As I write this post on 6/17/26, the Washington Nationals baseball team sits at 39-35. Four games over .500 for the first time since the 2019 season, and if the season ended today they’ve be the last NL Wild Card.
To say that I’m generally shocked the team is in this position is putting things lightly.
When the team cut bait on its pre-FA stars in July 2021 (Schwarber, Turner, Scherzer) and then again in Aug 2022 (Soto), I figured we were on another 5 year rebuilding path, not unlike the one we endured as fans starting in 2008. That rebuild plan ran into a bit of a snag though, as ownership turned over and the new group refused to spend money to augment the roster when injuries took out key planned contributors. A real gap in player development thanks to basically 5 straight blown drafts from 2016-2020 doomed the team from really having any chance to compete without those FAs, and we drifted for years.
The new regime, marked by its openness to analytics and its youth, seemed like it was preparing the 2026 season to be a 60-win team, trading away its best arm for prospects, grabbing a half a dozen waiver claims throughout the beginning of the year, and starting the 2026 season with fully 1/4 of its opening day roster being comprised of Rule5, Waiver claims, or MLFAs while sending down a slew of guys who ended the 2025 season on the MLB roster.
I was convinced this was a “bottoming out” technique, just grabbing spare parts off the waiver wire to see who stuck at the expense of guys like Crews, or Hassell, or Parker.
Well, damned if it doesn’t look like its working. We’re nearly to the halfway point of the season and the team is at 39-35. How? Well, somehow this team leads the league in Runs scored, and they sit 3rd (behind only the LAD and NYY) in terms of total team wRC+. That’s patently amazing. Wood and Abrams of course, but Ruiz is crushing the ball all of a sudden, Garcia is holding his own, Lile continues to be productive, found-gold Mead is hitting for a ton of power, and even most of the fringe infielders are holding their own.
The starters collectively aren’t great for the season… but after weathering the April storm, the starters have gone from dead last in multiple metrics to middle-of the road. The Relievers are still awful, but just less awful as the manager has used openers freely (a first for the organization), has not been afraid to call up guys to give innings, and we have a few guys who we can now count on when the chips are down. The team continues almost weekly to sign additional veteran MLFAs, who are waiting in the wings like army reinforcements, ready to come up and help out and see who can stick.
It’s amazing really. They’ve won 10 of their last 11 series! How is that possible?
Now for the big question; you can’t possibly sell at the trade deadline if you’re in playoff contention, can you?? The entire off-season was talking about flipping Gore and Abrams … you can’t possibly break this team up now, can you? Now, if they go on a swoon and go on a 10-20 stretch … sure. That’s probably be too big of a gap to overcome. but, again, they’ve won 10 of their last 11 series; they’re more likely to go 20-10 than 10-20 right now.
Anyway. It seems like I rarely write about the big league team since .. well, tracking prospects and dreaming on guys in Low-A is more fun than hyper analyzing a second division team, which they’ve been basically from the moment they won the 2019 World Series. But fair is fair; this rag tag team seems like it could absolutely be in the playoffs in October. Amazing.
I think we’ve seen plenty of teams sell from contention, and a couple even sell from playoff spots. And this season has all the earmarks of it for the Nats.
1. We have no shot at the division.
2. There are 5+ teams within a couple games of the last WC spot.
3. On paper, we are less talented than the other contending teams.
4. Relatedly, we weren’t expecting to compete and made decisions in the offseason that seem a little foolish if we end up buyers.
Honestly, selling while sitting in WC3 is exactly the kind of “smart” cold-bloodedness that would be on-brand for our young, analytically minded FO. They might even be right that it maximizes cumulative expected championships.
I think they hold to a very high price for Abrams, but they move him if someone is willing to pay. And, either way, I think they trade the rental starters, if they can. Soroka got us Ronny Cruz, so I don’t see them holding Griffin. Who knows what the market will be like on the others, but they’ll take anything they can get.
SMS
17 Jun 26 at 2:14 pm
Abrams is a tough call. If I’m Toboni, I’d be urgently having talks with Abrams’ camp about an extension. If there’s truly no common ground, then a trade may be necessary. But that’s a HARD pill to swallow at the moment.
