Nationals Arm Race

Welcome to the annual Rule 5 analysis post.

Lets take a look at who is eligible, who might get protected and make some predictions.  I’ve got the Nats 40-man roster at 30 now (as of 11/6/19, after all FAs and opt outs), so there’s plenty of room to add names and do their off-season work.  But, this team also needs to sign a bunch of FAs.  But there’s a slew of options-challenged players who might get waived this off-season.  So it’ll be an interesting Rule-5 year, and an interesting off-season in terms of roster manipulation.

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker (at its new location, now maintained by Luke Erickson) and the Big Board, and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts on who might merit protection.   Also incredibly useful is Roster Resource’s Nats Roster, which keeps track of options, rule-5 status and the like.

The quick Rule-5 rules for 2019; any 4-year college-aged draftee from 2016 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee/International Free Agent from 2015 or before is newly eligible this year, assuming they were at least 18 as of June 5th of that year.  There’s always a couple of guys who have specific birthdays that move them up or down one way or the other; i’ll depend on the Roster Resource rules and the Draft Tracker for exact details.

One last thing: here was our 2019 AFL Roster (also here at milb.com’s site).  Often times teams put Rule-5 guys onto AFL rosters to get one last look at them against top quality performance to see if they’re worth protecting.  Of course, this practice also puts a huge spotlight onto those players for opposing teams and their scouts…

• Rule 5 eligible: Sterling Sharp, Nick Banks, Andrew Lee, Jakson Reetz
• Not: Luis Garcia, Cole Freeman, Nick Raquet, Jacob Condra-Bogan, Pearson McMahon, K.J. Harrison

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Newly Eligible 2016 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

• Nick Banks, 2016 4th rounder LF who ascended to Harrisburg in 2019.  Decent numbers and hit pretty consistently from High-A to AA this year, but he’s a corner outfielder who hit one homer in 45 AA games.  You need more power than that to ascend.  I mention him here b/c of draft pedigree, not because I think he’s going to be protected.  I don’t think anyone could see him sticking on a MLB roster or competing with an aging ML veteran on a non-guaranteed deal.
• Armond Upshaw, 2016 11th round OF who is still in low-A; no jeopardy of getting picked.
• Jack Sundberg: 2016 26th round CF who repeated high-A for the third year in a row this season; no jeopardy of getting selected.
• Hayden Howard, 2016 12th round middle reliever who has good numbers but has never pitched above High-A ball; no real jeopardy of getting selected.
• Ryan Williamson, 2016 15th rounder who missed two full years with injury and is only in low-A; no real jeopardy of getting selected.
• Ben Braymer, 2016 18th rounder LHP starting pitcher who is one of the best draft picks (in terms of value vis-a-vis draft position) the team has had this decade.  He has now risen to AAA’s rotation … where he proceeded to get shelled thsi year (7.20 ERA in 13 starts).  Hard to tell if that’s the level or the PCL; i’m going to go latter since he maintained sub 3.00 ERAs at most of his stops as he ascended the minors.  I think its worth protecting a home grown lefty starter who they drafted and paid a paltry $100k signing bonus for.
• Jacob Howell: 2016 21st rounder, missed all of 2018 with injury, pitched mostly in Low-A this year; no real jeopardy of getting selected.
• Sterling Sharp: 2016 22nd rounder, missed a chunk of the 2019 season with injury, but improved year over year in his AA results and then went and pitched pretty well in the AFL (6 starts, 24 innings 4 runs allowed).   I think someone would take a flier on him, especially a tanking team (which now defines 1/3rd of the league).  I think he should be protected.

Its worth noting that the team already has added two guys from this class who likely would have been Rule-5 this year anyway: Tres Barrera and Jake Noll both would have otherwise been on this list.

So, two candidates from this group for me in Braymer and Sharp

 

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Newly Eligible 2015 High School-age drafted players under consideration for protection

• None

The Nats generally don’t pick HS players, so the picking here is always slim.  But we’re down to just 8 players remaining in the system at all from the 2015 draft class, and none of them were HS draftees.

Zero candidates from this group.

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Newly Eligible 2015 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:

• Brailin Mesa, a 2015 IFA DH who never came state-side and who probably was released after the 2017 season, but sometimes milb.com’s records are not up-to-date.
• Gerald De La Cruz: also a 2015 IFA pitcher who never came stateside and has no results past 2017: like Mesa above, probably was released after the 2017 season.
• Omar Meregildo, a 2015 IFA light hitting 3B who split time in 2019 between low- and high-A.  No real jeopardy of getting selected.
• Gilberto Chu, an 2015 IFA RHP who has now appeared in short-season Auburn for 3 seasons running.  Good numbers, but no real jeopardy of getting selected.
• Jhonathan German, 2015 IFA RHP closer who ascended 3 levels in 2019, ending the year in AA.  Good numbers across his career, especially once he abandoned starting.  I’d have a hard time believing he’d get picked though, with just 13 IP above A-ball.  Perhaps we revisit his candidacy next season if he continues to pitch well in AA for a team that’s always looking for relievers.
• Felix Taveras, 2015 IFA now age 24, missed all of 2018 and threw just a handful of complex-league innings in 2019.  Not getting picked.
• Tomas Alastre: 2015 IFA RHP starting pitcher who, inexplicably to me, has been a rotation mainstay in Hagerstown for two full seasons running despite his posting an ERA north of 5.00 consistently throughout that time period.  Is this a case where the team is just keeping him around to eat innings?  I can’t imagine that being the case with so many arms getting drafted each year.   That being said, he’s only 21, so he’s still quite young even though he’s now rule-5 eligible, but he’s at no risk of getting picked in 2019’s rule-5 draft.
• Jhon Romero: 2015 IFA signing, trade bounty for Brandon Knitzler last year during the infamous purging of “bad apples.”  He missed most of 2019 with injury while repeating high-A; little chance of getting selected.

Zero candidates from this group.

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Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note: 2015 or prior college draftees still hanging out in the system, or 2014 and prior HS/IFAs.

2015 Draftees

• Rhett Wiseman, 2015 3rd round left-handed hitting OF out of Vanderbilt.  Repeated High-A in 2018 and drastically improved his OPS, but it seems to be on the back of perhaps going for more of an all or nothing approach: he increased his homer output, but also struck out 122 times in 407 PAs.  In 2019, he ascended to AA and hit just .215.  The team invested a big bonus in him, and it hasn’t panned out.  I really liked this pick at the time, but then watched him hit in the CWS that year and thought he’d have a hard time adjusting to pro pitching.  So far, my amateur observation seems to be holding true.  He seems likely to pass through Rule-5 once again and hit MLFA after 2020.
• Ian Sagdal, 2015 16th round senior sign who has hung around, ascending to AA for 2019 and hitting decently.  He’s listed as a 1B but had just 8 homers this year; that’s not going to get him Rule-5’d.
• Andrew Lee: 2015 11th rounder basically missed all of 2017 with injury, was decent as a swingman in Low-A in 2018, then pitched pretty well in the same swing-man role, ascending to AA in 2019.  Just a half a season above A-Ball; i still don’t see him as a candidate to get picked, but could turn into a James Bourque-like figure for this team next season if he continues to pitch well.  He was sent to the AFL, so scouts got a look at him; is this enough to expose him?
• Tommy Peterson, 2015 12th rounder, has now missed the last two full years; he last appeared at the end of 2017.  Surprised he’s still with the organization, not a candidate to get picked.
• Ryan Brinley, 2015 27th rounder, has also missed the entirety of the last two seasons with injury yet remains on the roster.
• Jorge Pantoja has bounced around the A-levels for four years now, ending last year with a 2.59 ERA in High-A … his fourth year running in Potomac.  not a candidate to get picked.
• Andrew Istler, our trade bounty from the Dodgers for Ryan Madsen.  He had very solid numbers in AA in a middle relief role, even earning a stellar AAA call-up.  He’s an undersized Duke grad, 23rd round pick who has done well.  I wonder if his pedigree makes him less likely to get picked.  In 2019, he was MIA for months, finally got assigned … to High-A despite being in AAA a couple of years ago.  He posted sub 1.00 ERAs in both his stops this year but is now a 27yr old RHP middle reliever.  If someone didn’t pick him last year, its hard to believe he’s ever going to get picked.  At age 27 with solid middle relief numbers, it isn’t out of the realm of possible though that a team could pick him and have him be their 7th man in an 8-man pen…

2014 Draftees

• Jakson Reetz, 3rd round C from 2014.  Reetz was paid a big bonus out of HS, but has struggled for years.  In 2019, repeating high-A for the 3rd successive year he lifted his OPS above .800 in a split-duty role, and was sent to the AFL.  He only appeared in a few games in Arizona; unknown why.  Its hard to see a player getting Rule-5 drafted without having never ascended above A-Ball.
• Austin Davidson started out as a corner OF and 13th rounder in 2014, now a light hitting middle infielder.  Started the year in AA, demoted to high-A.  Not a threat to get drafted.
• Alec Keller: a 2014 17th rounder who has ascended now to AAA, but is a high-average, low-power corner OF who seems like a classic 6-year FA AAA player who will get one more year in Fresno in 2020.
• Robbie Dickey, a 2014 4th rounder who now has no results for 3 successive years on milb.com; it seems likely that he got released after the 2017 season and the site just isn’t updated.
• Tyler Mapes, a great story who continues to hang in there.  He was a 30th rounder in 2014, missed all of 2017 with injury but came back with a vengeance in 2018, dominating Potomac and holding his own with a 3.95 ERA in AA. In 2019 as a full time starter in AA he took a step back; 5.00 ERA across 26 starts, showing  hit-ability and not a ton of swing and miss.  He’s not likely to get picked, but is likely to stay in the rotation in 2020.
• Taylor Gushue, a 2014 Draftee out of Florida who has now made his way all the way to AAA in 2018, then hit .312 as the part-time starter in Fresno this year.  I said this last year, but the lack of Catchers on the Nat’s 40-man and the fact that one of them (Raudy Read) has 63 days of service, a PED suspension and zero options seems like they should think about adding more catching depth.  I’d add Gushue … but its also worth noting that despite the catching depth issues in the sport … the fact that Gushue would have to stay on a 25-man roster all year (essentially being the backup/play twice a week guy) means it’d be a huge risk to take him.  More likely is that the Nats wait it out and he’s the first catcher to get added to provide cover for Kurt Suzuki and whoever else we sign this coming off-season.
• Nick Wells, our trade bounty for Austin Adams at the beginning of 2019 (bet the team wishes they had that trade back; Adams struck out 51 in 31 innings for Seattle and was a solid 7th inning guy … something we could really have used … but I digress).  We got back Wells, a local kid (Battlefield HS) who for reasons unknown sat in XST for most of the summer, then got just 12 innings for Low-A Hagerstown … the same level he initially pitched in four seasons ago.   I’m sure he isn’t getting picked, but I also question what the plan is for Wells at this point.

IFAs: 2014 and older

• Luis Reyes: finally made it to AA in 2018, and got shelled (12 starts, 5.18 ERA).  Nonetheless the team included him in their 2018 AFL roster, where he got even more shelled (4 starts, 12 innings, 22 runs allowed).  This pushed him back to Potomac for 2019, where he lost his rotation spot and struggled in middle relief.  No jeopardy of getting picked.
• Joan Baez went 9-9 with a 3.79 ERA as a full time starter for Potomac in 2018, then moved into relief (finally) in 2019, where he moved up the chain and ended the year in AAA.  He had good numbers in AA, not as good in AAA (but who does), but concerningly had more walks than Ks in Fresno.  He’s only 24.  This team is always looking for relievers.  I wonder if he’s worth protecting at this point.
• Telmito Agustin, a LF who hit pretty well for High-A in 2018 (OPS of .822) … then repeated the level in 2019.  Not a candidate to get picked.
• Steven Fuentes, who forced a mid-season promotion to High-A where he posted a 3.00 ERA in 45 middle-relief type innings in 2018 … and got PED suspended in 2019.  Not a candidate
• Gilbert Lara, the 3B prospect the Nats received from Milwaukee in the Gio Gonzalez trade.   He played all of 2018 in Low-A, then jumped up to High-A mid-2019 but is no candidate for drafting.
• Malvin Pena basically missed two full seasons, spent entirety of 2019 in High-A’s rotation and posted an ERA north of 6.00.  Not a candidate to get picked.
• Aldrem Corredor, a 1B who has hung around since 2012 in the system, played 2019 in high-A as a 1b for average kind of guy; not a candidate.
• Omar Meregildo: a light hitting part time 3B who played in Potomac this year; not a candidate.
• Angel Guillen, a RHP reliever who pushed his way up to Potomac this year with solid numbers.  I like him in 2020 to get to AA; not a candidate.

One solid candidate from this group (Gushue), two maybes (Baez, Istler)

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MLFAs for 2019: 

These are 2013 or prior college draftees, or 2012 or prior HS draftees/IFA signings.

Post-2019 publishing, i’m adding a new section because  it seems like we’re going to see the following situation occur for the second time in recent memory.   Long time farmhand Mario Sanchez achieved minor league free agency at the end of the 2019 season, but apparently has been re-signed (his milb.com page lists the Nationals resigning him to a contract … but its dated in the future, 12/18/19, something i’ve never seen before).   But, if he’s re-signed as a MLFA with the team, then he has to be protected else he’d be subject to the draft.

This situation occurred a couple years back with Wander Suero, when the team selected his contract the day after the season ended upon his reaching MLFA status.

There’s a few other interesting newly-minted MLFA candidates who we’ve talked about in the past, but unless we have evidence the team re-signs them they’re not really candidates to discuss here.  Names like Drew Ward, Jordan Mills, etc.  Perhaps even Spencer Kieboom.  But like Suero and Sanchez, if you want to keep them, you’ve got to sign them to a ML deal.

One candidate from this group: Sanchez

 

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So, who would I protect?

