Nationals Arm Race

Boswell’s weekly chat had more Redskins questions than normal, but there was a slew of baseball questions in there as well.  As always, questions are edited for levity/clarity and I write my answer before reading his.

Q: When is Strasburg coming back?

A: Per Mark Zuckerman’s csnwashington article, based on his regular 5-day rest and build up of innings, we should expect Stephen Strasburg back in the majors around September 6th or 7th, right in the middle of the mid-week LA Dodgers series.  Wow imagine if he went up against Clayton Kershaw.  Boswell guesses 9/6/11 but repeats over and again these are guesses, since rainouts have a funny way of ruining best laid plans for advance ticket buyers.

Q: Will the Nats go after Prince Fielder, as is being mentioned in the national press?

A: I don’t think so; he doesn’t really fit the mold of the track-star/plus-defender mentality that Mike Rizzo wants in his players.  Plus, signing Fielder basically light’s Adam LaRoche‘s $8M 2012 salary on fire.  And I don’t think the owners would take lightly to 1/8th of their payroll being so blatantly wasted.  I don’t think 2012 is the year that this team makes its big FA splash; I still see 2012 as an incremental building year, with 2013 the year to make a run.  Boswell Agrees.

Q: Do you agree with Kasten’s plan to fill the stadium with Phillies fans?

A: Absolutely not.  I don’t care how much money a sold out weekend series full of drunken low-lifes from Philadelphia generates for your team; its not worth the clear damage done to the psyche of the paying Nats fans who DO show up only to be treated like interlopers in their own stadium.  Philly fans show up for one game and spend a few hundred dollars.  Nats season ticket holders spend THOUSANDS of dollars and finance the team’s payroll.  Which customer do you think is more important to keep happy?  Boswell prints a letter describing what most of us went through opening day 2010, the first time the Philadelphia hordes descended en masse on Nats stadium.

Q: Does Jayson Werth check his swing too much?

A: Not that i’ve noticed, but i’m not exactly glued to the television every time he gets to the plate.  I will say that at sunday’s game he was clearly the victim of a horrible 3rd strike call, and then guessed wrong on another versus Halladay.  No shame in that.  He got enough clutch at-bats and hits this weekend to get an awful lot of good grace from fans.  Boswell says its his natural swing.

Q: Who will be here next year of this list?  Desmond. Gomes. Livo. Wang. Gorzelanny. Pudge.

A: Definitely here: Desmond.  Hopefully here: Wang.  Probably here: Gomes.  Likely gone: Gorzelanny.  Most certainly gone: Livo and Pudge.

The team isn’t ready to give up on Desmond; they like him as a leader and he’s turned into a pretty good fielder.  Wang remains to be seen; has he pitched well enough so far to earn a 2012 contract?  Probably not quite yet … but he also isn’t under a club option for 2012 either (a topic for a future post).  Gomes’ acquisition was a mystery; he’s a lower-performing right-handed version of Laynce Nix but without the left handedness.  He’s making $1.75M this year and certainly wouldn’t get that on the open market, so he’d likely accept arbitration from the team if it was offered (which should have been the primary reason we traded for him, to get his compensation pick).  Gorzelanny seems destined for a non-tender; he didn’t get used for 13 straight days and clearly isn’t getting back into the bullpen.  He probably looks for a rotation spot elsewhere in the league.  Livan looks to be closer to retirement than another contract offer, as he’s regressed badly this season.  Finally Pudge; If I were Ivan Rodriguez i’d go looking for one last shot with a winner.  He’s likely to get a 2-year deal as a backup but his days of starting are probably over.  Boswell agrees with me on most of these opinions.

Q: Are any of the prospects they drafted in 2011 considered top 10 in their farm system?

A: Absolutely!  In fact the 2011 draft may go down as the day this franchise turned.  Rendon shoots up to probably be the #2 in our system behind Harper.  Meyer and Goodwin are top 10 right out of the gate.  And Purke, if he turns out to be healthy, is a 1-1 talent (i.e., #1 draft pick in the 1st Round) who may be right up there with Harper and Rendon.  Someone asked what the Nats top 10 looks like in Jim Callis’ latest Baseball America chat and he said, “Off the top of my head, I’d start their Top 10 like this: Harper, Rendon, Peacock, Cole, Meyer, Goodwin, Purke (move him up if he proves to be healthy). Looks like a possible top-five system, definite top-10.”  Boswell says the top 4 guys are all top-12 prospects right now.

Q: Should Clippard replace Storen as the closer?

A: No.  For two reasons: Clippard is a better arm and therefore gets used in more high leverage situations.  The fact that the Nats can do this with their best reliever is fantastic.  Second; the 8-9 guys are used to their roles, are pretty successful in those roles, so why mess with it?  Boswell says they’re both excellent.

Q: Do you see the Nats as NL East contenders in three years?

A: Absolutely.  I see it even before then; we’re slightly below a .500 team this year w/o our Ace starter and with huge chunks of the season missed by our supposed #3 and #4 hitters.  A full season with Strasburg at the helm plus replacing Livan’s poor starts and Zimmermann’s continued improvement should see this team easily move above .500.  Then you spend money in the FA-rich 2012 off season and prepare for a playoff run in 2013.  Boswell’s succinct answer: Yes.

Q: What “letter grade” do you give Harper on the year?

A: A+.  He was the 2nd youngest player in low-A and owned it as if he was playing against the JV team.  He then was (easily) the youngest player in AA and held his own.  Its a common mistake to remember that if he was playing by the rules, he’d have been a high school senior in April instead of playing ball in Hagerstown, and that he wouldn’t have even signed til 8/15 instead of having hundreds of at bats.  How can you not say he’s met all expectations and exceeded them?  Boswell takes a rather nit-picky view and says he’s a year further away than what he thought.

Q: Should the Nats management take a page from Leonsis’ playbook and actively discourage Phillies fans from coming to games?

A: Tough call; clearly they enjoy the revenue bump as discussed above, but the Nationals fan experience is beyond awful.  Maybe wait until you’re a good enough team to draw on your own and then start discriminating against the 215 area code.

Q: Is Adam Dunn finished?

A: No, but he really needs to re-think his approach to the game.  Why he has fallen off a cliff is probably a combination of factors; new league and new pitchers, pressure of the contract, pressure of being the “savior” of a big-market team, new ballpark, new city and moving your family, but most of all a new position (DH) that may leave him “bored” and “unfocused” during games.  But he’s always relied on his talent and physical abilities in the off season to bring him around and at his age perhaps its time for him to work harder in the off-season.  Boswell didn’t really answer this question, just noted that Dunn’s plight is unprecedented.

