Here’s the July 2026 check-in on rotations. We’re writing this one day before the trade deadline, and as of this writing we have not seen any moves that change the below personnel. Hopefully this post doesn’t age poorly.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, etc.
Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).
- Big Board, Draft Tracker, and IFA Tracker
- Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com, Nats MLB stats at fangraphs.com
- AAA Rochester stats at milb.com. AAA Rochester Stats at fangraphs.com
- AA Harrisburg stats at milb.com, AA Harrisburg Stats at fangraphs.com
- High-A Wilmington stats at milb.com, High-A Wilmington Stats at fangraphs.com
- Low-A Fredericksburg Stats at milb.com, Low-A Fredericksburg stats at fangraphs.com
- FCL Nationals Stats at milb.com
- DSL Nationals Pitching Stats at milb.com
All Stats quoted are as of 7/31/26’s games.
We’ll start with the Majors.
- Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
- End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
- End of May 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (still with openers), Littell (also with openers), Alvarez.
- End of June 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Alvarez. Still using Openers in key spots
- End of July 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin (with frequent openers)
Changes since end of last Month: Irvin returned after a couple months off to make his late July start, bumping Alvarez from the rotation. Also, we acquired Connelly Early, whos’ on the DL but who will be in this rotation when he returns, so someone is making way in August.
Rotation Observations: Griffin’s final start of the month yesterday in Atlanta ballooned his July ear to about 3.50 and jumped his seasonal ERA slightly above 3.00; totally understandable given the trade rumors and the importance of this series in Atlanta. There’s also rumors that the team is talking to Griffin’s camp about an extension; you know when the absolute worst time is to discuss a contract extension? In the middle of the damn season, when you’re also a trade acquisition candidate and you’re thinking about getting moved to a legitimate title contender. Cavalli continues to cruise along; in 5 July starts he was 3-0 with a 3.08 ERA, and more and more he’s looking like the guy we drafted. Mikolas was awful in July; four appearances, 6.62 ERA, had to have an opener in two of his “starts.” The team is 9-13 in his appearances, and he’s managed to lose two games where the team scored 6+ runs. Littell was serviceable in July: 3.86 ERA, rebounding from a tough June. Alvarez kind of pitched himself out of the rotation with an iffy July of an ERA above 5, but then again he was always going to make way for Irvin’s return.
Not for nothing, but I just have to wonder. If Lord and Irvin hadn’t gotten hurt, would we have already cut ties with Mikolas? Or is Early’s return going to be the impetus?
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
- April 2026: Mikolas
- May 2026: Irvin (but he got hurt)
- June 2026: Littell but they’ll never cut him and his salary, so i’ll go back to Mikolas
- July 2026: turned out to be Alvarez, should have been Mikolas.
Quick bullpen thoughts: The bullpen stats for July are grim, and include a series of ugly stat lines from guys now banished from the team. They DFA’d Granillo on 7/5, Lawrence on 7/21, and then just for kicks DFA’d Krook twice in two weeks. So far so good for Yean, Cosgrove, and Palmquist, who were all solid in the month. Our “Closer” Beeter, who at this point is the sole remaining bullpen guy who was on the opening day roster, got 5 saves in July but a 4.91 ERA to go with it. Kranick is holding on for some reason, with his 11 ERA for July. It’s just laughable what this front office has done with the bullpen this year. Maybe Trevor Williams’ return will help.
AAA Rochester
- Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
- End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
- End of May 2026: Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain, Kent
- End of June 2026: Perales, Lara, Champlain, Kent, Penrod as an opener
- End of July 2026: Perales, Lara, Champlain, Kent, then a slew of openers/rehab starts/bullpen games.
Changes since end of last Month: None really; the team kept both Cornelio and Alvarez up for nearly all of July, keeping the other four guys consistent for the month for the most part.