So, remember, if someone gets drafted they have to stick on someone else’s ACTIVE, 25-man (well, now 26-man) MLB roster the entirety of 2019.  So it has to be someone who could theoretically stick on a MLB roster.

• Ben Braymer
• Sterling Sharp

Who would I additionally consider?

• Taylor Gushue
• Joan Baez
• Andrew Istler

Here’s some other opinions in the Natmosphere on the same topic (i’ll add them as I see them):

• Federal Baseball thinks Sharp, maybe Braymer, maybe Istler
• TalkNats/SaoMagnifico (who’s been chatting on this post) thinks Sharp, maybe Braymer, maybe Fuentes, possibly Istler, German, Sanchez, Banks, Gushue
• BaseballAmerica.com (via Nationalsprospects.com) thinks Sharp yes, possibly Braymer, possibly Malvin Pena (??)

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For a fun trip down memory lane, here’s the same Rule 5 Protection analysis post for 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

By year, here’s who I predicted we’d add and who we did add.

• 2019: Predicted Braymer, Sharp.  Actual: just Braymer.  And…. Sharp got picked in the Rule-5 draft by Miami.
• 2018: Predicted: Bourque, Mills, Istler.  Actual: just Bourque.
• 2017: Predicted: Gutierrez, Gushue, Ward, Baez.  Actual: Gutierrez and Jefry Rodriguez.
• 2016: Predicted Voth, Bautista.  Actual: Voth, Bautista, Marmolejos, Read and Skole.
• 2015: Predicted Kieboom, Bostick, Marmolejos-Diaz.  Actual: Kieboom, Bostick, Lee
• 2014: Predicted Cole, Skole, Goodwin.  Hedged on Grace, Martin and Difo.  Actual: Cole, Goodwin, Difo, Grace.
• 2013: Predicted Solis as the only lock (Souza already added).  Possibles mentioned in order Barrett, Taylor, Grace, Holland.  Actual: Solis, Barrett, Taylor.
• 2012: Predicted Karns and McCoy, with Hood and Rosenbaum as maybes.  Actual: Karns and Davis.  I think we were all surprised by Davis’ inclusion, despite his good AA numbers that year.
• 2011: Predicted Norris as a lock, guessed strongly on Moore, Meyers and Komatsu.  Actual: Norris, Moore, Solano, Perez.    This was poor analysis on my part; I did not consider the IFAs newly eligible.
• 2010: Predicted Marrero, Meyers and Mandel.  Actual: Marrero, Carr and Kimball.
• 2009: pre-dates my blog and thus no predictions, but Actual was Jaime, Thompson and Severino.
• 2008: I might be wrong, but I don’t see any evidence of the team protecting *anyone* prior to the Rule-5 draft.  A bit of an indictment of the farm system at the time, I’d say 🙂

We do this every year.  We argue about it every year.  This is now the 8th version of this post (see the bottom for links/summary of the first seven).  Thanks to long-since implemented service time changes the Rule-5 draft remains mitigated in importance.  Yet here we are talking about it again, because we’re some of the few people out there who obsess about the edges of the 40-man roster, and who have meticulously studied our prospects for years and who don’t necessarily want to see the promising ones head out the door for a pittance.   So here we are.

Next Monday at 8pm is the deadline to set 40-man rosters ahead of the Winter Meetings, which include the Rule-5 draft.  With so many teams purposely tanking there’s going to be lots of usage of the draft this year.  Lets take a look at who is eligible, who might get protected and make some predictions.  I’ve got the Nats 40-man roster at 35 now, so there’s plenty of room to add names and do their off-season work.

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts on who might merit protection.   Also incredibly useful is Roster Resource’s Nats Roster, which keeps track of options, rule-5 status and the like.

The quick Rule-5 rules for 2017; any college-aged draftee from 2014 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee/International Free Agent from 2013 or before is newly eligible this year, assuming they were at least 18 as of June 5th of that year.

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Newly Eligible 2014 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

• Austen Williams: he has featured at High-A 3 years running, got moved to AA for the 2nd year running this year and still continues to struggle with that leap.  I don’t think he’s a candidate to protect but is worth mentioning since he’s a long-serving starter in the organization.  The team sent him to the AFL perhaps as an audition for consideration.
• Tyler Mapes: the 30th round pick continues to be found gold for this team … but he missed the entire 2017 with an injury.  Because of that he’s clearly not a rule-5 danger, but he could fit into the teams plans as a rotation member in AA or AAA this year.  He has a career 2.68 ERA in the minors, vastly outperforming most of the rest of his draft class.
• Taylor Gushue: the 2017 trade acquisition had a solid year in High-A, is a catcher in a system that needs them, and seems like a lock to add.  He wasn’t set to the AFL for nothing.

Not mentioned: several other draftees from this class that are marginal prospects right now: Dale Carey, Matthew Page, Austin Davidson, Alec Keller, Robbie Dickey, Weston Davis, James Bourque.  All these guys are still in the lower minors.  Dickey represents the biggest investment ($400k signing bonus) and is one of the biggest disappointments from this draft.

Erick Fedde would have been the big name here to protect had he not already been added.  Trea Turner was also a 2014 college draftee.

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Newly Eligible 2013 High School-age drafted players under consideration for protection

• Drew Ward: he is literally the only 2013 HS draftee remaining in the system and is an interesting protection case.  He had a great 2016 (making the All Star team and shining in High-A) but has not translated that success to AA.  But, he’s only 22, and a 22-yr old struggling in AA isn’t that surprising.  Question is; do you protect him?  He’s blocked at the major league level by Anthony Rendon but that means little in a game where his value might be in trade versus production for the big league squad.  It wouldn’t surprise me if he got protected.

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Newly Eligible 2013 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:

• Edwin Lora: SS who has progressed neatly one level at a time for 5 years.  But he’s a career .238 hitter.  We need a backup utility fielder and he fits the bill, but he doesn’t seem to be ready.  I also don’t see him as a threat to get drafted.
• Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B recently of the AFL who has shown some promise.  He’s a lock to get protected based on his production and his presence in Arizona.
• Luis Reyes, RHP who started 26 games for Potomac this year.  He’s a bit wild, but he’s also a solid starter who projects to AA in 2018.  Is that enough to be a draft threat?   Maybe.
• Anderson Franco, 3B: highly touted on prospect boards, but hit just .201 for low-A this year.  Not a draft candidate but someone to watch/hope for a rebound 2018.

Not mentioned: many 2013 IFA signings throughout the lower levels of the system.  This includes Aldrem Corridor, Joshual Ramirez, Luis Vilorio, Oliver Ortiz, Francys Peguero.  Honestly, I had not even heard of most of these guys and wouldn’t be surprised if I had their eligibility wrong.  They’re mostly in the very low minors.

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Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note: 2013 or prior college draftees still hanging out in the system, or 2012 and prior HS/IFAs.

• Wander Suero: the 2010 IFA exploded onto the scene this year as the closer in AA and then AAA, posting a 1.79 ERA for the year and heading to the AFL.  He was already added to the roster two weeks ago.
• John Simms: I’ve always liked this guy; he’s now worked his way to AAA and made 8 starts there last  year.  He isn’t a big K/9 guy, perhaps is seen as an org arm, but he’s got a good pedigree (Rice) and has made it to the cusp of the majors.  Is that enough to protect him?  Probably not.
• Spencer Kieboom: he struggled enough in 2016 to get DFA’d in early 2017 … but then he hit pretty well in AAA this year.  Is that enough to get him back into the mix?
• Dakota Bacus: he pitched pretty darn well in relief across High-A and AA this year, and was sent to AFL to get more innings.  Is he an option to add?  He didn’t have the numbers that Suero did, but perhaps the team thinks he could be an option out of the pen.
• Kyle McGowin: an interesting case since he was sent to the AFL: he struggled badly in 2017, getting demoted to AA at one point and posting a 5.95 ERA for the year.  I don’t think we’d shed a tear if he was drafted, but I don’t think he’s meriting a 40-man spot right now.
• Joan Baez; power arms don’t grow on trees, and even though he was “only” in high-A this year he’s well known enough to perhaps merit protection.

2013 or before College Draftees that are Rule-5 holdovers include David Masters, Isaac Ballou, Justin Thomas, Matthew DeRosier, Robert Benincasa, Derek Self, Brian Rauh, Ronald Pena, Robert Orlan, Steven Perez, Bryan Mejia, Osvaldo Abreu, Wirkin Estevez, Hector Silvestre, Jefry Rodriguez.  Perhaps at some points in their careers some of these guys seemed like locks, but for now they all toil in the lower minors (for the most part) hoping to put themselves into contention.

MLFAs who are technically Rule-5 eligible:  Yadiel Hernandez,  Irving Falou, Greg Ross, Jaron Long, Jordan Mills.  Long in particular has worked in AAA for three years now, but may be considered an org arm at this point.  Ross looked promising for a while, but struggled badly in 2017.

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So, who would I protect?

• Wander Suero (already added)
• Kelvin Gutierrez
• Taylor Gushue
• Drew Ward
• Joan Baez

Who would I consider: Kieboom, Bacus.  Maybe.

If they added these four additional guys they’d be at 39/40 on the roster, still leaving them immediate room for a FA signing or trade.   But there’s more than a few names on our 40-man currently that could be cut (starting with Voth, Gott, Bautista).  So we could see some manouvering this off-season.

Did I miss anyone?  this is kind of tough analysis without a massive white board with every name in the organization listed … something none of us have time to do for free.

Nats official protection announcement: Gutierrez and Jefry Rodriguez in kind of a shocker.

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For a fun trip down memory lane, here’s the same Rule 5 Protection analysis post for 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

By year, here’s who I predicted we’d add and who we did add.

• 2017: Predicted: Gutierrez, Gushue, Ward, Baez.  Actual: Gutierrez and Jefry Rodriguez.
• 2016: Predicted Voth, Bautista.  Actual: Voth, Bautista, Marmolejos, Read and Skole.
• 2015: Predicted Kieboom, Bostick, Marmolejos-Diaz.  Actual: Kieboom, Bostick, Lee
• 2014: Predicted Cole, Skole, Goodwin.  Hedged on Grace, Martin and Difo.  Actual: Cole, Goodwin, Difo, Grace.
• 2013: Predicted Solis as the only lock (Souza already added).  Possibles mentioned in order Barrett, Taylor, Grace, Holland.  Actual: Solis, Barrett, Taylor.
• 2012: Predicted Karns and McCoy, with Hood and Rosenbaum as maybes.  Actual: Karns and Davis.  I think we were all surprised by Davis’ inclusion, despite his good AA numbers that year.
• 2011: Predicted Norris as a lock, guessed strongly on Moore, Meyers and Komatsu.  Actual: Norris, Moore, Solano, Perez.    This was poor analysis on my part; I did not consider the IFAs newly eligible.
• 2010: Predicted Marrero, Meyers and Mandel.  Actual: Marrero, Carr and Kimball.
• 2009: pre-dates my blog and thus no predictions, but Actual was Jaime, Thompson and Severino.
• 2008: I might be wrong, but I don’t see any evidence of the team protecting *anyone* prior to the Rule-5 draft.  A bit of an indictment of the farm system at the time, I’d say 🙂

(Last post in this series, then back to the big club).

We have looked at the four full-season staffs, guessing the roles, and talk about the changes of the staffs from the end of last year til now.

Let’s talk briefly about the 40 some-odd guys in XST or unassigned right now, name some surprises and perhaps talk about where they might slot in if/when they get a chance.

See here for Syracuse 2017 review, here for Harrisburg 2017 review, here for Potomac 2017 review, here for Hagerstown 2017 review.

Quick links for rosters for each full season affiliate:

• Syracuse Roster
• Harrisburg Roster
• Potomac roster
• Hagerstown roster

And don’t forget the invaluable work of SpringfieldFan maintaining the Nats Big Board, now in its 12th season!

Notes: Extended Spring Training is abbreviated XST throughout.  Other abbreviations I use often: MLFA == Minor League Free Agent, OOO = Out of the Organization.

Note: since writing this mid last week, we’ve already seen more than a few names get assigned and removed from XST purgatory.  I’ll just cross them out and not change what I originally wrote below.

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Extended Spring Training Players to start the 2017 Full Season

I’m heavily depending on the great work of the Big Board for this list.  I count no less than 46 minor league pitchers who are still under contract to this team but who did not get a full season assignment.  A huge percentage of them were on Short-A or Rookie league teams and were more or less expected to repeat the short seasons.  I have not included anyone who was in the DSL last year as being in this list, coincidentally; I only try to keep track of the domestic leagues.

Below is a rough guess as to where these XST guys are intended to slot in if/when they get assigned:

• AAA: Eitel, Guthrie, Lannan*, Outman, Nathan
• AA: JDMartin, Blackmar, Benincasa, Rauh
• High-A: Mayberry, JThomas*, Mendez
• Low-A: JMorales, ALee, DeRosier, Howell, Dickey
• Short-A: WPena, YRamierez, DRamos, Aponte, Cespedes, Fuentes, JGomez, Gunter, Mooney, Morse, Reid
• Rookie: Alastre, Braymer, Baltrip, Amoroso, Barnett, Conner, Eusebio, German, Luzardo, McDonald, Peguero, NRamirez, Rishwain, Tindall, RWilliamson
• unknown (been in XST for > 1yr): Bates, CFlores, AMartinez, Shackelford

Discussion

AAA: by the time you read this, Jeremy Guthrie may have already taken a spot start in the majors (update: he has, making Saturday’s 4/8/17 start in Philly), which will have implied that he’ll have been added to the 40-man and 25-man, and that he’ll more or less have guaranteed his spot up there for a while (since as a vet, he won’t be able to be assigned back to AAA w/o his consent/passing through waivers).  I’m guessing the other guys make their way to Syracuse at some point, perhaps as cascading back-fills if there’s injuries requiring call-ups to the majors.  2017 spring training NRI Joe Nathan, after this writing, got signed and assigned to AAA.