Q: What would you say if you were the Nats owners/management to Bud Selig’s “singling out” the team for going over-slot to sign its draftees?

A: I would have told Bud Selig to f*ck off.  Boswell was more diplomatic.

Q: How hard is Jordan Zimmermann’s innings limit?

A: I’d say its pretty solid.  Why possibly jeopardize him in 2011, even if you don’t believe in innings limits or think that its bunk science.  Besides, we really need to give starts to Strasburg and possibly to one from Meyers, Milone or Peacock.  Shut him down, tell him to take an early vacation and see you in February.  Boswell points out a great point: at 162 innings Zimmermann qualifies for year-end award lists and top 10s, which he’s currently on.  He’ll get it and then be pulled.

Tom Boswell must have been on vacation; he hasn’t done a chat in weeks.  Well, he caught up and more on August 15th’s version.  Here’s how i’d have answered the questions he took.  As always, the “questions” posed are edited here for levity and clarity, and I write my “answer” before reading his.

Q: Why is Espinosa struggling at the plate?

A: Probably because the league’s pitchers are adjusting to him the 2nd time around.  Plus, there’s a lot of at-bats for advance scouts to learn from and formulate plans of attack.  This is a constant adjustment cycle that hitters and pitchers do throughout the year and throughout their careers.  There could also be a normal rookie fatigue factor; you play 30 games in a HS season, 60-or so games in a college season, around 70 games in a short-season minor league, and around 140 games in a full-season minor league.  To say nothing of the incredible jump in talent from even AAA to the majors.  So, some regression is to be expected as the season winds down.  Boswell agrees with the adjustments angle and gives some tips for Espinosa to follow.  I hope he was reading the chat 🙂

Q: Will the Nats get to 77 victories?

A: With a .479 winning percentage as of 8/15/11, that puts them on a pace for 77 wins (rounding down since they’re one game ahead of their pythagorean won-loss record).  I would say that the team will likely fail to reach that threshold though; September is going to see debut starts given to guys who have never seen the majors, and the transition is usually pretty tough.  I see a few extra losses thrown in there to bring down our win totals to the 73-74 range.   Boswell sticks by his pre-season prediction of 75.  Its looking like a good prediction.

Q: How has Davey Johnson performed so far?

A: I’d say he’s been awful.  Even given that Riggleman’s record was improved by a winning streak, the numbers are clear.  Riggleman was .500 with this team, Johnson is 17-24 (as of 8/15/11).  I think he’s poorly managed the bullpen and is poorly handling his starters.  On more than one occasion he’s let a starting pitcher make the 3rd out in the 6th, only to yank him one walk or one hit into the 7th.  This makes no sense to me!  Why give away that at-bat and that out (remember; you only get 27 outs in a game) especially if there’s runners on base and you still have hitters off the bench.  What was the point of “strengthening the bench” if you never use those hitters?  Grr.   Boswell agrees with me somewhat, and notes that Johnson quickly ended the lineup manipulations under Riggleman.  I’m not going to kill Riggleman for trying those lineup mods; they did lead to a very hot streak for this team.  Another interesting fact; the team has given up 10+ runs 6 times so far under Johnson but only twice before that under Riggleman; why is that?  The implication seemed to be that Riggleman was over-using Storen and Clippard.

Q: Will Purke sign by the deadline?

A: I didn’t think so: I was wrong.  Boswell had no answer, just said he’d be watching at midnight on 8/15/11.

Q: Should MLB allow close/controversial plays to be replayed on the scoreboard?

A: Good question: right now presumably these plays are NOT shown on scoreboards to prevent further fan-distress and histronics from the argumentative players and managers.  So, clearly when a play is not shown on the board the tacit message sent to all who are watching is, “oh they’re not showing the play so the umps must have blown it.”  It doesn’t seem to really cause that much grief in the NFL, which plays replays instantly (since they have 35 seconds to kill after every play).  So I think MLB should just show replays of all plays and not editorialize.  Boswell seems to agree.

Q: In 2013, what are the chances that this is the lineup we see every day: Ramos, Morse, Rendon, Espinosa, Zimmerman, Harper, CF, Werth?

A: Pretty close in my estimation.  We don’t have positions listed but the implication is that Harper is playing LF, Morse 1B and Rendon 2nd.  2013 may be a tad too early for Rendon; it may be a safer bet to put Lombardozzi at leadoff/2nd.  I think Harper should be trained as a center fielder.  Rendon should be able to transition to LF if need be, but it may be a waste of his abilities.  Otherwise this looks pretty close.  Boswell says there’s a pretty good chance, talks about Rendon a bit then gets more digs into Desmond despite his not being named here.

Q: Is there any significant relationship between payroll outlay (Nats 9th from bottom) and w/l record (14th from bottom)?

A: (links to use here: list of payroll by team, and the current MLB standings 1-30.   Nats are, as of 8/16/11 18th in W/L and22nd in total payroll.

There is definitely a relationship in general between payroll and won/loss records; I don’t think its a coincidence that the 3 highest payrolls (NYY, Boston, Philadelphia) are also the 3 best teams.  However that middle ground is where the direct correlation breaks down.  The Chicago Cubs have the 6th highest payroll and are 27th in won/losses.  Meanwhile the Tampa Bay Rays are 29th in payroll but have the 9th best record playing in the AL East.  This middle ground is where teams can use superior General Managers, superior scouting and overall organizational improvements to be better than they appear.  With respect to the Nationals current positions, I’ll say two things.

1. Yes we’re clearly doing “better” than our payroll would indicate, a sign that Rizzo is getting good value for his contract dollars.
2. Its despicable that a team with owners as wealthy as the Lerners, playing in a $600M stadium that was given to the team, and playing in the wealthiest per-capita area with a top 8 population center in the country isn’t spending more on this team.

