Nationals Arm Race

Here’s the June 2026 check-in on rotations. I’ll return to a bit of bullpen-commentary this month, because we have just gotten some significant bullpen news in the majors.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, etc.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

• Big Board, Draft Tracker, and IFA Tracker
• Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com, Nats MLB stats at fangraphs.com
• AAA Rochester stats at milb.com. AAA Rochester Stats at fangraphs.com
• AA Harrisburg stats at milb.com, AA Harrisburg Stats at fangraphs.com
• High-A Wilmington stats at milb.com, High-A Wilmington Stats at fangraphs.com
• Low-A Fredericksburg Stats at milb.com, Low-A Fredericksburg stats at fangraphs.com
• FCL Nationals Stats at milb.com
• DSL Nationals Pitching Stats at milb.com

All Stats quoted are as of 6/30/26’s games.

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We’ll start with the Majors.

• Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
• End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
• End of May 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (still with openers), Littell (also with openers), Alvarez.
• End of June 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Alvarez. Still using Openers in key spots

Changes since end of last Month: No changes; the same 5 guys are still making all the “starts” and we still are seeing the likes of PJ Poulin being an Opener here and there.

Rotation Observations: After one bad outing in May, Foster Griffin’s been unhittable for a month: 5 starts, 1.15 ERA, 33/4 K/BB. If we bail on the season, he’s back to being a major trade bait. Speaking of unhittable, Cade Cavalli had his best career start, and one of the better starts in the history of the franchise (non-Max Scherzer category) last night in Boston: 7ip, 1hit, 13 Ks, 0 walks, and one inexplicable sh*t talk to Wilson Contreras that got everyone all riled up. It was enough to really paper over an other wise “meh” month for Cavalli. He’s still holding onto a sub 4.00 ERA for the season. Littell was so good in May, and was right back to being awful in June: 6.10 ERA for the month. Mikolas held it together in June, even if his K/9 rate keeps plummeting (just 15Ks in 34 IP in June). Lastly Alvarez continues to be more than an effective 5th starter: 5 starts, 3.00 ERA even if his WHIP is a little elevated. He continues to show he belongs in a MLB rotation, even if he’s not throwing 95. Alvarez is exactly the kind of low-cost, under the radar starter that can make a team suddenly a play off contender, by giving confident, solid innings from the back of the rotation instead of replacement level production like most 5th starters bring to the table.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April 2026: Mikolas
• May 2026: Irvin (but he got hurt)
• June 2026: Littell but they’ll never cut him and his salary, so i’ll go back to Mikolas

Quick bullpen thoughts: I opined in general about the Philly collapse a week ago. We just got word that Mitchell Parker has a grade-3 strain of his UCL, and likely needs Tommy John surgery. This surgery, combined with his service time and overall struggles, will be presenting the team with a major decision this coming off-season, as is detailed in the MLBtraderumors.com article. He’ll be super-2, but will be basically out all of 2027; do you even tender him a contract? His production this year has been abhorrent out of the bullpen (6.58 ERA) but wasn’t a ton better last year as a starter (5.68 ERA across 33 games/30 starts). You hate to part ways with a home-grown guy, but I see little evidence he can be an effective starter or reliever at this point, and his 40-man spot may be better served by a pending rule5 eligible guy this coming off-season. Maybe we can offer him a MLFA/NRI deal so he can remain in the org and rehab with the only team he’s known, then give him a shot in 2027.

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AAA Rochester

• Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
• End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
• End of May 2026: Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain, Kent
• End of June 2026: Perales, Lara, Champlain, Kent, Penrod as an opener

Changes since end of last Month: Cornelio spent most of the month, including the end of it, in the MLB bullpen and had his “starts” replaced by middle-reliever Zach Penrod, who had four opens in the month. Reinforcements are arriving, as we’ll discuss in the AA promotion section.

