Nationals Arm Race

One of the big 4 of prospect rankings (BA, MLBpipeline, Fangraphs, and Keith Law) published their rankings this week, by way of their annual Handbook. Thanks to Luke Erickson who posted a 2-part post listing the names (part1 and part2). He also had his own reactions and thoughts.

Here’s the list from 1-30 for reference.

Last Name	First Name	Position	Acquisition	Bonus	BA Handbook rank
Wood	James	OF (Corner)	2021 2nd	2600000	1
Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)	2020 1st	4300000	2
Green	Elijah	OF (CF)	2022 1st	6500000	3
Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)	2020 1st	3027000	4
House	Brady	SS/3B	2021 1st	5000000	5
Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)	2022 IFA	4900000	6
Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)	2022 IFA	1700000	7
De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)	2018 IFA	300000	8
Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)	2019 1st	3450000	9
White	T.J.	OF (Corner)	2021 5th	400000	10
Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)	2022 2nd	1734800	11
Cruz	Armando	SS	2021 IFA	3900000	12
Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)	2020 2nd	2000000	13
Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)	2020 5th	100000	14
Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)	2019 IFA	1250000	15
Ward	Thad	RHP (Starter)	2018 5th	275000	16
Quintana	Roismar	OF (CF)	2019 IFA	820000	17
Cronin	Matt	LHP (Reliever)	2019 4th	464500	18
Pineda	Israel	C	2016 IFA	450000	19
Ferrer	Jose	LHP (Reliever)	2017 IFA	?	20
Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)	2020 NDFA	20000	21
Irvin	Jake	RHP (Starter)	2018 4th	550000	22
Lee	Evan	LHP (Starter)	2018 15th	125000	23
Lipscomb	Trey	3B	2022 3rd	758500	24
Millas	Drew	C	2019 7th	170000	25
Carrillo	Gerardo	RHP (Reliever)	2016 IFA	75000	26
Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)	2021 2nd	1750000	27
Cate	Tim	LHP (Starter)	2018 2nd	986200	28
Ramirez	Aldo	RHP (Starter)	2018 IFA	450000	29
Frizzell	Will	1B	2021 8th	179800	30

And here’s my reactions. Note: the BA top 10 was previously published on 12/1/22 and nothing in the top 10 has changed. So, comments on the top 10 will sound familiar.

• the top 8 are basically the same as anyone else’s top 8 for the system.
• Hassell over Green, otherwise consistent with the last few rankings.
• Rutledge at #9. I won’t go into it again. Relevant stats: 4th pro season, 4.90 ERA and 1.39 WHIP as a 25yr old in Low-A. $3.45M draft bonus, 1st rounder in 2019, and now on the 40-man.
• As Prospects1500 did, T.J. White bumped up all the way to #10.
• Cole Henry down at #13. Fangraphs had him at #2 in July.
• Mitchell Parker at #14, as compared to Prospects1500, which had him buried at #27, or MLBpipeline, which had him similarly buried in the off-season. I like the respect here.
• Rule 5 pickup Thad Ward at #16 now in the system. An indictment for sure, as Erickson noted.
• Matt Cronin at #18, when others have had him well below. Is a lefty reliever specialist a good prospect, or a fungible replacement level player?
• Israel Pineda, at #19 in the system. After years of underperforming, he hit well at AA this year, moved to AAA briefly and was added to the 40-man. Is this the real deal?
• Jake Irvin. #22 here, #35 at Prospects1500, and outside the top 30 at the last MLB ranking. I mean, I guess if you’re scouting the score line his AA line this year wasn’t great (4.79 ERA), but his WHIP was decent, his K/BB good, and after years away thanks to injury and Covid it was a promising season. Now he’s on the 40-man and he’s gonna get MLB starts this year. Is this a #22 prospect?
• Evan Lee at #23, when he was outside the top 50 on prospect1500. I think this is a decent ranking for now until we see how his injury shakes out.
• Trey Lipscomb at #24; well below the lofty #15 spot Prospcts1500 had him.
• Tim Cate, still hanging in there at #28. Just can’t let him go can you?

outside the top 30:

• Any of our 2023 IFA signings; i guess BA doesn’t start considering them until they start playing.
• Jared McKenzie: mid 20s in other shops, outside our top 30. we’ll see how he does in 2023.
• Brenner Cox: #11 on Prospects1500, outside BA’s top 30? This seems like a miss.
• Samuel Infante: Our 2nd rounder just three years ago is nowhere to be found. Our sordid history of sh*tty 2nd round picks continues. Stop me when you hear a name you like: Bennett, Lile, Infante, Forfeited for Corbin, Cate, Crowe, Neuse, Stevenson & Perkins, Suarez who didn’t sign, Johansen, Renda, Forfeited for Werth signing, Solis, Koburnus, Hood, Smolinksi & Zimmermann. OK, that’s frigging going back to 2007 before we find a for-real impact 2nd rounder. That’s ridiculous!!!
• Jake Alu: ok so we can rank Cate in the top 30, a guy who has basically ZERO chance of playing in the majors at this point, versus Alu, who we can almost guarantee is going to break camp with the MLB roster in 2023.
• Hey, at least they didn’t rank Yasel Antuna.

