T Good luck in the Bay Area. Photo unk.
Quick thoughts on the Tyler Clippard for Yunel Escobar deal that went down Wednesday night.
- Bummed to see Clippard go. I got a chance to play golf with him a few years back and he’s a real nice guy. Nothing but a gentleman on the course, just a guy who liked playing golf in his spare time. The thing that made me laugh the most from the game was his telling us that he rides his bike to the ball park every night … and then back home at midnight, through some rather sketchy streets around the stadium, all the way back to the townhouse he shared with Drew Storen on capitol hill. If you’ve never been to Oakland’s stadium … well lets say I hope Clippard doesn’t try to ride his bike home at night from there.
- Does Clippard get a shot at the closer role in Oakland? Probably not; Sean Doolittle took over for the deposed Jim Johnson last year and did pretty well. Very well actually: a 0.7 whip and a 1.71 FIP. Not bad.
- I tend to agree with the Mike Axisa CBSsports.com analysis posted here; Nats have some interesting flexibility now with Escobar. He could be the 2B starter (making the transition from SS to 2B is an easy one for a quality infielder). He could enable the team to move Ian Desmond and have Escobar be the starting shortstop until Trea Turner is ready (or proves himself not to be up to the task … Escobar is signed through 2016 with an easy 2017 option).
Is this a good trade for the Nationals? Clippard was a vital and valuable part of the bullpen; is he replaceable? Not easily. The Nats have shed two of their three best relievers from last year with no real replacements (no, i’m not counting Heath Bell) other than internal promotions. Perhaps this means we’ll see a couple of middle relief veteran signings now. I think this also could mean Blake Treinen‘s being called into reliever duty instead of being in the Syracuse rotation. Who pitches the 8th inning now? Aaron Barrett?
Even given Clippard’s value, his escalating salary did mean he made more sense as a closer for another team. Maybe that happens in Oakland regardless. Or maybe Billy Beane keeps on dealing and moves Clippard again. But the Nats plugged a hole for now and potentially for the next two years as well; a price that had to be paid for what they acquired. And lets be honest; it is probably easier to find a good right handed reliever than it is to find a MLB-average offensive shortstop.
Escobar’s offensive numbers were a tick below MLB average last year; an improvement over the presumed person he’s deposing in Danny Espinosa. What’s more of an unknown is his defense; he was excellent in 2013, awful in 2014 in terms of range factors. Since you don’t need nearly the range at 2nd, i’m guessing he’s going to be an excellent defender there by default. So to this effect, he fits the Rizzo mold. Good defender, decent offensive player.
The knock on Escobar, of course, is character. It stems from an incident in 2009 while with Toronto when he put the words “Tu ere maricon” on his eyeblack. As I noted in the comments section, I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt here, believing that the media took one of many possible interpretations of this common latin insult (and hopefully not the one he meant) and ran with it … suddenly the message and the story that remains to this day is that he used an “anti-gay slur” and that Escobar is “homophobic.” Or perhaps not: according to a wikipedia guide of Spanish profanity, the term maricon as used by Cubans in particular most likely means exactly what he’s accused of saying. I dunno; what’s the statue of limitations for making a poor decision?
Some random reactions to all this:
Clip is probably in the Nats hall of fame, not including the Expos. He has been a hugely productive guy for the team, and deserves the appreciation from us fans. Well done, and thanks, Clip.
But he seemed an obvious guy to go, to clear some payroll space. That is a very expensive reliever. But I think this weakens us in 2015.
I’d be fine with no significant bullpen addition, and putting Treinen and Cole there for this year. I know we can’t: where is the SP depth? But still, it would be good to see how they do. I’d look for a potential deadline deal for a good reliever, if they Nats are in it as expected.
Escobar – meh. I don’t think its a bad return for Clip, unless 2014 is the new normal, but he isn’t someone that is too interesting to me. Whether he made the slur or not, I think his rep as a malcontent is broader than that. ATL seemed to sour on him quickly. I don’t hate him, but I see him as almost identical to AssCab, maybe a little bit better fielder. It is pretty clear that the Nats do not see Espy as a starter – ever – and boy, it sure looks like Desi is gone too.
I am curious where they see a sustainable payroll level, but then again, I am in one of these funks where I see the MASN handwriting coloring everything right now. I asked Cameron in his chat if he thought any of these walk-year guys would be resigned, and he thought no. We’ll see.
Wally
14 Jan 15 at 10:00 pm
OK, so the next shoe has dropped.
Count me as surprised if Escobar starts the season in the starting lineup. The trade feels transitional to me – as in – transitional to other moves yet to be consummated.
Apart from the dullness of replacing an allstar with an average everyday player with a good contract, what I cannot get my head around is the idea of Escobar being the replacement for Desmond. Really?! naaaaw.
I just don’t see Escobar as a player you win a World Series with, whether he is supposed to rebound or not. This is the player Tampa Bay traded, you might say, opting for…Cabrera!
As for Clippard, count me among those who feel he will be replaceable. Even if the replacement isn’t Blake Treinen (hey, maybe it’ll be Rafael Martin in the 7th inning 😉 But bonne chance. He was great! And he sure did put a lot of miles on that arm.
Lesson: 5+ relievers will only fetch you so much. Perhaps controllable starting middle infielders fetch more…Oakland certainly gave up plenty for Escobar and Zobrist.
forensicane
14 Jan 15 at 10:05 pm
Another note. Every TB acquisition comes with the input of Cubbage. The Nats have fully diligenced Escobar behind the scenes.
forensicane
14 Jan 15 at 10:14 pm
We have plenty of righty power arms in the system to replace Soriano and Clippard at a far lower cost. And, Clip has A LOT of miles on that very productive arm. Sell high.
