Nationals Arm Race

Zuckerman has a good article about the conundrum the nats are about to face with respect to all the starting pitchers they have coming back or soon-to-be ready to pitch in the Majors.

Current rotation: Livan, Detwiler, Stammen, Olsen, Lannan.  In roughly that order of performance.

– Strasburg is coming back from the DL next tuesday and probably sends Stammen back to the minors for the rest of the year, possibly forever.  Stammen is just to inconsistent to depend on.  He’ll go 3 straight fantastic games then blow up.

– Marquis is soon to be off the rehab assignment (he’s now got 5 minor league starts and you only get 30 days of rehab before having to be recalled or optioned).  I don’t know who gives way for him; perhaps Olsen since Olsen has been optioned already this year and hasn’t exactly lit it up since his return from injury.

– Zimmermann has been removed from the 60-day and has been optioned to AAA; he probably gets 3-4 more starts down there and replaces Strasburg when the phenom either gets his next DL stint or reaches his innings limit.

– Maya (our new Cuban signing) just got assigned to the gulf coast league, but he wasn’t signed to a $6M contract and placed on the 40-man to pitch in the minors.  This team needs to know how he’ll pitch next year.

– Wang has yet to even start throwing by all accounts and is looking more and more like a waste of money.  Too bad.

– Livan could be a post-waiver wire trade candidate to a contender needing a rubber-armed 5th starter.  We’ve done it before (netting Chico and Mock from Arizona in 2006) but that would be cold hearted for a guy who has saved the Nats season in terms of starting pitching.  But, we could always sign him again in the off season and his removal would pave the way for a slot for one of the above.

– Other SPs on the 40-man: Atilano (dl), Martin (dl), Mock (dl), Chico (27 and seemingly stuck in AAA), Martis (23 but having a mediocre AAA season) and Thompson (young but absolutely sucking in AA) all seem to be non-factors now and going forward. In fact I’d be surprised to see half these guys in the organization next year as we promote a bunch of slightly-older AA pitchers upwards (including the two starters we got from Texas for Guzman).

You can never have enough starting pitching.

Prediction/hope for 2011 rotation: Strasburg, Zimmermann, Marquis, Maya and then whoever wins from Detwiler Olsen and Lannan in spring training next eyar).

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Mike Morse.  2-3 with two homers last night in the pitcher friendly confines of Milwakuee.  Raises his season slash line figures to .338/.386/.636.  That’s a 1.022 ops and a 170 ops+ figure (by way of comparison, Votto is currently leading the NL in ops with 1.003).

He has 6 homers in 38 games, projecting to about 25 in a 150 game season.  He makes a ton of contact (15 ks in those same 38 games, projecting to only 60 or so in a full season).

I don’t get it.  We have a struggling center fielder/leadoff hitter in Morgan, and right next to him a surprising Bernadina character who has speed and a bit of power and could lead off/play centerfield.  Why aren’t we going Willingham-Bernadina-Morse in the outfield?  Lineup would be:

1. Bernadina
2. Guzman
3. Zimmerman
4. Dunn
5. Willingham
6. Morse
7. Desmond
8. Pudge
9. pitcher

That would give us ops+ guys over 100 in 3-4-5-6 spots, would give Willingham some protection, and would put a better producing guy at the top of the lineup.

Read through Stark’s espn chat yesterday and he took some Dunn trade questions.

Basically he says that the word on the street is that Dunn wants to stay but also wants a 4 year guaranteed contract.  He’s also hearing that the Nats have a “higher than
average” opinion of themselves and want to keep their 3-4-5 hitters in tact because we have so many arms coming back.  This agrees with Kasten’s recent comments that we’re “closer than you would think.”  And its hard to argue.  We’re puttering along with 3 guys in the rotation who would other wise be in AAA (Stammen, Atilano, Martin).
We never intended Livan to be our season savior; he was always meant to be a placeholder until Strasburg and Wang got healthy.

Now we’re looking at a situation by late august where we have way too many guys for the roatation.  Here’s a quick rundown on our former MLB arms:

• – Chico has two 7ip 0er performances in a row and (probably) makes a spot start sunday.
• – Detwiler is ready to come up (7 starts in the minors) and has been pitching well.
• – Olsen is on his 4th rehab start and might need a few more.
• – Marquis has 3 rehab starts but hasn’t looked great.  He says he feels good though. But post injury you have to think he is an option.
• – Zimmermann has pitched 13 scoreless innings with zero walks and 13 ks in high-A so far; you figure he has about 3 more starts before they have to make a decision on him too.
• – Wang looks like wasted money so far, but may be a bargain next year if he’s healthy at a cost controleld arbitration figure next year.
• – Lannan now has 6 starts in AA trying to “find” his sinker and so far he looks unsuccessful.  I hate to say it but Lannan may be completely forced out of the Nats starting picture.
• – and don’t forget new cuban signing Yuneski Maya, who most scouting reports say is MLB ready at 28.  Though, he apparently hasn’t pitched since last fall so hey may not get to the majors this year and will pitch in various minor leagues until sept.

The problem is that most of these guys are on rehab assignments.  Those can only last for 30 days (or about 6 starts).  Detwiler technically was activated and optioned (burning another option year for him, so now unless they get a medical waiver for a 4th option he has to pass through waivers to go back to the minors from here out; thanks Bowden for that 2007 callup!).

I guess the point is; a ton of pitching talent lays awaiting.  Maybe the Nats lick their wounds on this season, stand pat, resign Dunn to 3yrs $42M with a club option for the 4th that possibly vests with certain productivity in year three and focus on filling the hitting holes we’ll have in free agency.  And next year’s rotational competition looks tough.

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1. Atilano.  In 16 starts he’s now 6-7, 5.15 era, 1.49 whip.  The team is 6-10 in his starts. More telling: in 5 of his 16 starts now he’s given up as many earned runs as innings pitched.  That’s just not acceptable.  I realize there’s nobody really better (Chico?  Martis?) until one of Detwiler/Wang/Zimmermann/Marquis/Olsen recovers from injury but man.  Its brutal.

2. Leake.  Like this kid.  He looks a lot like Bronson Arroyo, even down to the stupid haircut. A ton of movement with a mlb-average fastball and decent control.  I know everyone is talking about the St. Louis rookie pitcher Garcia  but i like this guy.  Taken 2 picks before Storen; imagine if he had fallen to us at the #10 spot lastyear?

3. At what point in the season do we do what is obviously right for the team and stick Bernadina in center and Morse in right?  Morse is hitting .324/.375/.554 with 4 homers in 80 plate appearances.  That’s almost a 30 homer clip extrapolated out to a full season.  Have we found our right field solution by accident?  Bernadina is doing great; he has some power, hits for average, has some decent speed (7 sbs).  Maybe we stick him in center.  Morgan has easily the worst OPS+ on the team right now and has a .315 on base percentage at leadoff.  Unacceptable.  Even Guzman, he of the 4 walks in 600 plate appearances last season, has a better OBP this year.  And nearly as many walks as Morgan!

Nats currently on track for 69-93 season and the 7th overall pick.  And if we succumb to pressure and trade Dunn or Willingham or both, we may not score the rest of the season…