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Nats Rotation End of May 2026 check-in

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Jackson Kent now in AAA. Photo via University of Arizona

Here’s the May 2026 check-in on rotations. In the interest of time, which I’m pressed for this month badly, I’ll skip the bullpen comments and just focus on starters this post.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, etc.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

All Stats quoted are as of 5/31/26’s games.

We’ll start with the Majors.

  • Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
  • End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
  • End of May 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (still with openers), Littell (also with openers), Alvarez.

Changes since end of last Month: Irvin suffered a right shoulder strain while pitching his best game of the season (of course he did), and hit the DL. Though reported as mild, per the injury report he’s yet to resume any throwing and is just doing strength and conditioning stuff. Alvarez took his spot (as opposed to other options like Parker or Cornelio or Lord) and has continued to be decent.

Rotation Observations: Griffen’s numbers came back to earth thanks to one horrid outing. He’s still got decent looking ERA and WHIP, but a troubling 4.88 FIP that makes me wonder if we’re not going to see more regression to the mean. Cavalli really bore down in May, cutting his walk rate in half and thus his WHIP from 1.6 to 1.1. Love it. Despite Irvin’s excellent start where he got hurt, he had a rough month. Mikolas was actually decent in May; a 3.52 ERA in his five “starts.” Even though he got hit around in his first June appearance. Lastly Littell was actually our best pitcher in May; pitching to a 2.35 ERA in 6 games/30IP. Amazing given what he did in April.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • April 2026: Mikolas
  • May 2026: Probably Irvin before he got hurt. Now it’s likely Alvarez who makes way unless he starts throwing nothing but shutout innings. Mikolas has stayed his execution.

AAA Rochester

  • Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
  • End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
  • End of May 2026: Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain, Kent

Changes since end of last Month: Alvarez called up to cover for Irvin. That spot was filled by the promotion of Jackson Kent. Just a comment here: Kent was a 2024 4th rounder who signed for under slot and who has almost no prospect buzz; now he’s in AAA.

Rotation Observations: Perales, who is the sole remaining 40-man arm from opening day who hasn’t pitched in the majors, was stellar this month: 1.53 ERA in 4 games. He’s still not pitching that many innings: 17ip in 4appearances. Also, if he throws 101, where are the Ks?? 11 Ks in 17 ip? Weird. Champlain isn’t getting a ton of K/9 but he is effective: 3.45 ERA for the month for the late spring training MLFA signing. Cornelio & Alvarez’s numbers weren’t great this month, but they’ve also been on the commuter shuttle back and forth, a lot. Lastly we have Lara, who was outrighted and was out of the rotation for a while, and now we remember why. 7.85 ERA for the month in 6 starts and it seems like he should go back to the bullpen.

Next guy to get promoted:

  • April: Alvarez and Cornelio. Verdict: both have been promoted, Alvarez is staying there.
  • May: Perales and his sub 2.00 ERA could play in the majors.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • April: none really, Champlain had the least investment
  • May: Lara clearly.

AA Harrisburg

  • Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
  • Reminder of the AA Disabled List: Sykora, Susana, Rosario, Stuart, Swan, now Garcia
  • End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawara, Kent
  • End of May 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Ogasawara, Lyon, Randall (spot starts from Van Scoyoc)

Changes since end of last Month: Kent got promoted, replaced by newly promoted Lyon. Then, Garcia hit the DL and was replaced by newly promoted Randall.

Rotation Observations: Ogasawara had another solid month with a 2.31 era, and it’s kind of dumb why the team is keeping a 28yr old veteran IFA in AA. Clemmey continues to struggle in AA; 5.26 ERA this month, 15 walks in 22 innings. I’m not sure what to do here; he has nothing to prove in High-A; he’s just got to ride it out here. Luckham continues to confound how he retains his rotation job; 6.31 ERA for the month. Lyon has struggled in his two AA starts since promotion, while Randall’s AA debut was stellar (5ip 2H 0 runs). Lastly, Long Man/spot starter Van Scoyo had a solid month: 23/2 K/BB in 23IP, a 3.80 ERA.

Next guy to get promoted:

  • April: Ogasawara, then Kent. Kent was promoted over Ogasawara
  • May: clearly Ogasawara.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • April: Luckham.
  • May: still Luckham.

High-A Wilmington

  • Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
  • End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
  • End of May 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Polanco, Bruni, Meckley

Changes since end of last Month: Randall and Lyon were promoted, replaced by LR/SS Bruni and newly promoted Meckley

Rotation Observations: It was mostly a rough month for the starters in Wilmington. Lyon had the best stats and got promoted for it, but the rest? phew. Tejeda was the best of the rest with a pedestrian 4.34 ERA and more Ks than IP. Maddox and Meckley both had ERAs right around 5. Bruni and Polanco? They’re in the 7s. It’s no wonder the system promoted Miguel Sime Jr just after the month ended.

Next guy to get promoted:

  • April: Randall: he did indeed get promoted
  • May: None. Tejeda if I had to name one.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • April: Polanco
  • May: still Polanco but likely Bruni makes way for Sime.

Low-A Fredericksburg

Low-A spent most of the first 6 weeks of the season doing tandem starts, but as players hit the DL or hit ineffectiveness, we’ve seen the rotation really settle into something more conventional.

  • Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
  • End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
  • End of May 2026: Portorreal, Sime, Johnson, Fischer, and Tepper doing rehab the whole month

Changes since end of last Month: Meckley promoted, Hughes struggled so they’re both out from April. The Sime/Johnson tandem was the split up. Harmon hit the 7-day DL with a non-serious Oblique injury, but Conradt was put on the full-season DL with a very serious injury. Lastly Tepper made 4 rehab starts in Low-A this month, enough so that he was basically on the team. Minor league rehab sessions can be up to 30 days for pitchers, so he’s got a few more days as of this writing before heading back to High-A. The team just promoted De la Cruz from the FCL; he may take Tepper’s spot.

Rotation Observations: Fischer, a 2025NDFA from UMiami, is dominating; 0.90 ERA, 0.90 whip in 6 May starts. Portorreal turned things around in a big way, even if he’s only doing 2-3 IP/start. Sime had an ugly era/whip but continued to strike out 2 guys an inning, so the team promoted him. Frankly, I don’t think he’s ready for the next level, not when he’s walking more than a guy an inning, but the fastball plays. Luke Johnson: 3.12 ERA but too many baserunners. He’s too hittable (.304 BAA). Tepper’s 4 rehab starts were stellar as expected.

Taking a quick peek at some of the guys still doing “tandem” longer relief sessions: Manning had 7 games/15IP, and a 20/2 K/BB. That’ll work. Sullivan had 2 starts and 6 appearances with a middling 4.86 ERA.

Next guy to get promoted:

  • April: Meckley; indeed he was promoted
  • May: Fischer

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • April: Portorreal: he has turned it around greatly.
  • May: Probably Johnson if we had to pick someone; they’ve already settled the tandem starters and demoted guys to the pen

Rookie FCL

Reminder: FCL guys are basically throwing 2-3 IP stints, so a month’s of work is usually 12-14 IP. This is small sample size analysis.

  • Opening Day 2026: Weaver, Reyes, Martina, De la Cruz, Robles
  • End of May 2026: Reyes, De la Cruz, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell,

Changes since end of last Month: Martina got a start the first week, but likely is hurt (hasn’t thrown since 5/11). The team added Bothwell into the mix so we show a 6-man “rotation” right now that has these guys mostly stacked up for tandem starts. Weaver made one start and hasn’t pitched since May 8th; not a good sign.

Rotation Observations: De la Cruz had a 0.75 ERA in 6 games and got promoted. Reyes looks promising: .122 BAA but a few too many walks. Lopez, Bothwell, and Reyes all have decent looking ERAs in the 3s and decent peripherals.

Next guy to get promoted:

  • May: Reyes

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • May: Robles

Note: the DSL just started its league on 6/1, so we don’t know their rotation yet. We’ll cover that on July 1.

That’s it for April 2026.

Written by Todd Boss

June 3rd, 2026 at 12:08 pm

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching,Prospects

Nats Rotation End of April 2026 check-in

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Miguel Sime has exploded onto the pro scene so far this year. Photo via BA

We’re a month into the 2026 full seasons, believe it or not, so its time to bring back the monthly check-in on the rotations, from the MLB to DSL (once they start). This always ends up being one of the main posts I look forward to researching and writing each month, and we’ll continue the format from years’ past.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

All Stats quoted are as of 4/30/26’s games.

We’ll start with the Majors.

  • Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
  • End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin

Changes since end of last Month: Butera has been using Poulin as an “opener” for Mikolas, but technically he’s still the pitcher expected to go the most innings on that day in the rotation. Otherwise, the rotation has not changed for the first month of the season.