Unless Yunel is a real jerk, this is a good trade. Big upgrade from Danny, we save $4MM this year, and he’s controllable for a few years to bridge to the Wilmer/Trea show. Hopefully he’s not a real jerk…
Andrew R
14 Jan 15 at 10:42 pm
I just don;t see Escobar being on this team as the starter at 2b or at SS. To me, this trade is one in which Beane and Rizzo swapped tradeable parts.
Clippard can be swapped or used in the 8th inning (but the A’s don’t really want to pay 9m for a setup man either), and if the Nats can’t package Escobar further, he is a better starting option if they 1) cannot upgrade at 2B or 2) lose Desmond after the year.
As for Espinosa, I don;t even think Escobar supplants him. Spinner is great defensive replacement wherever and Escobar has barely played 2B.
I also don’t buy the “bridge to Difo and Turner” idea. Both are far from a sure thing. And this is a championship team, not one looking for bridges.
I may be nuts, but I just think this is the first domino. Rizzo has had enough trade talks to know who needs what. Buckle up!
forensicane
14 Jan 15 at 10:51 pm
Well OK, then. First reaction, I’m pleased; not doing cartwheels, but pleased. One year of Clippard netted a starting middle infielder who is signed for two plus an option year – the perfect “bridge” guy.
I agree with nearly all that has been said about Clippard. He was absolutely integral to the team’s rise and success, and he seems like a good guy. But he has a lot of mileage, he tends to wear down at the end of seasons and leave the ball up, and there was no way the Nats were going to pay him $9M this year. The one certainty of the offseason seemed to be that Clippard would be traded. I suggested several times that it would be to the A’s as part of a three-way deal because Billy wouldn’t want to keep him at that price. I stand by that, even if it’s a slow-developing three-way.
What I like about Escobar is that he has consistently gotten on base at an above-average clip and that he doesn’t strike out that much. The Nats need more players like that. He’s well ahead of Cabrera in both categories (and Espinosa, of course). For the #8 hitter, the main thing you want is someone who’ll work to extend the inning, not flail wildly.
Good point from forensicane about Cubbage being able to testify to how Escobar is in the clubhouse, so that point would seem to answer that question.
I don’t think that Escobar’s presence leads to a Desmond trade. It could make Espinosa more expendable, although they’d be selling low on him.
All in all, this checks the biggest box.
KW
15 Jan 15 at 5:27 am
This trade definitely weakens the bullpen. I don’t think that it weakens the team in 2015 though. Unless you were really looking forward to 5-600 plate appearances from Danny Espinosa.
As for Cabrera as an alternative, there are whispers that he signed for less money in Tampa because they told him that they were moving Escobar and that he would get first shot at playing SS. In a season to re-establish his value, this is a big deal because SS get paid more. That, and he was on record as saying he preferred to play SS.
Also, Escobar is likely to be better than Cabrera. Escobar’s defense has been better for years; a one year anomaly in defensive metrics is not meaningless but is very suspect. And offensively even in Escobar’s down season his OBP was 17 points higher than Cabrera’s. And while Cabrera’s OPS was better, remember that he played most of the season in a very offense-friendly home park (Wrigley Field) and the rest in Nats Park, a neutral park. Cabrera played in Tropicana Field, a very pitcher-friendly park. If you look at numbers for the past three years, Escobar was clearly better offensively. This is why Fangraphs projects Escobar to be a more valuable player (1.8 WAR) than Cabrera (1.6 WAR) in 2015 despite the fact that their projection system (Steamer) weights to recent results.
John C.
15 Jan 15 at 12:13 pm
a few more thoughts…
1) This trade, from the Nats standpoint, reflects the organization concession that they were not going to get a top prospect for Clippard as a 5+ making the huge money he has coming in arbitration. Getting a potential starter in return was better than one year and a walk. Hard to argue with that, even though I don’t think Escobar will ever start for the Nats unless an injury happens.
2) In the vein of the loss of value with 9 million likely due Clippard, putting the contracts in place for Zimmerman and for Desmond were great strokes last year, for arbitration would have been more painful for a prospective suitor.
3) The trade for Butler is now more telling. He has excellent bonafides for catching skills and has a good enough bat to be the prospective replacement for Sandy Leon as “next man up” in the event of an injury at catcher. With numerous catchers hitting DFA, including Lavarnaway, the Nats passed on each and all. So they were patient and likely, at 39 men on the roster, are waiting on another useful part they can see falling as teams reshuffle their rosters.
4) With that said, the purge of upper level outfield depth has been extreme and has created, within a year, a potential dearth unless Goodwin can come back to relevance. Burns had no future here, fine, but with Souza’s departure, it feels more like we should have made room to have Destin Hood on the 40 Man roster. The Eury Perez-Pedro Florimon shuffle proved to be a waste, though Perez was out of options and in the same boat as Sandy Leon. But the organization would have been better for a Destin Hood with roster flexibility, especially in light of the Werth injury.
5) I think the Turner-Difo talk is irrational exuberance. Neither has demonstrated the ability to master the game above low A! We cannot help but fall into that tick. But I doubt the Nats management feels that way. Turner, for example, could end up at any number of positions. I say this because the acquisition of Bostick, also a middle infielder, even younger, and with his own set of tools, is representative of what the organization must do – don;t get bridges, but stock and stock and stock to create tradeable surplus for Gio Gonzalez deals that may be needed down the road.