Rotation Observations: Perales was … great! 5 games, 1.46 ERA, .180 BAA. Still too many walks (29/16 k/bb in 24ip), but finally a solid month for the guy. Perales, Christian Franklin, and recently acquired Kyle Nicholas remain the only 40-man guys who have not appeared in the majors this season, as the team wears out the ROC->DCA shuttle. Can’t say the same for Lara: 6 games, 6.16 ERA, 1.68 whip. Luckily for Lara, already outrighted, there’s nobody pushing for his spot. Champlain got the job done despite not having big whiff rates: 5 appearances, 3.18 ERA but just a 0.79 WHIP rate; he was stashed on the Dev list yesterday to make way for Brad Lord’s pending rehab start, but he seems likely to return for his next start. Kent almost matched his June numbers with a 4.66 ERA for July; a quick peek at his advanced numbers shows a 3.85 Fip and a .324 BABIP, so he’s a bit better than appearances. Not good enough yet to be seriously pressing for a promotion, especially since he’s not on the 40-man.
Next guy to get promoted:
- April: Alvarez and Cornelio. Verdict: both have been promoted, Alvarez is staying there.
- May: Perales and his sub 2.00 ERA could play in the majors and our terrible bullpen
- June: Kent the only deserving candidate right now, but he’s not getting promoted anytime soon.
- July: Perales; had a good month and is on 40-man so no roster move.
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
- April: none really, Champlain had the least investment
- May: Lara clearly.
- June: Back to Champlain, who looks like he may be stuck at a ceiling of effectiveness in AA
- July: Back to Lara.
Quick bullpen thoughts: I mean, what is there to say? The AAA bullpen is half guys who couldn’t outproduce anyone else in our sh*tty MLB bullpen (Kent, Lawrence, Varland, Schultz, Henry), a newly acquired 40-man reliever who has an ERA in the 8s since acquisition (Nicolas), aged MLFAs still hanging on (Penrod, Pilkington, Young, Mejia), and org guys who seem like AA/AAA ceiling (Sinclair and Tolman). The only two “prospects” are 2023 8th rounder Simpson, who just got promoted to AAA a week ago, and 2024 7th Rounder Cranz, who started the year in Wilmington and who has struggled since arriving at AAA. This is why I don’t usually bother even looking at bullpen guys in the minors sometimes.
AA Harrisburg
- Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
- End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawara, Kent
- End of May 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Ogasawara, Lyon, Randall (spot starts from Van Scoyoc)
- End of June 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Lyon, Randall, Van Scoyoc
- End of July 2026: Clemmey, Lyon, Randall, Maddox, Tejeda (along with 3 rehab starts and a couple of bullpen games)
Changes since end of last Month: Luckham finally taken out of the rotation, replaced with the promoted Maddox. Van Scoyoc’s opener duties were replaced by 2 rehab starts from Irvin and another from Williams, then the team promoted Tejeda on 7/22 to be the team’s 5th starter.
Rotation Observations: Well, don’t look now but Clemmey had a good month. 6 appearances, 1.98 ERA, 30/17 K/BB in 27 IP and just a .191 BAA. I’ll take that. Isaac Lyon, the throw-in player in the Ferrer-Ford trade, has been quietly an assassin this season, earning 2 promotions and now more than holding his own in AA. July numbers: 3-1 with a 1.84 ERA in 5 starts.1.06 whip, .229 BAA. Looks great to me. Randall’s 2nd month in AA was rough: 6.875 ERA and lots of hits given up. Riley Maddox had a nice introduction to AA; the command and control guy 2025 8th rounder in his first pro season had a 3.86 ERA in four starts. I’ll take that. Tejeda only had one AA start in July; 3 Runs in a 5ip start, so nothing really to analyze.
Next guy to get promoted:
- April: Ogasawara, then Kent. Kent was promoted over Ogasawara
- May: clearly Ogasawara.
- June: Van Scoyoc (and he was promoted on 7/1, but was then demoted back mid-month).
- July: Nobody is ready, but Clemmey probably pitched the best and is the longest-serving AA guy. Maybe another month of this and they could consider him, but at his age, there’s no reason to push him to AAA right now.
