2026 June at Nationals Arm Race

Archive for June, 2026

2-way prep star Jared Gringlinger is settling in on multiple mocks to the Nats at #11. Photo via BA

Each year we have basically three categories of mock drafts and Draft Board Ranks:

The way too early drafts, which are done any time in 2025 for the 2026 draft all the way to those done within the first couple of months of the spring season. I reviewed the Phase 1 version of mocks about a month ago.
The “starting to get down to business” mock drafts, which start to really look at those who are rising and falling due to 2026 performance, those who have had injury issues, plus those who have clarified their “going to school” status.
The “week leading up to the draft” Mocks where the major pundits are working the phones to get for-real intel into who the teams are looking at, and sometimes we get mocks the day of that nearly nail the top 10.

We’re now well into Phase 2; that is this analysis. In fact, there’s been so many i’m publishing now and may do another version of this as more mocks come in the rest of the month.

Macro Draft Class statements: the pundits are reporting:

The top of the draft is weaker than in year’s past
Class Strengths include College bats, Prep Pitching for depth.
Weaknesses seem to be prep bats after the top 3-4 names, college arms this year for sure.

So, let’s get to it. For each Mock i’ll list the top 5 names plus who they project to the Nats at #11 with some commentary. I’ll spell out player names the first time they’re used, then just use last names going forward. Also, I’m adding more commentary to each mock in this section, and will identify names who the Nats would purposely be skipping in each mock who I think they’d give serious thought to taking.