Prospects1500.com is the most courageous prospect ranking shop out there, releasing top 50s every year when most other shop puts out lists with no more than 30 names.

We often talk about how prospects in the 20s are, for all intents and purposes, maxing out as lottery tickets or org guys, but Prospects1500 goes even further, ranking another 20 guys.

So, more to talk about.

First up, Here’s my master list of all Nats prospect rankings. This XLS has more than 200 pundit rankings of individual players in our system, dating back to 2004 believe it or not. Nearly 400 players have appeared on a prospect ranking list for our team in that period. This is one of the biggest resources i’ve managed to maintain and keep updated over the years, and it just keeps growing every time another prospect list is dropped. I find this xls fascinating if only for the discrepancies between shops in the way they rank players.

Back to Prospects1500: here’s their 2023 Top 50 list. Since this is not behind a paywall, I’ll post the full 50 here:

rank	Last Name	First Name	Position	2022 Starting Level	Draft/IFA signing Year	How Acquired?	Bonus if known
1	Wood	James	OF (Corner)	Low-A	2021 2nd	Trade	2600000
2	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)	FCL	2022 1st	Draft	6500000
3	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)	High-A	2020 1st	Trade	4300000
4	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)	AAA	2020 1st	Draft	3027000
5	House	Brady	SS/3B	Low-A	2021 1st	Draft	5000000
6	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)	XST	2022 IFA	IFA	4900000
7	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)	FCL	2022 IFA	Trade	1700000
8	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)	AA	2020 2nd	Draft	2000000
9	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)	Low-A	2018 IFA	IFA	300000
10	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)	Low-A	2021 5th	Draft	400000
11	Cox	Brenner	OF (CF)	FCL	2022 4th	Draft	1000000
12	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)	FCL	2022 2nd	Draft	1734800
13	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)	Low-A	2019 IFA	IFA	1250000
14	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)	High-A	2020 NDFA	NDFA	20000
15	Lipscomb	Trey	3B	Low-A	2022 3rd	Draft	758500
16	Cruz	Armando	SS	XST	2021 IFA	IFA	3900000
17	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)	Low-A	2019 1st	Draft	3450000
18	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)	XST (TJ)	2021 2nd	Draft	1750000
19	Alu	Jake	3B	AA	2019 24th	Draft	10000
20	Quintana	Roismar	OF (CF)	XST	2019 IFA	IFA	820000
21	McKenzie	Jared	OF (CF)	Low-A	2022 5th	Draft	410500
22	Frizzell	Will	1B	Low-A	2021 8th	Draft	179800
23	Ferrer	Jose	LHP (Reliever)	Low-A	2017 IFA	IFA	?
24	Ramirez	Aldo	RHP (Starter)	XST (inj)	2018 IFA	Trade	450000
25	Carrillo	Gerardo	RHP (Reliever)	AA	2016 IFA	Trade	75000
26	Ward	Thad	RHP (Starter)	OO – AA	2018 5th	Rule-5	275000
27	Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)	High-A	2020 5th	Draft	100000
28	Boissiere	Branden	OF (Corner)	Low-A	2021 3rd	Draft	600000
29	Theophile	Rodney	RHP (Starter)	Low-A	2018 IFA	IFA	10000
30	Baker	Darren	2B	High-A	2021 10th	Draft	146800
31	Infante	Samuel	SS	Low-A	2020 2nd	Draft	1000000
32	Pineda	Israel	C	High-A	2016 IFA	IFA	450000
33	Cronin	Matt	LHP (Reliever)	AA	2019 4th	Draft	464500
34	Downs	Jeter	2B	OO – AAA	2017 1st	Waivers	1825000
35	Irvin	Jake	RHP (Starter)	High-A	2018 4th	Draft	550000
36	Antuna	Yasel	SS/OF (Corner)	High-A	2016 IFA	IFA	3900000
37	Young	Jacob	OF (CF)	Low-A	2021 7th	Draft	275000
38	Millas	Drew	C	XST (inj)	2019 7th	Trade	170000
39	Shuman	Seth	RHP (Starter)	High-A	2019 6th	Trade	235000
40	Cabrera	Manuel	SS	early	2023 IFA	IFA	550000
41	Denaburg	Mason	RHP (Starter)	XST (TJ)	2018 1st	Draft	3000000
42	Polanco	Bryan	RHP (Reliever)	DSL	2021 IFA	IFA	?
43	Emiliani	Leandro	1B	Low-A	2017 IFA	IFA	?
44	Troop	Alex	RHP (Reliever)	AA	2017 9th	Draft	185000
45	Mendoza	Drew	3B	High-A	2019 3rd	Draft	800000
46	Marte	Daniel	OF (CF)	FCL	2018 IFA	IFA	300000
47	Arruda	J.T.	SS	Low-A	2019 11th	Draft	250000
48	Acevedo	Andy	OF	early	2023 IFA	IFA	1300000
49	Solano	Edwin	SS	early	2023 IFA	IFA	1300000
50	Soto	Elian	OF/SS	early	2023 IFA	IFA	425000

