Nationals Arm Race

Here’s a wrap up of the end of season awards.  I posted my predictions here (albeit without MLB comeback player of the year predictions, since those came out very early in the off-season).

Final results: For the 2nd year running, I went 8-for-8 in predicting the BBWAA awards.   But I will say this; predicting these awards going forward will be more difficult, as more modern baseball writers will depend more and more on advanced stats to decided these awards.  Meanwhile, I was only 1-for-4 in predicting the Sporting News “unofficial” award add-ons for GM and Comeback player (and I pretty much disagree with all I was wrong about :-).

• AL MVP:  Prediction: Justin Verlander.  Winner: Verlander.  Ellsbury 2nd, Bautista 3rd.
• AL Cy Young: Prediction: Justin Verlander. Winner: Verlander, unanimously.  Weaver 2nd, Shields 3rd.
• AL Rookie of the Year: Prediction: Jeremy Hellickson. Winner: Hellickson rather easily.  Trumbo 2nd, Hosmer 3rd.
• AL Mgr: Prediction: Joe Maddon.  Winner: Maddon.  Leyland 2nd, Washington 3rd.
• Sporting News AL GM: Prediction: Andrew Friedman.  Winner: Dave Dombrowski.
• Sporting News AL Comeback player of the Year.  Prediction: Bartolo Colon.  Winner: Jacoby Ellsbury.

• NL MVP: Prediction: Ryan Braun. Winner: Braun.  Kemp 2nd, Fielder 3rd.
• NL Cy Young: Prediction: Clayton Kershaw.  Winner: Kershaw handily.  Halladay 2nd, Lee 3rd.
• NL Rookie: Prediction: Craig Kimbrel.  Winner: Kimbrel unanimously.  Freeman 2nd, Worley 3rd.
• NL Mgr: Prediction: Kirk Gibson.  Winner: Gibson. Roenicke 2nd, LaRussa 3rd.
• Sporting News NL GM:Prediction: Doug Melvin.  Winner: Melvin.
• Sporting News NL Comeback player of the year.  Prediction: Ryan Vogelsong.  Winner: Lance Berkman

Discussion (here’s a link to all the 2011 post-season voting with totals from Baseball-Reference.com).

• AL MVP: Verlander as predicted.  Not because I think he’s the MVP (see my rant about Pitchers winning the MVP here), but because he won the voting.  I think this kind of winner will gradually fade as more modern, stats-aware voters pour into the BBWAA and start “improving” the vote.  The same goes for Cy Youngs as well; see commentary for the NL Cy Young award.  That being said, this voter’s explanation perfectly sums up what I would have guessed would have happened.  And this guy, who voted Michael Young first, Verlander 2nd, Ellsbury 5th and Bautista 7th should really have his voting credentials questioned.
• AL Cy Young: no surprise on the winner, or 2nd or 3rd place really.  I was surprised that Josh Beckett didn’t fare better.  Perhaps it was because of his injury later in the season.  His WAR should have put him in the top 5.
• AL Rookie: Again, no surprise winner here.  Hellickson proved his value with a sparkling 2010 late season call-up, just as Matt Moore did this year for Tampa.  This award looked to be Michael Pineda‘s at the all-star break.  He finishes 5th.
• AL Manager: Maddon won pretty handily; no surprise here.
• AL Comeback Player of the Year: when you put Ellsbury’s season into context, he certainly out-performed any reasonable expectation of his abilities.  He wasn’t exactly a slouch in 2009, but he certainly wasn’t a 30-home run talent either.  I guessed Colon just based on the fact that he was basically out of baseball before the Yankees signed him.
• AL Executive: Perhaps the voters have tired of the tight-rope act going on in Tampa.  Dombrowski’s FA signings were sublime, but his mid-season trade for Doug Fister probably won over the voters, who watched the Tigers improve 14 games and win the AL Central.  I question the award though; Detroit already had a massive payroll and established players in most positions.  Tampa made the playoffs in a year they slashed payroll by 40% in the AL east.

