It could have been worse; it could have been this. Photo credit unknown.
Its been a greek tragedy the last few days in Nats town. Stephen Strasburg (you know, that guy who we just paid $175M for the next 30 years with deferred payments) clutches his elbow in his first game back after hitting the D/L for a different “elbow soreness” issue. Nats town fears the worst. MRI comes back and its “just” a Flexor Mass Strain. They say it isn’t going to be season ending but…
But we have some rather recent and close-to-home examples to use to gauge his D/L time out:
- Mat Latos was diagnosed with the same injury in Mid April 2014 and missed exactly 2 months of that season.
- Homer Bailey had a more severe case of the same in August 2014, had to have surgery and was back in time for the beginning of 2015 (where he subsequently had a different injury).
- Jonathan Broxton had an even more severe “torn” flexor mass in August 2013, had surgery and was out 6 months.
- (h/t to Nationals101 on Twitter): Andrew Miller, who strained it in June 2015 against the Nats and missed about a month (injury on 6/10/15, next appearance 7/8/15).
So, best case he takes a couple of week off, it magically feels better, we shoot him up with cortisone and toradol (Hey they’re both legal!) and run merrily into the NLDS (not likely).
Worst case, he has to have a surgical procedure to clean stuff up and he’s ready for April 2017.
Most likely case, the conservative Nats management team shuts him down for the season (he is after all due $175M … and it’d be kind of foolish to risk that kind of investment for one playoff appearance) since it seems like its at least a month of rest.
In the mean time, the Nats have a playoff series to plan for. Now what do we do?
- Scherzer, Roark, Gonzalez are all healthy and ready to go.
Who is the 4th starter? Instead of arguing about whether we take Joe Ross or Gio Gonzalez, are we now asking ourselves who makes that 4th start? Do we think Joe Ross is going to be ready? I dunno; I certainly hope so but we’re out of minor league games for him to rehab in and I havn’t heard much about his progress. Assuming Ross isn’t ready to go either … Are we to the point where we’re wondering who is better, Yusmeiro Petit, A.J. Cole, Reynaldo Lopez or Lucas Giolito?
Pros/Cons of these options:
- Petit: was brought in to be the spot starter so he should be able to handle this. But he’s been a bit shakey lately; his ERA has risen from 2.72 to 3.90 in just his last 8 appearances, which include a 5 run implosion against Colorado to blow a game the Nats had come back to tie late, an appearance in early August against Atlanta where he couldn’t record an out, and a bunch of other unclean appearances.
- Cole: he has shown signs of life (looking awesome in New York against our closest rival) and then signs of ineptitude (giving up a 3-run homer to the only guy on the Phillies who could hurt him).
- Lopez: great fastball … and great hittability.
- Giolito: well, we don’t need to go into the pro- and anti-Giolito arguments, do we?
I dunno; who among that list are you thinking is best suited for it?
Are you thinking outside the box instead? Mat Latos? I dunno; do you think he’s ready to go? Would you think that to be a slap in the face of all the guys who busted their butts with this organization for years to have a post-season start opportunity given to a guy they signed off the street two months ago?
Me? I think you give the start to Lopez. I don’t trust Petit, Cole seems too hittable, and Giolito needs an off-season to get his mechanics (and his head) straight.
(post-publishing update; just saw this at NJ: we know it isn’t going to be Bronson Arroyo… who just couldn’t come back and likely faces the end of his career).
I think it’s pretty much an open audition between Latos, Cole and Lopez. I think they are all going to get starts and time on the mound over the last 3+ weeks to show where their stuff and demeanor is at.
John C.
9 Sep 16 at 2:21 pm
Nice post, Todd, and I think Lopez and Cole are auditioning. Why not audition Voth as well? If the Nats DFA Martin, they’ll still retain him.
forensicane
9 Sep 16 at 3:27 pm
The other “problem” with this equation is that as things stand, the Nats would open the playoffs with two games at home. Generally speaking, that’s a good thing, but in this particular case, having the two bulldogs of Scherzer and Roark for the road starts would be much preferable to Gio/Ross/X. But of course you’re going to start your best pitchers at the beginning of the series no matter where you play, trying to get ahead.