AA: I could see Martin slotting in at either AA (where he ended up last year) or at AAA (due to his experience).   Blackmar struggled in AA and could get pushed back to High-A.  The other two were release candidates to me.  Update: Blackmar re-assigned back to AA as expected to replace Arias in the rotation.

High-A: All three guys here pitched for Potomac last year, and all three pitched well.  Mendez earned a promotion to AA where he got hit, so maybe he just got caught in a numbers game.  None are release candidates to me so perhaps they all missed out on the AA team but have nothing left to prove in High-A.

Low-A: Morales, Lee and DeRosier were all hurt in 2016 (Morales for the whole season, Lee/DeRosier for just half), so it all depends on the extend of the injuries.  Howell was the fastest 2016 draft class riser .. so its kind of odd he wasn’t put on a full season team.  Maybe they thought he needed more time in Short-A.  Lastly I’m not sure what  you do with Robbie Dickey; two straight years bouncing between short- and low-A with little to show for it.  The 4th rounder represents a somewhat large investment by the club that hasn’t panned out and (even though the concept of “sunk cost” may apply here) he’ll likely get more shots to work out.

Short-A:  this list includes mostly guys who were at Auburn last  year and who didn’t make the  Hagerstown cut, but it also includes some guys who should have gone further by now, so I’d guess we’ll see some releases out of this list, especially once the Rule4 draft rolls around.

Rookie: same as with Short-A, especially for the college-age guys here.  I do look forward to the 2017 debut of Jesus Luzardo of course; he could quickly become our 2nd best starting pitching prospect.

Unknowns: what do you make of players who are on pace to miss nearly a year and a half of pro time?  I have no idea where any of these guys slot in any more and wouldn’t be surprised to see them all let go at this point.

Third in our set of Draft class Reviews for the 2016 season.  First was the 2016 class, then the 2015 class.

Web links to use while reading:

• Stats are pulled from milb.com and/or fangraphs.com; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats
• The MLB.com Draft Tracker (which I believe is the best draft tracker out there) is the best place to get draft class information.
• The Big Board and the Draft Tracker are the goto resources for prospects for any Nats fan.
• More obscure stats on players are sometimes found at places like thebaseballcube.com, perfectgame.org, their college websites, twitter accounts for the players, and good old fashioned deep-dive googling.
• My historical list of Nats prospect rankings, updated for all 2016 mid-season rankings.

With out further ado…

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Round 1: Erick Fedde RHP (starter) COL jr from UNLV.  8-5 with a 3.12 ERA in 23 games (22 starts) across 2 levels.  123/29 K/BB in 121 IP.  1.21 combined whip, 3.22 fip and .316 babip in Potomac.  Fedde began the year in the Potomac rotation and struggled in his first 6-7 starts.  Then something clicked; from late May through his eventual promotion to AA in early august, he threw 10 straight starts giving up 0 or 1 earned runs, driving his ERA down from somewhere in the 6.60 range in May to a sub 3.00 ERA for the year in High-A.  His final Potomac start may have been his best: 10 strikeouts, 5 hits and 1 unearned run in 7 innings.  In his limited time in AA, he had one blow-out but was other wise also solid (in his last start of the season he had 12 strikeouts in 6 innings).  Fedde looks completely back to his first round projection form and may quickly add his name to the list of guys in AAA pushing for a promotion to the majors.   Trending up.

Round 2: Andrew Suarez LHP (starter) COL jr  from Miami (FL).  Did not sign: 2nd round signee for San Francisco in 2015.  Spent most of 2016 starting for SF’s AA team in Richmond and looked solid.  He may need another year in AA.

Round 3: Jakson Reetz, C  Norris HS (NE).  Slashed .230/.346/.357 splitting time at C in Hagerstown.  79/38 K/BB, 4homers, 4SBs.  Reetz’ first foray into full-season ball did not result in appreciably better results all around at the plate.  He improve his slugging percentage with more XBH, but his average remains poor.  79 Ks in 283 ABs is a hefty percentage.  This was his age 20 season, playing in Low-A, and there’s not a ton of competition for the High-A catcher job next year, so he likely moves on up, but i’m a bit down on him at this point.  Perhaps unfairly.  Truth is, he got a big bonus and the team will give him plenty of room to grow.  Trending down.

Round 4: Robbie Dickey, RHP (reliever) from Blinn College (TX). 2-0, 3.48 ERA for two levels relieving.  26/18 K/BB in 20 2/3rds innings.  1.89 whip, 5.60 fip, .345 babip while in Hagerstown.  Dickey started the season in Short-A, his third successive year in Auburn.  This time though he forced his way up, featuring as a reliever now instead of a starter, giving up 1 hit in 8 innings and quickly getting pushed up to Hagerstown.  Once there, he quickly got hurt and when he returned his control left him; he walked 15 but struck out 15 in 12 2/3 low-A innings.  He now has 46 walks in 78 professional innings and we may begin wondering when he’s going to put things together.  2017 is a make-or-break season for Dickey; he’s going to be (believe it or not) rule-5 eligible after next season and he’s yet to come close to mastering Low-A.  I’m guessing he’s in the Hagerstown bullpen and as an upper round pick will be given a few more chances before the team cuts bait.   Trending down.

Round 5: Drew Van Orden RHP (starter) COL sr from Duke.  Released 3/16/16.  Now this kind of surprised me.  No he wasn’t a dominant swing and miss guy in 2015 (47 Ks in 92 IP) but he gave the team a bunch of innings at a 3.61 ERA clip.  I guess he’s a victim of the pitcher-heavy drafts of this time frame.  He’s also a victim of being a low bonus, low investment senior sign.

Round 6: Austen Williams RHP (starter) COL jr from Texas State.  Went 5-13 with a 5.45 ERA in 26 starts for High-A and AA.  78/48 K/BB in 140 1/3 innings, 1.74 whip, 5.00 fip and .339 babip while in AA.  Williams was in the opening day AA rotation after a stellar 2015 but was demoted back to High-A after two months of AA struggles.  Once back in High-A, he couldn’t repeat his 2015 success there and got hit hard.  His Potomac ERA was 3 points higher this year than it was last year.  His 2015 season put him on the prospect map (around 20th on Nats prospect lists) and his 2016 season has caused his name to vanish.  Now what?  I guess you start him back in AA again and hope that the 2nd time around is better.  Trending down.

Round 7: Dale “D.K.” Carey OF (CF) COL sr from Miami (FL).  Slashed .209/.341/.331 while playing all three OF positions for Potomac.  84/63 K/BB ratio in 326 ABs, 7 homers, 5 SBs.  A ton of walks jacked up his OBP and helped off set his poor BA in High-A this year.  Carey’s problem is that the OF spots are scarce the higher you go.  He played along side the best hitting prospect in our system (Victor Robles) and 2015 2nd round pick Andrew Stevenson has already passed him by.  He may be victim of a numbers game in 2017, all the more so since he was signed for a relative pittance as a senior.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get cut loose at the end of spring training 2017.  Trending down.

Round 8: Jeff Gardner, LF COL sr from Louisville.  Released 6/6/16.  As predicted, Gardner failed to make Hagerstown and then failed to prove he could earn an Auburn job and was released once the 2016 signings came in.

Round 9: Austin Byler, 1B COL jr for Nevada (Reno).  Did not sign: became an 11th round by Arizona in 2015.  He ended 2016 with Arizona’s high-A Visalia team after serving a PED suspension that cost him the first two months of the season.

Round 10: Matthew Page, RF/1B COL sr  from Oklahoma Baptist U.  Slashed .267/.348/.419 while earning a promotion from Low-A to High-A.  99/53 K/BB in 415 ABs.  11 homers, 3 SBs.  Yes that’s a lot of Ks.  But Page is turning into a nice little pick up.  He had an OPS above .800 and slugged 10 homers in 88 games for Hagerstown before earning a promotion to Potomac.  Playing 1B exclusively this year (he was drafted as a RF) he really struggled power-wise once he got to High-A (just 3 XBH in 30 games), but he earned the promotion in the first place.  I don’t think there’s anyone to push him off the position to start next year at Potomac … but he’s gotta rebound and show he can hit in High-A like he did in Low-A.  Trending Steady.

Round 11: Weston Davis RHP (starter) Manatee HS (FL).  Went 3-6 with a 2.67 ERA in 11 starts for Auburn.  33/11 K/BB in 54 IP, 0.93 whip, 3.07 fip, .236 babip.  Davis missed all of 2015 after signing out of HS in 2014, was in the Auburn opening day rotation and stayed there the whole season.  He turned 20 during the season but more than held his own against the older competition.  He looks pretty promising after missing a whole year and barely pitching his draft year.  My one nit is his K rate; just 33 in 54 IP.  He should be in the Hagerstown rotation to start 2017.  Trending Up.

Round 12: Domenick Mancini RHP (reliever) from Miami-Dade CC South.  Released 6/27/15.

Round 13: Austin Davidson, 3B COL jr  from Pepperdine.  Slashed a healthy .272/.377/.443 between Low- and  High-A in 2016.  46/49 K/BB ratio in 316 ABs, 9 hrs and 5 SB.   Davidson was stranded in XST to start the year then returned to Hagerstown in late April only to play sparingly until June.   From there he played pretty consistently both for Hagerstown and then for Potomac (he got promoted in early July for the 2nd Half).  He had solid numbers and a great OBP in both land a solid enough slugging even without a ton of homers.  He also had more walks than strikeouts, which I believe is the first time I’ve seen that for any hitter profiled in these posts.  His problem seems to be positional; he’s listed as a “DH” on Milb.com, was drafted as a 3B but played in the field sparingly this year (some 2B, some 3B).  I’d guess he’s pegged for a 2B slot, but then that has him competing with the generic “middle infielder” type who is dotted all over these low-minors rosters.  Nonetheless, he’s not going to get cut when he’s one of the few guys posting .800 OPS figures in the system, so i’m trending him up.  I figure he’ll do the Potomac to Harrisburg thing in 2017 assuming he continues to be a tough out.  Trending up.

Round 14: James Bourque RHP (starter) COL jr from Michigan.  5-6 with a 5.03 ERA in 17 games/13 starts for Hagerstown.  55/23 K/BB in 68ip.  1.53 whip, 4.89 fip, .327 babip.  Bourque missed all of 2015 with injury and then hung around XST until early June.  From there he featured in the Hagerstown rotation for the most part, but his role seemed to be “spot starter” instead of rotation guy.   He didn’t have the best numbers, no two ways around it.  Maybe it was rust.  I’m guessing he’ll get another shot at the Hagerstown rotation in 2017 but may be a release candidate.  Trending Down.

Round 15: Ryan Ripken 1B COL soph from Indian River State (FL).  Slashed just .201/.241/.254 between Low-A and Short-A.  73/20 K/BB in 374 ABs, 3HR, 1SB.  Ripken started the year in Hagerstown but hit just .190 and got dumped back to Short-A.  He’s now got three pro years under his belt and is hitting just .205 for his career, mostly in short-season ball.  Its hard to see him continuing to get chances even given his family pedigree.   Trending down.

Round 16: Cole Plouck LHP (reliever) from Pima CC (AZ): Released on 6/29/15.

Round 17: Alec Keller CF COL sr from Princeton by way of Richmond VA and Freeman HS.  Slashed .285/.338/.374 playing a full season (mostly in LF) for Potomac.  78/35 K/BB, 3homers, 14SB.  Keller more or less replicated his High-A numbers posted in the 2nd half of 2015; solid average, not a ton of power.  Keller’s issue is that the tryouts for the AA outfield are looking tough; he may be hard pressed to get a promotion in a corner OF spot without any power.  I’m guessing he makes AA as a 4th outfielder in 2017.  As I noted last year though, he’s performing great for a senior sign from an Ivy league school.  Trending Steady.

Round 18: McKenzie Mills,  LHP (starter), Sprayberry Senior HS (GA). 4-5, 3.71 ERA in 12 starts for Short-A.   46/28 K/BB in 53 1/3 innings, 1.33 whip, 4.03 fip, .269 babip.  Mills was the #2 starter in Auburn to start the season … and was the #2 starter at the end of the season.  He posted a solid season; not awe-inspiring but pretty good for a guy who doesn’t turn 21 until next month.  He addressed the issues that plagued him in 2015 and his hits/inning figure looks great.  I’d like to see how he does in full season ball and project him in the Hagerstown rotation in 2017.  Trending Steady.

Round 19: Clay Williamson,  OF (RF) COL jr from Cal State Fullerton.  Released 6/29/15.

Round 20: Bryan Langlois, RF COL jr from Pepperdine: Apparently retired Jan 2015 (per the Big Board), but he doesn’t have an official transaction listed in MILB.com.  He didn’t play for us after 2014 despite not being officially released.

Round 21: Connor Bach, LHP COL sr from Virginia Military Institute by way of Centreville HS in Clifton.  Went 0-1 with a 7.30 ERA in 5 relief appearances in Low-A and then was released on 6/1/16.   This one was another shocker for me; he was in Hagerstown’s rotation the whole of 2015 and was good; what happened to him in 2016?   Miami picked him up 6 days after we released him but he was similarly bad for them and they cut him loose a month later.  Such a strange set of circumstances.

Round 22: Daniel Salters, C COL soph  from Dallas Baptist: did not sign: drafted by Cleveland in the 13th round of 2015 draft.  He was in High-A and AA for Cleveland this year.

Round 23: Chris Riopedre, SS COL jr, East Tennessee State.  Released on 6/25/15.

Round 24: Kyle Simmons RHP (reliever) COL jr Texas Lutheran U.  Released on 5/3/16 after not appearing in 2015 and failing to make a full season squad in 2016.

Round 25: Kyle Bacak C COL sr  from Texas Christian U.  Released 1/20/15.

Round 26: Chase McDowell RHP (reliever) COL 5S  Rice (TX): Retired 4/9/15

Round 27: Conor Keniry SS COL sr Wake Forest U.  Released on 4/2/16 after playing sparingly in 2015 and failing to make either Hagerstown or Potomac as a backup infielder.