Keith Law Mock 1.0 5/7/26: Grady Emerson (prep SS, Texas HS), Roch Cholowsky (SS UCLA), Vahn Lackey (C Georgia Tech), Jackson Flora (RHP UC Santa Barbara), Eric Booth Jr (prep OF, Miss HS). Nats at #11 take Chris Hacopian, SS/3B from Texas A&M (and thus leaving Peterson, Bell, and Lebron on the table). Law is the first mock drafter who does NOT have Cholowsky going 1-1 in this cycle, and freely admits that the team drafting 1st overall (the White Sox) may be sending smoke signals to the Cholowsky camp to tamper down bonus demands. I think they’d be fools not to take the UCLA shortstop, who entered the season the consensus 1-1 candidate and has done absolutely nothing but produce and keep that reputation. Meanwhile, as I’ve mentioned in prior posts there’s a big “gap” in prep prospects right in the section where the Nats draft, which really makes it seem like we’ll be drafting a college bat.
Jim Callis MLBpipeline First Officiail Mock 5/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Jacob Lombard (prep SS , Florida HS), Flora. Nats at #11 take Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS. This would be a shock overdraft, as he’s ranked well outside the 1st round on draft boards right now. In this mock, picking Gridlinger would leave in particular Curiel on the table, but also the likes of Hacopian, Flukey, Bell, etc. Grindlinger reclassified from 2027, so he’d be super young like Willits, but may also go under-slot which would allow for more over-slot prep draftees in rounds 2-5.
Baseball America Mock Draft 3.0 5/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 take Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech. Burress has been in the top 10 of this draft since the beginning of the cycle, and BA has mocked Burress to the Nats now a couple of times with these exercises. In this mock, the Nats would be passing on the likes of Bell, Curiel, Gridlinger, Lebron, etc. But, BA has some of these players now in the 20s, implying that a 6.1M slot value would sign for something 33% less 10 picks later. Players like Peterson and Reese, who have been mocked to the Nats earlier in this cycle, are now nearly out of the 1st round.
Keith Law Draft Ranks 5/14/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Flora, Bell, Emerson. As Law notes immediately in the write-up, this is a rank, not a mock. He’s got Bell in particular in the top 4, but i’ve seen mocks with Bell going in the 20s. That’d be such an amazing steal for that team if indeed Bell is this good. He also ranks Lombard (regularly in the top 5 on these mocks) way way down at #17, so I can imagine what he thinks of a team popping him that early. Some of the names associated with the Nats at #11 are deep into the 20s on this list (Hacopian, Gracia), while others are much higher (Burress in particular).
Espn/Kiley McDaniel Mock Draft 1.0 5/14/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 take Grindlinger, same as the MLBpipeline mock above. McDaniel reports that the consensus decision at 1-1 is now nearly a 50/50 proposition with Emerson rising fast. Grindlinger is reported as a two-way player, better on the hit side but still promising on the arm side (as a pitcher-only prospect he’s a comp-to-early 2nd rounder). In this scenario, the Nats would be passing on Peterson, Curiel, Lebron.
ESPN/Kiley McDaniel top 150 Draft Ranks 5/17/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. #11 is Grindlinger as it turns out. McDaniel’s draft board isn’t entirely in sync with his recent mock draft, showing Lombard out of the top 5, which is consistent with many of the draft rankings despite is frequent placement in the top 5. His rank exposes one of the big disagreements between pundits: where to rank Tyler Bell? McDaniel ranks him #29 while Law ranks him #4. That’s a really, really wide gap.