I haven’t seen enough of Latos in his Nats incarnation yet to have an opinion. Cole had some good moments last night before a couple of Max-like oops moments that blew up the whole night. Right now, I’d have Latos and Cole as more the two front-runners and Lopez and Giolito needing to show much better to get into consideration.
Prediction #1: Stras won’t be back until the second round of the playoffs, if he makes it back.
Prediction #2: If the Nats are down 2-1 going into the fourth game of the NLDS, Dusty is going to look into the brown eye (was that the pitching eye?) and see if he sees someone who’ll take the ball on short rest looking back at him.
KW
9 Sep 16 at 3:32 pm
If Voth was going to be in the mix, he would have been up already. I’m curious about that as well, as he was more consistent at AAA than Cole and had more time at higher levels than the gold-dust twins, Lopez and Giolito.
They’re still holding a DFA for someone to bring Ross back from the 60-day, though. I assume they’re going to do everything they can not to put Stras on the 60-day.
The only two on the 40-man who haven’t been bought up are Bostick and Kieboom. Not sure why they wouldn’t at least want another catcher in the house.
KW
9 Sep 16 at 3:36 pm
Voth audition: you have to wonder; why didn’t he get a shot earlier this year? I wonder if the team was “stashing” him in AAA and keeping him off 40-man because they thought he was trade fodder. i’ve always liked him, and the team will have to made a decision on him soon b/c he’s rule-5 eligible and absolutely would get picked by a rebuilding team in need of starters (like Cincy or Oakland or Colorado or Philly). In fact … if he’s a shoe-in to add to 40-man, why not add him for the run and see how he does? I dunno.
I thought they’d DFA Martin … so his call-up surprised me. Not wishing ill on the guy or anything, just curious what the plan is with him.
Todd Boss
9 Sep 16 at 4:14 pm
You know, Dusty could go with Scherzer on short rest and just not depend on him for 100 pitches; turn it into a bullpen game.
Todd Boss
9 Sep 16 at 4:15 pm
I think it was Cole over Voth because (1) they didn’t have a 40 man issue with Cole, and (2) the Nats viewed them as roughly comparable, and gave the first shot to the guy who had put in more time. He then pitched well enough to keep going. There is no chance, absent another injury or two, that Voth gets an actual look for the playoffs.
It’s still not clear to me that it can’t be Ross for the 4th spot, and only assume he goes 5/6 innings. He is back pitching and has 3 1/2 weeks to get stretched out to that. It’s almost spring training lite. Barring that, I’d guess it’ll be Latos due to experience.
I could see Lopez, but not Giolito, in the bullpen, due to the fact that Lopez isn’t appearing rattled and is performing to his stuff’s level, while Giolito does look like he is having trouble adjusting to the level and isn’t showing his normal stuff, so they aren’t going to assume that he is just going to bring it all together for the playoffs. And, without trying to dig up the crazy argument from the last post, that’s actually why I think Giolito will ultimately be better than Lopez: Giolito has always been clocked at 94-96, so he’s down 3 mph on his FB, and his change up has been terrible. And he has been getting hit, with poor command. Lopez has been almost exactly as advertised, yet is getting hit with spotty command. It’s reasonable to assume that Giolito will eventually get back to his stuff levels, and that will improve results. The big question is whether he ever gains enough command to be exceptional.
Wally
9 Sep 16 at 7:32 pm
FWIW, Lopez was warming up for long relief on Friday night before Harry Potter, the boy wizard, drilled one 440 to dead center.
I wrote a few days ago that Turner’s MLB peak level for HRs might make it up to 20. Well, after last night, his MLB totals would project over the season to around 25-27. He’s got an actual total of 14 thus far AAA-MLB. We were told just a year ago to be happy if he got up to the 10-12 level. The way he mashed those two pitches last night, he could hit 30. I’m not expecting it, but it wouldn’t surprise me. It’s getting to the point where nothing from him would surprise me. Let’s just hope he doesn’t turn into a Muggle in the postseason.
KW
10 Sep 16 at 8:49 am
KW – a guy I talked to last night at the game said that Turner’s college coach sends him a text every time he hits a HR telling him to cut it out, the idea being to stop him from ruining his swing TRYING to hit them. I agree he appears to have 25-30 HR power, but in the long run I’d prefer he hit .330 with 10-15 HRs than hit 25 HRs but bat .270.
