Nationals Arm Race

Did Rizzo mis-step by not structuring Wang's contract w/ a club option? Photo via Washington Nationals official photo day.

We’ve all been watching Chien-Ming Wang labor through his first few starts in nearly two seasons, having worked his way back through shoulder surgery.  August and September are clearly a “regular season tryout” for Wang, with the team having carried him for the last two seasons to the tune of $3m guaranteed.  Recently, details of his incentives were posted by foreign journalists that seem to indicate that Wang is likely to earn at least $1M more in roster bonuses, pushing the Nats outlay to $4M for the estimated 12 starts we’ll get out of him this year.  This isn’t exactly the worst $/start FA contract ever signed, and the amount of money spent isn’t exorbitant, but it is a lot of money for very few impactful starts.

Now, a quick caveat before getting into the meat of this post: I’m not convinced he’s really back, or that he’s going to be worth retaining just quite yet.  He’s not pitching that badly; through his first seven starts he has a 4.19 era, a 1.397 whip.  His advanced stats were a bit more troubling: he is sporting a 5.32 fip, a 4.99 xfip and a 5.11 SIERA as of the date of this writing, meaning his ERA is likely a mirage and likely will rise.  Even more concerning; he’s not getting any strikeouts; he was never a big K/9 guy (4.1/9 on his career), but he had THREE strikeouts in his first 21 innings back and 9 in 38 IP to this date: This the NL; you usually get 3-4 strikeouts per game by falling out of bed by virtue of the opposing pitcher and generally weaker lineups.  So perhaps this whole post is for naught.

Now, all that being said.  Lets say Wang throws 1.50 era baseball the rest of the season and the team wants him back.  Here’s the big problem: the Nats don’t have a club option on him!!  There’s nothing to prevent Wang from going back to the Yankees (his “home” club) after this season, having had our team pay for his rehab for the past two years and $3M dollars.  Yeah he’d probably accept a 2 or $2.5M offer … but the Yankees may double that because they don’t really care about payroll and need starting pitching and may be willing to roll the dice.

I know sportswriters and bloggers have been saying things like, “well maybe he’ll recognize the situation and give the Nats a fair deal.”  Maybe.  But certainly it isn’t in his best interest to do something like this.  Yeah the team just gave him $3M for a few 2011 starts … but baseball is a business and if a team comes in with a larger offer to take a flier on him, he’s not going to just give money away.  Especially on a team that has a slew of rising SP prospects and who just got done telling another veteran with a mid 4 ERA (Livan Hernandez) to shut it down for the rest of the season.

I think this was a team mistake: they had to know this situation would happen and the whole point of a club option is to protect the club’s interest.  A club option could have been done with $0 buy out, especially for a guy who had just gotten $2M in 2010 to basically have a year-long paid rehab assignment.

The prodigal son returns. Photo via centerfieldgate.com

After seeing last cycle’s debut of Tom Milone, this cycle will feature two interesting milestones for the team.  Livan Hernandez‘s final start of the season comes first, then the long anticipated 2011 debut of Stephen Strasburg.  Lastly, this cycle got cut short due to the Monsoon of 2011 (aka, Raingate?) and Ross Detwiler got skipped so as to keep the wunder-kid on his regular rest and home-grown schedule.  I wonder how that is playing in the clubhouse… Technically Milone took over the #5 spot in the rotation initially, but the insertion of Strasburg into the #3 hole made for one cycle of 6, that is until Detwiler got skipped.

So as of now the rotation is going Milone-Lannan-Strasburg-Wang-Detwiler.

Good

• John Lannan looked shaky at the beginning of his labor day 9/5 start (box/gamer) but settled down decently enough (aided by a 4 run, 3 homer first inning by his offense) and got the win against the Dodgers.  He only went 5 1/3, surprisingly getting yanked after giving up a 1 out single in the 6th.  He was high on the pitch count at that point (94 pitches) but it was still a quick hook in this opinion.  He gives up one run on 5 hits with 2 walks and a handful (4) of K’s on the day.  Lannan is an interesting case; he continues to be solid (3.48 era on the season) if not flashy.
• Stephen Strasburg‘s 2011 debut on 9/6 (box/gamer) may not have been the amazing 14-K performance he showed during his MLB debut in 2010, but it certainly was as good as we could possibly expect.  See here for more details.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez‘s last start of the season (and possibly his last in a Nats uniform), showed why his position on the team is really in jeopardy.  He put in yet another sub-par performance leading to an easy win for the Mets on 9/4 (box/gamer).  5 1/3 innings, 8 hits, 6 runs.  For a team that averages only 3.84 runs a game, you just can’t have a starter who gives up 6 in 5.  That being said, i’m definitely advocating the team keep him around for 2012.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Chien-Ming Wang put in another 6 inning start in the midst of the monsoon of 2010 on 9/8 (box/gamer), giving up 4 runs early before retiring 10 of the last 11 batters.  He was bailed out by the offense and got a no-decision.  Wang’s early troubles were chronicled by Adam Kilgore here, noting that since his surgery Wang isn’t warming up until he’s been on the mound for a couple of innings, leading to his frequent pattern of giving up early runs but finishing strong.  The team is eventually going to have to figure out which Wang they have when it comes time to decide whether to try to bring him back for 2012.