Round 28: Kida De La Cruz, RHP (reliever) from Volunteer State CC (TN). Released on 3/26/16 after throwing just 19 innings in two seasons in the GCL.

Round 29: DJ Jauss, RHP COL 5S from U. Mass. Amherst: Released 3/26/15.

Round 30: Tyler Mapes RHP COL sr from Tulane U. (LA).  went 12-10 with a 3.19 ERA for AA Harrisburg.  25 games/25 starts.  78/39 K/BB ratio in 155 innings.  1.25 whip, 4.22 fip, .283 babip.  Mapes was the #2 starter in Harrisburg all  year and continues to be a fantastic draft pickup for this team.  Who would have thought a 30th rounder college senior who probably signed for a few thousand dollars would be on the brink of the AAA roster?  He doesn’t have the best strikeout numbers, which may define a glass ceiling for him, but he should continue to matriculate to AAA next year.  That being said, its crowded at the top, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s back in AA.   Trending up.

Round 31: Samuel Johns RHP COL 5S U. Evansville (IN).  Released 1/12/16.  What was surprising about this release was the timing; why not let him compete in spring training for a Hagerstown spot?  The January release is an odd one.

The rest of the 2014 draft class was HS kids who were long shots to sign and a Juco kid in the 40th who already had a transfer agreement to a good baseball school; one more piece of evidence to perhaps shorten the draft to 35 or even 30 rounds?  Here’s a quick summary.

Round 32: Elliott Cary: CF Clackamas HS (OR): did not sign: honored commitment to Oregon State.    Started 24 games as a freshman but did not play in 2016 (injured?).
Round 33: Clay Casey: CF DeSoto Central HS (MS): did not sign: was initially set to attend Ole Miss, but then changed his mind and attended Northwest Mississippi CC to be draft eligible in 2015.  He didn’t get drafted though, so he then enrolled at the U. of Houston.  Update: things didn’t work out there, so he transferred to D2 Delta State University, where he had a successful 2017 season in what was his “junior” year.
Round 34: Evan Skoug: C Libertyville HS (IL): did not sign: honored commitment to TCU.  At TCU he has been a starter since day 1 and was named Freshman All-American.  As a sophomore he slashed .301/.390/.502 and was 2nd team all-conference.  I’d say its safe to say he has made himself some money in College.
Round 35: Tommy Doyle RHP Flint Hill School in Oakton: did not sign: honored commitment to Virginia.  At UVA, Doyle played an integral part in getting UVA out of the regional his freshman year but did little else for the team as UVA surprisingly won the CWS.  As a sophomore, he had a 5.07 ERA all told as he was convered from mid-week starter to “closer” towards the end of the season.  I’m guessing he’s back in the rotation for his junior year as the Cavaliers are a bit short on starters.
Round 36: John Henry Styles, LHP Episcopal HS (TX): did not sign: honored commitment to Stanford.  There, he’s had almost no playing time, getting 5 appearances as a freshman and just one as a sophomore.
Round 37: Quinn Brodey, LHP Loyola HS (CA): did not sign: honored commitment to Stanford.  There he was a 2-way player as a freshman but moved to the OF as a sophomore, slashing .280/.302/.445 this year and being named All Pac-12.
Round 38: Stuart Fairchild RF Seattle Prep (WA): did not sign: honored commitment to Wake Forest.  As a sophomore this year he started every game and slashed .293/.403/.470.
Round 39: Jon Littell, OF Stillwater HS (OK): did not sign: honored commitment to OK State.  As a sophomore this year, he slashed .258/.332/.343.
Round 40: Jacob Hill LHP JUCO Orange Coast Coll. (CA): did not sign: transferred to U San Diego, then was drafted by Cleveland in the 32nd round of 2015 and also did not sign.  He went back to San Diego for his senior year, only threw 8 innings in 2016 and was not drafted.

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Trending Summary:

• Trending Up (4): Fedde, Davis, Davidson, Mapes
• Trending Steady (3): Page, Keller, Mills
• Trending Down (6): Reetz, Dickey, Williams, Carey, Bourque, Ripken
• Released/Retired (15): Van Orden, Gardner, Mancini, Plouck, Williamson, Langlois, Bach, Riopedre, Simmons, Bacak, McDowell, Keniry, De La Cruz, Jauss, Johns
• Did Not Sign in 2014 (12): Suarez, Byler, Salters, Cary, Casey, Skoug, Doyle, Styles, Brodey, Fairchild, Littell, Hill

Executive Summary

At this point just 7 of the 40 players are trending in what can inarguably be considered a positive fashion; 15 of the 28 players signed have already been cut loose and another 6 of them are  heading that way.  Is this destined to be a one-player draft?  Who else besides Fedde is projecting as a major leaguer?

There were a TON of cascading moves announced today, with multiple guys moving up in our system.  Starting at the bottom:

• GCL: 2016 draftees and RHPs Jacob Howell and Phil Morse got bumped to Auburn after one appearance each in the GCL.
• Auburn then sent Angelo La Bruna, Robbie Dickey and Randy Encarnacion (who probably should have been higher honestly) to Hagerstown.  This will be Dickey’s third shot at Low-A but he was clearly not touchable in Short-A (8ip, 1H 11Ks in 3 outings so far this year).
• Hagerstown then bumped up two great hitting prospects Max Schrock, Victor Robles and Trey Lambert to Potomac.  Robles and Schrock were both all-stars and both were flatly out-hitting Low-A.  Lambert has quietly been toiling in the bullpen and had a 27/2 K/BB ratio this year.  I tell you, i’m really starting to get excited about Robles, and I think Schrock is turning into a draft day steal.
• Potomac then bumped up Drew Ward, Andrew Stevenson, Ryan Brinley and Boone Whiting to AA.   Three of these four were all-stars this year, and Whiting was in AAA all of last year so was wasting his efforts in high-A.  Kudos for Ward to get the promotion and get his prospect career back on track, and even more kudos for Stevenson to earn such a quick promotion to AA.
• Harrisburg then moved up Chris Bostick, Zack Collier and suddenly dominant starter Reynaldo Lopez to Syracuse (they also put Wander Suero on the TIL list to account for the four promotions).  How about the season Lopez is having?  As noted in the comments, he’s leading AA in K/9 while maintaining a 3+ K/BB ratio.
• Syracuse’s corresponding moves were mostly bloodshed: they released Scott Sizemore, Tony Campana and RHP Juan Gutierrez to make room.  They also promoted Rafael Martin for at least the day.  Lopez isn’t going to be pitching out of the bullpen though, so I’d imagine that Jared Long will get demoted to fill the vacated spot in AA.

Why is there an extra spot in AA’s rotation?

Because Lucas Giolito got called up!  Mid Monday the announcement came out; he’s making the start on Tuesday.  Get your DVRs ready!  I won’t go into Giolito too much; we all know what he’s supposed to be.  Question is; will he live up to the hype?

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(if you want to see all the transactions organized by league, here’s the links I use):

Minor League Transaction announcement links

• International League transactions
• Eastern League transactions
• Carolina League transactions
• South Atlantic league transactions
• NY Penn League transactions
• GCL league transactions
• DSL league transactions

After reviewing all the 2015 pitching staffs, I projected where I thought everyone would start in 2016.

Now that the four full-season affiliates have been announced, lets see how my predictions turned out.  As always, the Big Board (maintained by SpringfieldFan) is a great resource to track everyone.

Notations here: * = lefty, ^ == new off-season acquisition.  Also, “Missing” usually means “Stuck in Extended Spring Trianing/XST” or in organizational limbo.

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MLB Predicted

• Rotation: Scherzer, Strasburg, Ross, Gonzalez*, Roark
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Treinen, Rivero*, Perez*^, Kelley^, Gott^, Petit^
• D/L: Barrett (60-day DL)
• out of organization: Zimmermann, Fister, Storen (traded), Thornton*, Janssen, Carpenter, Stammen (non-tendered)

MLB Actual Opening day

• Rotation: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez*, Ross, Roark
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Treinen, Rivero*, Perez*, Kelley, Belisle, Petit
• D/L: Barrett (60-day DL)

Discussion: only one surprise from the pre-Spring Training prediction for this team: Matt Belisle makes the team ahead of Trevor Gott.  Otherwise everyone is in the roles they were acquired to hold.  There was some question about whether Blake Treinen would get optioned early in the spring, but not now.  The order of the starters wasn’t right: Ross is being treated like the 4th starter and Roark the 3rd, I guess.

It probably wasn’t too hard to predict 12 out of the 13 spots in the MLB roster, so we won’t pat ourselves on the back too much.  Lets talk minors.

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AAA Predicted

• Rotation: Cole, Jordan, Espino, Voth, Laffey*^, THill, Arroyo^
• Bullpen: Martin, Solis*, Grace*, Brady^, Bacus, de los Santos, Runion, Velasquez^, Masset^, EDavis, Burnett*^
• Release Candidates: McGregor, Walters
• out of organization: Billings, Bleier*, Swynenberg, Fornataro, Meek, Runion, Lively, Gutierrez, Valverde, Delcarmen, RHill, Overton

AAA Actual

• starters: Cole, Jordan, Espino, THill, Voth
• spot starts/swingman: Laffey*
• bullpen: Martin, Solis*, Grace*, Runion, Massett, EDavis, Gott
• dl/restricted: Arroyo, Brady
• in AA: Bacus, de los Santos
• missing: no one
• cut/released/FAs: McGregor, Velasquez, Walters, Burnett (opted-out)

Discussion: No surprises in the Rotation: we predicted 7 guys in the AAA rotation competition and ended up with the 5 we predicted, a 6th as the swing-man/spot starter and the 7th (Arroyo) on the D/L for the time being.

The bullpen has some surprises: Gott as previously mentioned was projected in the majors; the other 6 bullpen members were in the 10 projected guys competing for the AAA spots.  Two guys got pushed to AA.  Brady starts on the D/L.  Both my release candidates did in fact get released, along with off-season MLFA Velasquez.  The real surprise making the AAA team was Masset.

Burnett opted out when he didn’t make the MLB team, but it wasn’t a stretch to predict that happening.

No real projection surprises though, all in all.  Nobody who we projected to start in AA got moved up; only a couple guys who got moved down (Bacus and de los Santos).  I’m slightly surprised de los Santos is in AA and it makes me question even more his 40-man add and usage last year (3 days of service time and now two options blown).

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AA Projected

• Rotation: Spann*, Giolito, Simms, Alderson, RLopez, Mapes, Gorski^
• Bullpen: Mendez, Harper*, Shackelford^, NLee*, Benincasa, Suero, Thomas*, Walsh*, Robinson^, Whiting^
• Release Candidates: Rauh, Bates, Self, Dupra
• out of organization: Purke*, Pivetta, Simmons, Demny, Ambriz, Gilliam

AA Announced

• starters: Giolito, Simms, RLopez, AWilliams, Mapes
• spot starts/swingman:
• bullpen: Mendez, Harper*, NLee*,  Suero, Fish*, Bacus,  Gutierrez, de los Santos
• In High-A: Thomas*, Robinson, Whiting, Rauh, Self
• dl/restricted: none
• missing: Spann*, Alderson, Shackelford, Benincasa, Bates
• cut/released/FAs: Gorski, Walsh*, Dupra

Discussion:

The big surprise here is that Austen Williams made the AA team; I had him at High-A.  Perhaps it isn’t THAT big of a surprise given how well he pitched last year, but it does seem to go away from the Nats’ proclivities to start guys at their prior season’s level and have them “earn” early to mid-season promotions.  He joins a pretty high powered duo of Giolito and Lopez.  Gorski was an off-season MLFA brought in for competition and he didn’t win.  Only one of my four release candidates was in fact released (Dupra): the other three got dumped to XLS or High-A, which is good for them but not good for the massive log-jam of recently drafted college arms who need spots in A-ball.

In the bullpen, we’ve talked before about the surprising release of Jake Walsh.  There’s 5 guys stuck in XST limbo for now, a couple of which are release candidates.  One name that popped out of the blue is Robert Fish, who signed an under-the radar MLFA deal in mid February and who apparently hasn’t pitched professionally in two full seasons.  He must have had a pretty good spring.

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High-A Projected

• Rotation: AWilliams, Fedde, Valdez, Dickson, Bach*, Van Orden,
• Bullpen: Johanssen, Amlung (swingman),  Napoli*, Orlan*, Glover, Brinley, Sylvestre*
• Release Candidates: RPena, Turnbull*
• out of organization: Schwartz, Howell, CDavis, MRodriguez, Cooper (just released)

High-A Announced

• starters: Fedde, Valdez, Estevez, LReyes,  Whiting
• spot starts/swingman: Sanchez,
• bullpen: Brinley, Glover, Johansen, Orlan*, Robinson, Self, Thomas*
• dl/restricted: Rauh, Sylvestre*,  Turnbull*
• missing: Bach*
• cut/released/FAs: Walsh, Dupra, Dickson, Van Orden, Amlung, Napoli*

Discussion: My High-A predictions show just how out of whack my “reading the stat lines” predictions can be, especially for starters.

In the Rotation, AWilliams earned a jump to AA.  I thought Dickson and Van Orden were solid rotation candidates; instead they got released.  Lastly, I thought both Estevez and Reyes were repeating Hagerstown; Estevez missed the whole season and Reyes posted a 4.82 ERA there last year.  Instead they’re opening day starters for Potomac.  Not even close here.

In the Bullpen, we got Johanssen, Orlan, Glover, Brinley, Sylvestre and Turnbull right (not too bad prediction wise), though the last couple guys are on the D/L and still may be release candidates.  Who did we miss on?  Robinson was an off-season MLFA (who signs MLFAs for high-A?), and Sanchez I had projected to repeat after posting a 4.86 in Hagerstown last year.