Rotation Observations: Perales reverted to form, and continues to remind us that the Bennet-for-Perales trade sucked. 20/11 k/bb in 21 innings and a 6.53 ERA. Maybe we move this guy to the bullpen and see if he can max it out effectively as a late-inning guy? Lara was average: 4.00 era, 1.53 whip, and a .265 BAA. Newly promoted Champlain got a full month’s run-out and was meh: 5.56 ERA, 13 Ks in 22 ip, an a .292 BAA. Jackson Kent’s first full month in AAA went swimmingly: 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA and solid K/BB numbers (28/7 in 24ip). Is it possible that Kent will be the first 2024 class draftee to get to the majors? The only other 2024 draftee to get to AAA thus far is Seaver King, who we’ll certainly talk about in the July 1 prospect post coming up soon.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Alvarez and Cornelio. Verdict: both have been promoted, Alvarez is staying there.
• May: Perales and his sub 2.00 ERA could play in the majors.
• June: Kent the only deserving candidate right now, but he’s not getting promoted anytime soon.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: none really, Champlain had the least investment
• May: Lara clearly.
• June: Back to Champlain, who looks like he may be stuck at a ceiling of effectiveness in AA

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AA Harrisburg

• Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
• End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawara, Kent
• End of May 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Ogasawara, Lyon, Randall (spot starts from Van Scoyoc)
• End of June 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Lyon, Randall, Van Scoyoc

Changes since end of last Month: Ogawawara was released so he could return to Japan, ending our first (?) foray into the Japanese FA market with a thud. He was replaced by promoted long-man/spot starter Van Scoyoc and a slew of openers/bullpen games; 10 different guys had “starts” in June, but we’ll just talk about the ones making the longest stints per night.

Rotation Observations: Clemmey had another mediocre month; 5.53 ERA, too many hits, too many walks. I’m not sure what to do here; is it possible he’s hit a ceiling? At Age 20? Hopefully not. Luckham was actually effective this month; a sub 3.00 ERA and good peripherals pitching behind openers for the most part. Lyon’s ERA was bloated in comparison to his excellent numbers: a 1.02 whip and a .183 BAA; he’s pitching very well for a 2025 draftee in AA. Randall’s first full month in AA was solid; 4 ERA, nearly a 1 whip, .229 BAA, a K/inning; that’s great. Van Scoyoc’s month was so-so, a 3.94 ERA in just 16ip but for some reason was the one they chose to promote up to slot into the rotation spot in AAA. Maybe it was social promotion, in that he’s a 26 MLFA who spent the entirety of 2025 in the AAA bullpen of Colorado.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Ogasawara, then Kent. Kent was promoted over Ogasawara
• May: clearly Ogasawara.
• June: Van Scoyoc (and he was promoted on 7/1). After that it may be time to see if Luckham can make it “third time a charm” in AAA; he had starts there in 2024 and 2025.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Luckham.
• May: still Luckham.
• June: Chemmey

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High-A Wilmington

• Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
• End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
• End of May 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Polanco, Bruni, Meckley
• End of June 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Meckley, Sime, Tepper

Changes since end of last Month: Polanco was dumped out of the rotation when Sime was promoted up. Similarly, Bruni went back to LR/SS duties when Tepper came off the DL officially after a long rehab stint in Low-A.

Rotation Observations: Riley Maddox had another solid month; 3.25 ERA, 1.10 whip, which led to his promotion at the end of the month. If it were me, I probably would have promoted Tejeda, who cleaned up this month: 1.38 ERA and 33/11 K/BB in 22 innings. Meckley struggled badly this month, with 9 Ks and 15BBs in 16ip and a 6.06 ERA. Sime’s first month in High-A was … interesting. 5 starts, 17ip, 2.60 ERA and 27ks in 17ip, so he still is throwing it by people. But, he also has 16 walks in those 17ip, which has bloated his Whip a bit to 1.50. Finally Tepper, back after 6 rehab starts in lower minors, had a solid first month back but is walking too many guys. Interestingly, after finally being relieved of starter duties, Polanco in a long-man role had a decent month; ERA in the 3s, decent peripherals. Maybe he just needs to be an innings eater in the middle of the bullpen.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Randall: he did indeed get promoted
• May: None. Tejeda if I had to name one.
• June: Maddox (Promoted on 7/1), should have been Tejeda.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Polanco
• May: still Polanco but likely Bruni makes way for Sime. (Polanco indeed finally dumped to bullpen)
• June: Meckley

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Low-A Fredericksburg

Low-A spent most of the first 6 weeks of the season doing tandem starts, but as players hit the DL or hit ineffectiveness, we’ve seen the rotation really settle into something more conventional.

• Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
• End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
• End of May 2026: Portorreal, Sime, Johnson, Fischer, and Tepper doing rehab the whole month
• End of June 2026: Portorreal, Johnson, Fischer, Manning, De La Cruz plus rehab starts from Herz, Williams, Tepper.

