Nationals Arm Race

We have a small break this week in news, thanks to the essential finalization of the active roster days ahead of opening day. So lets talk Fantasy baseball. As always, this is a niche post so feel free to move on if you’re not a player.

It didn’t look like my league was going to get its act together for Fantasy Baseball this year, since we bailed last year and the momentum was lagging to have someone organize again, but once we actually got the right cell number for the commissioner, we got our act together and drafted last weekend.

I had the 10th draft spot out of 10 teams, which I’ve come to believe absolutely sucks as a draft position for two main reasons:

• there’s a finite number of really top end players in the sport now so you miss out in round 1
• More importantly … you go nearly 20 picks between selections, meaning if there’s a run on a position, you cannot participate. This comes into play literally in round 3 for me. Read on.
• On the bright side … i didn’t have to really focus on availability and strategy for large chunks of time, which allowed me to freely insult the picks of my competitors, always the best part of any draft.

My drafting strategy is basically this:

• Focus on middle infielders first
• do not overpay for a 1B; there’s plenty of them.
• Do not overpay for SPs; there’s value in the middle rounds
• Focus on NL starters. Preferably from the NL west
• Get 5 closers and stream them
• Draft a catcher last since there’s only like 2 worth drafting.

Our categories:
– Hitting: Runs, HRs, RBI, SBs, OBP and OPS. No Batting Average.
– Pitching: Losses, Ks, Saves, ERA, Whip, QS. no wins.

So, here’s how my team went. I’ll just group the picks in pairs since that’s how I ended up evaluating them.

1-2: I went with JP Ramirez and Bryce Harper 10 and 11. Two solid hitters, somewhat of a flier/upside guy in Harper. In all the time Harper played for the Nats, I never got him. Lets see if he can build on his pretty solid 2020 season. Ramirez fills a pretty decent position (3B) which, If I had been more in the middle, maybe I reach for Machado in the mid-2nd round to get 3B/SS eligibility. The top 6 go Tatis-Acuna-deGrom-Betts-Soto-Trout; I tell you what, if I was in the #6 spot and I got Trout i’d be ecstatic.

3-4: I got Clayton Kershaw and Bo Bichette. A mixture of old and new-school; there was a huge run on starters in the middle of both round 2 and 3, so Kershaw was the 10th starter selected. Maybe I should have picked Snell over him, but my rankings didn’t pop him into my brain. As for Bichette … he was the 8th SS picked and I like his upside just a tad more than Corey Seager (who went 2 spots afterwards). Not terribly happy with these players, but what can you do.

5-6: I wanted a 2B and it was a little early for Altuve, so i went with Gleyber Torres, who also has SS availability. That’s nice. Then I didn’t like the looks of some of the alternatives in the area; round 5-6 has a lot of 2nd tier infielders but i was already full up. So I grabbed rookie phenom Randy Arozarena. We’ll see if the hype matches the performance from last off-season.

7-8: still need hitters, still don’t like the starters here. I look up and one of the guys I was looking hard at for round 5 as a 2B is still sitting there: Cavan Biggio. That’s a sign; if you wanted the guy 20 picks ago and he’s still there, then he’s a steal. He’s also got 3B and OF availability. Like that. Then I grab BPA outfielder, who turns out to be Austin Meadows.

9-10: I now need some pitchers; I basically have my entire hitting lineup set. But that’s ok; its part of my strategy. So I grab the next best pitcher available at this point in Zack Greinke, then notice a pretty solid 1B guy in Matt Olson. Not bad. I’m a little worried about Greinke being in the AL and being old, but he is a Quality Start machine (which we have as a category instead of Wins).

11-12: At this point I now have just 2 starters and zero relievers. I’m going to start grabbing almost entirely Arms here out.. I get Charlie Morton and Julio Urias, two solid NL starters for good teams.

13-14: I get two closers: Rafael Montero and Jake McGee. Closers for Seattle and San Francisco, two crummy teams. Sometimes that’s a good thing (bad teams desperately depend on closers to get them to the finish line), and sometimes that’s a bad thing (if the team is *too* bad, they’ll rarely be in a position to use their closer).