Here’s my reaction to the list, going down the rankings from #1 to #50.

• This analysis includes more than just a ranking of 50 players; author Caleb Sanders also breaks the players down into tiers, includes some video, etc. He defines the Tiers as you’d expect; the top tier are expected to basically be All Stars (Wood and Green), the 2nd tier to be “solid MLB contributors” (Hassell, Cavalli, House, Vaquero), Tier 3s to have a reasonable expectation of making the Majors (every one ranked from 7 to 20).
• So, with all due respect, it is way, way too early to be putting those kind of expectations specifically on Vaquero in particular. The Cuban showed very little in the DSL in 2022 based on the size of his signing bonus, his pedigree, his origins (Cuba), and the fact that he was 17 turning 18 at the end of the season in a league filled with younger players. I don’t have a problem ranking him where they do (6-7 range, right in line with everyone else), but claiming he’s got a high probability of making the majors right now seems to entirely be based on is signing bonus of $4.9M. Call me when Armando Cruz ($3.9M) or Yasel Antuna ($3.9M) pans out.
• No quibbling with their top 6-7 players; same 6-7 that everyone else has.
• Cole Henry at #8. This is aspirational; if he’s healthy he’s probably top 5. Right now its a coin flip if he pitches at the same level again, maybe worse odds than that. I’d have him in the teens.
• Huge bump up for TJ White, who comes in at #10 when other major shops had him in the deep 20s in their 2022 lists. We’ll see if other pundits agree when the “big” lists from MLB, BA, Klaw, and Fangraphs come out pre-2023.
• Brenner Cox at #11. I dunno. Something screams Jakson Reetz to me about Cox; a prep player who gets bought out of a D1 commitment and wasn’t really on anyone’s prep radar. I need to see some production before buying in.
• Love for Covid NDFA Zach Brzycky (scrabble score for his last name? 30 points!) at #14. That’s great; BA’s mid-season 2023 list didn’t even have him in their top 30. I thought he was crazy for signing for the pittance that he did after the 5 round Covid draft and I hope the team takes care of him.
• Jackson Rutledge comes in at #17, which at least is a reasonable ranking for him as compared to fools who keep putting him in their top 10. But hey, now he’s on the 40man so i’m sure we’ll see him in the majors soon, even if he has an 8 ERA in High-A in June.
• Jake Alu, given the #19 spot. He hasn’t seen a prospect ranking since Fangraphs’ August ranking. Alu is an excellent example of the difficulties of ranking prospects. He hit well in AAA but features as a low-ceiling MLB utility player; how do you rank that as a prospect evaluation? Is Alu a better or worse prospect than some 17yr old DSL kid who is 6 years and 5 levels away from where Alu is right now but has a higher theoretically “ceiling?” Either way, bravo to Alu and I hope he fares well in 2023.
• First time we’ve seen Will Frizzell on any prospect list after his 2021 drafting. I mean, lets be honest, this dude is big (6’5″ 225) and destroyed Low-A pitching this year (.377/.426/.696). I suppose you’d expect that out of an SEC middle-of-the-order bat. He needs to get to higher levels and see if he can blast his way up. He’s positionally limited (1B/DH)
• Aldo Ramirez getting dinged down a bit, as he should be given his injuries. He sits #24 here.
• Gerardo Carrillo all the way down at #25. I’m liking this pundit; he’s not afraid to ding down players who don’t perform. What has Carrillo done at this point to have anyone think he has a shot of making the majors?
• Newly acquired waiver claim Thad Ward comes in at #26. Sure. whatever.
• #27 Mitchell Parker should be higher. All he’s done at every level is perform. Right now, who would you rather have on the mound in a must-win game, Parker at #27 or Rutledge at #17? How about Parker or Bennett at #12?
• First time ranking ever for Rodney Theophile, coming in way down at #29 but giving some props for the $10k IFA signing who cleaned up in Low-A this year.
• Another waiver claim in Jeter Downs sits at #34. sure, whatever.
• It’s not going to be worthwhile to quibble too much about anyone ranked below #30. I will point out players who I think are too low, and then players who are missing at this point
• Jake Irvin is higher than #35. I don’t get this ranking. I mean, the dude posted respectable numbers in AA and was put on the 40-man. Who’d you rather have, Irvin (#35) or Andry Lara at #13?
• Yasel Antuna, ranked at #36. Where he should be. This is your reminder that the idiots at Baseball America ranked him #7 a month ago.
• Four of our new IFA signings from a week ago are here: Manuel Cabrera, Andy Acevedo, Edwin Solano, and based on his last name apparently, Elian Soto. I find it somewhat interesting that Cabrera was the best ranked prospect of these players, but got a bonus that was a third of what Acevedo and Solano got.