Starter Trends (2nd half only).  Livan ends on a bad note, but his up-and-down performances could have predicted it.  Lannan continues to chug along.  Strasburg was fantastic.  Wang is consistently mediocre, as noted.  Detwiler has slipped after a couple of good outings, and Milone needs to improve on his debut.

• Lhernandez    bad,good,bad,good,bad,good,bad,soso,good,bad->shelved for season
• Lannan    good,good,bad,soso,good,bad,bad,good,soso,good
• Strasburg    great
• Wang        bad,bad,great,soso,soso,good,bad,soso
• Detwiler    soso,soso,good,good,bad,bad
• Milone    bad

Relievers of Note and other News

• “Negotiations” are already being talked about with Livan and the team for next year.  WT’s Amanda Comak does some good dollar/per win or /per inning research here, and comes to the same conclusion that I have had for a while; Hernandez is a total bargain on the FA market for what he can give … if you can put up with the occasional (frequent?) blowups.
• Lots of 9/1 call-ups are came a few days after the actual September 1st date, with arms Stammen, Severino, Peacock, and Maya joining position players Lombardozzi and Brown.  Peacock and Lombardozzi require corresponding 40-man moves, and (based on past research) we may be seeing a DFA in the next couple days.  Update: I was almost correct with the required moves to make room for the new guys to the 40-man roster, with the Nats transfering Kimball to 60-day DL.  The team (finally, in the eyes of many) DFA’d Garrett Mock, a not-entirely unexpected move.  The surprise was the outright release of Adam Carr.  I thought at least the team would recall him and 60-day DL him, and the unconditional release is somewhat surprising.
• Clearly Davey Johnson has been given an edict to “play the kids.”  But his use of “the kids” in the 9/6 game was, well, a bit frustrating.  He brought a starter in (Brad Peacock) for his MLB debut in a 2-on, one out debacle left by Doug Slaten.  He brought in a hitter (Corey Brown) for his Nats debut in a pinch hitting, bases loaded situation against a Dodger fireballer.  Is he setting these guys up to fail?  I completely agree with Capitol Baseball’s assessment of the situation, published here.
• Kilgore and other beat reporters noted that Wang’s incentives are almost certain to kick in to the tune of an additional $1M by the end of 2011.

Peacock goes from 41st round flier to MLB pitcher. Photo via bleacherreport.com

Those of us who meticulously follow the Nats farmhands and pitching prospects were given multiple treats in the wake of Stephen Strasburg‘s triumphant return on 9/6 (box/gamer).  We also got to see the MLB debut of a very intriguing name in the future of this rotation, Brad Peacock.

(We also got to finally see Atahualpa Severino, but not until after a rain delay blew out my 3-hour DVR recording.  Apparently he blew away the one hitter he faced with 96mph heat.  I wonder why we slogged along with Doug Slaten for so long if we had a 96mph fireballer available in the minors all season?)

Peacock has been visible to those of us who havn’t traveled to either Harrisburg or Syracuse lately, appearing in the Futures game during the 2011 all-star break.  On 9/6 Peacock came into the game in relief despite being a starter all year, and inherited 2 runners from lefty Doug Slaten (who I thought was closer to being released than ever appearing in a game for this team again).  He features (according to a pre-game interview) a 4-seamer (95mph normally), a 2-seamer, a knuckle-curve and a change.

Peacock “only” throws 95 (click here for Pitch F/X data on the night) but its a sneaky fast 95, getting up on hitters by virtue of some slight tweaks he made to his mechanics this year to do a better job of hiding the ball before hitting his release point.  He did a good job keeping his fastball low and definitely had a couple of borderline pitches called balls (at one point showing a bit of exasperation on the mound …).  He definitely depends on the four-seamer predominantly; 15 of his 23 pitches were a 4-seam fastball.  He says he throws a 2-seamer but we didn’t see it.  We only saw a few change-ups as well (six per Pitch f/x), but one of them was a 3-2 change-up to Ethier with the bases loaded that took some guts to throw.  His 4-seamer definitely has action and movement, but I’m beginning to see why scouting pundits (Keith Law) keep saying that Peacock seems destined for the bullpen.  I’d like to have seen the 2-seamer, or more of the curve-balls (he only threw three on the night, but all 3 were for strikes).

His motion and mechanics are “effort-ful.”  He definitely puts a lot into each pitch and he doesn’t have the easy arm action of other pitchers in our arsenal.  Not a total red-flag, but I wonder if he’s a shoulder injury waiting to happen (ala Cole Kimball).

