Nationals Arm Race

Here’s Boswell’s 7/5/11 chat.  As always, I read the question, write my own answer then interpret Boswell’s answer.  All questions are paraphrased from the chatroom for clarity here.

Q: Should the Nats move Espinosa to Short, making room for Rendon?

A: I believe the Nats may eventually consider moving Danny Espinosa to shortstop to make way for either Anthony Rendon but perhaps Steve Lombardozzi in the near future.  For the beginning of 2012 season?  I doubt it.  Yes, Ian Desmond has been hitting ridiculously badly, but he’s a plus defender at Short with an absolute gun of an arm.  He’s cut way down on errors and mental mistakes.  We all believe Espinosa can handle the position (he was a grade-A short stop at Long Beach State), but the right answer may be to give Desmond one more full season before pulling the trigger.  Any move would be done in a spring training presumably.  (Boswell more or less agrees, saying Lombardozzi will be a full time MLBer, Desmond moves too much in the box, and that Espinosa has better hands but not as much range).

Q: Did Harper skip high-A because of Potomac’s field situation?

A: Great question.  Personally I believe Potomac’s field disaster factored into the situation.  Perhaps part protection of Bryce Harper (who was promoted to AA over the weekend and went 2/3 in his AA debut), part penalization of the ownership/management of the  Potomac franchise (which they must believe has botched this badly, to be giving away home dates).  Of course there is the plain fact that Harper, despite his young age, held his own against AA-calibre talent and higher in 2010’s Arizona Fall League and he may just be ready for AA.  (Boswell punts on the question, quoting Rizzo who said “the field is fine, it had nothing to do with it.”  A non-answer.)

Q: What are the chances Michael Morse wins the “last man standing” all-star vote?

A: I’ll say slim, based on who he’s up against (here’s a link to the voting).  Ethier, Helton, Victorino, and Ian Kennedy are the candidates.  I’d guess that either Victorino or Helton wins, though Ethier is a deserving candidate.  Nobody’s heard of Michael Morse unfortunately.  (Boswell thinks Philly fans will vote in Victorino).

Q: Is Ryan Zimmerman’s new throwing motion working?

A: It seems not; if anything its causing even more problems.  Zimmerman used to make most of his errors on relatively routine throws over to first; if he’s making a throw under duress it is usually spot on.  So the new motion is designed to remove the scatter-arm throws.  But now, instead of making a routine throw and it getting into his head, he’s got this new motion into his head.  I can’t see how its an improvement.  For me when playing the answer was always to go to a side arm motion to gain accuracy but I was playing from middle-infield positions that didn’t require long, overhand throws like what the third baseman has to do.  (Boswell thinks it is working and that Zimmerman needs a bit longer to get comfortable with it).

Q: Was it too early, too late or the right time to promote Harper?

A: From a productivity standpoint it was probably too late; he clearly owned how-A pitching after just a few weeks.  But, from a “learning how to be a baseball player” standpoint its just right.  Finish out a half, a playoff-run, get a bunch of road trips in and get used to playing day after day.  Now he can move up and get challenged by better pitching.  Personally I would have put him in high-A for an incremental improvement.  Run him up to AA if he dominated in Potomac, else start him at AA next year with an eye to move him quickly to AAA.  I think there’s value in growing into your role.  (Boswell says it was the right time to promote, but not to which level, and then compares Harper’s minor league splits to A-Rods and Ken Griffey Jr’s).

Q: How much credit should we give Rizzo the GM for 4 specific moves that paid off (Ramos-Capps, Willingham trade, letting Dunn walk and failing to get Greinke)?

A: I give Rizzo some good, some bad for his moves over the past year or so.  The Ramos for Capps trade was spectacular.  The Guzman trade (something for nothing) was quality.  His purchase of Bixler has turned out well.  I think we got fleeced on the Willingham deal frankly and think this team could have used the offense.  Dunn was never going to stay here so I don’t know how much credit you can give Rizzo for purposely picking up the draft picks.  He overpaid badly for Werth (for reasons that have been discussed ad-naseum here and were bigger than just the player).  I liked the acquisition of Gorzelanny for what we gave up.  His two rule5 draft picks were garbage.  Cora and Nix on minor league contracts has turned out great.  He got a decent AA starter for Gonzalez but a middling low-A infielder for Morgan.  He wanted and was going to pay for Greinke, who i think is vastly over-rated, had one good season and is by no means an “ace” in this league.  He’s a solid guy but not a $100m pitcher.  (Boswell points out the Hanrahan-Burnett deal is looking bad for the Nats; I’ll defend the Nats there since Hanrahan was SO bad for us.  Boswell also mentions Aaron Crow for some reason; that non-signing was 110% on Bowden, not Rizzo).

Q: Are Nats buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

A: This answer will vary day by day between now and 7/31 honestly.  If the Nats go on a 5 game losing streak they’re selling like mad. Right this moment, they’re probably doing nothing, stuck into inactivity by virtue of their .500 record and proximity to the wild card race.  (Boswell agrees, saying the team’s record on July 28th is what matters).

Q: Will the Nats over pay and sign Marquis and Livan for next season?

A: God I hope not.  Marquis should be jettisoned to make way for Strasburg’s return.  Livan is worth 1.5-2m/per, but not much more.  If he demands more cut him loose.  Livan at this point is merely a holding over pitcher until our farm system prospects pan out.  (Boswell seems to think that Detwiler could make an able replacement for Marquis, either this August/September or later on).

Q: Is Werth unable to get around on fastballs?

A: I don’t have enough video evidence to offer an opinion.  Boswell says he’s just trying too hard, his mechanics are out of whack.

Q: Thoughts on the all-star rosters?

A: Havn’t even looked at them.  Looking them up to comment here.  Don’t care really; the all-star rosters will always have too many Red Sox, too many Yankees and too many Asians from ballot-box stuffing.  I can’t stand the “every team must be represented” issue, which dilites the team and gives players cheap all star appearances.  I think the fact that the world series home field advantage depends on this exhibition is beyond ridiculous.  So doing a 2500 word column nit picking the all-star selections is just July column filler for most baseball writers.  For me its like complaining about the BCS: its never going to change.  Let other people bitch about the fact that Derek Jeter has basically been awful this year, not the best.

I will say that the manager’s selecting the pitchers is ridiculous.  Yes Vogelsong has had a great season but he’s not who the fans want to see in the all star game, nor is he one of the best 15 pitchers in the league.  Picking middle relievers?  Ridiculous as well.

(Boswell says he likes the rosters and won’t waste an answer on what could give him an easy column!)

Q: How much money is Pujols’ injury- and poor-performance season costing him?  Would he take a 1-year deal to regain value?
A: Great question.  I think Pujols poor season has already cost him a shot at a 10-yr/$300M contract that many spoke of.  He’s clearly going to lose years and value.  I think he deserves a 7yr deal that pays him more per-annum than A-rod, and it may be what he’s shooting for.  I do not think he’ll take a one-year deal.  Too much can go wrong, too risky.  Even if he doesn’t get the years and money he seeks, you cannot blow the opportunity to guarantee hundreds of millions of dollars.  (Boswell wouldn’t even give him 7 years right now).

Q: Could Lombardozzi come up and force a replacement of Desmond in 2011?

A: No way.  There’s little value in yanking Desmond in mid-august, forcing Espinosa to move to shortstop with no work all year and possibly disrupt a Rookie-of-the-Year season AND do the 40-man move to add Lombardozzi just for a few games in the bigs.   (Boswell answered by defending Desmond, calling him a 10-year career shortstop.  He needs to start hitting though).

Q: Comments on the Soriano “hit” that scored 2 runs?

A: An official scorer just can’t give Bernadina an error on a ball that drops in front of him, despite it clearly being a fielding mistake.  Its one more piece of evidence showing how inaccurate ERAs are for pitchers.  Zimmermann had Soriano popped up and was out of the inning; suddenly he’s given up 2 earned runs that he didn’t deserve.  To me, it looked like Bernadina lost the ball in the over-cast sky.  (Boswell points out that the play perfectly encapsulates why the team doesn’t think Bernadina is the long term answer in center.  Well, duh, I could have told you that was the case long before this play!)

Q: Why aren’t the Nats hitting?/How much accountability does Rick Eckstein have in this situation?

A: Honestly, I’ve never thought that a hitting coach really could impact what a major leaguer could do.  Be it out of respect, or lack thereof.  If everyone thinks Werth’s mechanics are out of whack, why hasn’t he fixed them?  Its an easy video fix right?

Werth is trying too hard.  Espinosa’s babip is awful.  Desmond just isn’t that good.  Morse is good but has holes that pundits/scouts like Keith Law think are going to get exposed.  Zimmerman is just getting back in the saddle.  Willingham and Dunn (despite what they’re doing in 2010) were stable, high OBP forces in this lineup and when they left, there was major disruption.  LaRoche has always been a slow starter, complicated (as we eventually found out) by a bad shoulder injury.  (Boswell ducked the question as I have, but gives some interesting analysis of just how not-so-bad the team really is offensively right now).

Q: Why is Nyjer Morgan suddenly good again?  Same question for Kearns, Felipe Lopez and (possibly) Werth?

A: Morgan needed a change of scenery, and has taken advantage of it.  Same goes for Hanrahan, and in that respect that trade has worked out well for Pittsburgh.  Kearns never wanted to be traded here; he is from Kentucky and liked it in Cincinnati.  Once he got his balloon payment here he never earned the contract.  Lopez is a special case; a good player with an awful attitude, and he’s earned a one-way ticket out of several towns by now.  I wouldn’t put Werth in any of these classes; he’s hard-nosed, plays hard, doesn’t play dirty, doesn’t show-boat, and takes his craft seriously.  (Boswell just says that change of scenery is sometimes good, without throwing (especially) Lopez under the bus).

Q: Why is Sean Burnett still on the roster?

A: True, his 2011 numbers have been pretty bad.  But one really bad game can make 3 weeks worth of good look awful.  Look at his game logs; he’s been pretty good lately except for one or two blow ups.  The team needs a loogy, Burnett actually gives them more than just a one-out guy, and he was pretty good last year.  Way too early to give up on him, to say nothing of the fact that there’s very little in AAA or even AA to replace him.  We’re still trying to replace our actual LOOGY Slaten, signing JC Romero and possibly looking at Severino or even Chico at some point.  (Boswell agrees).