Believe it or not, after 50 players, there’s some players who are missing from this list who I probably would have found room for.

• Would you have put Evan Lee in here somewhere? I mean, he was in the majors last year. Now he’s not even worth ranking above a bunch of 16yr olds we just signed? He’s hurt, not dead.
• Jackson Cluff hangs around as a defensive specialist; worth mentioning? There’s other plus-defenders out there who could turn things around with the bat: Jordy Barly, Donovan Casey, etc.
• I guess we’ve completely given up on Tim Cate at this point. Drew Mendoza is still worth ranking but not Cate.
• Tres Barrera: nowhere in the top 50.

All in all, a solid list.

Upon hearing the latest “1 year veteran FA lottery ticket” signing (Corey Dickerson), I paused to update the Big Board and slot in Dickerson into the starting lineup.

If the season opened today, here’s what we’re presumably putting out on the field:

CA	Ruiz, Keibert#
1B	Smith, Dominic*
2B	Garcia, Luis*
SS	Abrams, C.J.
3B	Candelario, Jeimer#
CF	Dickerson, Corey*
CF	Robles, Victor
RF	Thomas, Lane
DH	Meneses, Joey

This lineup includes now three off-season signings in Dominic Smith, Jeimer Candelario, and now Dickerson. All of them are getting non-trivial money to come here, and all of them are going to start.

Here’s the thing. The team lost 107 games last year. We (arguably) had internal players to cover the three positions these guys are now projected to play.

Why exactly did we sign them, instead of playing our prospects??

So, instead of allowing Joey Meneses , who lest we forget hit 13 homers in 65 games last year en route to a 165 OPS+ figure, to play 1B primarily, we’ve bought Smith and guaranteed him the spot (2022 slash line for Smith: .194/.276/.284.

Instead of seeing if Carter Kieboom can actually hold onto the job at 3B, or (gasp) maybe give a shot to (arguably) the best minor league hitter we had last year in Jake Alu, we now get to watch some random guy named Candelario (2022 slash line: .217 .272 .361).

Instead of rolling the dice in LF with a guy like Alex Call (or even positionally-flexible Meneses or Alu) or newly signed Stone Garrett, or maybe even to continue to give ABs to Yadiel Hernandez (who had a 108 OPS+ last year at the position) … we get Dickerson, who is now on his 7th team at the age of 34, has zero history here, and is literally the definition of journeyman.

Is this what we really want as a fan-base? To have these positions filled by guys we couldn’t pick out of a lineup, instead of seeing if we have internal options that can grow into the positions?

What’s the goal in 2023? To only lose 106 games? Do we really care if we go 55-107 again? All our top prospects are babies, aged 19-20 and playing in the lower minors. It’s going to take several years for these guys to matriculate. We KNOW 2023 is a lost season already. The ownership is in flux, the damn MASN thing still remains unresolved, and we have $65M tied up in two starters who may never pitch again.

I mean, what’s next? Do we re-sign Nelson Cruz to paper over Meneses yet again and relegate him to the bench? What’s more valuable to the team: 4 months of a 1yr FA on the off-chance he has a decent summer and can be flipped for some low-A reliever at the trade deadline, or to see if guys like Kieboom, Alu, Garrett, heck maybe even Jeter Downs can compete?