Nationals Arm Race

I published the “way too early” Phase 1 Mock draft post in April, covering all the very early mocks plus those that hadn’t really taken into account a big chunk of the spring season. Then, I published Phase 2 mock draft review on 6/8/26, with a deeper dive into analysis and some macro draft thoughts. That Phase 2 post ended up being rather lengthy; we’re still technically in that “weeks leading up to the draft” portion of the Mock Draft season, without a ton of movement. However, by the time you read this HS is done, College is done, and top prospects are sitting at home fielding phone calls from interested teams (1st rounders aren’t likely to go spend a couple weeks playing summer wood bat, but lesser players may in order to get some last minute impress-the-scouts views).

Since the mocks continue to roll in, here’s another post. This time, I’m separating out the “Draft Class Ranks” from the “Mock Drafts” since they have different aims. I’ve captured these draft boards mostly so that I can reference them in my 2026 draft class post, to kind of show where players were ranked that we ended up picking.

Draft Board/Draft Ranks by major Pundit:

• The Athletic/Keith Law Draft top 100 5/14/26, updated on 7/3/26 to his final Draft top 100 big board.
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel top 150 Draft Ranks 5/17/26, updated on 7/8/26 to be his Final 250 ranked board
• Baseball America Top 500 Draft Board 5/27/26, then updated Baseball America top 500 Draft Board 6/24/26. This board was finalized pre-draft at 500 on 7/8/26.
  • Baseball America published a Top 500 Prep-only list 6/5/26
• Baseball Prospectus Draft board 5/28/26: (paywall), and their final Draft board 7/8/26 (paywall)
• MLBPipeline Top 200 Draft Prospects 5/29/26, updated to Top 250 on 7/5/26
• D1Baseball Top 250 College-Only Draft Prospects 6/4/26, then their final Top 250 College-only draft prospects 7/4/26
• D1Baseball All American Teams 6/25/26: not draft related, but nearly the entire 1st team has been mentioned in these mock draft posts.

Also, I’m collecting 2026 Draft Reference material here for eventual use in my Draft recaps.

• MLB.com’s Draft Guide, with links to all MLB and MLBpipeline’s resources
• MLB Draft Tracker: the best guide to the draft as it occurs.
• Baseball America’s Draft Tracker: which often times gets signings and bonus dollars faster/more accurately than MLB
• MLB Draft Order: at MLB.com
• Total bonus Pools and Bonus value of every pick
• The Nats Draft Tracker, with a new 2026 Draft Tab that i’ve already pre-populated with slot values.
• MLB Draft Order at my own resource, which shows all the picks as they’ve evolved, been traded, lost.
• The Athletic’s 2026 Draft guide

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Here’s the mocks, starting with those released right after my last post

