I forgot to publish my previous edition of this. So its located below. Meanwhile here’s the 6/20/11 edition. I don’t think Bill’s done one of these since. A lot of the statistics quoted were at the time of writing (6/20/11) and may be a bit dated by now.
Q: How do you think Jayson Werth has done this year, considering he hasn’t had Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche or a productive leadoff hitter in the lineup for most of the season so far?
A: He’s barely above 100 OPS+, after a number of seasons in the league top 10. His slash line: .232/.332/.409. I think he should be doing better no doubt and is finding out how tough it is to lead a team without much in the way of lineup protection. (Ladson thinks he’s doing fine, when you take into account his leadership in the clubhouse).
Q: Should the Nationals trade a valuable reliever like Tyler Clippard to get a hitter that could improve the team’s offense?
A: The Nationals should make any trade, involving any player, if the return is deemed worth it. Perhaps not Zimmerman, Strasburg or Harper, but anyone else is fair game. That being said, I don’t think Clippard should be traded unless he fetches quite a haul, because of his importance to our bullpen. So perhaps its a self fulfilling prophesy; we won’t trade him unless he gets valued like a front-end starter, but he’s merely an 8th inning reliever. (Ladson more or less agrees with what i’ve written).
Q: Should Espinosa start hitting strictly right-handed?
A: Here’s his 2011 splits, and they’re pretty distinct. He’s hitting .206 as a lefty, .315 as a righty. But, look at his BABIP split. .217 as a lefty and .352 as a righty. So he’s been amazingly unlucky as a left-handed batter so far. Despite what his splits look like, you don’t purposely get rid of a lefty-capable hitter. He’s a rookie after all (lest we forget), and can improve his switch hitting abilities. (Ladson agrees; let him continue to switch hit).
Q: Do you see the Nationals making many major moves at the Trade Deadline?
A: Realistically, I can see the team moving a couple of pieces (perhaps Marquis and Coffey). I could also see them make a couple of waiver-wire trades very late in the season (Cora and Hairston). I don’t see them acquiring any MLB players or moving any prospects. If players like Ankiel or Gaudin were playing better, they’d be trade targets too. (Ladson for some reason thinks the team will try to acquire a lead-off hitter and a starting pitcher, mentioning Gorzelanny as the one to be replaced. Can’t see either move at this point in the season. Getting a lead-off hitter will be an off-season task).
Q: Why would the Nats trade Jason Marquis? He solidifies the third spot in the rotation for 2012.
A: For all of these reasons:
- He’s in a contract year and is pitching better than he would be once he gets paid.
- He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has value now.
- Did everyone forget how bad he was in 2010?
- Any contract he signs will be difficult to reap the value of as it plays out.
- He’s not an Elias typeA or typeB pitcher, so if we lose him to free agency we’ll get zero compensation.
- We’re not winning the world series this year, therefore….
- All losing teams trade off veterans at the trade deadline for prospects. And we should too.
2012’s rotation could very easily be the same as 2011’s, except you replace Marquis with Strasburg.
(Ladson thinks Marquis stays if we’re in the playoff race, and is dealt if we’re not. Makes sense to me).
Q: Michael Morse has played well at first base. Is there any chance the Nationals will trade or release Adam LaRoche to make sure Morse stays at the position?
A: Release? no way. He’s owed a good chunk of change for 2012 ($8M plus another $1M buyout of his 2013 option). Yes Morse has been good at 1st, but I think you move him back to left and look for Laroche back at 1st in 2012. LaRoche is better in the field and was a pretty consistent 25hr, 100rbi guy before his injury. Because of his injury, there’s practically no trade market for him now. So we’re stuck with him for 2012. (Ladson agrees with my sentiments on LaRoche).
Q: Do you think we might persuade Ivan Rodriguez to join the Giants to get some pitching in return?
A: It would make sense, but the Giants seem to be making do without Posey (they are in 1st place after all). And they’ve made public statements saying they weren’t going to make a panic trade. Pudge isn’t going to fetch all that much, perhaps a prospect in the low minors outside the top 20 BA rankings. For that, its worth keeping him for 2011 and seeing if maybe even he sticks around in a backup role. (Ladson agrees)
Q: Regarding Matt Stairs — aren’t Pudge, Laynce Nix and Marquis better designated-hitter options during Interleague Play?
A: Yes they are (well, except Marquis. Come on; he’s a good hitting pitcher, not a good hitter). And I continue to be amazed that Stairs is on this roster. He is now 5/42 for the season with one extra base hit and is routinely getting fooled by mediocre middle-bullpen guys. I believe he needs to be released/turned into a bench coach/something and have a more versatile guy brought up. Looking at Syracuse hitters, Antonelli gives some middle infield flexiblity, Marrero is already on the 40-man and can be brought up without a corresponding move, and Aubrey has MLB experience and can play 1B. Stairs is obviously a good guy but at the expense of a 25-man roster spot? (Ladson says, yes those guys are probably better options).
This is a bit of an older Inbox edition (I was out of town when it dropped, and just saved the link), but I love answering questions that people don’t ask me about the Nats. :-). Reading from above, you’ll see some duplicated, repeated questions (especially about Pudge and Stairs).
Here’s Ladson’s 6/5/11 inbox and my answers to his questions.
Q: If the Nats were to trade Ivan Rodriguez, who do you think would be the new backup?