Rather, Toboni needs to be looking at how he can make this team better NOW and in the future. And that need not be trading away Abrams (or Wood).
The Mariners just announced they’re going to switch to a weird 5 man rotation composed of 6 SPs, who swap piggybacking one of the others. Simply put, they have too many SPs, and they’ve got even more in the wings with Kade Anderson (remember him?) seemingly ready to debut now too. On the other hand, their bats suck. Their OF, after Julio Rodriguez, is especially weak. Victor Robles has turned back into a pumpkin, but is their starting RF. They’re basically the mirror opposite of the Nats.
I wonder if there’s a trade to be made swapping Dylan Crews for one of their three too many SPs? Crews hits free agency after 2030. Bryan Woo has one year of control less, but has been worth about 8 WAR over the past 3ish seasons with a low 3 ERA.
It makes both teams better in the short term and long term. The Mariners get a potentially franchise OF centerpiece, but with considerably more bust potential than 2 years ago, and the Nationals get a kind of #3/4 SP to the rotation for the next 3.5 seasons.
If not the Mariners, there must be some other suitors out there will some arms looking for some offense. OF is basically the only position of depth that we have without mortgaging the future, and I think Crews has the most trade value (and the least present day value) of our OFs, Wood excepted. It might be wise to trade him while that remains, unlike the guy who Crews would be replacing in this hypothetical trade, Victor Robles (Remember when the Nats balked at trading Robles for Realmuto?).
Will
17 Jun 26 at 3:44 pm
“the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching”. I read that somewhere.
no way do they hang in the race unless they acquire more pitching, starters and relievers.
no way they make a deal if selling low (Crews)
no way they can afford to loose assets while in a rebuild. if they want Abrams, extend him, if they don’t deal him.
the next seven games could very well put a damper on any thoughts of contending. either way the team has shown tremendous growth. that was after all, the goal this season
FredMD
18 Jun 26 at 8:19 am
@SMS: I tend to agree with your sentiment. If we’re at the trade deadline sitting 2 games above .500 and fighting for the final WC spot, we should still sell.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/index.fcgi?date=2025-07-31
Here was the Standings as of the trade deadline last year as an example: Cincinnati sat at 57-53, 3.5 games out of the final WC spot. The 6 playoff teams as of 7/31 were Mil, CHC, LAD, NYM, PHI, and SDP. The actual 6 playoff teams last year ended up being MIL, CHC, LAD, PHI, SDP, and CIN. Both Cin and NYM finished 83-79, meaning basically Cincinnati played exactly .500 ball from July 31st to the end of the season and got the last WC spot on account of a h2h tiebreaker over a Mets team that collapsed.
For their troubles, Cincinnati flew to Los Angeles and got pulverized by the Dodgers. The Losing pitcher in the final game of Cincinnati’s season? Zach Littel.
Anyway. As a Nats fan, if we were in Cincinnati’s situation, which almost exactly mirrors where we sit right now in mid June (3-4 games over .500 and in competition for the last WC spot, which would buy us an away playoff series where we’d be a huge underdog) what would I rather have? Would I rather be realistic in the aims of the franchise and flip players for more prospects, or do i push through, keep what I have for the hope of … losing two straight to a team like Milwaukee (who is the 3rd best division leader right now at nearly 20 games over .500 and who would host a WC round against the last team in).
I’d rather get the prospects frankly.
Todd Boss
18 Jun 26 at 10:51 am
@Will: here’s my thoughts on Abrams. The league KNOWS he’s a sh*t shortstop defensively. But, he’s infinitely more valuable as a “SS” in trade. Even to a team that knows better. I present you the New York Yankees, who sent down their chosen SS replacement in Volpe and who sit today with both Judge and Stanton on the DL. They’d be a perfect fit for Abrams; he plays SS, he hits bombs until their hitters come back, then they become an incredibly feared lineup. Oh, and he’s lefty, swinging at a short porch. Then it becomes’ NY’s problem as to whether they ask Abrams to move to 2B (where they’re currently starting the. 229 hitting Jazz Chisholm) or leave him at SS and just eat the bad defense.