Q: What are we going to do with Rendon?

A: Wait for him to prove he belongs, then find a spot.  He hasn’t signed yet, could get injured again and be a total bust, or he could hit like the 2nd coming of Alex Rodriguez in the minors and shoot up to earn MLB at bats inside a year.  If he forces his way onto the roster then you make room for him.  Install him at 2nd, move Espinosa to short.  Or, put Rendon in left and keep your current MI.  Maybe Zimmerman wants out of town after 2013 and Rendon naturally moves to third.  Maybe the entire team gets hit by a bus and we start over from scratch.  Way too much can happen with minor league prospects to make intelligent predictions til they get to AAA.  (Boswell’s answer rambled on about the state of the team … saying we’re much further along than intimated in the question).

Q: Why are the crowds booing Jayson Werth?

A: Probably because he’s in an extended slump, combined with a massive paycheck that most of us now have been told is vastly over-paying him.  Nobody likes it when an overpaid co-worker struggles with his assignments; it makes you really question why you’re working at that job in the first place.  Trust me, if he starts hitting the boo-ing will stop.   (Boswell kinda understands the crowd’s displeasure with Werth right now).

Q: Is Werth miscast as a team leader?

A: Perhaps.  I think clearly in Philadelphia he was one of many hitting cogs in a powerful lineup and they covered for each other.  Now, he’s much more in focus (especially with LaRoche’s issues and Zimmerman’s absence).  However, does he HAVE to be a leader by virtue of his contract?  No.  Zimmerman is a natural leader, as is Desmond.  We have veteran pitching that can take the media brunt.  But lets be honest; we don’t live in NYC with a 24-hour yankees news cycle.  There’s, what, 5 beat reporters in total for this team (Ladson, Goessling, Kilgore, Zuckerman and Comack), so that’s not a ton of people asking you questions night after night.  (Boswell agrees, Werth doesn’t have good media presence).

Q: Did the Lerner’s err in naming Davey Johnson as the new manager?

A: Can’t say just quite yet.  Johnson was clearly an excellent manager in his time.  Has the game passed him by?  Unlike in professional football, where clearly Joe Gibbs was exposed as being too old and too out of touch with the modern game during his return to the sidelines for the Washington Redskins, Baseball strategy and management moves at a slower pace.  Since Johnson last managed, there are no major changes in the rules of the game or the basic strategy.  If anything, the major change in the game lies in the renewed emphasis on defense and pitching in the steroid-less game.  Statistics and analysis has vastly increased in importance, but Johnson was already ahead of the curve in those departments when he was managing (and he was a Math major to boot, meaning he should not be wary of such heavy numerical analysis in the sport).  That all being said, only time will tell.  What was the team lacking under Riggleman that Johnson can bring to the table?  Perhaps the answer is basic; accomplishment and veteran respect.  (Boswell ridiculed the question and picked at its points, as opposed to talking about what Johnson may bring to the table).

Q: Do the Nationals ushers need to do more to enforce fan etiquette at the stadium?

A: Probably.  The questioner complains about people being allowed to move freely mid-inning.  I don’t notice a ton while I go to games, because our season tickets are relatively close to the field and the movement here and there isn’t too bad to notice.  We did experience a rather concerning issue on 7/4; we apparently had duplicate tickets to others that we found sitting in our seats.  We never really asked to see the tickets in question (not wanting to irk the woman sitting in our seats, who was clearly combative).  But the usher mentioned that the day before he saw no less than FOUR tickets issued for the same seat.  That doesn’t make any sense to me really; the seats are all season ticket-owned seats in the 100 sections.  Something weird is going on.  (Boswell says the questioner makes good sense).

Werth is catching a lot of criticism for his performance lately. photo: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images NA

WP columnist Tom Boswell conducted his weekly chat today 6/20/11, via the Washington Post chat pages.  Boswell heavily covered the US Open and took a number of questions on Rory McIlroy and the tournament, but he did field some Nats questions.

As always, the questions below are paraphrased from their original asking for space and levity.

Q: Is Jayson Werth already a bust?
A: I think there’s some impatient Nats fans out there.  Yeah he’s hitting .232/.332/.409, but his OPS+ is still above 100, so its not like he’s having an Adam Dunn-esque season.  I think he’s struggled with the absence of his lineup protection Ryan Zimmerman and has tried too hard to carry the team and earn his contract.  Happens all the time in the first year of a massive deal, or the first year with a new team and a new stadium and a new city.

Lots of pundits flat out panned the Werth contract.  Too much money, he’s too old, he’s not a superstar.  Well, its not like the Phillies didn’t want him back; he was a coveted free agent and we overpaid because we had to.  I still maintain that if Werth had signed 7rs/$126M with New York or Boston, nobody would have said a thing (indeed, Carl Crawford signed for MORE money and is hitting worse, yet you don’t see many articles slamming Boston for such a horrible contract).  I think a lot of the flak was just the Nats perception as being cheap, and breaking that perception.

(Boswell mentions the same two players I just did, and says that he believes Werth is just “playing tight” right now.  Fair enough).

Q: Did Riggleman leave Gorzelanny in to bat in the 4th inning on 6/19, in an attempt to avoid another Marquis-blowup by taking him out prior to 5 complete innings (so that he wouldn’t qualify for the win)?

A: Maybe.  Maybe not.  Gorzelanny was giving up a LOT of hits, he had given up runs in 3 straight innings and was probably heading for an early shower.  But the Nats got 2 runs back in the bottom of the 4th and Gorzelanny wasn’t near 100 pitches on the day.  Unfortunately he went out and gave up more runs in the 5th and had to get hooked.  Managers aren’t omniscient, and Riggleman had no idea he was going to get pounded for 3 more runs.  Keep in mind as well, this was Gorzelanny’s first game back, he didn’t really have a ton of rehab time (one AAA start) and was more or less rushed back into service because of how bad Maya performed.  (Boswell didn’t really answer the question, just saying that Riggleman has to manage a group of 25 guys, each with different incentives).

Q: How would you re-align baseball, if you were commissioner for a day?  Would you keep divisions?

A: Short answer: Move Houston to AL West to create a fantastic Dallas-Houston rivalry and to create 6 divisions of 5 teams each.  Standardize the DH across the board.  Have rotating divisional focus but stick to it (not like what they do now, where its random what teams play who).  Who cares if there’s inter-league play at the end of the season; make the matchups compelling and people will come to see the games.

Another move could be to add 2 more teams and have an NFL-style playoff structure.  8 divisions of 4 teams each, with 4 division winners and two wildcards in each league.  The two wild cards play the lesser two divisional winners, giving the two best divisional winners a weekend bye and some semblance of an advantage.  Assuming you add two teams to to the AL (in Portland and San Antonio, the two current largest markets without major league baseball teams), you could have divisions like this:

This plan would preserve most of the current rivalries in baseball while creating some new ones.  Tampa moves out of the AL east but goes against two like-minded franchises in terms of building on youth in Texas and Kansas City.  The AL South has a bit more travel, but Tampa’s strong TV ratings should be maintained with 8pm start times instead of 7pm during its many central time zone trips.  San Antonio builds an instant in-division rivalry with their Houston neighbors.  The AL Central keeps its four core teams while the AL west gets an instant Seattle-Portland rivalry while keeping all its games on Pacific time.

The NL East, Central and West all make plenty of sense.  The only fault of this plan is what to do with the collection of teams that end up in the NL “South.”  You could do something a bit more radical to the existing rivalries in this plan:

Here, the Pirates join the NL east to allow Florida and Atlanta to stay close together.  The central teams now cut down on travel a little bit (though Cincinnati is closer to Pittsburgh than most any other NL team, so splitting them up doesn’t make a ton of sense).

Just some random thoughts.  (Boswell, coincidentally, completely punted on the question, saying he had no idea but that any plan done just to make life easier for the AL east doormats Toronto and Baltimore needs to be rethought.)

Q: Do the Nats move Rendon to 1st base if he hits like everyone is talking?

A: It all depends.  If he hits his way into the majors next June, then we may have to get creative where to put him (left field?)  If it takes a few years and we’re looking at FA first basemen then sure, 1st base makes perfect sense.  If its 3 years from now, Desmond is still hitting .205 and Espinosa looks like a franchise player, move Espinosa to short and install Rendon at 2nd.  Lots of options.  Way too early to decide.  Hell, we haven’t even signed the guy yet!    Boswell insinuates that perhaps its Zimmerman who makes way.  Wow, hadn’t considered that possibility.  I have a hard time believing that we’re going to move the best defensive third baseman in the majors on account of a few throwing errors.

Q: Is Bernadina part of the Nats future?

A: I have a hard time believing so.  He’s a fringe-below average major league hitter.  He can play a good center, but we’re grooming Bryce Harper to play center (I would hope).  So Bernadina is left to compete for a left field spot with guys who can adequately man the position but hit 25 homers.  (Boswell completely ignored the Bernadina question).

Q: How does Morse’s prowness defensively at 1st compare to LaRoche and Dunn?

A: He’s clearly in between, though closer to LaRoche than most would say.   So far this year in about 2/3s the innings Morse has a 4.1 UZR/150 rating, which is pretty darn good for a first time full time first baseman.  LaRoche’s was higher (at 9), not surprisingly since he’s one of the best defensive first basement in the league.  Dunn?  He was a -4 uzr/150 in 2010 for the Nats and hasn’t played 1st enough to get a rating so far in 2011.  I always thought Dunn was more agile than people gave him credit for, but that he really struggled on grounders and throws from his middle infielders.  (Boswell more or less agrees).

Q: With Morse playing 1st so well and hitting even better, is he the future first baseman?  What do we do with LaRoche?

A: A very good question.  If LaRoche is healthy, I think he’s your first baseman.  He’s signed for 2012 with a decent 2013 option.  Meanwhile, Morse clearly needs to be in the lineup.  I think the answer may be to flip Nix for a prospect and put Morse back in left when the time comes.  Its nice to have positional flexibility with your hitters.  I think you wait til next spring training and see just how LaRoche is hitting post surgery before making this determination.  (Boswell rambled about how Morse may be hitting what we can expect from Harper).