He got a grounder from Matt Kemp (his first MLB hitter) on his curve-ball that Desmond could have (should have?) had, then got touched up for a few hits.  On the night; he pitched 1 1/3, gave up 4 hits and was charged with a run.  He allowed both of Slaten’s runners to score.  He most likely would have gone longer had the skies not opened up.  A couple of the guys he faced really hit the ball on the button and he didn’t have a swinging strike all night (not a good sign).

It’d be nice to see how he fares when he gets a longer outing to see if this was just nerves, an umpire squeezing him or something else.  Perhaps he’ll take some starts from here to the end of the season (we’ll definitely need at least two spot starters because of double-headers on the schedule).  Or perhaps the team will go to a 6-man rotation.

Nats-ville holds its breath for Strasburg's return. Photo allansgraphics.com via free-extras.com

All eyes were on big #37 tonight 9/6 (box/gamer), with Stephen Strasburg making his comeback.  I’ll be the 1000th opinion you will read about his return, but here’s what I thought of his return.

Final line: 5ip, 2hits, zero walks and four strikeouts.  56 pitches, 40 for strikes through 5 complete innings.  He left with a 3-0 lead but got a no-decision when his bullpen conspired to blow the lead.

Strasburg featured mostly 2- and 4-seam fastballs on the night, mixing in a handful of curveballs and a few well timed change-ups.  He sat mostly in the 96-97 range (average on the night was exactly 96.68) on his 4-seamer but (amazingly) humped his 2-seamer up to the 97 range as well (click here for his Pitch f/x data).  A 2-seam running fastball at 97mph is almost unfair to hitters, and if he can continue getting that kind of pace on a ball that moves so much that catchers have a hard time catching it, that’s bad news for the league.  It didn’t seem to me he really was commanding the curve (he only threw 3 of 7 for strikes), and he didn’t throw the change-up nearly as much as in 2010 (only five change-ups on the night).  This approach was perhaps because of who was calling the game; Ivan Rodriguez called lots of change-ups while Wilson Ramos seemed content to call a more conventional fastball-heavy game.  I’m guessing the coaching staff gave him some edicts about not abusing Strasburg’s arm with a bunch of circle-changes his first game back.  Personally I think it was over-use of the change-up that led to his arm injury, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him develop something less stressful on his arm at some point to use as a change of pace pitch.

Strasburg’s mechanics seemed a bit more reserved, a bit stiffer perhaps than last year.  To me, he wasn’t efforting as much into each pitch as we have seen.  Perhaps this goes along with the same game-plan that Jordan Zimmermann has been employing; instead of running up your pitch count to get a bunch of Ks, try to pitch to contact and get hitters to go after your stuff earlier in the count.  Its better to go 7 or 8 innings on 100 pitches with 6 Ks than to be sitting at 100 pitches after 6 with 10 Ks.  You have a better chance of guaranteeing the win and saving the bullpen.

The Dodgers did their part in extending his planned outing from 4ip to 5 (albeit with a 60 pitch limit) by going up hacking.  They probably figured that Strasburg would be grooving 4-seamers to start everyone off with a routine fastball … and they were mostly right.  First pitch swinging continued into the 2nd pass through the lineup, to the point where I was wondering why Ramos wasn’t mixing up the pitch calling.  No matter; the Dodger hitters more or less couldn’t catch up to his fastball.  The two hits he allowed consisted of a game-leading off double on a jammed blooper over the shortstop’s head, and a grounder up the middle that Ian Desmond really should have gotten (it was a soft hit ruling, in my opinion).  Only one hitter really put good wood on anything Strasburg threw; James Loney lined a grooved fastball to right, but right at Jonny Gomes.

Perhaps the most impressive at bat of the night was the 2nd time MVP candidate Matt Kemp faced Strasburg.  He started Kemp off with a 2-seamer that rode the inside corner for strike one, then he blew a 98 mph 4-seamer at the knees over the outside part of the plate for strike 2.  An absolute unhittable ball.  The announcers thought he’d go curve; I knew he’d go change.  He threw an absolute gem of a change up, a diving 90mph 0-2 change up that Kemp waved at for the best 3-pitch combo he threw all night.

The 2-seamer was moving, his curve seemed to be a bit loopy and out of control.  His vaunted circle change wasn’t diving back as much as we’ve seen; he seemed to be gripping it with more of a palm-ball grip instead of the circle change grip and the changeup was coming in straighter than his change last year.  But, it was still coming in and diving down well enough to elude the batters waving at it.

Summary; fantastic outing, as much as we could have hoped for.

Welcome to the Majors, Tom Milone. Photo: Tom Priddy/Four-Seam Images/Milb.com

The big news this cycle is that the Nationals will be welcoming a new starter for his MLB debut.  Tom Milone, 2010 Nats minor league pitcher of the year and owner of a rather consistent set of minor league stats as he’s progressed up the system.

