Nationals Arm Race

Here’s my review of the 2023 Draft Class, with call backs to the various draft boards out there and some thoughts along the way about sign-ability, likely bonus machinations, etc.

By the way, the Draft Tracker is now updated. There are three tabs of interest for the 2023 draft:

• Main Draft Tracker tab: shows Nats draft picks dating to 2005
• 2023 Draft Class Worksheet, where we have schools, commits, twitter feeds, and will track signing/bonuses
• 2023 Local Draft Class worksheet; tracking all DC/MD/VA players.

For the time being, i have a proposed draft bonus placed into the draft tracker to show how I think the bonuses may play out. I think the first 3 picks all go over-slot, 4th, 5th, 6th get around half their slot, and 7-10 all get like $10k Read on.

---

For reference below, the major Draft boards in use here are:

• MLBpipeline draft board Top 250: (Jim Callis & Jonathan Mayo)
• The Athletic top 100: (Keith Law, behind a paywall)
• Baseball America top 500 (Carlos Collazo and staff, behind a paywall)
• Fangraphs top 125 or so Draft Board (Eric Longenhagen):
• ESPN Insider Top 300 Draft Board (Kiley McDaniel, behind a paywall)
• D1baseball.com Top 150 College only Draft Board (D1Baseball staff, behind a paywall)
• Prospects1500 top 50 and then 51-500: (Shawn Kernahan)
• ProspectsLive Top 500
• CBSSports.com Top 30 (RJ Anderson).

I pay for some things, not for others, so this isn’t a comprehensive list of boards out there. There are other draft boards out there (Baseball Prospectus behind a paywall, PerfectGame behind a paywall, Prospects365 & 20/80 baseball seem to be out of business), but if they don’t go beyond the top 50 or if I don’t subscribe they’re not here.

I’ll put in some scouting reports for the less well-known guys from some of the paywalled’ sites, since anyone can get scouting reports from the MLB’s main site.

---

So, 1-10, here’s some thoughts on the picks one by one.

1. Dylan Crews, picked 2nd overall. OF (CF) from LSU.

Ranks: #2 by MLB, #1 Law, #1 BA, #1 Fangraphs, #2 ESPN, #1 D1Baseball, #2 Prospects1500, #1 ProspectsLive, #1 CBS.

Crews speaks for himself really, but here’s BA’s scouting report:

BA Grade:65/High
Tools: Hit: 65. Power: 65. Run: 55. Field: 55. Arm: 60.

Crews was a highly-regarded prospect coming out of Lake Mary (Fla.) High, though he ultimately withdrew from the 2020 draft and made his way to Louisiana State, where he immediately became one of the best players in college baseball. He set an LSU record with 18 home runs as a freshman, then moved from right field to center field during his sophomore season and clubbed 22 more home runs and was named a Golden Spikes semifinalist. He won the award a year later and was one of the best hitters in the country in 2023, when he hit .426/.567/.713 with 18 home runs, 16 doubles, a 13.4% strikeout rate and a 20.6% walk rate, while being the focal point of an offense that won a College World Series championship against Florida. He either got a hit or drew a walk in every game of the season. Crews has a powerfully-built 6-foot, 205-pound frame and above-average or better tools across the board. He has electric, double-plus bat speed that allows him to drive the ball to all fields with authority, catch up to velocity and make late swing decisions, with great balance and strength in his lower half. After chasing a bit too much in high school, Crews has developed an advanced approach in college, with a solid eye and just a 17% chase rate in 2023. He also hits the ball harder than most players in the class, with a 96 mph average exit velocity and a 110 mph 90th percentile mark. A plus runner now, Crews should be at least above-average in the future if he slows down, and he’s a good center field defender with advanced route-running ability and instincts. He profiles as a plus defender in an outfield corner if he needs to move, with easy plus arm strength. He entered the year as the No. 1 player in the class and is the favorite to be selected first overall, with perennial all-star upside potential.