Letting Abrams go is more palatable knowing what’s coming. Seaver King has held his own since getting to AAA and has a .813 OPS there. And he’s a “70 defender” if you believe Keith Law. King can hold down SS until Willits is ready to take it over in a few years, or maybe the end of next season if he continues his current trajectory, at which point the versatile King moves to 3B, or 2B, or even the OF rotation.
Because, if we keep Abrams, at some point he has to move to 2B for us. Maybe that comes with a King promotion, where we can finally sit Nunez, but that’s a tough pill to swallow for any prideful fielder. Do you extend Abrams and commit to him , then ask him to move positions? I don’t think so.
Todd Boss
18 Jun 26 at 10:58 am
You know, Todd, I don’t actually agree that they should sell. I just think that they will sell.
My utility function for baseball is very far from maximizing expected championships. A long exciting season where playoffs are plausible isn’t reduced to ashes just because we end up falling short. Those wins aren’t wasted – they’re enjoyed.
But I also wouldn’t have traded Gore for that package, and I definitely would have signed Murakami or O’Hearn, so it’s obvious that this FO is thinking about the team differently than I do.
If I was in charge of the team’s strategy at the deadline, I think I’d buy small. Just a couple decent relievers. I’d try to trade from the surplus of high-minors OF, but would be willing to move a couple pitchers that I rank in the back end of the top 30 like Swan or D Garcia or Randall.
But I also 100% agree that the team would still be unlikely to make the playoffs and even more unlikely to have success should they make it. I understand that a lot of fans would prefer the prospects, even if I wouldn’t. And I think this front office would strongly prefer the prospects.
SMS
18 Jun 26 at 12:00 pm
There’s a huge difference between exchanging dollars for MLB players on the one hand, and exchanging players for players (whether MLB or non-MLB) on the other. I am 100% in favor of trading dollars for players. For one, the dollars aren’t mine and it’s trivially easy to spend other peoples’ money. For two, the “other peoples’ money” I’m proposing to spend is the Lerner family’s, and they can do with fewer dollars so I and thousands/millions of Nats fans can enjoy the team a bit more.
The calculus with players is quite different because you can’t just make more players, especially good ones. I wouldn’t sell *any* amount of prospect inventory to get better relief pitchers at this trade deadline, no matter what the standings say. If the team’s position in the standings is such that it *could* make sense to be buyers, then I think the MLB games we watch are likely to be reasonably exciting to watch anyway–without a few extra bullpen arms. All that prospect inventory can be used in future deals for more important pieces.
The harder question is whether we sell if we’re in the same spot. Losing Garcia/Mikolas/Littell and especially Griffin would endanger staying competitive for the rest of the season, which I do agree has some value for the average fan. I think there are plausible replacements in the org for the first group but not for Griffin, so I would draw a line at him (again, if the standings remain similar to what they are today).
The much harder question is what to do with CJ. I think the optimal choice for the franchise is to sign him to an extension to play 2B. It takes two to tango, however, and I have no idea (nor does anybody else) whether CJ would do that. It only takes one GM to think he can play SS, and athletes are known for their irrational confidence. My own view (which is based more on spidey sense than evidence) is that the premium for position players at the trade deadline is small/nonexistent, unlike with pitchers (especially relief pitchers). I understand the rationale for trading CJ. Given what’s happening with the standings, I’d encourage the FO to trade him in the offseason if that’s what they think is best. Trading the second best player on the team in a pennant race would be justifiably deflating for the fanbase. I think holding until the offseason is a cheap form of fan service.
Derek
18 Jun 26 at 12:23 pm
On CJ, I think that moving him at the deadline is sliding further off of the table with every series that the Nats win. Does it not happen? Hell, the team traded Juan Soto, a move that was savaged at the time and in hindsight looks kind of amazing. But I don’t expect anyone to offer a Juan Soto-type of deal for Abrams. If they do, take it and run. If they don’t nothing stops you from moving Abrams in the offseason, either before or after the coming lockout.
In 2024 the Tigers sold off at the deadline, then went on an insane closing kick, made the playoffs, won the WC round, and lasted until Game 5 of the ALDS. Baseball is weird.
John C.