 

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Low-A Projected

• Rotation: LReyes, JRodriguez, ALee, Dickey, Hearn*, Crownover*
• Bullpen: MSanchez (swingman),  Guilbeau*, Borne*, Rivera Jr., Gunter, Peterson, Baez
• release candidate: Estevez, DWilliams, DRamos, Boghosian, Mooney, Pirro
• out of organization: Ullmann, KPerez, Mooneyham, Johns (just released)

Low-A Actual

• starters: JRodriguez, ALee, Hearn*, Crownover*, Guilbeau*, Bach,
• spot starts/swingman:
• bullpen: Rivera Jr, Peterson, Baez, VanVossen, LTorres, RPena, DeRosier,
• dl/restricted: JMorales
• missing: Dickey, Borne*, Gunter, DRamos, Mooney, Pirro
• cut/released/FAs: Amlung, Van Orden, Napoli*, DWilliams, Boghosian

Discussion

From a starter standpoint, we did a pretty good job projecting who would be in Hagerstown’s rotation.  Four of the Six projected candidates “seem” like they’re in the rotation (full disclosure, we’re kind of guessing who these teams are using as starters until we see the first turn through the rotation).  The misses?  LReyes, who surprisingly is in High-A, and Guilbeau, who I thought would be on the team but in a relief role.

In the bullpen; we missed on Sanchez (who made High-A), Borne and Gunter (both of whom are in XST for now).  In their place are a slew of guys who I was projecting to be elsewhere.  I thought both VanVossen and DeRosier were release candidates after poor 2015 seasons in Short-A; instead they’re in the opening day bullpen.  I had LTorres in the Short-A bullpen after mostly failing as a short-A starter.

Lastly there’s Bach and RPena; I had both projected in Potomac.  I thought Bach had a perfectly good Low-A season last year and has nothing yet to prove in the Sally League.  Pena returns to Hagerstown for the third time; he pitched in Low-A in 2013 and 2014.  You have to think this is a planned short stint before he returns to at least High-A.

No real surprises in the “Missing/XST” crew: Dickey is the biggest profile name here but it seems to me he was injured last  year so its hard to pass judgement on his stats anywhere.  Borne‘s numbers were basically identical to the likes of Hearn and Guilbeau’s; he missed out in the 2016 competition.  Gunter might make sense as a mid-season promotion to cover for injury.  Ramos was hurt most of the year last  year.

In the “release candidate” section, I was clearly wrong about Estevez.  DWilliams and Boghosian have already indeed been released.  And both Mooney/Pirro missed out on the full-season roster and are in XST limbo.

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Let the games begin!  Are there surprises for you guys in these rosters?

This is the 6th in the 2015 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Auburn/Short-A’s pitching staff for 2015.  Other parts of the 2015 series:

• Washington/MLB 2015 review
• Syracuse/AAA 2015 review
• Harrisburg/AA 2015 review
• Potomac/High-A 2015 review
• Hagerstown/Low-A 2015 review

For some historical perspective, here’s 2013’s version (featuring Jake Johanssen),  2012’s version (Brett Mooneyham was the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Nathan Karns the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Auburn/Short-A.  Had we done this series in 2014, we likely would have featured Reynaldo Lopez, who had a 0.75 ERA in 7 starts and 36 innings.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Auburn’s 2015 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Auburn 2015 page.  Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees.

A caveat before starting this post (and we’ll say this same thing in the GCL post): this is short-season ball, so nobody’s got more than a few dozen innings.  So yes this is absolutely going to be some “Small Sample Size” analysis.  Which in some cases is unfair to the player (to the good or to the bad).  It is what it is.

Auburn Pitching Staff movement throughout the year (* == lefty)

• Opening Day Rotation: Dickey/LTorres, JRodriguez, Fedde, Crownover*, Baez, Mills
• End-of-Season Rotation: Gilbeau*, Borne*, Baez, DeRosier, Hearn*, Crownover*
• End-of-Season spot starts/swingman: Valerio
• End-of-Season bullpen: Mooney, Pirro, Overton, Boghosian,  MRivera, Johns, LTorres, Van Vossen
• Mid-Season promotions: LReyes,  Bach*, KPerez, DWilliams, Glover, JMorales, Lee, Brinley,Fedde, Peterson, JRodriguez
• up-and-back: Johns, LTorres
• down-and-back: Feliz, Dickey
• demotions: Reynoso*, Mills*, Baez, Gunter
• dl/restricted: Bourque, AMartinez, McDowell, Sylvestri
• cut/released/FAs: Ullman, Webb*, Plouck*

Auburn starters.  The rotation started the season with several “tandem” starter pairs, not quite going to a full A/B starter set but getting relatively close.  Here’s an overview of the 12 starters used in 2015, starting with the original starters, going all the way to the rehab spot starts.

• Robbie Dickey had two bad starts in Hagerstown before getting dumped back to Auburn in time to get the ball on opening day.  From there the jury is kind of out: for the entire year: 6.65 ERA, 16/17 k/bb in 23ip (6 starts).  He was incredibly wild and then didn’t pitch after 7/25/15, accumulating just 23 IP on the year.  Was he hurt?  There was no record of a D/L trip, just an assignment back to XST after a while.  All in all, a pretty disappointing season for our 2014 4th round pick.  Where does he go from here?  Is the team just being too impatient with him, yanking him from Hagerstown after just a few innings?  Outlook for Next Season: attempting the Low-A rotation again.
• Jefry Rodriguez bounced between Short-A and Low-A again this season, starting in Hagerstown but pitching most of the year in Auburn.  At the end of the season, he led Auburn in both IP and starts.  All told; 4-10 with a 5.42 ERA between the two levels.  While he maintained a 2-1 K/BB ratio in Short-A, he was nearly 1/1 in Low-A (27/25 K/BB in 42.2 low-A innings).  The team likes him as a starter … but this is the 2nd year in a row he’s posted a 6+ ERA in low-A.  He’s still young though (he turned 22 mid-season) so I can see him repeating his 2015 season; in the Low-A rotation.  If he struggles again though, I think it may be time to move him to the bullpen and look at converting him to a late-innings reliever.  He can definitely strike guys out (67 Ks in 68 Short-A innings against college competition), so perhaps there’s a new stage in his career if he can’t figure out starting.  Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation.
• Erick Fedde threw 8 effective starts in Auburn, going 4-1, 2.57 ERA in Short-A Auburn with 36/8 in 35ip (8 starts), 2.60 fip, .346 babip.  He then got bumped up to Hagerstown where he finished out the season.  See Low-A write-up for more.  Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation to start.
• Matt Crownover went 1-4, 3.81 ERA in Short-A with 34/9 K/BB in 49.2 ip (13 app, 10 starts), 3.40 fip, .301 babip.  His whip was decent on the year (1.17), mostly due to his great K/BB ratio (4/1).  Nothing bad but nothing mind blowing out of Crownover’s numbers in Short-A.  Not a bad return for an under-slot ACC lefty starter.  I see him competing for the Low-A rotation; there’s no reason not to keep him moving up as a college draftee from the ACC.  Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation competition, likely in the pen.
  
• Joan Baez bounced around the system a bit in 2015, getting 5 starts in Auburn to the tune of a 7.13 ERA.  See GCL write-up for more.
• McKenzie Mills got hit hard in 4 appearances in Auburn before spending the rest of the season int the GCL.  See GCL write-up for more.
• Taylor Guilbeau went 3-3, 3.54 mostly in Short-A after starting briefly in the GCL with 31/9 K/BB in 51 ip (11/10 starts) .2.89 fip, .356 babip.  His FIP looks solid based on his competition but he may get bumped to the bullpen to focus on being a lefty reliever thanks to the large number of arms in the system.  I put him behind his fellow 2015 draftees Crownover and  Hearn in this regard thanks to his senior sign status and low club investment (fairly or otherwise; it is what it is).  Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation competition, likely in the pen.
• Taylor Hearn went 1-5, 3.56 in Short-A with a 38/13 K/BB in 43ip (10/10 starts), 3.40 fip, .346 babip.  Hearn joined his fellow lefty first 10 round starters in the Auburn rotation a couple of weeks into the short season and was completely effective, averaging nearly a K/inning with decent control.  He’s done nothing to jeopardize his advancement for 2016 and should compete for a low-A rotation gig.  Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation competition.
• Grant Borne went 1-4, 3.59 in Short-A with 32/7 K/BB in 47.2 ip (15 apps, 5 starts), 2.99 fip, .321 babip.  Its amazing how similar Hearn, Crownover, Guilbeau and Borne’s numbers were, each profiling as a command/control lefty starter in Short-A.  Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation competition with the rest of his fellow lefty 2015 draftees.
• Mariano Rivera Jr. got 3 starts before it was clear he needed to be pushed to relief; see the reliever’s section.
• Matthew DeRosier had two bad starts in Auburn before getting dumped back to the GCL; see the Rookie league write-up for more.
• Maximo Valero had 4 appearances and one start in Auburn after a late season promotion: see the GCL write-up for more.

Auburn Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps.  We’ll organize relievers by going by IP from most to least.  Anyone with less than 10 IP will get cursory analysis at the end.

• Luis Torres was Dickey’s “tandem” starter for a while, getting zero “starts” but pitching mostly longer stints usually on the same schedule as Dickey.  We saw this with several others and will treat them as “relievers” for the purposes of this post.  Season stats: 5-1, 5.66 ERA, 4.54 fip, 1.37 whip, 22/17 K/BB in 35 innings.  Torres got bumped up at season’s end to provide a bit of cover in Low-A but didn’t merit the promotion based on his production.  In his age 21 season he showed he still has some work to do and regressed badly from his 2014 production in Short-A.  Where does he go from here?  I think he’s destined to miss out on the Hagerstown bullpen, spend more time in XST and try Short-A again in 2016.  Outlook for Next Season: short-A bullpen.
• Mariano Rivera Jr, went 1-2, 5.45 ERA in Short-A with 26/3 K/BB in 33IP (19 app, 3 starts).  2.70 FIP, .388 babip.  Rivera was tried as a starter and quickly failed, getting moved to the pen, where he was much better.  Starter ERA: 13.00.  Reliever ERA: 2.63.  His seasonal ERA isn’t nearly as bad as it looks thanks to some bad luck; his FIP is good and his K/BB rate looks good as well.  He profiles like his father; slight, live arm, good stuff as a reliever.  I can see him moving up the ladder as a back-of-the-bullpen reliever.   Perhaps a disappointment that a 4th round pick was relegated to the bullpen after just three starts … but could be a quick moving arm on a team that clearly needs them.  Outlook for Next Season: low-A bullpen/closer.
• Adam Boghosian went 3-0, 4.28 era across 2 levels with 16/18 k/bb in 27ip, 5.59 fip, .162 babip in short-A.  Anytime you have more walks than strike-outs, its a bad thing.  And he posted a mediocre ERA despite an unbelievably low babip; his numbers are likely even worse with a longer sample size.  Another senior sign that may get the axe once full-season rosters get set next spring.  Outlook for Next Season: low-A bullpen/release candidate.
• Cody Gunter went 1-0 4.15 ERA, 23/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP for Short-A Auburn, 3.84 fip, .259 babip.  Gunter was drafted as a 3B and after two non-descript seasons in Auburn converted to the mound.  So far, results look promising; he maintained a K/inning ratio with good control and could be better based on the ERA-FIP delta.   I see him getting pushed to the Low-A bullpen in 2016.  Outlook for Next Season: low-A bullpen.
• Kevin Mooney, was 1-0, 5.40 ERA in Short-A with a 15/13 K/bb in 21.2 innings, 4.95 fip, .333 babip.  Not a great debut for the local kid Mooney, who was last seen blowing both super-regional games that enabled UVA to surprisingly make its way to the CWS (where even more surprisingly they ended up winning).  Far, far too many walks given how many punch-outs he had, his FIP was still way up there even given a BABIP not really that out of line.  Needs to step it up if he wants a full-season job.  Outlook for Next Season: low-A bullpen competition/release candidate.
• Tommy Peterson was 0-0, 2.66 in Auburn with 13/4 K/BB in 20 relief innings, 2.83 fip, .318 babip as part time closer.   Not too many innings to judge on here; looks like a good option for the Hagerstown 2016 bullpen.  He was one of the few Auburn hurlers from the 2015 class to get the bump up to low-A in 2015.  Outlook for Next Season: low-A bullpen competition.
• Connor Overton went 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA (13/5 K/BB in 19.1 IP) after getting cut loose from Miami’s short-A squad and quickly getting snapped up last July.  He’s an oddity; a 22-yr old MLFA already making the rounds of the lower minors.  He briefly got called up to AAA at season’s end but is currently un-attached.  With Washington’s glut of arms, i’m not sure he did enough to make the team think he was worth keeping on for a full-season spot and I think the Richmond product goes elsewhere (Atlee HS in Mechanicsburg and then ODU in Norfolk).  Outlook for Next Season: in another organization.
• Sam Johns blitzed short-A (1.42 ERA in 19 innings) after struggling in Hagerstown.  See Low-A write-up for more.
• Matt Pirro was 0-0 3.71 ERA  across two levels, ending in Short-A.  14/11 k/bb in 17ip, 4.52 fip, .372 babip in short-A.  Not great numbers; too many walks, but his ERA/FIP likely the result of a bit of unlucky babip.  In a battle to stay employed though going into next year by virtue of his senior sign status.   Outlook for Next Season: low-A bullpen/release candidate.
• John Feliz didn’t get a ton of innings in 2015: throwing just 17.1 across both short-season squads.  In Auburn he had a 4.38 ERA in 12 innings and didn’t pitch after July 28th (but didn’t go on the D/L).  He may have been hurt and just not officially gone on a D/L.  More or less a lost season for Feliz, who just turned 22, was an old IFA and has yet to perform outside of complex ball.  He may not get too many more chances; I see him getting one more shot at Short-A before getting cut loose.  Outlook for Next Season: short-A bullpen/release candidate.
• Ryan Brinley was unhittable in 10 innings in the NY Penn league and was bumped up; see the Low-A write-up for more.
• Other Relievers who had less than 10 IP in 2015
  • Jose Morales got blasted in two Low-A starts after three quick relief appearances (8ip total) in Auburn, then spent the rest of the year on the D/L.  See Low-A write-up for more.
  • Andrew Lee struck out 12 guys in 8 innings in the NY Penn and was bumped up.  See Low-A write-up for more.
    