Q: What are the odds of a Beltway World Series?  Which franchise makes the playoffs first?

A: Slim to none on the first question; I can’t see Baltimore beating out its AL east rivals until they get a new ownership group and embrace the approach the Tampa Bay Rays have taken.  So therefore the immediate answer to the 2nd question is the Nats.  I personally feel that we may reasonably expect a playoff run in 2013.  Philadelphia will be aging and saddled with several major contracts (they have $86M committed to just FOUR guys for 2013 right now, and those four guys will be 36, 33, 34 and 34.  ouch) and could be caught at the top of the division.  Atlanta will still be strong, but the Nats seem to be built to peak starting in 2013.  (Boswell says the Nats have a higher ceiling and then goes on a tangent about the fan base and attendance).

Q: Would the Nats be doing themselves a disservice by trading Marquis, Livan and Gorzelanny and replacing them with lesser AAA pitchers?  Why trade veterans if they’re winning?

A: (before starting, lets discuss.  Livan is an absolute steal at $1M/year and Gorzelanny is under arbitration control for 2 more seasons.  I seriously doubt either is traded).  So lets talk about Marquis.  Yes you should absolutely trade Marquis.  Several reasons:

• He’s in a contract year and is pitching better than he would be once he gets paid.
• He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has value now.
• Did everyone forget how bad he was in 2010?
• Any contract he signs will be difficult to reap the value of as it plays out.
• He’s not an Elias typeA or typeB pitcher, so if we lose him to free agency we’ll get zero compensation.
• We’re not winning the world series this year, therefore….
• All losing teams trade off veterans at the trade deadline for prospects.  And we should too.

(Boswell thinks the 7/31 trade market is softening and that the Nats won’t take any offers, and everyone stays.  I doubt that, based on what we were getting last year for the likes of Cristian Guzman).

Q: Are the Nats (especially Desmond and Werth) taking too many first pitch fastballs?

A: Hard to answer this without empirical evidence.  Boswell thinks the team should have altered its approach against a weak starting pitcher and not let him get into so many pitcher’s counts.  Fair enough.

Q: What’s the longest someone has employed this pitcher-batting-8th lineup?

A: It has to be the Cardinals, who ran it for nearly an entire season.  Who else uses it?  (Boswell went off on Werth’s splits since going to leadoff).

I forgot to publish my previous edition of this.  So its located below.  Meanwhile here’s the 6/20/11 edition.  I don’t think Bill’s done one of these since.  A lot of the statistics quoted were at the time of writing (6/20/11) and may be a bit dated by now.

Q: How do you think Jayson Werth has done this year, considering he hasn’t had Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche or a productive leadoff hitter in the lineup for most of the season so far?

A: He’s barely above 100 OPS+, after a number of seasons in the league top 10.  His slash line: .232/.332/.409.  I think he should be doing better no doubt and is finding out how tough it is to lead a team without much in the way of lineup protection.  (Ladson thinks he’s doing fine, when you take into account his leadership in the clubhouse).

Q: Should the Nationals trade a valuable reliever like Tyler Clippard to get a hitter that could improve the team’s offense?

A: The Nationals should make any trade, involving any player, if the return is deemed worth it.  Perhaps not Zimmerman, Strasburg or Harper, but anyone else is fair game.  That being said, I don’t think Clippard should be traded unless he fetches quite a haul, because of his importance to our bullpen.  So perhaps its a self fulfilling prophesy; we won’t trade him unless he gets valued like a front-end starter, but he’s merely an 8th inning reliever.  (Ladson more or less agrees with what i’ve written).

Q: Should Espinosa start hitting strictly right-handed?

A: Here’s his 2011 splits, and they’re pretty distinct.  He’s hitting .206 as a lefty, .315 as a righty.  But, look at his BABIP split.  .217 as a lefty and .352 as a righty.  So he’s been amazingly unlucky as a left-handed batter so far.  Despite what his splits look like, you don’t purposely get rid of a lefty-capable hitter.  He’s a rookie after all (lest we forget), and can improve his switch hitting abilities.  (Ladson agrees; let him continue to switch hit).

Q: Do you see the Nationals making many major moves at the Trade Deadline?

A: Realistically, I can see the team moving a couple of pieces (perhaps Marquis and Coffey).  I could also see them make a couple of waiver-wire trades very late in the season (Cora and Hairston).  I don’t see them acquiring any MLB players or moving any prospects.   If players like Ankiel or Gaudin were playing better, they’d be trade targets too.    (Ladson for some reason thinks the team will try to acquire a lead-off hitter and a starting pitcher, mentioning Gorzelanny as the one to be replaced.  Can’t see either move at this point in the season.  Getting a lead-off hitter will be an off-season task).

Q: Why would the Nats trade Jason Marquis? He solidifies the third spot in the rotation for 2012.

A: For all of these reasons:

• He’s in a contract year and is pitching better than he would be once he gets paid.
• He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has value now.
• Did everyone forget how bad he was in 2010?
• Any contract he signs will be difficult to reap the value of as it plays out.
• He’s not an Elias typeA or typeB pitcher, so if we lose him to free agency we’ll get zero compensation.
• We’re not winning the world series this year, therefore….
• All losing teams trade off veterans at the trade deadline for prospects.  And we should too.

2012’s rotation could very easily be the same as 2011’s, except you replace Marquis with Strasburg.

(Ladson thinks Marquis stays if we’re in the playoff race, and is dealt if we’re not.  Makes sense to me).

Q: Michael Morse has played well at first base. Is there any chance the Nationals will trade or release Adam LaRoche to make sure Morse stays at the position?

A: Release?  no way.  He’s owed a good chunk of change for 2012 ($8M plus another $1M buyout of his 2013 option).  Yes Morse has been good at 1st, but I think you move him back to left and look for Laroche back at 1st in 2012.  LaRoche is better in the field and was a pretty consistent 25hr, 100rbi guy before his injury.  Because of his injury, there’s practically no trade market for him now.  So we’re stuck with him for 2012.  (Ladson agrees with my sentiments on LaRoche).

Q: Do you think we might persuade Ivan Rodriguez to join the Giants to get some pitching in return?

A: It would make sense, but the Giants seem to be making do without Posey (they are in 1st place after all).  And they’ve made public statements saying they weren’t going to make a panic trade.  Pudge isn’t going to fetch all that much, perhaps a prospect in the low minors outside the top 20 BA rankings.  For that, its worth keeping him for 2011 and seeing if maybe even he sticks around in a backup role.  (Ladson agrees)

Q: Regarding Matt Stairs — aren’t Pudge, Laynce Nix and Marquis better designated-hitter options during Interleague Play?

A: Yes they are (well, except Marquis.  Come on; he’s a good hitting pitcher, not a good hitter).  And I continue to be amazed that Stairs is on this roster.  He is now 5/42 for the season with one extra base hit and is routinely getting fooled by mediocre middle-bullpen guys.  I believe he needs to be released/turned into a bench coach/something and have a more versatile guy brought up.  Looking at Syracuse hitters, Antonelli gives some middle infield flexiblity, Marrero is already on the 40-man and can be brought up without a corresponding move, and Aubrey has MLB experience and can play 1B.  Stairs is obviously a good guy but at the expense of a 25-man roster spot?  (Ladson says, yes those guys are probably better options).

This is a bit of an older Inbox edition (I was out of town when it dropped, and just saved the link), but I love answering questions that people don’t ask me about the Nats.  :-).  Reading from above, you’ll see some duplicated, repeated questions (especially about Pudge and Stairs).

Here’s Ladson’s 6/5/11 inbox and my answers to his questions.

Q: If the Nats were to trade Ivan Rodriguez, who do you think would be the new backup?
A: Ramos would start and I believe the team would call up Carlos Maldonado from Syracuse to be the once-a-week backup.  Maldonado has MLB experience and would know his role.  I would NOT call up Jesus Flores, who I would rather continue playing full time in AAA building up value.  (Ladson thinks it would be Flores, which I think would be a disservice to his career to have him come up and ride the bench in the Majors)

Q: What do you think the Nats will do if Matt Stairs continues his subpar hitting? Could they release him or just package him in a trade to get rid of him?
A: I *think* the Nats will just continue to let him eat a 25-man spot.  The argument is that there’s not really anyone in AAA who is earning a trip to the majors and Riggleman likes having Stairs around as a pseudo-bench coach.

I *wish* they’d just cut him and bring up someone like Chris Marrero, even if he’s not deserving, to get some more roster flexibility and to have someone who can actually play the field competently.  What Trade value does Stairs have right now?  Who wants to trade for a guy who is hitting (as of 6/13/11) 5 for 40 on the season?  His OPS+ is 16.  16?!

(Ladson asks who we’d replace him with, citing this as the reason he’s sticking around.  But he notes that Stairs could be in trouble once inter-league play is finished).

Q: Every time you answer a question about the Nats’ leadoff spot, you never mention the names of Stephen Lombardozzi or Eury Perez. Are these guys not as good as their numbers suggest, or are they that far away?
A: I think the answer needs some context.  Are we talking about leadoff for 2011 or lead-off for the future?

Lead-off in 2011 is a lost cause.  The team gambled that Nyjer Morgan would return to his 2009 numbers and chose to forget all the incidents that turned him into a character liability last season.  Suddenly we were faced with having no natural leadoff hitter in the last week of March.  Now we’re cobbling together the likes of Bernadina, Desmond, or Espinosa at the top of the lineup, none of which are good enough or suited enough for leadoff.

Longer term. Lombardozzi is an interesting possibility.  His career slash line in the minors is .297/.372/.412, and that’s been incredibly consistent throughout every level (he has almost identical numbers at every level).    He plays 2b, where suddenly we’re rather overloaded with the very good Danny Espinosa, the probable destination of 1st round draft pick Anthony Rendon, and 2009 2nd round draft pick Jeff Kobernus (though he’s struggling in Potomac as a 3rd year pro and may be a draft bust).  Perhaps the best case is moving Espinosa to SS, Lombardozzi to 2B, Rendon to 1st or left and either trading or making Desmond super-utility guy.