18 Jun 26 at 1:54 pm
I also wouldn’t be in such a hurry to turn the SS position over to Seaver King. In addition to there being some questions (non-Kieth Law division) about his defense, he’s currently posting a wRC+ of 108 in AAA and is slightly overperforming his stats (wOBA of .357, xwOBA of .323). For a guy who just turned 23 in his first taste of AAA that’s perfectly fine. But it doesn’t scream “call him up NOW.” Especially since adding him to the 40 man roster would mean that the coaches could not work with him once the lockout starts and that he would not be able to play in the minors if the lockout causes the majors to lose games.
John C.
18 Jun 26 at 2:32 pm
The Soto deal wasn’t savaged at the time because of the return. The Soto deal was savaged at the time because we all wanted a Hall of Fame star to play his entire career in DC.
I think the almost universal reaction to the trade was “Trading Soto sucks but, if you’re going to trade a player like Soto, at least get a package like this.”
Abrams is clearly much worse than Soto, but he’ll still probably be the best offensive player available at the deadline. A package like a 55, a 50 and 2 45s sounds both plausible and difficult to refuse, even if we’re sitting in WC3. (For reference, the Soto deal at the time was scouted as 1 60[Abrams], 1 55[Gore] and 2 50s[Hassell and Wood].)
SMS
18 Jun 26 at 2:37 pm
So, on the Soto trade, I had to lookup what I wrote at the time: https://nationalsarmrace.com/?p=17784
My judgement for the deal in hindsight: aging pretty well! I wrote “I think this is a *fantastic* haul.”
As compared to my not aging well take on the Gore trade … https://nationalsarmrace.com/?p=19387
Literally titled, So, Is that all we could get for MacKenzie Gore??” Now, just a couple months into the season … with Fitz-Gerald and Cabrera both promoted, with Ortiz giving AAA ann 868 OPS, with Fien having a great June … and with Gore not exactly lighting it up for Texas … so far so good.
Anyway. Back to Abrams and King. Totall agree with JohnC; definitely not in a hurry promoting King. But, if he puts up numbers for a couple more months … that’s all it took to get him to AAA. If Abrams is here, put King at 2B. If Abrams is traded, put Nunez there, backfill 2B with Tena or Vivas until King is ready. Maybe Sept would be a nice
But that entire paragraph i just wrote is presuming a sell-off. I agree with @Derek’s sentiment; the more this team wins, the less likely we’ll see selling. Even the latest McDaniel Trade deadline article only put Abrams at about 15% of being moved …
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49082474/ranking-mlb-trade-deadline-candidates-top-100-skubal-chapman-peralta-arraez
Todd Boss
18 Jun 26 at 3:54 pm
@Todd – I think your take on Gore is aging just fine.
He’s at 1.5 fWAR, which is even slightly outpacing the 3.0 that Zips had on him preseason. And even if you’re focused on his ERA, it’s still a full run better than Irvin’s or Mikolas’s or Littel’s. Given where we currently sitting on the win curve, the loss of Gore is clearly hurt our competitiveness more than the team expected.
And I think the prospect package is what we thought it was too. Fien has had to have lost some value moving off the dirt. Keeping him at a 45 is generous. Cabrera looked great at Fredericksburg, but he turns 21 in a couple of weeks so it’s hard to get that excited about him solving low A. Still a 40+. Ortiz has a lower AAA wRC+ than he did last year (and has gotten 0 ML PAs for a team that has routinely plays Jose Tena at DH – draw your own conclusions there). Still a 40. Roasrio’s grade is clearly unchanged from preseason. I have him as a 45+, but consensus is probably a half grade or so lower.
I’ll admit the Fitz-Gerald has been better than expected, but I still think a 50 is a bit of a reach. I have him as a 45+, up from a 45 at the time of the trade.
All in all, I’d still call that an underwhelming return.
SMS
18 Jun 26 at 6:54 pm
OK, so I just can’t get over how maddening it is seeing Nunez play 2b while Abrams plays SS. I get “CJ is all that _and_ he’s a (terrible) shortstop! Trade us your farm!”. It’s stupid, because everyone knows he’s bad at it, but whatever.