• The Athletic/Keith Law Mock 2.0 6/10/26: Lackey, Bell, Cholowsky, Emerson, Flora. This is a crazy departure from basically every other mock we’ve seen in the cycle. Nats at #11 are on Chris Hacopian, the TAMU 2B with ties to the DC area (Churchhill HS then two years at Maryland), though he also mentions Jared Grindlinger as a name that the Nats are tied to at this pick. In Law’s mock, other names we’d like to see like Burress are gone.
• CBSSports/Mike Axisa 6/12/26 mock: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Pretty standard. Nats at #11 on Grindlinger, saying that the Nats were heavily scouting his last few HS games.
• MLBPipeline/Jonathan Mayo One-month away Mock 6/12/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. No real change for Mayo over the last few mocks for the top 5. Nats at #11 he now has Justin Lebron, the very tooled up Alabama SS who has been all over the map this draft season, from an early top 5 pick to late 1st round. In this scenario, both Burress, and Hacopian are gone, as is Bell (who Law has going super early), the Nats leave Grindlinger alone, and pass on college guys like Curiel, Flukey, and Reese.
• Baseball America Staff Draft 6/15/26: Lackey, Cholowsky, Emerson, Booth, Curiel. Nats “GM” at #11 got Ryder Helfrick, C from Arkansas. The guys just after the Helfrick pick: Gringlinger, Hacopian, Gracia, Reese, and Lebron… basically 5 guys who I think are better picks than Helfrick. BA warns that this is not a “mock draft” but instead what their staff picking at those spots would do, but Curiel in the top 5 seems crazy.
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Who they should pick Mock 6/18/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. So, the classic top 5 we’ve been seeing for months. McDaniel says the top 3 are a tier, then the next two, then 6 and up. He’s got the Nats at #11 on Liam Peterson, the RHP friday starter from Florida. First time i’ve seen anyone project Peterson to the Nats, who would be leaving Flukey, Gringlinger, and Curiel on the table with this pick. McDaniel points out that the Boston-alum heavy front office was “good at identifying pitching it could optimize” and Peterson could slot in. I have to tell you, I don’t hate getting a top college pitcher at this point in the Nats farm system development … which is super SS heavy.
• MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Mock on 6/18/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Booth. First guy that I can think of that inserts Booth into the top 5 (he has Flora 6th). He has Nats on Hacopian, though notes that the industry knows that the team is “in” on Gringlinger. This mock has the two-way prep star falling to #19.
• MLBPipeline Callis & Mayo tag team a Mock 6/26/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Flora. Pretty standard. Nats at #11 they have Kentucky SS Tyler Bell, who is picked over the likes of Gringlinger, Hacopian, Reese, and Lebron in this mock.
• CBSSports/Mike Axisa 6/26/26 mock: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Bell; from his last mock he moves up Lackey a spot, and puts Bell at #5 after a strong CWS finish. He also describes Bell as an underslot guy at this position, which seems fair given that he’s got a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder that he’s played with all year that will require immediate surgery . Nats at #11 still on Gringlinger, saying the Nats would let him be a 2-way player to start his pro career.
• BA Mock 5.0 post CWS and Combine 6/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Standard top 5, though he says Cholowsky isn’t certain 1-1 anymore, and that Pittsburgh at 5 could do an underslot deal instead of picking the obvious Flora. Nats at #11 on Ace Reese, the power-hitting 3B from Mississippi State. He recognizes the industry all says Gringlinger, but BA says the Nats are moving more towards college bats now. Grindlinger falls to #20 as a result.
• Prep Baseball Report Staff Mock (via D1baseball) 7/2/26: Lackey, Emerson, Cholowsky, Flora, Lombard. Sorry, but this just seems out of touch with reality. There’s zero chance Tampa passes on Cholowsky if he somehow doesn’t go 1-1, and there’s little chance the Giants pass on Lombard. There’s a reason these mock drafts look similar; its because the pundits have relationships with GMs and know who they’ve been sending cross checkers out to see. They also put a guy at #6 who I’ve literally never heard of. Nats at #11 take prep lefty Gio Rojas, leaving a slew of top 10 names on the board.
• MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo Mock 7/2/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Booth; Booth jumps Flora in this mock. Nats at #11 get Reese. They leave Curiel, Bell, Hacopian, Lebron, and Gringlinger on the board to take Reese, which seems unlikely.
• Keith Law’s Mock 3.0 7/6/26: Emerson, Lackey, Cholowsky, Lombard, Flora. Law’s research now shows CWS at 1-1 have Cholowsky “a distant third” for the pick, At #11 he has the nats taking Hacopian, as he did a month ago, saying that the Nats staff loves Grindlinger but is concerned about the amount of dev time needed for a 2-way 17 yr old.
• Not a mock, but Kiley McDaniel posted the “one big question” each team faces with its 1st round pick on 7/6/26. The Nat’s conversation talks about how recent Boston draft proclivities at the top may show up in the Nats draft this year.
• Baseball America Staff Draft v4.0 7/6/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Flora, Booth. Nats at #11 got Reese.
• Prospects1500 Mock Draft 7/7/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Booth. At #11 they mock Carson Bolemon, a prep LHP from Southside Christian (HS) in South Carolina to the team. This seems crazy; he’s ranked in the 20s and has not once appeared in any mock draft conversation for the team.
• ProspectsLive team did a podcast/video mock 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. Nats at #11 they go with Grindlinger.
• BA Mock 6.0 final mock 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Booth, Flora. We’re seeing Lombard with some late slippage, and Booth seems to be the name now stepping into the top 5. As with their previous mock, they have Nats on Reese. Gringlinger drops to #19.
• Baseball Prospect Journal Staff Mock Draft 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. nats at #11 get Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah (Ga.) HS, another name that basically nobody is mentioning to the Nats in particular, or this high. At least the boards have him reasonably within the realm of the #11 range.
• Fangraphs/McDaniel Mock v1.0 7/8/26: Emerson, Lackey, Cholowsky, Flora, Booth. Like other major pundits, he’s reading the tea leaves and seeing that Cholowsky may be slipping and that Booth has taken over Lombard’s spot int he top 5. In this draft, Drew Burress drops to the Nats at #11, and if this happens I’d think the team would be ecstatic.