• NL MVP: another award that will be roundly criticized by Sabre-nerds, since Kemp had a slightly better statistical season.  However I agree 100% with Mark Zuckerman‘s reasoning.  The MVP is the best player on a playoff team, unless a player on a non-playoff team has an other-worldly season.
• NL Cy Young: Even I was surprised at the overwhelming win; 27 of 32 first place votes.  Halladay the easy 2nd place winner, though we’re bound to hear stat-heads whining that Halladay had the more impactful season.  Interesting that Ian Kennedy garnered one first place vote; thankfully it didn’t factor into any of the eventual results, because anyone who thought Kennedy’s season was better than the first three pitchers was crazy.  I think the Kershaw vote was predictable if only because Halladay already has a Cy Young to his credit, and voters wanted to give the award to someone new.  Predictably, Keith Law voted against the majority in a major award category, as he’s done the past few years.  I say predictably because Law represents the stat-heavy minded voter that, while probably correct in their voting way, does not represent the majority of current voters and thus made the predictability of this award relatively straight forward.  Here’s Amanda Comak‘s vote and explanation.
• NL Rookie: Again, no surprise that Kimbrel won unanimously, as most older voters notoriously over-rate closers.  But there wasn’t a better choice than Kimbrel after his dominant season.  Atlanta shows how good a franchise they have been in developing talent lately with 1st and 2nd place in this competition, to go with the excellent Brandon Beachy.  Watch out next year for Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino to be early ROY candidates.
• NL Comeback Player:  No offense to Berkman’s incredible offensive season, but its not as if he was exactly chopped liver prior to 2011. Vogelsong hadn’t appeared in the majors since 2006!  Vogelsong was one of this year’s great feel-good stories, stuck in the minors for years and then putting up a fantastic season covering for the injured Barry Zito at the age of 33.  The players showed why they can’t be trusted to vote properly; Vogelsong is the definition of a comeback player.
• NL Executive: Melvin’s all-in approach for 2011 worked, and he was rewarded for it.

Justin Verlander’s season is one for the ages. Will it net him both a Cy Young and an MVP? Photo unknown origin via rumorsandrants.com

Last year (not to pat myself on the back or anything) but I went 8 for 8 in predicting the end-of-season awards for MLB.  In 2010 though, most of the major awards were relatively straightforward, even the Managers of the year being pretty obvious, so perhaps it wasn’t that great of a feat.

Here’s my predictions for 2011.  There’s been enough discussion about these awards in the media, with enough differing opinions, that its going to be interesting to see how this plays out.  This time through, there’s enough controversy about who really “deserves” the two MVP awards that I’ll be offering up some distinctions between who I think will win and who really should win.  I wonder if sometime soon we won’t have to make that distinction.

• AL MVP:  Who I think will win: Justin Verlander.   In a year where none of the four playoff contending teams really had a break-out candidate, I think the voters will give it to a pitcher for the first time in 25 years.  I don’t agree with it: I don’t think pitchers should be eligible for MVPs (a topic for a future blog-post), but Verlander’s season was clearly a step ahead of the normal pitcher’s season.  As for Jacoby Ellsbury, his 30/30 season and his single-handed effort to drag his team into the post season almost earned him the nod, but when Boston missed the playoffs I’m guessing Ellsbury’s candidacy took a nose dive as well.  Curtis Granderson‘s fade in the 2nd half after a blistering first half costs him, despite a fantastic season overall. Adrian Gonzalez also started out w/ a monster first half, but faded down the stretch.  Jose Bautista would get more consideration if he was playing for a better team.  Miguel Cabrera quietly had a fantastic season but he’s completely overshadowed on his own team by Verlander’s great season.  Who really should win? Batista if his team was relevant at all.  He was clearly the best AL offensive player this year and put up historic stats.  But, the modern MVP isn’t about guys who toil in the 2nd division.  If they wanted to give the equivalent of a “Cy Young” to the “best hitter” in the league, Batista would be the winner hands down.  The definition of the MVP comes into consideration yet again.  Who probably would have won if his team didn’t collapse and miss the playoffs? Ellsbury.
• AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, with a no-hitter and dominance day-in and day-out, first to 20 wins and the pitching triple crown.  Jered Weaver, Josh Beckett get some 2nd place consideration (despite Beckett’s late season injury and subsequent beer and chicken distractions).   James Shields became a new pitcher in 2011 and could get some top 5 votes. CC Sabathia will get votes since wins play so heavily.  Felix Hernandez won’t get the votes he got last year.  CJ Wilson had a great season leading Texas to back-to-back titles; thankfully for him the voting for this award came in prior to his post-season meltdowns.
• AL Rookie of the Year:  Jeremy Hellickson had wins and a great ERA and should be the pick.   Michael Pineda looked like a lock until fading in the 2nd half, but Hellickson’s toiling on the East Coast (media bias) and in the AL East (legitimately more difficult than the teams Pineda normally faced) gives him the nod.  Mark Trumbo put up some comparisons to Wally Pipp for Los Angeles and gives the Angels another big bat going into 2012.  Jordan Walden (closer for the Angels) had a fine season.  Ivan Nova quietly put his name into the mix with a 16-win season.  Justin Smoak, perhaps Dustin Ackley, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Aaron Crow could get mentions.  Zack Britton started strong but disappeared in the 2nd half.  There’s so many good candidates this year, the voting may be pretty close, and any of the above names could get some top-5 votes.  But Hellickson should be the winner.
  