As for Eury Perez, he’s one of the few DSL grads hanging around in our minor league system right now.  He’s in Potomac right now but has seen a precipitous drop in his OBP at the high-A level.   As of 6/13 he has only THREE walks for the entire season (?).  Inarguably though he has speed (64 Sbs last year) and would be the perfect lead-off/center field type.  But…. isn’t Bryce Harper being groomed to play center?  Werth presumably occupies right field for the next 7 years, and Harper is athletic enough to play center (and would be a ton more valuable there).  If Perez is a plus-defender he’d be wasted in left.

My ideal 2013 lineup if everything goes well: Lombardozzi (2b), Espinosa (SS), Zimmerman (3b), Harper (cf), Werth (rf), Rendon (1b), Ramos (c), Desmond? (lf).  That’s some potential fire-power.

(Ladson succinctly agress with what i’ve said; prospects are far away, we have nobody right now, and Rizzo may make a move).

Q: When do you think we will see Ross Detwiler this season?
A: Excellent question.  Can the answer be “never?”  Detwiler has taken two massive steps backwards this year.  Instead of finally being healthy and ready to produce at the MLB level, he’s been the worst of 5 starters in Syracuse all season.  Yes, his last two starts have been quality starts, but before that he had a string of seven straight starts where he gave up 4 or more earned runs.  This for a first round draft pick who was supposed to be featuring in the majors.

I suspected he is or was hurt.  Because he was lights out in his first start of the AAA season.  Now I just don’t know whats going to happen.  Maya was the first call up to replace an injured starter, and will most likely return.  Perhaps Detwiler gets another shot if we trade Marquis or if we have another injury, but honestly Tom Milone has earned the call up far more than Detwiler. (Ladson agrees, but predicts a 9/1 callup if Detwiler improves.  duh).

Q: Nyjer Morgan was a fantastic leadoff hitter. Any chance they make a deal with Milwaukee and bring him back to D.C. where he belongs?
A: Another humorous question; this one made me laugh out loud it was so absurd.  Rizzo wanted to get rid of him so badly he took back a low-A minor leaguer with no future as trade collateral.  Morgan was a fantastic lead off hitter for the last half of 2009.  When he finally got a shot to be a full time player in 2010, he struggled badly.  His numbers are great in 2011 … but he’s a part time player.  We’re moving on.  (Ladson agrees, saying Morgan is better than what we have, but that he’s not that good a leadoff hitter).

Q: What do you think of Jim Riggleman as a manager?
A: Interesting question. I think Riggleman has done a decent job stabilizing the bullpen and getting guys to understand their roles. I think he is a bit old-fashioned in the way he manages from time to time, pulling starters a bit early to play the matchup game but also leaving guys in a batter too long. I think the fact that this team is near .500 given that they’ve gotten a grand total of 8 games out of their best hitter, their major FA acquisition is batting .236 and their first-baseman/clean up hitter is out for the season is relatively amazing.  He may be perfect for the up and coming rookie crop we expect, based on his experience and no-nonesense approach.  He doesn’t have a very good managerial track record though, so one mediocre season when the front office expects greatness and he’ll be out.  (Ladson thinks he’s an excellent manager and thinks he deserves to have his option picked up).

From Boswell’s live chat on Monday 6/13/11.  I’ll skip the non Nats questions.  As always, the questions below are mostly paraphrased from the submissions he chose.

Q: Should the Nats consider keeping Jason Marquis?
A: No way.  He’s in a contract year and is performing fantastically.  Guess what his previous best pitching year was?  That’d be his LAST contract year, in 2009.  He’s on the wrong side of 30, you’d be paying for 2011 without giving any context to what happened in 2010, you’d be blocking one of the gazillion young arms we have coming up, and you’d have to pay him much more than his current $7.5M/per contract.

You trade him at the deadline for prospects and bring up Detwiler, Meyers, or even Peacock to see what you have.  That’s what last place teams do with their soon-to-be-expiring veteran contracts.  (Boswell agrees, citing the Riggleman blowup as evidence that he’s out the door soon)

Q: Are the Nats a centerfielder and a competent starter away from being competitive?
A: Not quite.  I think we’re a center-fielder, a marquee first baseman, the return of Zimmerman, and TWO good starters on top of a healthy Strasburg and the continued development of Zimmermann away from being really competitive.  (Boswell says that we’d be “crazy not to be optimistic about the Nats” without any real analysis on this question).

Q: Is Jayson Werth the long term answer as the teams leadoff/center fielder?
A: I’m not sure if this question is a joke or not.  No, of course Werth isn’t a lead-off hitter, or a center fielder for that matter.  Riggleman was just mixing up the lineups and put Werth first.  He has far too much power to waste in a leadoff role.  He’s a RBI man, not a table-setter.  Long term this team puts Bryce Harper between Zimmerman and Werth’s right handed bats in the middle of the order and let the power game come to them.  Meanwhile if someone Desmond doesn’t pan out as a leadoff/middle infielder type you find one who can.  Harper should be groomed to play center so enable someone else to lead off.  (Boswell agrees: Werth can fill in at center, but he’s not the long term answer.  And, he’s certainly not a leadoff hitter).

Q: Would a rotation of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, Marquis and Gorzelanny be a playoff rotation?

A: Wishful thinking, I suspect.  The last few world series winners have shown you need multiple Aces and otherwise good starting pitching to have a shot.  Strasburg is a legitimate “Ace,” easily one of the best 20 pitchers in the game when he is healthy.  But … he’s only been healthy for a few weeks thus far.  We’re a long ways towards counting on him being Roy Halladay-dominant every 5 days.  Zimmermann is looking good … but he’s still up and down.  Lannan, Marquis and Gorzelanny are all 5th starters on most other squads (as is Livan for that matter).  To be successful you need two #1s, a #2 and no worse than a #3 type guy to go with your proverbial 5th starter.

Look at (say) Atlanta’s rotation right now: Lowe, Jurrjens, Hansen, Hudson, Beachy.   Jurrgens is pitching at an all-star level, Hansen is pitching even better.  The worst guy this year is Hudson, who is a work-horse and would be the National’s ace.  Plus they have two major prospects waiting in the wings in Minor and Tehran.  5 of these 7 named pitchers are 25 years of age or younger; the Braves are set for a long time.  This is what the Nationals need to emulate.

Boswell didn’t really answer the question, just talked about the pipeline of players.  I like the pipeline too, trust me, but prospects aren’t quite the same as demonstrated production on the MLB field.  That’s what we need.

Q: Should our broadcasters reference our Montreal past more frequently?

A: Eh.  I hear this complaint a bunch from other bloggers, about the fact that the current regime pays little attention to its Montreal roots.  Personally I don’t think its that big a deal.  There were two iterations of Washington teams prior to the Nats and that’s the natural historical teams to reference.  I’m sure the Texas Rangers don’t really note that they were the Washington Senators and that their previous slime-ball owners basically stole the team away from Washington in the middle of the night.  (Boswell told a story about writing about bike races).

Q: Does Jayson Werth seem like he’s stressed?

A: Probably so.  First year in a massive contract with all the ink spilled about it over the off-season, then your primary lineup protection goes down 8 games into the season.  I’d be stressed too.  The dude is intense, and playing with intensity on a losing team has to be a massive drag.  (Boswell’s answer is borderline mean when discussing Werth’s production this season.  He’s way way down on projections for rbis, extra base hits, etc).

Q: Did the selection of Anthony Rendon (and the lack of announcing his position) mean to send a message to Ryan Zimmerman about his future contract talks?

A: No, and that’s a ridiculous assertion.  There is zero chance the Nats were thinking anything except “oh my gosh I can’t believe Rendon fell to us” when they took him.  To think that the team was somehow projecting 4 years into the future in the 5 minutes they had to do draft pick analysis is crazy.

Rendon’s current position is irrelevant.  If he hits in the low minors, he’ll be promoted to the high minors.  If he continues to hit in the high minors, the team will find a place for him.  A good 3rd baseman can easily transition to 2nd, 1st, or left field.  Hell, maybe they’ll make him a catcher.

(Ironically, Boswell used almost the same language I just used.  You’ll note that I don’t actually read his answers until AFTER I type up how i’d respond).

Q: Is the Marquis situation shaping up as Adam Dunn v2.0?

A: Not at all.  Adam Dunn was a type-A free agent.  Marquis is not even close to being a type-B.  We could afford to hang onto Dunn and wait out trade offers b/c we knew he’d be worth two high draft picks.  And sure enough, his two picks turned into Alex Meyers and Brian Goodwin. Marquis’ value is never going to be as high as it will be after his current stint of decent starting pitching and we should have flipped him yesterday to a team like the Yankees.  (I’m not sure Boswell answered the question… he just mentioned that the Nats have money to spend.  Whether they spend it wisely or not remains to be seen).

Q: Can the Nats beat the large-spending teams by just growing up with players such as Espinosa, Desmond, and the like?

A: Yes (see Tampa Bay Rays) but its a lot easier to grow most of your team and augment with good FAs.  I think that’s the model this team is following right now (see the attempts to sign Zack Greinke in the off season).  The problem with the grow-the-team approach is that it takes a long time.  And this team already completely blew its first 4 seasons in Washington with incompetence in the front office and in the ownership team.  Now they’re playing catch up.  See me in 2013; if we’re not in the playoff hunt in 2013, we’ll re-boot and get a new GM and basically start over again.

Q: Which of our top 4 picks will sign?

A: Great question.  I’m predicting that Rendon, Meyer and Goodwin all sign.  Goodwin will be a tricky one but he can’t possibly want to return to school after his academic issues.  The tough sign is Purke.  If Purke plays in the Cape and doesn’t show any velocity, the Nats can’t possibly offer him 1st round money, and he’ll really have no choice but to go back to school.  That’s the right thing to do professionally.  The best bet for the Nats is for Purke to show he still has mid 90s heat and we sign him to 1st round money and get possibly the steak of last 5 drafts.  (Boswell agrees).

Q: Is Jordan Zimmermann turning into our staff 1-A to Strasburg’s #1?

A: Its a little premature to annoint him to be that good of a pitcher.  He does have 8 straight quality starts and three straight fantastic starts though.   To be 1-A you have to show this kind of production all season, season-after-season.  Not for a 6 week period.  (Boswell says, “sure looks like it” and quotes stats from these last 8 starts.)