• 12-5, 2.91 era in high-A in 2009
• 12-5, 2.85 era in AA in 2010
• 12-6, 3.22 era in AAA this year

So you’d think he has high hopes of continuing to pitch at that level.  What’s going against him?  The jump from AAA to the Majors is the biggest of course, and the scouting reports on him say he’s a soft-tossing lefty that relies on guile to get hitters out, and thus has a potential ceiling of #5 starter at best.  I can’t wait to see how he does.

Good

• Livan Hernandez cooly pitched his 50,000 career pitch while easily controlling the powerful Braves lineup on 8/30 (box/gamer).  7ip, 5 hits, 2 runs.  Meanwhile the team’s 3-4-5-6 hitters all went deep against the Atlanta’s best pitcher Jurrjens.  A good night for the team.

Bad

• Chien-Ming Wang had another poor outing on 9/1 (box/gamer) where his sinker wasn’t sinking, resulting in fly balls and home runs.  End result: 5 2/3, 4 runs, 7 hits and 3 base-runners for nearly a 2.00 whip on the night and a loss in Atlanta.  More concerning; 0 strikeouts.  On the season now; 38 2/3 innings, NINE strikeouts.  I’m sorry; i know the beat reporters are saying things like “well he wasn’t a big strike-out pitcher before” but he’s at 2.1 k/9, nearly 50% less than his career K/9 rate.  His walk rate is way up as well.  Yes he’s still coming off injury and likely isn’t 100%.  But i’m getting less and less inclined to recommend re-signing him as his starts pile up.
• Not the best outing for Ross Detwiler on 9/2 (box/gamer): 6 runs on 7 hits over just 3 innings, highlighted by a 3-run homer given up in the top of the 1st.
• Tom Milone‘s debut on 9/3 (box/gamer) started out well, but ended badly.  See here for an in-depth look.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• John Lannan didn’t look that effective against the Braves early on 8/31 (box/gamer), giving up a bomb to Chipper Jones and another homer to his counterpart, but he got things back together and put in 7 solid innings.  3 runs (2 earned, the unearned run coming via Lannan’s own throwing error), 6ks and just 1 walk.  It was one of those outings that “seemed” worse than it ended up being.

Starter Trends.  Livan gets back on the good side but the rest of the rotation struggles, contributing to a 2-3 rotation cycle.

2nd half
Lhernandez    bad,good,bad,good,bad,good,bad,soso,good
Lannan    good,good,bad,soso,good,bad,bad,good,soso
Wang        bad,bad,great,soso,soso,good,bad
Detwiler    soso,soso,good,good,bad,bad
Milone    bad

Relievers of Note and other News

• (repeating this from the last post b/c of the timing) I saw a blip in the paper today about how Livan wants to stay a Washington National, and that he’s willing to become a long reliever understanding that he may be forced out of the rotation by the rise of young arms.  That’s good news for the team frankly; if he stays at or near his current salary ($1.25m base, roughly $2m with incentives) then he’s a very good, very cheap insurance policy in case one of our younger arms has a meltdown.  Livan may be finishing a frustrating on-again/off-again season, but he does put in a number of quality starts when given the chance.
• Look at our AFL roster: Harper, Rendon, Solis, Martin, Lehman and likely Purke.  Wow.  Talk about the future of this franchise.
• Twitter feeds from teammates seemed to indicate before any official press releases that both Milone and Peacock are indeed getting 9/1 callups.  Tatusko then retracted the tweets and apologized for starting rumors.  Ahhh the modern media world.
• Adam Kilgore thinks the Nats are calling up no less than 5 players in addition to Milone; Peacock, Severino, Bernadina, Lombardozzi, and Maya.  Honestly I have a hard time believing they’re going to call up Bernadina or Maya.  What is Bernadina going to do as the 6th outfielder on this team right now?  Maya is a starter; we have at least 3 too many starters on the traveling team as it is.  Severino makes some sense, to spell a tired bullpen, but he’s been up twice before and has never thrown a pitch in anger.  Its about time they figured out if he’s worth the 40-man spot he’s been occupying for 2 years.  9/2 update an injury to Nix probably means Bernadina’s call-up for cover.
• Strasburg‘s final rehab start was pretty good; he allowed just one hit through 6, pitched 5 perfect innings and departed on 70 pitches.  I guess he’s ready.  The Nats announced that he’ll only pitch at home, possibly enhancing the repeated criticisms that the team is “baby-ing” him.  Per Goessling’s article the home dates will be roughly the 6th, 11th, 16th, and 23rd.  Personally I hope its the 24th; those are my last season tickets of the season (a 105 saturday game).

Milone's debut will be remembered far more for his stunning homer than his pitching. Photo: Luis Alvarez/AP

Masn announcer JP Santangelo called it the “most exciting moment of the year,” speaking of the stunning 3-run homer that starter Tom Milone hit off the first major league pitch he saw (see this AP link for some cool stats about the feat).  And its hard to disagree; I exclaimed loudly when he hit that ball, pounding a first-pitch inside fastball from his opposite number for a no-doubter to the back of the Nats bullpen to give himself a 5 run lead after 2 innings.  It wasn’t going to be nearly enough though…. Here’s some thoughts on Milone’s 9/3/11 debut against the Mets.