15-16: Two more closers: Emilio Pagan and Alex Colome. Closer for San Diego (which should be good) and for Minnesota (though oddly Colome is not listed as the slam-dunk closer for the Twins despite excellent numbers last year). We’ll have to keep an eye out here.

17-18: From here I want one more closer, 3 starters and a catcher. So I grab Two starters here: Jose Urquidy and David Price. Price is a crapshoot, but at least he’s in the NL West. Urquidy could be a steal; he really could be Houston’s ace. Post drafting, we find out that Price got beat out by Dustin May for the 5th starter spot … so i’m quickly hitting the waiver wire.

19-20: I get a starter crapshoot in Framber Valdez, who was supposed to be a top starter for Houston but has a finger injury and will miss a bit of time (but I do get DL spots; once he hits the DL I will hit the waiver wire). I also grab a 5th closer in Anthony Bass from Miami. I now have 3/5ths of Houston’s rotation; interesting.

21: with the last pick in the draft, Mr. Irrelevant I get BPA catcher in Sean Murphy, who actually seems to have really good numbers. Hmm; maybe i’ll actually start a Catcher this year (I’ve gone with stretches before where literally i’ve had no good C options and have just left that position blank).

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I’m not enamored of my team this year. I think i’ve got too many veterans who might be a season past their fantasy prime. kind of like the Nats. I may be hitting the waiver wire early and often for SP and RPs. I have 5 closers, but they’re relatively weak. I dunno; not my best draft. Team Summary:

Hitters: Ramirez, Harper, Bichette, Arozorena, Torres, Meadows, Olson, Biggio, Murphy

SP: Greinke, Kershaw, Urias, Morton, Urquidy, Valdez (DL), Price (soon to be dropped)

RP: Montero, Colome, McGee, Pagan, Bass

One major, significant story line that Nats fans have been talking (and fretting) about all spring was decided quickly and decisively on 3/27/21, when the Nats made a slew of moves that greatly shaped their opening day (and longer) roster.

3/27/21 moves announced:

• Jordy Mercer added
• Hernán Pérez added
• Jake Noll DFA’d
• Carter Kieboom optioned
• Luis Garcia optioned
• Sam Clay optioned
• Kyle McGowin optioned
• Yadiel Hernández optioned
• Yasmany Tomás released
• T.J. McFarland released

(Note; I have updated the big board for all these moves at this point, as well as prior options/releases to this point).

First, lets talk about the obvious; the Infield Impact , both at the MLB level and below. Kieboom was given all spring to win the 3B job and failed. Furthermore, Garcia’s numbers last season did not merit his being given the starter job either. I think the team is making the right move (even if it took them a bit too long to adjust) by sending both young players down and giving the big team the best chance to win.

Kieboom’s luster as a prospect is now basically shot. I would not be surprised in the least to see him flounder in AAA and struggle to recover from the disappointment of being cut, which will further prevent him from recovering his prospect shine. Garcia was always over-promoted to me, and needs a year of seasoning in AAA.

Presumably the starting lineup will now feature Josh Harrison at 3B and Starlin Castro playing 2B (or perhaps the reverse). Getting Harrison in the lineup certainly improves the offense, likely at the expense of some 3B defense. How far the team has fallen from having Anthony Rendon providing Gold Glove defense and middle-of-the-order steady offense for half a decade.

Since Castro is struggling with some injuries, and since the team needs someone who can play SS as a backup … it was always a certainty that the team would carry a SS-capable player. I was hoping it would NOT be Garcia, because I want him to play every day … and now he will. I figured honestly the team would carry Perez, but Mercer is somewhat of a surprise. I’m guessing Castro may face a DL trip, which then would put Perez in as a starter, Mercer as the defensive replacement … and when everyone is healthy again Mercer may get the Axe.

To make room for the two new additions, Noll mercifully gets the DFA axe. This was the obvious move; Noll has been #1 on my “next player to get DFA’d to make room on the 40-man” roster for the better part of two years. I think he’s a nice story, making the team as such a long shot, and i’m surprised he made it so long on the roster. Odds are high that he’ll pass through waivers and accept the outright, but the odds of him returning to the majors seem slim.