6) I still feel like the Nats have it in them to trade both Zimmerman and Desmond in the same deal to a team that has the coin and the prospect depth. perhaps the Cubs-Castro offseason baggage works to their advantage. I think the Mets chatter works to manipulate the Yankees well, who lurk and would do something like that. And the Yanks have tremendous depth of highly talented low minors players that are pennies on the dollar for what Moncada will cost.
7) With that said, the ostensible selling point for one of the Cuban 2B in play is a Cuban SS to team with. Remember that wherever Fernandez or Olivera (I can’t see the Nats paying for Moncada) sign, they look to being strangers making a huge cultural adjustment. Coming as the deal is right now, Escobar may be an intriguing recruiter to countrymen second basemen who don’t give a hoot about his eye black.
forensicane
15 Jan 15 at 12:31 pm
A quick point on Clippard vs Escobar straight up: Despite clippard’s value to our team and our bullpen, he delivered 1.5 bWAR last season and 1.8 the season before that. His peak bWAR season was his fantastic 2011, giving the team 3.4 bWAR. Meanwhile Escobar’s bWAR figures are curious: -0.2 last year, 3.3, 2.9 and 4.7 the three years before that. Escobar’s defensive value dropped off a cliff in 2014 for some reason, turning him into a slightly negative bWAR person.
So you can try to squint and see two things: Escobar’s offenseive WAR additions have stayed consistent while the squirrley defensive metrics killed his value in 2014. If he can maintain his offensive numbers as well as cna be expected for a guy entering his age 32 season and move to second, where he can probably re-up his defensive value … he should eclipse what Clippard would have delivered in terms of WAR value.
perhaps bad WAR math, since we’re now forced to replace a high-leverage reliever with an unknown, but we do know who we’re replacing at second base; one of the least productive positions in the majors last year.
Todd Boss
15 Jan 15 at 12:48 pm
Not to wish Clippard ill, but his warranty is going to run out at some point, as he’s been used A LOT. I just hope for his sake he can get the big payday next offseason before it does.
Treinen seems like an obvious 8th-inning guy (or even closer). Would they use him there for 2015 while still thinking of him as a potential starter for 2016?
For the regular season, the bullpen will be fine, all the more so because I would expect all the starters to regularly work deep into games. The playoffs may be another matter, as we’ve seen. It would be hard to bring in better quality than what they’ve got without an overpay, though; after all, they just traded a top-shelf $9M setup man. I’m trying not to even allow myself the fantasy of the Nats being able to get into the bidding for Kimbrel.
Speaking of the Bravos, with Gattis following J-Up out of town, here’s an early wager that Freeman leads the league in walks!
KW
15 Jan 15 at 1:16 pm
Excellent article on fangraphs about Clippard’s uniqueness: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/many-of-the-ways-that-tyler-clippard-is-unusual/
Todd Boss
15 Jan 15 at 1:18 pm
Clippard’s mileage: no argument at all. In fact, as much as I like Clippard, i had started to fee like he was losing his edge. His numbers in 2014 weren’t that different from 2013 … but his dominance felt like it was ebbing. Its still a loss to the bullpen no doubt … but acquiring a SS with years of control for a highly paid middle relief guy is a great piece of business by Rizzo.
Todd Boss
15 Jan 15 at 1:19 pm
Rizzo comments – very telling. Serious organizational hardball with Desmond now. He’s shown he is not afraid to trade anyone, including integral pieces, and he is able to give the impression that he has a replacement in place *if need be.*
Never said Escobar was his starting 2B. Only said Danny was on the bench.
The team can trade Desmond for quality and quantity without regard for getting a 2015 starter back now. That gives them more flexibility about whom they might match up with.
Let’s see how much Desmond is willing to provide a home team discount. Must be an interesting window happening now in the Desmond camp, unless the candor behind closed doors makes it clear to them already that he’s as good as gone.
forensicane
15 Jan 15 at 4:55 pm
Nats reportedly offered Desmond 7/$107 and he rejected it. That would pay him AAV of north of $15M/year through his age 35 season. I think Desmond was a fool to reject that, and now thanks to his down 2014 he’s lost value and if i’m the Nats i don’t even go 6/$15M aav. No wonder the team is shopping him; if he wouldn’t take a 9 figure deal, what would he take??
In some respects, I wonder if Scherzer is getting the same treatment from Detroit.
Todd Boss
15 Jan 15 at 10:16 pm
More palace intrigue – Boswell writes an article critical of the Lerner’s spending. I distinctly remember his writing a column implying that the Lerners were holding the reigns on Rizzo from making a big move. 24-48 hours later, Gio Gonzalez trade happened.
I wonder whether indeed there is am effort to push folks together on Desmond, Zimm, or even all three.
I need to correct an error above. Clearly Rizzo was speaking about Escobar in starting 2B terms. I still think they have bigger game in mind.
forensicane
15 Jan 15 at 10:32 pm
I have referred to it a few times recently, and Boz hits it squarely, but I wonder whether the spectre of losing the MASN arbitration, and believing that their revenue payments from MASN will be a fair bit lower, has influenced their decisions this offseasons towards more of a rebuild than a reload (meaning let most of these guys go).