Jonathan Mayo/MLBpipeline 5/21/26 Mock: Cholowsky, Emerson, Flora, Lombard, Lackey. #11 Nats take Justin Lebron, SS from Alabama. Lebron has been “polarizing” this season b/c he started the mock draft season as an easy top 5 pick but has struggled this season, badly. As of the beginning of SEC play he’s only slashing .266/.384/.522. I say “only” since he’s got 14 homers … and 38/39 SBs. He wasn’t on a bunch of pre-season AA lists for nothing. Question is: what’s his true hit tool? .266 this year or his .314 last year? In this scenario Nats would leave players like Peterson, Curiel, Gracia, Gridlinger, and Bell on the board, all names we’ve seen them associated with in prior mocks. This really highlights to me just how wide open this area of the draft is this year.
Dan Zielinski III from Baseball Prospect Journal released his Mock 1.0 on 5/23/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Basically the same top 5 as most everyone else at this point. He’s got Nats at #11 on Gridlinger, though he’s have us skip over in particular Cameron Flukey, the Coastal Carolina #1 starter who is probably the 2nd best arm on the board. I know you don’t draft for Need … but do we “need” yet another prep SS? Maybe its time to infuse more pitching into the system, since every one of our prospect stars this season seems to be a hitter.
Baseball America Top 500 Draft Board 5/27/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. #11 ranked is divisive Kentucky SS Tyler Bell. Bell projects as a well rounded SS who can play all over the dirt in a pinch, with solid marks for all five tools but no 60s or 70s anywhere. He was a 2nd rounder out of HS, went to college, and now projects as a mid 1st rounder. He hurt his shoulder in the first week of the season and played through it a bit, which has hampered his draft stock/stats, something to think about from a value perspective. Bell at #11 could be a solid pick.
Baseball Prospectus Draft board 5/28/26: entirely behind a paywall. If anyone has an account let me know.
ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Mock 2.0 5/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Same 5 as the last few mocks, in slightly different order. He puts the Nats on Gridlinger, like a few others, saying “Grindlinger has been tied to this spot for a while.” In this scenario Burress is long gone, but the Nats take the prep SS over the likes of Hacopian, Bell, Flukey, Lebron.
MLBPipeline Top 200 Draft Prospects 5/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. #11 ranked player is Coastal Carolina’s ace Cameron Flukey, though as we know player ranks tend to fluctuate with day in and day out performance. If Flukey dominates in the CWS regional (CCU is an underdog in their regional) we could see him pop up a bit.
Jonathan Mayo Industry survey 6/1/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora again. We’re definitely starting to see some consistency here. This wasn’t a ranking, but more of a survey.
D1Baseball Top 250 draft board 6/4/26: Lackey, Cholowsky, Flora, Hacopian, Bell. D1’s list is only D1 players, no Prep players, and is weird in that they have Lackey over Cholowsky, basically the only service that does so. I also think they have some players too high/too low in comparison to others.
Post-D1 regional MLBPipeline mock 6/5/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Same top 5 as everyone. He’s got Nats on Gridlinger once again, but says that if Burress or Hacopian are available they could go here. In this scenario, the Nats leave Flukey, Curiel, Reese, Bell, and Lebron on the table.
Baseball America published a Top 500 Prep-only list 6/5/26: that’s just a crazy amount of analysis, even given the modern day of travel teams and showcases for these kids. 500 prep kids ranked. The top 5 prep kids go as expected: Emerson, Lombard, Booth, Rojas, and Nats favorite Grindlinger. There’s a smattering of Virginia-based kids, not a ton as this seems to be a pretty down year for prep kids in the state.
Baseball America’s Mock 4.0 6/8/26: Cholowosky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Again, same top 5 names. Nats at #11 once again projected to Grindlinger. In this mock, they’d leave Lebron, Reese, Hacopian on the list. I wonder if Hacopian would tempt them.