Q: Is Batting Average not that good of a stat to use to judge hitters?  (in the context of Jayson Werth’s .226 value)

A: Batting Average needs context, yes.  A well-hit line drive directly at a 3rd baseman is really a better hit ball than a weak tweener ground ball that gets through for a hit.   If looking at the BA, you really should look at the BABIP (which for Werth is now .281 on the season, decent and closer to league norms than earlier, but still below his career .314) and his breakdowns of line drives, grounders and flyballs.  Here we see that Werth’s LD% is about on a par with his season last year, but his fly balls are way down.  Makes sense; more of his flyballs were turning into homers at the cozy Philadelphia park.  The stat I really use the most is OPS+, which normalizes the OPS (on base percentage plus slugging) to the league averages and is read more or less as a percentage value as compared to MLB average.  Werth’s number there is currently 98, meaning his OPS is about 2% worse than the league norm.  Now, this isn’t great (he’s being paid like on of the top 10 players in the league and was 5th in the NL in OPS+ last year), but it isn’t Adam Dunn.  Boswell points out that Werth’s slugging % is down and that he’ll be here til the next president is in office.

Q: Was Strasburg an injury waiting to happen?

A: Unknown; the injury he suffered (to his elbow) was NOT the injury that all these inverted-W and/or shoulder loading freaks drone on and on about.  So, until Strasburg’s shoulder blows out (as Prior’s did), we won’t know.   Boswell agrees

Q: What is going on with Zimmerman’s throwing motion?

A: Looks to me like the team has tried to address his biggest problem; making the un-pressured throw accurately.  It happens; you get a ball, have all the time in the world, and fire a ball over your first baseman’s head.  Then it gets into your head and you’re in trouble.  If this weird motion works (and it certainly seems to) then more power to him.  You’ll notice, by the way, that he never makes a throwing error when pressured or on the run.  At least not that I can remember.  Boswell Agrees.

Q: Should/Will the Nats go after Jose Reyes this off season?

A: Should they?  I don’t think so; depends on if they think Desmond has any future or if they can move over Espinosa and call up Lombardozzi.  It’d be foolish to spend $12M/year on a leadoff hitter who is only slightly better than your $440k/year in-house options.  Will they?  We’ll see.   Boswell thinks they shouldn’t and lists a few more good reasons.

Q: Would you trade all the National’s young pitchers for the Orioles’?

A: No.  Way.  Baltimore has a habit of destroying young arms lately.  And I like the upside of our slew of prospects versus theirs.  Boswell says no way.

Q: Zimm/Morse/Werth in 2012 vs Zimm/Dunn/Willingham in 2010?

A: Offense only?  You take the latter.  That was three guys with OPS’s in the 140s back to back to back.  Werth did it in his contract year but not before or since really.  Morse is a breakout guy this year; can he continue?  Can Zimmerman stay healthy?

(editor’s note: this post started with an email conversation amongst friends, where the Phillies fan amongst us didn’t think Rollin’s steal was “bad baseball.”)

The Giants and Phillies mixed it up in Friday 8/5’s game, a 9-2 victory (box/gamer) for Philadelphia that featured some “unwritten rule” discussion over the actions of Jimmy Rollins and subsequently Giant’s reliever Ramon Ramirez.

Here was the situation: the Phillies had just scored 2 runs to extend their lead to 8-2 in the top of the 6th inning.  The Giant’s starter Jonathan Sanchez had been knocked out of the game, and reliever Ramirez gave up a 2-run scoring single to Rollins.  Rollins promptly stole second base, and the next pitch plunked batter Shane Victorino.

Honestly, I believe it was a deserving retaliation by Ramirez and/or the Giants.  Stealing with a lead is a sliding scale; had Rollins done it in the 2nd inning with a 3-run lead it wouldn’t have gone punished, but the 6th is iffy with a 6 run lead.  Essentially, when the game appears to be out of reach, major leaguers have a tendency to just “play out the string” and expect this “conceding behavior” to be matched by the winning team.  Having been on both sides of many blowouts, there’s definitively a list of things you don’t do with a massive lead.  Steals and bunts are definitely out.  Curtailing aggressive play (taking extra bases, take-out slides, etc), swinging at 3-0 pitches and swinging out of your ass trying to hit homers are all examples of no-nos.  Certainly admiring homers and showing up a pitcher is a no-no, at nearly any point in the game (the Weaver incident earlier this week).

My Phillies friend apologist countered that the game was still close enough, that the Giants still had 4 at-bats, and the steal (though borderline) was justified.

Here’s some stats on the Giant’s offense and their capabilities of coming back, courtesy of baseball-reference.com:

• The Giants are 0-8 when giving up 8 or more runs in a game.
• They’re 12-26 when trailing after the 5th, no matter how many runs they’re down.  And,
• The largest comeback they’ve had all season in being behind 4 runs.

I’d like to find some stats on how often baseball teams make up X-run leads, but my google skills are failing me.  I’m pretty certain though that the likelihood of making up 6 run deficits is pretty slim.  Tom Boswell has done research that shows that about half of all baseball victories feature more runs scored by the winning team in ONE inning than the loser scores the entire game (his “Big Bang” theory, based on his own research).  Sure enough, the Phillies scored more runs in the 5th inning (four) than the Giants did the entire game (two).

For me, the play was bush league, broke the unwritten rules of showing up your competitors and/or running up the score, and the retaliation was not only deserved but expected.

What do you think?

I whiffed on the last couple of Boswell’s chats, finding time enough to read them but not to write a 2000 word missive in response.  Boswell’s on vacation this week, so here’s Dave Sheinin covering for him and doing a chat.

As always, I paraphrase the “questions” for levity and clarity, and I answer each question myself before reading Dave’s answer.

Q: Has the game passed by Davey Johnson?

A: Camera shots certainly seem to catch Johnson in an “old man” stupor from time to time.  I don’t think Baseball is like Football in that older generations of coaches can’t compete b/c the game has passed them by.  But I don’t sense that Johnson is really that in tune with the game right now.  The team has swooned since he took over, he has lost more than his share of 1-run games (fairly or unfairly set at the foot of the manager).  In reality this is a longer-term answer, meaning we’ll only be able to tell after he runs the team for a while.  Sheinin says that whoever replaced Riggleman was destined for a fall, and that he’s ok with everything Johnson has done thus far.

Q: Is Strasburg going to hit Potomac during his rehab trip, or are they gonna get screwed over again?

A: Good question; I’d say this time he appears for Potomac at some point, as the Nats had Wang travel up and down the system to get starts on his regular rotation.  There doesn’t seem to be a need to keep Strasburg out of Potomac’s awful outfield.  Sheinin agrees.

Q: How would you handicap the odds of the following trades happening by the deadline: 1. Nats trade Marquis 2. Nats trade Livan 3. Nats trade Clippard 4. Nats trade Desmond 5. Nats trade other(s) 6. Nats acquire Colby Rasmus 7. Nats acquire BJ Upton 8. Nats acquire Michael Bourn 9. Nats acquire other CF.