But put aside Desi – I think the org is making a business decision that he is too flawed of a player for the kind of contract he appears to want (and is probably going to get, imo). But Harper at Nationals Baseball posed an interesting question the other day: JZ and Stras are young, homegrown, upper echelon pitchers that have not been pitched hard (via IPs and pitch counts), and are healthy (since TJ). These guys usually get signed to extensions. If the Nats don’t extend one or both of these guys, it is a fairly clear signal to not expect high level pitcher extensions ever (essentially ‘if not these guys, who?’). Giolito or Fedde become stars, probably just have them through their years of control. There is time left to see how all of this plays out, but there is logic there.
Separately, in depth review of the farm system on Fangraphs by Kiley McDaniel. He seemed pretty bullish, although much discussion in the comments about a somewhat lower-than-expected grade for Taylor and Cole.
Wally
16 Jan 15 at 8:01 am
I was a bit shocked by Boz’s piece, which I just read. He’s clearly in the tank for Desmond. I completely agree with Todd on this one, though – Desi turned down a market-level deal, had a regression season, and continues to talk tough about what he wants. The team has no choice but to make other plans. Signing a guy who already appears to be starting his decline for six or seven years would be insane.
My thought, even before seeing Harper G’s piece or reading Boz, is that the Nats are going to use the room they’re clearing for a big extension for a pitcher or two. The one who would make the most sense to extend, talent-wise and age-wise, would be Strasburg, but he would also be the hardest one to sign early. But really, I’ve always thought that if this franchise is going to push its chips to the center of the table for any players, it was going to be Strasburg, Harper, and now Rendon. Desi just doesn’t mean the same to the franchise as those guys, no matter how much premium you add for SS. J-Zim has improved to the level that he has nudged himself into that conversation, but at the same time, he may have improved to the point that he’s priced himself out of it.
I find it difficult to come down too hard on an ownership that has been willing to spend in the $135-150M range, all the more so while hamstrung by the MASN stupidity. If you can’t build a solid team with that kind of scratch, the fault is in the front office, not the penthouse. The Nats’ front office is just making the moves it has to make to live in that neighborhood, and it seems to be making them reasonably well. It just can’t pay full freight for every mid-level star, nor should it. Ask the Phillies how that worked out for them.
KW
16 Jan 15 at 8:27 am
Enjoyed the Fangraphs piece on the farm system. Whenever Todd has time for a post, it might be good to roll together some of these links see what they mean. In addition to what Wally noted about underselling Taylor and Cole, I was surprised at how much McDaniel LOVES Lopez.
KW
16 Jan 15 at 8:30 am
Link to Boswell article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/washington-nationals-got-a-second-baseman-in-yunel-escobar-but-did-they-get-better/2015/01/15/50ab1246-9cec-11e4-a7ee-526210d665b4_story.html
I’m so P8ssed at this article. He evidences himself as a fact cherry picking dinosaur in this article, full of hypocritical and self-disagreeing points. In no particular order:
– focuses on character, as we thought he would with a long-serving well liked player and a guy who made a mistake 5 years ago
– Whines about bullpen construction but then uses Detwiler as an example over and over … you know, Ross Detwiler, the guy the team left OFF the post season roster. If Detwiler is so vital to playoff team bullpen depth … then why wasn’t he even on the playoff roster?
– Fails to mention the fact that the Nats were vastly overpaying their bullpen, between Soriano’s 8 figure deal, Clippard’s rising price tag, Storen’s similarly rising price tag. You need one high priced guy in the bullpen, not several.
– doesn’t talk about the REASONS that Escobar struggled last year; go look at his injury report for 2014; he had a thumb contusion, a shoulder issue, a thigh issue and a knee issue last year. Well duh, no wonder he struggled with his defensive range and at the plate. Just look at his three prior years: solid offensive production and excellent war.
– Actually uses Dan Uggla as a comparison point against Escobar. Really?
– Strongly talks about that old war horse “Club house Chemistry.” Hey boswell; if the team wins 95 games guess what? They’ll have frigging chemistry.
– No mention of Clippard’s mileage, or the fact that HE is regressing too. Look at Clippard’s numbers over the past few years … he’s in decline. Not by much but inarguably so. Do you want to sell on a reliever one year too early or one year too late? Clippard is going to be 30 with declining stuff and a gazillion high leverage innings on his arm, set to make $9M on a team that’s clearly trying to manage its payroll.
– Says Escobar’s hitting has been “mediocre” the past few years. I guess a career OPS+ of 98 is “medicore” coming from a guy who has displayed excellent defensive range at Short during the same span.
– Plays the Desmond sob-story card. Sorry; you rejected a 7/$107M contract that was MORE than fair given your age and your status in this league.
– Clearly over-values the addition that Clippard has on this team. 2014 bWAR: 1.5. 2013 bWAR: 1.8. Blake Treinen had a 1.1 bWAR in 2014 with 50 innings scattered through out the year by way of comparison.
Grrr.
Todd Boss
16 Jan 15 at 9:24 am
Todd, as much as I love reading Boswell, have to agree with you a lot on Desmond.
Desmond was offered $107M, turned it down and then regressed in 2014. At best an average defensive shortop, his offensive metrics don’t hold up at all using any modern analysis.
The Royals showed what happens when you consistently make contact and Desmond doesn’t.
Rizzo is very smart not to up the offer.
Desmond need not worry; some fool club will overpay for him.
Mark L
16 Jan 15 at 10:27 am
Amen Todd.
Andrew R
16 Jan 15 at 10:30 am
C’mon, Todd, tell us how you REALLY feel! I agree, though. In fact, the more I think about the trade, the more I like it. Consider that the Nats were thinking about trading Jordan Zimmermann to fill the 2B/SS future with someone like Odor or Castro. Instead, they did it with Clippard and Souza (to include the Turner long-term part of the picture).