Q: Since the Nats have played so many road games thus far, can we expect a better record here on in?

A: Marginally.  Home field is worth something like 53% historically.  Perhaps some cause for optimism lays in the fact that our rotation has performed better than expected and is only getting better, and that our lineup as it stands now is far stronger than what we fielded from day one.  Ramos over Pudge (100 to 63 ops+), Morse over Laroche (136 to 53 ops+), Nix over Bernadina (139 to 75 ops+) are good starts, but getting Zimmerman back (184 vs 76 ops+ for Hairston) will be a huge help as well.   So with a better hitting team, continued good starting pitching and improving defense … maybe this team can claw its way back to .500.  (Boswell didn’t really answer the question, just talked about the bad timing of the US open and the Baltimore-Washington series being on the same weekend).

Q: Is Bryce Harper to Larry Walker a good comparison?

A: I would say, I would expect more out of Harper frankly.  Walker was a very good hitter (3 batting titles, an MVP) but questions persist about how much of his offense was due to Coors field and the launching pad he played in.  I look more for a Ken Griffey Jr. arc of performance out of Harper.  (Boswell says that David Justice is a good goal.  I think he’s shooting low).

Q: Is John Lannan part of the future of this team?

A: Great question.  Unfortunately, I think the eventual answer is going to be No.  Lannan is a good #4 or #5 starter in a good rotation.  He’s a change of pace starter on a team of hard throwers and could slot in nicely and give a playoff team 30 starts a year.  In 3 years, if we have Strasburg, Zimmermann, Solis, Cole, Ray, Meyer, Meyers and Peacock all making statements to be in the MLB rotation, there’s just no room for guys like Lannan, Gorzelanny, Maya, or Detwiler.  Its a cruel fact, but the team will be better for it.  (Boswell kind of agrees with me on the 4-5th starter bit, quotes a lot of advanced stats on Lannan, then says we should sign  him to an extension.  I disagree; I think we trade him when our kids start coming up).

Q: Are Nationals fans over-reacting when calling for the Manager’s or GM’s head right now?

A: clearly, yes.  Riggleman has gone above and beyond with the injuries and talent of this team.  Rizzo’s goal is to rebuild on a budget.  Both guys are doing as best as they can right now.  (Boswell didn’t really answer the question..)

Q: Should the Nats trade Clippard (whose name has been in the trade rumors lately?)

A: Hell no.  He’s a vital part of the bullpen, the best guy out there, and is under arbitration control for FOUR more years.  You don’t think about trading him; you sign him to an extension to lock him up.  Well, maybe not an extension, but you certainly keep him around.  (Boswell agrees).

Phew.  Almost 2000 words.  And I only wrote a third of what Boswell wrote.

Stairs' performance lately led to Boswell answering the same question about him, twice. Photo: Carlson/AP via nydailynews.com

Boswell’s 5/31 chat; my answers to his questions.  I skipped the non-Nats questions, figuring that anyone could argue about Pujols, the Mets and what not.  I’ve paraphrased/shortened most of the rambling “questions” into single sentences, and have split “questions” that asked for multiple answers.

Q: (paraphrased): Should the Nats Release Stairs?  (This question was asked twice, at the beginning and later on).
A: Yes, they really should.  I continue to fail to see the utility of having Matt Stairs around.  I’ve talked at length about this point at various times in the past on this blog.  (Boswell agrees … says that he “looks awful,” but later on asks why we’re fixated on Stairs and that there’s bigger problems.  True, but right now i’d rather see Marrero batting .100 instead of Stairs.).

Q:(paraphrased): Should the Nats send Desmond to AAA to work on his hitting?
A: No, if only because there’s not really anyone decent to replace him.  What is the value of sitting or demoting Ian Desmond so that we can give a ton of at bats to Alex Cora or Brian Bixler?  Zero.  Unless we had a promising SS prospect in the minors worth seeing, there’d be no reason to sit Desmond right now.  (Boswell agrees, saying that Desmond has had “a million bush league at-bats”).

The only possible scenario that may eventually make sense; move Espinosa to short, demote/sit Desmond and bring up someone like Lombardozzi, Kobernus or Hague to play 2nd.  Except, Lombardozzi is not nearly ready for this move and isn’t on the 40-man, Kobernus is really struggling and looks like a draft bust, and Hague is halfway into his first pro season.  To say nothing of the fact that any move to bring Espinosa to a new position would be done in the spring, not in June.  (Ironically, Boswell mentioned this scenario .. but in his answer to the NEXT question).

Q: (paraphrased): Should Rizzo focus on hitting in the 2011 draft?
A: Yes … but the major league draft is always about getting the “best player available.”  Unlike a sport like basketball (where the existence of a small forward on a roster prevents a team like Portland from drafting Michael Jordan since you draft for need in the NBA), you cannot project what can happen to a major league roster over the course of the 4-5 years it takes to develop players.  Just because we have Ryan Zimmerman now, does not mean we should ignore drafting and developing 3rd basemen for the next 5 years.  If for no other reason than a good defensive 3rd baseman easily makes a switch to another position (2nd or 1st or even left field) if his bat turns out to be too valuable to keep out of the majors.

Now, that being said, the 2011 draft is college pitcher heavy.  So the first pick is almost guaranteed to be a college arm.  You take what comes to you, in many ways.  At #23, if a great college arm has dropped, you take him there as well.  (Future blog note; stay tuned for a review of the Nats choices and likely picks at #6).

Personally, I think the modern baseball team construction is about developing pitching first, and then buying hitting on the open market if you need to.  So, even given that we’re relatively thin on hitters at the lower levels, I don’t have a problem getting more and better arms if that’s what pops up on the radar.

(Boswell agrees, says, “go pitching,” noting that the Nats limiting factor is developing 1-2-3 starters).

Q: (paraphrased): What value does BABIP give?
A: For context, Boswell’s latest column was about Espinosa and the fact that he has a ridiculously low BABIP right now.

As Boswell notes, BABIP gives a context of just how lucky or unlucky a hitter (or pitcher for that matter) has been.  A pitcher with a low BABIP (like Tom Gorzelanny for us right now at .239) is eventually going to return to the mean.  A pitcher with a high BABIP is most likely unlucky and probably will experience a natural lowering of his ERA over time.

One factor to remember; a high-bunter will maintain an above average BABIP (like our favorite ex-leadoff hitter Nyger Morgan).  And, a skilled directional hitter (such as Rod Carew as mentioned by Boswell, but also someone like Wade Boggs) can maintain a higher-than league average BABIP just based on skill.  Ty Cobb, generally considered one of the best bunters of all time in addition to being one of the most prolific and skill ful hitters, maintained a .378 career BABIP.  That’s pretty amazing.

(Boswell more or less agreed with what I wrote).

Q: (paraphrased) Do we think that Riggleman’s style of managing has cost the team lately?
A: The team is awful in one-run games right now, and Boswell included a slight “dig” at Riggleman, quoting Earl Weaver‘s “play for one run early, lose by one run late” idiom and calling Riggleman a “small ball” manager.  Coincidentally, this column rankled Riggleman, who responded the next day with a blunt rebuttal.

To a certain degree I agree with the anti-small ball, anti-giving up outs sentiment; i’m not sure I like bunting guys over in the first or 2nd innings, assuming you’re not going to get to a starter.  Look at the 5/31 game; the Nats and their 2nd worst offense in the league hit THREE homers off of Halladay.  Who would have thought that?

That being said, I find it really tough to blame Riggleman for this team’s performance, at all.  Zimmerman out, LaRoche batting .187, Ankiel not much better.  These were the guts of this team’s proposed lineup and they’ve been missing or horrible all season.  The pitching staff management has been good for the most part.  We’re 2 games below our pythagorean W/L record but that’s probably mostly due to the outlier 17-5 game in Baltimore.

Riggleman isn’t the reason this team is 22-31; injuries are.  Blame the injuries, not the manager.  Well, injuries and an artificially low payroll for this market (but that’s another topic).

(Boswell doesn’t like Riggleman’s small-ball mentality and thinks he overmanages, as far as I can tell).

Q: Based on Zimmerman’s injury and LaRoche’s lack of productivity, does this team still have a shot to reach 75 wins?
A: They’re 22-31 now, on pace for 67 wins and a worse record than last year.  To finish with 75 wins they have to go 53-56 the rest of the way out.

Sorry, they’re not going to be a .500 team from here on out.  The bullpen is showing signs of wear, the starters are slowly declining to the point where all 5 are below a 100 era+, and there’s really nobody to bring up from AAA to stem the flow (as we saw on sunday with Maya’s mauling).

Getting back to last year’s 69 wins is a new team goal, frankly.

(Boswell somehow thinks the team still has a shot to reach 75 wins …. ).

Q: (paraphased) Are the Nats losing due to lack of talent, lack of fundamentals, or lack of accountability?
A: I’d say its lack of offensive talent.  Fundamentally you do see things here or there (bad decisions by fielders or baserunning errors) but the errors are way down lately.  Accountability?  Yes there was the Werth blowup recently, and perhaps he was pissed at some rookie behaviors.  We’ll never know; he clammed up and stopped talking to the press about it.

(Boswell lays the blame on Rizzo, interestingly.  Not sure I agree; how is a lack of production on the field the fault of Kasten’s departure from the club?  I do agree with Boswell in saying that this non-story will pass once the team has a winning streak).

Q: (paraphrased) Do the owners care that Nats-Phillies games in Washington become essentially Philly home games?
A: Personally, I don’t think the Lerners care.  They see a big gate, lots of revenue, lots of beers sold and lots of hot dogs consumed.  If they could schedule 81 home games against the phillies and make an extra $50M in gate, they’d be completely happy.

And that is kinda sad.  Its clear they’re running the franchise as a business and have profit targets in mind.  That sucks for fans b/c it means we’ll never really get a free-spending, open the checkbooks and go for it kind of owner.  Personally I hope some sort of payroll modifications are put into the next CBA, if only to prevent potential abuses of revenue sharing from profit-minded owners (see Lerner, Jeffrey or Nutting, Robert).