The cascading effect of sending both Garcia and Kieboom to AAA, where they will be playing full time, has to be crushing to a slew of long-serving minor league vets in the org. Now there’s no room for the likes of Cole Freeman and Adrian Sanchez to play full time, to say nothing of several MLFA signings who seem like they’re a few days from getting cut (namely, Osvaldo Duarte, Ali Castillo, and Humberto Arteaga. That being said, the infield at AAA projects to have a very interesting set of prospects: KJ Harrison, Garcia, YaselAntuna and Kieboom. It’ll be fun watching AAA boxes in May.

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Now lets talk about the Outfield Impact. Fan favorite Hernandez gets sent to AAA; some fans are already shocked that he gets cut based on his hitting this spring, but to me it’s pretty obvious. The team needs a spare outfielder who can actually play CF and that isn’t Hernandez. But it also may be that the injury to Castro forced the team’s hand to carry Mercer at the expense of Hernandez. Maybe we’ll see him back up soon to cover for a corner OF injury, or if (when) Ryan Zimmerman gets hurt.

Hernandez clearly has made Tomas expendable; he’s given his release. He just didn’t show much this spring (7-30 with no extra base hits) and the team has other options.

Gerardo Parra clearly isn’t ready so he will remain in roster limbo; it should be interesting to see what the team does with him once he’s ready to go, and who makes way. Does he replace Mercer like for like? Does he go to AAA and play for a bit? How does he fit into this team?

Speaking of outfielders in AAA, Hernandez will presumably man LF down there, as Tocci will man CF. That leaves just one OF position for a slew of org guys, and playing time will be tight for the likes of Rhett Wisemann and Nick Banks if Parra is on the roster. We’ll see. Maybe they’ll all just juggle DH duties.

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Lastly, lets talk briefly about what we now know about the Pitching situation. We now seem to know at least how the “2nd lefty bullpen option” competition has shaken out: Clay lost and was demoted, McFarland lost and was released, and the team is waiting a day or two to make a 40-man corresponding move/DL assignment to add Luis Avilan. Makes sense and all seems logical.

The MLB bullpen now though still seems light: The big board shows only 6 relievers on the Washington roster right now, though Fedde and Voth seem like they’re both now being carried. That puts them at 8 … but we know that Harris and his blood clot will cause a short DL trip. So stay tuned for more machinations on the pitching. I’ll bet we’ll see at least one more RHP reliever addition (Javy Guerra?), but that’ll require another 40-man/60-day DL move. It is interesting that McGowin was sent down; to me this means he lost out to Guerra as a middle relief option.

Lastly, two starters remain in limbo: Armenteros and Romero. Romero the far more interesting case; where the F is he? Zero IP all spring, zero indication if he’s a starter or reliever. For a guy with such a track record/history it just leads to nothing but (bad) speculation. We’ll find out soon enough; they have to do something with him in the next few days.

So, lots of moves, lots of clarity already, with a bit more to come.

Post Publishing update: about 20 minutes after publishing, the team made the next logical bullpen move, adding Luis Avilan and DFA’ing Dakota Bacus. As noted above as a likely possibility but officially made today.

The 2021 season is almost upon us, which means that the pre-2021 “prospect season” is now winding to a close. One of the last two major prospect-analysis shops in MLBpipeline.com released their rankings for the Nats, so as we’ve done in the past lets take a look and comment on their rankings versus the collective hive of other analysts.

MLBPipeline’s analysis is primarily the work of three people: Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo, and Sam Dykstra (formerly Mike Rosenbaum, who is now a baseball writer free agent apparently).

We’ve now seen Nats rankings from BA, BP, MLBpipeline, Espn/McDaniel, Athletic/Law, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Prospects1500, and Fantrax. The only major shop left is Fangraphs/Longenhagen, who is nearly done releasing team-by-team rankings, and when he does we’ll publish a post for his list like this one.

Thoughts on the MLBpipeline list are below; I won’t repeat the actual list of the top 30; that’s more easily seen here, with links to video and scouting reports by clicking on the player names. There’s been a ton of movement from the last time they ranked the system at the end of December in the wake of the Josh Bell trade.