Conclusion: most of these mocks have the same 4-5 names within the top 5 picks.

Cholowsky: has been 1-1 on practically every mock draft
Emerson: nearly always in the top 2
Lackey: seems to be consistently the next player taken after Cholowsky/Emerson are done.
Lombard and Flora are the two names that most frequently round out the top 5, albeit sometimes with interlopers.

Names most frequently mocked to Nats at this point: Grindlinger, Hacopian, Burress, though in later mocks Burress is mostly gone by the time Nats pick at #11.

Written by Todd Boss

June 9th, 2026 at 10:05 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

2026 CWS Coverage – Regional Recap and Super Regional Preview

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The busiest weekend in College Baseball has past; here’s a run down of the opening weekend of the College Baseball playoffs. There were a TON of upsets, including a historic one, and a lot of great games to recap.

Resource links to help with this:

Your final top 25 heading into the post-season according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings are a very important part of the seeding and selection process, as we’ll discuss in a bit.
Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 Bracket with some great data points at NCAA.com

Here are Quick Regional Recaps of the 16 regional action, ordered by National Seed super Regional matchup. that means, the pairs of regionals being reviewed (#1 UCLA regional and #16 West Virginia regional) will determine that Super Regional. The eventual winning team is bolded.

#1 UCLA regional: an absolute stunner as the top seed not only loses its first round, but for just the 3rd time in my memory fails to advance out of its own regional. They didn’t even get to the regional final! St. Marys beats them twice to eliminate the nation’s only team ranked #1 all year, but then the Gaels couldn’t take out #3 seed Cal Poly, who shocks the field and advances to the super regional. Pundits say this says a ton about Big 10 baseball and how weak it is. That may be fair. UCLA still endeavored to play a tough non-conference schedule (they were #28 in SoS so it’s not like they played a bunch of weaklings). But they came up short.
#16 West Virginia regional: this was one of those regionals you’ll remember for a while. #3 seed Kentucky was in the driver’s seat, but host WVA scored 5 in the 9th late on Sunday to force the winner-take-all game Monday, then walked it off in the bottom of the 10th. Afterwards, the entire crowd sang John Denver’s Country road in unison along with their team, a video that gave me chills. I tell you what, it doesn’t get any better than this. West Virginia moves on, somehow.
#8 Florida Regional: baseball powerhouse Florida was in full control of this regional … until they weren’t. Troy, one of the last teams into the tournament and one that many thought should have been left out for (In particular) Mercer, beat Florida on their home field twice in the final to head to the super as a #3 seed. Troy beat Florida 16-11 and then 10-2, results that are going to have Fla’s coach looking for pitching in the transfer portal for sure.
#9: Southern Miss regional: Southern Miss hosted, but they didn’t show up, going two-and-out. UVA was eliminated by powerhouse Jacksonville State (kidding), and the region’s #4 seed Arkansas Little Rock advanced to the super regional.
#5; UNC regional: North Carolina cruised to the regional title without really being pressed, beating ECU twice. VCU impressed with a win over Tennessee, but otherwise this was a simple region.
#12: TAMU regional: Texas A&M was in the driver’s seat, then suddenly Southern California couldn’t make an out. USC, after losing its first game 5-4, won by the following scores in order: 19-6, 15-4, 14-3, and 7-1, the last two beatings over host TAMU to advance. USC was an RPI anomaly heading into the event, with a top 10 RPI but just a 1-11 record against Q1 schools. Well, they’re 3-11 now, and I wouldn’t want to face this offense. Phew.
#13 Nebraska regional: to little surprise, the over-seeded Nebraska team fell to both baseball powerhouses in ASU and eventually winner Ole Miss, who cruised to the regional title.
#4: Auburn regional: All credit to Milwaukee, who beat Auburn to open the region and made them beat them two more times before falling. #4 National seed Auburn survives somehow and advances.