(Boswell didn’t directly address any opinion of the Lerners … just alluded to how he thinks he was a bad ass when he was in his teens).

Q: (paraphrased): How does the Nats farm system rank right now for positional players?
A: Most pundits don’t rank positional versus pitchers when looking at farm systems, but generally speaking the major analysts have the Nats farm system in the middle of the pack (12th-13th) right now.  It is slightly top heavy b/c of Harper.

A quick look at the system seems to show some good starters (Cole, Ray, Solis) and good hitters (Kelso, Harper) in low-A, scattered bright spots in high-A (Hague, Hood), a couple of bright spots in AA (Peacock, Lombardozzi, Norris) and a couple of very interesting arms in AAA (Meyer, Milone).  But that’s not enough depth, at all.

(Boswell thinks the system is weak).

Q: What is the future plans of these players: Moore, Norris, Lombardozzi, Detwiler and Balester?
A: Moore was old for Potomac last year but is doing well enough in AA.  Even if he doesn’t hit 30 homers he’s still an interesting prospect for now.  Norris is absolutely a future MLB catcher; he’s struggled post wrist surgery.  Lombardozzi could be at the least a good MLB utility infielder and i’m hoping he moves up and replaces the likes of Cora/Bixler/Hairston on the mlb roster.  Detwiler i’m concerned about; he’s not pitching well at all right now in AAA and I think he’s hurt.  Balester did well in a relief mode late last season and should be on the MLB roster if not for option statuses of several guys in that pen.  Longer term he has a live arm and should stick as a righty option for the extended future.

(Boswell doesn’t think as much of Balester as I do, but likes Norris and Lombardozzi).

Q: Are the veterans jumping ship on Riggleman (based on Werth comments and Marquis blow-up)?
A: I don’t think so … its way too early.  Its 50 games into a 7 year career for Werth.  He’s competitive, serious  and doesn’t like to lose.  The team has lost a bunch of games lately.  I think that’s all the Werth comments were about.

Marquis’ irritation in having an easy win taken away from him was understandable; he’s in a contract year, he’s taken plenty of losses in games where he’s pitched well enough to earn the win, and he felt like he should have been given that “free” win as a result.  I would have been pissed as well.

This whole team is veterans who should know their roles.  Cora, Hairston, Ankiel, Nix … every acquisition in the offseason was a vet.

(Boswell inexplicably reminds us that Riggleman and Boras are best buddies … in the context of what?  Because Werth is represented by Boras, somehow Werth will cut Riggleman a break?)

Q; (paraphrased) Was Alex Cora’s base-running really a gaffe?
A: Yes, absolutely.  He said he was running on contact, which is a mistake.  He HAS to make sure that ball clears the pitcher and watch the pitcher begin to make a 1-6-3 double play attempt.  (Boswell thinks Cora was right, which I disagree with, but also says it was a bad break, which is true).

Q: Is the Nats record in one-run games all Riggleman’s fault?
A: I’m sure he has something to do with it, but i don’t think you can put it all at his feet.  Boswell points out that Riggleman’s record versus the pythagorean is a massive outlier in comparison to top managers in the game  historically, and lists his “sentimental” managing as a result.  Hard to argue against that.  But its also much harder to win one-run games when you have an offense that barely scores 3.5 runs a game while your pitching staff usually gives up 4.

Q: (paraphrased): Is Davey Johnson waiting in the wings for Riggleman’s job?
A: Maybe.  who knows.  Put a better product on the field before killing the manager.  (Boswell says the team needs to spend more money in its manager budget).

That was fun!  He took a gazillion questions.

Do you really think Albert Pujols will leave St. Louis? Photo unknown source via fantasyknuckleheads.com

Here’s the latest in a recurring theme.  Bill Ladson posted his own answers to the following reader questions.

Q: What’s the long-term plan for the leadoff spot?
A: I think the team had hoped that Corey Brown (obtained in the Josh Willingham deal) would be further along in his AAA development than he has shown thus far.  As of today he’s hitting .202/.322/.323 and only has two stolen bases on the season.  That’s really not going to cut it.

I thought center field/lead-off hitter was a major area of concern going into the off-season, and thought (rightly) that Nyger Morgan‘s tenure was close to being done with the team after his erratic behavior and precipitous offensive decline last season.  But, center field is a really tough position to find and fill (see this older post that looked at the makeup of each of the 30 CF starters at the time … there’s not a ton of major names on that list), and the team entered spring training with Morgan penciled in as the starter.

Short Term (as in the next two years): I think we’ll continue to use Roger Bernadina in the role, unless Brown somehow remember how to hit.  2012 we’ll see more of the same.  Unless we can work a trade for someone that makes sense (see the BJ Upton question below).

Long Term (2013 and beyond): we’ll hope that one of our middle infield hitters owns the role.  I’d love to see Danny Espinosa or Ian Desmond blossom in that spot, but they both are struggling this year and both strike out, a lot.

(Ladson honestly didn’t have an answer … citing the lack of anyone in the minors to provide help.  Yeah, that’s true too).

Q: (paraphrased) Is the team going to trade Pudge Rodriguez?

A: I don’t believe they will.  I think its bad to assume that you can just magically trade a veteran.  Remember, Pudge is hitting .202 on the season right now with very little pop.  He looks every one of his 39 years.  Yes he’s still a great defensive catcher and he still has a great arm, but who would want him?  We keep hearing rumors (Boston, now San Francisco with Buster Posey‘s injury), but I think any trade we’d make would have to include nearly all his remaining salary, and we’d be looking at a low-level prospect in return.  For that kind of payment, why not just keep him through the rest of his contract so that Flores can stay in AAA and play every day.  (Ladson thinks that Pudge will be dealt, but he thinks the team is trading most every veteran no matter how poorly they’re hitting).

Q: (paraphrased) Is Wilson Ramos the everyday catcher?

A: Not yet, but he should be.  So far this year he’s gotten 127 plate appearances to Pudge’s 79, giving him about 60% of the at bats.  In a normal catcher platoon you’d have the backup going once-a-week or so (by way of comparison, Atlanta’s Brian McCann has 82% of his team’s catcher at-bats right now, and Matt Weiters has about 77%).  Part of that is out of respect to Pudge as the future hall of famer, and part of that is natural breaking in of a rookie.  But on a team that didn’t have Pudge as the backup, Ramos would be in the 80% range of playing for sure.  (Ladson says he’ll be the full time catcher in the 2nd half for sure).
Q: (paraphrased) Is the team really interested in BJ Upton?

A: I would be, if I was Rizzo.  He’s the exact prototypical leadoff/center fielder that this team desperately needs right now.  He’s not the best hitter (career 103 ops+) but he gets on base a lot (.345 career obp) and steals a ton of bases and has a career 4.9 uzr/150 in center field.  He’ll be a FA after next season, so odds are the Rays aren’t going to trade him unless they get good prospects in return.  Perhaps we look at him as a FA signing for the 2013 season, with the idea of putting Harper in Left field.  (Ladson says we did scout him earlier, but it was just normal scouting.  He doesn’t think Upton is any better than what we currently have offensively, which I rather disagree with).

Q: How is Chien-Ming Wang’s rehab going? Can we expect him in the Majors soon?

A: Short answer: poorly and never.  We have heard very little about Wang other than reports at the end of spring training that he was still months away from pitching.  Personally, I took that as a very bad omen.  It seems to be the same place he was in at this time last year.  He’s made no rehabilitation progress in nearly two years despite several million dollars of salary expended.  Not only do I not think he’s going to be in the majors soon, I’ll be shocked if he even goes out on a rehab assignment.  Reason?  Rehab assignments have time limits, Wang has no options remaining, meaning he’d have to be cut loose if he wasn’t ready to join the majors.  Frankly, I think he’s done.  (Ladson states the obvious; Wang will not pitch in a major or minor league game in the first half of the season).

Q: Have you heard any updates as to whether first baseman Chris Marrero’s defense is improving?

A: Marrero has definitely cut down on his errors in AAA, and is hitting decently enough.  I was of the opinion that he should have been called up to replace LaRoche on the MLB roster, but the timing worked out to re-call Rick Ankiel from his rehab assignment (where he was busy striking out repeatedly in AA-games).  The team line was that Marrero needs to play a whole season in AAA for some reason.  I say, with LaRoche’s injury and Zimmerman’s extended absense, this season is nearly lost already and to give the kid some playing time.  (Ladson says his defense is vastly improved).

Q: Who do the Nats envision playing first base in the future — Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, some lesser free agent, Marrero, a future draftee? What’s the long-term strategy there?

A: Pujols will never leave St. Louis.  Fielder probably signs with the Chicago Cubs, one of the only major-payroll teams that don’t have a first baseman locked up for $100M long term (Yankees = Teixeira, Red Sox = Gonzalez, Phillies = Howard, and the Mets & Dodgers are not going to be buying anyone until ownership situations are resolved).  Fielder to the Cubs makes perfect sense and they’ll pay him enough to make it worth his while.  Rizzo would never buy Fielder.  He’s not “defensive minded” and doesn’t fit the mold of what Rizzo wants to put on the field.  LaRoche was exactly what he wanted (well, except for the shredded shoulder that is).

Long Term strategy: i’ll bet they continue to sign one or two year contracts with decent hitters who happen to be good fielders (LaRoche, Derrick Lee, even Carlos Pena to a certain extent) until the team produces someone that fits the bill.

(Ladson thinks the team will trade for a 1B or sign another FA in the off season.  I seriously doubt that.  LaRoche is signed through 2012 and will be back.  It isn’t a career ending injury, just season-ending.  He’ll play in 2012).

Tom Boswell from the Washington Post (Photo via pbs.org)

I like Tom Boswell‘s WP chats.  They’re usually scheduled 11am mondays (they used to be on Wednesdays) and unlike many Washington area sportswriters takes a large amount of baseball related questions.  He usually writes long-winded interesting responses that usually include nuggets of information that you’ve never really heard elsewhere.  His latest chat featured a ton of interesting questions that I thought I’d take a stab at (my answers first, then an interpretation of Boswell’s.  In most cases i’ve paraphrased the question for levity).

Q: Is Riggleman’s job in danger?