Rotation Observations: We have two solid starters in Griffin and Cavalli. Griffin is getting national attention for his start and is looking like a steal that may fetch a pretty penny at the trade deadline. Cavalli’s numbers are a bit deceiving (3.82 ERA and 1.66 whip) but his peripherals show us what’s really going on: a 2.84 FIP thanks to a ridiculous .419 BABIP he’s carrying right now. His walks are a bit high, but nothing he’s throwing is leaving the yard (just a 3.3 FB/HR percentage). Dare I say it? Cavalli is looking like the 1st rounder we’ve been waiting for, for years.

Irvin is about what we expected: a 5th starter quality guy who has good days and bad.

Then there’s the problem children. Mikolas and Littell are tied for the league lead in Earned Runs allowed so far, and every 4th flyball Littell throws ends up in the stands. Mikolas has been so bad that the manager has relied on an opener to get through the first inning AND AAA call-ups to mop up innings knowing that he can barely get through the order once. Littell is even worse: he’s got a FIP north of 9.00 … and that’s with a BABIP of .268! He’s actually set to get worse. The team has $7m tied up in Littell but just $2.25M in Mikolas, and he looks washed up. I think he gets another month, tops, before the 37-yr old is released.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Mikolas

Bullpen comments: Not great. When you open the season with a slew of MLFAs and waiver claims as your bullpen, you’re asking for trouble. Plus, the starters have been so bad that the bullpen has been taxed to the point were every single 40-man arm except Perales has been put to use … and we’re a month into the season. We’ve already lost Waldichuk for the year and our two best arms Beeter and Henry) are on the DL. This seems like its going to get bad, fast. The 3 arms in AAA available for call-up include Rutledge and Fernandez, who were awful in short MLB stints.

AAA Rochester

  • Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
  • End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)

Changes since end of last Month: Parker got the call-up and stuck, which necessitated the promotion of late-spring MLFA signing Champlain to move to AAA (where he probably should be anyway). Ogasawara came up for a couple spot starts to cover for when Alvarez and Cornelio covered innings in MLB, but he’s back in AA (where he probably should be).

Rotation Observations: Cornelio’s era/fip aren’t great but he’s got a 32/13 K/BB in 21IP. I’d expect this kind of swing and miss to get him the majors first amongst the 40-man starters. Lara and Champlain have probably been the most effective of the starters so far, with ERAs in the mid 3s, a 28/4 K/BB, and workable FIPs. That’s great news for Lara’s sake, in that he was DFA’d in January but didn’t get claimed; he seems like he’s earning his way back onto the 40-man and may get a chance sooner than later. Alvarez is experiencing a bit of a letdown after not making the MLB roster, but he’s on the 40-man and was pretty effective in his brief callup. Perales is walking too many guys, but remains the highest ranked prospect starter of the bunch. However, his middling numbers are masking a very low BABIP and his xFIP is through the roof.

Next guy to get promoted: I’d have to think Alvarez would be the next starter promoted if they needed it, but with Parker already up there they seem like they’ll continue to use Alvarez and Cornelio as they have; middle long relief. Maybe the team eventually cuts bait with both Mikolas and Littell and both Alvarez and Cornelio will get the call.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: none of these guys are pitching their way out of the rotation due to 40-man status or prospect status. The team has the least invested in MLFA Champlain, so if someone in AA really needed moving up, I’d guess Champlain would make way.

Bullpen comments: Yean and Gott are the two guys in the AAA bullpen with MLB experience who could get call-ups relatively easily, and both are pitching relatively well in AAA. Penrod has 14 walks and 14 strikeouts in 10 innings; that’s some Nuke Laloosh work right there. The rest of the bullpen in AAA are guys with ERAs in the 5-6 range; it’s ugly.

AA Harrisburg

  • Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
  • End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Kent
  • Reminder of the AA Disabled List: Sykora, Susana, Rosario, Stuart, Swan

Changes since end of last Month: Swan got hurt and was replaced by Kent, but Ogasawara only managed to get one start in the month as he bounced up and back; the rest of the starts were openers/bullpen games started by relievers.

Rotation Observations: Clemmey’s base numbers (2.95 ERA) are exposed by a ridiculously low BABIP and way too many walks (17 walks in 18 IP). He’s young (he’s 20), and he’s still a prospect, but he’s just walking too many guys. Garcia is looking like he may have been too aggressively pushed up this off-season; he’s got 18 walks and 15 K’s in 16ip so far. Kent looks very solid in his first four starts, even if they were pretty short, and he continues to be an underrated starter prospect in the system. Luckham may have permanently established his ceiling as a pro; he’s been tried out in AAA twice now and has gotten shelled; now he’s 26 and in his 5th pro season.

Next guy to get promoted: Ogasawara has already been the guy who gets the first call up and would be again. After him, its probably Kent.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Luckham.

Bullpen comments: Connor Van Scoyoc has been effective in long relief and could slot in as a spot starter if need be. Luke Young is having a solid start to the season. Erick Mejia probably should be in AAA; not sure why he got dumped down to AA after finishing last season there. Holden Powell may be running out of time; he’s in his 6th pro season and is repeating AA for the fourth year.

High-A Wilmington

  • Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
  • End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon

Changes since end of last Month: Bruni was the opening day starter, but really only because Sullivan was apparently a late scratch that day. Sullivan was then sent down and replaced by the promoted Lyon. Bruni remains a LR but hasn’t started again.

Rotation Observations: Randall is the class of the group right now, with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.80 whip, and a 21/3 K/BB ratio. The 2024 3rd rounder was our bounty (along with the injured RJ Sales) for former closer Finnegan last year, and he’s already looking like he needs to be pushed to AA. Maddox is holding his own so far with decent if not spectacular numbers. Tejeda is walking too many guys and if he can clear that up he’ll have similar numbers to Maddox. Polanco is the oldest of the group and is getting shelled; he’s got a .338 BAA and has given up 6 homers in 17IP so far. That’s not good, especially since Wilmington is a pitcher’s park. Lyon has two starts but just 4 IP, so it seems like the team is still trying to figure out who their 5th starter is. They’ve got a couple of candidates on the 15day (Sthele and Tepper), so maybe one will come back soon.

Next guy to get promoted: Randall

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Polanco

Bullpen comments: Aldonis and Hill have been pitching the best out of the bullpen, but most of the High-A pen is getting shelled. Whips north of 1.6, and more than a few ERAs in the 8s and 9s. Six of the relievers in Wilmington were MLFAs or Rule5 draftees, thus brand new to this org and presumably grabbled due to a gap in our pitching development pipeline. Hopefully there’s reinforcements bubbling up from Low-A soon.

Low-A Fredericksburg

Note: Low-A has been doing mostly “tandem” starts, with each guy named going 3IP each night.

  • Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
  • End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan

Changes since end of last Month: The initial five “starters” have stayed relatively consistent, even if the “2nd guy in” has switched around slightly.

Rotation Observations: We’re seeing some really promising stuff out of Low-A right now. 2024 big-bonus prep kid Sime has exploded onto the scene with crazy K numbers: he’s got 32ks in 14IP. He’s also got 11 BBs in those 14Ip, so not all is great, but he’s only given up six hits in his first 5 starts. Harmon, our other 2024 big-money prep pitcher, doesn’t have 16 k/9 figures but has been very solid with a 1.88 ERA, a sub-1.00 whip, and a .174 BAA. There’s several other names here who have solid numbers to build on: Fischer and Meckley are the oldest of this group at 23 and 22 respectively and are showing signs that they’re close to solving the level. Portorreal is the only guy who doesn’t seem to be getting ‘tandemed” and he’s easily the worst of these starters: just 9 Ks in 18ip.

Next guy to get promoted: Meckley.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Portorreal

Bullpen comments: Jared Beck line for the month: 12IP, 19Ks 16 walks, 3 hits and a hilarious 0.81 BAA. Well, if you don’t throw it over the plate they can’t ever get a chance to hit it. I once walked 8 straight times to open a Babe Ruth season; my OBP remained north of .500 for basically the entire year as a result. Bryant Olsen another one: 21/10 K/BB in 11 innings. Sullivan is a weird one: he started the year in High-A, got demoted, and he’s fallen apart to the tune of an ERA in the 12s.

That’s it for April 2026.

Written by Todd Boss

May 1st, 2026 at 1:46 pm

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching,Minor League Rotation Reviews

Nats use their 21st pitcher — Its April 21st

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Do you know who this is? He’s our most effective reliever so far in 2026, and I’d guess you couldn’t pick him out of a lineup, even as an ardent Nats fan. its PJ Poulin. Photo via MLB.

When the team chose to go to war for the 2026 Opening day with a bullpen that featured

  • 5 Wavier claims (Poulin, Varland, Waldichuk, Schultz, and yes Lovelady counts here)
  • 1 MLFAs (Perez), and
  • 2 trade acquisitions with negligible MLB service time (Beeter, Granillo)

… one could probably have been a little concerned about how they’d fare.