---

2. Yohandy Morales, picked 40th overall. 3B from Miami.

Ranks: #20 by MLB, #32 Law, #26 BA, #13 Fangraphs, #18 ESPN, #6 D1Baseball, #28 Prospects1500, #29 ProspectsLive,

I briefly posted some thoughts on Morales after day 1, but you can clearly see from the relative ranks of all these shops that Morales is a big coup to get at the top of the 2nd round. Even the most bullish guy (Law) still had him as a 1st rounder. So, since Law is low-man here’s his scouting report:

Morales looks like an easy top-10 pick when you see him walk on the field or take batting practice, or even just a few game swings where he makes contact, but he whiffs too much for that and most scouts think he’ll end up in left field or at first base, making the bat that much more important. Morales looks the part, certainly, and has a pretty swing that can produce significant power but more often puts the ball on the ground. You can beat him with velocity up or breaking stuff down and away, not dissimilar to former Florida Gator Jud Fabian, who was the Orioles’ second-round pick last year. Morales is neither natural nor easy at third and I think at least has to move to right field in pro ball. To his credit, he’s hit better in the ACC, .353/.430/.500 with just an 18.5 percent strikeout rate, and may be able to hit his way back up into the middle of the first round. There just seem to be better bets to hit in this class, between Morales’ two clear holes and the fact that a lot of the hard contact he makes comes in the form of groundballs.

BA Scouting report:

BA Grade:55/Extreme
Tools:Hit: 45. Power: 60. Run: 45. Field: 50. Arm: 60.

Morales was a talented and toolsy high school prospect who ranked as the No. 77 overall player in the 2020 draft class. He made it to campus at Miami, where he initially split time at shortstop and third base, before sliding over to the hot corner full time. Morales is a large, athletic righthanded hitter with a 6-foot-4, 225-pound frame that has plenty of strength now, but still room to add good weight in the future. He’s been a consistent producer for the Hurricanes and is a career .341/.412/.624 hitter over 172 games with 46 home runs. Morales takes big hacks, and starts his swing with a bit of a hand hitch before firing through the zone with a lengthy bat path. He has plus raw power that he generates with little effort in batting practice, and generates tons of damage on contact with a 94.2 mph average exit velocity in 2023 and a 108.9 mph 90th percentile mark. Morales has pure hit questions thanks to both the length of his swing and his pitch recognition. He chases out of the zone frequently and has long seemed to struggle identifying breaking balls, which leads him to getting out in front and off-balance at times. He missed 20% of the time vs. fastballs in 2023 compared to a 37% whiff rate on breaking balls. Morales is an average runner who has solid defensive tools at third, including solid mobility, athleticism and plus arm strength. He’ll need to become more consistent in the field and could potentially slow down as he adds strength to an already large frame.

---

3. Travis Sykora, picked 71st overall. HS RHP from Round Rock HS (TX).

Ranks: #40 by MLB, #36 Law, #36 BA, #34 Fangraphs, #88 ESPN, n/a D1Baseball, #39 Prospects1500, #52 ProspectsLive,

A prep high school arm. Nats havn’t drafted a HS pitcher AT ALL since Michael Cuevas in the 23rd round in 2019. He’s turned out ok; he’s currently in the AA rotation holding his own at age 22 for a $125k signing bonus. The Nats havn’t drafted a prep HS pitcher this early since Mason Denaburg in 2018, and yes its fair to say he has NOT worked out (currently on the brink of release from an injury-filled minor league career off our low-A roster). But you can see why the Nats took him here; he’s nearly across the board a 36-40th ranked prospect, and they’re getting him nearly a full round later than he was projected by the industry. ESPN/Kiley McDaniel is most bearish on him; here’s his scouting report:

A little bit of Hans Crouse about him as a big quirky righty with huge stuff: up to 100 mph, flashes plus slider and splitter. He’s a big 6-foot-6 with below-average command and is old for the class, so the worry is he’s a reliever that may benefit from two years in the SEC.

Here’s Law’s scouting report:

Sykora is probably the hardest-throwing high school pitcher in the draft class, hitting 100 mph last summer and sitting 96-98 mph with some arm-side run, pairing it with a plus splitter that has hard tumble. He’s huge at 6-foot-6, 220 pounds, but has a super-short arm action where his arm is extremely late relative to his front leg landing, which might be why his slider has velocity but not much bite or tilt. He’s 19 already, which will hurt him in analytical models and means he’ll be draft-eligible in two years if he ends up at the University of Texas. He’s one for teams that value size and arm strength over delivery or breaking stuff.