And, the eventual CWS Bottom Half:

#3 Georgia cruised to the regional title, giving up just five runs in three games. They are as advertised, and are now the CWS title favorites.
#14 Mississippi State scored 39 runs in three games, blasting their way to the super regional.
#11 Oregon got to beat a couple of their old Pac-10 teammates en route to the regional title.
#6 Texas advanced in their own regional without having to deal with UCSB ace Jackson Flora, who they indeed saved for an anticipated winner’s bracket game two. Unfortunately, UCSB’s pitchers not named Flora pooped the bed against little-known Tarlton State and thus Flora was wasted on hapless Holy Cross, who he crushed for his final collegiate start. Quick: can you name where Tarlton State is, or what conference they play in?
#7 Alabama wasn’t too troubled in its regional win, beating all three of its opponents on the way to the title.
#10 Florida State hosted a crazy regional where the two lower seeds both won on opening day. Coastal Carolina had saved their ace Cameron Flukey for game 2, but a huge weather delay cut short his outing to just 3 1/3, wasting his final college start. FSU survived, but couldn’t overcome St. Johns of all teams, who wins as a #4 seed.
#15 Kansas. Bravo to Kansas, who nearly everyone thought would lose to Arkansas in this regional. Instead, Kansas beat them twice to move on.
#2 Georgia Tech scored 22 in its opener and topped #2 seed Oklahoma to take over the regional, but the Sooners had other plans, beating them late Sunday and then getting a walk-off homer in the bottom of the 10th to eliminate the #2 overall seed. Here’s the video; its at the 4:30 mark. He pulverized it to straight away cf, 390 and a 20 foot fence. Phew.

Thus, your Super Regionals are (with the presumed host listed first):

#16 West Virginia v Cal Poly
Troy v Arkansas Little Rock: one of these two teams will be in Omaha. Amazing.
#5 North Carolina v Southern California
#4 Auburn vs Ole Miss
#3 Georgia vs #14 Mississippi State
#6 Texas vs #11 Oregon
#7 Alabama vs St. Johns
#15 Kansas vs Oklahoma

Stats/Observations of the 16 regionals.

9 out of 16: Seeds/Hosts to advance, but the two top seeds (UCLA and Georgia Tech) are out.
6 regionals went to Monday extra game; lots of close regionals this year.
Conference Breakdown of the 16 advancers:
- SEC: 7 advancing (12 made the tourney)
- Big12: 2 advancing (West Virginia, Kansas)
- Big10: 2 advancing (Oregon and USC, both former Pac12)
- ACC: Just 1 UNC (of the 9 teams that made the tourney, a pretty awful showing)
- One each from Sun Belt, Big West, Ohio Valley, and Big East.
Seed breakdown of advances
- #1 seeds/hosts: 9
- #2 Seeds: 3 (Southern California, Ole Miss, Oklahoma)
- #3 Seeds: 2 (Cal Poly and Troy)
- #4 Seeds: 2 (Arkansas-Little Rock, St. Johns)

Super Regional Prospect Watch. Man, lots of top prospects are gone, many surprisingly so. In fact, there’s only one name here that’s even projected to be a top 15 pick; Alabama’s Lebron. So, not a lot of star power in the supers.

West Virginia v Cal Poly
Troy v Arkansas Little Rock
North Carolina v Southern California
Auburn vs Ole Miss: Auburn is led by 2B Chris Rembert, a late 1st rounder, while Ole Miss’ ace is Cade Townsend, also a late 1st rounder.
Georgia vs Mississippi State: Miss State’s Ace Reese is a late 1st round 3B prospect.
Texas vs Oregon
Alabama vs St. Johns: Alabama’s SS and leading hitter is Justin Lebron
Kansas vs Oklahoma

Super Regional predictions: Here’s what i think happens when these Regional champs meetup next weekend:

#16 West Virginia v Cal Poly; hard to see WVA losing.
Troy v Arkansas Little Rock: Troy is the better team, by far.
#5 North Carolina v Southern California: I’d like to think UNC can hold the line, but USC impressed.
#4 Auburn vs Ole Miss: they did not face each other in SEC play, but Auburn is the better team.
#3 Georgia vs #14 Mississippi State: Georgia swept Miss State on their field in conference play, beat them in the SEC tournament, and I see no reason to think they’ll lose this Super Regional. I think its safe to say that Georgia was the CWS favorite at the beginning of this tournament, given that they’re the best team in the best conference, but now without UCLA and Georgia Tech they’re easily the team to beat.
#6 Texas vs #11 Oregon; I favor the SEC team here, even if Oregon is good.
#7 Alabama vs St. Johns; this one may get ugly.
#15 Kansas vs Oklahoma; Kansas has been surprising teams all year, even if Oklahoma is more battle tested. I’ll go with OK.