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
- April: Luckham.
- May: still Luckham.
- June: Chemmey
- July: Luckham, who got removed from rotation. Now likely Randall.
Quick bullpen thoughts: Like AAA, the AA bullpen remains a hodge podge of “throw ’em against the wall to see who sticks” relievers for the most part. Of the 12 bullpen guys in Harrisburg as of this writing, less than half were drafted/developed by us (Luckham, Powell, Huff, Schultz, and Young), and none of them are really “prospects” at this point. Powell and Young were demoted earlier this year, Luckham is barely holding on to his job. The rest of the bullpen are Rule5 guys, MLFAs, and waiver claims. Again, this is why I almost never bother ranking relievers in my “prospect” ranks.
High-A Wilmington
- Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
- End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
- End of May 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Polanco, Bruni, Meckley
- End of June 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Meckley, Sime, Tepper
- End of July 2026: Sime, Tepper, Fischer, Sthele, Sullivan (plus 3 rehab starts, and a slew of one-offs).
Changes since end of last Month: Lots of churn here. Maddox and Tejeda were promoted, while Meckley was demoted, leaving 3 spots open in this rotation. Fischer filled one of them Swan made 2 rehab starts, Williams 1, and the rest of the month was filled with starts from Sullivan, Polanco, and the return of Sthele.
Rotation Observations: Sime is the most important name here, so we’ll start with him: 4 starts, just 14 IP. 2.51 ERA, 1.12 whip; ok those are solid. He gave up FIVE hits in the month. Five. 23/11 K/BB in those 14 innings. Ok, so maybe the guy can’t find the plate, but when he does, he mostly strikes people out. .106 BAA. I wrote it elsewhere, but you have to move this guy up again, even though he’s walking nearly a guy an inning and he’s only 19. You have to find a level where they actually hit the guy. Tepper hasn’t been great since returning to high-A: 7.65 ERA for the month. Fischer is a nice story; promoted on 6/30, the 2025 NDFA had 5 solid starts with a 3.18 ERA even if he’s not striking anyone out (11 Ks in 28ip). Sthele’s first start back in High-A in 2026 wasn’t great but he made 22 starts here last year with decent numbers, so odds are he stays here for the rest of the way. Sullivan looks like he is back in the Wilmington rotation after having started here in April, but unless he improves it won’t be for long: 2 starts in June; 7ip and 5ER.
Next guy to get promoted:
- April: Randall: he did indeed get promoted
- May: None. Tejeda if I had to name one.
- June: Maddox (Promoted on 7/1), should have been Tejeda (who was also promoted on 7/22)
- July: Sime
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
- April: Polanco
- May: still Polanco but likely Bruni makes way for Sime. (Polanco indeed finally dumped to bullpen)
- June: Meckley (indeed he was demoted on 7/8)
- July: Tepper
Low-A Fredericksburg
- Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
- End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
- End of May 2026: Portorreal, Sime, Johnson, Fischer, and Tepper doing rehab the whole month
- End of June 2026: Portorreal, Johnson, Fischer, Manning, De La Cruz plus rehab starts from Herz, Williams, Tepper.
- End of July 2026: Johnson, De La Cruz, Harmon, Meckley, Millikan, Reyes (with a bunch of openers)
Changes since end of last Month: More churn. Portorreal put on the Dev list, Sthele finishing off rehab and heading back to High-A, Fischer and Manning promoted. They’ve been replaced by the demoted Meckley, Harmon back off the DL, and the newly promoted Millikan, who came up once FCL was done.
Rotation Observations: Johnson was meh: 4.38 ERA in 4 appearances/12 innings. De la Cruz does not look ready for Full season ball: 5 starts, 16ip, an ERA in the 10s, and an 11/18 K/BB ratio. Phew. Harmon’s first two starts back off the DL have looked short and effortless: 2 games, 5ip, 2 hits allowed, 0 runs. Bummer he’s missed so much time this season; at least he has August to build up some innings. Meckley has been terrible; his July low-A numbers were worst than De la Cruz: ERA in the 11 range. Millikan’s first full-season start was awful, but he’ll likely have all of August. Juan Reyes joined Millikan with a promotion from the FCL upon its completion, had one good start and hit the DL.