Well, 3 weeks in, we have our answer. They’ve already made use of every other reliever on the 40-man at some point (Rutledge, Ribalta, and Fernandez … yet another Waiver claim) plus have made use of two starters (Parker and Alvarez) to eat innings with varying success.

As Mark Zuckerman pointed out, with Fernandez’s ridiculously awful outing last night (where he gave up 2 hits, 2 walks, threw a pitch to the backstop, and bounced so many balls in the dirt that his catcher Millas seemed completely fed up when one of them caught him flush in the hand), the team has now used 21 pitchers already, including one mop-up inning from outfielder Joey Weimer.

21 pitchers. That’s hard to do when you only have 25 arms on the entire 40-man roster, and four of them are on the 60-day DL.

Already, the Nats bullpen is last in the league in fWAR, 29th in FIP, 27th in ERA, 30th in K/9.

Clearly, this isn’t sustainable. But, I’m not entirely sure where they go from here. It’s one thing when you build a bullpen as Rizzo did so frequently in the past, from a combination of holdovers, veteran FAs, and call-ups. At least there you weren’t rolling the dice with 75% of the pen. But with so many trash-heap players, who other teams didn’t even think were worthy of keeping a 40-man spot, let alone a 26-man active roster spot, this was always going to be a recipe for disaster.

There’s zero 40-man help remaining in Rochester; the only two guys they haven’t called up are starters Perales and Cornelio … who aren’t exactly locks to be able to come in and pitch effectively in relief after being on longer rest. There’s a couple more MLFAs there with MLB time who aren’t pitching half bad (Yean and Gott), but the rest of the AAA bullpen isn’t exactly inspiring confidence either.

It could be a long season.

Written by Todd Boss

April 21st, 2026 at 10:09 am

Posted in Majors Pitching

Reactions to Full Season Roster Announcements and Rotations

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Parker reacclimating himself with the buses in AAA. Photo via WP

With the staggered starts now in place for MLB, AAA, and then the rest of the full-season minor leagues, we no longer get the massive data dump of roster releases like in year’s past. We get MLB, then AAA, then the rest. So, I’ve kind of held onto this post for a bit. We also had to wait for all the leagues to get totally through one rotation so I could write this reaction piece.

Here’s some reactions to the five Full-season roster announcements. I’m primarily focusing on the starting rotations, and just for fun i’m pulling in my 2026 Rotation predictions piece written last October to talk about just how far off I was. I’ll throw in some commentary on each rotation, and I’m also adding in commentary on some notable position player assignments.

  • MLB predicted for 2026: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, Alvarez
  • MLB Actual 2026: Cavalli, Mikolas, Irvin, Griffen, Littell

Rotation Thoughts: Well, that didn’t go how I thought it would last fall.

  1. I thought the team would hold onto Gore through the 2026 trade deadline and flip him then (wrong: they found a trade partner willing to part with some top-end prospects)
  2. I thought Grey would be healthy (nope: flexor strain, on top of an entire year lost to TJ. not good)
  3. I thought Alvarez’ September would earn him a spot as the sole lefty worthy of the rotation (nope: by all accounts reading the tea leaves from sping training coverage this team never really considered him, or Parker, for the 5th starter spot.
  4. I figured we’d sign just one FA, not three.
  5. And I certainly didn’t think Irvin would earn a spot after his awful 2025.

Lots of “wrong” in there.

Losing Grey was a bummer; Flexor Strain often turns into more. I know he’s not an Ace in this league, but he has promise, and would be a solid 4th starter on a good team. Unfortunately, we’re not a good team, so he was our opening day starter two years ago. Lets all just hold our collective breath and hope these three veteran FAs pitch well enough to net talent at the trade deadline.

In my prediction piece, I thought the team would push all three of Parker, Irvin, and Lord to the bullpen. Lord’s relief splits were so much better than his starter splits that it made too much sense, while the others could hopefully morph into better starters. Instead, the team sent Parker down, along with (initially) four other 40-man members.

Other Roster thoughts: MLB Bullpen, Roster reactions: I already posted on this topic around Opening day. TL/DR: the bullpen is a collection of waiver claims and MLFAs nobody’s heard off and the team sent down or cut loose prospects instead of playing them at the MLB level. And, through the first week we’re not exactly seeing a murder’s row of relivers coming out of the pen. After a promising opening series, the bullpen has looked worse than awful, and it may be a long season of up-and-down options/call-ups from the AAA core.

  • AAA predicted for 2026: Lao, Ogasawara, Cornelio, Bennett, veteran MLFA
  • AAA actual: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Cornelio, Lara/Champlain

Rotation thoughts: We thought we had a clean set of 40-man starters set to go in AAA when the opening day MLB rosters were announced, but then the team DFA’d Linan and has had to scramble in the opening weeks of the season to find a 5th starter. The first turn through was a brief stint from former 40-man member Lara, but the real candidate seems to be MLFA signee Champlain, who’s basically always been a starter. This is an experienced, expectations-heavy crew; Parker hasn’t been in AAA since late 2023 and (for me) should be in the MLB bullpen. Same with Alvarez: not sure what he has to prove in AAA after a stellar 2025 (his first two starts in 2026 confirm that so far). Cornelio more than earned his spot on this roster with his meteoric rise in 2025; should be interesting to see if he sticks. My off-season predictions were understandably shredded when the team released Lao (to go to Japan) and traded Bennett (straight up for Perales). Ogasawara got pushed down with so many 40-man players pouring into AA to be the richest guy in the Eastern league.

Other roster thoughts: the team, by virtue of sending down so many 1B/OF types, now has a massive logjam of players in AAA who need playing time. AAA now has Ortiz, Chapparo, Hassell, Crews, and Franklin, all of whom are on the 40-man and aren’t in AAA for their health. On top of that you have well regarded OF prospects Pinckney and Glasser with little room to play, and then so many 1B types has pushed Morales to 3B … that’s like 7 guys for 5 spots night in and night out. At least they alleviated the pressure a little bit by releasing Mervis … but a 40-man guy is now sitting regularly in AAA. So far, it seems like Pinckney is the odd-man out, with the more flexible Glasser playing mostly 2B. Pinckney may be another sign of something I alluded to previously; he was clearly a favorite of the previous front office, getting spring training NRIs out of nowhere despite being basically less-than 4A talent.

The Bullpen features basically three 40-man guys on their last chance (Rutledge, Ribalta, Fernandez). If these guys couldn’t beat out the any one of the waiver claims currently in MLB, that really is an indictment of where they are. They’re joined by four 2026 MLFAs (one step above a waiver claim) in Yean, Gott, Penrod, and Montes de Oca (already hurt). There’s three former starters in the pen (Lara, Shuman, Tolman), so it should be interesting to see who gets the 5th starter spot long term once Eder got DFA’d and traded for basically nothing (ok, they got “cash”). Technically it looked like Lara got the start when they first needed a 5th starter, but i’m guessing it may actually be Chander Champlain, an end of spring training MLFA who pitched to a 7.84 ERA last year as a AAA starter in the PCL. Could be an interesting year of churn in AAA with the new regime so freely grabbing guys off the MLFA/waiver wire.

  • AA predicted: Rotation: Kent, Clemmey, Choi, Sthele, Atencio
  • AA Acutal: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
  • AA D/L rotation: Susana, Sykora, Stuart, Rosario, Kent.

Rotation thoughts: Gee, kinda wish our AA rotation was our DL list and not who we’re actually throwing out there. That’s two top-5 prospects, a near top-10, and two current/former mid teen prospects.

Happy to see both Swan and Garcia moved up. Where is Kent?? I thought he was a key member of this rotation but he’s nowhere to be found to start the season (answer: he’s on the DL, put there after the season started, though apparently not yet onto Milb.com’s register). Luckham and Ogasawara were pushed down to AA thanks to too many 40-man guys coming down from MLB, and that ended up impacting a couple arms here: I initially predicted Choi to be here but he was a MLFA after last season … and remains a MLFA. Same with Atencio; he elected MLFA as well and is out of the system (not sure how I screwed that up). Nonetheless, AA a major prospect and two promising arms to watch. I’ll have to time it right in the rotation when Harrisburg comes to visit Richmond so I can see one of the better prospects throw.

Other roster thoughts: the AA non-pitching roster has a lot of holdovers from the end of 2025, and a lot of down-ballot but still important prospect depth. Lomavita’s pathway to the majors has been severely impacted with the Ford acquisition; how will he react? Is Seaver King mid-2025 version of AFL-version? Is Wallace a top 10 prospect or a mid-30s prospect? Is Sam Peterson the real deal? Lots of fun questions for this roster. The day before this writing Made broke his leg (or something similarly bad) and went straight to the 60-day DL, opening up probably the last chance for DC-native Cortland Lawson to get a chance.