A: I’d put them in this order of most likely: 1, 5 (Coffey), large gap, 3, 2, 7, 9 (Span), 8, 4, 6.

I think Marquis and Coffey are definitely moving.  I don’t think anyone would want Livan.  I have a hard time thinking that the team is going to move Clippard or Desmond.  Rasmus probably goes elsewhere.  Bourn is a lesser version of Upton, so we’d probably want Upton over anyone else.

Sheinin thinks that the most likely players to get traded is Coffey, and doesn’t think Marquis is going anywhere.

Q: Do you think Riggleman intentionally left the team at its “high-water” mark?

A: Absolutely.  Riggleman was frustrated by the lack of communication from his boss (Rizzo), frustrated by his lame-duck status and probably was reading the tea-leaves that he’d be let to just play out his contract and let someone else enjoy the spoils of his work in 2012.  So he gave the team an ultimatum at the time that best suited his negotiaitons.  Rizzo called his bluff and Riggleman walked.  I know most believe Riggleman acted selfishly, but I put a ton of blame on Rizzo’s poor handling of the situation.  One conversation probably could have avoided all the negative press that followed Riggleman’s departure.  Sheinin thinks Riggleman knew exactly what he was doing.

Q: Would you trade both Clippard and Norris to get Denard Span?

A: No, I would not.  I think the Nats value the combined value of both those players, both under team control for at least 4 years (Clippard) to at least 6 in Norris’ case.  Span is decent, but for that price i’d shoot for Upton (who has more power and steals more bases).  Sheinin dodged the question, stating that Span wasn’t really in play.  Which he wasn’t at 11am monday, but since then rumors have floated about the Twins and Nats talking about him.

Q: What kind of pitch count will Wang be on?  What would be an expected first outing?

Probably nothing too conservative; he’s been rehabbing for literally a year and a half.  But if he reaches 100 pitches in an outing i’d be surprised.  I think a 5ip 2run outing would be a major success.  Sheinin doesn’t expect much.

Q: What will the team do with Gorzelanny, who seemingly is making way for Wang in the rotation?  DL?

A: The team can’t demote him (options), so they probably demote Detwiler and have Gorzelanny be the new long-man out of the pen.  At least until we trade a starter or someone goes down with an injury.  He may have an “invented injury” all of a sudden and go onto the 15-day DL.  Certainly the team has been shady in the past in the way it handles DL trips, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this happen here.  Sheinin says that teams hide injuries all the time for competitive purposes.

Q: Why is Drew Storen’s name in trade rumors?

A: Good question.  I have a very hard time believing the Nats would consider trading Storen unless it was to obtain someone marquee.  It may be that other teams are asking about him and that news is leaking out. Sheinin does say that relievers are fungible, as I’ve said many times, and you never say never to a trade possibility.

Q: What makes more sense in 2012: Morse in LF or at 1B?

A: Makes more sense: keeping Morse at first and Nix in left and not messing with what has turned into a very healthy middle-of-the-order for this team.  Reality: LaRoche isn’t going to get traded and we don’t want to light $8M on fire, so he’s going back to 1B.  Which means Morse is back in left and Nix is left out.  Sheinin says a lot can happen between now and next spring, like us signing Prince Fielder and making this whole conversation moot.

Q: If you had to bet right now, is Desmond or Lombardozzi starting in the infield next year?

A: I’d bet Desmond starts there and is given one more year to figure it out.  Lombardozzi starts in AAA and if he earns his way up, he earns his way up.  Sheinin agrees, but says that Desmond needs to start producing or risk losing his job.

Q: Why did Riggleman call out Boswell during his departure?

A: Probably because Boswell wrote a ton of not-so-nice pieces essentially proving just how bad a manager Riggleman has been over his career.  You’d probably be pissed as well.  Sheinin thinks that Riggleman’s rant was misguided.

Q: Who starts in CF for this team in 2012?

A: Who knows.  It really seems like this team is in the market for a CF, so right now i’d say its a FA to be named.  I don’t think it will be Ankiel or Bernadina.  Ankiel parts ways with the team and Bernadina battles with Nix to be the 4th outfielder.  Sheinin agrees.

Q: Which team will regret their big contract more?  Werth/Nats, Howard/Phillies, Jeter/Yankees or A-Rod/Yankees?

A: Probably the Nats.  Howard is a big bat in the middle of a talented lineup and it more or less goes unnoticed that he’s not producing at his normal levels in 2011.  The Yankees have so many $40M mistakes that its comical, but the A-Rod contract in particular looks like it will be a massive albatross in a few years (A-Rod is guaranteed $20M in 2017, when he’ll turn 42 mid-season).  Sheinin agrees.

Here’s Boswell’s 7/5/11 chat.  As always, I read the question, write my own answer then interpret Boswell’s answer.  All questions are paraphrased from the chatroom for clarity here.

Q: Should the Nats move Espinosa to Short, making room for Rendon?

A: I believe the Nats may eventually consider moving Danny Espinosa to shortstop to make way for either Anthony Rendon but perhaps Steve Lombardozzi in the near future.  For the beginning of 2012 season?  I doubt it.  Yes, Ian Desmond has been hitting ridiculously badly, but he’s a plus defender at Short with an absolute gun of an arm.  He’s cut way down on errors and mental mistakes.  We all believe Espinosa can handle the position (he was a grade-A short stop at Long Beach State), but the right answer may be to give Desmond one more full season before pulling the trigger.  Any move would be done in a spring training presumably.  (Boswell more or less agrees, saying Lombardozzi will be a full time MLBer, Desmond moves too much in the box, and that Espinosa has better hands but not as much range).

Q: Did Harper skip high-A because of Potomac’s field situation?

A: Great question.  Personally I believe Potomac’s field disaster factored into the situation.  Perhaps part protection of Bryce Harper (who was promoted to AA over the weekend and went 2/3 in his AA debut), part penalization of the ownership/management of the  Potomac franchise (which they must believe has botched this badly, to be giving away home dates).  Of course there is the plain fact that Harper, despite his young age, held his own against AA-calibre talent and higher in 2010’s Arizona Fall League and he may just be ready for AA.  (Boswell punts on the question, quoting Rizzo who said “the field is fine, it had nothing to do with it.”  A non-answer.)

Q: What are the chances Michael Morse wins the “last man standing” all-star vote?

