The first shop to try to do a major rank of Nationals prospects (Prospects1500) has dropped its rankings for our system. Let’s walk through their ranks and I’ll add some comments.
I have a draft 2025 ranking for our system that (believe it or not) goes out to 90 or so guys, which is kind of ridiculous when we currently (according to the Big Board) have 150 signed minor leaguers domestically. But, even given that my draft list is 90 deep, Prospects1500 still managed to rank three players that I don’t have in my top 90, and who have been ranked for the very first time on any list. We’ll get to them later, and discuss whether they should have even been ranked.
Here’s the top 50 for Prospects1500 in a quick table format:
| Rank | Last Name | First Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crews | Dylan | OF (CF) |
| 2 | House | Brady | SS/3B |
| 3 | Sykora | Travis | RHP (Starter) |
| 4 | King | Seaver | SS |
| 5 | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) |
| 6 | Morales | Yohandy | 3B |
| 7 | Clemmey | Alex | LHP (Starter) |
| 8 | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) |
| 9 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) |
| 10 | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) |
| 11 | Wallace | Cayden | 3B |
| 12 | Lomavita | Caleb | C |
| 13 | Hurtado | Victor | OF |
| 14 | Stuart | Tyler | RHP (Starter) |
| 15 | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) |
| 16 | Lara | Andry | RHP (Starter) |
| 17 | Dickerson | Luke | SS/CF |
| 18 | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) |
| 19 | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) |
| 20 | Pinckney | Andrew | OF (Corner) |
| 21 | Feliz | Angel | 3B/SS |
| 22 | Made | Kevin | SS |
| 23 | Ramirez Jr. | Rafael | SS |
| 24 | Rutledge | Jackson | RHP (Starter) |
| 25 | Lord | Brad | RHP (Starter) |
| 26 | Bazzell | Kevin | C/3B |
| 27 | Reifert | Evan | RHP (Reliever) |
| 28 | Feliz | Jose | RHP (Starter) |
| 29 | Baker | Darren | 2B |
| 30 | Brzykcy | Zach | RHP (Reliever) |
| 31 | Ribalta | Orlando | RHP (reliever) |
| 32 | Cruz | Armando | SS |
| 33 | Grissom | Marquis | RHP (Reliever) |
| 34 | De La Rosa | Jeremy | OF (Corner) |
| 35 | Millas | Drew | C |
| 36 | White | T.J. | OF (Corner) |
| 37 | Kent | Jackson | LHP (Starter) |
| 38 | Shuman | Seth | RHP (Starter) |
| 39 | Alvarez | Andrew | LHP (Starter) |
| 40 | Acosta | Daison | RHP (reliever) |
| 41 | Cox | Brenner | OF (CF) |
| 42 | Jones | Sir Jamison | CA |
| 43 | Choi | Hyun-Il | RHP (Starter) |
| 44 | Glasser | Phillips | SS |
| 45 | Mota | Jorgelys | SS |
| 46 | Cooper | Everett | SS |
| 47 | Chapparo | Andres | 1B/DH |
| 48 | Quintana | Roismar | 1B/OF |
| 49 | Narango | Joe | 1B |
| 50 | Pimentel | Brandon | 1B |
Now, lets do some reactions.
- Their top 5 for our system is essentially the same as every other shop’s top 5, in some order or another. You can quibble with House/Sykora for #2.
- The first bogey; Morales comes in at #6. They’re putting a ton of weight on his AA finish last year. He hit .206 in April but then .357 in September in the same league. I still think this is too high; if he’s 1B only I need to see more homers (just 7 in 435 ABs so far professionally).
- They like Daylen Lile slightly more than me, but so does everyone. Every scouting report I see on this guy says he’s a great contact hitter and a great base-runner. So, where’s the stats? Career .262 batting average (that’s elite bat-to-ball skills?) and just 50 Sbs 255 career games? A .351 OBP for his career? What am I missing here? What makes him any better than Jake Alu (career minor league slash line of .282/.342/.437 with 57 SBs in 420 minor league games, but with more power). I see a 5th OF ceiling. He’s only 22 and in AA, fair point, but he’s also going to be rule-5 eligible after 2025. Based on what you’ve seen, would you protect him right now?