Predicted CWS field: West Virginia, Troy, UNC, Auburn, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma

Written by Todd Boss

June 5th, 2026 at 8:21 am

Posted in College/CWS

May 2026 Temperature Check with Top Prospects

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Devin Fitz-Gerald is blasting his way up the system. Photo via Federal Baseball/Getty Images

Before we get too far away from June 1st … Here’s a monthly check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system. Stats are for just May 2026 unless otherwise noted.

I’ll be using my own personal top 20 to drive the rankings, the ones I posted right after the season started so they don’t take into account fast starts from players like Fitz-Gerald or Cruz.

All the stats links I use are at my Nats Links page, which I visit every day for various reasons. I won’t repeat all the stats links and transactions pages and what not; just go to the Links page.

#1. Eli Willits SS, Low-A: Slashed .342/.457/.526 for May, with 2 homers, 10sb. Yeah, that’ll do. That’s not bad for a kid who should be getting measured for his HS cap and gown right now. This team is not shy about promoting players; how long does he stay in Low-A? Temperature: red hot, imminent promotion candidate.
#2. Henry Ford, C AAA: He is still not hitting. He was off in April, and May wasn’t much better. .234/.372/.344. that’s not a ton of power, even for a catcher. Luckily Kiebert Ruiz has “remembered” how to hit at the MLB level so there’s not a ton of pressure. One has to wonder what the heck is going on here? We’re talking a significant prospect, well regarded across the industry. I wonder if he’s got a knock we don’t know about. Temperature: pretty cold
#3: Jarlin Susana, RHP (starter) AA: On the 60-day DL to open the season, and is still there. Per the Nats injury report, the last update was 5/5 a month ago and he was “continuing his throwing progression” in Palm Beach. His return has now just been listed as “2026,” which could mean tomorrow or September. I don’t think anyone though this was a season long injury, and the loss of both Susana and Sykora for an entire season really is putting this franchise back. Temperature: on ice.
#4 Travis Sykora: RHP (starter) AA: likely out for the season, the injury report lists his return as 2027. Temperature: on ice.
#5 Gavin Fien SS/3B, Low-A: he made it back off the DL, still not entirely sure what the injury was, but he’s been really struggling. .180/.305/.280 for May. I wonder if he came back too soon from injury. Temperature: ice cold.
#6 Alex Clemmey, LHP (Starter) AA: Clemmey continues to struggle in AA; 5.26 ERA this month, 15 walks in 22 innings. I’m not sure what to do here; he has nothing to prove in High-A; he’s just got to ride it out here. Temperature: pretty cold.
#7 Seaver King, SS AAA: King continued his torrid start to the season, slashing .415/.475/.604 the first half of the month in AA before forcing the promotion. So far in AAA? .325/.378/.525. He also played at 2B recently (not that a SS can’t seamlessly move to 2B anyway, but still a notable signal) possibly indicating the team is thinking of bringing him up to play there instead of the Mendoza-line hitting Nunez.. Temperature: red hot; player of the year candidate.
#8 Luis Perales, RHP (starter) AAA: Perales, who is the sole remaining 40-man arm from opening day who hasn’t pitched in the majors, was stellar this month: 1.53 ERA in 4 games. but, he’s still not pitching that many innings: 17ip in 4appearances. Also, if he throws 101, where are the Ks?? 11 Ks in 17 ip? Nonetheless, its improvement. Still, the Nats are “losing” this trade right now. Temperature: warming up nicely.
#9 Devin Fitz-Gerald, 2B/SS, High-A: he’s blowing up High-A; .287/.368/.634 for the month of May with 9 homers. He has a higher OPS than Petry. He’s playing about 50% at 2B, 25% at SS, and 25% at 3B. He’s a little undersized so it seems like 2B may be his destination, but with this kind of power I’ll take it. Temperature: Red Hot, POTY candidate.
#10 Landon Harmon, RHP (starter): Low-A: He hasn’t pitched since April 24th, hit the 7-day DL in early May and has sat there. It’s reportedly an oblique injury and is “not serious” but its been a while. At least its not a shoulder/elbow. Temperature: On Ice
#11 Ronny Cruz: SS High-A, Cruz blasted his way to High-A early … and has seen the league catch up to him in a big way. May slash line: .141/.200/.196. Was it too much, too soon? Could be. Temperature: Ice cold
#12 Luke Dickerson, SS/CF Low-A: came back to earth this month after a nice April. Slashed: .185/.368/.310. Lots of walks and strikeouts, not much else. If you’re going to whiff at this rate, you need to hit a ton of bombs. Temperature: pretty cold.
#13: Ethan Petry, 1B High-A: Petry spent another month in High-A crushing the ball: .288/.355/.606. I just have to ask: why is he still in High-A? The guy playing 1B for Harrisburg (Sam Brown) is hitting .228 with almost no power, so it’s not like he’s blocked. This is a 2nd rounder from a major college program; it shouldn’t be long before he’s up. Temperature: Red hot still.
#14: Coy James, SS/3B, Low-A: Improved slightly at the plate, still not playing how we want. .229/.339/.396for the month. He has shown his fielding versatility though, hitting 4 positions so far this year (2B,SS,3B,LF). Temperature: still cold.
#15: Angel Felix, SS High-A: May numbers improved slightly over April: .250/.337/.375. However the new knock is his defense: he’s made 9 errors in his 18 games played at 3B so far this season. That’s not good. Temperature: cool.
#16: Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (starter) High-A: He was adequate in May with a pedestrian 4.34 ERA and more Ks than IP. But nothing special. Temperature: luke warm.
#17: Jackson Kent, LHP (Starter) AAA: Kent blitzed through his first 3 AA starts in May, and earned a promotion to AAA. His first two AAA starts were a struggle, but his achieving AAA as a 2024 draftee is impressive. Temperature: Hot to earn the promotion.
#18: Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (starter): High-A: Sime had an ugly era/whip in Low-A for the month but continued to strike out 2 guys an inning, so the team promoted him. As discussed extensively in the comments, If you can just throw it past everyone at the level you’re never going to develop alternate pitches. Temperature: hot.
#19: Davian Garcia, RHP (starter) AA; Garcia was placed directly on the “Full Season” injured list on 5/29, with no passing through either the 7-day or 60-day. That’s not good, and indicates a serious arm injury. No word anywhere on what happened to him, even with AI scouring the internet for clues. Temperature: on ice.
#20: Yeremy Cabrera CF High-A: Started May in Low-A with this ridiculous line: .483/.564/.897 and earned a promotion. In High-A so far? Not as great: 236/.323/.309. Hopefully he adjusts to th e level and returns to form. Temperature: hot.