Next guy to get promoted:
- April: Meckley; indeed he was promoted
- May: Fischer
- June: Fischer, who was actually promoted 7/1. Should be Johnson
- July: None. The low-A rotation is a mess. Gus Hughes as a long reliever is best option to promote this month.
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
- April: Portorreal: he has turned it around greatly.
- May: Probably Johnson if we had to pick someone; they’ve already settled the tandem starters and demoted guys to the pen
- June: Portorreal (put on Dev list mid-month in July)
- July: Meckley or De la Cruz. Probably Meckey since he’s 3 years older.
Rookie FCL
Reminder: The Milb.com FCL site can’t do month splits, so this is kind of running full-season analysis.
- Opening Day 2026: Weaver, Reyes, Martina, De la Cruz, Robles
- End of May 2026: Reyes, De la Cruz, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell
- End of June 2026: Reyes, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell, Gillis, Millikan
- End of Season 2026: Reyes, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell, Millikan, Medina
Changes since end of last Month: Gillis pitched twice, got hurt, and the team finished the season with the above five plus the first guy to get promoted from the DSL this season in Medina.
Rotation Observations: Reyes had a solid FCL season, with a sub 4.00 ERA and 50ks in 41IP, and more than deserved his promotion at FCL’s end. Same with Millikan: 2.23 ERA in his FCL time, and he’ll see how he fares in the Low-A rotation. As for the rest of these guys: Robles needs more seasoning with 22ks and 20 walks. He’s just 19 so he’s got time. Lopez’s K/BB numbers are hilarious: 37ip: 46Ks and 33walks. He’s an older IFA; signed last year but already 21, so that may explain things. Lastly there’s Bothwell, who is 26 in the rookie league, an Indy league signing. He was generally awful this season with an era above 9.00, and I can’t quite believe he hasn’t been released yet (oh, wait, he was released on 7/31, the day i’m writing this). Lastly Medina pitched twice and got absolutely shelled: 4.2 IP, 10 runs. Phew.
Next guy to get promoted:
- May: Reyes (ended up being De la Cruz)
- June: Millikan
- July: Reyes and Millikan, both promoted after FCL ended)
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
- May: Robles
- June: Bothwell
- July: Bothwell again, and he was released on 7/31
Rookie DSL
Reminder: The Milb.com DSL site can’t do month splits, so this is kind of running full-season analysis.
- Opening Day 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Reynoso, Carela
- End of June 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Carela, Salas
- End of July 2026: Manzueta, Sarit, Carela, Reynoso, Thomas
Changes since end of last Month: Medina too good and was promoted, so they put Reynoso back into the rotation. Thomas technically replaced Salas as the starter all month, but Salas still got a ton of innings doing tandem start work.
Rotation Observations: Not a lot of positives in this rotation. The BEST of these five guys is Sarit with a 5.48 ERA. . It gets worse from there; Carela at 6.04, Thomas 6.48, Salas 7.29, Reynoso in the 8s, Manzueta above 9. It’s no wonder this team is just 10-32, one of the worst three teams of the league.
You know what? The Nats deserve this. They have not signed an IFA to a non-trival bonus figure in years. Year after year, all their dollars go to hitters. The most recent time they’ve spent even 6 figures on an IFA arm was in 2023 with Jose Feliz, and even that was just a $120k bonus. The last time they spent a 7figure bonus on an arm was in 2019 with Andry Lara. So, no surprise we’ve struggled to have DSL arms make their way into our system.
Next guy to get promoted:
- June: Medina (indeed, promoted mid July)
- July: none.
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
- June: Manzueta
- July: Manzueta or Sarit, who’s a year older and repeating the level with no good results.
That’s it for July 2026.