Now, I completely understand the “fan” side of the reaction. Clippard is gone and this move certainly imperils Desmond’s fate (Stark says they’re still shopping him). These are two of the longest-serving Nats, some of the few rays of hope back in the dark, dark days. But good teams have to turn things over and keep looking to the future, which is what I’ve been saying all winter.
And yes, in the churn, sometimes there will be clunkers. But getting on base doesn’t go out of style, and that’s Escobar’s big plus in my eyes. As for the clubhouse side of it, I recall Boswell relating that Madden told him that Soriano was one of his favorite players, despite his reputation. Perhaps Boz needs to remember that and give the new guy the benefit of the doubt.
KW
16 Jan 15 at 11:14 am
Fan side: absolutely agree. Seeing Clippard leave is a total bummer. Long serving guy, well liked by the media … which counts for, what exactly, on the field? Because Clippard is always there ready to answer questions and isn’t a jerk to the media, he’s suddenly an irreplaceable key “chemistry” guy keeping the clubhouse together and this trade will be the death knell to the Nats 2015 chances. Hogwash.
Todd Boss
16 Jan 15 at 12:52 pm
McDaniel’s articles are good reading. He also seems to have a good rapport with most scouts/development folks (probably because he was one). His rankings are heavily influenced by what the various scouts are told. I had the impression that he started off thinking Lopez would be around 4th or 5th, and that Taylor and Cole would be higher, but that after doing his research, he was convinced to switch. opposing scouts loved Lopez and think he has top of the rotation upside (and were bombarding the Nats with offers for him), and that no one outside the Nats org thought Taylor or Cole would be more than role players. Taylor because he won’t hit enough, and Cole because his secondary stuff isn’t good enough, with some questions about his ‘mental toughness’. He did say that the Nats org was very high on both though. The other surprise to me was how high on Fedde he was. He held back the ranking because of the TJ, but implied that assuming a full recovery to his pre-injury stuff, he also could be a top o’ the rotation guy. Seems like there is going to be quite a bit of info to honor this site’s name in the next few years.
He also talked about numerous Dominican guys. Victor Robles seems to be the hot name there. I can’t really follow the guys at such low levels, but it is good to hear some confirmation of our belief that we have a lot brewing down there.
Lastly, on the Clip stuff, I run a little counter to some of the recent posts. There seems to be a feeling that maybe he’s slipping, or due to blow out. I mean, maybe, but I don’t think there is any concrete sign of either, and all things considered, I think he was our best reliever. Barrett and Storen have good stuff, but major questions over their mental approach. Treinen might be fine, but a reliable reliever who can bring strikeouts is very valuable. So while the trade probably does make sense and adds value in the abstract, I do really think he will be missed on the field (like Todd, I tend to ignore chemistry).
Wally
17 Jan 15 at 9:19 am
Good summary of the escobar situation – first for Rays and now for Nats:
http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2014/08/25/was-yunel-escobar-extension-mistake-tampa-bay-rays/
I think he may be better fit for 3rd.
Wasn’t able to find a defensive split to test Rizzo theory that he suffered defensively due to poor carpet in Tropicana. But he was surprisingly much better hitter away (290 batting average vs. 230 at home).
So perhaps there is a case to be made for better performance away from Tropicana. Would be nice to see defensive splits to also support this theory.
Gus
18 Jan 15 at 9:47 am
And now the Scherzer rumors start. 7 years for Miracle Max, and a trade of JZ or Stras.
Have fun storming the castle!
Wally
18 Jan 15 at 7:05 pm
Wow. Just when we thought the Nats were having a pretty boring offseason . . .
Some of the speculation has that the Nats would trade Fister, but they would get more for J-Zim or a whole lot more for Stras. Honestly, I wasn’t excited by the level of return mentioned over the winter for J-Zim, guys like Castro or Odor. Would keeping them all and just going for it be an option? I doubt it, but we can dream.
Oh well, it’s a good thing we have tomorrow off to digest it all!
KW
18 Jan 15 at 8:27 pm
Actually, I might reconsider on Castro, but then they’d also be on the hook to move Desmond.
Here’s the dream deal that comes to mind – Zimmermann goes home to the Brewers, along with Span and perhaps a mid-level prospect, in exchange for Gomez. The Nats flip two of the expiring contracts and then ride out Desmond and Fister.
KW
18 Jan 15 at 8:39 pm
I didn’t pay much attention to these rumors, but with the WaPo guys all over it, I assume it’s legit. I am guessing the contract will be 7/$175m minimum. Hopefully there isn’t an 8th year.
I don’t know if I can even guess as to a dream scenario of follow on moves right now, assuming we get him. I really like the idea of a top guy to front the rotation through the introduction of the Giolito,Cole, Fedde types, so that is good. Why Scherzer over JZ? Well, Scherzer has clearly outperformed him. The guy is the real deal. The only thing JZ has on him is age (1 yr, 10 mo). And that may be meaningful, I dunno. Stras is a little harder to make the case tho: Miracle Max still outperformed him, but Stras has more years on him (younger).
It would be cool to see them keep everyone this year. If there isn’t a core young line up guy coming back, I’d opt for that. And I think I’d keep Desi no matter what. The fall off from to him a replacement is probably three wins (best case). I’d have to be bowled over to absorb that.