Milone’s scouting reports compare him to a young Tom Glavine, and its hard not to disagree.  He has a very easy, smooth motion with minimum effort, bringing a fastball from the left hand side that hits 90mph easily (as opposed to the scouting reports we had heard, which listed his max fastball at 87-88).  In fact, he hit the 90 mph barrier 8-9 times according to his Pitch f/x data.  That’s good news; it would have been hard to imagine a Jamie Moyer-esque young lefty surviving in this modern era of power pitching.

Milone features 4 pitches (a point I’ve talked about a lot w/r/t Ross Dewtiler and his lack of a 4th pitch or a quality 3rd pitch); a four-seam fastball, a cutter, a big looping curve-ball and a change-up.  Pitch f/x had a very difficult time figuring out what he was throwing on the night, listing him as throwing 7 different types of pitches, but odds are they were mistaking a 2-seamer as his change-up and a slider being his cut-fastball.   On the night, he seemed to throw mostly fastballs and changes.  He threw just a few of the big curve-balls (four if you believe the pitch f/x data) and a handful of the cut-fastballs.  He didn’t see to really have control of the cut-fastball, missing inside a number of times.  His change-up (his best pitch) was effective, but his best tool (pinpoint control of his fastball) was on display.

Milone started out the first getting a few low-strike calls that left the Mets players and bench fussing loudly.  I guess that’s what it took to get the umpire to change his ways, because soon after the same knee-high strike call that Milone got in the first inning against Reyes didn’t get called.  In fact, there were a number of borderline missed calls after the first inning that had me (and the broadcast team) head-scratching.  He quickly worked through the order the first time, giving up just one single and retiring the first 7 guys he faced.  He got a number of first-pitch strikes and worked ahead in the count a lot the first time through the lineup.  Santangelo mentioned how quickly MLB hitters adjust, and true to form the second time through the order Milone was more or less pounded.  Wright blasted a ground-rule double, Pagan hit a bullet through the right side to score two, and then a 2-run homer to Evans suddenly gave back most of the 5-run lead his team staked him.  When he couldn’t get Reyes out to start the 3rd time through the order in the 5th inning, he got yanked.  Understandable; if the Mets got four hits out of nine batters the 2nd time through the lineup, they were likely to do at least the same the next time through, if not better.

On the night, 4 1/3 innings, 4 runs on 6 hits.  He got 2 Ks (one on a very odd swing on a high-and-outside 0-2 fastball and one against league-leading Reyes on a beautiful change-up) and gave up one homer.  He threw 74 pitches, 51 for strikes and showed his great control.  I think he started to struggle once he stopped getting the knee-high strike call, he started to get burned by working further up and in.  He doesn’t have nearly enough power to miss inside.  I think he was hurt by the lack of cutter control and could have used that pitch to keep hitters honest.  If he throws a 90mph straight fastball, then an 88 mph cutter with movement should be a great pitch to use, expecially against right-handers.  He tried working it inside (ala Mariano Rivera) but gave up after he kept missing too far inside. Clearly he didn’t adjust to hitters as well as they were adjusting to him the 2nd time through the order; it will be interesting to see if that becomes a trend the next few times he throws.

On the night; a promising beginning and a troublesome finish.  The Mets are a very good hitting team (2nd in the league in average) so it was going to be hard to keep them completely quiet.  Lets see how he does the next time against Houston (a far worse team) before getting a re-match in New York in a couple weeks’ time.

Is Livan's time in Washington coming to an end? Photo AP/Tom Gannam via prorumors.com

Livan Hernandez holds a special place in the hearts and history of the Washington Nationals.  He pitched our first game as a franchise.  He’s been our opening day starter four times (including in 2011).  And he continues to pitch reasonably well despite a fastball that’s barely good enough for some adult leagues in the area.  He’s on an incredibly cheap contract for a veteran of his capabilities ($1M base for 2011 with some performance bonuses) and you know pretty much what you get from him year-to-year (roughly a .500 record, roughly 9 to 12 wins, a career 4.37 era).  From a salary perspective, he’s one of the best FA bargains out there (assuming he ends the season with 8 wins, a FA figure of $125,000 per win is fantastic in an age when teams try to get FA pitching at $1m/win.  See my “Contract value for FA pitcher” post from last October, which I’ll update this off season with 2011’s season results and new signings).

However, in the 2nd half his “mood swings” on the mound have become problematic.  His starts dating to May 30th he’s as likely to give up 2 runs in 7 innings as he is to give up 6 in 5.   In my trends his line reads basically good-bad-good-bad-good-bad.  In all these games lately where he’s given up a large parcel of runs, it is in fewer than 5 innings pitched, meaning the game is basically out of hand before it is halfway done and the bullpen has to pick up a hefty workload of 4-5 innings each time.  The team today has essentially announced that after his Sunday 9/4 start he’s being shut down for the season, in favor of younger pitchers (read, Brad Peacock).