The draft runs from July 11 to 13th this year, so we’re just a few days away.

I may do a “final mock” post the day of the draft to capture the final sentiments heading into the weekend.

My predictions right now?

• Top 5: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey (in some order), then Booth, Flora.
• Nats at #11: I think they’re taking Reese.

Since we’ve been talking about Baseball America ranks this week … and since BA just named the Nats overall system 4th best in the sport, lets see how they’re ranking our prospects in this Mid July update.

Baseball America does the best job of reshuffling prospect lists during the season, and I’m here for it. They did a mid May update that we covered here, and now we get a July 1 update just before the draft (where we’ll presumably add in at least a few more top 30 system prospects).

For now, this is a great way to gauge these players’ 2026 seasons… in some cases. After a point (as we’ll see) BA just kind of gave up and cut-n-pasted from the previous ranking.

Here’s their current top 30, with ranks pulled in from 2 months ago and from January to show evolution in 2026:

7/1/2026	5/18/2026	1/7/2026	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	1	1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	4	7	Seaver	King	SS
3	2	2	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	5	Pre-Acqu	Devin	Fitz-Gerald	SS
5	3	21	Ronny	Cruz	SS
6	7	5	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
7	6	4	Luis	Perales	RHP (Starter)
8	8	Pre-Acqu	Gavin	Fein	SS
9	9	19	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP (Starter)
11	20	15	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
12	11	13	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF (Corner)
13	15	11	Landon	Harmon	RHP (Starter)
14	12	6	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
15	10	3	Harry	Ford	C
16	22	16	Yohandy	Morales	3B
17	17	12	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
18	28	30+	Cayden	Wallace	2B/3B
19	14	9	Coy	James	SS
19	13	Pre-Acqu	Yeremy	Cabrera	OF (corner)
20	16	8	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
21	18	Pre-Acqu	Alejandro	Rosario	RHP
22	21	25	Riley	Cornelio	RHP (Starter)
23	23	10	Angel	Feliz	SS/3B
24	24	18	Caleb	Lomavita	C
25	25	Pre-Acqu	Samil	Serrano	OF (Corner)
26	26	20	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
27	27	24	Yoel	Tejeda Jr.	RHP (Starter)
28	19	17	Marconi	German	SS
29	30	14	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)
30	30+	30+	De la Cruz	Marlon	RHP (Starter)

Here’s some thoughts going down the list.

• Having King now ascended to #2 in the system seems appropriate, even with his June swoon. Too bad we have the NL starting All Star short stop blocking his path to the majors. A good problem to have. His dip in performance has slowed the calls for him to get promoted.
• Honestly, I don’t understand why they have Susana so high; he’s got an unspecified injury with no timeframe for return and has been doing “throwing programs” for months. I don’t think anyone thought his injury would cost him an entire season, but it’s leaning that way.
• Ronny Cruz’s trajectory has dipped slightly, but he’s still top 5 after his torrid 2026 start.
• They’re holding firm on Gavin Fein, and I hope he pays off. Moving him off SS lowers his value, and i’m surprised he’s still in the top 10.
• Based on what you’ve seen in 2026, would you have Luis Perales at #7? I wouldn’t. Raise your hand if you want Jake Bennett back.
• I like the recognition that Jackson Kent is now nearly a top 10 prospect, flourishing in AAA.
• Clemmey taking a dive, as we’ve discussed a ton, going from #6 in January to #14 now. Honestly, that seems fair given what he’s struggled to do since his AA promotion.
• What the heck is going on with Harry Ford? #3 in January, now #15.
• Great to see Cayden Wallace showing up; he was just promoted to AAA where, I guess, he’ll play short stop? I mean, House is the 3B, Glasser has played the entire season at 2B. Maybe Glasser (listed as a SS) will move over and Wallace plays 2B. I can’t imagine the team will sit one of them on the regular so that Lipscomb (the only true SS on the AAA roster) can play at this point.
• Both Coy James and Luke Dickerson were top 10, now nearly out of the top 20. Both are young, and have some time, but not a good pro career start really for either.
• Lomavita’s excellent June apparently too late for him to get any change from the last ranking; he sits at #24 still.
• Marlon De La Cruz gets the last spot, pushing out Davian Garcia (the only player ranked 6 weeks ago not listed). Fun fact; this is the first time he’s been ranked by any shop for this team, ever. He’s a 2024 IFA who signed for so little that they didn’t bother to register it, and now he’s in the LowA rotation.