• At the top, Cavalli over Rutledge: they’ve switched these guys at the top since December. Rutledge is given a grade-70 fastball was also recently named the Nats prospect with the best FB, but doesn’t have the secondary pitch depth that Cavalli has.
• Same top 3 as basically everyone else: Cavalli, Rutledge, Henry.
• Antuna up to #4; three months ago they had him at #10, and this ranking is really in line with many of the other shops. I continue to believe he could be an impactful player this year at the MLB level, despite being optioned officially over the weekend to AAA with the team’s first cuts of 2021.
• De La Rosa jumped up to #6; they’re the most bullish of the shops on this kid. All we have to go on is crummy 2019 GCL numbers when he was 17, so this will be an illuminating year.
• Recent IFA signing Armando Cruz debuts at #7 … wow. That’s pretty frigging high for a 16yr old, no matter what $$ he just got.
• Like most shops, they’ve dropped Denaburg nearly out of the top 10 at this point. I’d like to point out that Denaburg will turn 22 in August, is in his fourth pro season and has a grand total of 20 1/3rd professional innings pitched. I get that he’s been unlucky with injury, but man I’d like to see something out of the guy in 2021.
• Infante comes in at #13, in line with other shops but drastically increased by MLBpipeline since Dec, when they had him #24. What changed? Did they suddenly decide his scouting reports merited this drastic increase?
• Romero unceremoniously dumped from #7 in December all the way to #18. #18 in a prospect list for a farm system is basically saying, “this guy is lucky to have a AAA job.” By way of comparison, Tres Barrera is #19; does anyone consider Barrera a prospect anymore? I get the ranking; his velocity and performance in the majors last year was really concerning; if he can’t cut it as an effective starter, does he even have the arm to be an effective reliever? The team seems to be turning him back into a starter; does he have the stuff to be an effective starter? What happened to the guy with two 60-grade pitches coming out of college?
• Braymer comes in at #21. If I were to hide draft pedigree and signing bonuses, and just put Braymer and Romero’s career accomplishments side by side … how in god’s name do you rank Braymer below him? One guy has a significant minor league pedigree of accomplishment and actually succeeded in 2020’s MLB appearances, while the other guy …. didn’t.
• Fuentes: another guy who I feel gets downgraded when evaluators look at this bonus amount versus his results. He’s a worm-burner with a heavy fastball that just gets people out, at every level. If I told you that, at the age of 21, the Nat’s had a 1st rounder reach AA and put up a 2.69 ERA and a 63/15 K/BB ratio in 63 innings (Fuentes’ 2019 age-21 season AA numbers), we’d be talking about him being the next Strasburg. But since its Fuentes … he’s barely a prospect. He’s a guy I hope proves the pundits wrong.
• Schaller’s ranking takes a nose dive, from #16 to #27. I’m not sure why; he was decent in 2019 in Low-A, he’s got a good pedigree (a starter from Vanderbilt). He missed some 2019 time with injury, but it wasn’t arm related. Why dump him so far? I think he could make a statement in 2021.
• Sanchez, like with BA’s ranking, is thrown in at #30 almost entirely based on the spin rate on his curve (3,000 rpms, which is MLB elite). He’ll use his age-18 season hopefully to pitch in the GCL and impress the staff.

I’m a bit late to the game on this: Luke Erickson already posted his 2 cents on this at Nationals Prospects.

MLB has taken advantage of the fact that they now rule the Minor Leagues like a Lannister and will be implementing several rule changes this season. Jayson Stark had an interesting reaction here at the Athletic, and perhaps the simplest list of the rule changes by league is at MLBTraderumors.com (as always; they cut right to the chase).

So, what do I think? Well before reading further I guarantee one of my “takes” isn’t going to match yours for one or more of these proposed rule changes. Baseball fan opinions all exist on a sliding scale, where one extreme is the Pure Traditionalists (who are still pissed that the league went to divisional play in 1969, to say nothing of the Wild Card, 5-man rotations, the introduction of WAR, or anything we’re about to talk about), while on the other side are the Ultra-Modern Baseball fans, who embrace and seek out analytical advantages and are always looking for disruptive ways to improve the game. You can be on the “traditionalist side” of neutral and be ok with Wild Cards, but be against the DH in the NL, and you’ll still be called an idiot by your grandpa. So, take the below with a grain of salt if you’re on the conservative side.

Here’s the new rule changes, by league, being implemented in the Minors:

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AAA will Increase the Size of the Bases.