Notables #20 and above by level:

in AAA:

#27 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B continues to destroy AAA pitching: May slashline: .361/.431/.691. We’ve talked about him extensively. My take is simple: the “scouting reports” we’re getting on him make no sense, and you can’t leave someone in AAA who’s OPS is north of 1,100 forever.
#33 Albimec Ortiz 1B/DH in AAA had an even bigger may OPS figure than Morales. We’ve struggled to score runs for years, now suddenly a bunch of randoms in the majors are leading the league in runs scored while guys are finally hitting in AAA. A weird season.

In AA:

#21 Sam Peterson is putting it together; in May: .297/.390/.554.
#30 Cayden Wallace continues to produce. May: .275/.333/.505

In High-A:

#40 Kevin Bazzell blasted the ball this month: .378/.472/.511 with 5 homers in 14 games played.
Elijah Green cut down on his K’s this month! Just 41 Ks in 25 games. (In april it was 52 Ks in 21 games).

In Low-A:

#39 Rafael Ramirez Jr had a nice month. .323/.500/.508. I’ll take that from a SS.
Unranked Jack Moroknek put up another good month; .293/.397/.586. Second straight month mentioning him.

In FCL:

#47 Victor Hurtado, known more for his bonus figure than his production, had a nice month. .293/.397/
.586

Written by Todd Boss

June 4th, 2026 at 9:34 am

Posted in Prospects

Nats Rotation End of May 2026 check-in

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Jackson Kent now in AAA. Photo via University of Arizona

Here’s the May 2026 check-in on rotations. In the interest of time, which I’m pressed for this month badly, I’ll skip the bullpen comments and just focus on starters this post.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, etc.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

Big Board, Draft Tracker, and IFA Tracker
Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com, Nats MLB stats at fangraphs.com
AAA Rochester stats at milb.com. AAA Rochester Stats at fangraphs.com
AA Harrisburg stats at milb.com, AA Harrisburg Stats at fangraphs.com
High-A Wilmington stats at milb.com, High-A Wilmington Stats at fangraphs.com
Low-A Fredericksburg Stats at milb.com, Low-A Fredericksburg stats at fangraphs.com
FCL Nationals Stats at milb.com
DSL Nationals Pitching Stats at milb.com

All Stats quoted are as of 5/31/26’s games.

We’ll start with the Majors.

Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
End of May 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (still with openers), Littell (also with openers), Alvarez.

Changes since end of last Month: Irvin suffered a right shoulder strain while pitching his best game of the season (of course he did), and hit the DL. Though reported as mild, per the injury report he’s yet to resume any throwing and is just doing strength and conditioning stuff. Alvarez took his spot (as opposed to other options like Parker or Cornelio or Lord) and has continued to be decent.

Rotation Observations: Griffen’s numbers came back to earth thanks to one horrid outing. He’s still got decent looking ERA and WHIP, but a troubling 4.88 FIP that makes me wonder if we’re not going to see more regression to the mean. Cavalli really bore down in May, cutting his walk rate in half and thus his WHIP from 1.6 to 1.1. Love it. Despite Irvin’s excellent start where he got hurt, he had a rough month. Mikolas was actually decent in May; a 3.52 ERA in his five “starts.” Even though he got hit around in his first June appearance. Lastly Littell was actually our best pitcher in May; pitching to a 2.35 ERA in 6 games/30IP. Amazing given what he did in April.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

April 2026: Mikolas
May 2026: Probably Irvin before he got hurt. Now it’s likely Alvarez who makes way unless he starts throwing nothing but shutout innings. Mikolas has stayed his execution.

AAA Rochester

Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
End of May 2026: Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain, Kent

Changes since end of last Month: Alvarez called up to cover for Irvin. That spot was filled by the promotion of Jackson Kent. Just a comment here: Kent was a 2024 4th rounder who signed for under slot and who has almost no prospect buzz; now he’s in AAA.

Rotation Observations: Perales, who is the sole remaining 40-man arm from opening day who hasn’t pitched in the majors, was stellar this month: 1.53 ERA in 4 games. He’s still not pitching that many innings: 17ip in 4appearances. Also, if he throws 101, where are the Ks?? 11 Ks in 17 ip? Weird. Champlain isn’t getting a ton of K/9 but he is effective: 3.45 ERA for the month for the late spring training MLFA signing. Cornelio & Alvarez’s numbers weren’t great this month, but they’ve also been on the commuter shuttle back and forth, a lot. Lastly we have Lara, who was outrighted and was out of the rotation for a while, and now we remember why. 7.85 ERA for the month in 6 starts and it seems like he should go back to the bullpen.

Next guy to get promoted:

April: Alvarez and Cornelio. Verdict: both have been promoted, Alvarez is staying there.
May: Perales and his sub 2.00 ERA could play in the majors.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

April: none really, Champlain had the least investment
May: Lara clearly.

AA Harrisburg

Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
Reminder of the AA Disabled List: Sykora, Susana, Rosario, Stuart, Swan, now Garcia
End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawara, Kent
End of May 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Ogasawara, Lyon, Randall (spot starts from Van Scoyoc)

Changes since end of last Month: Kent got promoted, replaced by newly promoted Lyon. Then, Garcia hit the DL and was replaced by newly promoted Randall.

Rotation Observations: Ogasawara had another solid month with a 2.31 era, and it’s kind of dumb why the team is keeping a 28yr old veteran IFA in AA. Clemmey continues to struggle in AA; 5.26 ERA this month, 15 walks in 22 innings. I’m not sure what to do here; he has nothing to prove in High-A; he’s just got to ride it out here. Luckham continues to confound how he retains his rotation job; 6.31 ERA for the month. Lyon has struggled in his two AA starts since promotion, while Randall’s AA debut was stellar (5ip 2H 0 runs). Lastly, Long Man/spot starter Van Scoyo had a solid month: 23/2 K/BB in 23IP, a 3.80 ERA.