Here’s a monthly check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system. Stats are for just June 2026 unless otherwise noted.

(Note: I wrote this before the July 4th holiday, with its slew of moves/DFAs/promotions, so I know i’m missing some details).

I’ll be using my own personal top 20 to drive the rankings, the ones I posted right after the season started and which are a bit outdated. If I was to re-rank the top 10 right now versus what’s below, i’d probably go Willits, King, Fitz-Gerald, Sykora, Susana, Cruz, Kent, Petry, Sime, and then maybe a wild card like Morales or Lomavita.

All the stats links I use are at my Nats Links page, which I visit every day for various reasons. I won’t repeat all the stats links and transactions pages and what not; just go to the Links page.

1. Eli Willits SS, High-A: Slashed .246/.418/.590 for an OPS north of 1.000 and the continued streaking up prospect boards (he’s now #3 on MLBPipeline’s overall minor league list). Reminder: he’s 18, doesn’t turn 19 until December. Also named to the Futures game roster along with Sime. Temperature: red hot, POTY candidate, another promotion candidate.
2. Henry Ford, C AAA: had a .244/.426/.415 split for the month, good for a halfway decent looking OPS figure, thanks to a slew of walks bolstering the OBP. Still not impressing, which is why his prospect stock is falling fast. He’s now at least down to 7th or 8th in the system. Temperature: still cool.
3. Jarlin Susana, RHP (starter) AA: On the 60-day DL to open the season, and is still there. Per the Nats injury report, the last update was 6/12 reporting that he was throwing off a mound. What gives here? It took him 5 weeks to go from throwing on flat ground to the mound. Did the team hide the severity of his injury? Temperature: still on ice.
4. Travis Sykora: RHP (starter) AA: out for the season, the injury report lists his return as 2027. Temperature: on ice.
5. Gavin Fien SS/3B, Low-A: Finally had a good month at the plate, .294/.380/.529. He’s still entirely playing OF, despite all the middle infielder promotions out of low-A, which lowers his value a little bit. He’s splitting time between CF and RF. Temperature: warming up.
6. Alex Clemmey, LHP (Starter) AA: Clemmey had another mediocre month; 5.53 ERA, too many hits, too many walks. I’m not sure what to do here; is it possible he’s hit a ceiling? Temperature: pretty cold.
7. Seaver King, SS AAA: After a torrid start to the season, King cooled this month, slashing just .256/.323/.389. he’s playing a lot of 2B, presumably in case the Nats want a stretch bat to take over. But, unless he continues to hit, he’s not coming up anytime soon. Temperature: cooled for a bit.
8. Luis Perales, RHP (starter) AAA: Perales reverted to earlier bad form, and continues to remind us that the Bennet-for-Perales trade sucked. 20/11 k/bb in 21 innings and a 6.53 ERA. Temperature: cold.
9. Devin Fitz-Gerald, 2B/SS, AA: AA has been a wake-up call for Fitz-Gerlad; he hit just .132 this month. Temperature: Hot to get to AA, now cold.
10. Landon Harmon, RHP (starter): Low-A: He remains on the 7-day DL in Low-A with an oblique strain that continues to be described as “not serious.” He hasn’t thrown since April 24th, meaning he’s now working on 9 weeks out of action. Temperature: On Ice, starting to be concerning.
11. Ronny Cruz: SS High-A. After a tough first month, he’s picking it up. 263/.314/.400. Not awesome, but not terrible. Temperature: luke warm?
12. Luke Dickerson, SS/CF Low-A: .253/.451/.413. Dickerson took a TON of walks this month, ironic since our discussions on this platform included criticism of the amount of Ks he was taking. Well, this month he still struckout a lot, but only hit one out to go with 27 BBs in 22 games. Interesting. At least he’s back on the dirt, playing mostly middle infield now, moving around all three skill positions. Temperature: meh. Not sure what to think here.
13. Ethan Petry, 1B AA: his promotion to AA has not gone well: he hit just .172 in June Temperature: Hot to get to AA, now cold.
14. Coy James, SS/3B, Low-A: No real change here; .243/.360/.365 for the month. Not really living up to the prospect hype so far. Temperature: still cold.
15. Angel Felix, SS High-A: Meh slash line of .265/.315/.422 . Showed a little bit of pop. May be impacted by being moved of SS thanks to Willits. Temperature: cool.
16. Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (starter) High-A: He cleaned up this month: 1.38 ERA and 33/11 K/BB in 22 ip and probably merited a promotion; perhaps another month of work and he’ll be up.  Temperature: hot.
17. Jackson Kent, LHP (Starter) AAA: . Jackson Kent’s first full month in AAA went swimmingly: 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA and solid K/BB numbers (28/7 in 24ip). Is it possible that Kent will be the first 2024 class draftee to get to the majors? Temperature: Pretty warm
18. Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (starter): High-A: Sime’s first month in High-A was … interesting. 5 starts, 17ip, 2.60 ERA and 27ks in 17ip, so he still is throwing it by people. But, he also has 16 walks in those 17ip, which has bloated his Whip a bit to 1.50. Named to the Futures game roster. Temperature: hot.
19. Davian Garcia, RHP (starter) AA; On the full-season DL, hopefully to return in 2027. Temperature: on ice.
20. Yeremy Cabrera CF High-A: has struggled upon his promotion; hit just .205 this month. Temperature: hot to get to High-A, now cold.