I can’t see why anyone would argue with this; we’re all used to seeing the “side base” in amateur leagues created specifically to avoid collissions and broken ankles from clumsy base runners. They claim that a 3″ square increase will somehow lead to noticeable stolen base increases … but somehow I doubt that. As we already know, stolen bases are out of favor with analytical types because simple Run-Expectancy analysis shows that the break even point for SB success rate is somewhere in the 75% range, and only elite runners can break that rate. Ricky Henderson‘s career SB success rate was 80%, to give you an idea of how hard it is to keep your rate above 75%. My Verdict: go for it.

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AA will Set Limits on Shifts

The initial rule will state that all four defined infielders must have their feet on the dirt. They can still shift, and put the 3rd baseman on the other side of 2nd … but he has to be in the defined “infield.” If this doesn’t have an impact, they also opened up the possibility of even more radical shift-banning, basically legislating that two infielders must be on either side of 2B, which basically would eliminate the shifting overloading we’ve been seeing.

In the past I have defended the shift, noting that it generally gets out hard-headed lefty pull hitters who refuse to adjust and take advantage of a wide open left side of the field by simply going the other way or bunting (as Robinson Cano did quite ably in this video)… listen to the announcers in this video; they basically say “its about time! How many years have we watched this with the shift…”). EXACTLY.

However.

I’m starting to come back around a bit. Why? Because offense is so down. Anyone who has played slow-pitch softball knows how much offensive oppression a 4th outfielder strategically deployed can do to even a skilled hitter. I think i’m now ok with some slight modifications to the shift rule, and the initial rule is a great start. you want to play 3 infielders on the right side against a Ted Williams-like pull hitter? That’s fine; but they’ve all gotta be on the dirt and you can’t stick the 3B in short RF. My Verdict: go for it.

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High-A will see the Step Off rule implemented for pitchers. Simply put, they have to disenage with the rubber to attempt a pick off. This rule was done in the Atlantic League in 2019 and apparently succeeded in its intent to increase the running game in the sport (it led to 70% more stolen base attempts).

I think I like this rule, but for a different reason…. no more will we see lefties basically balking and picking guys off first and not getting called on it. Over and Over we see illegal lefty moves to first (see Andy Pettitte’s entire career and this slo-mo video)and rarely do we see them getting called on it; it basically has eliminated the running game for lefties just under the threat of a fake move to first. One caveat; appaerntly the step-off-quick-snap-throw for lefties is also out … which I don’t get. Isn’t that a step-off? Maybe they put this part back, because otherwise lefties seem to have almost zero way to stop the running game. My Verdict: go for it.

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Low-A will see, in addition to the step-off rule, the 2 Pickoff attempt rule. You can only attempt 3 pickoffs per plate appearance; if the 3rd attempt is unsuccessful, a balk is called and the runners advance. This is the most radical rule change for me, but I understand the reasoning. Go to any game and if a pitcher throws over more than a couple times the crowd boos and gets restless. It goes towards the general goal of speeding up the game, and goes towards eliminating a rather cynical method of suppressing the running game (that by tiring out the speedy potential base stealer by making him dive in over and over). I think i’ve talked myself into it. My Verdict: go for it.

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Low-A West will Adopt on-field timers … which will just codify rules already in place, so My Verdict is just enforce the rules already.

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Low-A South East will adopt Robot Umpires, technically known as the Automated Ball-Strike System or ABS, to standardize the strike zone. Yes. Finally. Basically the ABS system makes a call and the home plate umpire relays it, filling in if the machine breaks down.

The challenge with an automated strike zone is defining the zone. I think all baseball fans are really, really tired of seeing obvious balls called strikes and vice versa (see Hernandez, Angel), especially when the call seems to be punitive for some other action (see this call in the 2019 World Series when umpire Lance Barkesdale clearly “took away” a strike-three call). But, what we’ve learned from automated strike zones is that the rule-book defined zone makes for some really, really hard pitches to hit (98mph heater at your chest on the corner? yeah right). But, at some point I think it has to happen. My verdict; continue the experimenting.

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Wow. So i’m in favor of all the rules. Hmm. I wonder what that makes me? Oh yeah; a baseball fan who’s tired of seeing 3.5 hr games of three true outcomes.