What should we do with him for 2012?  The Nats blogosphere has weighed in on the topic in the recent past, with opinions pro- and anti- Livan.

The answer however may have come to the team almost by accident on 8/30.  In a post-game interview after beating the Braves, Livan mentioned more or less that:

• He wants to stay with the team (… of course, every veteran FA says this.  Its on page one of the FA-to-be playbook).
• He’s willing to be a long reliever, knowing the team has a ton of young starters coming in.

Really?  A guy who hasn’t missed a start since he got into the league is willing to be a long-man/spot starter on this team?   If that’s the case then I’m 100% for bringing him back.  In this scenario:

• Johnson has his long-man out of the pen that he really hasn’t had all season (Gorzelanny may seem like he fits the bill, but clearly the team is down on him).
• Livan can compete for a starter role in the spring and may very well earn a spot on merit anyway.
• He’s great backup insurance for the inevitable injuries and spot starts.
• He’ll be cheap; he was on $1M this year and probably won’t be much more expensive next year (for comparison purposes, Todd Coffey earned 1.35M this year and was so bad that we couldn’t even flip him at the trade deadline for a low minor leaguer).

I think Livan can effectively fill the Miguel Batista role of 2010, a role that this team never really replaced for the 2011 season.  And his veteran presence in the clubhouse and bullpen.  I hope he stays around.

We won't see Zimmermann again til spring training 2012. Photo AP/Manuel Balce Ceneta

Rotation #27 marks the final time we’ll see Jordan Zimmermann starting this year.  He’s scheduled to exceed the 160IP limit set for him by the team this time around.  We’ll see announcements presumably for his replacement later in this cycle.

Good

• John Lannan didn’t pitch badly on 8/25 (box/gamer), giving up 2 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings, but again his offense failed him and he took a loss.  His bullpen unraveled after he left, highlighted by Henry Rodriguez‘s 5 hit, 3 run debacle.
• Chein-Ming Wang‘s 6th outing was decent, giving up one earned run in 6 innings in the Cincinnati bandbox on 8/26 (box/gamer).  He was wild (4 walks) and he didn’t work down in the zone as much as he usually does (10 ground ball outs to 6 fly outs) but he put his team in a position to win with the “real” quality start.  Through six starts and 33 innings Wang has a respectable 3.82 era and a slightly mediocre 1.33 whip.   I figure he has about 6 more starts before season’s end to prove to the Nats (and the league) what he’s worth in the free agent market.

Bad

• Ross Detwiler may have gotten a quality start in his 8/27 loss against Cincinnati (box/gamer), but he still gave up 6 runs in 6 innings.  Rookie Chris Marrero‘s first major league start resulted in his booting two of the first three balls hit to him, and those errors turned into 3 unearned runs.  He was definitely around the plate all night (59 of 88 pitches for strikes through 6 innings) but too many of his pitches caught too much of the plate against a potent Cincy offense.  Still, he’s got a sub 3 ERA through 6 starts and his 5 relief appearances on the season so you can’t really criticize too much.

• Jordan Zimmermann‘s last start of 2011 wasn’t the heroic winning sendoff people were hoping for on 8/28 (box/gamer).  He gave up solo shots to each of Cincinnati’s big hitters, then walked in a run in the 5th to force his early exit.  Final line on the day: 4 1/3, 6 hits, a walk and a HBP, and 3 earned runs.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Livan Hernandez gave the team one more excuse to remove him from the rotation when the roster expand, giving up 4 runs in 7 innings and taking the loss against Arizona on 8/24 (box/gamer).  It wasn’t the worst outing he’s had, but it wasn’t a quality start.

Starter Trends (2nd half only)

Hernandez has struggled lately, Lannan follows up a couple of poor outings with a good one, Wang maintains his decent to good trend, Detwiler has a rough outing that I may be judging too harshly, and Zimmermann takes a step back in his last appearance of the year.

• Lhernandez:     bad,good,bad,good,bad,good,bad,soso
• Lannan              good,good,bad,soso,good,bad,bad,good
• Wang                  bad,bad,great,soso,soso,good
• Detwiler             soso,soso,good,good,bad
• Zimmermann: bad,bad,great,good,soso,good,good,bad->shutdown for season