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Notables #20 and above by level:

in AAA:

• #27 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B in AAA finally had a bad month: .230/.287/.437.
• #31 Phillip Glasser 2B in AAA had a great month: slashing .438/.491/.500. He’s back on track. .
• #33 Albimec Ortiz 1B/DH in AAA is hitting just .225.
• Also, not for nothing: 40-man members Hassell (.203) and especially Weimer (hitting just .125) are not doing themselves any favors.

In AA:

• #21 Sam Peterson is struggling, hitting just .221 this month.
• #26 Caleb Lomavita had a monster June; 8 homers powering his slash line to .286/.352/.762. Too bad Ford blocks his path to AAA.
• #30 Cayden Wallace is producing at a very high clip once again: .329/.346/.633. He can play 2B, 3B, and has even been playing a bunch of SS this season.
• #60 TJ White, newly promoted to AA this month, hit just .154 for the Senators in June.

In High-A:

• #40 Kevin Bazzell continued to hit this month, slashing .300//.345/.440. Not bad for a catcher, but see above; Lomavita in AA is crushing, and Ford in AAA can’t be sat. So there’s a log jam.
• #41 Cristian Vaquero remains on the DL, but has started rehab. Somehow he’s been on the DL since early May and I never saw it; he’s been on the “active” roster on the Big Board for weeks.
• #61 Randal Diaz played well this month: .304/.420/.411, somehow getting playing time in a crowded middle infield in Wilmington.
• Elijah Green cut down on his K’s this month once again, down to 34 for t he month (in 21 games). His astounding figures for the season? 67 games, 243 ABs, and 127 Ks. He’s striking out at a 52% clip for the season. I’ve just never seen anything like it before.
• Unranked but recently promoted Jacob Walsh hit just .206 for the month.
• Unranked but recently promoted Jack Moroknek hit just .125 upon his promotion.

In Low-A:

• #38 Sir Jamison Jones hit just .125 this month.
• #39 Rafael Ramirez Jr took a step back slashing .226/.368/.371.
• #51 Dashyll Tejeda, newly promoted, held his own his first month in full season ball: .246/.364/.393
• #94 Manual Cabrera got promoted up from FCL and has been hitting well: .288/.377/.458. He’s playing mostly 3B
• Unranked Hunter Hines got demoted, then destroyed Low-A with an OPS > 1.000. may want to put him back up.
• Unranked Jordan Williams, a 26yr old NDFA signed earlier this year, has been cruising: .349/.472/.512. Williams is an interesting one: he didn’t finish his NCAA eligibility until he was 25.
  

In FCL, here’s hitting stats for some of our notable hitting prospects recently moved up from the DSL.

• #23 Marconi German; .238/.432/.413 in june.
• #36 Brayan Cortesia: .288/.447/.288. that’s not a lot of power.
• #42 Daniel Hernandez: .222/.323/.259. Not good.
• #46 Browm Martinez: .259/.474/.389. Nots of walks.
• #47 Victor Hurtado struggled in june: .237/.387/.271
  

In DSL, here’s hitting stats for the four marquee 2026 IFA signings:

• Isaias Suarez OF (corner): .207/.452/.207 in 11 games
• Angel Ramirez OF (corner): 211/.333/.649 in 38Abs so far.
• Samil Serrano OF (cf): 310/.397/.517 in 58ABs so far.
• Juan Duran 1B: 357/.438/.956

In the DSL, the remaining big money 2025IFA signings who are still there:

• Ronny Bello SS: .294/.387/.412; big improvement over last year.
• Esnaider Vargas: Of/DH: .278/.371/.519: providing some more pop this year for sure.
• Jonierbis Garces: OF (corner): hitting just .184

Here’s the June 2026 check-in on rotations. I’ll return to a bit of bullpen-commentary this month, because we have just gotten some significant bullpen news in the majors.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, etc.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

• Big Board, Draft Tracker, and IFA Tracker
• Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com, Nats MLB stats at fangraphs.com
• AAA Rochester stats at milb.com. AAA Rochester Stats at fangraphs.com
• AA Harrisburg stats at milb.com, AA Harrisburg Stats at fangraphs.com
• High-A Wilmington stats at milb.com, High-A Wilmington Stats at fangraphs.com
• Low-A Fredericksburg Stats at milb.com, Low-A Fredericksburg stats at fangraphs.com
• FCL Nationals Stats at milb.com
• DSL Nationals Pitching Stats at milb.com

All Stats quoted are as of 6/30/26’s games.

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We’ll start with the Majors.

• Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
• End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
• End of May 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (still with openers), Littell (also with openers), Alvarez.
• End of June 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Alvarez. Still using Openers in key spots

Changes since end of last Month: No changes; the same 5 guys are still making all the “starts” and we still are seeing the likes of PJ Poulin being an Opener here and there.

Rotation Observations: After one bad outing in May, Foster Griffin’s been unhittable for a month: 5 starts, 1.15 ERA, 33/4 K/BB. If we bail on the season, he’s back to being a major trade bait. Speaking of unhittable, Cade Cavalli had his best career start, and one of the better starts in the history of the franchise (non-Max Scherzer category) last night in Boston: 7ip, 1hit, 13 Ks, 0 walks, and one inexplicable sh*t talk to Wilson Contreras that got everyone all riled up. It was enough to really paper over an other wise “meh” month for Cavalli. He’s still holding onto a sub 4.00 ERA for the season. Littell was so good in May, and was right back to being awful in June: 6.10 ERA for the month. Mikolas held it together in June, even if his K/9 rate keeps plummeting (just 15Ks in 34 IP in June). Lastly Alvarez continues to be more than an effective 5th starter: 5 starts, 3.00 ERA even if his WHIP is a little elevated. He continues to show he belongs in a MLB rotation, even if he’s not throwing 95. Alvarez is exactly the kind of low-cost, under the radar starter that can make a team suddenly a play off contender, by giving confident, solid innings from the back of the rotation instead of replacement level production like most 5th starters bring to the table.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April 2026: Mikolas
• May 2026: Irvin (but he got hurt)
• June 2026: Littell but they’ll never cut him and his salary, so i’ll go back to Mikolas

Quick bullpen thoughts: I opined in general about the Philly collapse a week ago. We just got word that Mitchell Parker has a grade-3 strain of his UCL, and likely needs Tommy John surgery. This surgery, combined with his service time and overall struggles, will be presenting the team with a major decision this coming off-season, as is detailed in the MLBtraderumors.com article. He’ll be super-2, but will be basically out all of 2027; do you even tender him a contract? His production this year has been abhorrent out of the bullpen (6.58 ERA) but wasn’t a ton better last year as a starter (5.68 ERA across 33 games/30 starts). You hate to part ways with a home-grown guy, but I see little evidence he can be an effective starter or reliever at this point, and his 40-man spot may be better served by a pending rule5 eligible guy this coming off-season. Maybe we can offer him a MLFA/NRI deal so he can remain in the org and rehab with the only team he’s known, then give him a shot in 2027.

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AAA Rochester

• Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
• End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
• End of May 2026: Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain, Kent
• End of June 2026: Perales, Lara, Champlain, Kent, Penrod as an opener

Changes since end of last Month: Cornelio spent most of the month, including the end of it, in the MLB bullpen and had his “starts” replaced by middle-reliever Zach Penrod, who had four opens in the month. Reinforcements are arriving, as we’ll discuss in the AA promotion section.