  • Koda Glover struck out 11 guys in 6 innings in the NY Penn and was bumped up.  See Low-A write-up for more.
  • Mick VanVossen spent most of the season in the GCL; see rookie league write-up for more.
  • Cole Plouck got sent to Auburn, had two appearances in 10 days, gave up just 2 hits and one run in 5 innings … and then was released.  He had decent 2014 numbers in the GCL; this one is curious to me.  I guess the team saw all they needed to see in XST.  Outlook for Next Season: out of baseball.
  • Joey Webb was released 6/25/15, losing out in the numbers game when the 2015 short-season college draftees started flowing in.  He, like Plouck, clearly were not impressive enough during XST to merit any further consideration after run-of-the-mill 2014 seasons.  Outlook for Next Season: out of baseball.
  • Yorlin Reynoso pitched one game in the first week of the season, walked 6 guys and got demoted to the GCL.  See Rookie write-up for more.
  • Ryan Ullmann got stuck in XST to start the season, hooked up with Hagerstown 5 weeks into the season, got hit hard, was dumped to Auburn, had one appearance and then was summarily released.  Quite a quick downturn of events for Ullmann, who was always going to be a long shot (30th rounder out of a small school).  Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.
  • David Ramos threw 2.1 innings of rehab ball for Auburn before returning to Hagerstown: see low-A write-up for more.
  • Two guys (James Bourque, Anderson Martinez) both spent the whole season on the D/L; both are starters who should compete for spots in 2016 after the lost season.  Outlook for Next Season: Short-A rotation competition.
    
  • Another two guys (Chase McDowell, Michael Sylvestri) were put on the “restricted list” at some point in 2015, usually indicating voluntary retirement.  Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.

Summary

Auburn was not a good team this year; they were 35-58.  And a lot of that was due to the “brain drain” of the pitching staff; inside of a short season 11 guys got bumped up and beyond.  Some of them quickly dominated Short-A and earned their promotion, others trickled up as the season moved on.  In the end, the staff was anchored by a quartet of college lefty 2015 draftees with strikingly similar numbers, and it should be interesting to see how this group performs moving forward.

This is the 5th in the 2015 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Hagerstown/Low-A’s pitching staff for 2015.  Other parts of the 2015 series:

• Washington/MLB 2015 review
• Syracuse/AAA 2015 review
• Harrisburg/AA 2015 review
• Potomac/High-A 2015 review

For some historical perspective, here’s 2013’s version (featuring Pedro Encarnaction),  2012’s version (Aaron Barrett was the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Taylor Jordan the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Hagerstown/Low-A.  Had I done this post in 2014 I would have “featured” Lucas Giolito, who dominated in 2014 for the suns (10-2, 2.20 ERA).

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Hagerstown 2015 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Hagerstown 2015 page.   Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees.

Note; while its relatively easy to do reviews for the upper levels of the system, once we get lower we’re usually talking about a lot of short sample sizes.  I’ll depend on text from my “draft class” write-ups where appropriate.

Hagerstown Pitching Staff movement throughout the year (* == lefty)

• Opening Day Starters: AWilliams, Bach*, LReyes, Van Orden, Valdez
• End of Season starters:  Amlung, Bach*, Lee, Fedde, JRodriguez, LReyes
• End of Season spot starts/swingman:  MSanchez
• End of Season bullpen:  Napoli*, Cooper, DWilliams,  Glover, Brinley, KPerez, Peterson
• Mid-Season promotions: Mapes, Valdez,  Thomas*, Purke*, AWilliams, Orlan*, Walsh*, Rauh, Howell
• up-and-back: Amlung, AWilliams, Amlung
• down-and-back: Van Orden, LReyes, Bach*
• Mid-Season demotions:  Webb*, Ullman, JRodriguez, Dickey, Baez, Johns, LTorres, DeRosier
• End of Season DL: Estevez, DRamos, JMorales, Van Orden
• Mid-Season cut/released/FAs: Mooneyham*

Hagerstown starters.  The rotation started the season with AWilliams, Bach*, LReyes, Van Orden, Valdez.  18 guys got starts in 2015.  Here’s an overview of the starters used, starting with the original five starters, going all the way to the rehab spot starts.

• Austen Williams blitzed the Sally league (8-1 with a 2.10 ERA) and forced a promotion to Potomac mid-season, where he continued pitching well.  See High-A write-up for more.  Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation to start with an eye on quick promotion.
• Connor Bach: Posted a 6-4, 3.85 ERA with 106/69 K/BB in 110 ip (20 starts) in Low A as a member of the rotation for much of the season.  4.08 fip, .311 babip.  Not too shabby for a 21st round senior sign from a relatively unknown baseball school (VMI).  Perhaps too many walks, but nearly a K/inning in full-season ball portends well for his future.  At the very least he could move up as a lefty specialist.   Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation.
• Luis Reyes went 6-7 with a 4.82 ERA in 24 starts and 117.2 IP, both leading the Hagerstown squad.  1.42 whip, 4.87 fip.  Reyes signed relatively late for a Dominican player (at age 18) but has steadily progressed out of the DSL and through the short-season leagues.  This was his first stint in full-season ball and at age 20 could be excused for getting hit somewhat hard.  A 72/50 K/BB ratio isn’t promising; he maintained much better K/9 rates in the lower levels.  I figure he’ll repeat Low-A looking to improve his numbers and see if he can regain some of his swing and miss stuff.  Outlook for Next season: repeating Low-A rotation.
• Drew Van Orden went 5-5, 3.61 ERA for Hagerstown with 47/34 K/BB in 92ip (15 starts), 4.33 fip, .254 babip.  Not a bad season for the under-slot 2014 5th round senior sign, who’s clearly sticking around.  He was mostly a spot starter for Hagerstown this year, getting a bunch of starts during the turmoil of the rotation.  He ended the season on the DL after giving the team 92 decent innings.  His FIP is a bit weak thanks to overall lucky BABIP contact but he has given no reason not to put himself into the discussion for that same role in Potomac next year.  Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation competition.
• Philips Valdez dominated the Sally league, going 5-2 with a 1.47 ERA and quickly earned a promotion to Potomac.   See High-A write-up for more.   Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation
• Jefry Rodriguez bounced between Short-A and Low-A again this season, starting in Hagerstown, pitching most of the year in Auburn and ending in Hagerstown.  See the Short-A write-up for more.  Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation.
• Mario Sanchez was Hagerstown’s long-man/spot starter all year, getting 8 starts in 29 appearances and posting a 4.86 ERA along the way.  70/18 K/BB ratio in 90.2 innings, 1.28 whip, 4.18 whip, .301 babip.  Sanchez is even  younger than the other DSL grads on this team (he didn’t turn 21 until after the season was over, so 2016 will be his age-21 season).  Good control (nearly 4 strikeouts per walk) but was a bit homer prone (11 homers in 90 innings).  He’s undersized (6’1″) and I wonder if he’s not destined to continue to be this rubber-armed innings eater for the organization.  Its the same way he’s been used all along; few starts but lots of IP per appearance.  I also think he needs to improve his numbers before moving up, and he’s  young enough to repeat a level without really stalling his progress.  Outlook for Next season: Low-A swingman again.
• Justin Amlung is a bit of an oddity; he’s was a 24-yr old MLFA after getting cut from the Cubs’ high-A affiliate in May of 2015.  The Nats signed him and had him repeating Low-A for his third straight year.  He (like Sanchez) served as a swing-man, getting 19 appearances and 8 starts for Hagerstown, posting a 4.22 ERA along the way.  He had a great 42/7 K/BB ratio in 64 low-A innings, 1.14 whip, 3.70 fip.  He was promoted towards the end of the season and had a nice stretch for Potomac before the seasons’ end.  He was immediately declared a MLFA but has re-signed for 2016.  Outlook for Next season: high-A bullpen/swingman.
• Matt Purke had 8 starts and 32 IP for Hagerstown during his tour of the Nats farm system in 2015: see AA write-up for more.
• Erick Fedde evenly split his season between Short-A and Hagerstown.  He was 4-1, 2.57 ERA in Short-A Auburn with 36/8 in 35ip (8 starts), 2.60 fip, .346 babip.  He then got bumped up to Hagerstown where he threw another 29 innings across 6 starts with lesser stats (1-2, 4.34 ERA).  A good  post-Tommy  John debut season for  our 2014 1st rounder Fedde, despite the rather restrictive innings limits put on him; he was limited to just 5ip per start for a total of 64ip on the season between two levels.  Given his mediocre stats in Hagerstown and the Nats historical promotion schedule, he could start 2016 in the Hagerstown rotation with a quick move up to the Potomac rotation.  I could be wrong though; looking at the state of my projected High-A rotation I could also easily see him starting the year in Potomac.  There’s just so many arms competing for the Low-A rotation he may be forced up.  Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation.
  
• Andrew Lee posted a 5-1, 1.63 ERA across 3 levels, ending up in Hagerstown where he spent most of his first pro season.  47/10 K/BB in 38.2 innings (16/5 starts), 2.19 fip, .250 babip specifically in lowA where he spent most of his time.  An intriguing arm for sure and more than held his own in 5 Low-A starts.  He’s the fastest riser so far of the 2015 draft class and he’s easily in the mix for the Hagerstown 2016 rotation.  Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation to start; could be a fast riser.
  
• Jose Morales got blasted in two Low-A starts after three quick relief appearances in Auburn, then spent the rest of the year on the D/L.  Not much to glean from his year; is he a starter or a reliever?  He only threw 30-some odd relief innings in 2014; I think he’s being used as a long-man/spot starter arm for now.  I would guess he’ll start 2016 in XST with an eye of hooking on with Short-A again.  Outlook for Next season: Short-A bullpen.
• Ryan Ullmann got stuck in XST to start the season, hooked up with Hagerstown 5 weeks into the season, got hit hard, was dumped to Auburn, had one appearance and then was summarily released.  Quite a quick downturn of events for Ullmann, who was always going to be a long shot (30th rounder out of a small school).  Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.
• Other Guys who got starts for Hagerstown:
  • Joan Baez got 3 starts for Hagerstown in June, got hammered, and spent the rest of the year in short-season ball.  See GCL write-up for more.
  • Jeff Howell had two starts for Hagerstown before getting a few more in Potomac as he converted to the mound.  See High-A write-up for more.
  • Brian Rauh had two “rehab” starts for Hagerstown and spent most of the year in Harrisburg.  See AA write-up for more.
  • Robbie Dickey had two starts in Hagerstown before getting dumped back to Auburn.  See Short-A write-up for more.
  • Robert Orlan had one spot-start for Hagerstown; see the reliever section.
  • Wirkin Estevez spent the entire season on the D/L: he’ll compete for a Low-A rotation spot in 2016.

Hagerstown Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps.  We’ll organize relievers by going by IP from most to least.  Anyone with less than 10 IP will get cursory analysis at the end.

• Andrew Cooper: 2-2, 3.53 ERA with 35/16 K/BB in 63.2 relief IP for Low-A Hagerstown, 3.63 fip, .283 babip.  Improved his numbers across the board while repeating Low-A.  Still isn’t getting the K/9 we’d like to see though.  He’ll be 24 in High-A next year in what probably is a make or break season.  Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.
• David Napoli went 7-5, 4.01 ERA with 62/36 K/BB in 60 relief IP mostly for LowA Hagerstown.  3.57 fip, .289 babip.  He started with Potomac but spent most of the year in Hagerstown, despite turning 25 during the season.  If anything,  his numbers took a step back from his 2014 Hagerstown campaign, and given his age and the glut of arms in the system, time may be running out.  Or maybe not: i mean, he signed for $15k and basically cost the team nothing and eats innings; that kind of guy is useful to have around.  Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.
• Robert Orlan went 3-1, 3.00 ERA with 85/28 K/BB ratio in 72 relief IP between LowA and HighA.  Orlan bounced between Potomac and Hagerstown all season, ending up in HighA with pretty good numbers in a “more than a loogy” role.  Especially impressive is 85 Ks in just 72 ip.  He’s older for these levels, inarguably, but could put himself in a good position by continuing to succeed in 2016.  I see him in the Potomac bullpen again with an eye towards a June promotion to AA when the short-season promotions come due.   Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.
• Samuel Johns went 3-4, 4.31 ERA between LowA and ShortA with 39/17 k/bb in 62.2 relief innings, 4.63 fip, .290 babip in lowA.  He struggled in LowA, but then dropped back to ShortA and was dominant.  Not great, but certainly not bad for a 31st round 5th year senior as compared to what has happened to other 5th year senior signs on this list.  Maybe not the best stuff, but has been effective.  My guess is that he either makes the Hagerstown team next spring or is cut loose, but the fact that he hung around this long gives him some more room to work with.  Outlook for Next season: Low-A bullpen.
• Kevin Perez threw 36 relatively effective innings for Hagerstown after throwing 18 relatively ineffective innings for Potomac to start the year.  The team signed him as a MLFA early in 2015 after he was dumped out of the Low-A Royals affiliate but I doubt he showed the team enough to stick with him given the number of arms rising out of the short-season rosters.  Outlook for Next season: out of the organization.
• Deion Williams, went 1-2, 5.46 ERA with 22/18 K/BB in 29.2 relief innings with Hagerstown.  Williams was drafted as a SS but converted to the mound after a year or so.  Since then, he’s struggled, somehow making it onto the full-season Hagerstown roster in June after sitting in XST for two months.  There, he continued not to impress; his career ERA is now 6.12 across 103IP and the three lower levels of the minors.  I could see 2016 being a “make it or break it” year for him; he either makes the full season bullpen or he’s cut.  Outlook for Next season: Low-A bullpen competition.
• Koda Glover went 1-1, 1.80 ERA across 2 levels, getting promoted to Low-A after just 6 IP in Short-A.  Of course, in those 6ip he gave up just one hit and struck out 11, so it was pretty clear he was over-qualified for the league.  For the season: 38/2 K/BB in 30 ip (19app), 2.44 fip, .288 babips in LowA where he spent most of the year.  38 to 2 (!!)  K/BB ratio in 30 innings.  No wonder he was an over-slot deal; the 2015 draftee is one of the highest rising guys in the class so far.  Glover profiled very well and should be in the mix for a High-A bullpen slot in 2016 already.  Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.
• Brett Mooneyham was 0-2 with a 6.41 ERA in 19 ineffective innings for Low-A Hagerstown before the Nats finally cut the cord and released him on 6/3/15.  Mooneyham was in Low-A for the third successive season, having failed to make the cut in Potomac in each of 2013 and 2014.  You’d have to say that he’s one of the more higher-profile drafting failures of the Mike Rizzo era.  Or maybe not; the team had to go over-slot to sign Giolito and may have skimped for the rest of the draft.  Outlook for Next season: out of the organization.
• Ryan Brinley went 1-4 1.44 ERA  across 3 levels this year with a 16/1 K/BB in 31.1 ip, 3.85 fip, .292 babip in low-A (where he ended up).  Great 27th round find so far in Brinley, who may not have a ton of swing and miss but certainly seems to have some command (1 BB in 31 innings??).  Could be a nice little middle relief option going forward, someone who can keep his team in games.  I could see him in the High-A bullpen next year based on his command of Low-A.   Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.
• Jake Walsh threw 17 scoreless innings in Hagerstown before getting bumped up to High-A.  See High-A write-up for more.
• David Ramos threw 13 innings of middle relief for Hagerstown before getting hurt; he spent most of the summer going “rehab” assignments all throughout short-season ball before being “activated” once the full-season was done.  Not much to glean from his season; his ERAs were not pretty anywhere he went.  He’s now 24, in his fourth pro season outside of the DSL and has yet to post an ERA below 6.46 in any of his multiple stops.  Honestly, I’m surprised he made the full-season bullpen in 2015.  I’d guess he’ll take another shot at Hagerstown’s bullpen in 2016 and if he doesn’t make it, he could be facing an April 1 release.  Outlook for Next season: Low-A bullpen competition.
• Other Relievers who got less than 10 IP for Hagerstown this year:
  • Tommy Peterson: threw 6ip in the last week of the season: see Short-A write-up.
  • Tyler Mapes threw 6 shutout IP before getting bumped to Potomac: see High-A write-up.
  • Joey Webb threw 5 innings early in the season before ending up in Auburn.  See Short-A write-up.
  • Luis Torres threw 3 innings to cover in mid July: See Short-A write-up.
  • Diomedes Eusebio is normally a 1B and threw one inning at some point.