A: Ramos would start and I believe the team would call up Carlos Maldonado from Syracuse to be the once-a-week backup. Maldonado has MLB experience and would know his role. I would NOT call up Jesus Flores, who I would rather continue playing full time in AAA building up value. (Ladson thinks it would be Flores, which I think would be a disservice to his career to have him come up and ride the bench in the Majors)
Q: What do you think the Nats will do if Matt Stairs continues his subpar hitting? Could they release him or just package him in a trade to get rid of him?
A: I *think* the Nats will just continue to let him eat a 25-man spot. The argument is that there’s not really anyone in AAA who is earning a trip to the majors and Riggleman likes having Stairs around as a pseudo-bench coach.
I *wish* they’d just cut him and bring up someone like Chris Marrero, even if he’s not deserving, to get some more roster flexibility and to have someone who can actually play the field competently. What Trade value does Stairs have right now? Who wants to trade for a guy who is hitting (as of 6/13/11) 5 for 40 on the season? His OPS+ is 16. 16?!
(Ladson asks who we’d replace him with, citing this as the reason he’s sticking around. But he notes that Stairs could be in trouble once inter-league play is finished).
Q: Every time you answer a question about the Nats’ leadoff spot, you never mention the names of Stephen Lombardozzi or Eury Perez. Are these guys not as good as their numbers suggest, or are they that far away?
A: I think the answer needs some context. Are we talking about leadoff for 2011 or lead-off for the future?
Lead-off in 2011 is a lost cause. The team gambled that Nyjer Morgan would return to his 2009 numbers and chose to forget all the incidents that turned him into a character liability last season. Suddenly we were faced with having no natural leadoff hitter in the last week of March. Now we’re cobbling together the likes of Bernadina, Desmond, or Espinosa at the top of the lineup, none of which are good enough or suited enough for leadoff.
Longer term. Lombardozzi is an interesting possibility. His career slash line in the minors is .297/.372/.412, and that’s been incredibly consistent throughout every level (he has almost identical numbers at every level). He plays 2b, where suddenly we’re rather overloaded with the very good Danny Espinosa, the probable destination of 1st round draft pick Anthony Rendon, and 2009 2nd round draft pick Jeff Kobernus (though he’s struggling in Potomac as a 3rd year pro and may be a draft bust). Perhaps the best case is moving Espinosa to SS, Lombardozzi to 2B, Rendon to 1st or left and either trading or making Desmond super-utility guy.
As for Eury Perez, he’s one of the few DSL grads hanging around in our minor league system right now. He’s in Potomac right now but has seen a precipitous drop in his OBP at the high-A level. As of 6/13 he has only THREE walks for the entire season (?). Inarguably though he has speed (64 Sbs last year) and would be the perfect lead-off/center field type. But…. isn’t Bryce Harper being groomed to play center? Werth presumably occupies right field for the next 7 years, and Harper is athletic enough to play center (and would be a ton more valuable there). If Perez is a plus-defender he’d be wasted in left.
My ideal 2013 lineup if everything goes well: Lombardozzi (2b), Espinosa (SS), Zimmerman (3b), Harper (cf), Werth (rf), Rendon (1b), Ramos (c), Desmond? (lf). That’s some potential fire-power.
(Ladson succinctly agress with what i’ve said; prospects are far away, we have nobody right now, and Rizzo may make a move).
Q: When do you think we will see Ross Detwiler this season?
A: Excellent question. Can the answer be “never?” Detwiler has taken two massive steps backwards this year. Instead of finally being healthy and ready to produce at the MLB level, he’s been the worst of 5 starters in Syracuse all season. Yes, his last two starts have been quality starts, but before that he had a string of seven straight starts where he gave up 4 or more earned runs. This for a first round draft pick who was supposed to be featuring in the majors.
I suspected he is or was hurt. Because he was lights out in his first start of the AAA season. Now I just don’t know whats going to happen. Maya was the first call up to replace an injured starter, and will most likely return. Perhaps Detwiler gets another shot if we trade Marquis or if we have another injury, but honestly Tom Milone has earned the call up far more than Detwiler. (Ladson agrees, but predicts a 9/1 callup if Detwiler improves. duh).
Q: Nyjer Morgan was a fantastic leadoff hitter. Any chance they make a deal with Milwaukee and bring him back to D.C. where he belongs?
A: Another humorous question; this one made me laugh out loud it was so absurd. Rizzo wanted to get rid of him so badly he took back a low-A minor leaguer with no future as trade collateral. Morgan was a fantastic lead off hitter for the last half of 2009. When he finally got a shot to be a full time player in 2010, he struggled badly. His numbers are great in 2011 … but he’s a part time player. We’re moving on. (Ladson agrees, saying Morgan is better than what we have, but that he’s not that good a leadoff hitter).
Q: What do you think of Jim Riggleman as a manager?
A: Interesting question. I think Riggleman has done a decent job stabilizing the bullpen and getting guys to understand their roles. I think he is a bit old-fashioned in the way he manages from time to time, pulling starters a bit early to play the matchup game but also leaving guys in a batter too long. I think the fact that this team is near .500 given that they’ve gotten a grand total of 8 games out of their best hitter, their major FA acquisition is batting .236 and their first-baseman/clean up hitter is out for the season is relatively amazing. He may be perfect for the up and coming rookie crop we expect, based on his experience and no-nonesense approach. He doesn’t have a very good managerial track record though, so one mediocre season when the front office expects greatness and he’ll be out. (Ladson thinks he’s an excellent manager and thinks he deserves to have his option picked up).