 5 times the nats were completely out of it before they had a chance to get going.  2 years, $15M for a guy who wasn’t supposed to be an ace but was supposed to be a quality, eat-innings, pitch decently well as a #3 or #4 starters.  Certainly that’s what he’s been for years for various teams.

What has happened?  He was basically throwing meatball pitches up there against major league hitters.  No sink, no movement, just mid-to-upper 80s meatballs that were hit and hit hard.  Is it still physical?  He did have a minor surgical procedure a couple months ago.  Is it mental?  You need bravado to be successful in the major leagues and he might be short on it right now.

But, what should we do?  Do you sit him?  Put him in the bullpen?  DFA him?  Ask him to go to the minors (where he hasn’t been since 2003)? Replace him with someone else?

I know we have probably better options than Marquis right now.  Stammen pitched well in his last few starts and didn’t deserve to lose his rotation spot honestly.  Zimmermann is ready to come up; there’s only so much dominance of AAA pitchers that is needed.  Maya is a pro and only needs a few warmup starts.  Mock is on a rehab assignment.  Chico pitched well in a spot start against the Dodgers earlier this year.

However, we are committed to 2011 with the guy.  And Instead of turning $15M into a complete waste, i say let him work it out, let him take his lumps as he essentially repeats spring training in August against teams in the pennant race.  Its not as if the Nats are going anywhere.  The season is now about 75% complete, we’re in last place and we’re not getting any better.  All we’re playing for at this point is draft positioning (currently 8th!  we’re getting better, er i mean worse).

Of course, I’ll bet the Nats invent some nebulous “soft tissue” error soon on Marquis (my guess; elbow strain) that gives them an excuse to 15-day DL the guy and put someone better in the rotation.  It is the best solution honestly; he saves face and saves his ego and can write the whole season off to a tough injury.  We’ll see.

As the team starts to get some clarity in their rotation (guys coming back from injury and replacing AAAA starters), I was thinking about our 2011 rotation.

2011 rotation competition (assuming everyone is healthy).  Listing all 40-man starters.

• Locks (in order): Strasburg, Zimmermann, Marquis
• Heavily Considered (in order): Maya, Wang, Detwiler, Lannan, Olsen
• FAs to be: LHernandez
• Minors/Left out: Stammen, Atilano, Martin, Chico, Mock, Martis, Thompson

I can’t imagine us actually going with the first 5 names on this list, simply because they’re all righties.  We have several decently accomplished lefties in the mix and you would have to think at least one of them will make the cut in 2011.  The team really likes Detwiler, but Lannan has been our most effective pitcher over the past few seasons.

Some other thoughts on the names on this list.

• Wang.  If he can ever regain his form when he was winning 19 games for the Yankees, then he absolutely has to be in the conversation.  But, in reality he’s no closer to returning to the majors now in August than he was when we signed him in February.  And that’s ridiculous.
• Marquis.  What the hell is wrong with this guy?  4 runs before recording an out??  $15M absolutely flushed down the drain so far.  I was certainly a proponent of this signing but you have to wonder at this point if he’s just mentally forgotten how to pitch and compete.  But, he’s signed for next year at a high figure so he has to be part of the conversation.
• Olsen.  I can see them non-tendering him again and then subsequently seeing him signing elsewhere.  I have a feeling he’s going to get really pissed if the Nats cut his starts to save money.
• Livan.  I can see him being a post-trade deadline waiver wire trade.  No way anyone is claiming him, even given his numbers.  He’s a tough case; he doesn’t overpower people but he gets results.  He’s like the next version of Jamie Moyer.   He’s absolutely been our Ace this year but will he even get offered a contract for next year?

Convenient, to say the least, that Detwiler has just been put on the 15-day DL with a hip strain.   This now makes three underperforming Nats pitchers who have suddenly taken ill just as they were set to be replaced/demoted (Atilano, Martin and now Detwiler).  In fairness, Martin has since had back surgery and moved to the 60-day DL and obviously had a serious injury.  But Detwiler?  Seems like coincident timing.

I guess I shouldn’t be complaining, since it makes a tough decision the Nats were possibly to face a bit easier.  Marquis comes off the DL and goes today for the first time since april.

Current Rotation: Livan, Marquis, Strasburg, Olsen and Lannan.

on the DL: Mock, Martin, Detwiler and Atilano

in the minors and coming soon: Zimmermann and Maya.

I’ll guess the next thing to happen will be Olsen and Lannan making way for the Zimmermann and Maya (or perhaps Strasburg reaching an innings limit and Lannan  staying in the rotation).  Olsen gets significant bonuses right now for each additional start (to the tune of $250k for his next couple starts, then $100k there after for the rest of the season).  Not that I think the Nats are cheap, but i’m sure they’ll find some justification for limiting his starts and their payroll outlay.

As it stands, they’re getting closer to the 2011 rotation they’d probably like to see out on the field (Strasburg, Zimmermann, Marquis, Maya and Lannan).  And we all think this would be a pretty good rotation.  Spring training 2011 can’t come soon enough!

Zuckerman has a good article about the conundrum the nats are about to face with respect to all the starting pitchers they have coming back or soon-to-be ready to pitch in the Majors.

Current rotation: Livan, Detwiler, Stammen, Olsen, Lannan.  In roughly that order of performance.

– Strasburg is coming back from the DL next tuesday and probably sends Stammen back to the minors for the rest of the year, possibly forever.  Stammen is just to inconsistent to depend on.  He’ll go 3 straight fantastic games then blow up.

– Marquis is soon to be off the rehab assignment (he’s now got 5 minor league starts and you only get 30 days of rehab before having to be recalled or optioned).  I don’t know who gives way for him; perhaps Olsen since Olsen has been optioned already this year and hasn’t exactly lit it up since his return from injury.

– Zimmermann has been removed from the 60-day and has been optioned to AAA; he probably gets 3-4 more starts down there and replaces Strasburg when the phenom either gets his next DL stint or reaches his innings limit.

– Maya (our new Cuban signing) just got assigned to the gulf coast league, but he wasn’t signed to a $6M contract and placed on the 40-man to pitch in the minors.  This team needs to know how he’ll pitch next year.

– Wang has yet to even start throwing by all accounts and is looking more and more like a waste of money.  Too bad.

– Livan could be a post-waiver wire trade candidate to a contender needing a rubber-armed 5th starter.  We’ve done it before (netting Chico and Mock from Arizona in 2006) but that would be cold hearted for a guy who has saved the Nats season in terms of starting pitching.  But, we could always sign him again in the off season and his removal would pave the way for a slot for one of the above.

– Other SPs on the 40-man: Atilano (dl), Martin (dl), Mock (dl), Chico (27 and seemingly stuck in AAA), Martis (23 but having a mediocre AAA season) and Thompson (young but absolutely sucking in AA) all seem to be non-factors now and going forward. In fact I’d be surprised to see half these guys in the organization next year as we promote a bunch of slightly-older AA pitchers upwards (including the two starters we got from Texas for Guzman).

You can never have enough starting pitching.

Prediction/hope for 2011 rotation: Strasburg, Zimmermann, Marquis, Maya and then whoever wins from Detwiler Olsen and Lannan in spring training next eyar).

boss