A: I’ll say slim, based on who he’s up against (here’s a link to the voting).  Ethier, Helton, Victorino, and Ian Kennedy are the candidates.  I’d guess that either Victorino or Helton wins, though Ethier is a deserving candidate.  Nobody’s heard of Michael Morse unfortunately.  (Boswell thinks Philly fans will vote in Victorino).

Q: Is Ryan Zimmerman’s new throwing motion working?

A: It seems not; if anything its causing even more problems.  Zimmerman used to make most of his errors on relatively routine throws over to first; if he’s making a throw under duress it is usually spot on.  So the new motion is designed to remove the scatter-arm throws.  But now, instead of making a routine throw and it getting into his head, he’s got this new motion into his head.  I can’t see how its an improvement.  For me when playing the answer was always to go to a side arm motion to gain accuracy but I was playing from middle-infield positions that didn’t require long, overhand throws like what the third baseman has to do.  (Boswell thinks it is working and that Zimmerman needs a bit longer to get comfortable with it).

Q: Was it too early, too late or the right time to promote Harper?

A: From a productivity standpoint it was probably too late; he clearly owned how-A pitching after just a few weeks.  But, from a “learning how to be a baseball player” standpoint its just right.  Finish out a half, a playoff-run, get a bunch of road trips in and get used to playing day after day.  Now he can move up and get challenged by better pitching.  Personally I would have put him in high-A for an incremental improvement.  Run him up to AA if he dominated in Potomac, else start him at AA next year with an eye to move him quickly to AAA.  I think there’s value in growing into your role.  (Boswell says it was the right time to promote, but not to which level, and then compares Harper’s minor league splits to A-Rods and Ken Griffey Jr’s).

Q: How much credit should we give Rizzo the GM for 4 specific moves that paid off (Ramos-Capps, Willingham trade, letting Dunn walk and failing to get Greinke)?

A: I give Rizzo some good, some bad for his moves over the past year or so.  The Ramos for Capps trade was spectacular.  The Guzman trade (something for nothing) was quality.  His purchase of Bixler has turned out well.  I think we got fleeced on the Willingham deal frankly and think this team could have used the offense.  Dunn was never going to stay here so I don’t know how much credit you can give Rizzo for purposely picking up the draft picks.  He overpaid badly for Werth (for reasons that have been discussed ad-naseum here and were bigger than just the player).  I liked the acquisition of Gorzelanny for what we gave up.  His two rule5 draft picks were garbage.  Cora and Nix on minor league contracts has turned out great.  He got a decent AA starter for Gonzalez but a middling low-A infielder for Morgan.  He wanted and was going to pay for Greinke, who i think is vastly over-rated, had one good season and is by no means an “ace” in this league.  He’s a solid guy but not a $100m pitcher.  (Boswell points out the Hanrahan-Burnett deal is looking bad for the Nats; I’ll defend the Nats there since Hanrahan was SO bad for us.  Boswell also mentions Aaron Crow for some reason; that non-signing was 110% on Bowden, not Rizzo).

Q: Are Nats buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

A: This answer will vary day by day between now and 7/31 honestly.  If the Nats go on a 5 game losing streak they’re selling like mad. Right this moment, they’re probably doing nothing, stuck into inactivity by virtue of their .500 record and proximity to the wild card race.  (Boswell agrees, saying the team’s record on July 28th is what matters).

Q: Will the Nats over pay and sign Marquis and Livan for next season?

A: God I hope not.  Marquis should be jettisoned to make way for Strasburg’s return.  Livan is worth 1.5-2m/per, but not much more.  If he demands more cut him loose.  Livan at this point is merely a holding over pitcher until our farm system prospects pan out.  (Boswell seems to think that Detwiler could make an able replacement for Marquis, either this August/September or later on).

Q: Is Werth unable to get around on fastballs?

A: I don’t have enough video evidence to offer an opinion.  Boswell says he’s just trying too hard, his mechanics are out of whack.

Q: Thoughts on the all-star rosters?

A: Havn’t even looked at them.  Looking them up to comment here.  Don’t care really; the all-star rosters will always have too many Red Sox, too many Yankees and too many Asians from ballot-box stuffing.  I can’t stand the “every team must be represented” issue, which dilites the team and gives players cheap all star appearances.  I think the fact that the world series home field advantage depends on this exhibition is beyond ridiculous.  So doing a 2500 word column nit picking the all-star selections is just July column filler for most baseball writers.  For me its like complaining about the BCS: its never going to change.  Let other people bitch about the fact that Derek Jeter has basically been awful this year, not the best.

I will say that the manager’s selecting the pitchers is ridiculous.  Yes Vogelsong has had a great season but he’s not who the fans want to see in the all star game, nor is he one of the best 15 pitchers in the league.  Picking middle relievers?  Ridiculous as well.

(Boswell says he likes the rosters and won’t waste an answer on what could give him an easy column!)

Q: How much money is Pujols’ injury- and poor-performance season costing him?  Would he take a 1-year deal to regain value?
A: Great question.  I think Pujols poor season has already cost him a shot at a 10-yr/$300M contract that many spoke of.  He’s clearly going to lose years and value.  I think he deserves a 7yr deal that pays him more per-annum than A-rod, and it may be what he’s shooting for.  I do not think he’ll take a one-year deal.  Too much can go wrong, too risky.  Even if he doesn’t get the years and money he seeks, you cannot blow the opportunity to guarantee hundreds of millions of dollars.  (Boswell wouldn’t even give him 7 years right now).

Q: Could Lombardozzi come up and force a replacement of Desmond in 2011?

A: No way.  There’s little value in yanking Desmond in mid-august, forcing Espinosa to move to shortstop with no work all year and possibly disrupt a Rookie-of-the-Year season AND do the 40-man move to add Lombardozzi just for a few games in the bigs.   (Boswell answered by defending Desmond, calling him a 10-year career shortstop.  He needs to start hitting though).

Q: Comments on the Soriano “hit” that scored 2 runs?

A: An official scorer just can’t give Bernadina an error on a ball that drops in front of him, despite it clearly being a fielding mistake.  Its one more piece of evidence showing how inaccurate ERAs are for pitchers.  Zimmermann had Soriano popped up and was out of the inning; suddenly he’s given up 2 earned runs that he didn’t deserve.  To me, it looked like Bernadina lost the ball in the over-cast sky.  (Boswell points out that the play perfectly encapsulates why the team doesn’t think Bernadina is the long term answer in center.  Well, duh, I could have told you that was the case long before this play!)