Summary

It was a successful season for Hagerstown hurlers; I count 6-7 guys who earned promotions by pitching well in Hagerstown.  A good number of them should feature in 2016 for either Potomac or Harrisburg.  This didn’t help the Suns much, as they finished both halves right around .500, not quite good enough for a playoff spot.  2016’s staff will have some familiarity to it; I think a good portion of the 2016 opening day rotation will look just like the 2015 end-of-season rotation, mirroring the Nats recent habit of having players repeat levels in overlapping seasons and doing mid-season promotions.

 

Following in the footsteps of the stat review of the 2015 draft class, here’s the same analysis for the 2014 draft class, looking at their 2015 numbers and making some snap judgements.

I last did this project in 2013 (got too busy this time last fall at a new client), so this is the first time I’ve really run through the 2014 draft class in this detail.  In fact, getting into the lower picks I don’t even recognize some of the names, having only really focused on the top 10 guys at the time.  Its definitely interesting to see where they stand one year on.

Web links to use while reading:

• Stats are pulled from milb.com and/or fangraphs.com; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats
• The MLB Draft Tracker (which I believe is the best draft tracker out there) is the best place to get draft class information.
• The Big Board and the Draft Tracker are the goto resources for prospects for any Nats fan.
• Baseball-reference.com’s draft database
• My working XLS in Google for all this data.

Unlike the 2015 draft class analysis, we’ve already shedded a large number of 2014 draftees.  And mostly we have full seasons worth of work on which to judge.

Without further ado:

Round 1: Erick Fedde RHP COL jr from UNLV.  4-1, 2.57 ERA in Short-A Auburn with 36/8 in 35ip (8 starts), 2.60 fip, .346 babip.  He then got bumped up to Hagerstown where he threw another 29 innings across 6 starts with lesser stats (1-2, 4.34 ERA).  A good  post-Tommy  John debut season for Fedde, despite the rather restrictive innings limits put on him; he was limited to just 5ip per start for a total of 64ip on the season between two levels.  I’m not sure why they were so restrictive: he threw many more innings in his college career (90, 96 and then 76 before getting injured in 2014).  I guess the theory was to limit him to half his pre-injury innings limit first  year back, with a goal of getting back to that level of production in 2016.  You Look for him to be in the Potomac rotation on perhaps a 90-100 innings limit for 2016 (or, exactly what Giolito did his 2nd year back from TJ surgery in 2014).  Trending up.

Round 2: Andrew Suarez LHP COL jr  from Miami (FL).  Did not sign: returned to Miami for his senior year where he led his team to the CWS before getting shelled in Omaha.  Drafted in the 2nd round again, slightly later than the Nats did and signed for slot for San Francisco.  He did not significantly improve his draft position by playing college another year, but may have gotten more cash (we do not know what bonus amount he declined in 2014).

Round 3: Jakson Reetz, C  Norris HS (NE).  Slashed just .212/.326/.248  between ShortA/GCL with 37/13 k/bb in 113 Abs, 0homers 3sb just 36 games.  A curious season for Reetz: why was he at short-A to begin with?  He seemed to play mostly half and half time with an older DSL grad catcher and seemed outmatched in the league; why not just bring him back to Florida for another year of seasoning?  Definitely a set-back year for Reetz.  What do they do with him next year?  Try him at Low-A after doing poorly in Short-A?  Have him repeat the rookie league for the third time?  Where’s the power?  a .248 slugging percentage is incredibly weak.  Trending Down.

Round 4: Robbie Dickey, RHP  from Blinn College (TX).  0-3, 6.65 ERA starting in Hagerstown and getting demoted to Auburn.  16/17 k/bb in 23ip (6 starts).  He was incredibly wild and then didn’t pitch after 7/25/15, accumulating just 23 IP on the year.  Was he hurt?  There was no record of a D/L trip, just an assignment back to XST after a while.  All in all, a pretty disappointing season for our 4th round pick.  Where does he go from here?  Is the team just being too impatient with him, yanking him from Hagerstown after just a few innings?  Trending Down.

Round 5: Drew Van Orden RHP COL sr from Duke.  5-5, 3.61 ERA  for Hagerstown with 47/34 K/BB in 92ip (15 starts), 4.33 fip, .254 babip.  Not a bad season for an under-slot senior sign, who’s clearly sticking around.  He was mostly a spot starter for Hagerstown this year, getting a bunch of starts during the turmoil of the rotation.  He ended the season on the DL after giving the team 92 decent innings.  His FIP is a bit weak thanks to overall lucky BABIP contact but he has given no reason not to put himself into the discussion for that same role in Potomac next year.  Trending Steady.

Round 6: Austen Williams RHP COL jr from Texas State.  12-8, 2.58 ERA while making the jump from Hagerstown to Potomac (with one AAA spot-start).  106/33 K/BB in 139.2 ip (25 starts).  He was 8-1 for Hagerstown before getting bumped up and continued to be effective all year.  Great season for Williams, putting his name on the map in the organization and starting to get some notice in the prospect rankings (he was #14 in the farm system in J.P. Schwartz‘s topprospectalert post-2015 rankings and in the upper 20s for Scout.com and MLB.com).  In the mix for a AA rotation spot in 2016.  Trending up.

Round 7: Dale Carey CF COL sr from Miami (FL).  Slashed .234/.340/.345 for Hagerstown with 91/66 K/BB in 415ABs, 8 homers, 10/9 SB/CS playing CF.  Another under-slot/cost savings senior sign who is sticking around, Carey showed some power but not great overall numbers playing CF this year.  He’ll be pushed out of CF by budding uber-prospect Victor Robles unless Carey can earn a promotion, which may be hard to do.  Needs to show a better hit tool if he wants to keep a job.  Trending Steady.

Round 8: Jeff Gardner, LF COL sr from Louisville.  Slashed .226/.296/.345  in Hagerstown with 90/38 K/BB in 403ABs, 5 homers, 8/7 SB/CS playing LF.  Unlike his fellow senior sign and outfield partner Carey, Gardner is stuck in the unathletic corner and isn’t showing nearly the power or bat that he needs to stick around.  He’ll get pushed out of a corner job in Hagerstown for 2016 and may lose out in a numbers game.  Trending down.

Round 9: Austin Byler, 1B COL jr for Nevada (Reno).  Did not sign: returned to Nevada for his senior season, led his team into the CWS playoffs and showed a ton of potential .. .but slipped out of the top10 rounds.  He was the first pick of the non-bonus controlled rounds, in the 11th by Arizona, meaning his fortunes dipped slightly by staying in college another year.  One last unfortunate footnote; a quick google search shows that Byler was suspended for PED-usage at the end of the 2015 season.  Whoops.

Round 10: Matthew Page, RF COL sr  from Oklahoma Baptist U.   Slashed .270/.362/.384 between ShortA and LowA, with 54/39 K/BB in 263ABs, 2 homers, 6 sbs.  Not a bad return for a $30k bonus on a college senior from a small school.   He isn’t lighting the world on fire, but he’s keeping his head above water.  He’ll compete with his fellow senior sign OFs Carey and Gardner for a spot in the 2016 Potomac outfield.  Trending Steady.

Round 11: Weston Davis RHP Manatee HS (FL).  He did not play (injured) in 2015.  He had just 16 IP in all of 2014 for the GCL Nats.  No word on the nature of the injury, but 16IP in two pro years is never a good start to a career.  Trending down.

Round 12: Domenick Mancini RHP from Miami-Dade CC South.  He was released 6/27/15; no 2015 stats after 14.2 IP in 2014.  He lost out in the numbers game thanks to the massive influx of college arms competing for Short-A roster spots.

Round 13: Austin Davidson, 3B COL jr  from Pepperdine.  Slashed just .202/.302/.314 for Hagerstown with 47/26 K/BB in 258 Abs, 6 homers, 6/7 sb/cs playing 2B and 3B.  His bat definitely took a step back in Low-A and there’s a glut of middle infielders in the 2015 class.  He may not be long for the organization.  Trending down.

Round 14: James Bourque RHP COL jr from Michigan.  dnp – injured; no IP in 2015.  He was in the Auburn rotation for 2014 and pitched adequately, but never got started in 2015.  Lets hope he makes it back to compete for a job in 2016.  Trending Steady.

Round 15: Ryan Ripken 1B COL soph from Indian River State (FL) Slashed .250/.296/.391 with 15/5 K/BB in 92ABs while repeating the Gulf Coast league.  A curious case; why so little playing time at age 22, repeating the GCL?  The team had all spring to evaluate him yet put a senior nominal slot signee (David Kerian) at 1B in Auburn instead of Ripken.  Is he hurt?  Is he just being rostered because of his name?  Trending down.

Round 16: Cole Plouck LHP from Pima CC (AZ): went 1-0, 1.80 ERA in a 5 inning stint in Auburn… and then was released on 6/29/15.  Why??  Such a strange case; why send him to Vermont if you’re going to release him a few days later?  Understood if he gets lit up maybe, but it just seems odd timing.  It does not look like he’s picked up elsewhere, so perhaps it was a “retirement.”

Round 17: Alec Keller CF COL sr from Princeton.  Slashed .294/.341/.374 while getting promoted from LowA->HighA.   63/30 K/BB in 425 Abs, 0 homers, 11/9 Sb/cs playing CF.  Not bad for a most unlikely college senior sign.  If he can keep the average and OBP up and perhaps improve his SB success rate, he could put himself in a pretty good position.  Trending up.

Round 18: McKenzie Mills,  LHP, Sprayberry Senior HS (GA).  0-5, 7.27 ERA  with 24/28 K/BB in 34.2 ip across two levels.  He posted a 4.46 fip, .405 babip  while in Short-A then got dropped back to the Rookie league.   Rough season for Mills, who couldn’t make the jump to short-A, then struggled when back in rookie ball.  Just way too many walks to be effective, but likely hangs around a bit longer since he can just hang out in XST and try to pick back up on next year’s short season squads again.  Trending down.

Round 19: Clay Williamson,  RF COL jr from Cal State Fullerton.  Slashed .211/.318/.316  in 5 Auburn games and then was released 6/29/15 as the 2015 signees started rolling in.   Never really impressed in 2014 (hitting .236 in short season) and may wish he had stayed in school instead of signing as a 19th round junior draftee.

Round 20: Bryan Langlois, RF COL jr from Pepperdine: no 2015 stats, was in XST the entire season.  He had 141 mostly non-descript ABs in Auburn last  year, then never got assigned this year.  But, he wasn’t released either; is he injured?  Converting to a new position?  Trending down.

Round 21: Connor Bach, LHP COL sr from Virginia Military Institute.  Posted a 6-4, 3.85 ERA with 106/69 K/BB in 110 ip (20 starts) in Low A as a member of the rotation for much of the season.  4.08 fip, .311 babip.  Not too shabby for a 21st round senior sign from a relatively unknown baseball school.  Perhaps too many walks, but nearly a K/inning in full-season ball portends well for his future.  At the very least he could move up as a lefty specialist.  Trending up.

Round 22: Daniel Salters, C COL soph  from Dallas Baptist: did not sign: returned to DBU for his junior season and then was drafted by Cleveland in the 13th round of 2015 draft.  He had a good 2015 short-season, so going back to school definitely helped his career.