Changes since end of last Month: Sime was promoted, replaced by De la Cruz. When Tepper’s rehab ended, they put Manning into the starting rotation.

Rotation Observations: Portorreal reverted to his earlier season form and put up an 8 ERA for the month; that’s just not going to cut it, with the huge number of MLFAs pouring into the system that the team may want to try out as starter. Luke Johnson, who the team signed for exactly $2k in 2024 as a 10th round throw away pick, dominated last month to the tune of a 1.86 ERA. Fischer had a solid month, turning 4 starts into a 3.60 ERA and a promotion (like with Maddox above, not sure why it was Fischer to move up and not someone else). Manning struggled in the rotation for the first time, with a 5.60 ERA for the month. Lastly De la Cruz, the first 24IFA arm to get out of rookie ball (Angel Feliz is in High-A, also a 24IFA), had an abhorrent k/bb ratio 10k/18bb in 15Ip but somehow kept his ERA at 2.30 for the month.

Taking a quick peek at some of the guys still doing “tandem” or long relief work at this point in Low-A: Travis Sthele threw a donut this month: 5 games, 16ip, 0 runs. All in “rehab” appearances. Clearly he needs to go back home to High-A.

Lastly, DJ Herz made one rehab start, then got diagnosed with a left flexor strain, so he’s back to being shut down, and who knows now when he’ll be back.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Meckley; indeed he was promoted
• May: Fischer
• June: Fischer, who was actually promoted 7/1. Should be Johnson

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Portorreal: he has turned it around greatly.
• May: Probably Johnson if we had to pick someone; they’ve already settled the tandem starters and demoted guys to the pen
• June: Portorreal

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Rookie FCL

Reminder: The Milb.com FCL site can’t do month splits, so this is kind of running full-season analysis.

• Opening Day 2026: Weaver, Reyes, Martina, De la Cruz, Robles
• End of May 2026: Reyes, De la Cruz, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell
• End of June 2026: Reyes, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell, Gillis, Millikan

Changes since end of last Month: De la Cruz promoted, replaced by Gillis.

Rotation Observations: Reyes continues to hold a respectable 4.09 ERA.as a 21yr old 23IFA. Robles has 20 walks in 24IP and needs to tighten up. Lopez has 17 walks in 21 innings; same story. Bothwell is a 26yr old MLFA with an ERA north of 9.00, but he does have 34 ks in 26ip. Nonetheless, not sure why he’s still rostered after having been demoted from Low-A earlier this year. In Gillis’ two starts; 5 runs on 10 hits. Too early to tell. Lastly we have Millikan, the sole bright spot on the starters: in 5 games and 17IP he has a 0.53 ERA. Time to move up the 23yr old MLFA.

Next guy to get promoted:

• May: Reyes (ended up being De la Cruz)
• June: Millikan

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• May: Robles
• June: Bothwell

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Rookie DSL

Reminder: The Milb.com FCL site can’t do month splits, so this is kind of running full-season analysis.

• Opening Day 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Reynoso, Carela
• End of June 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Carela, Salas

Changes since end of last Month: Reynoso made 3 starts, then hasn’t appeared since 6/19 (but isn’t on the DL). He seems to have been replaced by LR/SS Salas for the time being.

Rotation Observations: The first month of a DSL rotation is always fun, with 17yr olds coming face to face with pro hitters for the first time and sometimes putting up astronomical numbers. Manzueta: 11+ ERA. Medina: 0.96 ERA. Night and day. Sarit’s 6.48 ERA a little inflated when looking at peripherals. Reynoso got shelled for 3 outings then hit the non-DL bench. Carela looks good so far in 4 starts, but it’s just 10 innings. Salas has 4 appearances and 9ip and has struggled so far.

Amongst those also getting longer outings/tandem starts: Jesus Carrasco has a 7.71 ERA in 11ip and Manuel Ruiz has a 5.23 IP in 10innings. Everyone else in the DSL seems to be more in the 1-2 IP/appearance range right now.

In the bullpen, Rafael Mejas gave up 0 runs in 7 middle relief innings for a good start.

On the other end of the spectrum, here’s a line for you: Aldemaro Sevilla, signed in January, had 4 apperances, threw 6 2/3 innings. In those 4 games, he gave up 14 runs on 8 hits and 14 walks. That’s a 17.55 ERA and a 3.30 whip.

Next guy to get promoted:

• June: Medina

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• June: Manzueta

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That’s it for June 2026.