• AL Mgr:  Joe Maddon‘s magic show of a managing job, with a completely new bullpen, huge loss of talent and nearly halving of his team’s payroll from the 2010 version of the Rays yet still sneaking into the playoffs should be your winner.  Manny Acta, who had the Indians in playoff position for a bit after last year’s 93-loss season in the first half, gets some consideration.  You could mention the job Ron Washington did to get his team back to the WS despite losing his ace pitcher.
• (Unofficial “award”): AL GM: This award begins and ends with Andrew Friedman, who had the Rays in the playoffs with a payroll 1/5th of his competition.  It just doesn’t get any better than that.  Dombrowski in Detroit gets some credit for trades that paid off well, and Daniels in Texas gets some longer term credit for continuing to build a good young team.

• NL MVP: Who I think will win: Ryan Braunled his team to the playoffs and overshadowed his cleanup hitter down the stretch.   Matt Kemp hit the cover off the ball all season but his team went nowhere during the season of the McCourts, and there’s little precedent for players from the 2nd division winning the MVP unless they have an outer-world season.  Jose Reyes had a great (contract) year, but his team is faltering and he was hurt by injuries.  And, his little ploy to guarantee the batting title on the season’s final day certainly turned off some BBWAA members.  Andrew McCutchen had a breakout season but the Pirates swoon will cost him.  Lance Berkman will get some consideration but will be difficult to select since he’s (arguably) the 3rd best player on his own team.   Prince Fielder also had a monster year and could take votes away from Braun, but without a clear candidate in the competition I’m guessing Fielder comes in 3rd.  Justin Upton came out of nowhere (as did his team) to put his name in the discusion and likely is a top-5 finisher.  Who really should win? Kemp clearly, but for the same reasons Batista won’t win, neither will Kemp.
• NL Cy Young:  Clayton Kershaw won the NL pitching “triple crown” (Technically, he tied for the league-lead in wins with 21) for a team with a losing record on the year.  That’s tough to do.  Roy Halladay, having his typical dominant year with 6 CGs at the break, certainly deserves the award but i’m guessing voters want to reward someone new.  Cliff Lee isn’t having a half-bad season either.  Cole Hamels and Jair Jurrjens should be in this conversation but tailed off in the latter part of the season.  Ian Kennedy should get some 4th and 5th place votes for his fantastic season, finishing 21-4 for the surprising NL West winning Diamondbacks.
• NL Rookie: Craig Kimbrel, who broke the rookie-save record before the all star break and is one of the top closers in the game right now will win despite what people may think about saves and reliever value.  Freddie Freeman is in the conversation.  Phillies starter Vance Worley has come out of nowhere to go 9-1 to start the 2nd half.   The Atlanta rookies (including Brandon Beachy) could go 1-2-3.  Hometown candidates Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos certainly deserves some notice and may get a few 5th place votes here and there, but you can’t hit .230 and expect to win the ROY award.
• NL Mgr: Kirk Gibson in Arizona for a worst-to-first turn around.  Clint Hurdle of Pittsburgh, with his 2010-worst team over .500 at the all star break is 2nd.
• (unofficial award) NL GM: Milwaukee’s Doug Melvin wheeled and dealt his prospects into two front-line starters and a first place team out of last year’s 77-win team.  You can also give some credit to Towers in Arizona (though a lot of the work there was due to his predecessor).

Thoughts?  There’s plenty of opinion pieces out there with these predictions, though most were published at the end of the season.  Get ready for two weeks of award over-analysis as these awards are given out by the BBWAA starting November 14th.

Here's a scary nightmare for Nats fans. Photo: Nats official photo day via deadspin.com

Bill Ladson did his seemingly monthly inbox on 8/29/11.  Here’s how i’d have answered the questions he took.

Q: What are your thoughts on Chien-Ming Wang possibly being a part of the rotation next year?

A: I’m not quite ready to say he’s worth considering for one of our 5 rotation spots next year.  We get 6 more starts to decide.  Remember though its not a given that he’ll even be back with us (a topic for an imminent blog post).  Ladson says if he continues to look good there’s a strong possibility he’ll be back.  We’ll see.

Q: Do you think that Prince Fielder is a good fit for the Nationals? I understand that Adam LaRoche has another year guaranteed, but Fielder’s bat is much needed in the middle of the lineup.

A: No, I don’t think Fielder is a good fit.  I think he’s a bad-body, poor defense first baseman who may age badly.  Plus, I don’t think this team is ready or willing to spend that kind of money again, so soon after getting burned on the Werth deal.  Ladson says the last thing they need is another first baseman.  Good point.

Q: Do you think the Nationals should try to re-acquire Alfonso Soriano?

A: Hahahah.  That had to be a joke question. Absolutely not; he’s vastly overpaid, is producing at a fraction of his salary, is a mediocre left fielder at best, and wasn’t exactly Mr. Winner in the clubhouse. The Cubs are stuck with him for the next several years unless they decided to just eat millions of dollars of his salary to pay him to go away.  Ladson: Absolutely not.