Rotation Observations: Perales reverted to form, and continues to remind us that the Bennet-for-Perales trade sucked. 20/11 k/bb in 21 innings and a 6.53 ERA. Maybe we move this guy to the bullpen and see if he can max it out effectively as a late-inning guy? Lara was average: 4.00 era, 1.53 whip, and a .265 BAA. Newly promoted Champlain got a full month’s run-out and was meh: 5.56 ERA, 13 Ks in 22 ip, an a .292 BAA. Jackson Kent’s first full month in AAA went swimmingly: 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA and solid K/BB numbers (28/7 in 24ip). Is it possible that Kent will be the first 2024 class draftee to get to the majors? The only other 2024 draftee to get to AAA thus far is Seaver King, who we’ll certainly talk about in the July 1 prospect post coming up soon.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Alvarez and Cornelio. Verdict: both have been promoted, Alvarez is staying there.
• May: Perales and his sub 2.00 ERA could play in the majors.
• June: Kent the only deserving candidate right now, but he’s not getting promoted anytime soon.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: none really, Champlain had the least investment
• May: Lara clearly.
• June: Back to Champlain, who looks like he may be stuck at a ceiling of effectiveness in AA

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AA Harrisburg

• Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
• End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawara, Kent
• End of May 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Ogasawara, Lyon, Randall (spot starts from Van Scoyoc)
• End of June 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Lyon, Randall, Van Scoyoc

Changes since end of last Month: Ogawawara was released so he could return to Japan, ending our first (?) foray into the Japanese FA market with a thud. He was replaced by promoted long-man/spot starter Van Scoyoc and a slew of openers/bullpen games; 10 different guys had “starts” in June, but we’ll just talk about the ones making the longest stints per night.

Rotation Observations: Clemmey had another mediocre month; 5.53 ERA, too many hits, too many walks. I’m not sure what to do here; is it possible he’s hit a ceiling? At Age 20? Hopefully not. Luckham was actually effective this month; a sub 3.00 ERA and good peripherals pitching behind openers for the most part. Lyon’s ERA was bloated in comparison to his excellent numbers: a 1.02 whip and a .183 BAA; he’s pitching very well for a 2025 draftee in AA. Randall’s first full month in AA was solid; 4 ERA, nearly a 1 whip, .229 BAA, a K/inning; that’s great. Van Scoyoc’s month was so-so, a 3.94 ERA in just 16ip but for some reason was the one they chose to promote up to slot into the rotation spot in AAA. Maybe it was social promotion, in that he’s a 26 MLFA who spent the entirety of 2025 in the AAA bullpen of Colorado.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Ogasawara, then Kent. Kent was promoted over Ogasawara
• May: clearly Ogasawara.
• June: Van Scoyoc (and he was promoted on 7/1). After that it may be time to see if Luckham can make it “third time a charm” in AAA; he had starts there in 2024 and 2025.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Luckham.
• May: still Luckham.
• June: Chemmey

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High-A Wilmington

• Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
• End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
• End of May 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Polanco, Bruni, Meckley
• End of June 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Meckley, Sime, Tepper

Changes since end of last Month: Polanco was dumped out of the rotation when Sime was promoted up. Similarly, Bruni went back to LR/SS duties when Tepper came off the DL officially after a long rehab stint in Low-A.

Rotation Observations: Riley Maddox had another solid month; 3.25 ERA, 1.10 whip, which led to his promotion at the end of the month. If it were me, I probably would have promoted Tejeda, who cleaned up this month: 1.38 ERA and 33/11 K/BB in 22 innings. Meckley struggled badly this month, with 9 Ks and 15BBs in 16ip and a 6.06 ERA. Sime’s first month in High-A was … interesting. 5 starts, 17ip, 2.60 ERA and 27ks in 17ip, so he still is throwing it by people. But, he also has 16 walks in those 17ip, which has bloated his Whip a bit to 1.50. Finally Tepper, back after 6 rehab starts in lower minors, had a solid first month back but is walking too many guys. Interestingly, after finally being relieved of starter duties, Polanco in a long-man role had a decent month; ERA in the 3s, decent peripherals. Maybe he just needs to be an innings eater in the middle of the bullpen.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Randall: he did indeed get promoted
• May: None. Tejeda if I had to name one.
• June: Maddox (Promoted on 7/1), should have been Tejeda.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Polanco
• May: still Polanco but likely Bruni makes way for Sime. (Polanco indeed finally dumped to bullpen)
• June: Meckley

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Low-A Fredericksburg

Low-A spent most of the first 6 weeks of the season doing tandem starts, but as players hit the DL or hit ineffectiveness, we’ve seen the rotation really settle into something more conventional.

• Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
• End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
• End of May 2026: Portorreal, Sime, Johnson, Fischer, and Tepper doing rehab the whole month
• End of June 2026: Portorreal, Johnson, Fischer, Manning, De La Cruz plus rehab starts from Herz, Williams, Tepper.