But if you’re even half-ass trying to make a run at the WC, you should be squeezing everything you can out of what you have. That means playing your best shortstop AT SHORTSTOP and playing your lesser-but-hits-amazing guy at 2b.
Nunez is having a great couple weeks offensively, and I’m not sure what stat it is, but I’d like to use one that adds his “is certain to steal 1 or 2 bases if he gets on” to his anemic hitting stats. And just like with Young, any OPS over 600 makes his truly special glove worth keeping in the lineup.
kevin r
21 Jun 26 at 9:45 am
@KevinR: My dream scenario: Yankees come to us and say, “we’ll trade four of our best prospects for Abrams right now.” We put Nunez at short, promote King to play 2b .. and don’t skip a beat offensively.
Pipe dream? probably.
Todd Boss
21 Jun 26 at 1:47 pm
@Todd I love that idea — especially if those prospects are starting pitchers whose UCLs are in one piece.
kevin r
22 Jun 26 at 11:22 pm
I’m not blind to CJ’s defensive issues, but it’s so disorienting to hear him praised nightly on baseball shows as one of the best SS in the National League as he leads the vote to start at SS in the ASG and then go to the InterNats and see so many sofa warriors dumping on him. Even with those defensive issues Abrams is currently on pace for a 5-6 WAR season (2.6 fWAR/3.0 bWAR just short of the halfway point). That’s … really good.
And the idea that after moving Abrams (146 wRC+) and replacing him in the lineup with Seaver King (112 wRC+ in AAA) the Nats wouldn’t skip a beat offensively is closer to wishful thinking than a pipe dream.
John C.
23 Jun 26 at 1:45 pm
I agree with John C here. Even when you include his defense, Abrams is tied for the third best SS in the sport so far this season. Guys like Mason Wynn and Xander Bogaerts are putting up decent numbers on contenders. Abrams has more produced more value than those two put together. Yes, his defense sucks, and playing him at short is suboptimal in a vacuum, but even if Abrams’s contract or his ego or whatever required him to stay at SS, almost every team in the league would be interested.
I’m on record saying that I believe this FO doesn’t value success that falls short of a championship, and that kind of utility function would rationally imply that Abrams is likely still available for a fair price. But the idea that we can expect King or Willits or anyone to step in and replace Abrams is bonkers. There just doesn’t exist a prospect that has a median projection of a 5 WAR season.
You probably gain about 1 WAR/season from moving Nuñez to short because of the greater impact of his defense there. But, generously projecting King to match Konnor Griffin’s start (league average bat, 1.0 fWAR in 51 games), you’d lose 3 WAR/season with King at 2B instead of Abrams at SS.
Also, I’m pretty sure the trade value argument against pushing Abrams to 2nd isn’t “We played him at short, therefore he’s a shortstop and must be valued as such.” I just think there’s pretty clear risk without much upside in giving the league a long look at Abrams playing second base. What happens to his value if he struggles with the position change?
SMS
23 Jun 26 at 2:32 pm
You know who has the 4th best bWAR on the team right now? Nasim Nunez! Almost entirely b/c of defense … from 2B, a position many teams “hide” lesser defensive players. Amazing.
how bad is Abrams’ defense? 17th out of 18 in qualified SS
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&season=2026&season1=2026&ind=0&stats=fld&pos=ss&type=1
Only guy who is worse is Willy Adams, who had 30hrs last two seasons. Right above him is JP Crawford, who’s had a 110ops+ figure last two seasons.
If you can hit, you can play. You can put up with lesser defense if you’re bashing your way around the league.
The trade conversation with Abrams is becoming more difficult, the better he becomes. A year ago it was, “why aren’t we moving him we’re going nowhere.” Now it’s starting to morph into, “hey maybe we should be building around this guy as part of a core that can actually do something in the postseason.”
Todd Boss
24 Jun 26 at 1:42 pm
It’s true that, using bWAR, Nunez is 4th behind Abrams, Wood, and Griffin. Using fWAR, he’s tied for 6th with Griffin (fWAR is not a big fan of Griffin) and Joey Wiemer behind Wood, Abrams, Cavalli, Ruiz, and JY.
John C.
25 Jun 26 at 3:00 pm