The bullpen, like AAA’s, features a growing collection of MLFAs and rule5 guys, including a few signed on the eve of the season and newly introduced to Nats fans when the rosters were revealed and we were like, “Uh, who is that guy?” Gaston? Van Scoyoc? Tebrake? Linarez?

  • High-A predicted: Randall, Garcia, Polanco, Linan, Sales
  • High-A Actual: Bruni, Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Sullivan

Rotation thoughts: From predictions, Garcia made AA, Linan got flipped, and Sales started the year on the 60-day DL, so that opened up some spots. Polanco seems like he’s the LR/SS, and Sullivan got promoted up a level from where I thought he’d be last fall. It’s great to see Tejeda keeping a spot and not getting pushed to the bullpen. It should be good to see what Maddox can do; he didn’t really pitch last year. Lastly, we have a guy in Bruni who got the opening day start who was not only just a reliever last year, but struggled. I wonder if he sticks in the rotation, or if he’s actually really in the rotation, or if someone else (Polanco?) was supposed to go opening day and got hurt last minute.

Interestingly, when i shook out all the rosters on opening day, there were half a dozen names missing who I figured were headed for release … instead, a big chunk of them were added to Wilmington a few days later and are on the DL to start. Biven, Arguellas, Collins, Sthele, Tepper, and Dugas are all in that same category … wouldn’t have been surprised to see any of them released, but instead they’re on the High-A DL.

Other roster thoughts: There were a couple of kind of surprising roster assignments when the High-A roster was announced. I’ll kind of go through them one by one:

  • Hunter Hines made this team. Hines was a negligible bonus senior draftee in 2025 but not only made a full season squad but made High-A right out of the gate. Bravo there.
  • Devin Fitz-Gerald straight to High-A; this was one way to fix the log-jam of high-end SS prospects in Low-A; send one of them up. Looks like he’ll move to 2B for Feliz.
  • Also in High-A is Angel Feliz, as we suspected. Feliz likely splits time with Jorgelys Mota at 3B/DH if i’m reading the roster right.
  • I wonder if Elijah Green is there to play, or for social promotion. We’ll soon see. He got the early starts in Center, and picked right up where he left off (4 ks in first 8 ABs). It got even worse: he had a 5-k game the day before this drops, giving him 11 Ks in his first 16 ABs. He’s only 22, so High-A isn’t a reach, but with a new regime not wedded to keeping mistakes of the past, one has to wonder if/when Green gets released.
  • Marcus Brown popped up out of nowhere 2 days in; he wasn’t on the social media roster releases then suddenly was subbed into a game 2 games in.
  • The Bullpen is super heavy on MLFAs and rule5 minor league phase guys: 6 of the 12 guys. I don’t think this Front Office was impressed with what they saw down on the farm in terms of arms. However its safe to say
  • Low-A predicted: Sullivan, Johnson, Agostini, Feliz, Farias
  • Low-A actual: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt

Rotation thoughts: My 2025 predictions were awful. Sullivan in High-A, Agostini and Farias were released, and Feliz is in XST. I was sort of surprised to see both our high-end bonus picks from 2025 (Harmon and Sime) here to start; the prior regime would have absolutely started them in XST and FCL. so, bravo to see them thrown to the wolves.

The first turn through the rotation looked like a ton of “tandem starting,” where two (or in some cases three) guys each go 3 innings/50 pitches. We’ll see how this shakes out; I’d guess the leaders in the clubhouse are Portorreal, Sime, Harmon, Johnson, and Lyon. But we’ll see.

Other roster thoughts: Well, if you’ve got half a dozen SS prospects who all need playing time, you do what Low-A is doing with them. Signed as SS but playing elsewhere early on includes Ronny Cruz (2B), Luke Dickerson (3b), Coy James (LF), and Gavin Fein (RF). Trade Acquisition SS Ramirez hurting for time early on. A good problem to have: good SS can move around.

Fredericksburg is suuuuper young. Half the lineup and two of the starting pitchers are teenagers.

Who’s still in XST or missing?

Per the big board, which has been a bit challenging to keep up with this spring. there’s just a few names still hanging in XST purgatory.

  • Jackson Ross, 1B 9th rounder from High-A last year.
  • Brenner Cox, OF 4th rounder; career .177 BA who got squeezed out of the A rosters and may be done.
  • Juan Abreu, a middle reliver from Low-A last year who’s without an assignment so far.
  • 5-6 IFAs who clearly are headed to the DSL eventually, but there’s so many players listed there right now they’d overflow the XLS. I’d imagine we’re going to see at least 20 cuts from the DSL roster in the coming weeks.

Written by Todd Boss

April 9th, 2026 at 10:34 am

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching,Prospects

Skubal’s Arbitration Case should give MLB pause

5 comments

Tarik Skubal faces a possible arbitration hearing after two straight Cy Youngs. Photo via mlb.com

You can make a pretty simple argument that, in the collective, MLB players in the sport are underpaid every year by hundreds of millions of dollars. The three other major sports in the USA all have union-league agreements that generally split revenues between the players and owners 50/50 or close to it. In fy2024, here’s what MLB’s macro financial situation looked like:

Assuming 2025’s revenues come in at the $13.2B level, players are getting just 45% of revenues, which is somewhere in the range of a $660M payroll gap to the 50% line. And this $500-$600M delta has been the case for years, for more than a decade frankly.

Why does MLB have such a massive payroll discrepancy? Well, a lot of it is due to the arbitration system. Teams have undergone the gradual replacement of near-replacement level mid-30s free agents with near-replacement level pre-arb players for years, for obvious reasons, while benefitting from (sometimes drastically) underpaid pre-arb and arbitration-age players. We have had some pretty famous examples in the past:

Mike Trout’s first three full-seasons in 2012-14 produced a Rookie of the Year, an MVP, two MVP runner-ups that probably would have all been actual 1st place votes if his team was competitive, three All Star appearances, 3 Silver sluggers … and total bWAR of 27.1. Total pay for those three years? A shade under $2M. Total. After a 10-win rookie season, the Angels increased his pay by the grand total of $27,500. For that $2M in payroll, Trout provided something in the range of $200-$240M in WAR value (at $8-$9M/war estimate frequently used).

Yet, now that Trout has signed a massive extension and has struggled with injuries, many call it an albatross of a contract and one the Angels never should have signed. They got allll that value for nearly nothing a decade ago, and now are on the hook for hundreds of millions as he plays out the string.

The message is pretty clear: the sport drastically underpays its younger stars, and then teams continue to fight to underpay them, and only the lucky ones can get a long-term deal deep into their 30s to “make up” for all that time being underpaid.

Enter 2-time defending Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, who couldn’t come to an agreement on 2026 salary in his last arb year prior to the deadline, and now has filed along with the team. He’s entering his last arbitration year coming off of his second straight dominant season, and has filed for $32M in salary. Meanwhile, Detroit has filed at $19M, a laughably low figure for the player based on his accomplishments in the last two years and what he’d command on the open market, but what they filed nonetheless. In case you weren’t sure just how sh*tty teams behave in this process, Detroit actually offered Skubal $19.8M as a salary figure… then took it back and filed at a figure $800k lower.

The two sides are set to argue this week in front of a 3-person panel.

Skubal’s salary in arbitration has gone from pre-arb figures to $2.65M in 2024, to $10.15M last year. Both of those figures were pre-hearing figures, settled upon by the teams. Skubal has filed a figure that would make him the highest ever pay determined by this system. but one that seems supported based on the current market conditions.

In theory, players should be getting roughly 40%, 60%, and 80% of their fair market value in their three arb years; one has to think Skubal would get a contract with a starting AAV much better than the Cole/Snell/deGrom range (all $36-$37M/year), and perhaps closer to the Scherzer/Verlander AAV range (both got $43M in their 2022-24 range contracts). 80% of $40M is exactly $32M, or exactly what Skubal filed for. I’m not entirely sure what Detroit’s arb team would argue for, if this went to a hearing … what possible criticism could you offer a two-time defending Cy Young champ? Odds are the two sides end up meeting in the middle somewhere, unless Skubal decides he wants to set a new precedent.

Here’s the larger issue that this case illustrates pretty clearly. Baseball has a major problem with paying for player value at the time that value is delivered. Skubal should be the highest paid pitcher in the league, right now, no argument. There’s no two ways about it. Trout should have been getting immediately paid at the top of the sport’s pay cycle after his first three seasons, and he shouldn’t be getting $35M/year in his decline years. But, because Trout was screwed for so long … the fact that he’s finally getting paid seems completely fair. This is a problem across the sport, where players are paid at pre-arb salaries for 3 years that are literally “assigned” by the teams, then kept artificially low for years more. Most players are between 29-31 before they finally hit the FA market … and now on the downside of their careers.