Q: Why aren’t the Nats hitting?/How much accountability does Rick Eckstein have in this situation?

A: Honestly, I’ve never thought that a hitting coach really could impact what a major leaguer could do.  Be it out of respect, or lack thereof.  If everyone thinks Werth’s mechanics are out of whack, why hasn’t he fixed them?  Its an easy video fix right?

Werth is trying too hard.  Espinosa’s babip is awful.  Desmond just isn’t that good.  Morse is good but has holes that pundits/scouts like Keith Law think are going to get exposed.  Zimmerman is just getting back in the saddle.  Willingham and Dunn (despite what they’re doing in 2010) were stable, high OBP forces in this lineup and when they left, there was major disruption.  LaRoche has always been a slow starter, complicated (as we eventually found out) by a bad shoulder injury.  (Boswell ducked the question as I have, but gives some interesting analysis of just how not-so-bad the team really is offensively right now).

Q: Why is Nyjer Morgan suddenly good again?  Same question for Kearns, Felipe Lopez and (possibly) Werth?

A: Morgan needed a change of scenery, and has taken advantage of it.  Same goes for Hanrahan, and in that respect that trade has worked out well for Pittsburgh.  Kearns never wanted to be traded here; he is from Kentucky and liked it in Cincinnati.  Once he got his balloon payment here he never earned the contract.  Lopez is a special case; a good player with an awful attitude, and he’s earned a one-way ticket out of several towns by now.  I wouldn’t put Werth in any of these classes; he’s hard-nosed, plays hard, doesn’t play dirty, doesn’t show-boat, and takes his craft seriously.  (Boswell just says that change of scenery is sometimes good, without throwing (especially) Lopez under the bus).

Q: Why is Sean Burnett still on the roster?

A: True, his 2011 numbers have been pretty bad.  But one really bad game can make 3 weeks worth of good look awful.  Look at his game logs; he’s been pretty good lately except for one or two blow ups.  The team needs a loogy, Burnett actually gives them more than just a one-out guy, and he was pretty good last year.  Way too early to give up on him, to say nothing of the fact that there’s very little in AAA or even AA to replace him.  We’re still trying to replace our actual LOOGY Slaten, signing JC Romero and possibly looking at Severino or even Chico at some point.  (Boswell agrees).

Q: What are we going to do with Rendon?

A: Wait for him to prove he belongs, then find a spot.  He hasn’t signed yet, could get injured again and be a total bust, or he could hit like the 2nd coming of Alex Rodriguez in the minors and shoot up to earn MLB at bats inside a year.  If he forces his way onto the roster then you make room for him.  Install him at 2nd, move Espinosa to short.  Or, put Rendon in left and keep your current MI.  Maybe Zimmerman wants out of town after 2013 and Rendon naturally moves to third.  Maybe the entire team gets hit by a bus and we start over from scratch.  Way too much can happen with minor league prospects to make intelligent predictions til they get to AAA.  (Boswell’s answer rambled on about the state of the team … saying we’re much further along than intimated in the question).

Q: Why are the crowds booing Jayson Werth?

A: Probably because he’s in an extended slump, combined with a massive paycheck that most of us now have been told is vastly over-paying him.  Nobody likes it when an overpaid co-worker struggles with his assignments; it makes you really question why you’re working at that job in the first place.  Trust me, if he starts hitting the boo-ing will stop.   (Boswell kinda understands the crowd’s displeasure with Werth right now).

Q: Is Werth miscast as a team leader?

A: Perhaps.  I think clearly in Philadelphia he was one of many hitting cogs in a powerful lineup and they covered for each other.  Now, he’s much more in focus (especially with LaRoche’s issues and Zimmerman’s absence).  However, does he HAVE to be a leader by virtue of his contract?  No.  Zimmerman is a natural leader, as is Desmond.  We have veteran pitching that can take the media brunt.  But lets be honest; we don’t live in NYC with a 24-hour yankees news cycle.  There’s, what, 5 beat reporters in total for this team (Ladson, Goessling, Kilgore, Zuckerman and Comack), so that’s not a ton of people asking you questions night after night.  (Boswell agrees, Werth doesn’t have good media presence).

Q: Did the Lerner’s err in naming Davey Johnson as the new manager?

A: Can’t say just quite yet.  Johnson was clearly an excellent manager in his time.  Has the game passed him by?  Unlike in professional football, where clearly Joe Gibbs was exposed as being too old and too out of touch with the modern game during his return to the sidelines for the Washington Redskins, Baseball strategy and management moves at a slower pace.  Since Johnson last managed, there are no major changes in the rules of the game or the basic strategy.  If anything, the major change in the game lies in the renewed emphasis on defense and pitching in the steroid-less game.  Statistics and analysis has vastly increased in importance, but Johnson was already ahead of the curve in those departments when he was managing (and he was a Math major to boot, meaning he should not be wary of such heavy numerical analysis in the sport).  That all being said, only time will tell.  What was the team lacking under Riggleman that Johnson can bring to the table?  Perhaps the answer is basic; accomplishment and veteran respect.  (Boswell ridiculed the question and picked at its points, as opposed to talking about what Johnson may bring to the table).

Q: Do the Nationals ushers need to do more to enforce fan etiquette at the stadium?

A: Probably.  The questioner complains about people being allowed to move freely mid-inning.  I don’t notice a ton while I go to games, because our season tickets are relatively close to the field and the movement here and there isn’t too bad to notice.  We did experience a rather concerning issue on 7/4; we apparently had duplicate tickets to others that we found sitting in our seats.  We never really asked to see the tickets in question (not wanting to irk the woman sitting in our seats, who was clearly combative).  But the usher mentioned that the day before he saw no less than FOUR tickets issued for the same seat.  That doesn’t make any sense to me really; the seats are all season ticket-owned seats in the 100 sections.  Something weird is going on.  (Boswell says the questioner makes good sense).

Several years ago, I began a rant about the Nats payroll levels vis-a-vis our market size that essentially continues through to today.  Washington DC as a market is clearly a large market:

• We are 7th in total population (when measured by Metropolitan Statistical Areas); just behind Miami/Ft. Lauderdale and Dallas and just ahead of  Houston and Detroit.
• We are 9th in terms of DMA TV households (just behind Atlanta/Boston and just ahead of Houston and Detroit again).