Changes since end of last Month: Sime was promoted, replaced by De la Cruz. When Tepper’s rehab ended, they put Manning into the starting rotation.

Rotation Observations: Portorreal reverted to his earlier season form and put up an 8 ERA for the month; that’s just not going to cut it, with the huge number of MLFAs pouring into the system that the team may want to try out as starter. Luke Johnson, who the team signed for exactly $2k in 2024 as a 10th round throw away pick, dominated last month to the tune of a 1.86 ERA. Fischer had a solid month, turning 4 starts into a 3.60 ERA and a promotion (like with Maddox above, not sure why it was Fischer to move up and not someone else). Manning struggled in the rotation for the first time, with a 5.60 ERA for the month. Lastly De la Cruz, the first 24IFA arm to get out of rookie ball (Angel Feliz is in High-A, also a 24IFA), had an abhorrent k/bb ratio 10k/18bb in 15Ip but somehow kept his ERA at 2.30 for the month.

Taking a quick peek at some of the guys still doing “tandem” or long relief work at this point in Low-A: Travis Sthele threw a donut this month: 5 games, 16ip, 0 runs. All in “rehab” appearances. Clearly he needs to go back home to High-A.

Lastly, DJ Herz made one rehab start, then got diagnosed with a left flexor strain, so he’s back to being shut down, and who knows now when he’ll be back.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Meckley; indeed he was promoted
• May: Fischer
• June: Fischer, who was actually promoted 7/1. Should be Johnson

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Portorreal: he has turned it around greatly.
• May: Probably Johnson if we had to pick someone; they’ve already settled the tandem starters and demoted guys to the pen
• June: Portorreal

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Rookie FCL

Reminder: The Milb.com FCL site can’t do month splits, so this is kind of running full-season analysis.

• Opening Day 2026: Weaver, Reyes, Martina, De la Cruz, Robles
• End of May 2026: Reyes, De la Cruz, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell
• End of June 2026: Reyes, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell, Gillis, Millikan

Changes since end of last Month: De la Cruz promoted, replaced by Gillis.

Rotation Observations: Reyes continues to hold a respectable 4.09 ERA.as a 21yr old 23IFA. Robles has 20 walks in 24IP and needs to tighten up. Lopez has 17 walks in 21 innings; same story. Bothwell is a 26yr old MLFA with an ERA north of 9.00, but he does have 34 ks in 26ip. Nonetheless, not sure why he’s still rostered after having been demoted from Low-A earlier this year. In Gillis’ two starts; 5 runs on 10 hits. Too early to tell. Lastly we have Millikan, the sole bright spot on the starters: in 5 games and 17IP he has a 0.53 ERA. Time to move up the 23yr old MLFA.

Next guy to get promoted:

• May: Reyes (ended up being De la Cruz)
• June: Millikan

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• May: Robles
• June: Bothwell

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Rookie DSL

Reminder: The Milb.com FCL site can’t do month splits, so this is kind of running full-season analysis.

• Opening Day 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Reynoso, Carela
• End of June 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Carela, Salas

Changes since end of last Month: Reynoso made 3 starts, then hasn’t appeared since 6/19 (but isn’t on the DL). He seems to have been replaced by LR/SS Salas for the time being.

Rotation Observations: The first month of a DSL rotation is always fun, with 17yr olds coming face to face with pro hitters for the first time and sometimes putting up astronomical numbers. Manzueta: 11+ ERA. Medina: 0.96 ERA. Night and day. Sarit’s 6.48 ERA a little inflated when looking at peripherals. Reynoso got shelled for 3 outings then hit the non-DL bench. Carela looks good so far in 4 starts, but it’s just 10 innings. Salas has 4 appearances and 9ip and has struggled so far.

Amongst those also getting longer outings/tandem starts: Jesus Carrasco has a 7.71 ERA in 11ip and Manuel Ruiz has a 5.23 IP in 10innings. Everyone else in the DSL seems to be more in the 1-2 IP/appearance range right now.

In the bullpen, Rafael Mejas gave up 0 runs in 7 middle relief innings for a good start.

On the other end of the spectrum, here’s a line for you: Aldemaro Sevilla, signed in January, had 4 apperances, threw 6 2/3 innings. In those 4 games, he gave up 14 runs on 8 hits and 14 walks. That’s a 17.55 ERA and a 3.30 whip.

Next guy to get promoted:

• June: Medina

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• June: Manzueta

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That’s it for June 2026.