How do you fix this? I’m not entirely sure. You need a system that gets players appropriate pay earlier in their careers, but doesn’t penalize them heavily if they get hurt. You want to give some security to players, but also to the teams. So, you’d have to be able to support all these questions:

  • If you win the MVP as a rookie, do you jump from $750k/year to $40M/year? No, of course not.
  • If you are earning $20M this year and tear your ACL on opening day, do you earn the MLB minimum the next year since you provided no value? No, that’s not feasible either.
  • Should you be forced into three years of team-assigned payroll, this following sometimes 4-5 years of even lower team assigned payroll while in the minors? No, I think that’s clearly too long.
  • Is the arb system too long? Do you eliminate it and make everyone a FA after 3 years? Well, no that’s probably too short for to be fair to teams.
  • How about a restricted FA system like the NBA uses, where there’s a period where you can find other deals and your existing team can match them?

I dunno. I’m not sure what solution is on an individual player basis.

As for Skubal, something tells me they’ll settle pre-deadline, something in the $28M/year range. There’s no way Detroit wants to go to a hearing and criticize their best player to try to argue for a blatantly under-market deal. But, you never know. Teams have done weirder things in the past, especially when it comes to Boras-represented clients.

Post publishing update: Skubal and the Tigers indeed went to the hearing, and Skubal won. His 2026 salary will be $32M, and he’ll be one of the 5-6 highest paid pitchers in the game. He sets a couple of new records:

  • Highest Arbitration salary ever awarded (previous holder: Juan Soto $31M)
  • Highest Pitcher Arbitration salary (previous holder: David Price $19.75M
  • Highest year over year Arbitration raise of $22M (prevoius holder, Jacob deGrom $9.6M raise)

Interesting nugget in the story, quoting: “Scott Boras broke such precedent by filing at $32 million, citing a rarely-used clause in the CBA and arguing players with five years of service time can compare their contracts to any player in the game, not only contracts decided via arbitration. Skubal was thus able to invoke comparisons to the likes of Zack Wheeler, who earns $42 million annually via a contract extension he signed with the Philadelphia Phillies.”

If Detroit knew this was going to happen, i’m kind of surprised they didn’t push for a pre-hearing settlement. Because, there’s literally no argument against $32M/year when you’re comparing it to Wheeler’s $42M/year. Anyway. Maybe this is an impetus to drastically alter arbitration going forward in the next CBA. We’ll see.

Written by Todd Boss

February 2nd, 2026 at 1:20 pm

Posted in Majors Pitching

So, Is that all we could get for MacKenzie Gore??

30 comments

So Long Gore. Photo wikipedia

It’s been rumored all off-season, and now a few weeks before Pitchers and Catchers report, our biggest trade asset MacKenzie Gore has been traded. Announced last night, the Nats moved Gore to Texas for a package of 5 prospects.

Here’s a quick look at those 5 prospects, with their new Nats system rank and other pertinent information:

  • shortstop Gavin Fien; 2025 1st rounder, Age 18. Our new #5 prospect (was Texas’ #2 prospect)
  • right-hander Alejandro Rosario; 2023 college 5th rounder, Age 24, AA last year, new #11 prospect
  • infielder Devin Fitz-Gerald: 2025 prep 5th rounder but over-slot bonus, age 20, new #12 prospect
  • outfielder Yeremy Cabrera: 2022 IFA, just 20, our new #17 prospect
  • first baseman/outfielder Abimelec Ortiz; 2021 NDFA, Age 3, on 40-man, hit AAA last year, new #24

First glance? I’m sorry, but is this all we could get? One 18yr old 1st rounder, two 20yr olds in low-A, a AA starter who missed all of 2025 AND just had TJ so he’s missing all of 2026 too, and a AAA utility guy? This is a major swing from a risk perspective, and the lack of additional higher-regarded prospects give me pause. The discovery (post publishing) that the 2nd best prospect is out for the entire 2026 season is even more demoralizing here.

I’m really disappointed with this return. We didn’t even get Texas’ best prospect in this deal. Maybe that’s me overvaluing Gore. On the one hand, Gore’s career numbers put him at a 98 ERA+. But at the same time, we’ve seen him be completely dominant for stretches. He’s valuable because he’s being paid a pittance for what he provides as a mid-rotation starter ($2.8M in first year Arb this year, $5.6M this year) and for 2 more years of control. He’s an innings eater who throws mid-90s from the left side; that’s worth a ton of the FA market and should have been worth more in trade.

When he didn’t go in the Winter Meetings, I thought the team should hold on to him until the Trade Deadline, when desperate teams who had lost starters to injury would be overpaying for mid-level starters. I was wrong; the new FO pulled the trigger on a deal they liked. I sense this was an underpay by Texas, but clearly the GM sees these younger guys and liked the deal.

An additional wrinkle: we’ve spoken before about the logjam of young shortstops projected to play in Fredericksburg in 2026 … well we just added two more guys who need playing time. We now add Fien and Fitz-Gerald to Willis, Feliz, Dickerson, and Mota, all of whom are likely projected to Low-A and who predominantly play SS.

What does this mean for the franchise? Insiders and those in the knew already knew this, but the signals have been strong that we’re on our way to bottoming out once again. My “casual Nats fan” pinged me last night with an immediate reaction to this trade, asking why we were getting rid of our best pitcher and I had to break it to him; we’re going to be bad for a while, so buckle up. This latter type of fan is the one who the Nats eventually will need to come back, to buy tickets, to bring the family for weekend games … but I sense a move like this, one which gets rid of one of the few players whose names they even know, is going to turn people off for a while.

I’m always excited to get more prospects into the system, as a prospect-heavy analysis site. Don’t get me wrong; can’t wait to do the spreadsheet work and try to noodle where I think these players will fit in my eventual top-100+ ranking that i’ll publish before the season starts. But I hate trading away assets and not getting enough in return, which I believe happened here.

What do you think? Am I over-valuing Gore? Did we get appropriate return here? Should we have waited til the Trade deadline 2026?

Written by Todd Boss

January 23rd, 2026 at 10:43 am

Posted in Majors Pitching,Nats in General,Prospects

Fun Exercise: Build your Dream Rotation

9 comments

So, this image floated across my Facebook feed randomly the other day, and I was struck by it. I’ve seen these done elsewhere, but never for Baseball rotations. So, i’m in.

Build your rotation. $15 max spend. Here’s my “rules” for the competition:

  • You have to pick 5 guys: you can’t pick three from the $5 line and say, “the rest are AAA starters”
  • Consider each pitcher by their peak, not by their entire career. I say this because a few of these guys tailed off badly, or are more known for their longevity.
  • Ignore the fact that some (one?) of these guys has PED associations. I guess that’s just a concern for Clemens. I didn’t end up picking him anyway.

OK here’s my team:

  • $5 Sandy Koufax: no better stretch of dominance at the end of his career.
  • $5 Pedro Martinez: he put up a 291 ERA+ season in the height of the PED era.
  • $2 Bob Feller: that’s some serious value for $2
  • $2 Curt Schilling. Twitter comments aside, he was a very good starter. Never won a Cy Young, losing out multiple times to his own teammates, else he’d be a no-brainer Hall of Famer.
  • $1 Orel Hershiser. Best in the sport for a short amount of time, short enough to cost him the Hall. I’ll take that as my 5th starter.

Who you got?

Written by Todd Boss

January 20th, 2026 at 11:03 am

Posted in Majors Pitching

Happy New Year 2026 … Let’s try this again

14 comments

Toboni has a young exec team; will it work? Photo via IG

Hello my fellow Nats fans. Happy New Year from all of us (i.e. “me”) at Nationals Arm Race. I posted this on 1/1/26, then the site immediately took a dump, but seems to be back now, so lets try this again.

Thanks for continuing to read what I have to write, to have awesome conversations in the comments, and to be fans of the sport and the team.

I wondered what would be a useful post for 1/1/26. I think i’ll ask some open ended questions and ask for predictions in the comments.

Topic 1: Will the Nats Executive Youth Movement work?

I have yet to write at all about the youth movement in the Nats front office because, well, It’s certainly worked in the past for other/better franchises than ours (Theo Epstein was 28 when he took over Boston in 2002, Jon Daniels the same age when he took over Texas in 2005, and both had great success), so I don’t really have anything to say there from a criticism or support perspective.

Now, perhaps the combination of all three of these key figures being so young is concerning.

  • Paul Toboni, 35, as President of Baseball Operations
  • Anirudh Kilambi, 31, as General Manager
  • Blake Butera, 33, as Manager (youngest in 50 years)

Toboni came from Boston, Kilambi came from Philly, and Butera came from Tampa. All three of those franchises are in far better places than we are, and each brings much needed experience to this team.