Relievers of Note and other News

• Ryan Mattheus‘s shoulder strain probably will cost him the rest of the season.  He’s been our 3rd best reliever the 2nd half of the season and looks like he’s definitely going to be a part of the 2012 bullpen.  He’s being replaced on the roster by 2007 first rounder Chris Marrero, who finally gets a debut after years of toiling and improving in our minor league system.
• Stephen Strasburg did his 5th rehab start in Syracuse on 8/28 (gamer from Ben Goessling) and he was, well, dominant.  Five perfect innings, 7 ks while seemingly working solely on his 2-seam fastball.  He had 7 ground ball outs to just one flyball out and was “only” hitting 95-96 on the stadium gun.  I’m guessing that he was working on his 2-seamer and his off-speed stuff on the night.  Its hard to really analyze these starts in some respects; he blows through AAA hitters that mostly have MLB experience, yet he gets tagged in the bush leagues.  Its a recurring theme that the guys in the lower minors will “swing at anything” and often times the ball runs into their bats for hits, but this is the second time through the minors for Strasburg where he’s fared *far* better against AAA hitters than AA or A ball guys.  Odd.
• Get your tickets now: the team announced Strasburg’s return as being 9/6/11 against the Dodgers.
• Jordan Zimmermann’s  season ending stats: 8-11, 3.18 era, 1.147 whip.  124/31 k/bb in 161 1/3 innings.  Excellent 4.0 k/bb ratios, 0.7 homers/9 and a 120 ERA+.   Looking at more advanced pitching stats: his FIP was right on line with his ERA at 3.15, his xFIP a respectable 3.74 and his SIERA at 3.55.   All in all a great season and a promising one for Zimmermann’s future as Robin to Strasburg’s Batman.
• Saw a blip in the paper today about how Livan wants to stay a Washington National, and that he’s willing to become a long reliever understanding that he may be forced out of the rotation by the rise of young arms.  That’s good news for the team frankly; if he stays at or near his current salary ($1m base, $2m with incentives) then he’s a very good, very cheap insurance policy in case one of our younger arms has a meltdown.  Livan may be finishing a frustrating on-again/off-again season, but he does put in a number of quality starts when given the chance.
• The Nats pulled both Tom Milone and Brad Peacock from dominant AAA starts over the weekend, presumably for eventual callup to the majors.  Then on 8/30, Milone was announced as the Zimmermann replacement for the upcoming Saturday 9/3 game.  This will require a 40-man move, with alternatives mentioned in this space last week.

(apologies; i’m a week behind on posting this)

Cycle #26 starts with a 3-game set at home to Philadelphia, one that set attendance records for the Nats Stadium.

Good

• Ross Detwiler put in perhaps his best appearance of the season in the opener against Arizona on 8/22 (box/gamer).  He gave up just one run on 6 hits and 3 walks through 6+ innings and beat Arizona’s nominal “Ace” and northern virginia native Joe Saunders.  My opinion on Detwiler’s future use continues to waver; clearly he’s above Gorzelanny in the pecking order but I continue to doubt his ability to stick in the starting rotation.  A few more quality starts should start to change my opinion.
• Jordan Zimmermann‘s 2nd to last start on 8/23 (box/gamer) was a tale of two pitches.  He pitched 6 shutout innings, allowing just 3 hits and one walk.  Four batters into the 7th; a ground out, a walk, a homer and a double erased his clean outing and tagged him with a loss.  His horrible run support continues; his offense was completely shut down by Arizona’s ace Ian Kennedy.

Bad

• Its hard to really knock Livan Hernandez for what he did on Friday 8/19 (box/gamer).  After throwing just a handful of pitches before enduring a 2 hour rain delay, he dutifully came back out on the mound instead of burning a spot-starter for his team.  Unfortunately the Phillies were ready for him; 4 runs on 7 hits in 4 ip.  Luckily for all involved, Gorzelanny came out and pitched 3 innings of shutout ball before the team scored SIX runs in the bottom of the 9th to get the unlikely win.  Unfortunately for Hernandez, its just one more piece of evidence that his days with this club are numbered.
• John Lannan got bounced around by a feisty Phillies team on 8/20 (box/gamer) and took a loss in a game that nobody on the staff could have won.  Counterpart Roy Oswalt pitched 8 shutout innings after getting an extra night’s rest and the team’s offense went to sleep.  He gave up 5 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits and four walks in just 5 innings.  The massive influx of Philadelphia fans set a new stadium attendance record, besting the previous record by nearly 3,000 fans.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Chien-Ming Wang drew the Phillies ace Roy Halladay in the 8/21 series finale (box/gamer) and pitched toe to toe with him before a rain delay knocked both starters out.  Wang gave up 3 runs on 5 hits, including two shocking home runs that seemed out of character for his pitching style.  Keeping the Phillies hitters to 3 runs over 5+ innings may seem herioc but I’ll just give him a mediocre outing on the day.

Relievers of Note and other News

• Stephen Strasburg‘s 4th rehab outing is scheduled for Monday 8/22 in Hagerstown.  Results?  Better than the last time.  3 innings, 2 runs on 2 hits and 6 K’s while working mostly on off-speed pitches.  The opposing team stole four bases, an indication to me that they knew Strasburg wasn’t really holding them on that well.  60 pitches 40 of which were for strikes.  Zuckerman seemed to think it was a successful outing.