Next guy to get promoted:

April: Ogasawara, then Kent. Kent was promoted over Ogasawara
May: clearly Ogasawara.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

April: Luckham.
May: still Luckham.

High-A Wilmington

Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
End of May 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Polanco, Bruni, Meckley

Changes since end of last Month: Randall and Lyon were promoted, replaced by LR/SS Bruni and newly promoted Meckley

Rotation Observations: It was mostly a rough month for the starters in Wilmington. Lyon had the best stats and got promoted for it, but the rest? phew. Tejeda was the best of the rest with a pedestrian 4.34 ERA and more Ks than IP. Maddox and Meckley both had ERAs right around 5. Bruni and Polanco? They’re in the 7s. It’s no wonder the system promoted Miguel Sime Jr just after the month ended.

Next guy to get promoted:

April: Randall: he did indeed get promoted
May: None. Tejeda if I had to name one.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

April: Polanco
May: still Polanco but likely Bruni makes way for Sime.

Low-A Fredericksburg

Low-A spent most of the first 6 weeks of the season doing tandem starts, but as players hit the DL or hit ineffectiveness, we’ve seen the rotation really settle into something more conventional.

Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
End of May 2026: Portorreal, Sime, Johnson, Fischer, and Tepper doing rehab the whole month

Changes since end of last Month: Meckley promoted, Hughes struggled so they’re both out from April. The Sime/Johnson tandem was the split up. Harmon hit the 7-day DL with a non-serious Oblique injury, but Conradt was put on the full-season DL with a very serious injury. Lastly Tepper made 4 rehab starts in Low-A this month, enough so that he was basically on the team. Minor league rehab sessions can be up to 30 days for pitchers, so he’s got a few more days as of this writing before heading back to High-A. The team just promoted De la Cruz from the FCL; he may take Tepper’s spot.

Rotation Observations: Fischer, a 2025NDFA from UMiami, is dominating; 0.90 ERA, 0.90 whip in 6 May starts. Portorreal turned things around in a big way, even if he’s only doing 2-3 IP/start. Sime had an ugly era/whip but continued to strike out 2 guys an inning, so the team promoted him. Frankly, I don’t think he’s ready for the next level, not when he’s walking more than a guy an inning, but the fastball plays. Luke Johnson: 3.12 ERA but too many baserunners. He’s too hittable (.304 BAA). Tepper’s 4 rehab starts were stellar as expected.

Taking a quick peek at some of the guys still doing “tandem” longer relief sessions: Manning had 7 games/15IP, and a 20/2 K/BB. That’ll work. Sullivan had 2 starts and 6 appearances with a middling 4.86 ERA.

Next guy to get promoted:

April: Meckley; indeed he was promoted
May: Fischer

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

April: Portorreal: he has turned it around greatly.
May: Probably Johnson if we had to pick someone; they’ve already settled the tandem starters and demoted guys to the pen

Rookie FCL

Reminder: FCL guys are basically throwing 2-3 IP stints, so a month’s of work is usually 12-14 IP. This is small sample size analysis.

Opening Day 2026: Weaver, Reyes, Martina, De la Cruz, Robles
End of May 2026: Reyes, De la Cruz, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell,

Changes since end of last Month: Martina got a start the first week, but likely is hurt (hasn’t thrown since 5/11). The team added Bothwell into the mix so we show a 6-man “rotation” right now that has these guys mostly stacked up for tandem starts. Weaver made one start and hasn’t pitched since May 8th; not a good sign.

Rotation Observations: De la Cruz had a 0.75 ERA in 6 games and got promoted. Reyes looks promising: .122 BAA but a few too many walks. Lopez, Bothwell, and Reyes all have decent looking ERAs in the 3s and decent peripherals.

Next guy to get promoted:

May: Reyes

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

May: Robles

Note: the DSL just started its league on 6/1, so we don’t know their rotation yet. We’ll cover that on July 1.

That’s it for April 2026.

Written by Todd Boss

June 3rd, 2026 at 12:08 pm

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching,Prospects

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