Wally
18 Jan 15 at 10:40 pm
Deal isn’t done yet for Scherzer and I’m still skeptical. Feels like a bluff for Boras to get the mystery team to commit and for the Nats to sign J-Zimm. The Nats are always #2 for Boras FA (except Soriano) and I don’t think that changes tonight. If the deal was going to happen, then why aren’t they finishing it tonight? #notbuyingit #willeatcrowifimwrong
Andrew R
18 Jan 15 at 10:43 pm
Andrew – could be, although Svrulga tweeted that he confirmed it with someone at the Nats. I think the only theory where this makes sense is (a) they don’t see JZ as a 1 (he’s been a 3WAR guy his whole career before last year), and (b) Stras won’t extend (and with Boras as the agent for both, that is some good negotiating leverage).
Also could be a lot of reasons it isn’t done tonight. Maybe a vesting option, or player option. Or maybe the Nats are looking to tie down a trade (despite saying they didn’t need to trade anyone).
Wally
18 Jan 15 at 10:56 pm
Maybe JZ and Des aren’t signing because they don’t want to give up FA. My impression is that Rizzo is making offers and JZ/Des are not making counter-offers. I have to think that Rizzo does see JZ as a 1 (he is), but it takes 2 to make a deal.
Andrew R
18 Jan 15 at 11:00 pm
Wow. I expected a loud offseason and have been talking it up here for many weeks, but I did not expect this. Rizzo has balls. And again, right on the heels of a “Lerner is cheap” article in the WashPost. I wonder what the back story is on where the negotiations were earlier last week (an impasse on a seventh year?)
I still think Escobar will never start for the Nats. But now, the flexibility increases. The Nats don;t have to trade any one of their starters. They can trade Zimmerman, and maybe that is the other shoe of the Gallardo dropping of the signing (Zimm to Wisconsin), but they can just as well trade Tanner Roark to a team that wants a controllable pitcher, like Pittsburgh, to get a player of the quality of Neil Walker (I am just wildly speculating), or Fister to the Rockies in a Tulowitzki deal, or Gio Gonzalez to someone like the Red Sox.
What the Scherzer deal does is increase the flexibility with which the Nats can manage their tradeable assets, including their young AAA commodities. That’s pretty exciting stuff, because they are now back to squarely dealing from a position of strength, both in negotiations with JZimm and Desmond and in potential trade partners.
Home teams will overpay. The Brewers will overpay for Zimmerman, and so would the Cubbbies and White Sox. The Padres will overpay for Strasburg, especially because they are trying to be relevant.
I also would not rule out the Nats on signing any of the Cubans. The pieces they move obviously affect their payroll considerations.
Fascinating how they are spending. They would not spend on Kang, but they spent on Scherzer.
What I really like about the Nats course of action is their moving to upgrade the quality of their depth, and with a year in advance of attrition. There is a lot they can still do to upgrade that organizational depth, and let’s see how they do it.
forensicane
19 Jan 15 at 6:19 am
Ted Lerner will turn 90 in October. If I owned this toy and were that age, I’d be all in and going for it. The Post article has some credible hints that the Nats might be keeping everyone. We’ll see. But yes, Rizzo has cojones, and now all the angling all offseason seems to make sense.
Like forensicane, I spent last evening mentally trying to run through potential trade partners and struggled to come up with ones who made sense. I’m sure the new and aggressive Padre management would kill to get its hands on Stras, but who do the Padres have whom we would want? They’ve already flipped everyone of value. If Myers could play CF, maybe, but I think they’ve already determined that he can’t. The other Stras home-area teams would be the rich LA clubs, but again if you start looking at specific pieces in Nat need areas, nothing jumped out at me. Maybe something involving Garrett Richards since you’d have three more years of team control?
I can’t see them getting involved with Tulo because they now really can’t take on another big contract. I can’t see them flipping Gio at all because he has such a team-friendly contract. For Zimmermann, the Cub possibilities have already been covered in detail. White Sox: Eaton as a potential replacement for Span in CF, or maybe Quintana? I don’t think they’d trade Quintana for a one-year rental. (Sale is so untouchable as to not be worth mentioning.) Scooter Gennett from the Brewers would be a nice fit (and LH bat), but they’d probably want more than one year of J-Zim for him.
Or we just roll with one of the best rotations in recent baseball history! Gio might be considered the #5, and he’s a 21-game winner.
All in all, it’s a great day to be a Nats fan!
KW
19 Jan 15 at 7:50 am
Also, whenever the contract details come out, I’ll bet there’s an opt-out, and I’ll bet it is right before Harper hits free agency.
KW
19 Jan 15 at 7:54 am
I think they will trade someone but, as Forensicane said, they don’t have to. Keeping everyone also strengthens the bullpen, which is kind of cool. Roark goes to the long man spot, but also is the 6th starter, freeing up Treinen and Cole for 7th and 8th inning spots.
As for what they get back, it just needs to be a value, not a need. I don’t know what value JZ has in this crazy market place, but in general, OF prospects would be high on my list. And if they do trade Stras to SD, Hunter Renfroe is a power hitting OF as their top prospect, and I think he is good enough to build a package around. Could also pick up a spare OF for the 2015 team as part of it.
Wally
19 Jan 15 at 8:17 am
I wonder if having another pitcher signed for 2016 will loosen the Nats’ grip on Cole in potential trades.
KW
19 Jan 15 at 9:23 am
Pitching is truly the greatest value.
So I think it has to be value plus need because they will be trading value.