A: In danger??  If anything, Riggleman should be asking for a pay raise.  His best player has played in 7 games, his two major FA acquisitions are hitting .172 and .247, and his GM handed him a bullpen that was 3/7ths unusable.  Yet the team is hovering around .500 and is a mediocre offense away from having a winning record. (Boswell Agrees).

Q: (paraphrased) Should the Nats keep Matt Stairs?

A: My answer is pretty clear: No, we should DFA him right now and bring up either Marrero or Aubrey from AAA to give the team a fighting chance at some more offense off the bench.   (Boswell thinks Stairs is sticking around because the AAA alternatives are mediocre and because Stairs is as good a defensive firstbase-man as Morse or Marrero.  I’m sorry, but I have a real hard time believing that.  Morse is a converted short-stop!  And Marrero is actually playing every day, as opposed to what Stairs has been doing for the past 3 years of his career (namely, sitting on his ass for 8 innings and then swinging out of it in the 9th a few times a week).

Q: (paraphrased): How much blame does Rizzo’s roster creation deserve for our last place team?

A: A fair question; one can certainly nit-pick the Willingham trade (as I have done in this space), complain about the bullpen construction (as I have also done in this space) and question the $126M Jayson Werth signing (along with every other MLB pundit on the internet).  But, you have to also acknowledge his moves that have paid off (Nix, Coffey, and Hairston signings, Gorzelanny trade in particular).  For me, I still think we sacrificed Willingham and his offense at the alter of increased defensive prowness in left field (where we now have the defensively challenged Nix patrolling) and we’re seeing it in the lineup.  You don’t just replace #5 hitters who consistently put up 130 OPS+ numbers.  (Boswell posted some unnerving slash lines for the road outputs of both Willingham and Werth that show they’re essentially equal hitters.  Great).

Q: (paraphrased) Did the Nationals play scheduling games with the quick-draw 5/17 phantom rainout?

A: Yes, they did.  Instead of barely getting above gate for a Tuesday afternoon game while the kids are in school, the team cancelled the game early and (most likely) schedules it as a day/night doubleheader on the first Saturday in July when the Pirates come back to town.  In addition, they got to skip a turn for Jordan Zimmermann, guaranteeing one more start later in the year.   Its too bad, since we were planning on attending, but a 1pm game on Saturday in July will be fun too.  (Boswell more or less agreed, also noting that our bullpen was fried and could use a day off).

Q: (paraphrased) Is MLB actively trying to weed out PED users?

A: No, nor can or will they ever.  Those older vets who were around during the Steroid hey-dey are for the most part nearing retirement or already admitted users … but there’s no retroactive penalties for someone like Alex Rodriguez.  All he has to look forward to is a series of $30M checks, increasing irrelevance as his skills erode, eventual daily front-page ostracism from the NY papers as he nears the end of his ridiculous contract, and then a 5-year debate over how many votes he’ll eventually get (but not be elected) in his first year of Hall of Fame eligibility.  (Boswell more or less agrees).

Now, do I believe that baseball has rid itself of PEDs now?  More or less I say yes.  Anyone caught now is simply labeled a moron, and the players now see the stigma attached to their accomplishments if they get caught.  I think this is directly related to the rather steep decline we’ve seen in offense over the past few seasons and marks a dawn of a new, interesting age in the game.

Q: Are there more injuries now than before in Baseball?

A: I don’t get a sense that more injuries are occurring this year versus years past.  The Nats havn’t lost a single start to injury (a vast change from 2010).   Of course, I have no research to back it up.  There’s a great injury database online that is worth investigating if you are so inclined.  (Boswell more or less agrees).

Q: (paraphrased) Is Adam LaRoche’s lack of production really because of his shoulder injury?

A: Yeah, I think it is.  A slight shoulder injury for a first-baseman isn’t too difficult to get around; its not like you’re making a dozen high-leverage throws across the diamond per week.  But a really bad shoulder injury will affect your swing.  I’m predicting a DL stint for LaRoche ((Update: sure enough he went on the DL 5/24) and just hoping that he doesn’t elect/be forced into Labrum surgery (which would blow the season for him and be a pretty significant blow to any chance this team had of realistically improving their record this year).  (Boswell thinks he’s going to “rest” for a bit and compares LaRoche to Jason Marquis last year).

Q: Were the Umpires “sending a message” with the odd Bernadina call on sunday?

A: I don’t think so.  But man the Nats have been on the receiving end of a lot of really bad calls lately.  Rizzo certainly let it be known that he thinks that’s the case.  Coincidentally, one of the major reasons pitchers need to be 100% stoic on the mound is near immediate and continual umpire retribution.  I watched Yunesky Maya openly gripe about ball/strike calls in a game last september and within a few pitches was called for a balk.  At the very least the umpire will eliminate the outside corners, which greatly reduces a pitcher’s effectiveness.  (Boswell thinks there may be some conspiracy theory involved).

Q: How long will it take the team to fill the gaping holes it has in its lineup?

A: Perhaps a couple years, and a lot of money.  Unlike pitching, teams can acquire hitting in free agency relatively quickly.  Thinking of where we need to be in 2013; we’re set on RF, CF (Harper), 3B, 2B and C.  We may need to look for help in LF, SS, and 1B.  Ironically, two of those positions are the two spots you can hide sluggers.  We may just live with Desmond hitting .220 at shortstop.  But there’s lots of slugger options that can fill those two spots.   A quick peek at the pre-2013 FA list shows some guys we could target.  How about BJ Upton or Curtis Granderson?  (Boswell thinks all 8 healthy starters this year are as good as last year’s team.  I disagree.  A ton of pop and power left in Dunn and Willingham).  I don’t think spending the farm on Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder is the answer either.

Q: Did Wilson Ramos make the wrong call on the 0-2 curve that cost the Nationals yesterday’s game?

A: Can’t say an 0-2 curve is the worst call out there.  Usually with free swingers on 0-2 you go with either a rising fastball at their eyes or a curve that starts over the plate and ends up so far outside they can’t hit it with a broom.  Zimmermann flat out missed with his curve; he said he was “trying to bounce it” and instead left it over the plate for a gopher ball.  Every pitcher makes mistakes; great hitters turn those mistakes into homers.  (Boswell agrees)

This was fun; i’m going to do this again next week!

Espinosa is carrying the team right now.

If I had a steady stream of questions coming in, I’d have my own mailbox edition.  As it stands though, I’ll just provide my own answers to the questions that MLB.com’s Nationals beat writer Bill Ladson selects for his semi-weekly mailbag.

Q: What’s the long-term plan for the leadoff spot? Danny Espinosa has a lot of power and deserves to be in the middle of the lineup.

A: I guess that depends on what the definition of “long term” is.  If long-term means the rest of the season, then I agree with Ladson’s assertion that Danny Espinosa is the best player we have for the lead-off spot.  He’s a switch hitter, is making good contact and can get on base better than any of the other candidates (.364 for the season thus far).  In a limited sample size last year he didn’t show this kind of patience; how quickly he’s made the adjustment to major league pitching. Theoretically we do have a prospect in Corey Brown in AAA acquired just for this purpose, and in prior AA seasons he’s shown 20-20 capabilities and good defense in center.  However he’s struggling in AAA this year (as he did last year) and he may not be an option this season.

I advocated the replacement of Nyjer Morgan in the off season, but quality leadoff-center field candidates don’t grow on trees in the Majors.  I did a quick review of all the starting CFs in the league for analysis purposes in this post about Harper and came up wanting.  I was hoping that Roger Bernadina would blossom into the role but he faltered at every step this spring training.

In the real “long-term” (i.e. 3-4 years from now) we seem to be grooming Bryce Harper to play center, so we don’t necessarily have to worry about finding a prototypical fast, defense-first, high OBP center fielder to fit into the lead off spot.  Not all lead-off hitters have to be no-power, run-first guys; Richie Weeks is doing just fine leading off for Milwaukee right now.

Personally, I agree that Espinosa could fit into this team better as a middle of the order guy, but our 3-4-5 long term is mostly set (Zimmerman-Harper-Werth).  Espinosa makes a ton of sense as a table setter, as does Desmond, so putting those guys 1-2 makes the most sense.

Q: Given his persistent shoulder problems so far this year, if Adam LaRoche has to spend time on the disabled list this season, what do you think the corresponding move by the Nats will be? Will we see Michael Morse at first base, with Roger Bernadina being called up?

A:  Ladson’s answer was to bring Bernadina up and put Morse at first.  I doubt that would happen; more likely we’d see Laynce Nix getting starts in LF with Morse at first.  Unless of course Morse continues to forget how to hit, at which point we may have to get creative.  We only have FOUR non-pitchers on the 40-man roster right now who aren’t either on the DL or in the majors; Chris Marrero, Bernadina, Harper, and Chris Brown.  Thats it; we have so little non-pitcher flexibility that continued injuries may really kill us this year.

That being said, I’ve personally played with a fully blown SLAP lesion and, while it is incredibly painful to throw, LaRoche is a first baseman who has to make a high-leverage throw perhaps once or twice a week.  Unless he manages to fully blow his rotator cuff, he should be able to gut out the season and have surgery in October.

Q: I asked Rizzo at the NatsFest why Bernadina and Matt Chico weren’t on the Major League roster and he didn’t give a solid answer. I can’t see any reason why these guys aren’t here. Do you agree?

A: The Nats were lucky (in my opinion) to retain Matt Chico after he was DFA’d in December 2010.  I was surprised by the move honestly; usually mid-20s lefties with any track record in the majors are coveted.  He now seems to be remaking himself as a lefty specialist and should compete or replace Doug Slaten in case of injury or poor performance.

Bernadina (as has been said elsewhere) lost out on the LF job, then CF job, then 4th outfielder job in spring training.  One may argue that the Nats chose to keep Nix over Bernadina more for options purposes and perhaps to leverage Nix into trade bait (since he fared so well in the Spring), but perhaps Nix just flat out impresses Riggleman more.  They’re both lefties, both play left field, but Nix is a bopper and can get the big hit. Bernadina had 460 at bats in 2010 to state his case and he didn’t.

Q: Any news on left-hander Oliver Perez?