See a trend here? I do. So the question is this: What do you see this brain trust doing with the team going forward? And, do you think it will move the team in a positive direction?

Here’s my 2 cents: The Rizzo regime blew nearly a decade of drafts and left this team with the gaping hole of player development that it’s just starting to get out of. Unfortunately, he had to trade practically every major star we had in 2021 and 2022 to cover for these player development failures … and now those players are starting to push into Arbitration. Now we have a new approach heavy on data (the Nats were not exactly considered at the forefront of data usage in the league), heavy on development (where we’ve failed badly for a while), and heavy on amateur scouting (which Rizzo, despite his pedigree coming up as a scout in Arizona, grew out of in his later years).

I sense this group is going to start over, probably has pitched the ownership group a 5-year plan starting with this year’s IFA crop to be announced in a couple weeks, and then moving onto the 2026 draft, and in the meantime will trade most anything not nailed down for more prospects to help build from the bottom up. This also signals to me that the MLB product will get worse before it gets better. And it leads to my second topic:

Topic 2: Will Gore and Abrams be on the roster on Opening Day 2026?

Clearly the industry expects Gore to be moved this off-season, with his name atop most trade candidate analysis pieces. But … he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings when the buzz was hottest. The best time to get the most value out of a player is either:

  • At the Trade Deadline, when contending teams make irrational decisions in pursuit of playoffs
  • At the Winter Meetings, when everyone’s in the same building and you can play teams off each other.

Since he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings, I’m now thinking Gore sticks with us until next trade deadline and we roll the dice he stays healthy and improves the first half of next season.

Now, as for Abrams? He’s one of the worst fielding SS in the league but produces at a solid 106-107 wRC+ level the last two seasons. The SS free agent crop this off-season is pretty weak … but its not like the league can’t look up Fangraphs fielding stats themselves and see what the rest of us see. Nonetheless, His trade value is as a SS, and he needs to stick there until some rival executive swallows his analysis and says to himself, “ok we’ll deal with the defense to get the offense.” I’ve seen other blogs make the argument that Nasim Nunez should start at SS for us in 2026 and we should move Abrams to 2nd … The dumbest thing you could possibly do with a tradeable asset is to make him LESS valuable in trade by moving him to a less desirable position.

So, all that said, I’m guessing Abrams also sticks with us, plays out the first half, and we look to move him to a team that could use him at either SS or 2B and let THEM make the argument to him that its time to move off SS. I mean, if you’re Abrams and you’re looking at a 100-loss team that’s going to be this way for another couple years, and you get an offer to join a contender but you have to move to 2B … you’d have to be a fool not to jump.

Topic #3: Are we going to see more Starter Acquisitions for the 2026 Rotation?

At the end of the 2025 season in my 2026 rotation wrap-up/prediction post, I thought the 2026 rotation would look like this:

  • Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, and one from Alvarez/Irvin/Parker/Williams for the 5th.

Since then, we’ve made some moves. We signed a FA (Foster Griffen), we picked a Rule-5 Starter (Griff McGarry), and we’ve acquired a hard-throwing starter in trade with MLB experience (Luis Perales), all three of whom change this equation. I think if you laid out the Nats 40-man starter depth chart right now it’d look something like this:

  • Gore, Grey, Cavalli
  • Griffin locked in as the #4
  • Williams (as much as I hate to admit it) the early favorite for #5, if only to see if he gets some trade value in his walk year.
  • McGarry as Rule-5 is making the team, but seems likely to be in a SS/LR role. Maybe he beats out Williams for the 5th starter.
  • Alvarez proved he can pitch in the Majors and as a lefty gives the rotation/bullpen flexibility. Or, maybe he wins the 5th starter role and puts both Williams and McGarry in the pen.
  • Irvin, Parker, Lord: all seem better suited for the bullpen. All have options but it’d seem foolish to put any of them back in AAA.
  • Herz to the DL
  • Perales, Cornelio, Eder as the 1-2-3 in AAA. We just lost Lao to Japan apparently, though I’ve only seen that on social media posts and not officially in the transaction pages.

So, the salient question for the front office is this: Are you happy with this configuration, or are you making more moves? If they move Gore pre-season, that almost guarantees a Rule-5 pick and/or Alvarez is in the rotation to start the year, unless we want to roll the dice with more 5.75 ERA production from one of Irvin/Parker/Lord.

I sense this front office isn’t done making trades or signings yet.

Anyway, Happy New Year and hope to get your thoughts on these three topics to kick off January.

Written by Todd Boss

January 7th, 2026 at 9:21 am

Posted in Majors Pitching,NAR Admin,Nats in General

Happy New Year 2026!

leave a comment

New GM Paul Toboni has some big decisions ahead. Photo via IG

Hello my fellow Nats fans. Happy New Year from all of us (i.e. “me”) at Nationals Arm Race.

Thanks for continuing to read what I have to write, to have awesome conversations in the comments, and to be fans of the sport and the team.

I wondered what would be a useful post for 1/1/26. I think i’ll ask some open ended questions and ask for predictions in the comments.

Topic 1: Will the Nats Executive Youth Movement work?

I have yet to write at all about the youth movement in the Nats front office because, well, It’s certainly worked in the past for other/better franchises than ours (Theo Epstein was 28 when he took over Boston in 2002, Jon Daniels the same age when he took over Texas in 2005, and both had great success), so I don’t really have anything to say there from a criticism or support perspective.

Now, perhaps the combination of all three of these key figures being so young is concerning:

    • Paul Toboni, 35, as President of Baseball Operations
    • Anirudh Kilambi, 31, as General Manager
    • Blake Butera, 33, as Manager (youngest in 50 years)

    Toboni came from Boston, Kilambi came from Philly, and Butera came from Tampa. All three of those franchises are in far better places than we are, and each brings much needed experience to this team.

    See a trend here? I do. So the question is this: What do you see this brain trust doing with the team going forward? And, do you think it will move the team in a positive direction?

    Here’s my 2 cents: The Rizzo regime blew nearly a decade of drafts and left this team with the gaping hole of player development that it’s just starting to get out of. Unfortunately, he had to trade practically every major star we had in 2021 and 2022 to cover for these player development failures … and now those players are starting to push into Arbitration. Now we have a new approach heavy on data (the Nats were not exactly considered at the forefront of data usage in the league), heavy on development (where we’ve failed badly for a while), and heavy on amateur scouting (which Rizzo, despite his pedigree coming up as a scout in Arizona, grew out of in his later years).

    I sense this group is going to start over, probably has pitched the ownership group a 5-year plan starting with this year’s IFA crop to be announced in a couple weeks, and then moving onto the 2026 draft, and in the meantime will trade most anything not nailed down for more prospects to help build from the bottom up. This also signals to me that the MLB product will get worse before it gets better. And it leads to my second topic:

    Topic 2: Will Gore and Abrams be on the roster on Opening Day 2026?

    Clearly the industry expects Gore to be moved this off-season, with his name atop most trade candidate analysis pieces. But … he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings when the buzz was hottest. The best time to get the most value out of a player is either:

    • At the Trade Deadline, when contending teams make irrational decisions in pursuit of playoffs
    • At the Winter Meetings, when everyone’s in the same building and you can play teams off each other.

    Now, I’m thinking Gore sticks with us til next trade deadline and we roll the dice he stays healthy and improves the first half of next season.

    Now, as for Abrams? He’s one of the worst fielding SS in the league but produces at a solid 106-107 wRC+ level the last two seasons. The SS free agent crop this off-season is pretty weak … but its not like the league can’t look up Fangraphs fielding stats themselves and see what the rest of us see. Nonetheless, His trade value is as a SS, and he needs to stick there until some rival executive swallows his analysis and says to himself, “ok we’ll deal with the defense to get the offense.” I’ve seen other blogs make the argument that Nasim Nunez should start at SS for us in 2026 and we should move Abrams to 2nd … The dumbest thing you could possibly do with a tradeable asset is to make him LESS valuable in trade by moving him to a less desirable position.

    So, all that said, I’m guessing Abrams also sticks with us, plays out the first half, and we look to move him to a team that could use him at either SS or 2B and let THEM make the argument to him that its time to move off SS. I mean, if you’re Abrams and you’re looking at a 100-loss team that’s going to be this way for another couple years, and you get an offer to join a contender but you have to move to 2B … you’d have to be a fool not to jump.

    Topic #3: Are we going to see more Starter Acquisitions for the 2026 Rotation?

    At the end of the 2025 season in my 2026 rotation wrap-up/prediction post, I thought the 2026 rotation would look like this:

    • Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, and one from Alvarez/Irvin/Parker for the 5th.