Their needs are no different from what they were before. They need a 2B they can win a championship with (quantum better than Escobar), they need a comparable or better replacement for Desi if they have to trade him (which is why I like Tulo), they need left handed premium starting prospects, they need power, power and more power in the upper minors that translates into the majors, they need legitimate replacements at the major leagues should Taylor and Goodwin plateau. Frankly, they need the next Steven Souza. The farm system has a lot of talent, but not enough premium position players.
With that said, Roark as the long man has less value than Roark traded for a high value starting player. Gio has a team friendly contract, OK, but he has not fared well in the postseason. And the team is being constructed to win the WS.
There are superstars in the making who can play excellent defense and have fantastic bat skills with extreme power (Bryant, Gallo) or extreme speed (Turner, Bautista). The Nats have by far the most chips to make multiple deals to acquire that kind of talent. That’s the only kind of talent they should be acquiring, at this point. Blue chippers. Otherwise, don;t make the trades or we are undervaluing our talent.
With that said, that is why I like the already-signed early career Dominicans in the minor leagues. Once they are here a year, one can get a sense of how well they have/will acculturate, and how readily those tools translate into the lower minors. Their big million dollar bonuses were already paid by their organizations. And they are early career enough to be bundled. How many Rey Lopez type position players would you get for a Jordan Zimmerman? That’s value. And a lot cheaper than Cubans and their hype.
But I think the Nats are not done trading and that is why they signed Scherzer.
They know what other deals are lined up already, they waited as they should have (January 19!) and got Scherzer by not panicking and letting the market fall 30 million dollars. When you consider how they handled this relative to the rush on Lester and then, the other pitchers. Stealth all the way. Love that about Rizzo, love that.
forensicane
19 Jan 15 at 10:22 am
I agree with most of that, except maybe Roark. If someone will value him at his numbers, then sure. But I think his trade value will be below that, and people will want to see him do it again. At that point, I’d like him on the team, as an injury hedge for this year and as a rotation piece when some start to leave.
If you want an Addison Russell type, Stras is the only one that can get him, and that’s iffy.
Wally
19 Jan 15 at 11:13 am
Good point from forensicane about the market seemingly coming down $20-30M on Scherzer from the initial demands in the $200-210M range. It helped that the megabucks teams dropped out of the bidding.
As for “now what?,” the Nats got eliminated last year largely because of hitting, not pitching, certainly not starting pitching. But there are not a lot of places where they could plug in hitting improvements. They could replace Span in CF for the longer term, but he was pretty darn good last year and should continue to be in 2015. They could still try for someone better than Escobar at 2B/3B and have Escobar assume the Espy bench role, but there aren’t a lot of guys out there who would improve on Escobar’s career .347 OBP. They can’t improve on Desmond’s offense at SS unless they go after Tulo, which I doubt they’ll do. I guess they could now offer Fister to Billy Beane for Zobrist, but he’d be another expiring contract.
I’m really not excited about the idea of flipping J-Zim or Stras for prospects. This is win-now mode, big-time.
As for the bullpen, K-Rod or Janssen, anyone? Or would that be getting carried away?
KW
19 Jan 15 at 11:17 am
Or maybe it wasn’t a discount – it’s now looking like it will indeed be $210M, but “only” 15M a year spread out over 14 years. Wow, I’m trying to think through all of that. For the short term, it would give the Nats a lot of flexibility, including the flexibility to keep everyone now within the $150M parameter, and perhaps the flexibility to re-sign some of the guys whose contracts are about to be up.
Now long term . . . and Ted Lerner won’t live that long . . . but I don’t think $15M a year in the late 2020s will hamstring the team too much, assuming MLB revenues continue to rise. My first take is that if they’re only paying $15M a year now, this is brilliant. Let’s get Stras hooked up with the same deal.
KW
19 Jan 15 at 12:14 pm
I don’t get the Yunel Escobar hate. He had a crappy season last year, sure. We’ve seen over (Werth) and over (LaRoche) and over (Span) players have atypical bad seasons, often due to injuries, and bounce back to career norm levels or even better. Werth and LaRoche were older than Escobar is now when they bounced back. And yet many assume that for Escobar 2014 is destiny.
I would not expect him to bounce back to his previous 3-4 WAR levels (although that’s possible). But he should be about a 2 WAR player, a solid major league regular. Not an All Star, but certainly a valuable piece. And a lot better than Espinosa, and a fair bit better than Asdrubal Cabrera. For comparison, Fangraphs’ Steamer projection is 2.1 WAR for Escobar, 1.6 for Cabrera … and slightly under 0.6 for Espinosa (the latter normalized to about the same amount of playing time; his page shows a projection of 0.2). And for all the whinging about guys that don’t work the counts, take walks and get on base – Escobar does that.
John C.
19 Jan 15 at 12:34 pm
No hate from my end, John. Just the recognition that if the team has the capacity to upgrade, and offense is the reason the team tanked in the playoffs, 2B remains the position where the greatest degree of upgrade is possible.
Even if Escobar reverts to 2013, that would be the case.
Going around the diamond, Ramos, Rendon, Desmond, Zimmerman, Werth, Span, and Harper. Where is the most obvious upgrade, once Souza has been traded?
forensicane
19 Jan 15 at 1:26 pm
Well, forget all this, there is something even more important.
Someone needs to check on Todd. He must have gotten hit by a stray HRod fastball, and can’t get up. Otherwise he’d be all over this stuff. We need to get 911 on it ASAP
Wally
19 Jan 15 at 2:09 pm
Poor Todd must be trapped on a weekend trip or something and just dying.