4. Andrew Pinckney, picked 102nd overall. Col Sr OF (corner) Alabama.

Ranks: #216 by MLB, #168 BA, #211 ESPN, #123 D1Baseball, #233 Prospects1500, #187 ProspectsLive,

So, a college senior in the 4th round … me thinks Sykora and perhaps Crews need some over-slot money and Pinckney’s selection here could provide some of it. $660k slot for a college senior who went undrafted last year as a junior. Now, he’s not a scrub as evidenced by the general draft slots he was projected to go (generally 215-230 range, which puts him more like an 8th rounder and a likely $200k bonus. So expect some savings here to go elsewhere. Yet another outfielder…. i guess our hopes of seeing a pitcher-heavy draft are shot.

Now, that being said, BA liked him a lot. Here’s their scouting report:

Pinckney enjoyed a strong 2022 spring and summer, and followed it up with a career season in 2023 as a right fielder for Alabama. Listed at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, Pinckney hit .338/.442/.645 with 18 home runs, 12 doubles and a career-high 13.9% walk rate. Pinckney has impressive athleticism and loud raw tools to go with his performance, though his production has consistently come with high strikeout numbers and an aggressive approach. He missed at a 32% rate this spring and has significant contact questions versus breaking balls and offspeed pitches, and will also expand the zone too frequently against all pitch types. He does have well above-average bat speed, which translates into hard-hit balls when he does make contact, with a strong 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and above-average power potential. He’s primarily played right field with Alabama but has impressive athleticism, above-average speed and plus arm strength that should allow him to play all three outfield positions and get a shot at center field to start his pro career. Pinckney has made impressive strides offensively each year in his college career and if he’s able to take a step forward with his pitch recognition and contact ability he has impact upside on both sides of the ball. Pinckney redshirted in 2020 and is old for the class as a 22-year-old on draft day.

---

5. Marcus Brown, 138th overall pick, a SS from Oklahoma State.

Ranks: #147 BA, #214 Prospects1500, #222 ProspectsLive

Probably another value pick, in that Brown wasn’t really that highly ranked or considered. His scouting reports talk about his glove first, and he only hit .273 this year. Slot of $464k, i’ll bet we save another $200k on him on top of the $200k we probably saved on the 4th round Pinckney. His scouting reports remind me of a former Nat in Steve Lombardozzi when they say things like lefty swinging little power.

Here’s a couple scouting reports from the places that have them. BA first:

Brown began his career as a part-time second baseman for Oklahoma State, but hit well in just 24 games during his 2021 freshman season. A year later he moved into the team’s starting shortstop role and overall he’s slashed .323/.388/.436 for the Cowboys, with four home runs and 17 doubles and then was one of the best prospects in the Cape Cod League, where he played a brilliant shortstop but struggled offensively. Those offensive struggles carried over into his draft year, and Brown slashed just .273/.360/.469 with nine home runs, 10 doubles and a 16.4% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate. At 6-foot, 187 pounds, Brown is close to physically maxed out and is a light-hitting lefty bat now who probably won’t add much more power in the future. He has a choppy, line drive stroke that will occasionally put a ball over the fence to the pull side, but is better suited for all-fields line drive contact. His exit velocities were modest, at just 82 mph on average, and without average or even 40-grade power, he’ll need to improve his swing decisions and chase out of the zone less frequently to provide offensive value in pro ball. Brown does have solid pure bat-to-ball skills, with an 80% contact rate this spring, and he’s also done a nice job catching up to 92-plus mph velocity. While Brown currently has a light offensive profile, he’s as steady as they come defensively. He has a quick first step and silky smooth actions in the field and does a nice job creating efficient angles to the baseball, with deft footwork around the bag on double plays, and above-average arm strength.

and from Prospectslive:

Arguably the best defensive shortstop in the draft, Brown combines slick hands with good range and a plus arm to provide great defense up the middle. The bat isn’t as advanced as the glove as he struggles to drive and impact the ball but shows solid ability to make contact. There are no doubts about the glove but Brown’s draft stock and development will be tied to his offensive prosduction whether or not he can add power to his game. – Sam Capobianco

---

6. Gavin Dugas, drafted 165th overall, 5th year sr 2B from LSU.

Ranks: Unranked by all shops

So, On the one hand we got the cleanup hitter from the CWS champion LSU team, a guy who wasn’t half bad this year (.290/.464/.589 with 17 hrs). On the other hand, he’s unranked, even outside the top 500, of every blog/scouting shop, which probably indicates what his expectations are in terms of both signing bonus and future success. Whatever; I like this pick; he was a gamer and he hits. Lets see what he can do in pro ball. Slot value of $357k; i don’t think this is a $10k senior sign, and I think he’ll get a bit of money, but expect more slot savings.