As for the playoff start, it won’t be Latos or Petit unless they enter the rotation right now. It also looks like Lopez is now being slated for the bullpen. That leaves Ross or Cole. It will be the former if he can pitch at least 3 games this September and get his IP up to around 6. Otherwise, I think Cole will be the guy.
Karl Kolchack
10 Sep 16 at 10:58 am
I don’t know that Turner was trying for a homer on the first one; the pitch came inside, and he put what looked like the Murphy yank on it, and he hit a liner that just kept going. I don’t know what it sounded like at the park; it sounded like a rocket on TV. On the second one, he did it after fouling off several two-strike pitches, so you would think he was just trying to make solid contact then, too. It was pretty solid!
In general I agree, though, that he’s better off to seek good contact, hit for average, and let the HRs come. He’s got a good role model for this in Murphy. Rendon is much better when he hits this way as well.
I also agree that if Latos is going to be considered for the postseason rotation, we’ll see him starting soon. There haven’t been hints of that. I don’t think Petit is a spot-start option at all; I think he may be fighting with Latos or Cole for the postseason long-man spot.
As for other pitching slots, Dusty indicated yesterday that Solis had suffered a “setback” but that they still have hopes he can be ready by the playoffs.
KW
10 Sep 16 at 11:55 am
Turner has been incredible, to say the least. But he isn’t this good. Look no further than a .400 Babip. The highest sustainable ever was around .360 (Ichiro), IIRC. And it usually isn’t wise to project someone as the best ever.
That suggests without a big step up in walks, he’ll hover around .300, + or – .15. With everything else, that is still a wonderful player but we should recognize and enjoy that he is on a very hot streak that won’t be sustainable for very long. But hopefully through the rest of the year!
Wally
10 Sep 16 at 1:13 pm
Marty, that Harper kid was pretty clutch on Sat. Maybe he has a future after all. Any signs of sustained life on that front would be almost as welcome as some Stras healing.
KW
10 Sep 16 at 11:24 pm
Latos on Monday, Cole on Tuesday, so it looks like those guys are the first round of real candidates if Stras and/or Ross can’t go. Cole draws Thor for a second time.
KW
12 Sep 16 at 5:22 am
The next two games are a test for the Nats–up against a tough opponent while starting two mediocre pitchers who may be in the playoff rotation. The offense needs to step up behind them against tough pitching, just like it will in October.
I was at the stadium Saturday night, and when Revere got on in the 8th inning I turned to the guy next to me and said that it was like a playoff situation–tie game late after a great performance from Scherzer, time for Murphy and Harper to step up and win the game. Of course, Harper was up to the task after Murphy drew a walk, just like he will have to be come October.
Karl Kolchack
12 Sep 16 at 6:25 am
I’m glad that the Mets have stayed in the race enough to keep the Nats on their toes. I don’t know how “meaningful” the games truly are with a nine-game lead, but they’ve felt meaningful enough that the team has seemed quite engaged in the tight affairs over the last week or so. In 2014, they were on cruise control in Sept. and found it difficult to ramp up again in Oct.
KW
12 Sep 16 at 8:21 am
Turner’s power: i just noticed that my snarky comment over the weekend didn’t get saved. Here’s the gist: NC State’s coach should zip it; he couldn’t even get NC State into the CWS field the year (2014) he was a pre-season top 10 team and had two upper first round drafted talents in Rodon and Turner. He threw Rodon 120+ pitches seven times that year in a vain effort to get his under-performing team into the playoffs.
Wally stole my thunder about another Turner fact; .400 BABIP. I love what he’s done, but he’s got an unsustainable hitting prowness right now. Lets not turn on him when he inevitably regresses to the mean there…. or lets hope that he regresses next season 🙂
Todd Boss
12 Sep 16 at 10:16 am
We were at the game sunday; fantastic atmosphere. Great weather, really patriotic, neat scene. And only 31k paid attendance (which presumably included all the seats for half the Naval academy). NFL opening day rules I suppose.
I got a couple of awesome pictures, i’ll try to post them somewhere and link them here. Maybe just do a quickie new post.
Todd Boss
12 Sep 16 at 11:34 am