    Since then, we’ve made some moves. We signed a FA (Foster Griffen), we picked a Rule-5 Starter (Griff McGarry), and we’ve acquired a hard-throwing starter in trade with MLB experience (Luis Perales), all three of whom change this equation. I think if you laid out the Nats 40-man starter depth chart right now it’d look something like this:

    • Gore, Grey, Cavalli
    • Griffin locked in as the #4
    • Williams (as much as I hate to admit it) the early favorite for #5, if only to see if he gets some trade value in his walk year.
    • McGarry as Rule-5 is making the team, but seems likely to be in a SS/LR role. Maybe he beats out Williams for the 5th starter.
    • Alvarez proved he can do the same and as a lefty gives the rotation/bullpen flexibility. Or, maybe he wins the 5th starter role and puts both Williams and McGarry in the pen.
    • Irvin, Parker, Lord: all seem better suited for the bullpen
    • Herz to the DL
    • Perales, Cornelio, Eder as the 1-2-3 in AAA. We just lost Lao to Japan apparently, though I’ve only seen that on social media posts and not officially in the transaction pages.

    So, the salient question for the front office is this: Are you happy with this configuration, or are you making more moves? If they move Gore pre-season, that almost guarantees a Rule-5 pick and/or Alvarez is in the rotation to start the year, unless we want to roll the dice with more 5.75 ERA production from one of Irvin/Parker/Lord.

    I sense this front office isn’t done making trades or signings yet.

    Anyway, Happy New Year and hope to get your thoughts on these three topics to kick off January.

    Written by Todd Boss

    January 1st, 2026 at 1:44 pm

    Posted in Majors Pitching,Nats in General

    Predicting the Nats 2026 Rotations

    19 comments

    Is Gore staying or going this off-season? Photo wikipedia

    One of my favorite posts every off-season is to try to guess what the 2026 rotations might look like, based on 2025 performance, who’s coming back from injury, who the team may or may not pursue in FA, and how many veteran MLFAs the teams needs to fill out our perennially empty AAA rotation. Here’s that off-season thought piece, which of course takes zero FA acquisitions or trades into account as of this date, and makes some strong assumptions on the health of some arms (as noted as we go).

    So, Here’s a quick analysis of where we ended 2025 and where we might start 2026 for our entire system. In each section, i’ve got the “candidates” lined up roughly from most to least-likely to be on that team, and then those that make sense to do so are pushed down to the next level.

    Yes, it’s way too early to do this. I can revisit this next Spring with updated information/transactions, then use it in early April 2026 posts when we see who the rotations are, to see how decent a job we did predicting. I’m always up for proving how bad I am at player evaluation 🙂

    MLB

    In House 40-man Candidates: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, Lord, Alvarez, Irvin, Parker, Ogasawara, Lao, Eder (Herz, Williams)

    Thoughts: Gore, assuming he doesn’t get traded, should be next year’s Opening Day starter. I’m assuming Grey is ready to go for opening day; he’ll have the entire off-season to prepare, and I can’t see any reason why he’d be delayed, even though he only got a few rehab starts in 2025. Cavalli gave the team 10 starts at a near-league average ERA+ after a long time away and had peripherals that give some hope (velocity up from 2022, Babip of .327 meaning he was a bit unlucky, etc). So, if we got Grey back to 2023 numbers when he was an All-Star, and if Gore and Cavalli pitched to their capabilities consistently, that’s a nice little 1-2-3 start to your rotation with some upside. At worse case all three are hovering around a 95-98 ERA+ as they did this year, which are all typical 3rd-4th starters. That’s the good news.

    Here’s the bad news: Irvin led the league in Earned Runs and Homers allowed, and finished dead last amongst qualified starters in FIP, fWAR, and a couple other categories. Parker would have been right there with him in dead last had he gotten a few more innings. What should you do with a guy who’s the worst starter in the league? Well duh, you should put him in the bullpen. Lord’s splits as a starter were not good: his ERA was 2 full “points” higher than as a reliever, and I think he needs to go back to the pen, as much as I like his ascension story to the majors. Alvarez’s debut couldn’t have gone better, but is he a MLB starter? Nobody seems thinks so; he got almost zero prospect love in his career, and I sense he’ll be a rotation placeholder, morphing into the classical 4-A rubber-armed multi-role lefty for this team for the next few years until he runs out of minor league options, but he held his own and (for now) is probably the 4th or 5th starter in 2026.

    I don’t buy Ogasawara as a MLB-capable starter; I sense he’s heading to AAA to prove (or disprove) my theory in 2026. Waiver pickup Lao actually had great AAA numbers this year as a starter and was only up in the MLB bullpen to fill a hole at the end of the season; maybe he competes for the 5th starter job next year. Same with trade acquisition Eder, though his AAA numbers weren’t nearly as good. I don’t sense Herz or Williams will be ready to go for opening day 2026; certainly not Herz, but Williams’ “brace” surgery may get him back quicker. Even if he was 100% healthy, he was abhorrent as a starter in 2025 despite his near all-star performance the first half of 2024, and I sense he should be in the bullpen going forward. So, for now they’re all out of the running.

    So, what does that leave us with? Three acceptable starters and a bunch of question marks. How much is this team willing to spend on the open market? A 66-96 team is more than one Starting Pitcher away from competing, so my guess is, another mid-level $10M/year starter, open competition for the 5th starter job, hope for incremental improvements from Gore/Grey/Cavalli, and hope for some help coming up from guys who are in AA or AAA right now.

    Prediction for 2026:

    • Rotation: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, Alvarez or a spring training competition for 5th.
    • Lord, Irvin, Parker to MLB bullpen
    • DL: Herz, Williams
    • Ogasawara, Lao in AAA rotation
    • Eder in AAA bullpen

    AAA

    In House Candidates: Lao, Eder, Ogasawara, Solesky, Sampson, Conley, Shuman, Luckham, Cornelio, Bennett

    Thoughts: First off, we have four guys likely out the door here as being one year MLFAs (Sampson, Conley) who never earned their way up, and another couple guys (Solesky and Shuman) who I believe are be at the end of their 6year runs with us (both will be 28 this offseason, both had 5+ ERAs in AAA, and both seem like they’ve done all they can done in the game). So, I’m assuming these four are gone for consideration next year, at least as starters. The whole Covid year and what it did to FAs still confuses me, so I may have it wrong here, but even if they’re still under contract, neither merits another year in the rotation based on 2025 performance.

    Despite being in the MLB bullpen for most of September, Lao, Eder, and Ogasawara have been primarily starters for their minor league careers and one would think the team would want to see if they can continue. Especially Lao, who had really good AAA starting numbers in Seattle’s system before inexplicably getting waived in September. However, I could also see the argument (especially for Eder) of trying them in the bullpen. I’m not sure Luckham has what it takes to succeed as a starter, so I can see him moving into the Shuman role for next year (LR/SS).

    So that leaves Lao, Cornelio, and Ogasawara returning to the AAA rotation for another year, joined by Bennett rising up, and then filled out with a MLFA signing. I can’t really see the team dumping the three vanquished starters (Lord, Parker, Irvin) to AAA. We might see Susana back earlier than expected and he could fit in here relatively soon. But opening day 2026, this makes sense.

    The team also still has Lara and Adon, both former starters, and one (Lara) still with some prospect love, who pitched their way out of starter roles and who both had abhorrent numbers in the pen in 2025. Could the team return to them as starters? I don’t think so, even if we need them. We need to see if they can contribute at the MLB level out of the bullpen.

    Prediction for 2026:

    • Rotation: Lao, Ogasawara, Cornelio, Bennett, veteran MLFA
    • MLFA/released: Solesky, Sampson, Conley, Shuman
    • To the bullpen: Luckham to bullpen as Long reliever/Spot Starter, Eder to bullpen as lefty specialist.

    AA

    In House Candidates: Kent, Clemmey, Tolman, Choi, Atencio, Sthele (Susana, Stuart, Sykora hurt)

    Thoughts: The Nats late-season promotions of basically the entire season-ending AA rotation was the latest demonstration of their typical pattern of starter handling: they like to get starters’ feet wet in the new level before the new season, so we basically already know what most of the opening day AA rotation will look like. Kent, Clemmey, and Tolman all excelled in High-A this year, earned promotions, and struggled in short AA stints. They make perfect sense to start in AA, though Tolman seems to be more suited at this point as a multi-role reliever, so I’m projecting him to the pen. Atencio sat the entire 2025 season on the AA D/L: He was assigned to Harrisburg on Opening Day, then hit the DL before he could make a start. If he’s ready to go for opening day 2026, then he’s here. He was already planned on being part of the 2025 AA rotation, so I’d imagine he’ll come right back here when healthy. If not, maybe we’re pushing Tolman back into the rotation.