I don’t think there’s much upgrade to be had among second basemen; Escobar is as good or better offensively as most of the guys who have been mentioned, aside from Zobrist. I’d like to get my hands on Brian Dozier, but not at the expense of a core piece.
Lots of stuff flying; one story says that J-Zim is staying, while the Brewer trade of Gallardo certainly does make it look like they’ve cleared their decks a bit for a pitching deal. We’ll see.
KW
19 Jan 15 at 4:21 pm
From what I can tell, Nats are mostly getting criticized for the deal. I think people are basically saying it doesn’t improve 2015 too much, since Roark was so good last year, so why spend all that money?
Maybe the deal is stupid, maybe it’s brilliant, time will tell. But that argument seems stupid, to me. It isn’t about 2015, it’s about locking up a top pitcher for 5+ years and extending the window of expected contention. There is a lot that we don’t know: what did they offer Znn? What did Znn signal about willingness to sign (discount anything someone says publicly)? Even better, what is their appraisal of Znn’s true talent level? We may think he is a 1, but they may not and they have shown themselves to be pretty good at evaluating pitching. Did they try to extend Stras, and what was the reaction? And the most exciting unknown of all: what do they do NEXT?
There are only two things I feel pretty certain about: Scherzer is an excellent pitcher, and that kind of contract scares the heck out of me.
Wally
19 Jan 15 at 4:42 pm
1) It’s not our money. Who cares?
2) The Yankees pissed away so much money on bad investments, and even seemingly good ones. They have far greater risk hanging over them than Tanaka. But they also had investments work out, and have the banners to prove it.
3) As for Scherzer, all money aside, is there reason to be UNHAPPY that he has been added? Of course not!
4) Does he upgrade this rotation? of course!
5) The bad reactions are impacted by the idea that in some way this pushes Zimmerman out the door. No. It’s January 19. The team knew exactly what it needed to get Zimmerman and Fister signed. We don’t know what the Nats know.
6) The team decided not to be passive and helpless about 2016 and beyond. Way.To.Go!!!!! They’ll sort it out from a position of strength, not peril.
forensicane
19 Jan 15 at 5:30 pm
Gallardo haul for the Brewers was a good one, and for a noticeably lesser starter. That ought to set the right bar for the Nats in discussions ahead.
forensicane
19 Jan 15 at 5:31 pm
Most of the smarter analysts seem to think it’s a good move. Neyer isn’t as excited but reasonably explains that the deal doesn’t make the Nats THAT much better, since they’re already so good.
Yeah, I know that no $100M contract has ever worked out well. I do love the differed aspect of it, though, which will allow the Nats roster flexibility for the full term. Plus Dave Cameron explains that with all the differed money, the deal will “only” cost the Nats around $170M in today’s dollars.
Sullivan at Fangraphs also has an article about how insane Strasburg’s value would be if the Nats put him on the market now.
Yes, it will be interesting to see what happens next. Even if the answer is “nothing,” it’s hard not to like the team as it stands. And frankly, I might be more excited if the next news is an extension instead of a trade. If Boras would do a similar deal for Stras, let’s get it done. I do think the Nats will extend one among Stras, J-Zim, and Fister. I would have said possibly two before Max, but now I’ll just say one.
Here’s where I see the Nats now as far as trades are concerned: everyone has Rizzo’s number. The Nats need nothing. If you want to do business with us, go big or go home. You’ll have to knock Mike’s socks off to get his attention. He’s got his starter for the future. He’s got his 2B now/bridge SS. He’s got his SS of the future. He’s got the best pitching prospect in baseball and a $17K Dominican who might be nearly as good.
Now all he needs is a ring.
KW
19 Jan 15 at 7:23 pm
*sigh* Ken hit it on the head: I got talked into a last minute weekend trip, I thought we’ be gone a night and we were gone all frigging weekend, I didn’t bring my computer and I had no way to just type up anything. Fitting that the biggest signing in the history of the franchise occurs. I’ll type up some thing tomorrow I guess. I don’t know what I think about the deal right now…
Todd Boss
19 Jan 15 at 8:50 pm
Welcome back Todd. It was a bumpy ride without you 🙂
In that Fangraphs article on Stras’ value was a tweet from some writer that he heard Stras and the Nats both think it time to part ways. I am not putting too much stock in it, but was kicking around some ideas if they do trade him. Two surprise teams came up as unexpected fits. Neither are perceived contenders, but could sorely use a Stras type to lead a bunch of rotation newbies. They each had a young position player and strong farm system.
COL – Arenado, plus Dahl and two lesser guys
MIN – Dozier, plus one of their better pitching prospects like Kohl Stewart, and two lesser prospects
Wally
20 Jan 15 at 7:37 am
Just as a note, I can think of a couple of $100 million contracts that worked out pretty well. Mike Mussina’s deal with the Yankees. Sabathia’s original deal with the Yankees worked out very well – if the Nats had just let Sabathia opt out & leave they’d have done very well. They didn’t, and the resulting extension is looking very rocky.
For non-pitchers, A-Rod’s 10 year/$252M contract actually returned excellent value. Again, it was the extension that look all kinds of horrible.
John C.
21 Jan 15 at 7:14 pm
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/23/sean-doolittle-has-a-slight-rotator-cuff-tear-wont-be-ready-for-opening-day/
… Doolittle (A’s incumbent closer) has a “slight” rotator cuff tear. Which is kind of like saying you’re “slightly” pregnant to a pitcher. Clippard’s acquisition by Oakland makes a lot more sense now. Wonder if this just popped up … or if the team knew.
Todd Boss
23 Jan 15 at 7:46 pm