- Victor Hurtado at #13. I’m at least 10 spots lower on this guy right now, and I wonder if they’re looking at the same guy I am. Their line in the link is, “Hurtado is very young but performed well in the Rookie league and has solid tools across the board. He’s one to keep an eye on in this tier.” Uh; “performed well?” He hit .218 in the DSL this season, with almost no speed, no power, and a 2/1 K/BB ratio. Did anyone check this guy’s stats before they wrote that line? Where’s the ranking for the DSL guys who actually hit this year? Missing, that’s where. We’ll get to that at the bottom when we talk about players not in their top 50.
- They’re lower on Andry Lara than they should be. Quote: “ Lara was a highly touted international signing whose results haven’t matched the ability in his four years with the organization.” Um, again, what are these guys watching? Lara, as a 22yr old, got promoted to AA after a month, then had a 3.63 ERA in 19 starts. Yes, in the macro his minor league stats don’t look that great … but year after year he’s been in leagues where he was among the youngest players there, pitchers or hitters. I’ve got Lara well inside our top 10, not buried in the teens.
- They’re a little higher on Vaquero (18) and Bennett (19) than I am. I’m just not impressed with the size of your signing bonus versus your on-the-field accomplishments. As for Bennett, maybe it isn’t fair to ding him for TJ, but after what we’ve seen from Cavalli, i’m gun shy for sure.
- Kevin Made: this guy seems to be a favorite of prospect hounds everywhere. I don’t see it. I see a guy who has no power and little speed who was the “flier prospect guy” in a deadline deal trade. I’ve got him ranked in the 30s, not just outside the top 20.
- Rutledge and Lord: a tale of two approaches. I see Lord as someone who is still proving in AAA they can be an effective starter, while Rutledge is proving he’s a 2-pitch guy who needs to be a reliever. One of these profiles has much more value than the other: can you guess which one? As a result, i’ve got Lord in the mid-teens and Rutledge outside the top 30 on my rankings, not ranked side by side like this shop.
- They’re not fans of Bazzell at all: MLBpipeline has him #14 in the system.
- Brzycky and Ribalta: i’ve said my peace on ranking relievers. I won’t rank a middle reliever in my top 30 anymore. Even the better middle relievers in our bullpen are barely worth half a win a season, and the best of them (Law and Florio last year) were in the 1.6-1.9 range). It’s far more likely we call up these two guys, they get shelled, they go back down, and they ahve negative bWAR (that describes precisely what all of these guys did in 2024: Adon, Weems, Barnes, Brzycky, Ribalta, and Willingham).
At this point we’re in the 30-50 range, so it’s a little harder to be critical, so I’ll just highlight guys that I think they’re way off on.
- Jeremy De la Rosa at #34: he hit .167 in High-A … then got promoted to AA where he hit .161. He’s now spent parts of 3 seasons in Wilmington and has not been competent. Is he a prospect at all? I mean, they have him above Millas, who a lot of readers right now think should be the backup MLB catcher. I’ve got De la Rosa 30 spots lower in my ranks.
- TJ White: see comments about De la Rosa above for the most part.
- Jackson Kent was ranked #24 by MLBpipeline but 37 by these guys; a season on the field should resolve this.
- They have little faith in Andrew Alvarez.
- They still have Brennar Cox ranked, which seems crazy at this point. Exhibit 1-A on the risks of drafting HS kids.
- Thus, its fitting that they have Sir Jamison Jones at #42, right below Cox. Another prep Catcher who could be decent, could go nowhere. What’s odd is, they put Jones in their top 50 but not a couple of DR prospects who actually hit this year (Dashyll Tejeda and Carlos Tavares). I did not have Jones in my top 90, perhaps an oversight.
- Then, perhaps the oddest rankings on their list: #49 and #50 are two 1B only guys in Naranjo and Pimentel, a MLFA and NDFA. Naranjo hit .208 in Wilmington for us in 2024. Pimentel hit .274 in Fredericksburg … as a 24-yr old man amongst kids. I didn’t have either of these guys in my top 90, but i’ve put them in the 70+ range for now.
Who’s missing?
- As mentioned above, a couple of DSL decent performers for 2024
- Cole Henry: probably not a surprise.
- No Nasim Nunez, who b-r.com has exhausting his rookie status in 2024. By service time, not by PAs. If you wanted to quibble and be like some shops that ignore service time and go by PAs/IPs, i’d have Nunez in the mid 40s.
- Not much else to mention; there’s some names outside their top 50 that have gotten a bit of prospect love in the past (Peterson, Cabrera, Brown, Saenz, etc) who don’t really merit it anymore.
That’s the first big prospect rank. What do you think?