Thoughts on the offense

• Mr Walkoff Homer Ryan Zimmerman got his 8th career walkoff with a memorable grand slam on friday 8/19.  According to rather dubious google research, the career leaders in baseball history are a slew of hall of fame sluggers with 12 each.  Ryan is 26 and in his 7th pro season and is nearly in the conversation of having the most of these for his career.

Good

• This time around it was Dr. Jekyll’s turn (aka, the “good” side) for Livan Hernandez, who stifled the best team in baseball for a 4-2 victory in Philadelphia on 8/12 (box/gamer).  Effort on the night: 6 2/3 innings, 4 hits and 1 unearned run allowed.  If you want to see something amazing, go look at Livan’s splits in wins, losses and no-decisions.  In 7 victories: 1.08 era.  In 11 losses: 5.84 era.  In 7 no-decisions: 5.63 era.  Maybe we can just skip every other start for him and just get his good ones.
• Ross Detwiler gave up one run in 6 innings to take the “unlucky loss” on wednesday 8/17 (box/gamer).  He had a career-high strikeouts of 7 (6 through 3 innings) and worked out of a bases-loaded, one out jam in the 3rd that contributed to his good evening.  I’m still not that impressed with him on the mound though; he gave up 9 baserunners in 6 innings and was over 100 pitches to that point.
• Jordan Zimmermann‘s presumed 3rd to last start was strong; 5 2/3 shutout innings in the series finale against the Reds on 8/18 (box/gamer).  Only a couple more starts to go before he hits his 160ip limit.  Here’s a couple of interesting stats on Zimmermann: he’s now 10th in the NL in WHIP, 2nd in the league (behind Halladay) in BB/9 and 4th in the league in K/BB ratio (behind the first 3 in the Philly rotation, in case anyone was doubting just how good their staff is).

Bad

• John Lannan completely forgot how to find the plate on 8/13 (box/gamer). leading to a complete stomping from Philadelphia and an ugly 11-3 score line.  Luckily for Lannan, only one of the 7 runs he allowed was earned (a homer to Ryan Howard).

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Chien Ming Wang‘s fourth start wasn’t nearly as exciting as his no-hitter bid last week; he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in a bit over 6 innings on 8/16 but cruised to the victory while the offense pounded opposing starter Mike Leake.  I was at this game and the ump seemed to be squeezing Wang on the low strike, which meant he had to work up in the zone a bit more.  Add to that a comment that the pitching coach made in post-game interviews; by virtue of the skipped game on sunday Wang got an extra days rest and was “too strong.”  He gave up more than a few hard-hit balls last night that were liners right at outfielders. He’s not getting any strikeouts either; he was never a big K/9 guy (4.1/9 on his career), but he’s had THREE strikeouts in 21 innings back. This the NL; you usually get 3 strikeouts by falling out of bed by virtue of the opposing pitcher and generally weaker lineups.  On the bright side, he was only at 78 pitches when getting yanked and probably could have finished 8 innings in 100 pitches.

Relievers of Note and other News

• If you havn’t seen Bryce Harper‘s walk off homer from friday 8/12’s game … its worth a watch.  Estimated at 480feet to dead center, it was absolutely crushed.  Thankfully this bit of Harper news was a significant step up from earlier in the week, when he made all sorts of headlines for his ejection.  Keith Law, in a rare moment of levity among the typical over-reacting baseball pundit reporting w/r/t Harper, noted in his chat on thursday 8/11, put it best while responding to multiple baited questions about Harper’s makeup and his “issues” as follows: “Any other minor league player reacts badly to a called third strike, we hear nothing about it.” I couldn’t agree more; I’m really tired of hearing about how Harper is immature and this and that, while every single emotion and action he has on the field is youtube’d for the world to see and overanalyze.  I’ve said this in this past; he’s not a robot, and he wouldn’t be as good as he is if he were emotionless on the field.
• Stephen Strasburg’s 2nd rehab start went pretty durn well: 3 scoreless innings.  He threw 33 pitches (26 for strikes), was steady at 98, touched 99 and worked at least 3 of his 4 pitches (there was no mention of his 2-seamer, but its great to see him throwing his 90-mph changeup, the pitch that blew out his elbow in the first place).  Its also very interesting to see him talk about pitch counts and getting batters out with fewer pitches; he consciously wants to go deeper into games, knowing he’s on a 100-pitch limit.  He seems to be reading the party line, as Zimmermann has clearly adopted this approach so as to last longer.
• Unfortunately, Strasburg’s 3rd start was not as promising: he gave up 5 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks in just an inning and a third in Hagerstown on 8/17.   He was clearly wild on the night; he threw 49 pitches but just 29 for strikes.  Mark Zuckerman tries to figure out when he’ll debut in the majors here, guessing its either tuesday or wednesday in the first week of September.  Next rehab start: Monday 8/22/11 back in Hagerstown.
• Wow; talk about timing (good or bad, depending on your viewpoint).  Jason Marquis, lost for the season after breaking his fibula on a come-backer.