BA Scouting report:

Dugas has been a power-over-hit infielder for Louisiana State throughout his college career, but he banked a .300 season in 2022 and came 10 points shy of repeating that in 2023. In his fifth season with the program Dugas hit .290/.464/.589 with 17 home runs, 12 doubles, a 20.5% strikeout rate and a 14.3% walk rate. Dugas looks to do damage with a pull-heavy approach and uphill bat path. His home runs almost exclusively go to the pull side and that approach has led him to leak out early and swing-and-miss against breaking balls and offspeed offerings. Dugas is a limited defender who might be pushed off the dirt in pro ball and he’ll be 23 on draft day, but his righthanded power could make him an interesting senior sign target.

---

7. Ryan Snell, drafted 195 overall. 5th year Sr C from Lamar.

Ranks: unranked by all shops

Well, you don’t get much more of a cost savings than a 5th year senior catcher from a no-name school. Snell’s not on any rankings; all we have to go on is his 2023 stats. And they’re solid: .317/.412/.654 for an OPS north of 1,000. He’s undersized because of course he is, but his bat seems to play. Slot value of $278k, i’ll bet he signs for almost nothing. No scouting reports anywhere that I can find, not even out of perfect game.

8. Jared Simpson, drafted 225 overall. 5th year senior LHP reliever from Iowa.

Ranks: unranked by all shops.

A 5th year senior lefty reliever from a big 10 baseball program does not scream “slot value.” Simpson had a 6.54 ERA this year, but he did have big K/9 numbers. This smells like a $10k sign.

BA Scouting report:

A 6-foot-4, 205-pound lefthander, Simpson struggled to a 6.54 ERA this spring in 42.2 innings with Iowa. He struck out a decent number of hitters with a 31.5% strikeout rate, but also walked 10.8%. His fastball sits in the low-90s but he hides the ball well and has little effort in his delivery. His sweeping slider generated a 26% miss rate this spring, and he also mixes in a shorter, mid-80s cutter that is effective. There is room for Simpson to put on productive weight which will likely translate to a couple more ticks of velocity.

9. Thomas Schultz, RHP senior from Vanderbilt, drafted 255th overall.

He threw just 13 innings out of Vanderbilt’s bullpen this year with a 5.40 ERA. Clearly a $10k level signing. No current scouting reports anywhere; here’s his PG report circa 2018:

Thomas Schultz is a 2019 RHP with a 6-6 205 lb. frame from Mount Carmel, PA who attends Our Lady Of Lourdes HS. Extra tall build, lanky and physically projectable with very long limbs. Leg lift delivery with a long and loose arm stroke, extended high 3/4’s arm slot, whippy arm action. Fastball topped out at 91 mph, works both sides of the plate well with his fastball and gets very good running life at times. Big soft curveball will show good depth at times, looks like a future slider candidate. Very projectable fastball with work to do on his secondary pitches. Very good student, verbal commitment to Vanderbilt.

10. Phillip Glasser, 5th year senior SS out of Indiana, drafted 285th overall.

Fifth year senior with no scouting reports on any shops, but he didn’t hit half bad this year (.357 starting for Indiana). Another clear senior sign slot savings bonus.

---

First impressions: I think the Nats took one look at their top 3 picks and have decided to basically make this a 3-man draft. I think the lion’s share of their $14M+ bonus pool is going to Crews, Morales, and Sykora, and everyone else is org-man filler. And you know what? I’m fine with that. Crews the #1 ranked prospect on most boards, Morales was a mid-1st rounder projected who fell, and Sykora was a prep kid with a massive arm projected as a mid 2nd rounder who fell as well.

The Nats have done this with drafts in the past (the Giolito draft was basically a 1-man draft for example), but at least they got 3 top-end prospects out of this one.