And yet, in 2010 we had the 23rd ranked payroll of the 30 teams, spending just $66M in salary (2010 opening day number).  Meanwhile the teams located in comparable cities spent much much more.  Houston had a $92m payroll, Detroit $122M, Atlanta $84M.  Miami and Boston are outliers for separate and obvious reasons (Boston essentially services the entire NE area while the Florida Marlins owners are the worst examples of owners taking advantage of the revenue sharing system in the league).

According to my estimates (available here or via the link in the Nats Creations section to the right), the Nats (as of publication) have $29M committed for 2011, and likely will have a payroll that is around $46.5M once all arbitration cases are settled.  Notice this is almost exactly $20M less than in 2010 (Dunn at $12M and Guzman at $8M neatly equal the delta).

Clearly, the Nats need to be increasing payroll.  I’m pretty sure this is one of the reasons Kasten left the team frankly; I don’t think he saw eye to eye with the Lerners in terms of payroll outlay.  Certainly not in terms of the 2009 opening day roster team, which was an abomination of a roster and successfully gutted the season ticket base and fan satisfaction leading into the new stadium.

BUT, and this is a large But, we should not just arbitrarily spend money just to spend it.  So we have a conundrum.  With Vazquez and De La Rosa off the market, the FA pitcher market is, as Jayson Stark put it, a disaster area.  With the exception of an experimental flyer on Webb, I wouldn’t want a single guy left.  Jon Heyman ranked the top 15 or so FAs and it has to be one of the weakest FA markets ever.  Of the hitters out there, we definitely could use them (especially Werth in right and Crawford in center, as well as the probable eventual signing of Pena for 1B), but the question is, will they come to Washington?  Why come to the Nats if a perennial playoff contender comes calling with more money and longer guaranteed contracts?  Isn’t that why Dunn just left?

Tom Boswell put out a post expressing some worry about the Nats and this off season, only somewhat alluding to the payroll issue.  And I agree.  Who knew that we’d be seeing a spending spree this off season, after two relatively frugal off-seasons preceding it.  Now that Dunn has left, one has to wonder what the team really should do.

I’m afraid the Nats are stuck frankly.  We have money to spend, and NEED to spend money to show some good will towards a fan base that clearly sees the Lerners as incompetent, penny pinching and too cheap to really deserve a $600M baseball team.  But, who are we going to spend this money on?  At this point the best moves seem to be to try to acquire guys via trade ( Greinke or Garza come to mind) but these guys will cost us what few prospects we actually have right now.  Is it worth it to give up 4 upper end guys to acquire 2 years of Greinke’s services?

As much as I hate to say it, I believe the best course right now is to NOT spend money, play out 2011 with what we have (and perhaps a couple of lower end, one-year FAs) and regroup for 2012.  Let our prospects play and get experience, find out if the likes of Espinosa, Desmond, Morse, Morgan, Bernadina, Ramos, Zimmermann, Maya and the rest of the bullpen are really quality guys.  Trade Willingham for more kids. Wait for Strasburg to get healthy. And go firing into NEXT off season with a vengeance.

In our first of a 3-part post, we talked about the arbitration cases that the Nats face.  Some of those decisions are already being made and that post has been updated.  Now, lets talk about the free agents.

Player	What Should Washington Do?/What WILL We do?
Dunn, Adam	We should resign him, but Rizzo seems dead set against it.  Offer him arbitration and let him walk.
Batista, Miguel	Valuable rubber arm in BP; I would resign him to a simliar 1 year deal in 2011.
Harris, Willie	Let him go.  Declining value, Morse a better utility option.
Mench, Kevin	Let him go; awful september numbers.  Perhaps ML FA in AAA
Kennedy, Adam	Decline club option and let him go.  No need for 2nd baseman.

Clearly, the Adam Dunn decision will be critical to the direction of the team and our offense next year.  As noted above, personally I think he needs to be re-signed.  The team’s actions all year (plus Tom Boswell‘s repeated comments about how the front office has bungled the negotiations) seem to indicate though that we’re content with getting the compensatory picks and moving another direction.  If we decide to let him go, I’d prefer to sign someone like Adam LaRoche, a player who plays decent defense and shows a good bat.  I don’t think Carlos Pena (as is frequently rumored) is a good choice, and there’s sentiment in the Tampa Bay community that he may stay on in Tampa and try to improve on an awful 2010 season.  But, most pundits seem to think he’s coming here.

We also could become more creative and put someone like Josh Willingham, Michael Morse or even a supposedly healthy Jesus Flores at first as a stop gap until one of our prospects like Chris Marrero or even, say it isn’t so, Bryce Harper is ready to come up.  I mean come on, you “hide” defensive liabilities at first base.  If someone is 6’4″ and has any fielding ability they should be good enough to play the position.

Moving on to other FAs to be the decisions are relatively easy.  Harris, Mench, and Kennedy are gone.  None batted well enough to even consider and we have more able (and cheaper) minor leaguers ready to come up and serve as backups.  The last FA to be Miguel Batista proved to be a great asset to the bullpen at relatively little cost and would be worth bringing back.  We signed him last year on a non-guaranteed contract but guaranteeing him $1M wouldn’t be a huge risk.

Now, given the above, what is in store in the FA market?  I know i’ve heard lots of noise about how the Nats are going after Cliff Lee but I just don’t see that happening.  Here’s what I do see them doing:

1. Getting one or two pitchers.  Rizzo has a history with Brandon Webb, Arizona has blown enough cash on the guy, and he may be ready to come back.  We sign him to a one year deal and try to get lucky.  I’d also be happy with trading for one of Tampa’s spare starters (Garza, Shields), acquiring Vazquez (who I think is an NL, non-NY market pitcher and could return to his 2009 Atlanta form) or a De La Rosa type (hard thrower and can get Ks).  Most pundits have us signing Vazquez, some have us getting Webb.

2. Get a FA first baseman: I’ve previously said I like Adam LaRoche.  Rizzo likes Carlos Pena.  We’ll see what happens.  There’s lots of teams looking for first basemen, so the competition for these guys may force our hand into a guy we don’t want.

3. Find a utility player: we need a better version of Willie Harris.  May come from the minors as a prospect but probably not.  We need a guy who can play 2nd/ss or 3b in a pinch.

Less Likely:

4. Sign or acquire a marquee outfielder.  I’d love to see someone like Werth or Ross in right field, which could move Bernadina to center, allow us to rid ourselves of Morgan and then use Maxwell as the 4th outfielder.  We could also acquire someone like Rasmus or Ellsbury, put them in center, dump Morgan and go with Willingham-new CF-Bernadina.  Or we could use a Morse/Bernadina platoon in Right with Bernadina occasionally spelling Morgan in center (though they’re both lefty and both hit relatively the same, so that may not actually work).