Round 23: Chris Riopedre, SS COL jr, East Tennessee State.  Went 1-4 in one game for Auburn this year and then was released on 6/25/15.  He only hit .214 in Auburn last  year, and the team drafted a ton of MIF players in 2015, but it does seem harsh to make the kid go all the way to Vermont just to release him after *one game*.

Round 24: Kyle Simmons RHP COL jr Texas Lutheran U.  Assigned to GCL but dnp – injured and no IP in 2015.  He had just a 5.03 ERA in limited innings last year in the GCL and now missed this year.  As a small college junior draftee, he’ll be entering his 3rd pro season with just 19 poor innings of rookie ball performance; hard to see him making an impact.  Trending down.

Round 25: Kyle Bacak C COL sr  from Texas Christian U.  He went 4-28 for Auburn last year and was released 1/20/15.

Round 26: Chase McDowell RHP COL 5S  Rice (TX): retired 4/9/15 after putting up a 4.50 ERA in 28IP for Auburn last year.  If I had to guess, he probably lost out on a full season job, was looking at sitting around in XST until June and (as an older guy, a 5th year senior) may have looked at the guys in camp who were all 4-5  years younger and called it quits.  I had a friend who did exactly this: graduated a 4-year program as a highly decorated college player, then was sent to short-season ball.  He got all the way to Idaho or some random place and looked at his teammates: he said they were all just as good as he was but all 3 years younger and mostly Dominican.  He had a college degree, a job waiting for him and came to a quick realization that he could push for several years of below-minimum wage money looking at an uphill battle where his age worked against him, or he could just face reality and start his life.  You wonder how often this really happens.

Round 27: Conor Keniry SS COL sr Wake Forest U.  Slashed .250/.323/.310 while moving up from ShortA->LowA.  27/10 K/BB in 116ABs, 1hr, 3sbs as 2B.  Not bad; he was clearly the backup middle infielder “guy who can play any infield position in a pinch” guy for Hagerstown.  Can he stay in that role?  Maybe, maybe not.  He’ll have plenty of competition for that spot in 2016 thanks to a slew of 2B/SS draftees in 2015 plus rising DSL players.  Trending Steady.

Round 28: Kida De La Cruz, RHP from Volunteer State CC (TN).  Went 0-0, 5.43 ERA in just 1.2 IP for GCL in 2015.  But he has no injuries listed.  He threw 18 rather non descript innings for the GCL last year too.  Perhaps they just don’t bother with D/L postings for kids on teams based out of spring training facilities since the lines seem rather blurred between “XST” and “GCL.”  There were 4 or 5 guys this year who spent the entire year in “Extended Spring Training” or “To Be Determined” fashion, including a couple of very long-serving minor league arms (see the final column in the Big Board link).  Either way, De La Cruz is now 21, has 20 innings in GCL with more walks than strikeouts; hard to see him making an impact.  Trending down.

Round 29: DJ Jauss, RHP COL 5S from U. Mass. Amherst: was released 3/26/15 after getting hit hard in the GCL last season.  Just no room for a guy who is now 25 who couldn’t cut it in the rookie league.

Round 30: Tyler Mapes RHP COL sr from Tulane U. (LA).  Went 7-3, 2.23 ERA with 75/17 K/BB in 96.2 ip (8 starts) between  LowA->HighA, 2.78 fip, .324 babip.  Ended the year in Potomac’s rotation.  What a great result set for a 30th round college senior sign.  At one point he was even up in AA, though he had no appearances.  Good K/BB ratio, good peripherals.  Great find from the draft team.  Trending up.

Round 31: Samuel Johns RHP COL 5S U. Evansville (IN).  Went 3-4, 4.31 ERA between LowA and ShortA with 39/17 k/bb in 62.2 relief innings, 4.63 fip, .290 babip in lowA.  He struggled in LowA, but then dropped back to ShortA and was dominant.  Not great, but certainly not bad for a 31st round 5th year senior as compared to what has happened to other 5th year senior signs on this list.  Maybe not the best stuff, but has been effective.  My guess is that he either makes the Hagerstown team next spring or is cut loose, but the fact that he hung around this long gives him some more room to work with.  Trending Steady.

The rest of the 2014 draft class was HS kids who were long shots to sign and a Juco kid in the 40th who already had a transfer agreement to a good baseball school; one more piece of evidence to perhaps shorten the draft to 35 or even 30 rounds?  Here’s a quick summary.

Round 32: Cary, Elliott CF Clackamas HS (OR): did not sign: honored commitment to Oregon State.
Round 33: Casey, Clay CF DeSoto Central HS (MS): did not sign: honored commitment to Mississippi
Round 34: Skoug, Evan C Libertyville HS (IL): did not sign: honored commitment to TCU
Round 35: Doyle, Tommy RHP Flint Hill School (VA): did not sign: honored commitment to Virginia.  At UVA, Doyle played an integral part in getting UVA out of the regional but did not really factor after that.
Round 36: Styles, John Henry LHP Episcopal HS (TX): did not sign: honored commitment to Stanford
Round 37: Brodey, Quinn LHP Loyola HS (CA): did not sign: honored commitment to Stanford
Round 38: Fairchild, Stuart RF Seattle Prep (WA): did not sign: honored commitment to Wake Forest
Round 39: Littell, Jon OF Stillwater HS (OK): did not sign: honored commitment to OK State
Round 40: Hill, Jacob LHP JUCO Orange Coast Coll. (CA): did not sign: transferred to U San Diego, then was drafted by Cleveland in the 32nd round of 2015 but had no 2015 innings as far as I can tell.

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Trending Summary:

• Trending Up (5): Fedde, Williams, Keller, Bach, Mapes
• Trending Steady (6): Van Orden, Carey, Page, Bourque, Keniry, Johns
• Trending Down (10): Reetz, Dickey, Gardner, Davis, Davidson, Ripken, Mills, Langlois, Simmons, De La Cruz
• Did Not Sign in 2014 (12): Suarez, Byler, Salters, Cary, Casey, Skoug, Doyle, Styles, Brodey, Fairchild, Littell, Hill
• Released/Retired (7): Mancini, Plouck, Williamson, Riopedre, Bacak, McDowell, Jauss

Executive Summary

While I still think this draft was a failure for the lack of Suarez and Byler signings, we are seeing some great surprises from later picks Keller, Bach and Mapes.  Reetz and Dickey under-performance hurts the class too.  Fedde’s return was good, but he needs to make himself into a legit #3 starter prospect for me to start thinking more favorably about this class.  However, 19 out of 40 picks either never signed or are already gone after just one year, and another 10 are trending towards a release instead of production .. this can’t be good.  Lotta red in that trending summary.

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PS: I created an XLS to do this analysis; if you prefer, you can see my working XLS in Google for all this data which is also listed as a link to the right (2015 Stats for 2014 Draft Class); quick XLS below:

Round	Player/Pos	Level	2015 Level	2015 Basic Stats
1	Fedde, Erick RHP	COL jr	ShortA	4-1, 2.57 ERA
2	Suarez, Andrew LHP	COL jr	did not sign: returned to Miami
3	Reetz, Jakson C	HS	ShortA->GCL	.212/.326/.248
4	Dickey, Robbie RHP	JUCO	LowA->ShortA	0-3, 6.65 ERA
5	Van Orden, Drew RHP	COL sr	LowA	5-5, 3.61 ERA
6	Williams, Austen RHP	COL jr	LowA->HighA (with 1 AAA spot start)	12-8, 2.58 ERA
7	Carey, Dale “D.K.” CF	COL sr	LowA	.234/.340/.345
8	Gardner, Jeff LF	COL sr	LowA	.226/.296/.345
9	Byler, Austin 1B	COL jr	did not sign: returned to Nevada
10	Page, Matthew RF	COL sr	ShortA->LowA	.270/.362/.384
11	Davis, Weston RHP	HS	GCL (DL)	dnp – injured
12	Mancini, Domenick RHP	CC	released (2015)
13	Davidson, Austin 3B	COL jr	LowA	.202/.302/.314
14	Bourque, James RHP	COL jr	ShortA	dnp – injured
15	Ripken, Ryan 1B	COL soph	GCL	.250/.296/.391
16	Plouck, Cole LHP	CC	released (2015)	1-0, 1.80 ERA
17	Keller, Alec CF	COL sr	LowA->HighA	.294/.341/.374
18	Mills, McKenzie LHP	HS	ShortA->GCL	0-5, 7.27 ERA
19	Williamson, Clay RF	COL jr	released (2015)	.211/.318/.316
20	Langlois, Bryan RF	COL jr	XST	no 2015 stats
21	Bach, Connor LHP	COL sr	LowA	6-4, 3.85 ERA
22	Salters, Daniel C	COL soph	did not sign: returned to DBU
23	Riopedre, Chris SS	COL jr	released (2015)	.250/.250/.250
24	Simmons, Kyle RHP	COL jr	GCL (DL)	dnp – injured
25	Bacak, Kyle C	COL sr	released (2015)
26	McDowell, Chase RHP	COL 5S	retired (2015)
27	Keniry, Conor SS	COL sr	ShortA->LowA	.250/.323/.310
28	De La Cruz, Kida RHP	CC	GCL	0-0, 5.43 ERA
29	Jauss, DJ RHP	COL 5S	released (2015)
30	Mapes, Tyler RHP	COL sr	LowA->HighA	7-3, 2.23 ERA
31	Johns, Samuel RHP	COL 5S	ShortA->LowA	3-4, 4.31 ERA
32	Cary, Elliott CF	HS	did not sign: Oregon State
33	Casey, Clay CF	HS	did not sign: Mississippi
34	Skoug, Evan C	HS	did not sign: TCU
35	Doyle, Tommy RHP	HS	did not sign: Virginia
36	Styles, John Henry LHP	HS	did not sign: Stanford
37	Brodey, Quinn LHP	HS	did not sign: Stanford
38	Fairchild, Stuart RF	HS	did not sign: Wake Forest
39	Littell, Jon OF	HS	did not sign: OK State
40	Hill, Jacob LHP	JUCO	did not sign: U San Diego

Inspired by a MLBpipeline.com’s similar data for their top 100 players, here’s a look at the Nats top 30 prospects, where they’re starting the 2015 season, and where we expect to see them by year’s end.  I’ve also thrown in where they were last year and a prediction of where they’ll be at year’s end.  (Along the same theme,  here’s where all 300 named players from Keith Law‘s per-system top 10s are starting as well).

For my top list of prospects, I’m using MLB.com’s list and rankings … and have thrown in Trea Turner in his approximate MLB ranking (around 4th-5th in our system).

Rank	Name	2014 Location(s)	2015 Opening Day Location	2015 Eventual Primary Location	2015 Projected Ending Location
1	Lucas Giolito	Low-A	XST	High-A	High-A/AA if he excels
2	Michael Taylor	AAA to MLB debut	MLB	AAA/MLB injury dependent	MLB bench
3	A.J. Cole	AA to AAA	AAA	AAA primarily/MLB 9/1 callup	MLB debut
4	Reynaldo Lopez	Short-A to Low-A	XST	High-A	High-A/AA if he excels
4.5	Trea Turner	Low-A Fort Wayne (SD)	AA (SD)	High-A /AA ?	AA, especially if he’s starting there for SD
5	Joe Ross	High-A to AA	AA	AA	AAA with good AA performance
6	Erick Fedde	College/HS (UNLV)	XST (DL)	GCL	Short-A
7	Jakson Reetz	GCL	XST	Short-A	Short-A
8	Wilmer Difo	Low-A	High-A	High-A	High-A
9	Drew Ward	Low-A	High-A	High-A	High-A
10	Austin Voth	Low-A to AA	AA	AA	AAA with good AA performance
11	Pedro Severino	High-A	AA	AA	AA
12	Nick Pivetta	Low-A	High-A	High-A	High-A
13	Jefry Rodriguez	Short-A to Low-A	XST	Low-A	Low-A
14	Brian Goodwin	AAA to MLB debut	XST (DL)	AAA	MLB depth if he can rebound
15	Victor Robles	DSL	XST	GCL	GCL
16	Felipe Rivero	AA	AAA	AAA full-time	AAA
17	Drew Vettleson	AA	AA	AA	AAA since he’s repeating AA
18	Rafael Bautista	Low-A	High-A	High-A	High-A
19	Jake Johansen	Low-A	High-A	High-A	High-A
20	Spencer Kieboom	Low-A	High-A	High-A	High-A
21	Robbie Dickey	Short-A to Low-A	XST	Low-A	Low-A
22	Matt Skole	AA	AA	AAA	AAA , MLB bench if he regains his power
23	Tony Renda	High-A	AA	AA	AA
24	Anderson Franco	DSL	XST	GCL	GCL
25	Taylor Hill	AAA to MLB debut	AAA	AAA as starter depth	MLB depth as needed
26	Raudy Read	Short-A	Low-A	Low-A	Low-A
27	Chris Bostick	High-A Myrtle Beach	High-A	High-A	AA
28	Sammy Solis	High-A/Injury rehab	XST	AA	AA
29	Matt Purke	AA	AA	AA	AA/AAA if he can successfully convert to relief
30	Abel De Los Santos	High-A Myrtle Beach	AA	AA	AA

I’ve uploaded the XLS that I used to create this spreadsheet to google here.   You can sort the spreadsheet online by any of the columns (in fact, i’ve added a pseudo-rank column for each category for intelligent sorting from high level to low) to see where these guys will be by team.  To summarize:

• 6 of them should be in Syracuse most of the year
• 8-9 in Harrisburg
• 10-11 in Potomac
• 3 in Hagerstown
• likely 4 in short season ball.

So, lots of talent close by in Potomac …. as we all already knew.

Fyi; i’m going to re-publish my spreadsheets of prospect and farm system rankings soon after a bunch more rankings came in and I did some historical research. I filled in a bunch of previous rankings (lots and lots of google research) and have links to every ranking that I could find.  For those of you with old Baseball America handbooks, I could use the rankings out of there to complete these xls.  More later.