A: Baseball America reported that Perez was placed on the minor league DL, but I (as does Sue Dinem over at www.nationalsprospects.com I suspect) think this is one of those “soft tissue” injuries that is meant to stash a player in Viera.  that being said, I’d agree with Ladson’s answer that he’s probably working with our pitching staff and trying to get back the form that earned him his big contract in the first place.  This is a complete low-risk signing for the Nats; its found money if they ever get anything from him.

Q: When is Wilson Ramos going to be the everyday catcher? Ivan Rodriguez’s offensive numbers are not good.

A: Boy, its going to be awful tough for Riggleman to bench a future Hall of Famer.  But Ramos seems like he’s stating his case with the bat every time he plays.  It is nice to have suddenly found a power hitter in a spot (catcher) that we’ve been batting 8th for years.  I’m guessing that Pudge the pro will recognize that he’s hurting the team and bite his tongue.

Q: I don’t want to get rid of Ian Desmond, but it’s clear to me and most people watching feel that he is not the answer at shortstop. When will management move him to second or Triple-A Syracuse and put Espinosa in the place he was supposed to be all along — shortstop?

A: Hear, hear!  I completely agree.  Desmond may in fact have a better arm but he is making mistakes left and right, and not just errors.  I would guess that another 35 error season will see these two switch places in spring training 2012.

Q: I am so incredibly confused why Riggleman falls in love with veterans that quite frankly look like they are past their prime.

A: If this questioner thinks Riggleman falls in love with veterans, then he must have been going psychotic watching Frank Robinson play Cristian Guzman every day for 5 months with a sub .200 batting average in 2006.  I agree with Ladson; having vets on the bench who understand their roles and serve as assistant coaches is far better than having Alberto Gonzalez whining about his playing time when clearly he wasn’t better than our options on the field.

Is Ankiel the solution for the Nats in center field? Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images via federalbaseball.com

Editors note: I was out of town last weekend and had this queued up but never hit publish :-).

MLB’s Nationals beat writer Bill Ladson hasn’t done an inbox for a few weeks, probably because he’s been busy at spring training.  Now that the regular season has started and we’ve had some debatable 25-man roster decisions made, he has published another edition of his Inbox column.  Here’s how i’d answer the questions he selects…

Q: What are you most worried about with the Nationals in 2011?

A: I’d say, in order, offense, the starting rotation, center field, and the back end of the bullpen.  I feel like we took a step backwards in terms of offense, we have improved the rotation over last year but still would probably rank this rotation 28th or 29th in the league, that Rick Ankiel in center field doesn’t really help us a ton, and that Drew Storen had such a rough spring that our end-of-game scenarios may be challenging.

Q: How do you think the Nationals will fare this season in the National League East with their off-season signings?

A: Probably the same as last year; last place.  Philadelphia and Atlanta are probably playoff bound no matter how many injuries the Phillies sustain.  Florida is probably taking a step side ways, having lost Uggla but picked up Vazquez (honestly, I don’t see how their fans don’t revolt at their perennial 87 win team doesn’t spend the $10 needed to improve themselves to be a 92 win team and challenge for the wild card).  The Nats may finish above the Mets, if only because that franchise is in such disarray right now.  They’re eating more than $20M in salary for players they’ve already released, they made no significant off-season moves and there’s serious injury question marks around 4 of their 5 best paid players (Santana, Beltran, Bay and Francisco Rodriguz).  I can see that time imploding badly and the Nats sneaking ahead of them for 4th place, maybe.

Q: If Bryce Harper has an amazing year in the Minors, is there a chance he will get a Major League callup?

A: They shouldn’t … but they may.  I would not be surprised to see the kid rocket through low-A and high-A ball.  It would be purely a late-season revenue grab to call him up, but they need to be careful on his service time accrual.  If he plays 30 days in September we’d have to keep him down an extra 30 days in 2012 to ensure he doesn’t become a super-2.  For those not clear on the implications of super-2 screwup, read this bit about the mistake the Giants made with Tim Lincecum.

That being said, i’d love to see him playing in the bigs before his 19th birthday.  That’d be fantastic.  And he may very well earn it.  His weakness in the AFL and in spring training was offspeed pitches, but its hard to fault the kid for wanting to swing and make something happen in the limited time he’s seen.  Once a full season gets going and he’s getting 4 ABs every night, he will learn patience, he will earn walks as pitchers work around him, and he’ll pick his spots.  This, more than anything else, is the lesson he needs to learn to advance in the minors.

Q: Do we see a parallel developing between Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell? How long do we have to wait?

A: It isn’t a bad parallel to note.  Bernadina lost the LF job, then the CF job, then the 4th outfielder job to a non-roster invitee.  He’s burning his last option as we speak.  He has a career 80 OPS+.  I openly questioned in this space why he was the presumed starter in LF all off-season, and as it turned out I was right about Morse being the better player.  I think he’ll play out the string in AAA this year and get traded for a low-level minor leaguer at the end of spring training 2012, just as we did with Morgan and Gonzalez this week.

Q: What do you think of the job general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman have done since they took over in 2009?

A: I think Rizzo has done a decent job with the major league team and a pretty good job with the farm system.  I feel like he’s tried a little TOO hard to rid the team of the non-defensive hitters Willingham and Dunn, and could have gotten more for them.  I understand the Werth signing but think (like the rest of baseball) that he overpaid and strangely backloaded the contract (why back load instead of front load?  We’re actually at LESS payroll this year than last, so we could be paying him $20M this year instead of $10M and still look like we’re treading water).  He’s definitely assembled a team in his vision; defensively gifted, a bullpen full of power arms.  Next step; power rotation.

Riggleman is doing the best with what he has; I don’t believe other managers could do much better.  Most people believe we have probably the 28th or 29th best collection of talent in the majors, but we’re achieving better than 29th place.

Q: Besides Harper, which rookie impressed you during Spring Training?

A: I cannot disagree with Ladson’s selection of Cole Kimball as “most impressive rookie.”  I would not be surprised to see him called up in 2011 and to start getting high-leverage appearances.

A running post, my answering the questions that Nats MLB beat writer Bill Ladson answers on a (mostly) weekly basis.  here’s Ladson’s 3/14/11 mailbox post with his answers.

Q: Is it too early to say Drew Storen lost his chance of being the team’s closer?
A: I think it was too early to say this even last year, when Storen was good but not fantastic in the closer role.  We wouldn’t have acquired a 103mph throwing Henry Rodriguez otherwise.  I think Storen *eventually* gets the role but until then its a mix between him, Tyler Clippard and Rodriguez depending on the night.  Riggleman likes to give relievers their assignments for the night ahead of time and seems certain to go closer-by-committee.

Q: Why do the Nationals keep taking chances on injured pitchers like Chien-Ming Wang and Cla Meredith, when a guy like Kevin Millwood is available?
A: Because Millwood was awful last year?  4-16, 5.10 era and an 83 ERA+.  Though he was effective in 2009, his 07 and 08 numbers were in line with his 2010 numbers.  2010 was the last year of a 5yr/$60M contract.  If the Yankees, who *desperately* need starters, aren’t biting on Millwood (or even Jeremy Bonderman) at this point then nobody will.  Besides, I’d much rather pay a 22-yr old prospect the major league minimum to put up a 5.00 era and a mid-80s ERA+rather than a veteran who would command 2-3 times more at a minimum.

Wang is a special case; I think the Nats spent the $1M guaranteed this year as a follow-on to their $2M investment last year.  $3M is a good gamble on a pitcher who won 19 games two years in a row in the AL East.  Meredith (i’m pretty sure) was NOT injured coming into the season, and his TJ diagnosis was a surprise.  He’s already released and should have only cost the team a few thousand in spring training stipends and meal monies.

By and large, it seems that you can gamble with one injury reclamation project per spring.  And they are good gambles; the league is filled with pitchers who have returned from major injuries on non-guaranteed contracts to contribute.

Q: With the Nationals signing first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two-year deal, have they lost faith in Chris Marrero, and should they consider trading him at this point?
A: It is a fair point.  I think the Nats got stuck between two situations; Marrero not being ready for a full time major league gig for 2011 and a quality first baseman not wanting to come here on a one-year deal.  So they bought 2 years of LaRoche and probably cost Marrero a year of development time.  They have not lost faith in him … but to rise to the majors as a first baseman you have to have 30+ homer power.  This isn’t the 80s when a skinny Don Mattingly-like first baseman can arise and prosper.  You need production out of that position.  Until Marrero displays that, he’s stuck in the minors.

Q: If Danny Espinosa starts off the season cold, who will come in as the second baseman?
A: Nobody, really.  The team is basically all in on both Desmond and Espinosa to start 150+ games at their respective positions this year.  Alberto Gonzalez is not a lock to make this team versus Alex Cora, and neither can really hit a lick.  Jerry Hairston can backfill but is no more than a role player at this point in his career.  There is a significant gap from the majors to our 2nd base prospects Kobernus (who has not played like a 2nd rounder at all) and Lombardozzi (who played well in the AFL but is still needing minor league time).  We all better cross our fingers these guys don’t get hurt or struggle badly.

Q: Do you see Jerry Hairston Jr. taking significant at-bats away from Espinosa and Ian Desmond — potentially retarding their progress?
A: Not at all; once-a-week starter and late inning defensive replacement to spell their legs during the grind.

Q: How can you be even remotely upbeat about Morgan? His base-running decisions last year were terrible and his foot speed is supposed to be his biggest offensive threat. I like the guy’s heart, but I doubt he’ll be anything but a disappointment this year.
A: I believe Morgan will break camp as the leadoff hitter/center fielder, but will probably only be given about 2-3 weeks to show he’s back on track at the plate before the team goes with Rick Ankiel or Roger Bernadina in center.  If this happens, Morgan’s time in the majors may be close to complete; he’s 30, has a history of behavioral issues from last year, and isn’t getting any faster or younger.

Q: Are you surprised that Laynce Nix is facing an uphill battle to make the Nationals’ 25-man roster?
A: Why would anyone be surprised that an outfielder on a non-guaranteed contract is having problems making a team with 5 outfielders on major league contracts?  Nix’s success was always insurance over the likes of Morse and Ankiel not working out.  If a team wants to trade for him, all the better.  He doesn’t exactly fit the Mike Rizzo defense-first profile of outfielders as it is.