I don’t really see us going after any bullpen help or a closer.  As Zuckerman once said, we’re remarkably set on 2011 positions despite being a 90-loss team.   We had a good bullpen last year and have a couple of decent looking reliever prospects in Carr and Kimball.  I could see a 2011 bullpen with Clippard, Burnett, Storen, Stammen, Balester, Slaten and Carr.  Or substitute some of our arbitration/fa guys for Stammen and Balester.

I’ve said for a while that the Nats need to spend like a mid market team.  $90M payroll at a minimum so as not to insult the fanbase.  Perhaps this off season we’ll see it.  They only have a paltry $24M committed for 2011 right now and, while that number will increase with potentially 13 arbitration cases, a huge chunk of last year’s payroll is now gone (just Guzman and Dunn consisted of nearly 1/3 of our 2010 payroll).  So, lets see some FA dollars get spent!

When the Nationals signed Cuban defector Yunesky Maya in July, we thought we were getting a seasoned international competitor, a professional pitcher who would be the next in a good line of comrades who have made an impact in the majors.

After watching and commenting on  his MLB debut, I was impressed.  Maya wasn’t overpowering but showed a great variety of pitches and a fearlessness on the mound.

However, his fourth start yesterday (box/gamer) demonstrated the same issue that plagued him in his first three starts; the big inning.  In each start now, he’s had one bad inning amongst several good ones.  Yesterday he was unlucky to give up an unearned run in the 3rd, but then gave up 4 runs in the 6th and was yanked.  The crushing blow was a no-doubter homer from Atlanta’s shortstop Alex Gonzalez on a first pitch hanging curveball.  Suddenly the Nats are down 5-0 and have given up 4 runs in an inning, a relatively insurmountable score because of the “big bang” theory of baseball scores (see this Boswell chat for more details, but analysis of box scores over the years shows that in more than half of baseball games, the winning team scores more runs in ONE inning than the losers score the entire game).

This is why these big innings are troubling.  You give up 3 or 4 runs in an inning with an offensively challenged team like the Nats (playing yesterday without Espinosa, Zimmerman, and without original #5 hitter Willingham) are almost always going to lose.  Sure enough, Derek Lowe shut them down for 6 relatively innocuous innings and the Nats never scored at all.

I was at the game yesterday, which makes analysis of Maya’s stuff rather difficult.  All we can see is the mph on the pitch to guess whether it was a fastball, curve or change.  Maya didn’t seem to be throwing hard (averaging 88-89, maxing out 91 or so per yesterday’s pitch f/x data), and certainly wasn’t getting strikeouts (1 K in 25 batters faced, not even getting his counterpart on strikes).  His pitching coach was interviewed though and commented that Maya has found MLB hitters to be far more patient than in Cuba or International competitions, and that MLB umpires are not giving him pitches on the corners.  He seems to be nibbling, not throwing strikes or trusting his stuff.  It also goes without saying that he is still in early season/spring training mode, having only made his professional debut for us on August 13th.  Still, it is hard not to be concerned about his performance thus far.  Did we waste $6M on him?

Side note about the unearned run in the 3rd: Gonzalez made a fantastic diving stop with guys on 1st and 2nd and 2 outs, only to see Kennedy failing to cover 2nd base for the easy force out.  Possibly a mental error but more likely a result of the exaggerated pull shift the Nats employed on Atlanta’s catcher McCann.  So he forced a throw to first from his knees that short-hopped Dunn.  Dunn ineptly missed the throw, it got by him and a run scored. This error was then attributed to Gonzalez, who gets penalized AFTER making a great play and to try to make up for his teammate’s mental error.  A better first baseman makes that play easily.  This is just another example of how unfair our basic fielding stats are these days and how you just can’t measure some things in a box score.

On the same play, as the ball was getting past Dunn, the Atlanta runner running from first (Heyward) blew through the stop sign and was thrown out by 20 feet …. so he did what came naturally to major leaguer,s recently; he tried to bowl over our catcher (Ramos) instead of sliding or giving himself up.  Ramos pulled an “ole” move, kinda dodging the collision attempt and getting the tag in.  I realize that in some cases a catcher blocking the plate gives the runner little choice but to try to dislodge the ball by barreling into the opposing player.  But on a play like this I think the choice to try to deliberately harm the catcher needs some league retribution.  Heyward, to his credit immediately apologized to Ramos for his decision, which probably prevented further retribution.

Lastly, read this nugget in Nats News Network, where Riggleman has said that Olsen takes too long to warm up and thus can’t really be used out of the bullpen.  In other words, be prepared for a non-tender on December 1st.

At the risk of sounding TOO optimistic (like perhaps the ever rosy Thomas Boswell in today’s WP column), Jordan Zimmermann looked awfully good last night in his 2nd start back (gamer and box score from nationals.com).  He went 6 complete innings, gave up 1 hit (a double by Sanchez that was erased on a great outfield assist from Bernadina), struck out 9 and finished on 86 pitches before being lifted.  He could have gone more, but why would you at this point in the season with a guy coming back from injury?

Zimmermann’s effort is probably the 2nd best/2nd most dominant pitching performance of the year (behind Strasburg‘s 14k debut 6/8/10) from any Nats starter.  Per the pitch f/x data he hit 94 once, touched 93 a few times and averaged 91.79 on his 65 fastballs on the night.

(side note; just goes to show you can NOT trust the stadium Guns, ever, as they had Zimmermann on 96 in the first inning several times, which means that the stadium gun was at least 3mph faster than reality).

It is hard to gauge the breakdown of pitches though; per the f/x data he only threw one changeup, yet was quoted in the gamer as saying that his changeup felt great.  I’m guessing that some of the pitches classified as “sliders” were in reality changeups, and that the variation of speeds between his slider and curve screwed up the pitch classification.  Either way, his curve was definitely faster and less loopy than his previous start.  By pounding so many fastballs he showed that he has dominant enough stuff to challenge a pretty decent hitting Marlins team.  Zero walks and 86 pitches to finish 6 innings means he had pretty good control.

Unless the Nats are specifically NOT calling changeups after what happened to Strasburg?  That’d be a bad precedent.

On the season, Zimmermann now has 13ks and 1 walk in 10 innings.  That’s something to build on.  I’ve always thought that best-case Zimmermann had the capabilities to be a great #2 starter on a good team, and performances like last night are indicitave of that and much more.