    Choi, the 2024 minor league rule5 pickup, was up and back from AAA without holding onto his spot and makes sense to start in AA again. I’d imagine he’d make sense to start in the rotation until Susana is ready to go: if Susana is ready opening day, then we have to make a decision on one of Choi, Sthele, or Atencio.

    When Susana is ready to go, you either push Choi to bullpen, demote Atencio, or send Susana straight to AAA. I mean, why not? He had 11 AA starts this year and struck out 70 in 47 innings; what exactly does he have left to prove there? I’m sure AAA could find room (Ogasawara to bullpen, or something).

    Prediction for 2026:

    • Rotation: Kent, Clemmey, Choi, Sthele, Atencio
    • D/L: Susana, Stuart, Sykora
    • To the Bullpen: Tolman as LR/SS

    High-A

    Candidates: Randall, Garcia, Meckley, Swan, Linan, Polanco, Tepper, Tejeda, Sales

    Thoughts: Last year it seemed like Low-A was the place where we’d have a traffic jam; 2026 will be High-A. I count 9-10 legitimate candidates for the High-A roster next year. Lets talk about them.

    Randall only had 16 low-A starts before getting pushed up to High-A and traded to us, but was also a 2024 3rd rounder from a decent baseball school (San Diego), so I can’t see him going back down; he will be in High-A for sure. Garcia got solid 2024 draft bonus and dominated Low-A before his promotion: he’s guaranteed to be in this rotation again in 2026 based on his “investment.” Meckley is kind of like Garcia but lesser on all counts; less draft bonus, lesser performance; I think he’s a victim of numbers and heads to the bullpen. Swan started this season in LA’s High-A team, finished it in ours, and showed basically the same stuff year long: good arm but wild. I think he repeats High-A but could also get socially promoted if a need arises given. He could also go into the pen and transition to a high K reliever.

    Linan only gave us one High-A start before hitting the DL: he had the best numbers of the three trade acquisitions for their prior teams and probably will be one of the first to move up. But what was his injury? I’m putting either Linan on the opening-day DL, based on ending 2025 on the DL. Post publish update: Thanks to commenter Will for pointing this out: Linan has been put on the AFL roster and is pitching in Arizona, so therefore we can assume his injury was minor. I’m revamping the below prediction as a result.

    Polanco just turned 24 and just finished a full season making 23 starts for Low-A; he’s moving up, with nothing left to prove in Low-A. He’s gonna either sink or swim in High-A. Tepper spent entire 2025 on the DL and his usage has been all over the road; I’m not sure he’s ready to be a starter, so I’m guessing he goes to the pen. Tejeda suddenly stopped pitching on August 3rd, but was a gun-slinging 6′ 8″ effective starter before that; i’m hoping nothing bad happened, and with Linan confirmed healthy i’ll hedge and start Tejeda on the DL. Trade acquisition Sales finished off a great year in Low-A, pitching well for both his old and new teams despite being “just” a 10th rounder; he’s solved Low-A and has to be here.

    I could make the argument that Randall is less effective than Swan and those two switch places. Or, you could look at Swan’s K/9 rate and think ‘high end closer’ and put him in the pen.

    If Linan is healthy, what happens? He’s a bit young yet for AA and definitely needs more High-A time, so perhaps he pushes Tejeda to the bullpen. Or, perhaps Tejeda is still hurt from whatever injury he sustained on or about August 3rd. But for now, here’s what i’m thinking:

    With Linan confirmed healthy, but Tejeda not necessarily, I’m putting Linan in rotation and Tejeda on DL to start 2026. If Tejeda is indeed healthy … then someone has to head to the pen, because I think Tejeda needs to start for now. I think if this comes to pass, you’re moving Polanco to the bullpen.

    Prediction for 2026:

    • Rotation: Randall, Garcia, Polanco, Linan, Sales
    • D/L: Tejeda
    • To the Bullpen: Meckley, Tepper, Swan

    Low-A

    Candidates: Sullivan, Romero, Johnson, Agostini, Farias, Feliz plus 2026 college draftees Tonghini, Maddox, Moore, Biven, Huesman, Puk

    Thoughts:

    Sullivan, the 2023 draftee, missed basically a year and a half, but has more or less dominated Low-A in the 9 cumulative starts he’s made there. He’ll turn 24 in May of next year and really does no good in Low-A, but there’s just too many arms so he starts in Low-A again. He returns. Same with Johnson, who made 8 low-A starts with a 5-something ERA this year as a very old 2025 draft signing. Romero made 14 Low-A starts, missing a month or so of time, with middling results; he’s heading to the bullpen. Agostini missed most of 2025 with injury but is a solid prospect; he should return if healthy.

    Two new names moving up from FCL for next year should be Feliz and Farias. Feliz is looking like a solid prospect and is starting to get top-20 prospect love; he had a 2.20 ERA in the FCL this year after posting a 2.96 ERA in the DSL last year. He moves up and is an important young arm for us. Farias wasn’t great in the FCL this year but is already 23 and kind of has to move up; i’m putting him as the 5th starter in 2026 unless the team wants to compete him with one of the 2025 college guys.

    All six college 2025 draftees are mentioned in Low-A to begin 2026, but I think all of them will go straight to the bullpen based on their college usage and pro potential. We’ll summarize our 2025 draft day posts here briefly; Tonghini was a setup-guy at Arizona. Maddox was a college SEC starter but a senior sign/5.56 ERA guy. Moore was a bullpen guy his first two years in college and pitched his way out of ODU’s bullpen before getting drafted, but wasn’t great as a starter. Biven was a swingman at Louisville. Huesman barely pitched at all at Vanderbilt, and Puk was a multi-inning Opener for FIU. None of our drafted college arms really project to be useful rotation pieces. The best option to start would be either Maddox or Moore if they need an arm.

    Prediction for 2026:

    • Rotation: Sullivan, Johnson, Agostini, Feliz, Farias
    • D/L:
    • To the Bullpen: Romero, Tonghini, Maddox, Moore, Biven, Huesman, Puk

    FCL

    Candidates: Harmon, Sime, Lunar, Portorreal, Reyes, Carela, Gimenez

    Thoughts: Harmon and Sime are our two big bonus prep arms from the 2025 draft: I suppose its possible they start in Low-A in 2026, but that typically hasn’t been the MO of this team with its high school draftees. I’m guessing they do XST, ease into pitching, start in FCL and then maybe move up to Low-A later in the summer if they blow away their fellow teenagers in the complex league.

    Lunar and Portorreal repeat FCL after middling 2025 results. Both are still relatively young as a 24IFA and 23IFA respectively. I’m guessing they make way for the three more promising arms coming up from the DSL and move to the bullen.

    Moving up from the DSL are the three best starter prospects from the island this year in Reyes, Carela, and Gimenez. All three pitched solidly and it will be interesting to see how they fare. Reyes is a bit older as a 23IFA, while the other two didn’t start the year in the DSL rotation but pitched their way there as 24IFAs. None of these three were big money IFA signings, so they’ll be on a short leash.

    One thing to keep in mind: the team loves using the FCL as a rehab weigh-station, so it’s entirely possible the “rotation” ends up being 4 guys and a rotation rehab start; they did this for a while this year.

    Prediction for 2026:

    • Rotation: Harmon, Sime, Reyes, Carela, Gimenez
    • D/L:
    • To the Bullpen: Portorreal, Lunar

    DSL

    Candidates: Torrellas, De La Cruz, Robles, Mejia, Carrasco, Reynoso, plus 26IFA class

    Thoughts: Torrellas, De La Cruz, and Robles finished 2025 in the rotation. Mejia and Carrasco were in the rotation to start 2025 but pitched their way out; they could get another shot but seem more likely to head to the pen. Reynoso is an unknown, having pitched in 2024 then missed all of 2025; i’d guess he’s bullpen bound.

    The team signed 6 arms last January; not one of them featured in the 2025 rotation. Perhaps we’ll see some of them step up, but it doesn’t seem likely. Not one 25IFA arm had decent numbers this season. However, they also didn’t feature a single 24IFA signing in the 2024 rotation, preferring to bring them onboard a bit more slowly. The Nats havn’t really focused big bonus dollars on arms lately; just one non-trivial bonus amount in the last several drafts (Jose Feliz for $120k in 2023, then several guys in the 2021 class who are already gone), so it’s little surprise they struggle to find competent starters in the DSL.

    Prediction for 2026:

    • Rotation: Torrellas, De La Cruz, Robles, plus two 25IFA or 26IFAs.
    • D/L:
    • To the Bullpen: Mejia, Carrasco, Reynoso

    Ok, so that’s what we’re looking at. This may change as we do MLFA releases and signings this coming off-season, or if we add/remove players via trade.

    I hope I didn’t miss anyone, but let me know if i’m missing someone obvious and/or if you think i’m crazy.

    Written by Todd Boss

    October 14th, 2025 at 4:30 pm

    Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching,Prospects

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