Q: I have heard there is a chance that Anthony Rendon would play third base once he gets to the big leagues and Ryan Zimmerman would move to first base. Is this true?

A: I have a hard time believing a player routinely mentioned in the discussion of the best defensive third baseman in the league would be moved by an unproven rookie, no matter what his pedigree or reputation may be.  This isn’t like Mike Bordick moving a secretly awful defensive shortstop in Cal Ripken; this is one of the two or three best positional defenders in the game.  Rendon moves, not Zimmerman.  Ladson says that Rendon will play 3B professionally and will move for Zim.  But, Zim’s contract runs out in 2013 and that’s a great point … where will the team be by then?

Q: Do you think Danny Espinosa can beat out Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award?

A: Not anymore; perhaps if he continued his upward average trend starting in July through the end of the year he could have challenged. But Kimbrel’s great ERA and save totals will get him the win. Atlanta may have the top 3 rookie of the year vote getters (including Beachy) and a leader in next year’s race in Tehran. That team is stacked and built for the future.  Ladson says : no, but that Espinosa should be in the hunt for a gold glove award.

Q: What is your take on Roger Bernadina? He has produced with consistency, especially in the leadoff position, but keeps getting sent down.

A: You think he’s “produced?”   Here’s his career stats; he’s got almost identical numbers in 2011 to his 2010 numbers, and with more than 800 career at bats spread across multiple seasons he’s an 82 OPS+ hitter.  Sorry; you need more production out of a leadoff hitter, or any major league hitter, than that.   He used his last option in 2011 and most likely will be DFA’d after spring training 2012.   Ladson says he’s a tease and thinks he’s no more than a 4th outfielder.

Q: Can you explain the Nats’ fascination with shortstop Ian Desmond, given his regression at the plate this year — lower average, no power?

A: Its all about potential with Desmond.  His UZR/150 is still in the negative range but the team thinks he’s a plus-plus defender.  To his credit, he’s vastly cut down on throwing errors this year.  He has absolutely regressed at the plate.  But the team loves his leadership capabilities.  My take; he’ll be given one more year at SS to become a competent hitter and then Espinosa will take over.  Ladson plays the arbitrary endpoints game and says Desmond has improved since the all-star break.  Yeah, when you’re dead last in the league in OPS you have no place to go but up.

My answers to the questions he took on 7/26/11. I forgot to hit “post” on this and the content has been sitting around for weeks.  As you can see it was a lot of trade deadline talk when everyone thought we were getting a CF.

Q: What happens when Jordan Zimmermann reaches his innings limit? Does he go on the disabled list or will he be kept on the roster?

A: Good question. I’d guess he will get an invented injury if he reaches his limit in mid August, so the team isn’t short handed in the bullpen. Ladson notes that if he lasts til 9/1, rosters expand and there won’t be a need to play DL games.

Q: Would you trade Ian Desmond for Michael Bourn?  Would you trade Desmond, Clippard AND a Prospect for him?

A: If the Astros would take Desmond for Bourn, yeah I probably would make that deal.  I know we’d be selling Desmond short, and he has a lot of leadership qualities, but he’s not hitting the ball (he has one of the 2-3 lowest OPS figures in the league for qualifying hitters).  Anything MORE for Bourn and I think the deal doesn’t make sense for the Nats.   Ladson totes the party line on Desmond…and states that we’re not talking to Houston about Bourn.

Q: Who do you think would be a better fit with the Nationals: Bourn or B.J. Upton?

A: I think both would be good “fits.”  I’d rather have Upton. Upton grew up in Virginia Beach and knows Zimmerman from youth baseball, so he’d already have a friend on the team.  Ladson also notes the local connections with Upton.

Q: What are the chances of the Nationals making a run at Prince Fielder in the upcoming offseason?

A: Pretty high.  Of all the major FAs coming up, he’s a decent risk.  He’s still young and you’d be buying his absolute best years (as opposed to most FA targets, who are already into their 30s and on the decline when they get paid). He may not be the best defensive first baseman but he’d be a big help to the offensively-challenged lineup.  Ladson doesn’t seem to think we’re in the market for Fielder.

Q: What is the future of Chris Marrero, seemingly blocked now by both LaRoche and Morse?

A: Great question.  I think he’s trade bait.  He doesn’t hit well enough to push a 25 homer/100-rbi capable guy like LaRoche off the bag, and Morse is suddenly becoming one of the hottest hitters in the league.  Ladson thinks he’s trade bait.

Q: Did the Nats consider whether Werth could handle the pressures of his contract before they gave it to him?

A: No, and show me a team that DOES do that kind of consideration.  Stars are stars because they perform, not because they’re capable of performing.  Ladson says ask him about Werth in 2 more years.  Great answer.